2019 NFL WEEK 12
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 21st, 2019 8:20pm
Indianapolis Colts (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (1-3) ATS INDY+3 ½
LW, HOU got slammed by BALT. I liked BALT in this game to win outright and cover but I didn’t think it would be such a blowout. BALT rushed for 263 yds and HOU had no answers. Plus, they couldn’t stop the pass either as BALT QB Lamar Jackson was 17-24, 222 yds, 4TDS & 0INTS. BALT was up 34-0 before HOU scored a TD in the 4th qtr and the final score was 41-7. HOU is not playing like a team that is playoff bound. When HOU beat KC @KC in wk 6 it may have looked like HOU turned the corner upward but since then, they have lost to INDY while barely beating OAK and beating JAGS in London. LW, JAGS might have scored first in their game @INDY but after that it was all INDY. The score was INDY 31-7 before JAGS saw the endzone again. Final score was INDY 33-13. I liked the JAGS in that game because of all the injuries to INDY but for INDY next man up guys, stepped up. INDY RBS Jonathan Williams & Marlon Mack both rushed for over 100 yds. INDY rushed for 264 yds combined vs JAGS. However, RB Marlon Mack broke his hand in the game vs JAGS & he will be out a few weeks. INDY S Kari Willis will also be out with a concussion that he sustained vs JAGS. WR Paris Campbell who was out for the game vs JAGS is probable for this game. WR TY Hilton is still questionable and so is CB Pierre Desir but, INDY looks ready. INDY #4 RUSH OFF vs HOU #13 RUSH DEF. INDY QB Jacoby Brisett is taking what the DEFs give him and he has certainly stepped up to the position of starting QB for INDY. I said long ago that if Brissett was given a legitimate chance he would make the most of the opportunity. L5 INDY vs HOU, INDY 4-1 SUATS. HOU DEF is not the same without DE JJ Watt. For HOU, against the JAGS in London, JAGS basically beat themselves with turnovers and the DEF was on the field for most of the game but vs BALT they sacked BALT QBS 1x. In turn QBs Deshaun Watson & AJ McCarron were sacked 7x. INDY DE Justin Houston has found new life after being discarded by KC. He has 8.0 sacks and leads INDY. L12 HOU(H) vs INDY, INDY 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L19 INDY vs HOU, HOME 10-8-1 ATS. L21 HOU vs INDY, FAV 10-9-1 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L21 INDY vs HOU, INDY 13-7-1 ATS. INDY 24-20-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. INDY 35-20 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 32-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 13-4 SU & 12-4-1 ATS on TNF. INDY 5-3 ATS L8 on TNF. INDY 9-2 ATS AWAY on TNF. INDY 2-7 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. INDY 1-11 ATS vs .400> conf opp off SUATS. HOU 6-5 ATS L11 in 1st of BB HG’s. HOU 13-10 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 15-16 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 14-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. HOU 8-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts. HOU 2-6-1 ATS on TNF. HOU 1-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. HOU 8-2 ATS L10 after scoring 10<pts. HOU 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS as a FAV off a loss of 4>pts under HC Bill O’Brien. HOU 1-9 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> vs .500> off SU win. HOU S Mike Adams is in concussion protocol so probably will be out. CB Lonnie Johnson injured his right foot and is questionable. S Justin Reed is questionable with a shoulder injury. WR Will Fuller is questionable with a hamstring injury. INDY is better coached and the DEF for INDY has been making progress from years past. HOU Bill O’Brien has not made progress and still plays conservatively. He has great weapons on OFF but doesn’t know what to do with them. This will be a close game as both of these teams know each other very well. It could come down to a fg because I don’t feel that either team will win in a blowout. The points matter here and right now INDY is the better team.
Due to many injuries on INDY & TE Eric Ebron out, RB Marlon Mack out, WR TY Hilton out & a lot of other guys banged up and HOU needs this game on a bounceback and also a revenge factor from earlier in the season, I am changing my pick.
THE PICK: HOU-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 24th, 2019 1:00pm
TB Bucs (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS TB+4 ½
LW, ATL took it to CAR @CAR. ATL shocked CAR 29-3. ATL looked flawless and CAR was reeling. The DEF for ATL which has played great again intercepted CAR QB Kyle Allen 4x and sacked him 5x. Where has this DEF been all season? ATL has made some adjustments on DEF & Raheem Morris was moved to the DEF side of the ball. Communication with pressure on the QB & coverages was emphasized during the bye. Hence, the results of beating NO & CAR by wide margins. LW, TB had no shot on a bounceback of NO. Plus, TB QB Jameis Winston throwing 4INTS and almost losing another fumble didn’t help TB’s cause either. He injured his ankle in the game but will be ready for this game @ATL. Winston already has 18INTS which matches his highest total for a season. He has certainly regressed. NO QB Drew Brees & CO picked the TB DEF apart. It didn’t help that TB cut CB Vernon Hargreaves who was a leader on the DEF. NO built a 20-0 lead in the 2nd qtr before TB was able to find the endzone. TB was playing catchup all game and it didn’t help with Winston throwing a PICK6 late in the game while trying to comeback from a 27-17 deficit. That sort of sealed the game for NO. The run game didn’t do much either for TB accumulating 36 yards. ATL 6-5 ATS L11 in 1st of BB HG’s. L12 ATL(H) vs TB, ATL 8-4 SU & 5-6-1 ATS. L17 ATL vs TB, FAV 10-6-1 ATS. L16 ATL vs TB, HOME 9-6-1 ATS. ATL 28-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 32-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 28-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 0-6 ATS L6 before TNF. ATL 2-11 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 off div vs opp off SU loss. ATL 2-12 in gms 9-12 as a FAV vs opp off DD SU HOME loss. TB 12-7 L19 in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 46-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 37-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 20-30 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. TB 6-3 ATS as a DOG <7pts in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 4-8 ATS L12 after NO. TB 10-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s vs .600<opp. ATL has made some adjustments on DEF and looks like a new team. This will spell disaster for TB which is still trying to find itself and wonder if Winston can get back on track. ATL will bum rush this guy and create turnovers like they did vs CAR. Winston will look for his favorite receiver, Mike Evans but, ATL will be waiting. On OFF, ATL should get going but has a weak run game due to injuries. ATL should win this game easily if the DEF creates turnovers. I would lay the points here as ATL will overwhelm TB and enjoy a nice win here after two wins on the road. Lay the points here as ATL rolls.
THE PICK: ATL-4 ½ 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (3-7), (6-4) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (7-3), (6-3-1) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS DEN+4
LW, DEN staked a 20-0 halftime lead @MINN. MINN & their fans were stunned. MINN came storming back in the 2nd half and won 27-23. DEN DEF gave up 4TDS but, DEN almost won the game outright at the end with a pass deflected in the endzone from about the 2yard line. I was feeling funny about that game and I thought it was a big spread for MINN to cover (-10 ½ ) but I thought they were playing well and had just come off the big win @DAL. However, there was some letdown by MINN and DEN capitalized on it for at least the 1st half anyway. Also, to note here is that DEN sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 5x and recovered 2 fumbles. BUFF does not have an O-LINE that is better than MINN’s. In five of DEN’s seven losses they have lost by 8pts or less. That means that they play tough and tight and don’t give up much. BUFF should take that into consideration. LW, BUFF went down to MIA and killed them 37-20. I thought the game would be closer considering that MIA gave BUFF a tight game into the 4th qtr when the two teams played at BUFF in wk 7. But it looks like MIA has given up. Yes, BUFF had some nice stats vs MIA but it was MIA, not NE, so let’s not get carried away here. BUFF sacked MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 7x and held MIA rushers to 23 yds but it is MIA. DEN #4 TOT DEF w/ #5 PASS DEF & #11 RUSH DEF. BUFF hasn’t beaten anyone and their schedule gets tougher from here. After DEN, they play @DAL, BALT, @PITT, @NE & NYJ. Not an easy schedule. Let’s see if they are up to the challenge. L6 BUFF vs DEN, BUFF 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS. DEN 10-7 ATS L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. DEN 32-33 ATS AAY in NOV. DEN 23-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 2-6 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650> opp. DEN 4-6 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. DEN 13-2 ATS in gms 9-12 as a ROAD DOG vs .500> opp. DEN 1-7 ATS L8 AWAY vs AFC EAST. BUFF 34-21 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 27-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 2-11 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. BUFF 0-5 ATS as a FAV 3>pts after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 0-5 ATS @HOME L5 off DD ATS win vs div opp. DEN is hungry and their QB Brandon Allen is certainly on a learning curve because of not having the luxury of a full training camp to practice as the #1 QB with team. However, he is making the most of his opportunity while Joe Flacco is out. I think the DEN DEF will make some plays here and considering that they should have had the upset LW @MINN, they will be ready for BUFF. I think BUFF may be looking at the DEN record and may take them a little lightly. Also, look for DEN’s RBs Lindsay & Freeman to be involved so that they take pressure off of QB Allen. This game will be closer than the spread and DEN may surprise BUFF by putting a lot of pressure on QB Josh Allen and forcing him to make mistakes. Take DEN & the points here and if the weather is bad, it favors DEN.
THE PICK: DEN+4 5 STARS
NY Giants (2-8), (3-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-6), (3-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYG+6
LW, on SNF I said that the CHI-LAR game was going to be a tight low scoring affair. I was right about the low scoring but LAR put together a drive late in the 4th qtr that CHI couldn’t respond to. I liked CHI+6 ½ but they lost to LAR 17-7. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky has been awful and when he is rushed, he panics and makes mistakes. In the last series for CHI, he left the game and Chase Daniels tried to get the OFF going. He was sacked 2x and that basically ended the game. CHI had said that Trubisky was taken out because his hip had stiffened and that they were taking a precaution by removing him from the game. Either way, CHI is not playing the same as they did in 2018. LB Khalil Mack is also having an off year with only 5.5 sacks. He hasn’t had a sack in three games. OLB Danny Trevathan who missed the game vs LAR is questionable for this game with a left elbow injury. Without him in the lineup, opposing O-LINES can double team Mack and keep him from doing any damage. The DEF for CHI in 2018 had 50 sacks & 27 INTS. In 2019 CHI has 25 sacks & 7 INTS. NYG are coming off a bye. NYG 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye NYG lost a heartbreaker @NYJ, 34-27. NYG RB Saquon Barkley had 13 rushes for 1yard. Yeah, that’s not a misprint. However, NYG QB Daniel Jones had a good game, 26-40 308 yards, 4TDS & 0INTS. But the one mistake Daniel made which was a big mistake was when NYJ S Jamal Adams stripped the ball from him and raced into the endzone for a TD. NYG lost to the NYJ 34-27. TE Evan Engram was out of that game and is questionable for this game with a mid foot sprain. WR Sterling Sheperd is also questionable but with a concussion, so we’ll see if he makes it vs CHI. L7 CHI vs NYG, NYG 4-3 SUATS incl AWAY TEAM 5-2 ATS. NYG 16-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 25-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG NYG 14-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 15-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 9-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >5pts vs opp off SU loss. CHI 28-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 29-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 18-5 ATS before DET. CHI 4-17 ATS as a conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. CHI 2-12 ATS as a non-div conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. CHI 3-11 ATS L14 vs NFC EAST. Both of these teams are going nowhere this season but believe it or not NYG have better playmakers on OFF than CHI. Last season NYG beat CHI @NYG and it was considered an upset because CHI was playing lights out but were maybe looking ahead to their game the following week with LAR. Maybe CHI is thinking they still have a shot in 2019 but they don’t. For NYG to win this game they need to get their OFF going because their DEF is not stopping anyone. NYG #18 PASS OFF vs CHI #10 PASS DEF. This game has the potential to be a shootout and I like the NYG with the points because whoever starts for CHI @QB they don’t have too much around them to get the job done. Take the points here and if the NYG don’t win, it won’t be by much, maybe a fg.
THE PICK: NYG+6 3 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5), (5-4-1) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-10), (4-6) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (0-4) ATS CINNCY+6 ½
LW, I loved CINNCY getting 10 ½ pts @OAK. OAK may be playing better but they are not at that level yet to be laying that many points. CINNCY played their heart out and is learning to play with Ryan Finley as their QB. He was sacked 5x and did throw 1INT & 1 lost fumble but, it was his 2nd game as a PRO. The running game for CINNCY did get going with 173 yards rushing vs OAK. I didn’t expect CINNCY to win, just keep the game close which is what they did. They held OAK to 3pts in the 2nd half but only scored 3pts themselves for a 17-10 loss. CINNCY WR Auden Tate was injured and will not be available for this game. On DEF, CINNCY DT Geno Atkins is solid but can’t do it alone. CINNCY #32 TOT DEF. LW on TNF, PITT took it on the chin vs CLEVE. If you haven’t seen the video, check it out. Anyway, PITT OFF couldn’t get anything going and the PITT DEF played tired. CLEVE made plays against a PITT DEF that was big the week before vs LAR. PITT C Maurkice Pouncey is suspended for three games but will probably be out of this game. WR JuJu Smith- Schuster suffered a concussion and probably will be out for this game too. CB Artie Burns hurt his knee so he’ll be out & RB James Connor is out with his re-injured shoulder. L12 CINNCY(H) vs PITT, CINNCY 2-10 SU & 3-8-1 ATS. L25 CINNCY vs PITT, PITT 17-7-1 ATS. L19 CINNCY vs PITT, PITT 15-3-1 ATS, L18 CINNCY vs PITT FAV 10-7-1 ATS. CINNCY 4-5 ATS L9 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 9-4 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. CINNCY 25-29 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 30-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 42-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 14-14-1 ATS after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 14-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 2-10 ATS vs opp w/rest 1NL. CINNCY 0-6 ATS as a DIV HD >4pts vs opp off SU loss. CINNCY 1-8 ATS as a DIV HD 4>pts. CINNCY 11-1 ATS in gms 9-12 vs AFC opp off DD ATS loss. PITT 11-12 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 8-4 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s 1NL. PITT 30-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 31-22 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 38-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 15-3 ATS L18 off SUATS loss vs opp off SUTS loss. PITT is looking like the walking wounded after beating up LAR. CINNCY has nothing to lose and should keep this game close. I like PITT to win this game but not cover the spread. PITT QB Mason Rudolph has looked good in some games and bad in others. He has not been consistent which leaves the door open for Big Ben’s return in 2020. CINNCY has a shot due to all the injuries that PITT is facing. The run game for PITT is a big question mark as guys have not been able to step up after James Connor’s injuries. Take the points here as CINNCY has nothing to lose and PITT wins by a fg.
THE PICK: CINNCY+6 ½ 3 STARS
Miami Dolphins (2-8), (5-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (4-6), (3-6-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-3-1) ATS MIA+10 ½
So CLEVE is coming from a TNF brawl where they beat PITT in CLEVE 21-7. DE Myles Garrett will not be there for this one. If you don’t know why, you could check the 100 videos that are out there on it. The DEF for CLEVE actually played well and caused PITT QB Mason Rudolph to throw 4INTS. They also sacked him 4x. CLEV played this game with relatively no mistakes except for the brawl. The running game got going and RB Nick Chubb did his thing for 92yds. CLEVE RB Kareem Hunt also got going and showed that he is ready to break out. Hunt can give Chubb some needed rest between plays and share the load at RB without missing a beat for the running game. This in turn will take massive pressure off of QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is dangerous when there is no pressure on him. With a successful running game, the opposing DEF can not cover both RBS & WRS and the passing game for CLEVE will open up. Another team may be able to make adjustments vs a successful running game but MIA will be left shaking their heads. LW, MIA was thrashed by BUFF in MIA. MIA had 23 yards rushing and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was sacked 7x. MIA had 2 OFF TDS to go along with a kickoff return for a td which made the score look reasonable. But MIA is a mess. BUFF rushed for 168 yards vs MIA. How many yards will Chubb & Hunt rush for? CLEVE #12 RUSH OFF vs MIA #31 RUSH DEF. Let’s face it, CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is not a good coach but he should be looking at this game as being able to run wild all over MIA. MIA has been stripped of anybody decent and should retool with a few players in the off season. But for now they are just playing out the schedule and guys are trying to show that they could stick around for next season. Fitzpatrick has a lot of energy and doesn’t mind being in this spot. CLEVE is not really that good vs the RUN either, CLEVE #26 RUSH DEF but, MIA doesn’t have anyone on the roster that you could comfortably hand the ball to 30x and get the job done. L7 CLEVE vs MIA, CLEVE 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS. CLEVE 13-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 10-11-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 0-5 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEVE 1-12 ATS off DD SU win. CLEVE 2-8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME FAV. CLEVE 10-25-1 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs AFC opp. MIA 37-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 33-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 18-11 ATS L29 as a non div DOG 7>pts. MIA 3-13-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 0-9 ATS vs <.500 opp off BB SU wins. MIA )-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts after allowing 35>pts. Both WRs Landry & Beckham are probable for this game with nagging injuries but they need to be ready and willing to penetrate a MIA DEF that is pretty bad. They should both have over 100 yards receiving in this game. This is a game that CLEVE needs to do a little thrashing. MIA is a very bad team and you must show that you can beat bad teams convincingly and without hesitation. If CLEVE has a problem here with a team like MIA that is just so bad, then CLEVE is not ready to take that next step. CLEVE hasn’t been this big of a FAV except for the game in 2018 vs CINNCY. But after that you have to go back to the early 2000s for a game where they were this big of a FAV. CLEVE needs to show that they can beat up a very bad team. Lay the points here as CLEVE has to convince everyone that they have talent and that they are for real.
THE PICK: CLEVE-10 ½ 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (5-5), (5-4-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NO Saints (8-2), (7-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS CAR+10
LW, CAR couldn’t do anything right. They were blasted @HOME by ATL 29-3. This was an upset of epic proportions. CAR QB Kyle Allen had his worst day as a PRO with 4INTS, 0TDS. Although his game vs SF 4 weeks ago wasn’t much better with 3INTS & 0TDS. ATL was up on CAR 26-0 in the 3rd qtr and CAR had no answers for ATL. ATL also sacked Allen 5x. Some stats may look good for CAR in this game but it was in catchup mode. ATL special teams even scored a td. If CAR wants to get into the playoffs as a wild card, they need to start winning games and go on a run. They don’t have an easy schedule going forward but, need to play better as a team. LW, NO went to TB and took care of business. After getting manhandled by ATL in NO, NO was in bounceback mode and they were all over TB like a bad suit. They forced TB QB Jameis Winston into 4INTS and returned one of them for a TD which sealed the game 34-17. NO has to keep pace because they want a high seed for the playoffs. These two coaches know each other very well and even though NO stats may be better than CAR’s, it doesn’t matter when these two teams get together. NO doesn’t have an easy schedule going forward and the rest of the way will show everyone what this team is made of and if they can make it back to the NFC Championship game. CAR needs to get back to winning. L12 NO(H) vs CAR, NO 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS. L24 NO vs CAR, CAR 12-12 SU & 14-10 ATS. L12 NO vs CAR, NO 8-4 ATS. CAR 25-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 22-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 20-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 4-8-1 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 0-5 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses vs opp w/revenge. NO 35-27 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 29-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 31-16 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 9-3 ATS L12 after TB. NO 1-7 ATS @HOME off DD SU win vs opp off BB SU losses. NO 7-7 ATS @HOME after DD SU win. NO 5-22 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> off DD SU win vs div opp. NO 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 off div vs opp off DD SU loss. NO 0-5 ATS as a FAV >5pts w/revenge vs opp off DD SU loss. There is a big combination of factors playing in this game. CAR is on a big bounceback after a thrashing loss & before that a disappointment @GB. NO is coming off a blowout win. Going into this game, CAR probably corrected a few things moving forward and will throw some different looks at NO. CAR always plays NO tough and the spread that is posted is just too much. If the spread were say 3 ½, I would like NO here @HOME but, I feel this will be a tough game for NO. This game has the potential to be a shootout and CAR is desperate for a win because their season depends on it. The score will be closer than the spread. Take CAR & the points here because this game will be decided by 5pts or less.
THE PICK: CAR+10 5 STARS
Oakland Raiders (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ NY Jets (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYJ+3
LW, NYJ @WASH took care of WASH. Don’t let the final score of 34-17 fool you. It was 34-3 late in the 4th qtr when WASH scored 2TDS on dummy, garbage time. NYJ played a great game and sacked WASH QB Dwayne Haskins 6x & intercepting him 1x. The rushing game for WASH was kept to 54 yds. NYJ S Jamal Adams had three sacks. But remember it was WASH who are 1-9 and will be going through a major re-evaluation in the off season to put it lightly. NYJ have had a terrible season themselves and some evaluations in the off season will certainly be coming. But for now, they are playing with some heart and trying to win games. LW, OAK @HOME barely beat CINNCY. When I say barely, OAK was a FAV -10 ½ and they beat CINNCY by 7. I liked CINNCY big in that game, not to win, but to keep it close. Where does OAK get off being such a BIG FAV? Yes, OAK RB Josh Jacobs had another nice day but, does QB Derek Carr scare anyone? Does anyone get nervous knowing they have to face this guy? Plus, the DEF for OAK is less than average. OAK #20 TOT DEF. If a team has a decent OFF that can beat OAK but CINNCY was missing a few parts in the receiving corps & O-LINE so I knew they would just keep it close and they did. CINNCY DEF kept OAK to 3pts in the 2nd half and they are rated last in the NFL. How will the NYJ do? OAK may make the playoffs if some other teams falter but, they are not going far. They will not get out of the wild card weekend with a win. Chances are they will have to travel east and play early and in the past that has been a recipe for disaster for OAK. But for now, they play @ the NYJ. L9 OAK vs NYJ, NYJ 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS incl NYJ(H) vs OAK, NYJ 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. NYJ 18-15-1 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 32-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 29-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ NYJ 4-0-1 ATS L5 @HOME vs AFC WEST. OAK 2-4-2 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. 7-9 ATS L16 in 1st of BB RG’s. OAK 34-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. OAK 19-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. OAK 9-3 ATS vs .333<conf opp. OAK 1-13 ATS AWAY of BB SU wins. OAK 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU win vs opp off DD ATS win. OAK will try to run the ball to take some pressure off of Carr. RB Josh Jacobs will try to run but he will be stopped. NYJ #1 RUSH DEF. So that means it will be all on Carr’s shoulders. He will be pressured and he will make some mistakes. For NYJ, QB Sam Darnold has to take what the OAK DEF gives him. He has talent around him and OAK is susceptible to the big play. Plus, they haven’t fared well going east and playing early. This is another chance for NYJ to show that they can beat a winning team. Take the points here as NYJ win the game outright and OAK HC Jon Gruden will be shaking his head. NYJ DEF will force some turnovers in this game and NYJ OFF will capitalize. If Darnold starts getting nervous, the game will get out of hand for NYJ. I like NYJ @HOME getting points and they should win outright.
THE PICK: NYJ+3 5 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (8-2), (5-5) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (5-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS SEA+1 ½
LW, PHILLY was up 10-0 @HOME vs NE. But NE is not like any other team and makes adjustments all the time. Well, PHILLY didn’t score another point and NE won 17-10. The DEF for NE stopped PHILLY cold. But, PHILLY was without WR Alshon Jeffery & RB Jordan Howard. Both are questionable for this game. Without them PHILLY QB Carson Wentz had to improvise but to no avail on his passing choices. NE DEF was able to sack Wentz 5x and force 2fumbles with one of them being recovered by NE. TE Zach Ertz is Wentz’s FAV target and he hauled in 9 passes for 94 yards. But Ertz can’t do it alone. PHILLY needs a lot of help if they are to make the playoffs. They are behind DAL but have a favorable schedule going forward as they play @MIA, NYG, @WASH, DAL & @NYG after this week vs SEA. If PHILLY goes 4-2 they would end up 9-7. Beating SEA & DAL are tough but the other games should be walk throughs. SEA is coming off a bye. SEA 5-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. But, before that, SEA won a thrilling game @SF in OT 27-24. I liked SEA in that game because they play SF tough and they were getting 6pts. But I liked SEA to win outright because SF was due for a loss and SEA knows SF. SEA QB Russell Wilson has been in the MVP chatter all season and he has thrown 23TDS with only 2INTS. However, I’m sure that if you spoke with Wilson he is only concerned with winning games and getting back to the SuperBowl. But, n his defense, he makes it look so easy. Anyway, in the game @SF in OT, Wilson threw a pass which was intercepted. Had the pass been three inches higher, the receiver would have been able to walk into the endzone. Luckily for SEA, the rookie K for SF missed what would have been the winning fg. Wilson has been able to find the open receiver and the run game has taken some pressure off of him as well. L7 SEA vs PHILLY, SEA 6-1 SUATS incl SEA 3-0 SUATS @PHILLY. SEA 26-23 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 24-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PHILLY 31-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 40-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 5-11 ATS L16 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 5-11 ATS vs .666> conf opp. This is the matchup of the game. SEA #6 RUSH OFF vs PHILLY #4 RUSH DEF. If SEA is not able to get any kind of run game going, Wilson will open it up in the passing game and he usually finds his receivers. PHILLY secondary has been known to give up plays and Wilson is good at picking DEFs apart. He looks for the weakest link and he exploits it. For PHILLY, Wentz needs to have some kind of running game going to take some of the pressure off of him. Also, TE Zach Ertz can’t be the only receiver he goes to. He needs to look around more. I like SEA in this game because they have something to play for. PHILLY is just holding on and needs a lot of things to happen for them to make it to the post season. Even if they get there, they’re not going far. For this game, I don’t see a blowout by either team, that would certainly be surprising. Turnovers will be kept to a minimum as each team doesn’t turn the ball over much. This should be an exciting game but I like SEA to win outright. Take SEA here.
THE PICK: SEA+1 ½ 3 STARS
Detroit Lions (3-6-1), (4-6) ATS, (1-3-1) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Washington Redskins (1-9), (3-7) ATS, (0-5) HOME, (1-4) ATS WASH+3 ½
LW, DET @HOME went toe to toe with DAL even without QB Matt Stafford. DAL was up by 14pts in the 4th qtr but DET closed it to within 8pts. I liked DAL laying 3 ½ on the road without Stafford but the DEF for DAL gave up more than I thought. DET battled back and made the game interesting but was no match and lost 35-27. DET did have a running game vs DAL with 121 yards rushing with 55 yards by RB Bo Scarbrough & 51 yards s by QB Jeff Driskel. LW, WASH @HOME was manhandled by NYJ 34-17. Don’t let the close score fool you as NYJ were leading 34-3 in the 4th qtr when WASH scored two dummy, garbage time TDS. WASH QB Dwayne Haskins was sacked 6x and was hurried for most of the game but, did manage to throw 2TDs in garbage time. RB Adrian Peterson only managed 25 yards on 9 carries. The run game for WASH went out the door because of the huge deficit. Also, the WASH O-LINE has been atrocious due to injuries and incompetence. WASH has been a mess this season with injuries and guys not stepping up. If Haskins is going to be the QB of the future for WASH it’s actually good that he is getting this experience while they are bad. L6 DET vs WASH, DET 4-2 SUATS. DET 8-11 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. DET 18-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 25-22 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 4-0 ATS L4 before Thrsday gm. DET 8-1 ATS L9 vs .333<opp. DET 11-2 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. WASH 10-9 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. WASH 36-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 24-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 7-6 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. WASH 8-1 ATS L9 off SU FAV loss. WASH 8-4 ATS L12 off DD ATS loss. If QB Jeff Driskel shows promise for DET, Stafford’s days could be numbered. Stafford hasn’t won in DET and is getting a hefty salary. Neither one of these team’s is getting to the playoffs soon and DET’s DEF has been a BIG disappointment under HC Matt Patricia. DET # 30 TOT DEF. They really can’t stop anyone unless the other team stops themselves. This game has the makings of a shootout because of the lax DET DEF but they have better weapons on OFF to score. WASH needs to look at every position on the roster in the off season and see if they can make an improvement. Lay the points here as DET finally wins one and covers after a three game losing streak.
THE PICK: DET- 3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 24th, 2019 4:00pm
Jacksonville Jags (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS JAGS+3
TENN is coming off a bye. TENN 6-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye they played @KC where KC was up 32-27 with 1:48 and the ball but decided they didn’t want to win the game and through a series of dumb decisions by KC HC Andy Reid, TENN somehow managed to win the game 35-32. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been playing too bad even for his standards. In his five games with TENN, he has completed 71.3% of his passes which is the highest for his career. He has thrown 8TDS as opposed to 4INTS and he has had 4fumbles. But they have been a little lucky and it has worked out. It doesn’t hurt that RB Derrick Henry has been getting the ball more and finding the holes. Henry vs KC had 188 yds rushing & 2TDS. Earlier in the season @JAGS, he had 44yds rushing. At the time Mariota was the QB for TENN. In wk 3 JAGS @HOME beat TENN 20-7. So there’s a little divisional payback here. LW, JAGS were manhandled @INDY. It was JAGS QB Nick Foles 1st game back from injury and he was rusty to say the least. JAGS were actually up to start the game 7-0 but then nothing went right and INDY stormed out to a 31-7 lead in the 4th qtr and it ended up being 33-13, a rout. In that game JAGS rushed for a measly 29 yards while they gave up 264 yards rushing. TENN has a decent running game which takes a lot of pressure off of Tannehill and I’m sure they will try to establish it early. TENN #15 RUSH OFF vs JAGS #29 RUSH DEF. JAGS have been a disappointment again this season and they need to evaluate the whole team in the off season. Was the 2017 season a fluke? These two teams don’t like each other and this will be a battle. L8 JAGS vs TENN, TENN 6-2 SUATS. L12 TENN (H) vs JAGS, TENN 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS. L21 TENN vs JAGS, TENN 9-12 ATS. L25 TENN vs JAGS, DOG 13-12 ATS. TENN 22-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 19-30 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. TENN 27-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TENN 9-1 ATS as a DIV HOME FAV 3<pts w/revenge. JAGS 8-8 ATS L16 in 2nd of BB RG’s. JAGS 23-22-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 20-22-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. JAGS 33-26-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 7-1 ATS in gms 9-12 AWAY off DD SUATS loss. JAGS 8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB div gms off SU loss. TENN HC Mike Vrabel has to turn the corner upward with this franchise. TENN has been to the playoffs one time since 2008. TENN has winnable games vs AFC SOUTH & one game vs NO but, TENN schedule is not that tough. They just have to keep winning after digging themselves a hole. TENN TE Delanie Walker is questionable for this game with his ankle but the DEF for TENN should be raring to go. There is a little payback here for TENN and they should stop the run cold and put it all on Foles’s shoulders. It should be a good game but I think TENN wins by a td at the most unless Tannehill gets turnoveridous. Take TENN & lay the points.
THE PICK: TENN-3 5 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NE Patriots (9-1), (7-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS DAL+6 ½
OK, LW, NE stakes PHILLY with a 10-0 lead and then clamps the hammer down and PHILLY doesn’t score another point the rest of the game. PHILLY is without RB Jordan Howard, WR Alshon Jeffery, RB Darren Sproles(IR) & WR DeSean Jackson (IR). So QB Carson Wentz can’t do anything offensively and NE comes back and wins 17-10. NE even threw in a trick play where WR Julian Edelman threw a TD. But the DEF for NE was the show here as they sacked Wentz 5x and caused a fumble, which Wentz lost and NE only gave up 81 yards rushing which put it all on Wentz’s shoulders. Say what you want about the NE OFF, Brady managed to throw completed passes to 10 different receivers. The running game needs to get going for NE otherwise you will see a lot of screen passes. The DEF for NE did their job completely vs PHILLY and have smothered most of their opponents this season. NE #1 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #10 RUSH DEF. The DEF for NE has been the best DEF they have had since the early 2000s. Let’s not forget about the NE OFF because after the last game Brady was annoyed how the OFF played and how the O-LINE performed. After he says something like that, the next week he & the OFF are on fire and can’t be stopped. LW, DAL played @DET without QB Matt Stafford playing for DET and only beat DET by 8pts. Plus, their DEF gave up 27 points. I like DAL in that game but I certainly didn’t think it would be that close. No one did. However, DAK is playing on a higher level than he did before with 9TDS & 2 INTS in his last three games. The run game has taken a little bit of a backseat as RB Ezekial Elliott has not seen as many touches and has run for 47 & 45 yards respectively in the last two games. Yes the OFF is purring but the DEF is giving up a lot of points and yardage. LW, a backup QB for DET threw 2TDS without an INT and a normally anemic DET running game scored 2TDS as well and rushed for 121 yards. The DAL DEF is vulnerable. L3 NE vs DAL, NE 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. NE 26-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 33-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 26-9-3 ATS L38 @HOME vs non-div. NE 9-1 ATS L10 @HOME after allowing 10<pts. DAL 11-2-1 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. DAL 26-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 19-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 12-12-1 ATS L25 as an AWAY DOG vs non-div. DAL 14-3-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG<8pts. DAL 2-12 ATS in gms 9-12 as a DOG vs non-div opp off SUATS win. DAL will try to get their run game going but NE will be waiting and when Prescott looks to set up the secondary will be waiting. Cover zero is what this group has perfected so far and Dak will see first hand how it works. DAL can hope for turnovers because they will certainly be crucial in this game but, NE will play a tight game. NE will also look to get their run game going so Brady doesn’t feel like he has to do it alone. I like NE laying less than a td because it is a comfortable margin and NE will cover this game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NE-6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 24th, 2019 8:20pm
GB Packers (8-2), (7-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (9-1), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS GB+3
LW, SF @HOME played catchup vs a very determined ARZ team that was looking for revenge. ARZ was up 16-0 in this game but ARZ let SF battle back and take the lead 17-16 in the 3rd qtr. This game ended up being a shootout and on the final play SF scored a td off a crazy play. SF did cover with the spread I had earlier in the week but didn’t cover with other spread later in the week. Anyway, ARZ had a chance to upset SF and they blew it. But they showed they have promise. A tweak here and a tweak there and ARZ could give SF a better run for their money. SF was without RB Matt Breida & TE George Kittle who are both questionable for the game vs GB. WR Emmanuel Sanders who was injured in the game vs SEA was used sparingly and caught only 3 passes. On DEF for SF DE Dee Ford left with a hamstring strain and is also questionable for this game. GB is coming off a bye. GB 9-2-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they were @HOME vs CAR. CAR narrowly missed tying the score with a last second rush that didn’t make it to the endzone. CAR had suspect play calling again late in a crucial situation thanks to HC Ron Rivera. Had CAR scored they would needed the 2pt conversion for the game to go to OT. But at the least it should have been GB 24-22 with no cover for GB. The DEF for GB had started out the season on a high note and it looked like the team would be balanced and would control their own destiny. But, whenever GB has faced a team with a reliable run game, that team has run all over the GB DEF and then has been picked apart. They were able to beat KC because of the lackluster DEF that KC plays. But vs LAC they were completely surprised by a DEF that would not let their OFF get off the ground. Also, LAC rushed for over 150 yards vs GB in that game which kept the GB OFF off the field. L6 incl playoffs, GB vs SF, SF 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS. SF 30-39 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 24-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF SF 6-0 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666>non-div opp. SF 7-8 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 6-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. GB 7-7 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. GB 22-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 28-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 10-7 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 13-11 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 8-8 ATS as a DOG on SNF. GB 13-3 ATS w/rest. For SF to have success in this game, they need to establish a run game that puts the GB DEF on its heels and Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines. GB #25 RUSH DEF. This would certainly take a lot of pressure off of Jimmy G and make him more dangerous in the pocket to pick the GB DEF apart. Turnovers will be crucial as neither one of these teams turn the ball over rapidly. The GB secondary is a little suspect and their run game has been inconsistent at times. GB WR Davantae Adams saw a lot of action in the game vs CAR and it seems that he is fully recovered from the turf toe injury that he suffered earlier in the season. This game has shootout written all over it but I think SF wins it in the end by a 4pt margin something like 28-24. Lay the points here as SF should take care of business in front of the home crowd. Could this be a prequel to a playoff game?
THE PICK: SF-3 3 STARS
Monday November 25th, 2019 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (8-2), (6-3-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-0-1) ATS @ LA Rams (6-4), (6-3-1) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS LAR+3
LW, BALT @HOME took care of HOU, no problem, 41-7. It was a BALT OFF machine that HOU had no answers for. On DEF they sacked the HOU QBs 7x. Just when you think BALT will slow down, they speed up. BALT #2 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF. LW on SNF, LAR had trouble with CHI even though they won 17-7. LAR QB Jared Goff does not look comfortable and does not know how to adapt when his passing choices are limited. LAR was able to put a drive together in the 4th qtr to seal the win but they struggled for most of the game. The LAR DEF played well hurrying CHI QB Mitch Trubisky all night. LAR DEF stopped the CHI running game to 70 yards between RBs Tarik Cohen & David Montgomery but, it was Trubisky that was hurried all night and didn’t make the right decisions. Trubisky didn’t read the DEF and didn’t make the adjustments. LAR #5 RUSH DEF. LAR DT Aaron Donald just keeps motoring along as he recorded two sacks of CHI QB Chase Daniel who came in at the end of the game when it appeared that Trubisky was injured. L3 BALT vs LAR, BALT 3-0 SUATS. BALT 37-24 ATAS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 31-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 11-11-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 6-11-1 ATS L18 vs NFC. BALT 8-2 ATS vs NFC on MNF. BALT 5-0-2 ATS on MNF. BALT 1-6 ATS AWAY on MNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 2-10 ATS in gms 9-12 off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. LAR 8-5 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAR 16-38-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 22-38-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 2-7-1 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. LAR 3-6 ATS L9 on MNF. LAR 3-6 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. LAR 5-9-1 ATS L15 vs AFC NORTH. LAR 1-7 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU non-div win vs opp off BB SU wins. I don’t know if LAR DEF can stop the BALT OFF because so far since wk 4, no team has been able to do so. The only teams that have been able to give BALT trouble are those within the AFC NORTH. BALT QB Lamar Jackson is a smart player and adjusts well when he sees what the DEF is giving him. Don’t be surprised if S Earl Thomas & CB Marcus Peters have a big game. Peters was traded from LAR & Thomas knows LAR well from having been with SEA. This game will be a battle but BALT will be victorious. The LAR express is not the same as it was in 2018 & Goff is not doing the job. Goff is like a statue and gets nervous if he doesn’t have choices. The BALT DEF has to bum rush this guy into making mistakes. BALT DEF will do that and force turnovers. If they follow the script of what PITT did a few weeks ago they should have the victory easily because then there OFF can take control. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BALT-3 5 STARS