2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 15
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 12th, 2019 8:20pm
NY Jets (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (11-2), (8-4-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS NYJ+14 ½
LW, NYJ @HOME barely got by MIA 22-21. It took a controversial Pass-Interference call overturned by replay officials to prolong the NYJ drive that set up a game winning fg at the end. I liked MIA+5 ½ for the game because MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing like these are the last games of his career and he is playing all out. MIA has nothing to lose and everything to gain. NYJ have a ton of guys injured and RB Le’Veon Bell did not play vs MIA but will be available for the game vs BALT. RB Bilal Powell who played well vs MIA is questionable vs BALT after sustaining an ankle injury and an illness. NYJ gave up 122 yards rushing to MIA mostly by Fitzpatrick who had 65 yards rushing on seven carries. Yes, NYJ made stops and kept MIA from getting in the endzone but, it’s MIA and they have a bunch of nobodies on OFF. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs NYJ # 2 RUSH DEF. LW, BALT beat BUFF @BUFF 24-17. I liked BALT laying the points but I also liked BALT to win because BUFF hasn’t beaten anyone over .500. It was a seesaw game and BALT was leading only 10-6 at halftime but pulled away 24-9 in the 4th qtr. BUFF tried to comeback but scored 1td with a 2pt conversion to make the final score 24-17. BALT managed to rush the ball for 118 yds & BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw for 3TDS, & 1INT. Also, the BALT DEF sacked BUFF QB Josh Allen 6x. That is not an easy feat considering he is very elusive and had only been sacked 27x in the first 12 games. The thing about BALT is that they don’t get frustrated. If something is not working, they try something else. A lot of people were skeptical of BAL T getting rid of QB Joe Flacco so early and calling this Lamar Jackson’s team. So far, BALT has made the right choice with Jackson as their QB. L7 BALT vs NYJ, BALT 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. BALT 36-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 34-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 5-2 ATS as a FAV on TNF. BALT 1-11 ATS as a HOME FAV >10pts vs .400<opp. BALT 6-20-1 ATS L27 @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 7-0 ATS L7 before CLEVE. NYJ 35-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 40-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 5-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYJ 5-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. NYJ 9-1 ATS L10 off SU win but ATS loss. NYJ 9-1 ATS AWAY off SU win but ATS loss. NYJ 2-8 ATS L10 off SU DIV win. This is the last TNF game of the 2019 season but it reminds me of the game earlier in the season when the NYG were @NE on TNF. That game looked close in the 1st half but NE pulled away in the 2nd half to win 35-14. The spread in that game was NE-16 ½. NE pulled out all the stops in the 2nd half and NYG were dumbfounded. I think that history repeats itself here and BALT has a field day vs NYJ. Yes, I know, that everyone is jumping on the bandwagon for BALT but in two PRIMETIME games in 2019, BALT beat NE 37-20 & LAR 45-6. Those teams are better than NYJ by far & NYJ HC Adam Gase is probably already panicking about the BALT DEF. Lay the points here as BALT shows everyone that the BALT express keeps rolling along.
THE PICK: BALT-14 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 15th, 2019 1:00pm
NE Patriots (10-3), (7-6) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-12), (6-6-1) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-4) ATS CINNCY+9 ½
LW, say what you want but the officials gave the NE/KC game to KC. KC was in prevent mode as HC Andy Reid always does when he protects a lead and NE came storming back. But KC had help from the officials who made bad calls and changed the makeup and ultimately the outcome of the game. If you don’t know check the videos. NE has lost to three teams that are playoff bound but, so what. Everyone thought NE was out of it in 2018 and what did they do? Just win the SuperBowl, again. You can’t win every game and when you lose you go back and try to improve what you did wrong. Come playoff time, NE will not make the same mistakes that they made during the season. LW, CINNCY lost @CLEVE, 27-19. I liked CINNCY+8 as my PICK of the week and it ended up being a PUSH. But I liked CINNCY to keep it close. They had a backdoor PUSH as they kicked a fg with :12 left. Considering that CLEVE didn’t really impress anyone either in this game, you could consider it a win for CINNCY. CINNCY plays tough even if they lose. In their last four games CINNCY is 3-0-1 ATS. There are guys fighting for jobs and not everyone on this team is terrible. The O-LINE certainly needs to do a better job because RBs Joe Mixon & Giovani Bernard could give teams trouble if they had an O-LINE that was better at opening up running routes. L7 NE vs CINNCY, NE 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. NE 32-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 47-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 11-11-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 18-12 ATS as a RF after an SU loss. NE 20-9-2 ATS L31 after an SU loss. NE 17-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .500>opp. CINNCY 9-7 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 44-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 41-34-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 16-14-1 ATS after an SU loss & paying @HOME. CINNCY 14-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY CINNCY 1-11 ATS vs >600 opp. CINNCY 3-5 ATS after CLEV. CINNCY 6-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs opp off SU loss. If NE cannot beat CINNCY by ten or more points they should disband now and Brady should retire. This is a bounceback game for NE as they have uncharasterically lost two straight. The last time NE was in this scenario and it was on to CINNCY, NE destroyed CINNCY 43-17. I see another game like this in the making. Lay the points here as NE is just going through their OFF scheme and getting ready for the playoffs. Brady will look fine in this game as he will pick apart the CINNCY #31 TOT DEF w/#19 PASS DEF w/#32 RUSH DEF. Yes there are kinks in the armor but that is when Brady & CO hunker down and get back to business. Let all the critics have their moment but, this is a game that will be won big by NE. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NE-9 ½ 5 STARS
TB Bucs (6-7), (5-7-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-9-1), (4-8-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS DET+3 ½
LW, TB @HOME spotted INDY a 35-21 lead in the 3rd qtr. Then the DEF for TB stepped up and the OFF for TB moved forward and TB ended up winning the game 38-35. TB Jameis Winston threw 3INTS, one for a PICK6, one resulted in a td and one resulted in a missed fg. There was also a TB fumble that resulted in a fg for INDY. Take away the four turnovers for TB and TB controls the game and the score from the get go. Even with all the gifts from TB, INDY still couldn’t win the game. But it was major comeback from TB that was needed for the win. TB QB Jameis Winston leads the league with 23 INTS. WR Mike Evans injured his hamstring and is out for the remainder of the season. Fortunately, TB is playing DET. LW at MINN, MINN was not taking it to DET like they should of. DET was a BIG DOG @+13 and the final score was MINN 20-7. HC Matt Patricia is in jeopardy of losing his job. The team can’t seem to get out of their own way. The DEF for DET has been atrocious and they can’t stop anyone. DET #29 TOT DEF w/#30 PASS DEF & #23 RUSH DEF. They are much worse than in 2018. It doesn’t help that QB Matt Stafford is out & a 3rd stringer is in there with David Blough but, there are other teams that are missing their QBs. Plus, to add insult to injury, DET just added WR Marvin Jones to IR, so that’s one less receiver the TB DEF has to worry about. There has been absolutely no running game for DET to rely on as RB Kerryon Johnson injured his knee early in the season and no on has really stepped up in his place. L8 DET vs TB, DET 5-3 SU & 5-2 ATS 1NL. TB 2-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV. TB 23-36-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 22-37-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 20-17-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. DET 9-16-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. DET 28-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 39-38-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 16-22-1 ATS L39 (H) vs non-div. Usually Winston has a better game after he has a game with multiple INTS, usually. The run game for TB has to take over because when Winston throws more than 35 passes, TB usually loses. TB #1 RUSH DEF. So it will be all on the shoulders of Blough to get it done and TB will be waiting. The only way TB loses this game is if they beat themselves. DET is terrible and has lost six games in a row. TB has a shot to end up with a winning record after it looked like they were destined for a losing season. After this week, TB has their last two games @HOME vs HOU & ATL. They are tough ones but, this week should be a little easier. Lay the points here as TB should roll.
THE PICK: TB-3 ½ 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (7-6), (5-8) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ GB Packers (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (4-3) ATS CHI+4 ½
LW, on TNF, CHI @HOME took care of DAL. The final score may have been CHI 31-24 but the game wasn’t that close. The score was CHI 24-7 in the 3rd qtr and DAL was playing catchup the rest of the way. On top of the fact that CHI was able to rush for 151 yds vs a DAL DEF that was supposed to be good vs the run. CHI RBs David Montgomery & Tarik Cohen need to be fully entrenched in this game to take the pressure off of QB Mitch Trubisky. We all know how inconsistent he is and how nervous he gets. Yes, he did have 3TDS vs DAL but look at the passes. 5yd pass, 8 yd pass & a 14yd pass. Not exactly barnburners. CHI DEF must step up here and make some plays. Hello LB Khalil Mack, do you hear me? CHI has to stop GB from establishing the run or otherwise Rodgers will pick them apart. Also, CHI has to play that shutdown DEF that they played so well in 2018. LW, GB barely beat WASH 20-15. I liked WASH+13 ½ because I knew that WASH could run all day on the GB DEF. GB is terrible against the run and any team with a decent run game would keep it close with them. GB started out the year with a good DEF but has faded back. GB #25 RUSH DEF. Take note CHI. These two teams met in wk 1 with the game being a low scoring game and GB winning 10-3. There is some revenge on the minds of CHI but in the past Rodgers has owned CHI. L17 GB vs CHI, GB 12-5 ATS, ouch! L12 GB(H) vs CHI, GB 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS. L18 GB vs CHI, ROAD 11-7 ATS. CHI 19-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 26-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 27-31 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 6-3 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. CHI 6-7 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. CHI 3-6 ATS after TNF. GB 9-4-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. GB 36-24-1 @HOME in DEC. GB 32-28 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 56-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 10-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. CHI must put pressure on Rodgers, no doubt about it. CHI needs to look at how WASH kept GB close. This game is winnable for CHI but, they must not commit costly turnovers. They also must create some turnovers and some scoring opportunities. I like GB to win this game but not cover like I said LW vs WASH. The run DEF for GB is terrible and CHI should run all day vs GB like WASH did. I like CHI and the points because they will keep it close and GB will win by a fg at the end off the Rodger’s magic to bring the team back to kick the winning fg. Close game for sure.
THE PICK: CHI+4 ½ 5 STARS
Houston Texans (8-5), (6-7) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (8-5), (8-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS HOU+3
LW, HOU was blasted @HOME by DEN, 38-24. HOU was a BIG FAV @-9 ½ . I liked DEN with the points because I thought it would be a close game with HOU having a little bit of a letdown after just beating NE. I was right because HOU HC Bill O’Brien is not accustomed to winning and does not know how to keep it going. HOU was completely outplayed by DEN and it was 31-3 DEN at the half. HOU tried in vain to play catchup in the 2nd half after DEN extended the lead to 38-3 and it was time to bring in the subs. You don’t want HOU QB Deshaun Watson hurt on some stupid play when the game is completely out of reach. LW, TENN took it OAK @OAK, 42-21. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill is a having a rebirth in TENN after being traded there from MIA in the off-season. He did however start the game with an INT that turned into an OAK TD. This game was 21-21 at half but TENN dominated in the 2nd half and scored 3TDS while OAK scored 0points. TENN RB Derrick Henry had another solid day with 18 carries for 103 yds & 2TDS. Both teams rely on a good rushing game. HOU #7 RUSH OFF & TENN #8 RUSH OFF. Neither one of these teams are great vs PASS. TENN #25 PASS DEF & HOU #27 PASS DEF. It will be a battle. L12 TENN(H) vs HOU, TENN 7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS. L18 HOU vs TENN, HOU 13-5 ATS. HOU 9-4-2 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. HOU 16-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 24-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 17-19 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 8-4 ATS L12 after allowing 35>pts. TENN 3-10 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. TENN 35-33 ATS @Home in DEC. TENN 31-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 28-30 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 5-19 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 3-17 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 4-13 ATS L17 after scoring 35>pts. TENN 1-10 ATS in gms 13-16 off BB SU wins vs opp off non-div gm. The key for HOU is to stop TENN RB Derrick Henry form getting credible yardage. HOU needs to get their run game going with RBs Carlos Hyde & Duke Johnson. This game will be a battle as they play 2x in the last three games. It will certainly decide who goes to the playoffs and who stays home. I like HOU here in a bounceback because TENN may be a little soft after a big blowout win and HOU knows that their backs are against the wall. This game could go down to the wire and may be closer than the spread. It also could be a shootout due to the weak PASS DEFs. Turnovers will loom very large in this game. Take HOU and the points here.
THE PICK: HOU+3 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (5-8), (8-5) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ KC Chiefs (9-4), (7-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS DEN+10
LW, DEN surprised HOU big time in HOU. A lot of people didn’t see it coming but, I did. DEN QB Drew Lock had another nice game with a balanced attack and totally surprised HOU. This game was 21-0, 31-3 at the half and then 38-3 in the 3rd qtr & you could turn your sets off there. HOU tried playing catchup but to no avail, not even close. HOU is really not that good and probably will be 1 & done again in the playoffs. After DEN & Drew Lock surprised LAC the week before, I liked them as the BIG DOG @HOU. Lock has enthusiasm and is not afraid to take on the challenge. The DEF for DEN is also playing better because they are spending less time on the field. They also intercepted HOU QB Deshaun Watson 2x and had a fumble recovery for a td, so that help DEN tremendously. LW, KC was the benefactor of some bad calls all around that went against NE. KC had a nice lead and as usual Andy Reid played conservatively and let NE back into it. The refs gave KC a helping hand and KC came away with victory 23-16. KC didn’t surprise anyone and NE will be waiting in the playoffs. KC Pat Mahomes hurt his throwing hand but he will not miss this game and should be fine. The KC secondary is penetrable because the way they beat NE was getting away with obvious PASS- Interference that was not called. The running game for KC was not effective and Mahomes needed to pass 40x. NE DB J.C. Jackson was picked on but eventually extra help shut down the KC passing attack. L12 DEN @KC, DEN 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS. L22 DEN vs KC, ROAD 14-8 ATS. L25 DEN vs KC, DOG 16-9 ATS. DEN 10-8 ATS L18 in 2nd of BB RG’s. DEN 25-32 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 20-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 30-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 14-9 ATS L23 div RG’s. DEN 14-3 ATS L17 after an SU DOG win. DEN 2-5 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs conf opp. DEN 1-10 ATS in gms 13-16 as a DOG vs div opp off non-din gm. DEN 1-10 ATS in gms 13-16 off SU win vs div opp off SU win. DEN 6-0 ATS L6 off BB SUATS wins (last as a DOG). KC 34-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 36-20 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 36-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 3-10 ATS @HOME vs <.500 DIV opp. KC 7-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge off SUATS win. KC 3-13 ATS as a DIV HF vs <.500 opp. KC 8-0 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME vs div opp off DD ATS win. KC 1-5 ATS as a double digit FAV vs .400<opp. I like DEN here to keep it close and maybe even pull off the upset win. There will be a little letdown by KC after the big win @NE as there always is with HC Andy Reid. There is also some payback for the embarrassment that DEN suffered @HOME on TNF in wk 7. That game was a total domination game by KC after their DEF had been shredded the week before @HOME by HOU. KC may be taking DEN for granted and their DEF can be scored upon. DEN is playing for pride and 2020 but KC may be looking ahead to their game with CHI. I’m not convinced about KC and they can be beaten. Take the points here and don’t be surprised if DEN wins outright.
THE PICK: DEN+10 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (3-10), (7-6) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NY Giants (2-11), (5-8) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, I loved MIA+5 ½ @NYJ. NYJ are a mess and MIA plays hard with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. I said so in my analysis. They kicked 7fgs vs NYJ but came up short 22-21. The difference was that the replay officials got involved in a so-called pass-interference play at the end of the game which gave NYJ a 1st down. This was the game changing moment. Needless to say, NYJ were able to kick their own fg at the end of the game for the win. MIA played hard with a bunch of nobodies and almost came away with the victory. LW, on MNF NYG had a 17-3 lead @PHILLY at the half. With QB Eli Manning leading NYG, NYG looked great in the 1st half and it looked like they would bury PHILLY. Well, in the 2nd half, NYG did absolutely nothing and gave up 2TDS & 1missd fg to let PHILLY tie in regulation. Then in OT NYG never got the ball and PHILLY raced down the field for a td and the win 23-17. NYG 1-0 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. However, NYG had six possessions in the 2nd half and they were all 3 or 4 plays and out, that was it. This was totally terrible and didn’t give the DEF a chance to breathe. NYG HC Pat Shurmur & GM Dave Gettleman have got to go. NYG need to clean house in a big way because the DEF for NYG is atrocious. They can’t stop anyone. NYG #27 TOT DEF. NYG is on a nine game losing streak. Not that MIA is any better. MIA #30 TOT DEF. Who on the NYG DEF will stop MIA WR Devante Parker? L3 MIA vs NYG, NYG 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS. MIA 7-8 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. MIA 22-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 28-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 5-11 ATS off div ROAD gm. NYG 29-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYG 34-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 6-5-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 4-8 ATS L12 vs <.400opp. NYG 6-1 ATS L7 after PHILLY. Right now it has not been determined whether or not Daniel Jones or Eli Manning will start for NYG. It actually doesn’t matter because the rest of the team and the coaching staff are not on the same page. Plus, if it is Jones, he will be rusty and you can count on him for a couple of turnovers. MIA keeps pushing forward and because they play such a weak schedule they are competitive in almost every game even though they have a bunch of nobodies. Fitzpatrick & CO are not afraid or intimidated by anyone and the NYG certainly don’t scare anyone. Take MIA with the points here and don’t be surprised if MIA pulls the upset because the DEF for NYG is that bad.
THE PICK: MIA+3 ½ 3 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), (4-8) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Washington Redskins (3-10), (6-7) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-4) ATS WASH+4 ½
LW, on MNF, PHILLY did not impress anyone. So, @HOME they beat NYG and it took OT to do it. NYG were up 17-3 at halftime and all of a sudden couldn’t do anything right in the 2nd half and let PHILLY come back, tie the game and then march all the way down in OT and score a td, game over. But afterwards they are running around like they just won the SuperBowl. If PHILLY had been playing a better team, the game would have been over a long time ago with a defeat. PHILLY 0-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. I’m not impressed with PHILLY QB Carson Wentz. I don’t care that a lot of guys on OFF for PHILLY are injured, that’s part of the game. NE isn’t complaining. However, I do like PHILLY RB Boston Scott who is another Darren Sproles and can’t be stopped. He was unstoppable vs NYG and should be used more in the OFF. LW, WASH @GB played them closer than the spread suggested. WASH was getting 13 ½ and I liked them big @GB. I knew GB would win but not cover because GB is terrible vs the run and WASH had RBs Derrius Guice & Adrian Peterson who rushed for 118 yds combined vs GB. GB did enough to win but did not do enough to cover the big spread.
Unfortunately for WASH, Guice injured his knee and will not be available for this game vs PHILLY. However, WASH does have RB Wendell Smallwood who is formerly of PHILLY so he might be revved up for this game. L12 WASH(H) vs PHILLY, WASH 5-7 SUATS. L21 WASH vs PHILLY, FAV 11-10 ATS. L25 WASH vs PHILLY, ROAD 16-9 ATS. WASH 15-16 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. WASH 6-8 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH 37-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 23-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 26-34 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 14-7-1 ATS L22 before NYG. WASH 9-4 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. PHILLY 7-16 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 35-36 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 24-38 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 34-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. These two teams met in wk 1 @PHILLY but that was so long ago and both of these teams were vastly different then they are now. WASH would love nothing more than to be a spoiler and get a little bit of revenge against one of their own in the NFC EAST. I like WASH here because if WASH doesn’t bet themselves and play a stable game, they could actually beat PHILY and give a little payback for the loss from wk 1. Take WASH & the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+4 ½ 3 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (10-3), (7-6) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (5-8), (6-6-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS CAR+5 ½
LW, SEA @LAR on SNF was manhandled by LAR. It wasn’t pretty from the get go and SEA couldn’t get their OFF going. The SEA DEF wasn’t much better as it seemed that the LAR OFF was able to move up and down the field without much stoppage from the DEF. SEA did have a PICK6 of LAR QB Jared Goff but that was the highlight of their game. LW, CAR was blownout by ATL in ATL, 40-20. After starting the season 4-2, CAR has gone into a tailspin that they can’t get out of. QB Kyle Allen was doing a fine job, then the bottom fell out on the team. It started with the big blowout @SF in wk 8, 51-13. CAR has managed only one win after that game. CAR has lost five straight games and interim HC Perry Fewell probably doesn’t want this job moving forward anyway. There are a lot of questions to be answered in the off-season and the OFF needs more guys contributing besides RB Christian McCaffrey. Also, QB CAR is open to offers for QB Cam Newton, so his era in CAR is over. L9 SEA vs CAR, SEA 7-2 SU & 5-5 ATS. SEA 18-17-1 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 5-8 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s. SEA 34-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 33-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 4-8 ATS before ARZ. SEA 3-8 ATS L11 vs NFC OUTH. SEA 12-2 AT vs .400<opp w/rev off BB SU losses. SEA 13-2 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. SEA 2-8 ATS L10 as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. CAR 7-8-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. CAR 33-20 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 35-20 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 13-5 ATS @HOME off an SUATS loss. SEA is playing for playoff position and they need to keep winning or they may fall out of the playoff race. CAR is just in the way. SEA is on the mend here and should be able to get back on track. SEA bounced back nicely after their two previous losses earlier in the season and I see QB Russell Wilson leading them to a nice win here. He has a way of getting the team focused. Lay the points as SEA goes forward and CAR looks to make sure that no one gets injured.
THE PICK: SEA-5 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 15th, 2019 4:00pm
Jacksonville Jags (4-9), (5-8) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS JAGS+6 ½
LW, JAGS lost their 5th straight game which was a blowout @HOME to LAC, 45-10. Nothing to report about the game except that it was over @halftime. JAGS last five games, HOU 26-3, @INDY 33-13, @TENN 42-20, TB 28-11, LAC 45-10. JAGS need to blow the team up after the season and see what if any good parts remain with this club. Not much else to say. LW, OAK was embarrassed @HOME by TENN, 42-21. This is the 3rd straight blowout that OAK has suffered. They are @NYJ 34-3, @KC 40-9 & TENN 42-21. Good news is that this is the last game to be played in OAK before moving to Las Vegas for he 2020 season. OAK’s last two games are away and this is the last time they will play in the stadium that has been their HOME off and on for 60 years. If they aren’t motivated for this game, they have no business playing any more games. OAK also has major deficiencies that need to be addressed in the off-season before they officially land in Vegas but, for now, they will play out the string and see what they have that will be around in 2020. The only impressive win that OAK has had all season was vs CHI and that was in London. They lost to every team with a winning record and were blownout by NYJ. L6 JAGS vs OAK, JAG 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS. OAK 4-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. OAK 26-38-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. OAK 18-28-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. OAK 8-4-1 ATS @HOME after an SU loss >10pts. OAK 9-4 ATS vs .333<conf opp. OAK 3-11 ATS before LAC. OAK OAK 2-12-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB Su losses. OAK 8-1 ATS L9 vs AFC SOUTH. OAK 0-10 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. OAK 1-10 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off BB SUATS losses. OAK 7-0 ATS as a FAV >3pts after allowing 10>pts vs .500>opp. JAGS 6-11 ATS in 1st of BB Rg’s. JAGS 30-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 23-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 0-7 ATS in gms 13-16 as a ROAD DOG off non-div vs <.500opp. JAGS 2-10 ATS L12 vs AFC WEST. Lay the points here because it is the last game for OAK in OAK and JAGS can’t stop anyone. I expect OAK RB Josh Jacobs to have 150 yds rushing and QB Derek Carr to have at least 3TDS. So yes, I’m saying that OAK should crush JAGS for the JAGS sixth consecutive loss. The only people watching this game are OAK & JAGS fans & people who have money on it in some way. Other than that, don’t spend too much time watching this game for any other reason.
THE PICK: OAK-6 ½ 5 STARS
Cleveland Browns (6-7), (4-7-2) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (3-9-1), (8-5) ATS, (1-5-1) HOME, (3-4) ATS ARZ+2 ½
LW, CLEVE @HOME beat CINNCY. The spread was CLEVE-8 but I felt that CINNCY with nothing to lose would keep it closer than that. CINNCY had their chances keep the score close but when you’re that bad, things don’t go your way. It ended up being a PUSH but CLEVE won 27-19. CLEVE WR Odell Beckham is having his worst season and may be on his way out. Next stop, no one knows. CLEVE RB Nick Chubb is having a good season which you would think would take some pressure off of QB Baker Mayfield but at times Mayfield is his own worst enemy. Mayfield had a bad game last week vs CINNCY with 2INTS & 0TDS. Good thing RBs Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt are around to take some of the snaps and the load off of Mayfield. CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is way over his head and should be replaced for 2020. Yeah, I know that I have said it before but I haven’t changed my tune on this. A better coach in CLEVE would get better results. LW, PITT was toying with ARZ. PITT should have blownout ARZ but they got cute and only won by six points. Add in the fact that ARZ QB Kyler Murray had 3INTS & you can almost guarantee an ARZ loss. ARZ has been a disaster with a six game losing streak. During that streak they have played competitively vs SF 2x & TB otherwise the other games have not been close contests. The DEF for ARZ can’t stop anyone. ARZ #32 TOT DEF. ARZ QB Kyler Murray has been on a big learning curve this season and should be better in 2020. RB Kenyon Drake has been hot & cold since he was acquired from MIA & with RB David Johnson also being hot & cold we’ll see who stays and who goes for 2020. L3 ARZ vs CLEVE, ARZ 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. CLEVE 6-11-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEVE 23-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEVE 6-16-1 ATS L23 vs NFC. CLEVE 2-4 ATS L6 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 14-15-1 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 38-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 44-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 11-5 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 14-5 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 13-7 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. CLEV should run all day on this team. LW, PITT rushed for 140 yds vs this team and they were without their #1 RB. CLEVE#9 RUSH OFF vs ARZ #24 RUSH DEF. Baker Mayfield should have about fifteen passes total in this game and Chubb & Hunt should combine for 35 rushes. CLEVE is trying to get back to .500 and ARZ is just trying to figure things out and maybe see who should stick around for 2020. Mayfield is on a personal bounceback after having a terrible game vs CINNCY. Both of these teams have been disappointments in 2019. This may be ARZ WR Larry Fitzgerald’s last home game for ARZ as he may retire after the season. I’m sure he would like to go out with a win and CLEVE should be aware of that. Watch for turnovers that change the course of the game. I like CLEVE here to cover and win but with these teams you never know.
THE PICK: CLEVE-2 ½ 3 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (9-4), (6-6-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ LA Chargers (5-8), (4-9) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (1-5) ATS LAC+2 ½
LW, MINN beat DET 20-7 but I felt that they took it easy on a DET 3rd string QB. When you are playing a vastly inferior team you need to work through your offensive kinks so that they are working well vs a better team. That is, sort of like a tune up game. MINN only scored 2TDS & 2FGS vs DET. It should have been a blowout like I said in my analysis and they let DET score a dummy garbage time td that made the game a PUSH. A win is a win but it wasn’t a convincing win in my eyes. In football, you can’t let the other team think that they have a shot. Getting fgs vs DET DEF, let’s DET think they still have hope. LW, I thought that the JAGS would give LAC more of a fight. But, LAC owns the JAGS and they showed the JAGS no mercy. I should have seen it coming, again. But JAGS were desperate for a win after losing four straight blowouts but, LAC & Rivers have the JAGS number for as long as Rivers has been in the league. LAC RB Austin Ekeler had 101 yds rushing on eight carries. Imagine if he ran more times? This game was 31-3 in the 3rd qtr & you could turn your sets off there. This week LAC will come back down to Earth as they face a team that is trying to go deep into the playoffs, not deep into the toilet. L3 MINN vs LAC, MINN 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. MINN 12-6 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 30-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 28-35-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 6-10-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. LAC 4-10 ATS L14 in 1st of BB HG’s. LAC 29-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 29-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 19-7-1 ATS before OAK. LAC 8-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD SU win @ scored 35>pts. MINN should run RBs Dalvin Cook & Alexander Mattison at LAC until they can’t run anymore. LAC is susceptible to the run and that will open up the receivers for Cousins. Play action pass will certainly work here if MINN established the run. MINN #4 RUSH OFF vs LAC #17 RUSH DEF. MINN has to keep pace with GB because the loser of next week’s MNF matchup will not make the playoffs. MINN needs to keep winning and win convincingly. They need to fine tune their game and it would help them tremendously if WR Adam Thielen were 100% from his hamstring. He gives MINN another dimension on OFF that DEFs find hard to cover. Lay the points here because a loss by MINN would mean that they are definitely out of the playoff picture two years in a row. This is a cannot lose game for MINN or their season is over. Lay the points here.
The PICK: MINN-2 ½ 5 STARS
LA Rams (8-5), (8-4-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-1-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (6-7), (7-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS DAL+1
LW, LAR took it to SEA on SNF, 28-12. SEA was on a roll but LAR was in a must win situation or otherwise their season was pretty much over. They need to keep winning or they will not make the playoffs. The NFC is very competitive and right now, LAR are in 3rd place just in the NFC WEST. LAR QB Jared Goff didn’t have a great game and had 2INTS on consecutive possessions. One of them was a PICK6. In the 2nd half LAR only managed 1TD but SEA was having OFF problems of their own and couldn’t find the endzone as the LAR DEF was putting a lot of pressure on SEA QB Russell Wilson with 5 sacks & 1INT. LAR RUN game helped out Goff a lot by rushing for 162 yds & 2TDS. It actually was a surprise loss by SEA because they were on five game winning streak and on such a roll. LW on TNF, DAL was embarrassed @CHI. DAL came up lame and they have now lost three straight. If HC Jason Garrett does not get fired after the season, Jerry Jones has lost the ship and it may scare away others that may have wanted to play in DAL. He SHOULD put his ego aside and let others run the ship but, he won’t. He will bring in another puppet to run the show. LW, CHI built up a nice lead and watched as DAL tried to comeback but, to no avail. DAL RB Ezekial Elliott was again underutilized and only rushed 19x for 81 yds. The problem for DAL stems from the play calling that is suspect from the get go. Plus, the DAL DEF let CHI score 24 straight points so that DAL had to play catchup. DAL is not a catchup type of team and when they get into a deficit they usually don’t comeback. L7 LAR vs DAL, DAL 4-3 SUATS. LAR 7-7 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. LAR 26-42 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 31-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 1-16-1 ATS vs >400 opp off BB SU losses. LAR 1-10 ATS in gms 13-16 vs opp off SU FAV non-div loss. LAR 1-9 ATS in gms 13-16 off div vs opp off BB SU losses. LAR 7-1 ATS L8 AWAY vs opp w/rest. LAR 11-11-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 11-7-1 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. DAL 24-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 25-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 8-2 ATS as a DOG vs NFC WEST. DAL 5-11 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 2-23-1 ATS @HOME following an SU NFC loss. LAR have found that they need to keep winning to have a shot at the playoffs. DAL is just in the way. On paper, this looks like a great matchup but the DEF for LAR have to step up big and not let DAL QB Dak Prescott get comfortable. If he gets comfortable, he can pick the LAR DEF apart. DT Aaron Donald is becoming hard to handle for opposing O-LINEs because others on the D-LINE for LAR have been stepping up. The return of LB Clay Matthews has also helped LAR with shutting OFFs down. However, they had no answers for BALT a few weeks ago. Fortunately for LAR, DAL is not that talented. LAR should use their run game with Gurley & Brown to make the DAL tired. Then, use the pass to move up and down the field. I like LAR to keep winning and should beat DAL who are not going far even if they do somehow make the playoffs. Lay the point here as LAR should come away with a nice win unless they beat themselves.
THE PICK: LAR-1 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (4-9), (4-9) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ SF 49ers (11-2), (8-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS ATL+11
LW, SF took it to NO @NO. NO was up in the game 20-7 & 27-14 but SF chipped away & came storming back. SF won at the end, 48-46 with a play by TE George Kittle that will be remembered for a long time. It set up the winning fg and SF is now the #1 seed in the NFC. SF played a tough game vs an opponent they will probably see in the playoffs and they came away with a well deserved win. LW, ATL totally dominated CAR @ATL. The run game for ATL which has been known to be non existent ran through CAR for 159 yds with RBs Devonta Freeman & Brian Hill leading the way. I don’t think ATL RBs will have an easy time this week but they need to stay the course. ATL will be without WR Calvin Ridley who suffered an abdominal injury and was added to IR. ATL WR Julio Jones is having an off year and hasn’t had a 100yd game since wk 8 vs SEA, he’s due. But, vs CAR, ATL took control of the game in the 3rd qtr after leading at halftime 13-10. ATL scored 20 unanswered to make the score 33-10. Turn your sets off there. L7 ATL vs SF, ATL 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS. ATL 34-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 29-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 5-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. SF 6-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. SF 31-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 31-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 3-11 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 7-2-1 ATS as a FAV off SU DOG win. SF 6-2 ATS as a FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. SF 6-12-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 4-6 ATS L10 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 10-3 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. This is a total trap game for SF because after this game, they have two tough games to go. SF is HOME to LAR which is rematch of an earlier game where SF dominated @LAR & then they are @SEA who beat SF on a MNF game that went into OT. Those games are against teams that are not only in the SF division but are fighting for position in the NFC playoffs. ATL is going nowhere with nothing to lose and SF may take them lightly knowing that they have to have their A game for the next two games. ATL would like to finish the season on a high note before some changes are made but I think in this game, they keep the score close unless they totally throw in the towel and let SF just roll over them. ATL will give it a fight unless they turn the ball over a considerable amount of times or they give SF easy turnovers. There may be a little bit of a letdown by SF but I like SF to come out a winner but closer than the spread suggests.
THE PICK: ATL+11 5 STARS
Sunday December 15th, 2019 8:20pm
Buffalo Bills (9-4), (8-4-1) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-0-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5), (7-5-1) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS BUFF+2
LW, PITT beat ARZ in ARZ. It wasn’t pretty because PITT only beat ARZ by six points. It was a very sloppy game by both teams and it was decided in the last few minutes of the game. PITT had 2 lost fumbles, one of them on a botched fake punt that led to an easy ARZ TD. The other fumble led to an ARZ fg. Ten points on turnovers against PITT is unusual. Had ARZ not been sloppier than PITT, this game may have been a loss for PITT. Possible trap game? ARZ QB Kyler Murray had 3INTS, two of them caught by PITT CB Joe Haden. One of them led to a PITT TD. The game plan for PITT was top heavy in the rushing department as they rushed 35x for 140 yds. PITT QB Devlin Hodges only threw 19 passes, completing sixteen of them for 152 yds & 1TD. This week PITT is supposed to get back RB James Conner from a shoulder injury & WR JuJu Smith-Schuster from a knee injury. But both have not yet been confirmed. LW, BUFF was @HOME vs BALT. It was a seesaw battle in the 1st half with BALT leading 10-6 at halftime. BALT surged out to a 24-9 lead in the 4th qtr and BUFF tried in vain to comeback. BUFF scored a td with a 2pt conversion to make the final score BALT 24-17. It was a tight football game but BUFF QB Josh Allen was sacked 6x which led to BUFF getting away from their running game. BUFF RB Devin Singletary rushed 17x for 89 yds but the BALT DEF kept BUFF in check for most of the game. BUFF DEF gave up 3TDS by BALT QB Lamar Jackson, all in the air. BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. BUFF needs to step it up and create some turnovers. L5 BUFF vs PITT, PITT 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS. BUFF 7-8-1 ATS L16 in 1st of BB RG’s. BUFF 6-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s vs non-div opp. BUFF 36-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 29-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 8-12 ATS L20 as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 7-6 ATS L13 before NE. BUFF 7-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. BUFF 6-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. BUFF 2-9 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. PITT 41-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 47-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 12-16 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PITT 9-11 ATS @HOME on SNF. This is a must win game for BUFF to keep pace in the AFC. They have been very good after an SU loss in 2019, 3-0 SUATS. But if you look at their record, they haven’t beaten anyone over .500. This game is a big test for BUFF because if pressure is put on by the BUFF DEF, PITT will fold. BUFF is fighting for a playoff position as they are not overtaking NE. But they must beat a team like PITT who is playoff caliber. PITT has been very inconsistent and have had many key injuries to deal with. The fact that they are over .500 after losing Big Ben is amazing but they still face BALT in wk 17. This will be another tough test for them and this game will certainly be tight but BUFF should win. BUFF needs to run the ball with Singletary & Gore and wear the PITT DEF out. This way, QB Josh Allen will not feel pressured into having the game all on his shoulders to make a play. Turnovers will play a key role and could shift the momentum in this game but, take the points and BUFF and enjoy the game.
THE PICK: BUFF+2 3 STARS
Monday December 16th, 2019 8:15pm
Indianapolis Colts (6-7), (7-5-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-1-1) ATS @ NO Saints (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (3-4) ATS INDY+9
LW, NO @HOME was up 20-7 & 27-14 in the 2nd qtr but let SF take the lead 28-27 by the end of the 2nd qtr. From then on it was a seesaw battle between these two clubs and SF came away with a fg at the end and a big win 48-46. NO DEF was picked apart by SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo. NO QB Drew Brees had a great day 5TDS, 0INTS, 29-40 for 349 yds but, he was going toe to toe with SF. I liked SF in this game getting points(+2 ½) but I even thought that SF would win outright. I didn’t think it would be a shootout but, that’s what happened. SF was in bounceback after their loss @BALT & they weren’t going to lose a second in a row. LW, INDY was @TB and it was a sloppy game for both teams but INDY found themselves ahead 35-21. But then the bottom fell out and INDY ended up losing 38-35. The last three games have seen a lot of mistakes for INDY coupled with some injuries. The OFF has taken what the DEF gives them but the INDY DEF has given up a lot. L3 NO vs INDY, NO 2-1 SUATS. This includes a game @NO in 2011 when NO won 62-7. INDY was w/o Peyton Manning in that game as he was injured and on the sidelines watching. NO 7-5-1 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. NO 25-40 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 31-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 11-7 SU & 98 ATS on MNF. NO 9-12 ATS L21 @HOME vs AFC. NO 3-11 ATS as a non-conf FAV 3>pts. NO 1-6 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s vs non-div opp. NO 0-6 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV >4pts. INDY 9-5 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. INDY 33-34-1 AT AWAY in DEC. INDY 32-27-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 21-7-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off an SU loss. INDY 1-6 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 11-1 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 3-7 ATS vs non-div opp off FAV loss. INDY 2-11 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. NO is on a bounceback and is fighting for position in the NFC playoff picture. Their schedule is not that bad but they cannot take these teams for granted. They need to get back on track here. INDY has lost three straight games, anyone of them INDY could have won and should have won. All of a sudden INDY has lost its way. Now they face a team that is much better and coming off a loss. NO & Drew Brees will put the metal to the petal in Louisiana and INDY is basically knocked out of the playoff picture in the AFC. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-9 5 STARS