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2019 NFL SUPERBOWL

2019 NFL SUPERBOWL (ATS)              

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 2nd, 2020 at Miami, Florida  6:30 pm

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers                       SF+1 ½

So here we are. KC is in the Superbowl for the 1st time in 50 years and SF is looking for their 1st title in 25 years. But, this game has a resemblance to SB 50 when DEN played CAR and DEN had the #1 TOT DEF. DEN had a great DEF and CAR had a great OFF and a 15-1 regular season record. But, when it was all over it was the DEN DEF that was triumphant and the final score was DEN 24-10. Here, SF has the #2 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF. It has been shown that throughout the NFL a great DEF usually triumphs a good OFF. SF was an inch away from becoming the #5 seed instead of the #1 seed in the NFC thanks to that last game @SEA. But they were able to hold on and easily beat MINN & GB in the playoffs to get to the SuperBowl. KC has had a little tougher road as they were down 24-0 @HOME to HOU before they woke up and went on a scoring rampage to win 51-31. The following week they gave TENN a lead but ended up winning that game in a blowout as well. There is a battle of TEs here. You have SF TE George Kittle & KC TE Travis Kelce. Both are worthy of ALL-PRO status and will probably look to make their mark in this game. I can do without all of Kelce’s celebrating every time he makes a catch. Both of these guys are crucial to their team’s success even though Kelce wasn’t a factor vs TENN in the Championship game because he was double-covered. I would give the edge to Kittle because he is more reliable and even keeled. Both are important to their team’s success but I think Kittle will have a bigger game because KC has other dependable OFF weapons that they can turn to. Kittle is a bigger part of the SF OFF than Kelce is to KC OFF. There is also the battle of QBs. KC Pat Mahomes seems to be a guy that is not fazed by big games. He relishes it and plays well as he has taken KC deep into the playoffs his first two full seasons. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo is in his first full season with SF after being injured for most of 2019 with a knee injury. There are times when Jimmy G has looked mortal but he has had a great DEF and a very good rushing game to fall back on. He hasn’t had to throw much in the playoffs and KC will probably try to make him throw more by stopping the SF rush OFF. There is also the battle of HCs. KC HC Andy Reid has been a HC a long time in the NFL with no SuperBowl wins and only one appearance. He is the sentimental favorite. SF HC Kyle Shanahan is the son of longtime HC Mike Shanahan. Kyle was the OC of the ATL team that lost to NE in SuperBowl 51. Reid has a lot more experience as a HC but Shanahan is just as qualified having served many years as an assistant. They both bring different game plans into this game but Reid has been known to over prepare for games and turn what seemed like a won game into a lost game. SF DE Dee Ford who was traded by KC after last season to SF has some legitimate reasons for being up for this game against his old team. Look for him to make some extra plays vs KC. The KC DEF which in past years was pretty bad has gotten better this year under DC Steve Spagnuolo. The KC DEF went from #31 in 2018 to #17 in 2019, a marked improvement. KC DE-LB Terrell Suggs who was picked up late in the season after being waived by ARZ gives something extra to a DEF that has gotten better throughout this season. S Tyrann Mathieu who came over from HOU in the off season led KC in INTs and became ALL-PRO. But let’s not forget about SF CB Richard Sherman who has been here before and is a very vocal leader and contributor on a secondary that has stopped opposing OFFs in their tracks. Just when you think a certain play may be coming, look for a trick play that hasn’t been used to catch the opposing team by surprise. PHILLY did it a couple of years ago and both these teams may try something similar if the situation calls for it. A lot of people are saying that this game may be high scoring but a like it on the lower side because the DEFs don’t give up much. This will be an exciting game but I have to give the edge to SF because of their DEF. SF should win by three points in a game that will be going down to the wire. Enjoy the game!

THE PICK: SF+1 ½                                     5 STARS

 

SEE YOU NEXT SEASON!