2019 NFL WEEK 13
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 13 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 28th, 2019 12:30pm
Chicago Bears (5-6), (3-8) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-7-1), (4-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS DET+3
LW, DET laid a goose egg @WASH. DET QB Jeff Driskel had 3INTS vs WASH which led to a 19-16 loss @WASH. Driskel was sacked 6x and even though WASH QB Dwayne Haskins didn’t have such a good game himself, WASH came out with the victory. WASH scored their points on 4fgs & a kickoff return for a td. No offensive TDS and yet they still beat DET. DET HC Matt Patricia is probably scratching his head wondering what DET needs to do for a win. Patricia, maybe a netter DEF would help. DET #29 TOT DEF. Stafford is unlikely to play in this game so it will be Driskel again. LW, CHI barely beat NYG. LB Khalil Mack had a strip sack of NYG QB Daniel Jones which led to an easy CHI TD that put the game ahead for CHI. NYG scored a td for a backdoor cover. I liked NYG+6 to keep it close because the CHI OFF with Trubisky is pretty bad. He had 2INTS & CHI RBS rushed for a paltry 47 yds. CHI OLB Danny Trevathan has been out the last two games with an elbow injury which has led to teams double teaming LB Khalil Mack. Trevathan is out for this game. These two teams met @CHI 3 weeks ago and that was the first game that Stafford was out. CHI beat DET 20-13 and CHI was – 6 ½ but, DET was driving at the end and barley missed getting into the endzone with Driskel as the QB. Maybe he has a better game this time because he is certainly due. Driskel has a hamstring injury and his availability for this game is questionable. DET on Thanksgiving, L8 4-4 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. L8 as a DOG on Thanksgiving, 0-7-1 ATS. L12 DET(H) vs CHI, DET 7-5 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L19 CHI vs DET, CHI 8-9-2 ATS. L21 CHI vs DET, HOME 13-6-2 ATS. L18 DET vs CHI, HOME 12-4-2 ATS. CHI 9-8 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 18-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 25-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CHI 26-31 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 3-6 ATS on TNF. CHI 2-7 ATS L9 on THURS. CHI 1-7 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 vs opp off SU loss w/revenge. CHI 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 vs div opp off BB SU losses. CHI 0-8 ATS on Thurs vs opp off SU loss. DET 9-15-1 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. DET 28-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 39-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 27-24 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 0-11 ATS L11 on Thurs as a DOG. DET 2-18 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME DOG. CHI still has an outside shot at a wildcard spot if they keep winning. But their schedule is very tough. After this game, CHI is DAL, @GB, KC & @MINN. This is the easiest of their games going forward but DET needs a win desperately just to save face. QB Jeff Driskel is questionable for this game and his backup is David Blough. He is a rookie out of Purdue and he has yet to play a snap. If Driskel is not available for this game then, you have to go with CHI. Right now, lay the points here as CHI will roll all over DET even though DET may feel comfortable back at home. If anything changes, this will be updated.
THE PICK: CHI-3 3 STARS
Thursday November 28th, 2019 4:30pm
Buffalo Bills (8-3), (7-3-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-0-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS BUFF+6 ½
LW, DAL lost @NE. Yes, owner Jerry Jones called out his coach and DAL should have given RB Ezekial Elliott the ball more and DAL should have gone for the TD instead of kicking the fg but this just adds to the list why HC Jason Garrett will be gone after this season. Garrett has made questionable play calls through his tenure with DAL that has had everybody scratching their heads. It was a very tight game with NE. You had to know that the last possession that DAL had where they kicked the fg probably was going to be the last time DAL touched the ball, so why not go for the td? A better HC with this team would have a better record. Jerry Jones has to stop looking for a puppet and start looking for a winner. DAL L8 on Thanksgiving, 4-4 SU but 1-7 ATS. LW, BUFF beat DEN, so what. BUFF is coming off a big blowout win of DEN. DEN’s season has been over for some time even though they gave MINN a scare the week before. But @BUFF it was a letdown, where the team didn’t really show up. DEN gave up 244 yds rushing on 47 carries. That’s a lot of pounding. Do you think BUFF will get that many yards rushing vs DAL? Will BUFF QB Josh Allen be able to scramble around when DAL is in desperation mode? Who has BUFF beaten? @NYJ, @NYG, CINNCY, TENN, MIA, WASH, @MIA & DEN. They have lost to NE, PHILLY & @CLEVE. Thy have beaten one team with a barely winning record. But BUFF struts around like they are gangbusters. They beat up bad teams but lose to good teams. That is a recipe for one and done in the playoffs. Just ask HOU HC Bill O’Brien. He is the king of one and done. Congratulations to RB Frank Gore who is the #3 RB of all time. He is still getting it done and edging out RB Devin Singletary. BUFF QB Josh Allen has more rushing TD (7) than those two combined (4). Do you think he will try to run a lot vs DAL? DAL #1 TOT OFF w/#1 PASS OFF & #8 RUSH OFF vs BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. The DEF for DAL kept NE to 1TD. Yes, NE has had their shortcomings on OFF lately but DAL did what they needed to do to keep the game within striking range. L3 DAL vs BUFF, DAL 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS. HOME is 3-0 ATS. DAL 24-41-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 24-24-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 5-9 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 7-0 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV >3pts vs .500> non-div opp. BUFF 35-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 28-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 3-5 ATS on TNF. BUFF 0-4 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. BUFF 2-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. BUFF 7-0-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <.500 opp. BUFF 1-11 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. DAL RB Ezekial Elliott needs to touch the ball a lot in this game so that Prescott can find open receivers. DAL WR Amari Cooper will look to have a big game after catching 0 passes vs NE. The OFF will be opened up after Jones called them out. DAL is on a desperate bounceback after the HC was called out and BUFF hasn’t beaten anyone. BUFF will not get their running game going vs DAL. DAL will put it all on the shoulders, not the legs, of Josh Allen. If he can beat DAL in the air, then BUFF can win, otherwise DAL will look to roll over BUFF. HOME cooking for DAL is just what the doctor ordered and they will get it here. Lay the points as DAL should romp in this game. Look for some turnovers from Josh Allen. BUFF will be doing a look around to see what just happened.
THE PICK: DAL-6 ½ 5 STARS
Thursday November 28th, 2019 8:20pm
NO Saints (9-2), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (3-8), (3-8) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS ATL+6 ½
LW, ATL took it on the chin @HOME vs TB, 35-22. They had us all fooled that they had changed and might make a run at something respectable in 2019 but they regressed and their season is over. The DEF that put up 12 sacks in the two games prior put up 0 sacks vs TB. Plus, ATL QB Matt Ryan was sacked 6x, threw 1INT & had 1 lost fumble. It got so bad that he was pulled for QB Matt Shaub who managed to throw a TD in garbage time. Yeah there will be some changes for ATL starting on Black Monday. ATL was down 28-13 in the 4th qtr and couldn’t get out of their own way. Now they play a pissed off NO team looking for a little payback. LW, NO got so lucky vs CAR. CAR HC Ron Rivera should be gone after the season because he just hasn’t learned anything about play calling. Ron, have you ever heard of play action pass? Anyway, CAR missed a fg after suspect play calling with 1st & goal and NO then took the ball and went all the way down the field and kicked the winning fg. I liked CAR+10 because I knew CAR would keep it close and had a chance to possibly win it outright because they have given NO trouble, especially in the dome. But leave it to Shipwrecked Ron, not Riverboat Ron to screw it up. NO won 34-31. NO & ATL met three weeks ago in NO and NO was the heavy FAV -13. Well, if you only watched that game, you would think ATL was going to the Superbowl. They took it to NO 26-9 in a total domination game where they sacked NO QB Drew Brees 7x. You don’t think NO is still thinking about that game? NO will be ready and they will score at will and throw everything but the kitchen sink at ATL. L12 ATL (H) vs NO, ATL 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS. L18 NO vs ATL, NO 11-7 ATS. L17 ATL vs NO, HOME 10-7 ATS. L13 ATl vs NO, DOG 9-4 ATS. NO 12-14 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. NO 31-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 30-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 26-34 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. NO 4-6-1 ATS L11 on TNF. NO 2-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. NO 3-4 ATS AWAY vs NFC SOUTH on TNF. NO 3-9 ATS as a DIV ROAD FAV 2>pts. NO 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 off div gm vs opp off DD SU loss. NO 11-2 ATS AWAY in gms 9-12 vs div opp off SU loss. NO 0-5 ATS as a FAV >5pts w/revenge vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 10-4 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. ATL 1-10 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB HG’s. ATL 11-4 ATS on TNF. ATL 8-2 ATS vs NFC SOUTH on TNF. ATL 26-29 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 28-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 29-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 3-8 ATS L11 after TB. ATL 1-6 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. ATL 6-0 ATS L6 @HOME on TNF. NO is looking to keep pace in the NFC as the 2nd or 1st seed. They have to keep winning because there are other teams in play here and NO needs to get back to the NFC Championship game or better. ATL is just in the way. NO #12 TOT OFF vs ATL #26 TOT DEF. NO HC Sean Payton is under pressure to have a big game here and revenge what happened a few weeks ago. Lay the points here even though ATL is on a bounceback after being handled by TB, they are facing an NO team that has vengeance on their minds. Lay the points here as NO rolls.
THE PICK: NO-6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 1st, 2019 1:00pm
NY Jets (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-11), (5-6) ATS, (0-5) HOME, (1-4) ATS CINNCY+3 ½
LW, CINNCY lost @HOME to PITT 16-10. I liked CINNCY +6 ½ because they have nothing to lose and were playing good enough in some games to keep things close and cover. PITT has been wishy washy and CINNCY has been playing their hearts out even though they stink. The score could have been a lot worse after CINNCY turned the ball over late in the game but, PITT just looked for the win and not to run up the score. CINNCY is terrible and 1st year HC Zac Taylor is on the hotseat whether he knows it or not. If this team goes 0-16, he may be gone after the season but, this team needs a major overhaul from top to bottom. There may even be some house cleaning in the organization as well. CINNCY #26 TOT OFF w/ #20 PASS OFF & #28 RUSH OFF & #32 TOT DEF w/ #21 PASS DEF & #32 RUSH DEF. They need improvement everywhere. Plus, what to do with QB Andy Dalton after the season? Do you keep him, release him or trade him for draft picks? CINNCY hasn’t won a playoff game in like forever. Just announced, that Andy Dalton will return as the starting QB for CINNCY as Ryan Finley returns to the backup position. According to HC Zac Taylor, Dalton gives CINNCY the best chance to win. Watch out NYJ. LW, NYJ dominated OAK in NY, 34-3. I liked NYJ in this one for many reasons and they didn’t disappoint. If they had only played like this from the beginning of the season then maybe it wouldn’t be a lost season. It got so bad for OAK that QB Derek Carr was pulled in the 3rd qtr. That’s pretty early, giving up the ship. L7 CINNCY vs NYJ, NYJ 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. HOME 7-0 ATS. NYJ 5-6-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 35-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 20-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 1-7 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp off BB SU losses. NYJ 5-0 ATS as a FAV >3pts after scoring 28>pts. CINNCY 87 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 6-6-1 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. CINNCY 43-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 40-34-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 13-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 15-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 6-7 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 2-10 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. NYJ cannot lose this game or the NY media will crucify HC Adam Gase. They already don’t like him and the fans don’t like him either but this is a game that NYJ cannot lose and need to show strength. NYJ #1 RUSH DEF was dominant vs OAK RB Josh Jacobs LW holding him to 34 yards. This has all the makings of a trap game for NYJ. Ryan Finley was 0-3 in his three starts but in the games vs OAK & PITT, the games were relatively close. They were completely blownout by BALT but in Finley’s defense, other teams have been blownout by BALT so it’s not just on his shoulders. The O-LINE for CINNCY is one of the main problems because they have given up 40 sacks while having one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL. NYJ will stuff the run and put it all on the shoulders of QB Dalton who will be bummed rush into making mistakes which the NYJ should capitalize on. NYJ could actually turn this season into a winning season because they could win most of their games going forward except vs BALT. I don’t think NYJ are winning that one. I still like NYJ here even though Dalton is back. He makes bad decisions and hasn’t learned anything in his career. Maybe CINNCY is showcasing him for another team and some draft picks. Lay the points here as NYJ should roll over CINNCY with ease unless they come out flat and give CINNCY hope.
THE PICK: NYJ-3 ½ 5 STARS
Tennessee Titans (6-5), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS TENN+2 ½
On TNF, INDY couldn’t beat HOU and lost @HOU 20-17. TE Eric Ebron has been put on IR because of his ankle & RB Marlon Mack is out because of his broken hand. INDY did rush for 175 yards vs HOU but somehow couldn’t muster up a win. INDY had a chance to win it in the 4th qtr but couldn’t get it going and took a loss. LW, TENN @HOME was all over JAGS, 42-20. Not only did TENN RB Derrick Henry rush for 159 yards & 2TDS but QB Ryan Tannehill threw 2TDS with 0INTS. The only drawbacks here were that both of them had a lost fumble. However, TENN was leading 7-3 at the half when they exploded for a 35-3 lead in the 3rd qtr with four straight TDS. Turn your sets off there. This season TENN has been very inconsistent but they still have a shot at a wildcard berth. These two teams met in wk 2 @TENN with INDY winning 19-17. That was a game where Marcus Mariota was the QB for TENN. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill has been giving this team new life and new life to his career as he has been 4-1 as the starter with his only loss @CAR. In that game he had 2INTS. In no other games so far this season Ryan has had more than 1INT. L12 INDY (H) vs TENN, INDY 10-2 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L25 TENN vs INDY, HOME 12-10-2 ATS 1NL. TENN 4-12 ATS L16 in 1st of BB RG’s. TENN 27-30 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 23-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 26-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 5-1 ATS as a DIV DOG off DD ATS win. TENN 6-4 ATS L10 after JAGS. TENN 3-19 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 2-13 ATS after scoring 35>pts. TENN 0-8 ATS AWAY after scoring 35>pts. TENN 1-17 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 4-13 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 off HOME gm. INDY 31-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 33-27 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. INDY 30-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 6-2 ATS after HOU. INDY 11-8-1 ATS L20 as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 9-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV vs div opp. INDY 1-7 ATS vs .500>opp off div gm. TENN has a tendency to lose games that they need to win. That was definitely true with Mariota at the helm. But we’ll see how Tannehill lives up to this game with a possible wild card spot up for grabs. The matchup here is, INDY #3 RUSH OFF vs TENN #12 RUSH DEF. But remember, most of INDY’s rushing success was with RB Marlon Mack and he’s out. TENN DEF needs to step it up and have INDY QB Jacoby Brissett under pressure. There is a revenge factor for TENN here and this is a bounceback game for INDY but right now TENN is the better team. The team that wins here will have an inside track at a wild card spot. The loser will have an almost impossible task at staying afloat for the playoffs. This game could go down to the wire but I like TENN to win outright.
THE PICK: TENN+2 ½ 5 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6), (4-7) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (2-9), (5-6) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-4) ATS MIA+9
LW, PHILLY took it on the chin. Yes they were without RB Jordan Howard, WR Nelson Agholor & WR Alshon Jeffery but, you still have to go out there and win. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is showing everyone that PHILLY should have kept QB Nick Foles instead. In the game vs SEA, Wentz had 2INTS, 2 lost fumbles & was sacked 3x. You can’t win a game when your QB turns the ball over 4x. SEA just toyed with PHILLY because the score could have been a lot worse than 17-9. The last TD that PHILLY scored was with :20 left in the game and it was garbage time. What kept PHILLY in this game was the fact that they sacked SEA QB Russell Wilson 6x and forced him to lose a fumble. Whatever you’re thinking it’s over for MIA. They got their two upset wins and now they probably will not win another game this season except maybe vs CINNCY. LW @CLEVE, MIA was a BIG DOG. Even so I still liked CLEVE to roll. They did 41-24 and the score wasn’t even that close. The score was CLEVE 28-0 in the 2nd qtr and MIA fought through the 3rd qtr to make it 28-17. But then CLEVE made it 41-17 and MIA got a garbage time td to make the final score 41-24. CLEVE was a 10 ½ FAV and I liked CLEVE big because they hadn’t exploded on anyone in a while and MIA was ripe for the pickings. MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher for MIA with 45 yards. When your QB is your leading rusher that is not good. It is a recipe for disaster. All of MIA’s stats for this game are in catchup and they still don’t look good. What will happen vs a motivated PHILLY team. PHILLY 7-15 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. L3 MIA vs PHILLY, PHILLY 2-1 SUATS. PHILLY 35-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 24-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 14-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. PHILLY 18-6 ATS L24 vs non-conf opps. PHILLY 4-13 ATS L17 before NYG. PHILLY 7-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV after scoring 10<pts. MIA 18-11-1 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. MIA 28-43 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 26-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 12-21 ATS L33 in DEC. MIA 7-5-1 ATS L13 before NYJ. MIA 18-12 ATS L30 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 3-14-1 ATS L18 after allowing 35>pts. MIA 0-9 ATS as a DOG >2pts after allowing 35>pts. This last stat sums up the whole MIA season. This is a desperate game for PHILLY. If they lose this game they will be essentially out of the playoff picture. After (2) two game losing streaks in 2019, PHILLY has come back to win big, @GB 34-27 & @BUFF 31-13. I see a trend here and their backs are against the wall. If just one of their stars is healthy for this game PHILLY will go hog wild unless they beat themselves. MIA has given up except for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. But he doesn’t have enough firepower around him to stop a PHILLY team that is desperate for a win and will break out all the tricks. If CLEVE scored 41 points on this MIA team, how many points should PHILLY score? Lay the points here as PHILLY wins and is still looking a possible wild card berth.
THE PICK: PHILLY-9 5 STARS
GB Packers (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NY Giants (2-9), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS NYG+6 ½
On SNF, GB was slammed @ SF 37-8. I liked SF @HOME because SF has played well in PRIMETIME & @HOME. Plus, they were going to be pumped for this one. The public was liking Rodgers & CO a lot but, I wasn’t buying it. It got so bad that Aaron Rodgers was even pulled from this game, when does that ever happen? The GB DEF didn’t create any turnovers and the score was SF 23-0 at halftime. Basically turn your sets off there. The OFF stats for GB are irrelevant because they were playing catchup the whole game but, couldn’t get anything going. The SF DEF had the GB number. SF sacked Rodgers 5x & forced him to lose a fumble on the opening drive which was turned then turned into a TD. The GB DEF was not there and SF ran up and down the field. LW, NYG had a chance at beating CHI. But, CHI LB Khalil Mack had a strip sack of NYG QB Daniel Jones and Jones fumbled and lost the ball to be recovered by CHI deep in NYG territory. This was at a time when CHI was only leading 13-7 and the game was still in reach. The fumble turned into a TD by CHI. Later, NYG were able to sustain a TD drive but it was too little and too late. However it was good for the cover but not the win. Final score CHI 19-14. NYG don’t have a good DEF but CHI has a bad OFF, hence the low score of this game. NYG #27 TOT DEF. But when NYG play against a prolific OFF, they have no shot. NYG have lost seven straight games and this one looks like it will be a loss too. L7 GB vs NYG, GB 4-3 SU but 2-4-1 ATS. GB 15-18 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. GB 34-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 55-31-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 5-7 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV 6>pts. GB 3-10 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s. GB 15-4 ATS as a FAV <7pts in 2nd of BB RG’s. GB 1-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs non-div opp. NYG 9-16 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. NYG 41-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 34-25 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB is on a serious bounceback. After their two previous losses this season they have won the next game decidedly and there was no doubt about the game. NYG HC Pat Shurmur is a terrible coach and he does not have the skills to teach QB Daniel Jones how to get better. NYG need to get rid of him & GM Gettleman if they want to get better. NYG need a coach who will groom Jones and make him better. NYG QB Daniel Jones has turnoveridous and if GB wants to keep pace with MINN and the rest of the NFC for the playoffs they need to pressure him big time and win here. Rodgers should have a field day on OFF. GB should score 40 points in this game. At least 1TD should be scored by the DEF. NYG TE Evan Engram has been out with a mid foot sprain and he is questionable for this game. Lay the points here as GB rolls all over NYG. Even though the GB DEF has gotten worse since the season has progressed they will stop NYG. GB will do whatever they have to do to contain the NYG OFF.
THE PICK: GB-6 ½ 5 STARS
Cleveland Browns (5-6), (4-6-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), (5-5-1) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS PITT+2
LW, PITT was @CINNCY and beat CINNCY 16-10. PITT could have scored a dummy TD at the end which would have covered the 6 ½ they were laying but instead just ran out the clock. They were given the ball when CINNCY QB Ryan Finley fumbled deep in his own territory. Anyway, during the game PITT QB Mason Rudolph was benched and Delvin Hodges was put in. Hodges ended up throwing a TD which was the difference in the game. PITT kicked 2fgs in the 4th qtr to seal the deal. PITT was able to get their run game going vs CINNCY for 159 yards but didn’t get any TDS. It wasn’t a real productive game for PITT but they did get the win. RB James Connor is doubtful for this game & WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable for this game. The DEF for PITT allowed only 1TD from CINNCY & sacked CINNCY QB Ryan Finley 4x. LW, CLEVE beat up MIA, so what. CLEVE was supposed to do that and they did 41-24. The score wasn’t even that close as CLEVE stormed out to a 28-0 lead before MIA kicked a fg to make it 28-3. CLEVE had a very good day offensively but CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield still managed to throw an INT. On the ensuing drive MIA turned it into a TD to make it CLEVE 28-10. But the CLEVE DEF without DE Myles Garrett is weaker than it was before, don’t kid yourself. This game will be a very tight game with emotions running high. Turnovers will loom large. L12 PITT(H) vs CLEVE, PITT 12-0 SU but 6-5-1 ATS. L25 CLEVE vs PITT, DOG 12-12-1 ATS. PITT 4-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 27-24 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 20-13 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 1-6-1 ATS L8 after CINNCY. PITT 7-4-1 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. PITT 12-3 ATS in gms 9-12 vs <.500 div opp off SU win. CLEVE 2-3 ATS L5 as a ROAD FAV. CLEVE 12-20-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEVE 6-10-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEVE 23-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEVE 2-12 ATS off DD SU win. CLEVE 5-6 ATS L11 before CINNCY. CLEVE 1-8 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEVE 1-8-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. These two teams played a knock’em sock’em drawn out, penalty ridden, ejection filled game on TNF a few weeks ago where CLEVE dominated PITT in CLEVE. PITT HC Mike Tomlin is probably reminding the team what happened and how the PITT DEF was non-existent in that game. PITT has vengeance for this game and they certainly will look to put pressure on Mayfield from the two outside LBs Bud Dupree & TJ Watt. Also, CB Minkah Fitzpatrick is due for an INT. This game is basically a PICK’EM game but PITT is fighting for a wild card and if they lose this game their season would essentially be over because they would be tied with CLEVE who has the tie-breaker.
THE PICK: PITT+2 5 STARS
Washington Redskins (2-9), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (5-6), (6-4-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS WASH+10
LW, CAR HC Ron (Shipwrecked) Rivera, it’s no longer Riverboat Ron. He made more costly suspect play calls in a game that CAR could ill afford to lose. With the score tied 31-31 and 1st & goal CAR got no points and a missed fg. Hey Ron, you ever hear of play action pass? CAR set up formation telegraphing their plays. They should have set up as a run play and make it look like a run and have TE Greg Olson run all alone in the left corner of the endzone for an easy TD. Rivera should finally be gone after the season. CAR lost the last two out of three games on his suspect play calling. He always looks lost when the camera shows him and he’s got to go. Hey Jeff, tell us how you really feel. LOL He’s terrible. CAR will probably not make the playoffs and Rivera should be fired on Black Monday. LW, WASH won @HOME vs DET. Now it wasn’t the fact that WASH played such a great game but DET played a lousy game which contributed to WASH winning the game. WASH QB Dwayne Haskins had 1INT & 1 lost fumble and he only completed 13 passes. Not exactly a stellar game. DET QB Jeff Driskel threw 3INTS which one of them led to the winning fg for WASH. How do you lose to WASH? They are terrible in every category. L7 WASH vs CAR, CAR 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS. WASH 12-1 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 10-4 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 34-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 35-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 33-19 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 25-23 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CAR 13-4 ATS @ HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 10-4 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 4-7 ATS before ATL. CAR # 27 RUSH DEF. WASH should let RBs Adrian Peterson & Derrius Guice just run wild on every play. CAR can’t stop the run and after a while CAR will be tired. Then when the CAR DEF is expecting the run, use the play action pass. CAR has nothing to play for after losing the last three straight games and WASH may have a little moxy for this game but WASH QB Dwayne Haskins still has a lot to learn in the NFL. However, I don’t see this game being a blowout by any means and CAR has slipped lately losing their last four of five games. Take the points here as WASH finds a way to keep this game close since they have nothing to lose. However it could turn into a blowout if Haskins has turnoveridous. But, CAR is already done and it seems that their DEF can’t stop anyone.
THE PICK: WASH+10 3 STARS
TB Bucs (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS TB+1 ½
LW, TB went to ATL and took care of business. After ATL made some major adjustments and shocked everyone by destroying NO & CAR, they probably thought they would do the same to TB. Well, TB shocked ATL, @ATL. ATL was actually leading 10-7 in the 1st qtr but then TB took control and stormed out to a 25-10 lead. By then ATL was playing catchup and TB was keeping ATL from making a comeback. ATL QB Matt Ryan was pulled after he was strip sacked and the fumble was recovered for a td by Ndamukong Suh, of all people, which basically sealed the game for TB. Matt Schaub came in but it was too little too late and TB had a 35-22 win. TB QB Jameis Winston had 3TDS but he also had 2INTS. One INT led to an ATL TD that temporarily gave ATL the lead in the 1st qtr. The DEF for TB sacked ATL QB Matt Ryan 6x. This is crucial because they have the JAGS next and Nick Foles is not that mobile. LW, JAGS were crushed by TENN. TENN exploded for 4TDS in the 3rd qtr which made the score 35-3. This was after TENN was leading 7-3 at the half. JAGS played catchup the rest of the way but, to no avail, losing 42-20. JAGS gave up 219 yards rushing, mostly to TENN RB Derrick Henry. But JAGS DEF also let TENN QB Ryan Tannehill pick his spots and complete 14-18 passes for 259 yds, 2TDS, 0INTS, but 1 lost fumble for Tannehill & Henry. Henry’s fumble occurred when the score was 35-11 and JAGS scored as a result of it. But the DEF for TENN kept JAGS QB Nick Foles in check not letting him throw TDS and not letting him be able to scramble for significant yardage. Also, TENN sacked Foles 3x. L3 JAGS vs TB, JAGS 2-1 SUATS. TB 6-11-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. TB 22-36-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 32-40-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 19-17-2 ATS L38 AWAY vs non-div. TB 9-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG after scoring 35>pts. TB 2-6 ATS L8 off DD SU win. JAGS 9-9 ATS L18 in 1st of BB HG’s. JAGS 22-19 ATS as a FAV in DEC. JAGS 29-25 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 4-26 SU & 7-23 ATS L30 vs NFC. JAGS 6-2 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SU losses. JAGS 8-2 ATS after TENN. JAGS 1-9 ATS L10 vs NFC SOUTH. JAGS 0-4 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs div. Both of these teams are out of the playoff picture but JAGS have been a big disappointment ever since 2017 and may have to do some reshuffling of the roster BIG TIME in the off season. TB doesn’t need as much retooling because they have some good players and some ones that are good have been injured. They need a player here and a player there but no major overhauling. However, Winston has to cut down on his turnovers. TB #4 PASS OFF vs JAGS # 10 PASS DEF. Winston will look to use his weapons as much as possible and get the ball down the field. This is a winnable game for TB but there should be no let down for TB after the big win @ATL. JAGS were just beaten badly and they may look to bounceback by I think they come up short. This game has a chance to be a shootout and could go either way based on turnovers by either team but I’m thinking that Winston has a better game where he doesn’t turn the ball over and TB gets the win. JAGS will try to use RB Leonard Fournette but TB will be waiting. TB #2 RUSH DEF. As I said, this game could go either way because of the turnover factor for both teams. Winston leads the NFL in INTS & JAGS haven’t been consistent in anything but futility. This game could go down to the wire with a fg deciding it but I like TB to win outright.
THE PICK: TB+1 ½ 3 STARS
SF 49ers (10-1), (6-5) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2), (7-3-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS SF+6
LW, on SNF, SF annihilated GB 37-8. It was 23-0 at halftime and it was time to go to sleep. From the opening possession SF DEF strip sacked GB QB Aaron Rodgers and then a few plays later took it into the endzone. The DEF didn’t let Rodgers & CO get going. A lot of people liked GB in this game but I felt that SF was not going to let Rodgers get comfortable and they sacked him 5x. His passing numbers were 20-33, 104 yds, 1TD, 0INTS but that one lost fumble put GB behind the eight ball from the get go. It got so bad that Rodgers was pulled from the game. When does that happen? SF held a clinic and Jimmy G led the way. SF TE George Kittle had 6 catches for 129 yards & 1td. It seemed like everyone on the SF OFF contributed. LW, on MNF, BALT destroyed LAR @LAR, 45-6. LAR managed only 2fgs and BALT QB Lamar Jackson put on a clinic. He passed for 5TDS & 0INTS & also rushed for 95 yards which was over 4x what the LAR rushed for at 22yds. BALT rushed for 285 yards and everyone got involved. The BALT DEF forced LAR QB Jared Goff into 2INTS and rushed him all night into making bad throws when he needed them most. The game was BALT 28-6 at halftime and you could have turned your sets off there. I like BALT here because I felt that LAR just haven’t looked the same since last season and Goff has regressed this season. I have said it all along that he is one that needs guys around him to do very well for him to do very well. He doesn’t create, he waits. That was certainly the case vs BALT. The matchups in this game BALT #2 TOT OFF vs SF #1 TOT DEF. BALT #19 PASS OFF vs SF #1 PASS DEF. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs SF #19 RUSH DEF. SF #2 RUSH OFF sv BALT #3 RUSH DEF. Let’s see who steps up and becomes the stars of this game. SF 11-7-1 ATS L19 in 1st of BB RG’s. SF 23-41 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 24-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 13-5 ATS L18 as a non-div ROAD DOG 3>pts off non-div gm. SF 6-12-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 off BB Su wins vs opp off DD SU win. SF 0-6 ATS L^ as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. BALT 36-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 33-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 7-11-1 ATS L19 vs NFC. BALT BALT 6-19 -1 ATS L26 @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 3-10 ATS in gms 9-12 off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. Right now BALT is looking quite smart for trading QB Joe Flacco in the off season. BALT is poised to win the NFC NORTH and become the #2 seed in the AFC but there is this game first. Both of these teams are coming off blowout wins and both teams have explosive OFFs. This is certainly the game of the year for the 2019 season so far. But I think it will be a low scoring game as opposed to what others are thinking. The SF DEF will look to see what NE did in their game with BALT and make some adjustments. Remember, BALT does have two losses so this team can be beat. Both teams will have to do some different things on OFF because the DEFs will be waiting. That is where the low scoring comes in. You will see 2nd & 3rd options being used in this game because the 1st option will be covered. It will be a good game and turnovers will loom large. I like that SF is getting points here and this is certainly a test for both QBs. It should be an exciting game and should been flexed for the SNF spot instead of NE vs HOU. SF has to sure up their run DEF so that this game does not get out of hand. Guys in the SF secondary need to shadow Jackson so he doesn’t take off. Take the points here as SF keeps it close and has a shot at winning.
THE PICK: SF+6 3 STARS
Sunday December 1st, 2019 4:00pm
LA Rams (6-5), (6-4-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-1-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1), (8-3) ATS, (1-3-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS ARZ+3
LAR were spanked @HOME vs BALT on MNF 45-6. LAR were beaten in every facet of the game and BALT QB Lamar Jackson put on a clinic. At times, LAR QB Jared Goff looked like a deer in the headlights when he was in the pocket trying to find either an open receiver or as the BALT DEF came swarming in on him. I didn’t think hey would win vs BALT because they struggled mightily the previous week vs CHI. Let’s face it, LAR is not the same team that went to the SuperBowl in 2018. Goff certainly looks like he has regressed and when BALT cam a coming, he did not adjust. He looked lost and confused. He is not tough enough and to be honest I never had too much faith in him. He needed to adjust in the SuperBowl vs NE and instead he was predictable. This has carried over to the regular season and LAR should serious consider without much fanfare, looking at anther option at QB. For ARZ, they are coming off a bye. ARZ 5-5-2 ATS since 2007 the wk after their bye. However, before their bye ARZ has lost four straight games. They had three close games, two with SF & one with TB but a blowout @NO. With the addition of RB Kenyon Drake, the OFF for ARZ has become a little exciting & unpredictable. He has added a spark that was not there before. ARZ QB Kyler Murray has gotten better and wiser as the season has progressed because he is making less mistakes which gives hope to ARZ for the future. Now if their DEF could only get better, it would make a big difference in the won-loss columns. ARZ #31 TOT DEF. Only LBs Chandler Jones(12.5 sacks) & Terrell Suggs (5.5 sacks) have been consistent on this DEF. L12 ARZ (H) vs LAR, ARZ 6-6 SUATS. L18 ARZ vs LAR, ARZ 9-9 ATS. L16 ARZ vs LAR, ROAD 10-6 ATS. ARZ 14-13-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 8-5 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. ARZ 32-21 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. ARZ 38-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 44-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 9-9-1 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 24-35 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 25-42 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 30-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ has a legitimate shot here because they should be well rested and ready to go. LAR knows that their season is over and that they will not be going to the playoffs. They need some retooling and tweaking in certain areas to get this team back to the level it was in 2018. They are probably very deflated after the loss @HOME vs BALT. It was a very bad loss and BALT picked apart any deficiencies that LAR had. This will be an exciting game but ARZ will be pumped and will come out with a victory possibly by a last second fg supplied by a turnover from yours truly, Jared Goff.
THE PICK: ARZ+3 5 STARS
LA Chargers (4-7), (3-8) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-8), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS DEN+2 ½
LW, DEN didn’t even show up @BUFF. DEN let BUFF rush for 244 yards on 47attempts. DEN QB Brandon Allen completed 10 passes for 82 yards, 1INT & was sacked 4x. DEN rushed for a total of 85 yards. Just a terrible game. GM John Elway is probably scratching his head and losing a lot of sleep because this team is again terrible. On paper, DEN has the right personnel even if they traded away WR Emmanuel Sanders. I don’t know why they did that but I’m sure there are behind the scene reasons. But going forward this team has had three nice wins @LAC, TENN & CLEVE but, at times has looked like a complete mess. Two weeks ago they had MINN on the ropes @MINN to the final second and almost pulled out the upset on the road, only to come up short 27-23. Then LW, they come out completely flat @BUFF who hasn’t beaten anyone significant. Beating MINN would have been their SuperBowl because MINN is going deep into the playoffs. But going forward, DEN has teams on their schedule that are in the playoff hunt and probably look at DEN as a game that has to be won. LAC is coming off a bye. LAC 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they lost in Mexico vs KC & they lost on TNF @OAK. LAC QB Philip Rivers threw 7INTS in those two games which gave no chance for LAC to win either game. But the running game for LAC has picked up with RB Melvin Gordon & Austin Ekeler finding a rhythm as 1-2 punch. WR Keenan Allen is River’s FAV receiver but the OFF as a whole has been pathetic. This team has looked good vs CHI & GB then very bad vs OAK & KC, go figure. LAC #5 PASS OFF vs DEN #5 PASS DEF. LAC needs to rely more on the run game because when Rivers is under pressure, he makes mistakes and usually they are very big mistakes like PICK6s. L12 LAC@DEN, LAC 6-6 SU but 9-2-1 ATS. L25 LAC vs DEN, ROAD 17-7-1 ATS. L25 LAC vs DEN, FAV 13-11-1 ATS. LAC 8-9-1 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 8-6 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. LAC 28-31 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 33-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 33-24 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 10-5 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. DEN 24-32 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 18-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 24-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 1-10 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 vs <500 opp. DEN 1-7 ATS as a div DOG >1pt off DD SU loss. There is a little payback for LAC because they lost @HOME vs DEN in wk 5. Rivers didn’t have a great day and threw 48x with 0TDS & 2INTS. Look for Rivers to bounce back after two very bad games and get the OFF going against a team that has packed it in for the 2019 season. If LAC doesn’t win this game, HC Anthony Lynn should seriously be fired. I like LAC to win convincingly and Rivers could run around like a little kid and act like he just won the SuperBowl. If anyone thinks that this guy deserves to be in the HOF, theiy’re crazy. But for this game, take LAC and lay the points.
THE PICK: LAC-2 ½ 5 STARS
Oakland Raiders (6-5), (6-5) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ KC Chiefs (7-4), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS OAK+10
LW, OAK had their heads handed to them on a silver platter @NYJ, 34-3. OAK QB Derek Carr was lifted from the game in the 3rd qtr. RB Josh Jacobs was stopped dead in his tracks for 34 yards rushing. I saw it coming because of a few factors. First, they barely beat CINNCY in OAK and second, OAK has traditionally played poorly when they traveled EAST and played early in the day. They were not ready and it showed. Plus, NYJ was ready for them as I knew they would be. KC is coming off a bye. KC 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, KC beat LAC in Mexico 24-17. But KC was aided by the fact that LAC QB Philip Rivers threw 4INTS. His stats were inflated for that game because KC was 24-9 and LAC was playing catchup to no avail. However, the KC DEF is vulnerable and if a big decision is needed late in the game we can count on KC HC Andy Reid to make the wrong one. OAK #12 RUSH OFF vs KC #30 RUSH DEF. You know that OAK RB Josh Jacobs is looking to bounce back from his dismal performance vs the NYJ so OAK HC Jon Gruden will look to run as much as possible to take some pressure off of his sensitive QB Derek Carr. Let’s face it, if you put a little pressure on Carr he folds like a house of cards. He’s not tough enough to adjust. Look how he did vs the NYJ. L12 KC(H) vs OAK, KC 6-6 SU but 5-7 ATS. L25 KC vs OAK, RAOD 15-10 SU & 17-8 ATS. L25 OAK s KC, DOG 14-9 ATS 2PICK’EMS. OAK 8-6-2 ATS L16 in 2nd of BB RG’s. OAK 24-37 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. OAK 20-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. OAK 28-51-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. OAK 6-1 ATS L7 after scoring 7<pts. OAK 18-3 ATS as a DIV ROAD DOG >3pts off SU loss. OAK 1-10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.500 opp. KC 33-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 35-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 35-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 1-7 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> as a FAV vs opp off AWAY gm. This game will be a dogfight and there is a revenge factor for OAK in that KC beat OAK @OAK in wk 2, 28-10. This is a big spread for KC and I don’t think this game will be that big of a win points wise. If KC does win the game it will be by seven points or less. Take the points here and with a little luck OAK who is in a bounceback and actually playing for something late in the season for something other than a high draft pick could actually win this game outright if they play a smart game. Don’t be surprised if OAK looks good in this game after losing to the NYJ. KC has been very inconsistent in 2019. They had a nice comeback win vs MINN but other than that have not really had a nice win since wk 3 vs BALT. KC has lost @HOME to INDY, HOU & GB so OAK has a legitimate shot here. This should be a good game and could go down to the wire.
THE PICK: OAK+10 5 STARS
Sunday December 1st, 2019 8:20pm
NE Patriots (10-1), (7-4) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (7-4), (5-6) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (1-4) ATS HOU+3
On TNF, HOU @HOME barely beat INDY 20-17. HOU HC Bill O’Brien plays a very conservative game and let INDY stick around until the end of the game. Instead of being aggressive and putting the dagger in INDY, HOU had to wait until the end to win the game. This game was boring to watch. But, to note, INDY did run all over HOU for 175 yards. Take note NE. HOU WRs Will Fuller & DeAndre Hopkins had their usual good games vs a secondary that is already suspect. Hey INDY lost @HOME to MIA. This game went back and forth with INDY actually leading in the 3rd qtr. HOU mustered up a drive early in the 4th qtr that baited INDY to saying, let’s see what you can do. HOU fans had to hold their breath while INDY got the ball back 2x but couldn’t do anything with it. HOU QB Deshaun Watson has not been running with the ball like he has in the past probably because he doesn’t want to get injured. Then HOU is toast. LW, NE @HOME took it to DAL 13-9. I liked NE laying 6 ½ and if DAL HC Jason Garrett had any brains he would have gone for the TD instead of settling for a fg figuring that DAL would not see the ball again. Well, Garrett made the wrong call as usual and owner Jerry Jones basically called his coach out after the game. That’s why Garrett’s gone after this season. DAL was running the ball successfully but Garrett put the game on Prescott’s shoulders and he threw 1INT and had some others that were questionable. NE didn’t even have their B game with the bad weather and they still managed to beat down DAL. Now they play in a dome. If NE gets some of their OFF weapons back and get it going, this game could be a blowout. L8 NE vs HOU, NE 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS. NE 32-20 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 47-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 3-5 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. NE 13-15-1 ATS as a FAV on SNF. NE 16-9 ATS AWAY on SNF. HOU 5-9 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. HOU 7-5 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. HOU 21-14 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 23-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 11-15-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs non-div since 2003. HOU 3-5 ATS off SU DIV HOME win vs non-div opp. HOU 0-7 ATS L7 vs .750>opp. HOU 1-5-1 ATS L7 on SNF. HOU 2-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. HOU 2-9 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> vs .500> off SU win. HOU 4-0 ATS L4 after TNF. Let’s be honest, do you think HOU is going to beat this team? Do you think they will score any points other than some fgs? NE #2 TOT DEF w/ #2 PASS DEF & #10 RUSH DEF. DAL with their #1 OFF could only muster up 3fgs. This is another tune up game for Tom Brady & CO to get things goings for the playoffs. Plus, if the OFF gets going for NE, how many points will they score? Lay the points here as NE gets their OFF going and steam rolls all over HOU. If you’re thinking upset here HC Bill O’Brien is not that smart. Nighty night.
THE PICK: NE-3 5 STARS
Monday December 2nd, 2019 8:15pm
Minnesota Vikings (8-3), (6-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (9-2), (6-5) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (0-5) ATS MINN+3
LW, SEA beat a PHILLY team that had a lot of guys out of their lineup. However, SEA forced PHILLY QB Carson Wentz to throw 2INTS, lose 2fumbles and sacked him 3x. SEA also recovered one other fumble as well. The DEF played a very good game and only allowed 1TD with about :20 left in the game. The OFF managed only 2TDS while playing a little sloppy themselves. SEA QB Russell Wilson had 1TD, 1INT & 1lost fumble. Also, he only completed 13 passes. Wilson was also sacked 6x. SEA RBs Rashaad Penny & Chris Carson combined for 155 yds rushing which took some of that pressure off of Wilson. MINN #6 RUSH DEF. MINN is coming off a bye. MINN 5-7 ATS since 2007 the wk after their bye. Before their bye, they spotted DEN a 20-0 halftime lead in MINN before MINN woke up. MINN QB Kirk Cousins threw for 4TDS in the 2nd half but still almost lost the game after DEN missed a pass in the endzone that would have won it in regulation. MINN WR Adam Thielen has been out with his hamstring injury and still questionable for this game. They could certainly use him here. MINN has been playing very well and right now is in a tie with GB for the lead in the NFC NORTH. L7 SEA vs MINN, SEA 5-2 SUATS. MINN 30-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 34-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MINN 21-12-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 17-8 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 11-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. MINN 0-7 ATS L7 AWAY on MNF. MINN 9-3 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 8-3 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. SEA 32-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 42-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 10-5 ATS on MNF. SEA 9-5 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. SEA 8-1 ATS as a MNF FAV <10pts. SEA 17-2 ATS in gms 9-12 vs opp w/revenge. SEA 2-5 ATS L7 before LAR. This is a statement game for MINN because they need to win this game to keep pace and if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. SEA is a very good team but they have parts that are vulnerable like their O-LINE. If they can pressure Wilson and make him make throws that he doesn’t want to make, MINN can win this game. The secondary for SEA is also vulnerable as they do give up the big play and can be scored upon. There are some young guys there and they are still learning and Cousins needs to take what the DEF gives him. Also, there is a little revenge here because last year in SEA, MINN was beaten badly by SEA 21-7. But the underlying story was Kirk Cousin’s dismal performance that had people questioning his signing in the first place. Cousins would like to redeem himself here. I like MINN with the points because even if SEA does win outright, it will be by a hair. Take the points.
THE PICK: MINN+3 3 STARS