2019 NFL WEEK 11
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 14th, 2019 8:20pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4), (5-2-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (3-6), (2-6-1) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-3-1) ATS PITT+3
First off, I’m a little dumfounded by this spread. LW, PITT DEF manhandled LAR in PITT. The PITT DEF sacked LAR QB Jared Goff 4x, intercepted 3 passes (2 from Goff & 1 from P Johnny Hekker on a fake punt), held the LAR OFF to 0TDS and held LAR rushing game to 88 yds. Where was LAR’s high powered OFF? The DEF for PITT was like the old PITT DEF, dominating. LAR OFF couldn’t get comfortable and get going to score anything. LAR OFF was held to a fg. PITT CB Minkah Fitzpatrick had another fine game with an INT & a fumble recovery and return for a td. The PITT OFF did what they had to do because the LAR DEF was stingy themselves and DE Dante Fowler recovered a fumble and returned it for a td early in the game. PITT QB Mason Rudolph was rushed all game and was sacked 3x but he did not turn the ball over. He has been getting better as the season has been progressing. The running game for PITT was questionable with 42 yards rushing as RB James Connor sat out another game with his injured shoulder. Connor is probable for this game and it would take a lot of pressure off of Rudolph if PITT had some kind of respectable running game. Maybe PITT can get it going this week. CLEVE #27 RUSH DEF. It was a messy game for both sides and it was a tight game with PITT winning, 17-12. LW, CLEVE @HOME beat BUFF 19-16. BUFF missed a fg at the end of the game that would have tied it and sent the game to OT. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield played a good game going 26-28 238 yds, 2TDS, 0INTS, 0fumbles and was only sacked 2x. Baker also led a nice drive which led to a 7 yard TD pass to WR Rashard Higgins with 1:44 to play. This td won the game for CLEVE. CLEVE RB Nick Chubb rushed for 116 yards on 20 carries. BUFF DEF did stop CLEVE on eight straight plays at the 1yard line but all was in the 1st qtr with a lot more game to play. CLEVE made plays when they needed them most and BUFF DEF couldn’t stop them. CLEVE will certainly have a tougher time this week against a reborn PITT team. PITT has their eyes on a wild card spot after being left for dead after a 1-4 start. PITT 4-0-1 ATS as a DOG in 2019. PITT seems to relish the DOG status. L12 PITT @CLEVE, PITT 8-3-1 SU but 5-7 ATS. L24 PITT vs CLEVE, DOG 12-11-1 ATS. PITT 5-8 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. PITT 29-15 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 22-15 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 30-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 10-14 ATS L24 before CINNCY. PITT 3-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. PITT 1-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. PITT 12-2 ATS in gms 9-12 vs <.500 div opp off SU win. CLEVE 2-14 ATS L16 in 2nd of BB HG’s. CLEVE 13-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 9-12-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 13-21 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CLEVE 6-2 ATS on TNF. CLEVE 2-1 ATS as a FAV on TNF. CLEVE 0-6-1 ATS as a DIV HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEVE 2-12 ATS L14 off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEVE 18-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME FAV. CLEVE 3-21-1 ATS @HOME in gms 9-12 vs opp off non-div gm. CLEVE 9-25-1 ATS in gms 9-12 vs AFC opp. The DEF for PITT has gotten a lot better since the beginning of the season and LBs Bud Dupree & TJ Watt have been unstoppable on both of the outsides. Both have a combined 15.5 sacks. CB Minkah Fitzpatrick has 5INTS, 1TD & 1 fumble return for a td since coming over from MIA after wk 2. PITT #12 TOT DEF w/ #12 PASS DEF & #16 RUSH DEF. Baker Mayfield had a good game but he is not consistent. The PITT DEF will swarm this guy into mistakes and PITT will take full advantage of them. To me, PITT getting points here is a gift and I will certainly take advantage of it. The trend on TNF in 2019 has been DOGS 8-2 ATS. In 2018, the trend was FAVS 12-3 ATS. Take PITT here as they roll.
THE PICK: PITT+3 5 STARS
Sunday November 17th, 2019 1:00pm
Dallas Cowboys (5-4), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-5-1), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS DET+3 ½
On SNF, I loved MINN beating DAL. It was my pick of the week because I felt MINN was the better team and somehow DAL would find a way to lose. DAL QB Dak Prescott had one of his best games but MINN stopped RB Ezekial Elliott cold. In the end, it wasn’t Dak or Zeke that lost this game, it was the suspect play calling late in the game by, you guessed it, HC Jason Garrett that lost the game for DAL. LW, DET was without QB Matt Stafford and they still were knocking on the door @CHI with QB Jeff Driskel, who? It came down to the last play of the game and DET had a chance to tie the game but came up a little short. Even if Stafford plays this week, DAL is on a bounceback and competing for the NFC EAST with PHILLY. DET #30 TOT DEF w/DET #28 PASS DEF & #26 RUSH DEF vs DAL #1 TOT OFF w/#3 PASS OFF & #5 RUSH OFF. DAL has been very inconsistent this season and if they want to go deep into the playoffs they need to start playing better vs better teams. They have beaten NYG 2x, WASH & MIA, so what! They were impressive vs PHILLY but so far have lost @NO, GB, @NYJ & MINN. Losing to NYJ is unacceptable. DET has no DEF to speak about & DET HC Matt Patricia is supposed to be a DEF guru. Yeah we know he was the DC @NE but DET DEF is atrocious. They give up points at will. Maybe guys aren’t buying into the program. That’s been the problem in DET as long as Stafford has been the QB. Anyway, DAL should take care of business in a big way here. DET WRS Marvin Jones & Kenny Golladay will see their touches but the rest of them will be just running around. L9 DAL vs DET, DAL 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS. DAL 45-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 25-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 15-9-1 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. DET 9-14-1 ATS L24 as HOME DOG. DET 33-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 25-46 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET DET 16-21-1 ATS (H) vs non-div. DET 12-1 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. DET 2-17 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME DOG. This is a game that DAL has to win and win big to get all their mechanics working. On top of that the DAL DEF has to make some stops and turnovers. DET has really no run game as their RBS rushed for a total of 61 yards on 22 carries. DAL needs to blow somebody out and this could be the game. DAL on a bounceback with DET just looking to hold on. DAL is the better team here. Lay the points here as DAL gets back on track.
THE PICK: DAL- 3 ½ 5 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (4-5), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (5-4), (5-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS JAGS+3
JAGS are coming off a bye. JAGS 8-3-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they were destroyed by HOU in London 26-3. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew had 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles that contributed heavily to the loss. QB Nick Foles will be starting this game for JAGS. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette needs to have a good game here so that Foles can get back to being comfortable in the position. LW, INDY lost @HOME to MIA. Brian Hoyer was the QB for INDY and he was terrible as usual. Jacoby Brisett will be back for INDY as the starting QB. He had a knee sprain and Hoyer showed everyone why he is a backup. But, in his defense, WRs TY Hilton & Paris Campbell were both out and they are both expected to be out this week as well. On DEF for INDY CB Pierre Desir is questionable with a hamstring injury. L12 JAGS @INDY, JAGS 4-8 SU but 8-3-1 ATS. L24 JAGS vs INDY, ROAD 14-9-1 ATS. L19 JAGS vs INDY, FAV 11-6-1 ATS 1 PICK’EM. JAGS 6-10 ATS L16 in 1st of BB RG’s. JAGS 23-21 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 33-25-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 20-21-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. JAGS 8-2-1 ATS w/rest. JAGS 8-0 ATS w/rest vs <.600 opp. INDY 4-7 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB HG’s. INDY 29-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 23-20-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. INDY 26-36-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 4-1 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 10-8-1 ATS L19 as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV vs div opp. INDY 10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. Considering that INDY has a lot of guys out and banged up, you have to like the JAGS in this one. JAGS need a good bounceback game and INDY is right for the pickings. JAGS need to make sure that INDY RB Marlon Mack doesn’t go hog wild and run all over the place. Put it on Brisett’s shoulders and have him make decisions and throws. Both of these teams have top 10 running games. INDY #9 RUSH OFF & JAGS #10 RUSH OFF. This game has the strong possibility to be a low scoring affair with a lot of rushing attempts and it coming down to the wire. Turnovers will be huge in this game. Take the points here and Foles & CO should have a good game.
THE PICK: JAGS+3 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (6-3), (5-3-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-0-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (2-7), (5-4) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS MIA+6
Believe it or not MIA is on two game winning streak. They beat NYJ and LW they beat INDY @INDY. Considering INDY had QB Brian Hoyer instead of Jacoby Brissett it still was impressive because MIA has a roster of nobodies. MIA stunned INDY who was on a bounceback after losing @PITT the week before. But they have their own problems. MIA will still get a high draft pick because they will lose a certain amount of their games but, will fight until the end. LW, BUF was a dud. They lost @CLEVE 19-16. BUFF DEF which is supposedly rated high made Baker Mayfield look like Tom Brady. They are showing everyone that their record is inflated and that they can’t beat anyone decent. BUFF let CLEVE rush for 147 yds including 116 from CLEVE RB Nick Chubb and let Mayfield throw 2TDS while only sacking him 2x. Then BUFF let CLEVE go down the field on a let drive and score a winning TD. Nice DEF BUFF! Meanwhile BUFF rushed for a measley 84 yards which included 28 yds & 2tds by it QB Josh Allen. Who has BUFF beaten? They have beaten @NYJ, @NYG, CINNCY, TENN, MIA, & WASH. All so whats except for maybe TENN which will soon disappoint their fans & everyone else soon enough. L12 MIA (H) vs BUFF, MIA 7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS. L21 MIA vs BUFF, BUFF 11-9 ATS 1NL. L17 MIA vs BUFF, HOME 9-7 ATS 1 NL. L24 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 13-10 ATS 1 NL. MIA 18-10-1 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. MIA 19-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. MIA 32-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 33-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 9-3 ATS @HOME with DIV revenge. MIA 12-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. BUFF 5-2 ATS L7 as a RAOD FAV. BUFF 10-4-1 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. BUFF 22-27-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 26-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 23-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 12-7 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 6-0 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 5-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. BUFF 19-4 ATS in gms 9-12 vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. BUFF is on a bounceback but MIA is pumped. MIA will win this game outright because of two factors. First the BUFF DEF is severely overrated and second, MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not afraid to run and make decisions. He is on borrowed time anyway, he might as well enjoy it. Take the points here as MIA gets revenge for the first meeting earlier in the season @BUFF where BUFF didn’t even cover the big spread. If BUFF wins here it will not be by much, maybe a fg at most.
THE PICK: MIA+6 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (3-6), (5-4) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS DEN+10 ½
LW, MINN went to DAL and beat them like I knew they would. The DEF held up for MINN and put it all on Dak Prescott’s shoulders. The MINN DEF stopped the run but Prescott had a great game. Fortunately MINN made the stops necessary late in the game to win the game. MINN #13 TOT DEF. The DEF has 29 sacks & 9 INTS and everyone contributes. CB Trae Wayans who missed the DAL game with a bad ankle is probable for this game. I loved that MINN was getting points and that was my PICK of the week. MINN QB Kirk Cousins is certainly playing well and earning his money. He should be considered in the MVP conversation as his numbers are very good this season, 18TDS & 3INTS. Plus, he hasn’t had a fumble in the last five games. However, without WR Adam Thielen the MINN OFF is not as potent as it is with him. He is doubtful for this week with that hamstring that has been keeping him sidelined. RB Dalvin Cook has been having a very successful season and is leading the NFL in rushing. This has certainly taken a lot of pressure off of Cousins who doesn’t have to do it all alone. Backup RB Alexander Mattison has filled in nicely giving Cooks needed rest but also getting decent yardage when in the lineup. For MINN, it has been a team effort on both sides of the ball. DEN is coming off a bye. DEN 8-4 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. But before that they beat CLEVE @HOME. In that game, DEN QB Brandon Allen had a decent game and DEN rushed for 127 yards & 1td but, it was CLEVE. TE Noah Fant & WR Cortalnd Sutton combined for 171 yds & 2tds. CLEVE missed 3 tackles on a pass that Fant caught and he raced into the endzone. I don’t think that will happen this week. MINN DEF has to bum rush Allen so that he makes mistakes. MINN has the talent on DEF to do that. MINN can’t be looking ahead to their bye until after the game. No let down. MINN 10-2 ATS since 2007 wk before the bye. Cousins needs to keep the momentum going. L3 MI(NN vs DEN, DEN 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. MINN 34-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 32-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 2-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs .500> opp. DEN 11-6 ATS L17 in 1st of BB RG’s. DEN 32-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 22-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 5-8 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 1-7 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650> opp. DEN 12-2 ATS in gms 9-12 as a ROAD DOG vs .500> opp. The MINN O-LINE has been doing a better job than in the past. Cousins has only been sacked 17x in 10 games. Take away the 6x vs CHI earlier in the season and you have 11 sacks in nine games, not bad. The O-LINE for MINN will have their hands full this week with DE DeMarcus Walker, 4.0 sacks, LB Von Miller, 4.0 sacks & DE Derek Wolfe, 5.0 sacks. MINN is playing for playoff position and they have GB to contend with. They need to keep winning and winning big to keep that momentum going. Beating DAL probably changed people’s minds a little but you can’t lay down to your competition and play down to DEN. You need to thrash them and keep the momentum going. MINN cannot take DEN for granted like they took BUFF for granted last season. That game put a bad mindset into a team that was a play shy of going to the NFC Championship game the season before. MINN has to create some turnovers in this game and take advantage of those turnovers with points. Lay the points here as there is no MINN letdown.
THE PICK: MINN-10 ½ 5 STARS
NO Saints (7-2), (6-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ TB Bucs (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS TB+5 ½
LW, NO @HOME had their heads handed to them on a silver platter by an ATL team that had nothing to lose and played like their lives depended on it. NO managed 3fgs & Drew Brees was sacked 6x. The run game for NO was held to 52 yards with 0TDS. NO didn’t turn the ball over but ATL capitalized on every opportunity they had. NO will regroup and move on. NO hit a speed bump on their way to going deep into the playoffs. LW, TB @HOME barely beat ARZ. This was a game where the scoring went back and forth all game and TB needed a drive late in the game with a td to win the game. TB QB Jameis Winston was 30-48, 358 yards, 1TD, 2INTS & was sacked 4x. The game between ARZ & TB was a scoring affair and neither team could really stop the other team’s OFF. It was only due to OFF incompetence that either team was stopped from scoring further. TB itself does not due a good job at keeping the other team off the scoreboard. They give up an average of 31pts a game. TB has beaten some good teams @CAR & @LAR. But, they have lost to SF, NYG, @NO, CAR, @TENN & @SEA. This game is a rematch of wk 5 when NO beat TB @NO 31-24. TB was coming off the win @LAR and I thought that momentum would carry over but, it didn’t. L12 TB(H) vs NO, TB 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS. L13 TB vs NO, HOME 8-5 ATS. NO 10-14 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. NO 34-27 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 37-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 30-16 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 2-9 ATS L11 as a DIV ROAD FAV 2>pts. NO 4-9 ATS L13 before CAR. NO 1-6 ATS as a DIV ROAD FAV 3>pts. TB 12-15-2 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. TB 6-7-1 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB HG’s. TB 24-33-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 31-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 20-29 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. TB 7-1 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 & as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. TB is feeling pretty god right now but, they just beat an ARZ team that is just learning about itself and is making a number of mistakes. Now they face a pissed off NO team coming off a HOME loss. NO hasn’t lost two straight since the beginning of the 2017 season. The DEF for NO which played sloppy vs ATL last week, will certainly look to improve and not let Winston get comfortable in the pocket. CB Marshon Lattimore injured his hamstring vs ATL & will be out multiple weeks. The secondary for NO needs to create some INTS. They have 4INTS as a group & S Marcus Williams has three of them. NO will look to do everything right and I don’t know if TB will be able to stop them. NO has to get their high powered OFF going from the opening minute. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-5 ½ 5 STARS
NY Jets (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Washington Redskins (1-8), (3-6) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (1-3) ATS NYJ+1 ½
LW, NYJ surprised a lot of people with their OFF & DEF. They held NYG RB Saquon Barkley to 1yd on 13 carries. Yeah, that’s not a misprint. NYJ SS Jamal Adams had a strip sack for a TD and one other sack. This guy was all over the place vs NYG. NYJ QB Sam Darnold had 0turnovers which helped his team greatly. The run game still needs improvement but was able to score 2tds on the ground. NYG were actually leading this game 27-21 in the 3rd qtr but could do nothing more to secure the win. NYG punted four straight times. They ended up losing 34-27. Darnold was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers but will be without TE Chris Herndon who suffered broken ribs in the game vs NYG and will be out several weeks. WASH is coming off a bye. WASH 3-9 ATS since 2007 wk after a bye. It’s been a disaster for WASH as well this season. They are on their 2nd HC & 3rd QB. Rookie QB Dwayne Haskins has been given the starting reigns for the rest of the season and the only direction he can go is up. He hasn’t started out well but, in his defense he didn’t go through training camp as the #1 either. He didn’t get that first team practice that is so needed before the season for learning & preparation. Plus, the WASH DEF can’t stop anyone. Yes, they held SF to 9pts and MINN to 19 pts. But, vs SF it was in a rain storm and MINN was just not connecting and taking WASH for granted. WASH RB Adrian Peterson has had spurts and has played well in the last four games. But NYJ DEF will be waiting. L3 NYJ vs WASH, NYJ 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. NYJ 25-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 31-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 5-12 ATS L17 as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. WASH 14-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 24-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 6-7 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH 6-3 ATS as a non-conf FAV. WASH 4-0 ATS L4 as a non-conf FAV vs opp off ATS win. Neither one of these teams has dome anything right this season. But, NYJ are very good vs the run. NYJ #2 RUSH DEF. By stopping WASH RB Adrian Peterson it will be all on the shoulders of Haskins and I do not think he has adjusted yet to the pro game. The NYJ OFF should have a field day here. WASH #21 TOT DEF. NYJ looking at a 2game winning streak and could actually have something positive to talk about for a change. RB Le’Veon Bell has been doing a lot of head shaking and we are all waiting for him to have a breakout game. He has sore ribs from the game vs NYG but is probable for this game and I would like to see his old self, running through everyone and everything on the field. This guy has to be more involved in the OFF if NYJ are to win. This game is almost a PICK’EM but I like NYJ to win outright. Hopefully Darnold doesn’t see any ghosts and gets the job done like he did vs DAL.
THE PICK: NYJ+1 ½ 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (2-7), (2-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (5-4), (5-3-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-1-1) ATS ATL+5
LW, ATL played their best game of 2019. Before the game they had a total of seven sacks all season. In this game, the DEF for ATL recorded six sacks of Drew Brees. The ATL DEF held NO to 3fgs and won 26-9 @NO. Where has this DEF been all season? LB Vic Beasely showed up with 1.5 sacks & DT Grady Jarrett who had 3.0 sacks all season had 2.5 sacks vs ATL. NO had problems all day and really couldn’t get a decent drive together. The coverage by the ATL secondary was very good when it came to stopping NO from getting into the endzone. LW, CAR was a bout ½ inch short of at least getting what could have been a tying TD. At the end of the game GB was leading 24-16 and CAR had the ball 1st & goal at the GB 2yard line. GB stopped RB Christian McCaffrey from getting in the endzone. I liked CAR +5 because I felt CAR would keep it close and I thought they would. I also felt GB would win but not cover. I was hoping for the TD and not the 2pt conversion. I guess it was too much to ask for. Anyway, it’s QB Kyle Allen’s team for now because QB Cam Newton will not be back this season for CAR. However, in this game, Kyle did have 1INT & 1 lost fumble. He bounced back from the last loss which was a blowout @SF so I expect him to bounceback here. L12 CAR (H) vs ATL, CAR 6-6 SUATS. L16 CAR vs ATL, HOME 11-5 ATS. L14 ATL vs CAR, DOG 7-7 ATS. CAR 34-22 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 27-18 AST as a FAV in NOV. CAR 20-17 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 13-3 ATS L16 @HOME off an SUATS loss. CAR 10-3 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 9-2 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs opp off DD SU win. CAR 9-1 ATS @HOME off SUATS vs non-div opp. CAR 10-1 ATS as a HOME FAV 3>pts vs opp off DD SU win. CAR 2-9 ATS as a DIV FAV off non-div gm. ATL 7-8 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. ATL 32-23-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 28-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 27-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 1-11 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 & off div gm vs opp off SU loss. ATL 8-1 ATS L9 as a DOG off SU DOG win. CAR is on a bounceback @HOME and ATL shocked the world LW. There will be a little bit of a laid down by ATL because in reality they are just not that good. They played with their backs against the wall and NO may have taken them for granted but there will be some changes for this team in the off season. But ATL RB Devonta Freeman suffered a foot injury and will definitely be out this week vs CAR. He joins RB Ito Smith who is out. RB Brian Hill who carried the ball 20x for 61 yads vs NO will get the call. TE Austin Hooper is also out because he sustained a sprained MCL. He is a safety net for QB Matt Ryan. CAR has to make sure that this guy doesn’t turn into a star. CAR #29 RUSH DEF & #11 PASS DEF. The DEF has to come up big for CAR. ATL has some guys out which will hurt and CAR must take advantage. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CAR-5 5 STARS
Houston Texans (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (7-2), (5-3-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (1-3) ATS HOU+4
LW, BALT really teed off on CINNCY @CINNCY. The score was 28-3 in the 2nd qtr and BALT was just getting started. Turn your sets off there. Final score, BALT 49-13. Two of the BALT TDS were from direct turnovers. An INT return and a fumble return both TDS. BALT has been on a big roll and the DEF has played a big part too. BALT #14 TOT DEF. BALT QB Lamar Jackson has been exciting to watch as he is fast approaching the record for rushing yards by a QB. They have a so-so schedule going forward but the goal is to stay on track and stay healthy for the playoffs. HOU is coming off a bye. HOU 7-5 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they thrashed JAGS in London. JAGS usually play well in London but JAGS QB Gardner Minshew had a meltdown with 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles. HOU took advantage and won 26-3. HOU RB Carlos Hyde rushed for 160 yards on 19 carries and a combined HOU rushed for 216 yards. It seemed that the JAGS had no answers and couldn’t stop HOU. HOU QB Deshaun Watson played flawlessly only missing on six passes and had no turnovers. HOU had a nice impressive win in beating @KC but lost to NO, CAR & INDY. They also have beaten JAGS 2x, LAC, ATL & OAK. But BALT is at another level. HOU has to beat teams on a higher level to be considered better. HOU does have a nice run game too with RB Hyde so this game may be won on the ground. However, HOU #4 RUSH OFF vs BALT #8 RUSH DEF. BALT has certainly bettered their DEF by adding S Earl Thomas & CB Marcus Peters. Both have paid nice dividends. Peters has 2INTS for TDS & Thomas has 2INTS as well. L8 BALT vs HOU, BALT 6-2 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. BALT 32-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 36-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 7-0 ATS @HOME off DIV GM vs .500>opp. HOU 21-11-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 23-17-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 4-0 ATS L4 AWAY vs AFC NORTH. HOU 0-6 ATS L6 vs .750>opp. HOU 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> vs .500> off SU win. Certainly, BALT DEF will be blanketing Watson’s #1 WR, DeAndre Hopkins. They will make him look for other alternatives or smother him into making mistakes. HOU HC Bill O’Brien is not very good at adapting to change or being aggressive. If BALT comes out fast and strong, HOU may be lost for answers. The stat to watch: BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs HOU #3 RUSH DEF. How does the HOU DEF handle BALT RUSH OFF without DE JJ WATT? DE Whitney Mercilus may see double coverage to open up the running game for BALT. Who will step up? HOU will probably be expecting Jackson to run a lot but BALT has capable RBs in Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards. BALT has seemingly played better on the road than at HOME. BALT needs to play this game with a playoff atmosphere. BALT may see HOU in the playoffs and they need to send a message to them that they are on a different level. Lay the points here as BALT rolls.
THE PICK: BALT-4 5 STARS
Sunday November 17th, 2019 4:00pm
Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1), (7-3) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (8-1), (5-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS ARZ+11 ½
LW, ARZ gave all they could @TB but still lost. However, they were getting 4 ½ pts and I felt that after giving SF a run for their money on TNF, ARZ would be well rested and ready to go out at TB. ARZ was and the game was closer than the spread. TB QB Jameis Winston led a drive at the end of the game that was the winner for TB. ARZ tried a desperate drive but fell way short. ARZ has been playing games close as their ATS record of 7-3 suggests. ARZ QB Kyler Murray has been getting better as the season has been progressing and he is making better decisions with the ball. ARZ is going into a bye and could use the rest. ARZ 7-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ARZ CB Patrick Peterson injured his calf and left the game and right now is questionable for this game. RB Kenyon Drake needs another good game here. On MNF, SF lost in OT @HOME to SEA. SF 3-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. I liked SEA in that game but SEA could have won it in regulation but made a few mistakes of their own. SF missed a winning fg in OT as this game got a little sloppy for both sides as the game wound up in OT. SF QB Jimmy G didn’t look as confident as in the past when he didn’t have his go to guys in the lineup. TE George Kittle was out with injuries to his left knee & ankle. He is questionable for this game. SF WR Emmanuel Sanders left the game with a rib injury and is also questionable for this game. L12 ARZ @ SF, ARZ 5-7 SU but 6-5-1 ATS. L21 ARZ vs SF, ARZ 10-11 SU & 10-11 ATS. ARZ 6-6 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB RG’s. ARZ 28-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 40-45 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 24-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 5-8 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. SF 24-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 30-38 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 19-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 2-5-1 ATS L8 off SU FAV loss. SF 1-9 ATS as a FAV vs <500 opp w/revenge. For ARZ to be successful in this game, they need to do what they did in the game two weeks ago. Use RB Kenyon Drake all over the field as SF couldn’t stop him and spread out the OFF. I expect this game to be close as ARZ knows that they had SF on the ropes. Plus, there is a little bit of a revenge factor for ARZ here. SF is coming off a loss and may be looking at a bounceback situation but so is ARZ who have lost three straight, the last two games by three points each. If SF is without Kittle & Sanders, Jimmy G will be a little worried. ARZ can tee off on him. I like the points here because this game should be close unless ARZ gets turnoveridous. ARZ needs to use the clock on big drives so that Jimmy G can’t get going. ARZ DEF has some guys up front that have done some damage. ARZ LB Chandler Jones has 11.5 sacks and should see a couple sacks this game as LB Terrell Suggs has 5.5 sacks. This should be a good game.
THE PICK: ARZ+11 ½ 5 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (0-9), (3-6) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (5-4), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS CINNCY+10 ½
LW, CINNCY had their heads handed to them on a silver platter @HOME by BALT, 49-13. They really had no chance vs BALT. BALT was coming in blazing. This season has been a disaster for CINNCY & HC Zac Taylor. CINNCY #32 TOT DEF w/#22 PASS DEF & #32 RUSH DEF. CINNCY QB Ryan Finley is in the learning process and for CINNCY’s sake should get better. There are some talented guys here on OFF that should help take some pressure off of Finley. If CINNCY can get their running game going with RBs Joe Mixon & Giovani Bernard Finley will not have to feel like he has to do it alone. He can then be more relaxed in the pocket. On TNF, OAK took advantage of LAC QB Philip Rivers. They intercepted him 3x with OAK S Erik Harris getting 2INTS & returning one of them for a td. OAK RB Josh Jacobs has been a pleasant surprise and has helped take pressure off of QB Derek Carr. However, when Carr is under pressure, that is when he gets into trouble. CINNCY Has to pressure this guy. On TNF vs LAC , it seemed like Carr had all the time in the world to pick LAC apart. L5 CINNCY vs OAK, CINNCY 4-1 SUATS. CINNCY 32-19-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 41-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY CINNCY 13-4 ATS L17 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 2-10 ATS vs opp w/rest.CINNCY 9-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 10-1-1 before PITT. OAK 22-33-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. OAK 19-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. OAK 9-2 ATS vs .333<conf opp. OAK 5-11 ATS L16 off SU DOG win vs conf opp. OAK 2-12-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. OAK 4-5 ATS L9 w/rest. OAK 3-7 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win. OAK 6-2 ATS after LAC. OAK 0-9 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. OAK 1-12 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs <.500 non div opp. This is an actual game that CINNCY has a shot at. I like that they are getting so many points. When did OAK become so good? This game has upset written all over it because CINNCY plays well on the road and plays average teams tough. If OAK wins this game it will not be by much, maybe a fg or five points max. The oddsmakers are saying blowout but that’s when you look harder at the other side. I like the points here because I think this game will be closer. After a blowout teams have a way of bouncing back and playing better. OAK may be a little too relaxed after their TNF win vs LAC. If CINNCY wins the coin toss, they better take the ball and drive down the field and score a td. This game has the chance to be a shootout because the OAK PASS DEF is not that good either. But, take the points here.
TH PICK: CINNCY+10 ½ 3 STARS
NE Patriots (8-1), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS PHILLY+3 ½
This is a worse case scenario for PHILLY. They are now facing a NE team that is well rested, coming off a bye, before that coming off a loss @BALT & is still fuming about their loss in SuperBowl 52. Put that all together and you have a team that is very focused on beating you. NE 7-5 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. Before their bye, NE was making a run at BALT but as fate would have it, it wasn’t meant to be. With BALT leading 17-13, NE was driving in the 1st possession in the 2nd half. WR Julian Edelman uncharacteristically coughed up the ball and CB Marlon Humphrey returned it 70 yards for a td and a BALT 24-13 lead. Turn your sets off there. NE must get their run game going, NE #23 RUSH OFF. This season with a combination of injuries to the O-LINE & the RB crew, NE has had to improvise on their run game. Sometimes it has worked, sometimes it hasn’t. This week it has to work because PHILLY is very good vs the run. PHILLY #4 RUSH DEF. Brady & CO get the job done but they need to really take it to PHILLY. PHILLY is well rested too coming off their bye. PHILLY 6-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye week. Before that PHILLY@HOME beat CHI 22-14. PHILLY had taken a 19-0 lead but let CHI come back in this one, 19-14 in the 2nd half. PHILLY then led a drive for a fg to distance themselves for the win but it was close. So far, the only game that PHILLY won that was impressive was @GB this season. That was a game that PHILLY had to win and they took it to GB. The DEF stepped up in that game too, denying GB any points with a 1st down inside the 5 yard line 2x. Their other wins were vs WASH, NYJ, @BUFF & CHI. BUFF & CHI are paper tigers at best and they haven’t beaten anyone impressive. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is not as elusive as Lamar Jackson and since Carson has been injured a few times he will be a little hesitant to run out of the pocket. NE 32-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 34-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 19-15-2 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 5-6 ATS L11 as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 6-3 ATS L9 in 1st of BB HG’s. PHILLY 31-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 24-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PHILLY 18-5 ATS L23 vs non-conf opps. PHILLY 12-2 ATS L14 vs .400> non-conf opp. NE is on a bounceback and there are other factors motivating NE in this one. PHILLY is in a tie with DAL and is playing for a playoff spot. But, PHILLY will have their hands full with the NE DEF. NE #1 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #11 RUSH DEF. PHILLY WR DeSean Jackson is out the rest of the season because of that abdominal strain. That is a big blow to the PHILLY OFF. RB Jordan Howard will be on the NE radar during this game. Also, NE will be on the lookout for any trick plays that PHILLY may have up their sleeve. For NE, they have also gone through their share of receivers and are looking for more reliable go to guys that would take some attention off Edelman. NE gets it going in this one and the DEF creates some turnovers too. Lay the points here as NE gets back on track.
THE PICK: NE-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 17th, 2019 8:20pm
Chicago Bears (4-5), (3-6) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ LA Rams (5-4), (5-3-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS CHI+6 ½
LW, CHI barely got by DET even with DET QB Matt Stafford being out. The spread was changed to DET+6 ½ and CHI won by 7. CHI missed an extra point and that’s what made the game a nail biter. At the end, DET QB Jeff Driskel threw a pass on 4th & 7 at the CHI 25 that was ruled illegal because he was over the line of scrimmage. The pass was incomplete anyway but, it came down to the wire and CHI barely escaped. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky had a good day, 16-23, 173 yards, 3TDS, 0INTS, 0 lost fumbles. He was sacked by DET 5x. CHI RB David Montgomery is fitting in nicely and had 60 yards rushing on 17 carries but that CHI O-LINE needs to do a better job. LW, LAR OFF looked lost @PITT. LAR OFF didn’t score 1OFF td LW @PITT. Their only scoring was a fg. They had a fumble return for a td & a safety. LAR QB Jared Goff had a terrible day with 2INTS, 3fumbles, one which was returned for a td by CB Minkah Fitzpatrick. Neither team could get the running game going as LAR RB Todd Gurley only touched the ball 12x for 73 yards. The LAR OFF has definitely been silenced since 2018. The players may be the same but teams are playing them differently and the O-LINE has been hit with injuries and inconsistent play. That is where CHI LB Khalil Mack should take full advantage. These two teams played in CHI in 2018 on SNF with CHI winning 15-6. Can CHI dial it up again? L7 CHI vs LAR, CHI 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. CHI 39-23 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 40-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 10-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. CHI 11-15 ATS as a DOG on SNF. CHI 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 vs opp off SU loss w/revenge. LAR 6-7 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. LAR 21-38-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 20-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 1-6 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAR 4-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. LAR 2-7 ATS on SNF as a FAV vs <500. opp. LAR 3-10 AT @HOME vs NFC NORTH. LAR 0-7 ATS before MNF. This game has the potential to be a low scoring defensive struggle. LAR may have last year’s loss on their minds as motivation but, right now they have a lot of kinks that need to be worked out. Same with CHI. Trubisky just has to play average in this game and CHI can keep it close and possibly win outright. A turnover in this game will loom large. I like the points here with CHI because LAR OFF has been lost and can’t seem to get on track when there is a little pressure from opposing DEFs. IF LAR does win this game, it will be less than what the spread suggests. Take the points.
THE PICK: CHI+6 ½ 5 STARS
Monday November 18th, 2019 8:15pm
KC Chiefs (6-4), (4-6) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (4-6), (3-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS (MEXICO) LAC+3 ½
LW, KC had the ball and the lead 32-27 @TENN with 1:48 remaining. In a comedy of errors made by KC in the last 1:48, TENN ended up winning 35-32. KC HC Andy Reid said in the press conference that he took full responsibility for the loss. He will be saying the same thing when he loses to NE in the playoffs. TENN RB Derrick Henry ran wild against the KC DEF (what defense) on 23 carries for 188 yards & 2TDS. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill looked like a skilled surgeon, dicing and slicing plays through the KC DEF. He only went 13-19, 181 yards, 2TDS & 0INTS but he made every play count. Plus, he rushed 3x for 37 yards as well. KC WR Tyreek Hill showed why he is the X-factor on this team catching 11 passes for 157 yards & 1TD. This guy should be returning punts as well. KC QB Pat Mahomes had a great day 36-50, 446 yards, 3TD, 0INTS but, this game will be remembered for the blunders at the end. KC has been very inconsistent themselves this season and have played better on the road than at home. LW, LAC were outplayed by OAK on TNF. LAC QB Philip Rivers threw 3INTS, one which was a PICK6. The LAC DEF played like no one was home. They had a chance to win the game with one stop vs OAK late in the 4th qtr but couldn’t do anything and OAK scored the go ahead and eventually winning td. Both teams are going into a bye and probably could use the rest to regroup. KC 6-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. LAC not too good either before their bye. LAC 4-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. KC HC Andy Reid needs to be smarter and not over think things but he cannot change who he is. That’s why he is overrated as a coach. L12 LAC(H) vs KC, KC 6-6 SU but 9-3 ATS. L18 KC vs LAC, DOG 12-6 ATS. L24 KC vs LAC, ROAD 16-8 ATS. L12 KC vs LAC, KC 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS. KC 17-11 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. KC 8-2 ATS L10 in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 28-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 19-29 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. KC 27-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 8-0 ATS on MNF vs div opp off SU loss. KC 6-1 ATS on MNF vs opp off SU FAV loss. KC 13-6 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 11-6 ATS L17 after an SU loss. KC 10-2 ATS w/revenge. KC 1-7 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> & as a FAV vs opp off AWAY gm. LAC 6-9-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. LAC 27-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 24-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 36-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 5-1 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. There should be some revenge on the minds of the KC staff and players for the loss KC took @HOME vs LAC late last season on TNF. I liked LAC to win that game outright because if LAC was going to make a statement, that was the game to do it. But this time around KC is coming off a game they had in their hands and should be kicking themselves. LAC has just played awful & inconsistent this season and their DEF that was terrific in 2018, at times can’t stop anyone. This game has the makings of a shootout but KC is better on a bounceback and has better weapons on OFF than LAC. Rivers doesn’t have a lot of options to throw to. LAC T Russell Okung is questionable for this game with a strained groin. KC DE Emmanuel Ogbah tore a pectoral muscle and will be out for the rest of the season. KC OT Eric Fisher is still questionable for this game with a sports hernia. Lay the points here as Mahomes has a good day and some Charger pie.
THE PICK: KC-3 ½ 5 STARS