2013 NFL WEEK 2
2013 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 2 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday September 12th, 2013 8:30pm
NY Jets (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (1-0) (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NYJ+12
LW, QB Geno Smith had a decent 1st gm in the NFL but it was vs a T.B. team that looked like a mess. Smith looked calm & was not afraid to run the ball when he saw an opening as he ran 6x for 47 yds. He threw for 24/38 & 256 yds w/1INT. A supposedly upgraded T.B. DEF made many mistakes & numerous penalties that helped the JETS sustain drives and result into pts. LW, N.E. had to sustain a very late drive to kick a FG w/:05 left to get a 23-21 win @BUFF. A 9 pt FAV & NE was losing the gm most of the 2nd half. Turnovers & dropped passes killed N.E. which made their gm a nail biter. The running game for NE was costly as RB Ridley had a costly FUM that was picked up for a 75yd TD. Looking at the numbers betw N.E. & NYJ, L6 @NE, NE 5-1 SU but 3-3 ATS. Only 2 real blowouts by NE in L6 @ NE. JETS have some newfound momentum because a lot of people are down on them this yr. The spread is big but I worry about NE secondary picking up Geno Smith as he sees open field. NE secondary LY #29. NE not a good cover team @HOME. Since 2002, NE 47-38-3 ATS @ HOME. Just noted, RB Shane Vereen out minimum six weeks & WR Danny Amendola out w/groin injury. JETS can keep this close if they don’t make too many mistakes.
THE PICK: NYJ+12 3 STARS
Sunday September 15th, 2013
St. Louis Rams (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS STL +6 ½
LW, ATL was never out of the gm @N.O. Except for a last minute INT in the endzone, they actually could have won the game. The ATL OFF LINE is a major sticking point in that they need to give QB Matt Ryan time. RB Steven Jackson ran for 77yds and don’t tell me he isn’t looking forward to playing his old team. Matt Ryan is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS vs STL. But coming off a loss, this says that ATL needs to get back on track. STL had a nice comeback win @HOME vs ARZ but it was the CARDS & they didn’t cover. If N.O. has a bounceback yr then ATL has to win games like these with ease. Look for ATL to throw everything at the RAMS.
THE PICK: ATL-6 ½ 3 STARS
Carolina Panthers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS BUFF+3
LW, CAR lost @HOME to SEA 12-7. CAR DEF didn’t give up a TD until 4th qtr. CAR did give up a lot of ground to SEA but didn’t let them score. BUFF should have beaten NE but they showed a lot of OFF weapons w/RBs Spiller & Jackson. There were some dropped balls by BUFF but QB EJ Manuel looked good out there. IN SEPT CAR 7-16 ATS as a FAV. This could be a close gm, take the pts.
THE PICK: BUFF+3 3 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (1-0), (0-0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS MINN+6
LW, RB Peterson started out the game w/a 78 yd run for a td. Other than that run, 15 yds, what’s up? Unfortunately this OFF has to rely on Peterson more because of QB Ponder. But it can’t rely solely on Peterson because QB Ponder was his usual terrible w/3INTS. MINN should have at least kept it close as they always play DET tough. Ponder is terrible, can Cassel be far behind? CHI escaped w/a win LW vs CINNCY. Only 1 turn, an INT from Cutler. CHI problem, OFF LINE but, LW no sacks of Cutler, maybe they’re getting better. Anyway, MINN TERRIBLE ROAD TEAM, haven’t won @CHI since 2007, L6 @CHI, MINN 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS. But here is one sticking point; these 5 CHI wins are all after a loss, which changes the psyche of a team as opposed to coming off a win. Do you get what I’m saying? A sense of urgency if CHI had lost LW vs CINNCY. I’m hoping that HC Tressman knows what he is doing & Ponder can’t figure it out.
THE PICK: CHI-6 5 STARS
Washington Redskins (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ GB Packers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS WASH+7 ½
LW, RGIII did not look like the RGIII that we all know & love. He looked like a pocket passer that could have anyone’s name on the back of his jersey. It’s obvious all those practice reels of RGIII were misleading; he is not 100% as advertised. Anyway, WASHdug themselves a hole they could never recover from, thanks in part to RB Morris & his FUMB lost & being tackled in the endzone. Not only that WASH DEF was shredded by PHILLY, rushing & passing. I don’t think RGIII is ready to be the RGIII we know just yet so the pressure by the PACK TW will be devastating. GB lost a gm @SF that was very tight & they were actually leading in the 4th qtr. But SF has recently become GB’s Achilles heal. TW, they are pissed & are back @HOME. In the L6 yrs these two teams met in 2010 @WASH,WASH winning 16-13 in OT. PACK no mercy on RGIII.
THE PICK: GB-7 ½ 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (1-0) (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS MIA+3
LW, MIA beat @CLEVE, so what. INDY beat OAK @HOME & didn’t cover a big spread. This is a rematch of LY when MIA FAV by 2 ½ @INDY lost 23-20. MIA held INDY to 2TDs but INDY kicked a FG w/5:58 to go to seal it. Tannehill couldn’t rally the troops. Both are coming off wins & this time INDY is the FAV. MIA had #27 PASS DEF LY & Luck is not afraid too throw & run if necessary. LW, MIA had 20 yds rushing @CLEVE, CLEVE! Just out of who is better balanced I have to take INDY.
THE PICK: INDY-3 3 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ KC Chiefs (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS DAL+3
LW, KC beat @JAGS, a big so what! Right nowAlabamacould beatJacksonville. The difference TY is a new coach in Andy Reid & new QB Alex Smith. LW DAL put a lot of pressure on G-MEN OFF. They had 6 turnovers including 3INTS by Eli Manning. But Manning still had 450 yds passing. DBs for DAL need to shore things up. On the other hand HC Reid certainly knows DAL very well having played against them 28x over 14 years. But the key to this gm is getting to QB Alex Smith, if they put pressure on him early & mix things up he will eventually make mistakes. I see this as a close gm & if Romo gets the protection he needs DAL should win. LY, DAL played better on the road than @HOME. Nothing is expected from KC but a lot is expected from DAL.
THE PICK: DAL+3 3 STARS
Cleveland Browns (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CLEVE+6 ½
LW, BALT DEF was picked apart by Peyton, as I said they would. BALT definitely in a down yr but don’t tell their fans or their coach. DBs Huff & Smith were looking like rookies out there against Peyton but not this week. DEF will make adjustments & put a lot of pressure on Weeden. CLEVE has their hands full just making sure Weeden throws passes to his own receivers, 3 INTS. They have no running game except for Richardson. BALT can score points & in a hurry too. BALT 24-15 ATS @HOME in SEPT. L6 BALT @HOME vs CLEVE, BALT 5-1 SU & 2-4 ATS. BUT, 3 of those BALT ATS losses were with spread of 11, 11 ½ & 12. This is doable & BALT needs a big win here.
THE PICK: BALT-6 ½ 5 STARS
Tennessee Titans (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-0) (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS TENN+9
LW, TENNbeat up PITT mentally & physically. The game was never in doubt. PITT is on a downswing, however, HOU is not. LW, HOU was down 28-7 to SD before they woke up. Rivers threw another PICK 6 & HOU came all the way back to win 31-28 but, they did not cover. L6 TENN @ HOU, HOU 3-3 SU but 4-2 ATS. HOU wants to get on track. If HOU has eyes on the SuperBowl they cannot let things like LW happen, playing from behind. QB locker only completed 11 passes LW vs PITT. HOU has to put pressure on Locker so he’ll make mistakes. HOU DEF is solid, maybe another PICK6 for HOU DEF TW. L17 @HOME, HOU 12-5 ATS. HOU regroups & beats up TENN.
THE PICK: HOU-9 3 STARS
San Diego Chargers (0-1) (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS SD+7 ½
LW, SD was leading 28-7 in the 3rd qtr & SD became the Fakers again. They blew the lead & Rivers threw a PICK6. HOU missed covering by a pt but, the inevitable happened, SD lost. PHILLY HC Chip Kelly & QB Vick were relentless @WASH taking a 33-7 lead in the 3rd qtr & never looking back. Last meeting betw these two was 2009, so it’s meaning less but, was last week’s meltdown by SD, same ol’ & is PHILLY for real? PHILLY will be pumped up for their HOME OPENER & west coast teams typically don’t travel well to the east coast. LY, SD 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS vs NFC. If SD wants to win, they have to slow down PHILLY’s tempo but, they may turn out to be the FAKERS. Lay the points & hope HC Kelly & PHILLY were not one hit wonders.
THE PICK: PHILLY-7 ½ 1 STAR
Detroit Lions (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AAY, (0-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS ARZ+1
LW, RB Reggie Bush showed why he’s so important to DET. DET held off MINN& Staffordhad options other than Johnson. ARZ was leading 24-13 @STL & then the roof caved in & lost 27-24. ARZ showed promise & QB Carson Palmer can’t have a FUM & an INT, that won’t cut it. Also, he was sacked 4x. ARZ 12-22 ATS in SEPT, not good. This will be another close gm but DET should hold off ARZ.
THE PICK: DET-1 3 STARS
N.O. Saints (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ T.B. Buccaneers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS T.B.+3 ½
LW, N.O. escaped w/a win vs ATL, they needed it psychologically. 1st gm back for HC sean Payton & N.O. looked good, holding off ATL in the final minute. T.B. couldn’t get anything going @JETS as QB Freeman looked awful. Also, penalties killed T.B. as well as bad play. L6, N.O. @ T.B., N.O. 3-3 SU BUT, 4-2 ATS. Not bad for a dome team. T.B. 3-12-1 ATS as HOME DOG since 2009 but 1-1-1 ATS LY under HC Schiano. The DEF for N.O. is also rejuvenated under DC Rob Ryan so we’ll see how it works. DBs Golson & Revis will be keying on N.O. receivers so N.O. will definitely have to look for other options as well as the run.
THE PICK: N.O.-3 ½ 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS JAGS+5 ½
Terrelle Pryor has been named the starter as he rushed for 112yds @INDY LW & actually completed more passes than Andrew Luck, go figure. QB Luck had to pull out some luck to get the heavily favored Colts a win. LW, QB BlaineGabbert had 15 stitches put into his throwing hand after colliding w/a defenders helmet. Chad Henne gets the start but JAGS looked totally awful @HOME vs KC LW. LY, JAGS 1-7 SU AWAY but, 5-3 ATS. LY, @OAK, OAK won 26-23 OT but, JAGS +4 which I had. Also, this is big, L4 JAGS vs OAK, JAGS 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. Can’t ignore those numbers, JAGS keep it close.
THE PICK: JAGS+5 ½ 3 STARS
Denver Broncos (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ NY Giants (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NYG+4 ½
LW, Peyton threw 7TDs & 0INTS. Don’t think that will happen for a 2nd straight week. If so HC Coughlin will not finish the season. Eli had 4tds but 3INTS incl a PICK6 LW @DAL. This is the 3rd time the brothers play each other. Peyton is 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS vs his little brother and both have admitted that they do not like playing each other. Looking back, that is probably why Eli wanted out of SD on draft day 2004. G-MEN had only 50 yds rushing LW @ DAL while RB David Wilson fumbled 2x. The secondary for G-MEN is weak & they let Romo complete 36 passes. G-MEN resign Brandon Jacobs. Their running game is still a mess. DEN 24-16 ATS AWAY in SEPT. Look for a lot of play action pass vs. GIANTS secondary.
THE PICK: DEN-4 ½ 3 STARS
SF 49ers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS SF+3
LW, SF won a heartfelt game vs G.B. @HOME. SEA won @CAR in a low scoring game. LY, SF won 13-6 @HOME then got blown out @SEA WK 16, 42-13. Harbaugh is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS vs SEA. Both teams want to win the NFC WEST. LY, SEA was 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS @HOME. SEA has gotten so much better & confident, they are different team w/Russell Wilson at the helm. L6 @HOME vs SF, SEA 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS. SEA are a different team @HOME than on the road. They both know how important this gm is & what’s at stake. Edge to SEA.
THE PICK: SEA-3 3 STARS
Monday September 16th, 2013 8:30pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS PITT+7
LW, PITT lost C Pouncey, LB Foote & RB Stephens-Howlings for the season. Also, RB Le’Veon Bell out for a month. They were already banged up & not looking good. They lost big to TENNLW & face a CINNCY team that should have won @CHI. Cinncy was up 21-10 before making some big mistakes & giving up the game. However, CINNCY is making new strides upward & PITT is seriously old & banged up. PITT 14-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. If CINNCY is to win this gm they need to run right at PITT. Some numbers to think about, L6 vs PITT @HOME CINNCY 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS, however, CINNCY was a DOG in all of these. CINNCY is now the FAV & needs to get a win after giving it away in CHI.
THE PICK: CINNCY -7 3 STARS