2019 NFL WEEK 14
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 5th, 2019 8:20pm
Dallas Cowboys (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (6-6), (4-8) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS CHI+3
Last Thurs, DAL came up as a big dud @HOME vs BUFF. DAL HC Jason Garrett is “dead man walking” in DAL. He is certainly gone after the last game that DAL plays in 2019. When this team needed a big bounceback win after losing @NE and combined with suspect play calling ala Garrett, DAL looked lame for a Thanksgiving HOME game that they needed to win. DAL went with a game plan that featured much more passing than rushing and that was a failure waiting to happen. RB Ezekial Elliott rushed the ball a measely 12x for 71 yards while QB Dak Prescott threw the ball 49x. DAL cannot win that way. The DEF for DAL didn’t help as they gave up 26 unanswered points from BUFF before the OFF finally scored a garbage time td late in the 4th qtr. Also, BUFF WR Cole Beasley formerly of DAL had a nice homecoming as he caught 6 passes for 110 yds & 1TD. Nice way to haunt a team that didn’t want you anymore. Last Thurs, CHI beat a team with a 3rd string QB & a 30th ranked DEF 24-20. CHI was trailing most of this game and needed a long TD drive, late in the 4th qtr to win this game. The CHI DEF didn’t impress at all because they let DET QB David Blough lead the team up and down the field and pick apart a CHI secondary that last year seemed impenetrable. Oh, and let’s not think that CHI QB Mitch Trubisky has turned any talent corners just yet as he was playing against a team that hasn’t stopped anyone. Let’s see how he plays against a team that is playoff bound, not toilet bound. L7 DAL vs CHI, DAL 4-3 SUATS. DAL 16-9-1 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 24-42-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 26-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 12-3 ATS as a conf FAV 4<pts off DD SU loss. DAL 3-0 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU win. DAL 1-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. CHI 10-12 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. CHI 25-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 35-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 5-4 ATS L9 before GB. CHI 5-7 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. CHI 3-7 ATS on Thurs. CHI 3-15 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 1-7 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 0-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. CHI 3-12 ATS L15 vs NFC EAST. CHI 1-8 ATS on Thurs vs opp off SU loss. Believe it or not, DAL is still is in control of their own destiny in the NFC EAST because PHILLY is just as bad and is trailing DAL. DAL OLB Leighton Vander Esch is still out with his neck injury and LB Sean Lee has shown signs of age even though when he is in there, he is hard to beat. DAL S Jeff Heath who sat out the game vs BUFF with injuries to both shoulders is questionable for this game. DAL needs to take control of this game and their season and coming off two straight losses they should be ready to bounceback and show that they still have some life even if their HC is a goner. CHI is coming off a two game winning streak but is playing for pride as MINN & GB are destined for the playoffs as CHI will not be making it in 2019. Lay the points here as DAL is desperate for a win or otherwise they are in a tank mode to really get rid of their HC.
THE PICK: DAL-3 3 STARS
Sunday December 8th, 2019 1:00pm
Carolina Panthers (5-7), (6-5-1) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (3-9), (3-9) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS CAR+3
So CAR finally fired HC Ron Rivera. It’s about time. Not just this season but Ron has had many play calls that were suspect and cost his team victories. You would have thought that over time he would get better, not worse. Three out of the last four games were winnable with better play calls but, Ron was clueless as usual. Perry Fewell who was in charge of the Defensive Backs on CAR is the interim HC. As for LW, CAR was completely embarrassed @HOME as a BIG FAV, -10 vs WASH. I said WASH should run all day on these guys and they did. CAR can’t stop anyone against the run and WASH ran over CAR to an easy win. What started out as a season at 4-2 quickly turned into a 5-7. Also, TE Greg Olsen suffered a big concussion and he is probably sitting this one out. LW on TNF, ATL was taking it on the chin 26-9 @HOME vs NO. You could say that it was a little payback from NO after they were beaten in NO a few weeks earlier by ATL 26-9. ATL tried to make a comeback with too little too late and the score ended up being NO 26-18. But NO almost blew it because ATL recovered three straight on side kicks. Yes, one of the kicks was nullified by a mysterious off-side penalty but NO didn’t make any adjustments knowing that another one was coming. Way to coach, Sean Payton! L12 ATL(H) vs CAR, ATL 9-3 SUATS. L17 CAR vs ATL, HOME 11-6 ATS. L15 CAR vs ATL, DOG 8-7 ATS. CAR 29-22 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 32-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 35-19 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 8-4 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 8-3 ATS as a DIV DOG >1pts w/revenge. CAR 13-1 ATS as a DOG vs .333<opp. ATL 26-30 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 28-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 32-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off SU loss vs opp w/revenge. Both of these teams should be looking at major rehauls in the off season because they both have underperformed tremendously. ATL HC Dan Quinn may be out the door after coming in as a DEF guru and not getting ATL any better at DEF. There is some payback to be had by CAR for the shellacking they were victim to by ATL on their HOME field. Plus, this team has talent, they just have to step up. Ron Rivera says that he will coach again. He should NOT be on any one’s short list because of all the bad play calls or non-adjustments this guy has made. He should go back to being a coordinator and stay busy that way. Some GM will hire him and it will be another disaster in the making. Anyway, I like that CAR are getting points here and they should deliver for their new HC even if he just interim.
THE PICK: CAR+3 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (10-2), (7-4-1) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-0-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-3), (8-3-1) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS BUFF+5 ½
LW, there was a possible pregame to the SuperBowl played in BALT. SF was @BALT and it was a seesaw battle with both teams being able to run the ball but BALT kicked a fg with :00 on the clock to win 20-17. BALT QB Lamar Jackson rushed for 101 yds & 1TD & threw for 105 yds & 1TD. He did not have an INT but, did have a fumble which resulted in a SF fg. SF QB Jimmy G did have a fumble which resulted in a BALT TD. I said in my analysis LW that turnovers would loom large and that SF would keep it close. That is why I liked SF+6. It was a hard fought game and it was snowing during the whole game. But BALT proved to be resilient and came out with the victory. LW on Thanksgiving, DAL needed a victory to bounceback but the only thing bouncing was BUFF. BUFF was dominant in DAL to a 26-15 win. DAL started the game 7-0 and stalled on their 2nd drive and it was all BUFF from there. BUFF scored 26 unanswered points to make the score BUFF 26-7 and DAL added a garbage time TD to make the final score 26-15. But it was a combination of BUFF OFF & DEF that controlled this game. BUFF DEF stopped the DAL RBs to 77yds and 0TDs. While BUFF as a team rushed for 124 yds & 1TD. Former DAL WR Cole Beasely had a nice homecoming with 6 catches for 110 yds & 1TD. BUFF DEF forced DAL QB Dak Prescott into 1lost fumble & 1INT in which BUFF turned into a TD and unfortunately a missed fg. This week BUFF has their hands full. BALT #1 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF & #25 PASS OFF vs BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. BALT’s OFF strength is their run game headed by QB Lamar Jackson but BUFF can’t just focus on that because Jackson has thrown 25tds with only 5 INTS. BUFF QB Josh Allen has progressed in his development as an NFL QB. He has 16TDS & 8 INTS as opposed to 10 TDS & 12 INTS in eleven games in 2018. L7 BALT vs BUFF, BALT 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS but, HOME 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS. BALT 12-11-1 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 33-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 28-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 4-11 ATS vs opp off SUATS wins incl 2-0 ATS in 2019. BALT 2-8 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 13-15 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. BUFF 29-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 24-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 20-13-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs non-div since 2003. BUFF 3-11 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. This string of games for BUFF is a big test to see what this team is made of. They faced DAL, now BALT, then @PITT, @NE then vs NYJ. Even NYJ could be tough because NYJ have nothing to play for and BUFF may be playing for position. BALT’s schedule is a little lighter but they need to keep winning. After BUFF, they play on TNF vs NYJ, @CLEVE & PITT. BALT will come at BUFF with everything they have and BUFF will need to take it on. BUFF hasn’t played that many tough opponents because DAL is a paper tiger. This is their 2nd real test after NE and that rematch is coming up. I like BALT here to win by a TD unless they get sloppy. Lay the points here as BUFF will stay close early but then BALT will pull away in the 2nd half.
THE PICK: BALT-5 ½ 5 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (1-11), (6-6) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (5-7), (4-7-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS CINNCY+8
LW, CINNCY @HOME took it t the clueless NYJ 22-6. CINNCY QB Andy Dalton played well in this game even though the running game for CINNCY was non-existent. CINNCY didn’t turn the ball over but it was also the incompetence of the NYJ that helped CINNCY & CINNCY HC Zac Taylor get their 1st win. The CINNCY DEF showed u sacking NYJ QB Sam Darnold 4x and keeping the run game for NYJ at 62 yds & 0TDs. Good news for CINNCY, WR John Ross has been activated and should be a go for this matchup vs CLEVE. He hasn’t played since wk 4 with a collarbone injury. This season has been a complete mess for CINNCY and at this point they should evaluate if there are any good parts to this team to keep for next season. LW, CLEVE lost @PITT. I saw that coming because that was payback for their earlier contest @CLEVE when CLEVE dominated 21-7. That was the game with the extra curricular activities as well. CLEVE QB baker Mayfield never seemed to get on track going 18-32 196 yds, 1TD, 1INT & 1lost fumble. His fumble did lead to a fg by PITT which extended PITT’s lead to 20-10 and changed the strategy for CLEVE in this game going forward. CLEVE couldn’t get back and lost 20-13. These two teams have not met yet in 2019 but CLEVE is trying to get some respectability and CINNCY is just trying to keep some jobs. L12 CINNCY@CLEVE, CINNCY 7-5 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. L24 CINNCY vs CLEVE, DOG 13-9-2 ATS. L15 CINNCY vs CLEVE, CINNCY 8-5-2 ATS. L11 CINNCY vs CLEVE , CINNCY 8-2-1 ATS. CINNCY 25-29-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 23-24-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 41-34-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 7-0-1 ATS as a DOG off SU win 14>pts. CLEVE 15-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEVE 12-20-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEVE 6-11-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEVE 1-6-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEVE 6-0-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEVE 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off div gm vs opp off SU win. CLEVE 1-11 ATS in gms 13-16 vs <.500 div opp. CLEVE 1-10 ATS L11 off SU DIV loss. CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is in over his head and some of his play calling during this season has been suspect. Whether he or not he is the HC in 2020 it will certainly be evaluated as he made mistakes in crucial spots. This will be a hard fought game between two divisional rivals and it may go down to the wire. If CINNCY can find a way to put pressure on Mayfield and get him running to his left, Mayfield will make mistakes. I like CINNCY keeping it close here as they know Mayfield’s tendencies and they have nothing to lose. Take the points here as CLEVE wins by about five points but not more than a TD. I would be very surprised if there was a blowout by either team. Look for CINNCY to get their running game going as CLEVE is susceptible to the run. CLEVE #26 RUSH DEF. Look for Mixon & Bernard to get busy in this one so that Dalton doesn’t have to do it alone.
THE PICK: CINNCY+8 5 STARS
Washington Redskins (3-9), (5-7) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ GB Packers (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS WASH+13 ½
LW, GB @NYG took care of business in the snow and beat NYG 31-13. GB QB Aaron Rodgers looked flawless as I knew he would and would bounceback after taking it on the chin the week before @SF. NYG DEF was non-existent and Rodgers took full advantage. He had 4TDS & 0INTS. The GB DEF stopped NYG QB Daniel Jones cold with 3INTS & only 1TD allowed. LW, WASH ran all over CAR. Those of you that read my analysis LW will know that I said WASH should run all over CAR because they had the #27 RUSH DEF and couldn’t stop anyone. Well, they couldn’t and WASH rushed for 248 yds and 3TDS. I guess WASH read my analysis. I loved WASH in that game & WASH QB Dwayne Haskins didn’t turn the ball over and WASH won BIG. After CAR took a 14-0 lead early in the 1st qtr, it was all WASH from there for a 29-21 win. L6 GB vs WASH, WASH 3-3 SU & 3-2-1 ATS. WASH 2-10 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RG’s. WASH 4-10 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. WASH 35-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 36-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 7-7-1 ATS L15 in 1st of BB HG’s. GB 36-23-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 56-31-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 6-2-1 AT L9 as a HOME FAV vs NFC EAST. GB 12-0 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off SU AWAY win vs opp off SU win. WASH needs to do the same thing vs GB that they did vs CAR. GB is #25 RUSH DEF and has not stopped anyone on the ground. WASH has the personnel to do it and eat up a lot of clock in the process. WASH RBs Adrian Peterson & Derrius Guise are a great 1-2 punch and should wear the GB DEF out. GB DEF started out well in 2019 but has regressed tremendously as the season progressed. This spread is just too big to ignore and WASH has nothing to lose. GB is now leading the NFC NORTH but may not take WASH seriously. Rodgers will look to pick the WASH secondary apart like he did NYG. WASH secondary is better but not by much. However, I like the spread here. GB will win this game but not cover the spread. Take the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+13 ½ 5 STARS
Detroit Lions (3-8-1), (4-8) ATS, (1-4-1) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (8-4), (6-6) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (3-2) ATS DET+13
LW on Thanksgiving, DET with a 3rd string QB, David Blough made it interesting @HOME vs HI. CHI needed a late 4th qtr drive to win the game and Blough played as though he was not a rookie and it wasn’t his 1st ever NFL start. LW on MNF, MINN was leading @SEA, 17-10 but then the roof caved in & MINN never recovered. A couple of turnovers and the MINN DEF let up a little and before you know it, MINN was playing catchup to no avail. MINN eventually lost 37-30. But this game had SEA leading 34-17 and it didn’t look pretty for MINN. This is a game that certainly would have been a statement for MINN. SEA is a very good team and beating them would have put them in an almost tie with GB in the NFC NORTH. I say almost tie because right now GB has the tie breaker. MINN QB Kirk Cousins is playing much better but the DEF for MINN has to step up. MINN #6 TOT OFF vs DET #29 TOT DEF. MINN RB Dalvin Cook should run wild over this team after having an off game vs SEA. These two teams played @DET in wk 7 with MINN winning 42-30. But, that game was played with DET having Stafford as the QB. L12 MINN(H) vs DET, MINN 8-4 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. L17 MINN vs DET, DOG 7-9-1 ATS. L21 MINN vs DET, MINN 13-7-1 ATS. L25 MINN vs DET, HOME 10-13-2 ATS. MINN 32-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 24-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 28-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. DET 39-38 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 30-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 27-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 2-7 ATS after Thurs. DET 2-10 ATS L12 after DIV HOME gm. This is a must win game for MINN. After having dug themselves a huge hole on MNF @SEA which they eventually lost, MINN needs to get back on the horse and take command of the game in front of them. This is one of them. Lay the points here as MINN will not only cover this game but should blow DET out. MINN should score early and often. Final score, MINN 35-10.
THE PICK: MINN-13 5 STARS
SF 49ers (10-2), (7-5) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NO Saints (10-2), (8-4) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS SF+2 ½
LW, a possible SuerBowl preview game was played @BALT. SF was @BALT and SF was +6. I liked SF in this game because they had a legitimate chance at giving BALT a loss but, if SF did lose it would not be by much. It was a seesaw game back and forth but one thing is noticeable, both teams gave up a lot of yardage on the ground. SF rushed for 174 yds and 1TD, while BALT rushed for 178 yards and 1TD. It was snowing so the passing game for both was limited. BALT won the game with a fg with :00 on the clock with the final score, BALT 20-17. LW, on TNF NO was up comfortably @ATL 26-9 in the 4th qtr when NO HC Sean Payton’s 2nd head made an appearance. What I mean is that his play calling became suspect, again and he almost blew the game. ATL’s season has been over for some time but they have nothing to lose. So after ATL scored a garbage time td they tried an onside kick. They succeeded but were off-sides. They did it again and recovered, kicked a fg and then kicked another onside kick and recovered that too. You would think that NO HC Sean Payton would have made some adjustments after the first onside kick. But, did he? No. Had ATL had some better plays in their last series of plays at the end of the game, they might have pulled out the tie and went to OT. In OT, you never know what happens. But NO & HC Sean Payton got lucky in the end and walked away with the win. I liked them in this game laying 6 ½ on the road because it was payback for the game a few weeks ago when a different ATL team went to NO and dominated NO in their home building. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF. NO #3 RUSH DEF. Both teams are good on DEF and this game should not be a blowout by either team. L9 SF vs NO, SF 2-7 SU but 4-4-1 ATS, incl SF 3-2-1 ATS @NO. L6 SF vs NO (incl playoffs), SF 4-1-1 ATS. SF 8-11 ATS L19 in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 24-41 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 25-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 7-13-2 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 3-6 ATS L9 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 1-6 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. NO 6-6-1 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. NO 25-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 31-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 35-30-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 7-7 ATS L14 vs NFC WEST. NO 11-1 ATS vs .666> conf opp. NO 2-12 ATS in gms 13-16 when .500> off a div gm vs .500>opp. NO 4-0 ATS L4 before MNF. So SF is on a bounceback and this game could decide going forward who the #1 seed in the NFC will be. SF bounced back nicely after their first loss but that was against ARZ who are terrible. NO bounced back after their 1st loss @LAR with a nice win @SEA with QB Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, 33-27. That game was over early because SEA was playing catchup when the score was 27-7 in the 3rd qtr. Then after NO’s 2nd loss, they played @TB where NO dominated. This will be a tight game and I don’t see SF losing two in a row. If they do lose it will be a by a missed extra point that happens when they least expect it. Both of these teams are playing extremely well and this is another good test for Jimmy G. It should be a good game but I like SF with the points here. Also, turnovers will weigh heavily in this game and may change the momentum.
THE PICK: SF+2 ½ 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (3-9), (6-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NY Jets (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS MIA+5 ½
LW, MIA was trailing in the 3rd qtr @HOME to PHILLY 28-14. PHILLY felt that they had played enough and MIA won the game 37-31 with a trick play that will certainly go down in football lore. Hint, it ended in a td. Anyway, PHILLY was a big FAV and turned out to be a big dud. MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing with a fervor of never giving up in a game because he is comfortable playing for a team that is not going to the playoffs, he is comfortable playing spoiler. LW, NYJ lost to another previously winless team, CINNCY, 22-6. NYJ were flat and they abandoned the run game early to try to go toe to toe with CINNCY but, to no avail. CINNCY looked like world beaters against this sorry team and NYJ couldn’t even score a td vs a #32 TOT DEF team, pathetic. Did anyone really think that HC Adam Gase was going to do a good job here with NYJ? His big claim to fame is that he was the OC in DEN with Peyton Manning as QB. I could have been the OC with DEN & Peyton in his 13th season. LOL Anyway, there is a lot of pressure for NYJ to win this game and win big. There is no pressure on MIA & Fitzpatrick. L12 MIA @NYJ, MIA 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L20 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 13-7 ATS. L25 MIA vs NYJ, DOG 16-8-1 ATS. MIA 12-2 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. MIA 23-40 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 21-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 27-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 2-6 ATS L8 after scoring 35>pts. MIA 11-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG off SU win vs opp w/revenge. MIA 7-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts off SU win vs opp w/revenge. NYJ 20-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 27-26 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 23-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 5-9 ATS L14 off SU FAV loss. NYJ 9-2 ATS L11 vs div opp off SU DOG win. NYJ 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off AWAY gm vs opp off SU win. NYJ 1-9 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV vs <.500 div opp. These two teams met in wk 9 in MIA with MIA completely embarrassing NYJ and beating them 26-18. This game will be close with no one blowing out anyone but MIA will cover this game because Gase doesn’t know what he is doing. NYJ may be thinking about the beat down they will be getting @BALT on TNF and may not be concentrating on this game. You would think that NYJ would take some revenge here for that loss they suffered @MIA which was an embarrassment but, GASE is used to such things because he is an embarrassment. It’s one thing to have an ego when you are a winner but, Gase has an attitude and an ego and he’s a loser. Sorry, just telling it like it is. Anyway, I like MIA with the points because with Fitzpatrick & HC Gase, you never know.
THE PICK: MIA+5 ½ 5 STARS
Indianapolis Colts (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ TB Bucs (5-7), (5-7) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (0-5) ATS INDY+3
LW, INDY took it on the chin @HOME vs TENN. I liked TENN big in that game because I felt TENN was just the better team and right now TENN QB Tannehill is playing well. Tannehill did play better than Brissett and INDY had no answer for TENN RB Derrick Henry who rushed for 149 yds and 1TD on 26 carries. Plus, it didn’t hurt that TENN blocked a fg that was returned for a TD. That was a game changer. Also, when does K Adam Vinatieri miss 3fgs in a climate controlled environment? He is definitely having a bad season and should retire after this season. Final score, TENN 31-17. LW, TB took it to the JAGS from the get go. JAGS QB Nick Foles was benched & Gardner Minshew came in but it was too little, too late. By the time Minshew was inserted for JAGS, it was TB 25-0. TB QB Jameis Winston didn’t have any INTS but did have a lost fumble. It did lead to a JAGS fg but the score was 25-3 & JAGS were way out of it. INDY has a lot of guys out, WR TY Hilton, RB Marlon Mack, TE Eric Ebron, etc. Plus, WR Paris Campbell is questionable with his fractured hand. L3 TB vs INDY, INDY 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. INDY 6-7-2 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. INDY 33-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 32-27 ATS as a DOGin DEC. INDY 1-4 ATS before MNF. INDY 21-7 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD SU loss vs .500>opp. INDY 11-2 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. TB 32-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 22-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 12-26-2 ATS L30 as a HOME FAV. TB 7-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU FAV loss. TB 3-6 ATS L7 off DD SU win. TB 0-6 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 4-0 ATS L4 as a non-conf FAV >2pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. INDY has to take this game seriously and look to bounceback or their season is over. TB #2 RUSH DEF so INDY will have to look to get their passing game going. LW, TB kept JAGS RB Leonard Fournette to 38yds. It also didn’t help that JAGS had to abandon the run because they were so far down in the game. The combination of INDY coming off a big loss @HOME & TB coming off a blowout win has INDY at an advantage because they are still battling for a possible playoff spot and are in a big bounceback situation for this game. Plus, INDY QB Jacoby Brissett had a bad game vs TENN and would like to improve upon that game with a nice win here. Even though INDY has a lot of injured guys, they seem to play a competitive game. For INDY, the DEF must put pressure on Winston. When pressure is put on him, he makes mistakes. Let him sit in the pocket and he will pick you apart. INDY DE Justin Houston is due for a big game. Vinatieri needs to make his kicks, period. This game could go either way because of turnovers but, take the points and INDY should win outright.
THE PICK: INDY+3 3 STARS
Denver Broncos (4-8), (7-5) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (8-4), (6-6) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS DEN+9 ½
LW, on SNF, HOU @HOME took it to NE 28-22. The game wasn’t even as close as the score suggests because HOU built a 28-9 lead and NE played catchup. Yes, HOU played a good game in defeating NE but NE was out of sync on OFF that helped lead HOU to a confident win. We’ll see how they play this week. LW, DEN QB Drew Lock had his debut game and took it to LAC for a sweep of the series in 2019. For a rookie, Lock played smarter and wiser than his counterpart in the game, Philip Rivers and even ran 3x for 15 yards when needed. His 1INT didn’t lead to any LAC points but this game went back and forth and instead of safely going into OT, he threw a pass that was called for pass interference against LAC and set up the winning fg with :00 on the clock and a DEN win 23-20. Maybe DEN president, John Elway has finally found his QB. L7 HOU vs DEN, DEN 4-3 SUATS. DEN 12-6 ATS L18 in 1t of BB RG’s. DEN 18-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 29-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 13-3 ATS L16 off SU DOG win. DEN 3-6 ATS after LAC. DEN 2-6 ATS as a non div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. DEN 7-0 ATS off SU DIV DOG win. DEN 0-8 ATS of SUATS DIV HOME win. HOU 22-14 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 12-15 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 4-11-1 ATS L16 before TENN. HOU 11-9 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 7-4 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off SU win vs AFC opp. HOU 4-9-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. Just when you think HOU is on a roll, they lose. DEN #16 RUSH OFF vs HOU #19 RUSH DEF. For DEN to be in this game, they must rush the ball successfully so that Lock doesn’t feel that he has to win this game by himself. DEN RBs Phillip Lindsay & Royce Freeman can get a 1-2 punch going so that the HOU DEF is susceptible to the pass. LW, NE was able to run the ball successfully for 145 yds until they fell behind and had to pass more. HOU will certainly be looking for the pass and to attack a rookie QB but Lock seems to be poised and should keep this game close. If the DEN DEF does its job this game will not get out of hand and DEN could have a chance to win it outright. There will be a letdown for HOU because they just beat NE and may not take DEN too seriously. I like the points here and it should be closer than the spread suggests.
THE PICK: DEN+9 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 8th, 2019 4:00pm
LA Chargers (4-8), (3-9) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS JAGS+3
LW, JAGS were @HOME vs TB and things didn’t go as planned. I liked TB getting points and TB won 25-11. The score was 25-0 and JAGS couldn’t get anything going until late. JAGS QB Nick Foles was pulled from the game and benched and Gardner Minshew relieved him but, the damage was done and the hill was too steep. Minshew will be the QB going forward and I think he brings more excitement & enthusiasm to the JAGS then does Nick Foles. LW, LAC lost @DEN to a rookie QB that was playing his 1st ever NFL game, Drew Lock. Lock had confidence to lead this team a victory that almost no one saw coming. I thought LAC would deliver vs this QB but they decided to write it in. DEN played like gangbusters while LAC played busted. LAC DEF didn’t even sack Lock 1x. LAC played catchup the whole game only to lose in the final seconds. L9 LAC vs JAGS, LAC 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS. JAGS 10-10 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 5-13 ATS L18 in 2nd of BB HG’s. JAGS 29-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 30-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 0-6 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 2-9 ATS L11 vs AFC WEST. LAC 8-10-1 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 6-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. LAC 33-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 33-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC (Rivers) 26-7 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 2-6-1 ATS as a FAV 2>pts in 2nd of BB RG’s. LAC 5-3 ATS L8 after DEN. LAC LAC 11-1 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV vs <.500 opp off ATS loss. Both of these teams have been major disappointments this season and will be evaluated extensively in the off season. JAGS are two years removed from a hair of the SuperBowl and have regressed since then. LAC has an aging QB that is like a statue and may not give this team the best chance to win. Tyrod Taylor is waiting in the wings and has won at BUFF and may give this team more of a shot at winning. Philip Rivers is not signed past this season and it may be his last with LAC. LAC has lost three in a row and JAGS have lost four in a row. Even though Rivers has owned the JAGS, I like JAGS to win here. JAGS have to put some pressure on Rivers and he will fold like a house of cards. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette has to get going because he may be gone after the season. This game will not be pretty but, take the HOME TEAM & the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+3 3 STARS
Tennessee Titans (7-5), (7-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS OAK+2 ½
LW, TENN went to INDY & took it to them 31-17. INDY K Adam Vinatieri missed 3fgs. Throw in a blocked fg that was returned for a td and you have a barn stormer. TENN RB Derrick Henry ran wild for 149 yds & 1TD. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill had another solid outing going 17-22, 182 yds, 2TDs & 0INTS but did have a lost fumble. Could this mean the end for Marcus Mariota in TENN? Tannehill has certainly revived his career since he has started in TENN. LW, OAK was dominated on both sides of the ball @KC, 40-9. I only liked OAK+10 because they usually keep the game within striking distance with KC but they made mistake after mistake on easy plays vs KC. Some of the mistakes looked like they had never played football before. The OFF for OAK couldn’t do a thing and it was 31-0 after the 3rd qtr. The stats for OAK are totally misleading because they played catchup the whole game. Plus, I think KC took it easy on OAK because they could have scored 70 points on this bunch. Now they play a playoff bound team. L8 TENN vs OAK, OAK 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. TENN 4-9 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 6-8-1 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. TENN 3-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 24-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 7-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins(last vs DIV) vs non-div. TENN 4-19 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 2-17 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 1-16 ATS vs non-div opp off SU loss >10pts. OAK 15-20-1 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. OAK 6-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. OAK 26-37-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. OAK 28-52-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. OAK 5-11-2 ATS L18 after KC. OAK 8-3-1 ATS @HOME after SU loss >10pts. OAK 10-4-1 ATS off SU DIV loss. OAK 8-3 ATS vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. OAK 8-1 ATS L9 vs AFC SOUTH. Both of these teams still have something to play for but TENN is in a better position than OAK realistically for a playoff spot. TENN still has to play HOU 2x and is in control of their own destiny in the AFC SOUTH. OAK is not playing anyone after this game that they could change their playoff position by beating. OAK may be playing out the string but TENN has something to play for and is playing better football. Even though OAK is on a big bounceback, they don’t have the personnel to stop TENN’s machine. Lay the points here as TENN should win with room to spare.
THE PICK: TENN-2 ½ 5 STARS
KC Chiefs (8-4), (6-6) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NE Patriots (10-2), (7-5) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (3-2) ATS KC+3
LW, on SNF, NE couldn’t get their OFF in sync and they lost 28-22 @HOU. You could see the frustration on Brady’s face. He is playing with some receivers that haven’t been there before and they are not doing what they are supposed to do. It’s not about just catching the ball. With this loss, NE temporarily lost the #1 seed in the AFC. I say temporarily because going forward, anything could happen with BALT & NE. After giving up 4TDS to HOU, you know the NE DEF will clamp down this week. NE #2 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #5 RUSH DEF. LW, KC beat up OAK in KC 40-9. It was 21-0 at the half, so you could essentially turn your sets off then. Usually, OAK gives KC a fight but this time they laid down on both sides of the ball for KC and KC took full advantage of it. KC OFF had a field day and the KC DEF played well vs an inept OAK OFF. L7 KC vs NE, NE 4-3 SU but 2-4-1 ATS (not incl playoffs). NE 47-40 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 36-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 26-10-3 ATS L39 (H) vs non-div. NE 13-4-1 ATS L18 vs AFC WEST. NE 8-8-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 19-8-2 ATS L29 after an SU loss. NE 17-8-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .500>opp. KC 31-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 26-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. KC 3-11 ATS after OAK. KC 10-2 ATS w/revenge. KC 10-2 ATS AWAY w/revenge. KC 1-7 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. KC 6-1 AT L7 vs .700> opp. This is when you certainly do not want to face NE & Tom Brady. They are coming off a frustrating loss, are at home and are looking to bounce back. The reason why HC Bill Belichick is so good is that he will throw something at you that you haven’t seen in years and it will work to perfection that will throw the other team off. For KC they lost 2x vs NE in 2018. KC lost @NE during the regular season 43-40 & @KC in the AFC Championship game in OT, 37-31. There may be a little revenge on the minds of KC & HC Andy Reid but NE is looking to get back on track and are really not too concerned about what is on the minds of KC. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NE-3 5 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5), (6-5-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1), (8-4) ATS, (1-4-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS ARZ+2 ½
LW, PITT did what they needed to do which was get their revenge vs CLEVE. PITT QB Devlin Hodges had a decent day vs CLEVE DEF. The running game helped Hodges out a lot by rushing for 122 yds & 1TD which took a lot of pressure off of him so that he could find open receivers. CLEVE only sacked him 1x while the PITT DEF sacked CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield 5x, had 1INT & caused him lose a fumble as well. The PITT DEF also kept the CLEVE running game to 104 yds but nothing that was dangerous to PITT. It was a controlled game by PITT and they had CLEVE playing catchup in the 4th qtr. Final score was PITT 20-13. LW, ARZ @HOME was blown out by LAR 34-7. ARZ has lost five in a row. They have played SF tough but besides those two games (both losses), ARZ has been blown out 2x. ARZ QB Kyler Murray did not play well only completing 19 of 34 passes for 163 yards & 1INT which was a PICK6. He was also sacked 6x. The ARZ DEF was non-existent giving up 427 yards passing, 2TDS and only 1 sack of LAR QB Jared Goff. Also, LAR RBs rushed for 142 yds. LAR had a field day. L3 PITT vs ARZ, PITT 2-1 SUATS. PITT 14-21 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 27-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 46-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 6-16-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. ARZ 14-14-1 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 4-8-1 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. ARZ 38-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 44-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 11-4 ATS L15 as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 14-4 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 16-2 ATS L18 @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. PITT has found a way to compensate for the loss of RB James Connor with Benny Snell & Jaylen Samuels who have been working well as a 1-2 RB punch. ARZ #32 TOT DEF w/#32 PASS DEF & #24 RUSH DEF. These two RBs for PITT should run all day vs ARZ until they cannot run anymore. Hodges should pass the ball sparingly but as the run is established it will open up receivers for Hodges to hit. Usually after a blowout, teams play closer but PITT actually has something to play for and that is a possible wild-card spot. The PITT secondary is under regarded but there are some stars waiting to break out. Look for DB Minkah Fitzpatrick to have an INT in this game, he is due. ARZ has nothing to play for and their DEF is just awful. Lay the points here as PITT should win this game big unless they take ARZ for granted and start to get turnoveridous.
THE PICK: PITT-2 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 8th, 2019 8:20pm
Seattle Seahawks (10-2), (7-5) ATS, (6-0) AWAY, (6-0) ATS @ LA Rams (7-5), (7-4-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS LAR+1
LW, LAR destroyed ARZ in ARZ 34-7. I should have see that coming but I felt that ARZ would give them a fight on their HOME turf after battling SF 2x. LAR was coming off a whitewash by BALT 45-6 and needed to rebound. LAR rebounded big time and there was no doubt in this game. But, LAR have been hot & cold and when you expected them to win this season, they haven’t. LAR QB Jared Goff has looked predictable and average at times when guys around him have been flat. LW, on MNF, SEA took it too MINN. MINN was up 17-10 @SEA & then SEA took over. MINN turned the ball over a couple of times which didn’t help their cause and SEA was up 34-17. MINN tried in vain to comeback but, came up short 37-30. These two teams met in wk 5 on TNF in SEA with SEA winning the game 30-29. LAR K Greg Zeurlein missed a last second fg that would have given LAR the outright win. The spread was LAR+1 ½ and I liked LAR in this one and they should have won outright. LAR may looking at some payback here but they have only themselves to blame. LAR has lost some games that they should have won and the OFF looked stifled. Two games that LAR should have won were vs TB & @PITT. Had LAR won both of those games, this game would mean more to LAR then just a divisional rivalry game. L12 SEA @LAR, SEA 6-6 SUATS. L21 SEA vs LAR, HOME 13-8 ATS. SEA 7-4-2 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. SEA 34-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 33-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 34-23 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 13-17-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC WEST. SEA 8-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SEA 6-5 ATS AWAY on SNF. LAR 21-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 22-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 24-35 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 2-6 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAR 1-8 ATS w/revenge off DIV ROAD gm. LAR 1-9 ATS @HOME w/revenge off DIV ROAD gm. LAR 2-9 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME vs div opp off SU win. SEA needs to keep winning to keep in step with SF who are tied with them for the lead in the NFC WEST. The winner gets either a #1 or #2 seed, the loser gets a #5 seed and has to go on the road wild card weekend. For LAR it is just playing good enough to stay respectable in 2019 because they are not making the playoffs. SEA QB Russell Wilson certainly knows the LAR DEF and should come out strongly knowing what the DEF is vulnerable to. He also takes what the DEF gives him and exploits it. It should be a good game but SEA will come out the winner in a hard fought game.
THE PICK: SEA-1 3 STARS
Monday December 9th, 2019 8:15pm
NY Giants (2-10), (4-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-7), (4-8) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS NYG+9 ½
LW, I knew that NYG would get blasted @HOME by a GB team that was blasted the week before by SF. It’s all in the psychology and the bounceback of the good teams. That was my pick of the week and NYG delivered @HOME, losing 31-13 to GB. But, NYG QB Daniel Jones has a high ankle sprain and right now, Eli Manning is the presumed starter for NYG. You think he is not salivating for this game? Play spoiler and take out a rival’s chances of getting to the playoffs. LW, PHILLY is like their own worst enemy. PHILLY was leading 28-14 @MIA in the 3rd qtr when they felt that they played enough. Guess what, PHILLY lost 37-31. PHILLY was also the victim of a very successful trick play that resulted in a td for MIA and will go down in football history as being one of the wildest in NFL history. If you haven’t seen it, I suggest you look it up. Anyway, PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is not looking like a long term solution for this club. Yes, they have had some injuries this season but guys are not stepping up. PHILLY CB Jalen Mills was torched by MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick LW like a clueless rookie. The secondary for PHILLY has been suspect even in their championship run. The front seven were so good at putting pressure on the opposing QBs that they didn’t notice that the secondary was vulnerable. L12 NYG@PHILLY, NYG 4-8 SU but 6-5-1 ATS. L24 NYG vs PHILLY, ROAD 14-9-1 ATS. L24 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 15-8-1 ATS. NYG 41-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 34-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 30-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 16-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 10-5 ATS as a DIV DOG 4>pts. NYG 2-6 ATS as a DOG on MNF. NYG 11-2 ATS as a RD >5pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 10-16 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. PHILLY 32-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 35-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 34-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 5-1 ATS on MNF vs opp off DD SU loss. PHILLY 1-8 ATS in 1st of BB DIV gms. PHILLY 17-6 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. Do you think Eli is looking forward to this game? PHILLY is on a three game losing streak and needs a win like no one’s business but NYG HC Pat Shurmur has been a big disappointment in NY(no surprise) and he needs a win like no one’s business too because he is on a very hot seat as well. I think that PHILLY wins here but not by much as NYG put up a good fight and loses at the end. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYG+9 ½ 5 STARS