2019 NFL WEEK 10
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 10 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 7th, 2019 8:20pm
LA Chargers (4-5), (3-6) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (4-4), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS OAK+1
LW, LAC @HOME really took it to GB. LAC was pitching a 19-0 shutout before GB finally got on the board with a fg. The DEF for LAC was so strong the OFF for GB never got situated. GB QB Aaron Rodgers seemed to be rushed by the LAC DEF all day. He was sacked 3x and his passes seemed hurried. The O-LINE for GB was not protecting Rodgers well and he could not set up in the pocket like he wanted. LAC DE Joey Bosa had 4 QB hits & 1.5 sacks and seemed to be Rodgers’s face all day. The DEF for LAC finally played a formidable game this season vs a worthy opponent. LAC RB Melvin Gordon also finally looked like the ALL-STAR from last season as he rushed for 80 yds & 2 td while catching 3 passes for 29 yards. LAC was dominating GB on both sides of the ball. LAC QB Philip Rivers played a good game with 0turnovers and distributed the ball to 6 different receivers. LAC was 5-11 on 3rd down which helped keep drives going and ball control away from Rodgers & CO. The score was 26-3 late in the 4th qtr when GB scored their 1st td which was too little too late. LAC completely dominated this game and the score reflected it, 26-11. LW, OAK @HOME beat DET in a game that came down to the final seconds of the game. I knew this game would be a shootout because both DEFs were pretty bad. As I predicted OAK RB Josh Jacobs had a pretty god day, 28 rushes for 120 yds & 2TDS. This in turn took a lot of pressure off of QB Derek Carr and he delivered going 20-31, 289 yds 2TDS & 0INTS. Carr was also able to distribute the ball to 8 different receivers. Stafford threw for 406 yds & 3tds. But he threw a pass that was intercepted in the endzone by CB Daryl Worley who made a great play. Had DET scored there the momentum & the game could have easily gone the other way. L12 LAC @OAK, LAC 8-4 SU & 7-4 ATS 1NL. L22 LAC vs OAK, ROAD 12-8-1 ATS 1NL. L19 LAC vs OAK, DOG 13-4-1 ATS 1 NL. LAC 25-27 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 34-19-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 24-24 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 3-12 ATS L15 before KC. LAC 8-3 ATS on TNF. LAC 4-2 ATS AWAY on TNF. LAC 6-3 ATS as AFCE WEST on TNF. LAC 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. OAK 7-10-1 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. OAK 3-7-1 ATS 1NL L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. OAK 34-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. OAK 21-33-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. OAK 30-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. OAK 3-7 ATS vs AFC WEST on TNF. OAK 0-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. OAK 3-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. OAK 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU win vs opp off DD ATS win. What worries me for OAK is that DET went up and down the field without having a true running game. LAC #16 TOT OFF vs OAK #27 TOT DEF. LAC has a more balance attack with RBS Melvin Gordon & Austin Ekeler. This will keep the young OAK DEF guessing and guessing wrong. In 2019 on TNF the trend seems to be that the ROAD TEAM & the DOGS are doing all the winning. ROAD is 6-3 SUATS. The DOGS are 7-2 ATS. In 2018 the trend was HOME was 12-3 SUATS. FAV was 12-3 ATS. Both of these teams are coming off nice wins. But LAC’s win is more impressive because they dominated a good GB team. Key to LAC win. They must stop RB Josh Jacobs and put it all on Derek Carr’s shoulders. The key for OAK is putting pressure on Philip Rivers because he will make mistakes. However, LAC has something to play for here and the trend has been the ROAD team on TNF. LAC has a more balanced attack and their DEF is much better. Lay the point here as LAC should roll.
THE PICK: LAC-1 5 STARS
Sunday November 10th, 2019 1:00pm
Detroit Lions (3-4-1), (4-4) ATS, (1-2-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-5), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS DET+2 ½
LW, DET played @OAK & gave it their best shot but lost. It was an INT in the endzone thrown by DET QB Matt Stafford that changed the momentum of the game. But it also came down to the last play of the game where DET could have tied it but fell short. That’s how close the game was. However, I liked OAK vs DET because the DEF for DET is terrible and I knew that OAK would give it their all. DET #31 TOT DEF. It was a shootout and OAK won as I thought. But, DET DEF has to make some stops. I said this LW, DET HC Matt Patricia is supposed to be a DEF guru having been the DC @NE for many years and that team always had a DEF that made plays. Maybe these players are not buying into the program. The DET DEF was #30 LW, now #31, pitiful. LW, CHI was playing catchup @PHILLY all game. PHILLY was leading 19-0 when CHI woke up with 2TDS but PHILLY managed a fg to put the game away at 22-14. PHILLY rushed for 146 yds vs CHI. Suddenly the CHI DEF is susceptible to the run. In 2018 CHI #1 RUSH DEF, in 2019 CHI #8 RUSH DEF. They may still be in the top ten but they have been getting beat. It seems that teams are running right at DE Khalil Mack. He hasn’t lost anything but guys around him are not picking up the slack. Any of the CHI stats for this game are overblown because they were ramped up in garbage time and catchup. CHI RB David Montgomery only had 40 yards rushing and that was after he scored 2TDS. The problem is CHI QB Mitch Trubisky. There is not a lot of confidence in him and it seems that his mechanics are not that solid. L12 DET @ CHI. CHI 7-5 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. L18 DET VS CHI, DET 9-7-2 ATS. L20 DET vs CHI, HOME 12-6-2 ATS. DET 5-10-1 ATS 1NL L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. DET 18-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 25-45 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 26-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 9-6 ATS AWAY off non-conf gms. DET 6-0 ATS as a RD <6pts w/revenge. CHI 28-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 27-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 24-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 vs opp off SU loss w/revenge. CHI is on a 4game losing streak and this is a divisional game. Key for DET is stopping the CHI RUN game with RB David Montgomery and putting it all on QB Mitch Trubisky. If DET can get some kind of running game going vs CHI, they will win this game big time because then they will not have to depend on the arm of Stafford as usual. It should be noted that DET rushed for 90 yards vs OAK which is big because OAK #7 RUSH DEF. If DET can establish some kind of running game here then DET WRs Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones will have big days. DET #3 PASS vs CHI #14 PASS DEF. This game has the makings of a shootout because Stafford is very familiar with the CHI DEF. The CHI DEF has lost something in the transition from Vic Fangio who was the DC in CHI in 2018 to this year’s DC who is Chuck Pagano. Both of these teams have major holes in positions and but CHI has certainly regressed from 2018. Can DET take advantage of it? Both of these teams are coming off some losses but DET right now is better but, not much better. Take the points here because it may be a very close game.
Due to DET QB Matt Stafford being ruled out of this game about an hour ago 10:00 am EST, due to fractuered bones in his back and QB Jeff Driskel staring in his place the line has moved to DET-6 1/2. I have changed my pick due to this recent information.
THE PICK: CHI-6 1/2 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (6-2), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-0-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-8), (3-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS CINNCY+10
LW, BALT @HOME beat up NE. But there was one play that changed the game and the momentum for BALT. With BALT leading 17-13 and NE driving with their 1st possession of the 2nd half, NE WR Julian Edelman uncharacteristically fumbled the ball away and CB Marlon Humphrey scooped it up and ran 70 yards for a BALT td. Instead of the score being NE 20-17, it was now BALT 24-13. NE then scored to make it BALT 24-20 but it was over. However, BALT rushed over NE for 210 yards & QB Lamar Jackson rushed for 2TDS himself. BALT did play a great game and won 37-20. BALT was up for the challenge. BALT #2 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF. CINNCY is coming off a bye. CINNCY 6-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, they were in London playing LAR. It was a mismatch but LAR was sluggish and CINNCY QB Andy Dalton was 32-52 & 329 yards but, CINNCY lost 24-10. Well, Dalton has been benched and it could mean the end for him in CINNCY. QB Ryan Finley gets his 1st NFL start vs BALT #15 TOT DEF. Finley can’t do any worse or could he? He’s a 4th rounder so it could be another Dak Prescott with happy feet. The DEF for CINNCY has been atrocious. CINNCY #32 TOT DEF w/ #22 PASS DEF & #32 RUSH DEF. BALT should rush over these guys like the Road Runner. L12 BALT @CINNCY, CINNCY 9-3 SUATS. L21 BALT vs CINNCY, CINNCY 14-5-1 ATS 1NL. L17 BALT vs CINNCY, FAV 8-7-1 ATS 1NL. BALT 35-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 29-24 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 30-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 6-6-1 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. BALT BALT 2-10 ATS in gms 9-12 off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. CINNCY 4-4 ATS L8 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 25-28 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 41-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 30-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 1-10 ATS vs .600>opp. CINNCY 1-7 ATS as a div HD 4>pts. CINNCY 3-11 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 0-4 ATS L4 with rest. These two teams met in OCT and CINNCY kept it close like I knew they would but, they didn’t win. This time BALT is revved up and they should tee off on the new QB. S Earl Thomas & CB Marcus Peters will certainly bait the new QB into thinking that guys are open when they are really not. BALT has had problems in CINNCY with QB Joe Flacco at the helm in the past. It was like a jinx and Flacco couldn’t get past it. But with Jackson at the helm it should be lights out and scoring at will. This game has blowout written all over it. CINNCY is starting a new QB and BALT is on a high having just beat NE. BALT has to keep it going because they know they will face a different NE team in the playoffs but, for now they need to roll over CINNCY. CINNCY can’t do too much right and their DEF will not stop the Lamar Jackson Express. Lay the points here as BALT should win by 2TDS, minimum.
THE PICK: BALT-10 5 STARS
Buffalo Bills (6-2), (5-3) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-6), (2-6) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS BUFF+3
CLEVE is a mess and BUFF is winning but CLEVE is listed as the FAV? CLEVE can’t do anything right and CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is way over his head on this one. Don’t be surprised if he is fired and might not finish the season. What was CLEVE thinking with this guy? Also, CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL with INTS and he seems so lost at times that he complicates matters worse. Than you have players that are more concerned about their designer cleats than playing the game. If you take away RB Nick Chubb & DE Myles Garrett from this team, they would be completely hopeless. There is certainly no discipline on this team as they can’t even tackle anyone either. DEN made mincemeat of this team with a QB that never played an NFL down. It was a winnable game for CLEVE but they looked lost and Mayfield made more bad decisions that took away any chance CLEVE had of winning the game. BUF did win their game 24-9 @HOME vs WASH and did cover but, they let WASH RB Adrian Peterson tear them a new one. He rushed for 108 yards on just 18 carries. If WASH had used him more the score would have been a lot closer. You could make the claim that BFF hasn’t beaten anyone and they really haven’t. They won @NYJ, @NYG, CINNCY, @TENN, MIA, & WASH. They lost vs NE & PHILLY. BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/ #3 PASS DEF & #19 RUSH DEF vs CLEVE #19 TOT OFF. Look for BUFF to run the ball behind RBs Frank Gore & Devin Singletary. BUFF #11 RUSH OFF vs CLEVE #30 RUSH DEF. DEN rushed for 127 yards behind RBs Phillip Lindsay & Royce Freeman. L9 BUFF vs CLEVE, BUFF 5-4 SUATS. BUFF 7-8 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. BUFF 6-10 ATS in 1st of BB Rg’s vs non-div opp. BUFF 28-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BUFF 23-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 11-2 ATS as a DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 8-12 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 7-0 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <.500 opp. BUFF 11-1 as a ROAD DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 5-1 ATS L6 before MIA. BUFF 2-9 ATS L11 as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. CLEVE 9-6-1 ATS L16 in 1st of BB HG’s. CLEVE 12-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 9-12 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 6-0 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEVE 6-0 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEVE 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME FAV. CLEVE 3-21 ATS in gms 9-12 off SUATS loss vs opp off a HOME gm. CLEVE 3-21 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs opp off non-div gm. CLEVE 9-25 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs AFC opp. This is a total winnable game for BUFF and the fact hat they are getting points is almost ridiculous. BUFF just has to stop 2guys, DE Myles Garrett & RB Nick Chubb. When Mayfield sees the pressure that the BUFF DEF will put on him, he will fold like a house of cards. Chubb will get his yards but Mayfield has no one to guide him so he will make more bad decisions here and give the game to BUFF. Take the points here s BUFF does what they are good at which is, beating bad teams and CLEVE can’t get it together, again.
THE PICK: BUFF+3 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (5-3), (5-2-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ GB Packers (7-2), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS CAR+5
LW, CAR took it to TENN. CAR RB Christian McCaffrey had another game where he went hog wild. He is a one-man wrecking crew and so far no team has been able to stop him. For CAR that’s good news because without him in the backfield CAR would certainly be one-dimensional. Also, its official, QB Cam Newton was put on IR because of his foot and will not be playing for CAR in 2019. He also may be with another team in 2020 if Kyle Allen continues to improve his game. He has been leading this team very well with only one BIG loss this season. That loss was @SF 51-13. The PASS DEF has been doing the job for CAR with 12 INTS. CAR #9 PASS DEF. The secondary likes to bait QBs and 6 different guys have combined for that total. The DEF also has 34 sacks which leads the NFL. LW, GB got their bell rung @LAC 26-11. It wasn’t even as close as the score projects because GB scored their TD & 2pt conversion when the game was seriously out of reach for GB in the 4th qtr. GB QB Aaron Rodgers was under siege all game by the LAC D-LINE and could not set up in the pocket like he normally does vs other teams. GB could not even run the ball as they managed a meager 45 yards rushing between 2RBS & Rodgers. Also, LAC sacked Rodgers 3x. This was a complete surprise because LAC has not dominated any game or any other team in quite some time. GB was coming off that nice win @KC and they should have continued that roll into LA. The only good thing to come out of it was that WR Davante Adams has seemed to have recovered from his painful turf toe that sidelined him for four games. L8 CAR vs GB, 4-4 SUATS. CAR 25-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 22-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 15-12-1 ATS L28 off a DD SU win. CAR 4-6 ATS L10 before ATL. GB 33-26 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 27-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 1-8 ATS @HOME after scoring 14<pts vs non-div opp. GB 11-2 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. GB 13-2 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV off non-div vs opp off SU win. GB 9-1 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. I like GB to recover and win this game but not cover the spread. CAR is a tough team and even though it may seem that RB Christian McCaffrey is the only weapon that stands out for CAR, Kyle Allen is smart enough to look for ther playmakers. The GB DEF has gotten soft since the first three weeks of the season and they are susceptible to the big play. Could GB be thinking about their bye? GB 3-8-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. Yeah GB wins here but it will be a tighter game than advertised because Allen wants to show CAR that they made the right choice with him. In recent years, GB has lost some games in GB that everyone thought they should win. This might be one of those games.
THE PICK: CAR+5 5 STARS
KC Chiefs (6-3), (4-5) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS TENN+3 ½
LW, KC won a game they needed to win. KC QB Matt Moore showed that he’s reliable and can get the job done. The KC DEF made some stops vs MINN at the end of the game which gave the ball back to KC a couple of times. This in turn gave KC the chance to kick a couple of fgs to win a game that they were losing 23-20. KC won 26-23. But I would say that it was a combination of two things. Yes the KC DEF came up big when they needed it and MINN’s play calling was suspect when they needed to sustain a drive. Had MINN called the right plays and caught the KC DEF off guard, they would have won the game. You have to be aggressive if you want to win. But KC did go toe to toe with MINN and the game did come down to the wire. LW, TENN was outmatched @CAR. CAR was certainly winning that game on a bounceback blowout loss the week before @SF. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill came back down to earth after two good games. He threw 2INTS and was sacked 4x by CAR. CAR RB Christian McCaffrey ran hog wild vs TENN 24x for 146 yds & 1TD. He also caught 3 passes for 20 yds & 1TD. TENN was down in this game 17-0 and played catchup the whole game never catching up and eventually losing 30-20. TENN Going into a bye week should give time for guys to recuperate. TENN 6-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. A big loss in the game for TENN, CB Malcolm Butler broke his wrist in the game and is now on IR. TENN re-signed CB Tye Smith. L6 KC vs TENN, 3-3 SUATS BUT, ROAD 5-1 SUATS. KC 7-5 ATS L12 in 1st of BB RG’s. KC 27-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 28-42 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 11-8 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. KC 11-4-1 ATS L15 AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. KC 13-4 ATS L17 as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 5-2 ATS L7 before LAC. KC 1-7 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> as a FAV vs opp off AWAY gm. TENN 27-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 21-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 8-5 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. TENN 3-13 ATS L16 @HOME vs AFC WEST. TENN 2-9 ATS in gms 9-12 off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. TENN 8-0 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. KC QB Pat Mahomes is still Questionable for this game with that dislocated kneecap and I’m sure that a decision will be made closer to game time but, either way right now, no matter who is the QB KC is winning this game. How is TENN going to stop the OFF firepower of KC? KC #6 TOT OFF vs TENN #13 TOT DEF. Lay the points here as KC rolls because TENN is just not up to the task and the TENN DEF will not be able to handle what the KC OFF throws at them. TENN hasn’t played an OFF as good as this yet and all of a sudden the KC DEF has a pulse. It doesn’t look good for a TENN team that is looking to bounceback.
THE PICK: KC-3 ½ 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (1-7), (1-7) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ NO Saints (7-1), (6-2) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS ATL+13
Both of these teams are coming off byes. NO 9-3 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. ATL 8-4 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. However, these teams are going in opposite directions. So far NO hasn’t skipped a beat going from Brees as QB to Bridgewater back to Brees. Before their bye, NO @HOME took care of ARZ no problem as the NO held ARZ to 3fgs. NO sacked ARZ QBs 4x and held them to 40 yds rushing. Of course that was before RB Kenyon Drake was picked up by ARZ. I doubt it would have made a difference vs NO DEF. Brees looked like he hadn’t missed a beat, throwing 34-43 for 373 yds & 3TDS. NO won 31-9. It was 10-6 at halftime and then NO exploded in the 2nd half. Before their bye, ATL@HOME lost to SEA, 27-20. The final score looks close but it really doesn’t tell the whole story. SEA was leading this game 24-0 before ATL got back in the game and SEA played a preventive DEF. ATL QB Matt Ryan was out and Matt Shaub was in for this game. The OFF stats for ATL look great for this game but it was all in catchup and garbage time. The ATL DEF has been terrible all season. The only reason ATL won one game is because PHILLY WR Nelson Agholar dropped a sure td pass. He was wide open and probably got too giggly and dropped the ball. Otherwise ATL is winless. ATL #24 TOT DEF w/#23 PASS DEF & # 21 RUSH DEF. They are last in the NFL, #32 with 7 sacks. CB Desmond Trufant comes back after missing three games with a toe injury and he is the only one with any INTS on the team, he has 2. ATL has no run game either and relies strictly on the pass. ATL #29 RUSH OFF vs NO #4 RUSH DEF. This means that opposing teams can set their DEF and tee off on Matt Ryan. ATL QBs have been sacked 21x Also, why ATL traded WR Mohamed Sanu is beyond me because he was a reliable receiver and good safety option for Ryan. You can’t always go to WR Julio Jones on every play. They should have made some trades on DEF because it is obvious that they are NOT getting it done. ATL HC Dan (not so mighty) Quinn is on a very ht seat and you can guarantee that changes will be made in the off season. Quinn may be gone along with whole coaching staff. A revamped DEF is in order too. LB/DE Vic Beasely has 11 ½ sacks in 38 games since the 2016. In 2016 he had 15 ½ sacks. Where have you been? L12 NO(H) vs ATL, NO 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS. L17 NO vs ATL, NO 11-6 ATS. L16 NO vs ATL, HOME 10-6 ATS. L12 ATL vs NO, DOG 9-3 ATS. NO 34-26 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 29-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 30-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 8-7 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. ATL 31-23-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 27-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 26-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 10-4 ATS L14 when a DOG 8>pts. NO has to make sure that their pass coverage is solid and that Ryan can’t dump the ball off and that he can’t get confident in the pocket. NO DEF has to make a statement early that this game is theirs. This game has the makings of a blowout. Brees should pick this team apart. The DEF should pounce on Matt Ryan or Matt Shaub and it shouldn’t really matter who is the QB for ATL. Also, look for NO TE Jared Cook who is back from an injured ankle to help attack the ATL DEF. NO DEF will be the difference in this game and if NO gets a big lead early they cannot let ATL crawl their way back in it. NO hasn’t any games yet that have been laughers. They usually have one of those and it’s usually vs ATL. Lay the points here as NO should send a message to ATL.
THE PICK: NO-13 3 STARS
NY Giants (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ NY Jets (1-7), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS NYJ+2
LW @MIA, the NYJ looked like a team in complete disarray. I liked MIA in this game because MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had a bone to pick with NYJ and he came through like I thought he would. NYJ HC Adam Gase is a terrible coach and there is no veteran QB or leadership behind QB Sam Darnold to give him any advice. Hence, Darnold keeps making the same mistakes and regressing. MIA completely outplayed NYJ on both sides of the ball. To make matters worse, RB Le’Veon Bell may have injured his knee and is having an MRI on it to determine if anything was damaged. He is questionable for this game. On MNF, NYG played valiantly vs DAL in the 1st half and looked like they might have a chance vs DAL in the 2nd half. However, in reality QB Daniel Jones is making mistakes that cannot be ignored. He has 9 lost fumbles in 2019 which leads the NFL. He must learn to hold onto the ball better. In this game he 1INT & 2 lost fumbles. Also, the NYG DEF couldn’t stop DAL RB Ezekial Elliot who rushed 23x for 139 yards. For DAL, this in turn took a lot of pressure off of QB Dak Prescott who was able to tear the NYG secondary apart. On the NYG OFF, RB Saquon Barkley did more damage catching the ball than rushing with it. He will have a monster game this week. L3 NYG vs NYJ, NYG 2-1 SUATS. NYG 5-3 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. NYG 25-53 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 30-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYG 6-4-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 2-9 ATS L11 after allowing 35>pts. NYG 3-12 ATS L15 after allowing 35>pts. NYG 1-5 ATS as a FAV before bye week. NYG 11-4 ATS after DIV HOME GAME. NYG 5-8 ATS L13 vs <.400 opp. NYG 1-10 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 30-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 28-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 4-9 ATS L13 off an SU FAV loss. NYJ 3-14 ATS off SU DIV loss vs non-div opp. One guy who may have a bone to pick with NYJ is DT Leonard Williams. Don’t be surprised if this guy has a monster game against his former team. NYJ discarded Williams and he should be up for this game. NYG is better team than NYJ and both teams are coming off losses. NYG WR Sterling Sheperd may be coming out of concussion protocol so, that may be another weapon for Jones. NYG is going into their bye and they could probably use a week to regroup. NYG 5-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. This game would have meant something more if both teams were doing better but right now, NYG are a little better coached than NYJ. That is not saying much because both coaching staffs are not that good. QB Daniel Jones is playing better than QB Sam Darnold. Darnold can’t seem to read the DEF. NYG DEF should tee up on him. If RB Le’Veon Bell is not in the game, Darnold will be in trouble. NYJ #32 TOT OFF vs NYG #28 TOT DEF. Lay the two points here as this game could be a shootout because neither DEF is outstanding but NYG will come out on top. Also, don’t be surprised if NYG wins in a blowout. Their OFF is better aligned than the NYJ OFF and has better weapons.
THE PICK: NYG-2 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ TB Bucs (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS ARZ+4 ½
LW on TNF, ARZ @HOME gave SF a run for their money. SF was a heavy FAV @-10 @ARZ. SF was up 21-7 at the half and it looked like SF would cruise to a nice victory. Well SF didn’t put a nail in the coffin and let ARZ think they had a shot. With the score SF 28-17 and about 5:00 minutes to go in the game, ARZ scored late on an 88 yard catch & run reception by WR Andy Isabella, that made the score closer than it should have been, SF 28-25. Newly acquired ARZ RB Kenyon Drake was unstoppable and rushed for 110 yds on 15 touches & 1td while catching 4 passes for 52 yards. ARZ rushed for 153 yards total and collectively as a team had no turnovers. ARZ QB Kyler Murray had a decent game, 17/24 241 yards, 2TDS, 0INTS. But yet ARZ fell short on the OFF led by Jimmy G. LW, TB took SEA as far as they could and ended up losing in OT. TB was up on SEA @SEA 21-7 but SEA came storming back. TB WR Mike Evans was unstoppable with 12 receptions for 180 yds & 1TD. TB QB Jameis Winston had a decent game spreading the ball around to eight different receivers but did have a fumble that resulted in 3pts for SEA. TB DEF did have 11hits on SEA QB Russell Wilson and 3sacks. TB 3-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. This game is a battle of the ugly. Plus, TB HC Bruce Arians knows a thing or two about some of the players on the ARZ team. L6 TB vs ARZ, ARZ 4-2 SUATS. ARZ 6-6 ATS L12 in 1st of BB RG’s. ARZ 27-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 38-45 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 4-9 ATS L13 after SF. ARZ 15-7 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 6-1 ATS L7 as a DOG >4pts vs <500 opp. ARZ 11-2-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 10-0 ATS after BB SUATS losses vs 700< opp. RZ 1-7 ATS before SF. TB 6-7 ATS 1NL L14 in 1st of BB HG’s. TB 31-24 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 24-20 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 12-25-2 ATS L29 as a HOME FAV. TB 2-5 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s vs non-div opp. TB 05 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. ARZ QB Kyler Murray needs to use the QB run option a lot in this game to keep TB DEF guessing. TB #1 RUSH DEF. But so what, when you’re 2-6. ARZ needs to make sure that WR Mike Evans doesn’t beat them. He can single handily beat anyone and catches everything in his range. This is a battle of the ugly because neither one of these teams has won pretty so far. ARZ beaten three bad teams and TB has actually beaten two good teams, CAR & ALR. TB has more upside right now but somehow can’t get out of their own way. TB as a FAV in 2019, 0-2 ATS. They haven’t played well as a FAV, only when they are a DOG and with nothing to lose. Both teams are desperate for a win and I like ARZ with points because this game could go down to a fg. Take the points here as ARZ should be well rested and this game will be closer than advertised.
THE PICK: ARZ+4 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 10th, 2019 4:00pm
Miami Dolphins (1-7), (4-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS MIA+10 ½
LW, MIA did what they haven’t done which is win a game in 2019. MIA played a good game @HOME vs NYJ. They did what they had to do but it cost them dearly. WR Preston Williams who caught 5 passes for 72 yards & 2TDS tore the ACL in his right knee so he’s out for the season. MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played a very good game going 24-36, 288 yards, 3TDS, 0INTS, 0fumbles. MIA led this game from the 2nd qtr and never looked back. NYJ hung around but couldn’t do anything because the MIA DEF actually played well sacking NYJ QB Sam Darnold 3x & intercepting him 1x. Hence MIA is riding high right now. LW @PITT, INDY QB Jacoby Brissett went down with a left knee injury and Brian Hoyer stepped in. He threw a 96 yd PICK6 to PITT CB Minkah Fitzpatrick but other than that INDY was still in it. However, sure footed K Adam Vinatieri missed what would have been a winning fg at the end of the game. The kick wasn’t even close. He also missed an extra point that was crucial in this game. Vintieri has not been his usual reliable self this season and it could mark the end of his career. His 70.6% fg percentage is the lowest of his career and certainly cost INDY this game. Right now QB Jacoby Brissett is questionable for this game but could get better before game time and start. In the meantime, reliable INDY RB Marlon Mack will probably look to run wild over MIA. He should have 150 yds rushing and at least 3TDS in this game. INDY #9 RUSH OFF vs MIA #31 RUSH DEF. In this game INDY can only beat themselves. They are in a race with HOU in the AFC SOUTH and every game means something. L6 INDY vs MIA, INDY 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS. INDY 8-2-1 ATS L11 in 1st of BB HG’s. INDY 29-20-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 26-35-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 1-7 ATS L8 before JAGS. INDY 10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. MIA 36-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 32-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 17-11 ATS L28 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 11-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. MIA 11-2 ATS in gms 9-12 AWAY off div gm vs .500>opp. If Brian Hoyer starts, all he has to do is play calm because he knows the MIA DEF from having backed up Brady @NE. MIA is stripped down and INDY is a better team than NYJ. INDY WR TY Hilton is still out but there are others on this team that need to step up. INDY WR Parris Campbell is also out after having surgery to repair his hand. INDY is on a bounceback here and they should be pissed because they should have won the game LW @PITT. This is a game where I don’t see any mercy by INDY and they score at will after a little let down by MIA after they got their 1st win. Lay the points here as INDY bounces back and rolls.
THE PICK: INDY-10 ½ 5 STARS
LA Rams (5-3), (5-2-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-0-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS PITT+3 ½
LW, PITT won a nice game @HOME vs INDY. However, INDY missed a fg at the end of the game that would have won it for INDY and led to a PUSH for PITT. PITT did play good DEF and CB Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted a Brian Hoyer pass and returned it 96yds for a TD. It was his 4th INT since coming over from MIA after wk 2. He leads PITT in INTs. Even though INDY QB Jacoby Brissett was injured and Brian Hoyer came in, the PITT DEF wasn’t that exceptional. Hoyer was pretty good for a guy who hasn’t played in a while except, for that INT & 1 lost fumble. Had INDY had their kicking game in order it certainly would have been a loss for PITT. PITT RB Trey Edmunds carried the load for PITT with 12 carries for 73 yards. RB James Connor is still questionable for this game with his shoulder. PITT DEF did sack INDY QBS 5x. PITT LBs Bud Dupree & TJ Watt have been beating down the doors lately with disrupting opposing O-LINEs & a combined 13 ½ sacks. LAR O-LINE be warned. LAR is coming off a bye. LAR 10-1-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, LAR were in London beating up CINNCY. The spread was thirteen and LAR won by fourteen. CINNCY had nothing to lose and they played their hearts out. LAR was a little sluggish but, they should be well rested for this game. LAR WR Brandin Cooks suffered a second concussion and is day to day for return. LB Clay Matthews who suffered a broken jaw in the game @SEA is on the practice field this week for LAR. We’ll see how he responds. L3 PITT vs LAR, PITT 3-0 SUATS. LAR 8-8-1 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 25-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 20-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 4-13 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 6-1 ATS w/rest off SU win. PITT 3-3-1 ATS L7 as a HOME DOG. PITT 21-15 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 29-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 14-1 ATS L15 as a DOG vs >.500 opp. PITT is on a 3 game win streak and in the last game INDY beat themselves. Beating MIA was n big deal especially after PITT gave MIA a 14-0 lead to start. LAR needs to come out with a strong run game so that the passing game will open up. PITT may be pumped but LAR has been there. For the LAR DEF, they need to put pressure on PITT QB Mason Rudolph. When this guy gets pressured, he makes mistakes. LAR DEF needs to sack him 4x to rattle him. LAR has to stop the run so that it is all on Rudolph’s shoulders. LAR QB Jared Goff cannot make mistakes and must take what the PITT DEF gives him. LAR OFF needs to take advantage of a sometimes lax secondary. LAR #10 TOT OFF vs PITT #10 TOT DEF. LAR RB Todd Gurley has not had a 100-yard game this season yet and we are all waiting for that game. Is this that game? The LAR O-LINE will have their hands full in this one. Lay the points here as LAR wins by a td, no more.
THE PICK: LAR-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 10th, 2019 8:20pm
Minnesota Vikings (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS MINN+3
LW, MINN was in a very tough game @KC. KC was w/o QB Pat Mahomes but, QB Matt Moore has filled in nicely. However, MINN was actually leading 23-20 in the 4th qtr but couldn’t seem to get their OFF going to sustain one more drive to win the game. KC kicked a fg to tie the game and then another with :00 on the clock to win the game 26-23. MINN WR Adam Thielen had to leave the game because of that hamstring that has been bothering him recently. MINN RB Dalvin Cook only rushed 21x for 71 yards but he needs to touch the ball more for MINN to be successful. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had a decent game going 19/38 for 220 yards, 3TDS & 0INTS. But, with a successful run game, Cousins will find the open man and have better numbers. With the score MINN 23-20, MINN could not take significant time off the clock or get some first downs and then watched KC kick 2fgs to win it. MINN had this game won and should be kicking themselves. On MNF, for the 1st half it looked like NYG had the DAL number. DAL looked sluggish in the 1st half from what looked like a bye hangover. The score was DAL 13-12 and NYG was only trailing because of a missed extra points. But in the 2nd half, DAL poured on some RB Ezekial Elliott and started to take control of the game. Elliott ended up with 139 yds on 23 carries. But, it was in the 4th qtr that DAL exploded vs NYG for 21 points for a 37-18 win. DAL held NYG OFF to 1TD & 4fgs. Plus, the DAL DEF created 2 fumbles by NYG QB Daniel Jones & 1INT. Dak Prescott had a good game because Elliott took a lot of pressure off of him by rushing well. DAL #1 TOT OFF w/#4 PASS OFF & #4 RUSH OFF vs MINN #7 TOT DEF. NYG DEF didn’t sack Prescott 1x which helped. The NYG secondary had no answers for the some of the big plays that the DAL OFF executed for big gains and tds. L5 MINN vs DAL, MINN 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS. MINN 9-3 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB RG’s. MINN 27-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 28-20 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 20-12-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 16-8 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 6-10 ATS AWAY on SNF. MINN 6-8 ATS as a DOG on SNF. DAL 42-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 44-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 15-11-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 0-10-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs .666>conf opp. DAL 0-7 ATS @HOME after MNF. DAL 2-7 ATS after NYG. I like MINN in the bounceback because they are 2-0 SUATS after their other two losses in 2019. They are playing better as a group. If WR Adam Thielen plays in this game it will make things tougher for the DAL DEF. They should be pumped for this game because they had the game @KC & let it slip away. DAL ended up blowing out NYG and there is usually a letdown after a blowout win. So you have a team on a bounceback vs a team off a blowout win. Who wins? I’ll take MINN with the points here as DAL may be a little overconfident. However, this will be a good game and Cousins is certainly earning his money. Look for RB Dalvin Cook to be more involved. MINN #3 RUSH OFF. Key for MINN DEF, stopping Ezekial Elliott. This could be a low scoring game because the MINN DEF does not give up a lot of points.
THE PICK: MINN+3 3 STARS
Monday November 11th, 2019 8:15pm
Seattle Seahawks (7-2), (4-5) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ SF 49ers (8-0), (5-3) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS SEA+6
LW on TNF, SF was a heavy FAV @-10 @ARZ. SF was up 21-7 at the half and it looked like SF would cruise to a nice victory. Well SF didn’t put a nail in the coffin and let ARZ think they had a shot. With the score SF 28-17 and about 5:00 minutes to go in the game, ARZ scored late on an 88 yard catch & run reception by WR Andy Isabella, that made the score closer than it should have been, SF 28-25. Yes, SF QB Jimmy G had a nice game but the DEF for SF was sloppy to say the least. SF DEF let newly acquired ARZ RB Kenyon Drake rush for 110 yds on 15 touches & 1td while catching 4 passes for 52 yards. ARZ rushed for 153 yards total and collectively had no turnovers. LW, SEA @HOME was in a shootout with TB. TB was actually winning this game 21-7 in the 2nd qtr when SEA finally woke up. TB had a 4th & 5 very late in the game and SEA let TB QB Jameis Winston scramble for a 1st down. Also, SEA DEF had no answer for TB WR Mike Evans who lit up the secondary with 12 catches for 180 yds & 1td. TB secondary had no answers for WRs Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf. Lockett had 13 catches for 152 yds & 2TDS & Metcalf had 6 catches for 123 yards & 1TD. Add recently acquired & ready to go WR Josh Gordon from NE and SF secondary will have its hands full. This game went into OT and it should have never gotten that far. SEA DEF at the beginning of this game was asleep and SEA had to crawl its way back. SEA 3-1 ATS off SU OT win. Also, SEA is going into their bye which is well deserved. SEA 9-3 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. SF has only beaten LAR & CAR that are >.500. All their other wins were vs .500< teams. L12 SEA @SF, SEA 6-6 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. L14 SEA vs SF, SEA 10-3-1 ATS. SEA HC Pete Carroll @SF, 4-4 ATS. SEA 25-23 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 23-19 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 24-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 9-5 ATS on MNF. SEA 1-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. SEA 7-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SEA 6-6-1 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. SF 24-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 30-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 19-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 13-2 ATS L15 on MNF. SF 19-8 ATS L27 as a HOME FAV on MNF. SF 3-9 ATS L12 before ARZ. SF 1-11 ATS L12 off SU DIV ROAD win. SF 4-12 ATS w/rest(Thrs, bye). SF 5-1 ATS L6 @HOME off SU DV RD win. SF 0-8 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs .500> opp off SU win w/revenge. SF 8-0 ATS on MNF vs .333> opp. This is a big battle in the NFC WEST because it could be for a playoff spot and SF hasn’t lost yet. If SF wins, they distance themselves from LAR & SEA. If they lose this game the race for a playoff spot gets tighter and probably will come down to face to face competition. SF has a nice running game, SF #2 RUSH vs SEA #13 RUSH DEF. SEA has to be wary of the OFF. SEA has to use a balanced attack on OFF vs the SF DEF. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. This is a big test for Russell Wilson & CO. Also the SEA PASS DEF has to do a better job and put pressure on Jimmy G. SEA #28 PASS DEF. I really don’t see a blowout by either team and I see it being either a shootout or a low scoring game but closer than the spread suggests. Take the points here.
THE PICK: SEA+6 5 STARS