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2019 NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

2019 NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Sunday January 19th, 2020 3:05pm

(6) Tennessee Titans @ (2) Kansas City Chiefs                 TENN+7 ½

LW, BALT was looking like a team that did not deserve to even be in the playoffs. The BALT DEF didn’t make any stops that were needed and TENN RB Derrick Henry seemed to run at will. Give a lot of credit to the TENN O-LINE which has been doing a nice job opening up some holes for him to run hog wild. The BALT DEF had no answer for Henry & TENN QB Ryan Tannehill just needed to manage the game and not make any mistakes. The TENN DEF played very well also as they forced BALT QB Lamar Jackson to fumble 1x & 2INTS. One of the INTS was not Jackson’s fault as the pass went right off TE Mark Andrews fingers into a waiting S Kevin Byard. TENN was up 14-0 before BALT knew what hit them. BALT never got on track whether it was OFF or DEF. By the 4th qtr the score was 28-6 and BALT was not coming back. The TENN DEF was in control all game and did not allow the BALT OFF to get comfortable. Yeah, BALT stats look great but they were in catchup mode the whole game and the turnovers were huge for BALT. TENN scored 14pts off BALT turnovers and TENN did not commit a turnover. TENN HC Mike Vrabel is a good coach and TENN is playing solid football. They will have their hands full this week. LW, HOU was up 24-0 and lost @KC, 51-31. The turning point of that game was when HOU had 4th & 1 at KC 20something and instead of going for it, kicked a fg for the 24-0 lead. Then KC exploded and HOU HC Bill O’Brien fell back into that crappy coach that he is and it was over. I am completely appalled by the way HOU played after they had the lead at 24-0. O’Brien should be fired. DC Romeo Crennel should be fired too. The DEF for HOU was a total laydown and they played like the game was over. Kudos to KC for never giving up and taking advantage of a team that certainly stopped trying. KC & TENN met in wk 10 @ TENN and TENN won 35-32. KC was up 32-27 with about a 1:30 to go but KC HC Andy Reid (as usual) oversimplified the game and KC ending up losing on a calamity of errors. Reid has been known to over think games and turn what should have been a win, into a loss. For TENN to win, they have to play ball control as they have in the last two playoff games. They need to keep the ball away from KC QB Pat Mahmes and the TENN O-LINE needs to keep opening up holes for RB Derrick Henry to run through. KC is not very good vs the run, KC #26 RUSH DEF, & TENN should take total advantage of it, early and often. If TENN gets down 14-0 early, then the run game goes out of the window. Tannehill will be under pressure to roduce and it’s 50-50 if he could pull the game out if it landed on his shoulders. I like TENN here with the points because no one is giving them a chance and they have the personnel to go against KC. However, they need to take control of this game early. Take TENN here and don’t be surprised if they win outright.

THE PICK: TENN+7 ½                               5 STARS         

Sunday January 19th, 2020 6:40pm

(2) Green Bay Packers @ (1) San Francisco 49ers            GB+7 ½

LW, GB didn’t let SEA get the ball at the end of the game. SEA QB Russell Wilson is notorious for pulling out end of game wins with his ability to scramble and make a great play out of nothing. GB QB Aaron Rodgers mad some 1st downs with his arm and made sure that SEA did not get the ball. A normal coach would have run the ball 3x and hoped for the best but, Rodgers was quoted as saying that he wanted the ball in his hands when it mattered most. He delivered and not only did GB win but, they covered as well. For the most part, GB was in control of this game but let SEA creep back in. You cannot let Wilson think that they have hope because he will exploit it and win. GB didn’t make any mistakes and held on for the 28-23 win. LW, SF was leading 17-10 vs MINN and MINN QB Kirk Cousins threw a crucial INT that turned into 7pts for SF and you could basically turn your sets off there. MINN tried in vain to catch up but scored 0pts in the 2nd half and ended up losing 27-10. SF stopped MINN’s rushing game to 10 carries for 21yds and put it all on Cousins shoulder. SF rushed for 186 yards which kept the MINN DEF guessing for most of the game. This took a lot of pressure off of SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo who only completed 11 of 19 passes for 131 yds. These two teams met in wk 12 n SNF and the game wasn’t even close. SF won 37-8 and it started with the first series for GB. In that series, SF forced Rodgers to fumble which was recovered by SF deep in GB territory. It took two plays and SF already had a 7-0 lead. It was 23-0 before GB found the endzone which was in the 3rd qtr. GB has not had great success vs SF as of late. L7 GB vs SF (incl playoffs), SF 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. GB needs to come at SF with a different game plan because they need to keep the SF DEF guessing. The SF DEF hasn’t had to do much guessing this season because they are a talented bunch. SF #2 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF & #17 RUSH DEF. However, GB needs to get their run game going and complement it with the pass. This will keep the SF DEF guessing. Rodgers knows that father time is creeping up and he may not get more chances like this to get to the SuperBowl. SF can be beat and GB needs to be patient and come at them so that SF is guessing. The GB DEF needs to make plays that create more opportunities for their OFF. I like GB here to keep things close. Usually in 2nd meetings of teams in the same season the game is much closer if the 1st game was a blow out. I like SF to win the game by 3 or 4 pts at the most because this will be a hard fought game and Rodgers will keep it in striking distance. I would be very shocked if it becomes another blowout. Take the points here with GB as SF narrowly wins outright.

THE PICK: GB+7 ½                                    5 STARS