2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 16
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Saturday December 21st, 2019 1:00pm
Houston Texans (9-5), (7-7) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ TB Bucs (7-7), (6-7-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (0-5-1) ATS TB+3
LW, I liked HOU getting points @TENN. HOU didn’t disappoint because they made the most of their opportunities but had to hold on at the end as TENN touched the ball last. HOU HC Bill O’Brien plays a conservative game and does not take risks. There is a lot of talent on this HOU team but O’Brien doesn’t use it correctly. I don’t think this team will go far in the playoffs because of O‘Brien. Seven of the HOU nine wins have been by seven points or less. This means that one possession has separated them from losing a lot of games. Only two games have they won by blowouts and that was vs ATL & @JAGS in London. They did beat NE but NE almost made a nice comeback. In certain games, HOU looks good and then just when you think they have turned the corner, they lose. HOU may have a winning record but they are not solid and can be beaten. They will not go far because their DEF is penetrable. HOU #28 TOT DEF. LW, TB was @DET leading 24-17 when it looked like DET may put together a drive to tie the game. Instead DET QB David Blough threw a bad pass that was intercepted by TB CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and returned 70 yards for a TD. That put the score at TB 31-17 and took the sails out of the winds for DET. TB tacked on another TD for good measure and there was your final score, TB 38-17. But earlier TB was up in this game 24-3 and sort of went to sleep while DET went to work. The running game for TB was pretty much nil at 49 yds but TB QB Jameis Winston had a very good game passing 28/42 & 458 yds with 4TDS & 1INT. Winston’s one INT was at the beginning of the game and didn’t lead to any points by DET. As the season has been progressing, Winston has been having better games even though he needs to cut down on his INTS. L3 HOU vs TB, HOU 3-0 SUATS. TB 12-16-2 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. TB 6-8 ATS L14 in 1st of BB HG’s. TB 32-33-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 33-40-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 9-4 ATS vs non-conf opp off SUATS win. TB 2-6 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s vs non-div. TB 1-6 ATS before ATL. HOU 10-9-1 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 6-9 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. HOU 17-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 12-16 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 4-12-1 ATS before TENN. HOU 6-2 ATS as a RF 3<pts. HOU 1-8 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off SU win vs AFC opp. HOU 6-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts off SU win. HOU 2-7 ATS AWAY off SU div win. This is a game where HOU may be thinking about the rematch with TENN in two weeks instead of focusing on the game at hand. TB is not going to the playoffs but should make it difficult here for HOU because they are trying to end the season with a winning record. HOU tends to underestimate their opponents and then fall flat. HOU @HOME was big FAV vs DEN and lost outright by 14pts. HOU will try to attack with the running game but will probably be stopped as other teams have throughout the season. HOU #7 RUSH OFF vs TB #1 RUSH DEF. That’s where it will be mostly be on HOU QB Deshaun Watson. TB DEF does make plays and just when you think they are sleeping they come back to bite you. Take the HOME team here and the points because TB has something to play for and may surprise HOU. This game may go down to the wire.
THE PICK: TB+3 3 STARS
Saturday December 21st, 2019 4:30pm
Buffalo Bills (10-4), (9-4-1) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (6-0-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (11-3), (8-6) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS BUFF+6 ½
LW, BUF did what they had to do @PITT. I liked them in that game because they need to keep pace for the wild card spot in the AFC. They smothered PITT with 4INTS & only allowed 1TD. I also knew it would be a low scoring game and BUFF QB Josh Allen would play smarter. PITT has an intimidating DEF with many players who step up but, Allen stayed calm and didn’t fluster and also didn’t commit turnovers that were costly. BUFF did have 1INT & RB Devin Singletary did fumble but no points were scored by PITT as a result. The BUFF DEF made stops when they needed to. BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #10 RUSH DEF. BUFF has lost their four games by 6, 18, 3 & 7 pts. The lone blowout game having being dismantled @HOME by PHILLY. LW, CINNCY @HOME was just waiting to be rocked by NE. it didn’t help that CINNCY QB Andy Dalton threw 4INTS in the 2nd half, including a PICK6, that blew open the game for NE. The score was NE 13-10 @halftime and it looked like NE was having their problems on OFF. The DEF saved the game for NE even though the NE DEF did allow 136 yds rushing from CINNCY RB Joe Mixon. NE #1 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #7 RUSH DEF. NE had a nice rushing game of their own, with 175 yds total & 1TD. NE RB Rex Burkhead had a nice game getting into the mix with 53 yds & 1TD. Tom Brady had an average day as he continues to struggle this season. L25 NE vs BUFF, NE 22-3 SU & 15-8-2 ATS. L12 NE (H) vs BUFF, NE 10-2 SU but, 5-6-1 ATS. L32 NE vs BUFF, NE 29-3 SU. NE 7-6 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. NE 48-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 36-22 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 36-22 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 11-4-1 ATS L16 in 2nd of BB RG’s. BUFF 36-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 30-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 26-26 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 6-7 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. Both of these teams have strong defenses and don’t give up much. Yeah, NE schedule has been weak and they beat up CINNCY, so what. If they had lost, then there is certainly some trouble brewing but NE made adjustments and rolled. BUFF is tough and this game will not be easy. There is revenge here for BUFF from wk 4 in BUFF, when NE won 16-10. That was a struggle for both teams but in particular for NE who seemed out of sync on OFF. Their struggles seem to continue and BUFF is certainly looking for some revenge here. This will be another low scoring game and closer than the spread suggests. Turnovers will loom large as they could change the momentum of the game. BUFF QB Josh Allen will certainly have to be even more careful with a secondary that leads the NFL in INTS. This should be a good game and may go down to the wire. Brady has owned BUFF in his career but BUFF had been very bad for a long time. I like BUFF with the points here because they will try to take Brady off his game. BUFF HC Sean McDermott is smart enough to make adjustments at halftime if things are not working in the 1st half. This should be a very good game.
THE PICK: BUFF+6 ½ 5 STARS
Saturday December 21st, 2019 8:15pm
LA Rams (8-6), (8-5-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-2-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (11-3), (8-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (3-4) ATS LAR+6 ½
LW, SF laid an egg @HOME vs ATL. I saw it coming in my analysis because of the big win the week before @NO. They put everything into that effort vs NO and had nothing left in the tank vs ATL. ATL had nothing to lose and played their hearts out. I also felt that if SF did win, it wouldn’t be by much and the ATL+11 was a gift that needed to be received. Unfortunately for SF, with that loss they went from #1 seed to the #5 seed currently. These last two games are crucial if SF wants to capture a bye and better playoff standing. SF didn’t give up much vs ATL but they didn’t put out much either. You can’t keep going to your TE George Kittle all the time because the DEF will eventually be waiting. Get the message Jimmy G? The DEF for SF was banged up and some key players were absent vs ATL. Some guys will be back for this game because it is a must win game before they play @SEA in wk 17. LW, LAR was a complete dud @DAL 44-21. At times, the OFF for LAR didn’t look in sync and the DAL DEF took advantage of it. LAR RB Todd Gurley had 20 yds rushing on 11 carries. LAR QB Jared Goff threw 51x in a total catchup game. Believe it or not, this game was DAL 14-7 but LAR couldn’t get their OFF going. On DEF for LAR, DAL rushed for 263 yards & 3TDS. As a result, LAR were knocked out of the playoff hunt. These two teams met @LAR in wk 6 and SF took it to them 20-7. LAR QB Jared Goff was sacked 4x in the game but RB Todd Gurley did not play. To be honest, SF dominated the game and LAR were lucky that the score wasn’t worse. SF #2 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF & #21 RUSH DEF. For LAR they need to have a successful run game because Goff is not the kind of guy who can improvise and make things happen. He is just not that guy. If he gets pressured by the SF DEF, he will fold. That should be the game plan for SF. L12 SF(H) vs LAR, SF 7-4-1 SU & 7-5 ATS. L25 SF vs LAR, SF 16-8-1 SU & 14-11 ATS. SF 5-9 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB HG’s. SF 20-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 31-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 32-40 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 3-12 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 10-2 SU & 6-4-2 ATS last HOME gm L12 seasons. SF 1-8 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. SF 2-10 ATS @HOME vs opp off DD SU loss. SF 2-6-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. LAR 4-10 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. LAR 23-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 26-35 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 26-43 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 8-1-1 ATS w/revenge off DD SU loss vs conf opp. LAR 4-21 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. LAR 1-11 ATS in gms 13-16 vs opp off SU FAV non-div loss. This week, you have a deflated LAR team with essentially nothing to play for and a SF team that is coming off a loss and everything to play for. SF needs to run the ball as much as humanly possible against the LAR and sprinkle it with some passes to the receiving core. SF #2 RUSH OFF vs LAR # 23 RUSH DEF. SF needs to come out like they did @NO. But, not start out with a deficit. Start strong from the opening bell. Lay the points here as SF completes the sweep of LAR and heads toward the playoffs.
THE PICK: SF-6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 22nd, 2019 1:00pm
Jacksonville Jags (5-9), (6-8) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (5-9), (5-9) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS JAGS+7
LW, JAGS spoiled OAK’s last game ever in OAK. OAK had a little to do with it too but, JAGS were down 16-3 @halftime and QB Gardner Minshew mounted 2TDS late in the 4th qtr for a comeback win in the last minute 20-16. JAGS have been a major bust this season and EVC Tom Coughlin was fired this past week. The season of 2017 is looking more like a fluke for the JAGS then a turn around for the organization. This team needs a lot of reorganizing and I don’t know if HC Doug Marrone makes it to 2020. LW, ATL did what I expected them to do @SF. SF was coming off that big win @NO so there would be a little bit of a letdown for SF vs ATL. ATL knew that this might be their SuperBowl. There was a big spread, ATL+11. ATL always plays SF tight. ATL DEF came up big when they needed it and ATL ended up winning the game. ATL HC Dan Quinn is on the hot seat because he has not delivered on what was promised. He was a defensive guru with SEA and that has not transformed here in ATL. Plus, a second consecutive losing season with so much talent doesn’t cut it either. L3 ATL vs JAGS, ATL 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. ATL 29-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 33-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 9-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 0-11 ATS @HOME vs >.333non-conf opp. ATL 7-1 ATS ATS in gms 13-16 off AWAY vs <.500 non-div opp. ATL 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 when <.500 @HOME vs opp off AWAY gm. JAGS 8-9 ATS L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. JAGS 31-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 24-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 4-27 SU & 7-24 ATS L31 vs NFC. JAGS 1-11 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 1-11-1 ATS L13 before INDY. JAGS 2-14 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 1-10 ATS SUATS L11 vs NFC SOUTH. JAGS 0-7 ATS in gms 13-16 as a ROAD DOG off non-div vs <.500opp. JAGS 1-11 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. JAGS 1-7 ATS off SU DOG win. This is another one of those games that means nothing. ATL has OFF firepower that JAGS DEF may not be able to stop. They may very well put on a show here. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew has definitely changed the JAGS minds of QB Nick Foles. But he can’t do it alone. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette has been inconsistent. We’ll see if he sticks around for 2020. The ATL DEF at times has been atrocious. ATL #20 TOT DEF. JAGS DEF hasn’t been much better. JAGS #24 TOT DEF. This game could be a shootout depending on whether or not the D-LINE for ATL pressures Minshew. But ATL should win by 10 points here. Lay the points in another meaningless game.
THE PICK: ATL-7 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (12-2), (9-4-1) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (6-0-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (6-8), (4-8-2) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (2-3-2) ATS CLEVE+9 ½
LW on TNF, BALT @HOME toyed with NYJ, 42-21. If BALT wanted to, they could have scored 60 points on this team. It was like taking candy from a baby. I compared to the other TNF contest between NE & NYG. BALT was only deficient in one area, special teams. But as BALT HC John Harbaugh is accustomed to, he will certainly shore up that area going forward so that there are no mistakes. BALT QB Lamar Jackson passed for 5TDs, 0turnovers. Disregard the NYJ stats for this game because BALT was leading 35-7 in the 3rd qtr and NYJ were basically playing catchup the whole game. BALT also rushed for 218 yds, led by Jackson on eight carries for 86 yds. Plus, NYJ had some suspect play calling on a couple of 4th downs that actually could have made this a closer game. LW, CLEVE @ARZ was embarrassed 38-24. CLEVE still had a chance for a possible wild card spot but eliminated themselves by falling behind early to an ARZ team with nothing to play for. CLEVE played catchup the whole game and couldn’t catch ARZ by a long shot. The DEF for CLEVE was terrible as ARZ rushed for 226 yds behind RB Kenyon Drake’s 22 carries for 137 yds & 4TDS. CLEVE wasted the effort of RB Nick Chubb who rushed 17x for 127 yds & 1TD. I have said this all season but CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is over his head and if CLEVE had a better HC, they would have a better record, period. There is a lot of talent on this team but it is not being cultivated right. It is being squandered and that talent may go elsewhere after the season. Now they face a BALT team that is looking for revenge for the wk 4 loss they suffered @HOME to CLEVE. You don’t think that the BALT players are thinking about this? CLEVE put up 40 points vs BALT. This is the most that BALT has given up all season. Plus, BALT would like to keep their #1 seed going into the playoffs. L23 BALT vs CLEVE, BALT 19-4 SU & 14-9 ATS. L20 BALT vs CLEVE, ROAD 13-7 ATS. L12 BALT @CLEVE, BALT 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS. BALT 13-11-1 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 25-24 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. BALT 35-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 29-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 2-9 ATS L11 before PITT. BALT 8-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. BALT 0-16 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. BALT 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD SU win vs opp off SU AWAY loss. CLEVE 17-23-1 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. CLEVE 15-25-2 ATS @HomE in DEC. CLEVE 12-21-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEVE 32-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEVE 12-5 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEVE 5-7 ATS L12 before CINNCY. CLEVE 6-2 ATS off non conf RAOD gm s div opp. CLEVE 3-7 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off DD SU win. CLEVE 1-9-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEVE 2-11 as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. CLEVE 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 vs div opp w/revenge. BALT will bum rush CLEVE in every down to avenge their earlier loss. Currently, this is two teams going in opposite directions. CLEVE had it all together when they beat BALT, PITT & BUFF. But they have looked atrocious when they lost @SF, @NE, @DEN @ @ARZ. This team looks like they have packed it in. Plus, the rumors that CLEVE players were telling the ARZ bench to “take me” doesn’t sit well with the team retaining some of these players. Lay the points here as BALT gives CLEVE a beat down for their earlier loss. BALT will score 40 points on CLEVE as it looks like they have gone home for the season. CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens will probably be let go on Black Monday after they lose next week @CINNCY.
THE PICK: BALT-9 ½ 5 STARS
NO Saints (11-3), (9-5) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (8-6), (8-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS TENN+2 ½
On MNF, NO @HOME beat up a depleted INDY team, 34-7. It wasn’t even that close as NO could have run up the score and scored 50 points. Yes, they could have. NO has to keep inning to get #2 or #1 seed and at least a HOME game in the playoffs. Due to missed opportunities the last two years for NO, this is big. CB Janoris Jenkins who was just released by NYG and picked up by NO should be a factor if not motivated with his new team and a chance at the playoffs and beyond. INDY could not get anything going as their OFF corps are depleted with injuries. LW, TENN lost @HOME to HOU. I liked HOU getting points at TENN because HOU was coming off a loss and they were in bounceback mode. TENN made a couple of mistakes and may have won the game outright had they made some better decisions down the stretch. But right now, they need to keep on winning just to be considered for a wild card. However, off a loss, they are playing against a NO team that is also playing for something because of the tight race in the NFC. NO is not just playing out the string, they want position. TENN #8 RUSH OFF vs NO #4 RUSH DEF. TENN RB Derrick Henry actually had a sub par day rushing vs HOU. He only had 21 carries for 86 yards. That was his lowest total in five games and he will certainly test the waters vs NO. But NO will be waiting. L3 TENN vs NO, TENN 2-1 SUATS. However, ROAD 3-0 SUATS. NO 13-14 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. NO 6-6 ATS L12 in 1st of BB RG’s. NO 32-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 32-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 0-6 ATS AWAY off SU win on MNF. NO 8-8 ATS L16 after MNF. NO NO 5-9 ATS before CAR. NO 0-5 ATS AWAY off DD SU win vs <.500 non-div opp. TENN 12-15-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. TENN 5-7-1 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. TENN 35-34 ATS @HOME in Dec. TENN 27-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 7-0-1 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 13-6 ATS vs NFC SOUT. TENN 9-0 ATS L9 vs .600>opp off ATS win. Even though NO is coming off a blowout win @HOME and TENN is coming off a loss and is in bounceback mode, I like NO to win and cover. There are motivating factors for NO and they can’t just lay down and wait for others. NO EF will take away the TENN run and put it all on Tannehill’s arm. This is where we’ll see if he has matured since MIA. But I think the NO DEF will be waiting there too. NO must keep winning for position and beyond. Lay the points here as TENN take sit on the chin.
THE PICK: NO-2 ½ 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (5-9), (6-7-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (6-8), (7-6-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS CAR+6 ½
LW, CAR @HOME was down to SEA 30-10 before they starting making a comeback. Unfortunately for CAR, it was too little too late. They made it SEA 30-24 and that what the final score was. CAR dug a big hole at 20-7 and couldn’t get out of it. CAR QB Kyle Allen had 3INTS that fortunately only led to 3pts for SEA But, at the time it increased the score from 20-10 to 23-10. CAR RB Christian McCaffrey has been a one man wrecking crew but he can’t do it alone and in the off season CAR should find someone to share the load in the backfield. He had his usual good game ve SEA & so did WR DJ Moore but really no one else stood out on OFF. Plus, the DEF has to make stops. CAR DEF let SEA RB Chris Carson rush 24x for 133yds & 2TDS. On MNF, INDY was slammed @NO, 34-7. The score was 34-0 and honestly it could have been much worse. The DEF for INDY was picked apart by a NO team that was coming off a loss and fighting for playoff position. Take those two into account and you have a very tough game to play. INDY had 46 yds rushing and not much else to talk about as NO went up and down the field. The INDY DEF didn’t make too many stops of NO. The only thing that stopped NO, was NO. At times, it seemed like they eased up to not run up the score. L3 INDY vs CAR, CAR 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS. AWAY TEAM 3-0 ATS. CAR 29-23 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 35-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 10-5 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div. INDY 31-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 30-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 1-8 ATS before JAGS. INDY 5-0 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 11-2 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD SU loss vs >500>opp. Both of these teams have had major disappointments this season and both teams are in the middle of losing streaks. CAR has lost six games straight and INDY has lost four games straight. Neither one is going to the playoffs. CAR certainly will be going through some restructuring and personnel changes. While INDY’s problems stem from all the injuries to their key players that led to the losses. INDY’s record would be a lot better had it not been for injuries. There is a lot of talent here. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests and I don’t see a blowout by either team. I like CAR here with the points even though this is a meaningless game, it could go down to the wire. Turnovers in this game will loom large because neither team turns the ball over a lot. But, I like CAR with the points in a close game either way.
THE PICK: CAR+6 ½ 3 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (1-13), (6-7-1) ATS, (0-7) AWAY, (4-2-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-11), (7-7) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS CINNCY+1
LW, MIA @NYG let the game get completely out of hand. The score was actually MIA 10-7 at halftime but then MIA let things get out of hand in the 2nd half and NYG scored a TD, a safety, a TD, another TD and another TD. MIA added a dummy TD at the end but the final score was NYG 36-20. NYG scored 29 points in the 2nd half. Even though NYG QB Eli Manning threw 3INTS, MIA only managed 6pts off of them. The MIA OFF ended up with nice stats but were playing catchup the whole 2nd half. It was blow out and a lost cause. The DEF for MIA was on lay down the entire 2nd half. LW, CINNCY was hanging tight @HOME vs NE. The score was NE 13-10 at halftime but CINNCY QB Andy Dalton threw 4INTS in the 2nd half with one being a PICK6. NE blew the game wide open with all those gifts. Final score, NE 34-13. Nothing has gone right for CINNCY in 2019 and HC Zac Tylor, if he gets another season, needs to tear things down and rebuild it up. The team is terrible from almost every position. Who knows if QB Andy Dalton will be in a CINNCY uniform next year? He hasn’t exactly excited anyone during his whole tenure in CINNCY with 0 playoff wins. The only bright spots in 2019 are RBs Joe Mixon & Giovani Bernard. Other than them, get rid of everybody. L7 MIA vs CINNCY, MIA 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. MIA 29-43 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 22-51 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 14-22 ATS L36 in DEC. MIA 4-14-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 7-2 ATS before NE. MIA 12-3-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs conf opp off DD ATS loss. CINNCY 25-29-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 41-36-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 2-9 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. CINNCY 6-10 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses. MIA can’t lose to a team that is worse than them. CINNCY # 26 TOT OFF & # 29 TOT DEF. MIA is not much better MIA #29 TOT OFF & #30 TOT DEF. This game is looking more like a shootout and will be decided in the last minutes of the game. The team that has the ball the last will win. Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses but one of these teams will come out victorious here. No one will be watching this game except MIA & CINNCY fans & of course gamblers. I like MIA more in this game because MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than anyone that CINNCY puts on the field for their QB. MIA should win this game.
THE PICK: MIA-1 3 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6), (7-6-1) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ NY Jets (5-9), (5-9) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS NYJ+3
LW, PITT @HOME on SNF lost to BUFF. PITT QB Devlin Hodges had 4INTS that led to the loss 17-10. But, give credit to the BUFF DEF as they stopped PITT from getting into any kind of rhythm. BUFF CB Tre’Davious White had 2 of the 4INTS by Hodges. PITT rushing attack managed only 51 yards. PITT RB James Connor who came back from a shoulder injury, was used sparingly, rushed 8x for 42 yards. Why he wasn’t used more, I don’t know. I knew it would be a low scoring game and I liked that BUFF was bouncing back off the loss vs BALT. BUFF had played BALT tight and BUFF too is playing for playoff position. LW, on TNF, NYJ were crushed @BALT, 42-21. If you watched the game, BALT was just toying with NYJ. BALT could have easily scored 60 points if they really put the metal to the petal. NYJ made suspect OFF calls, (again by HC Adam Gase) in the red zone that on drives led to 0 points. Gase had that expression on his face like he really thinks that they could have beaten BALT. There is so much that is wrong with NYJ and it starts with him. NYJ RB Le’Veon Bell looked good rushing 21x for 87 yards. For Le’Veon, this was his best game of the season. For NYJ QB Sam Darnold to keep improving and getting better he needs someone to show him and coach him so that he doesn’t keep making the same mistakes. I don’t know if Gase is that guy. Well, NYJ face another playoff caliber team this week that is fighting for playoff position and coming off a loss, not a good combination to be facing. L7 PITT vs NYJ, PITT 4-3 SUATS. PITT 15-21 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 5-9 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. PITT 28-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 39-43 ATS as a FAV n DEC. PITT 5-15 ATS L20 as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PITT 8-19 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf. PITT 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off SUATS loss vs opp off DD ATS loss. PITT 15-3 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. NYJ 19-15-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 23-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 40-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 7-4 ATS L11 before BUFF. NYJ 1-8 ATS after TNF. NYJ 5-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ NYJ 1-12 ATS in gms 13-16 as a DOG 7<pts vs opp on 2nd BB non-div gm. NYJ 5-0 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. PITT still has something to play for which is a wild card spot in the playoffs. NYJ really have nothing to play for as they have already been guaranteed a losing season. PIIT will get back on track as they take it to the NYJ to further secure their spot for the playoffs. PITT DEF has certainly gotten better since the beginning of the season. They do not give up too many points. PITT #5 PASS DEF. They are also 2nd in the NFL in INTS. Considering that Darnold is prone to the INT, watch out. PITT HC Mike Tomlin has done a great job with a team that has lost a lot of players to injuries but has a winning record and will probably be in the playoffs. PITT has done well after a loss except for early in the season when Big Ben was injured and there was a mad scramble to see who would fill in for him. NYJ RB Le’Veon Bell may be pumped for this game against his former team but, the PITT DEF will be waiting. PITT wins here after the loss to BUFF and bounces back against NYJ. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PITT-3 5 STARS
NY Giants (3-11), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Washington Redskins (3-11), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (2-5) ATS NYG+2 ½
LW, NYG QB Eli Manning probably played his last game as a GIANT. It was a good one and the NYG beat MIA 36-20. MIA’s DEF was a total letdown in the 2nd half and NYG & Eli took total advantage of it. Granted there are some good players on NYG but the DEF isn’t worth anything & HC Pat Shurmur & GM Dave Gettlemen should go. The jury is still out on QB Daniel Jones and he is starting this game coming off his high ankle sprain. LW, WASH was only down one score vs PHILLY but, in a seesaw battle the WASH DEF couldn’t make a stop. I liked WASH+4 ½ LW and they were only down by four when WASH was down to their last play. Well, instead of a hail mary, they did one of those lateral plays and needless to say, PHILLY picked it up and scored a TD. Instead of losing by four pts, WASH lost by ten points and the cover and the game was lost. WASH is a very bad team too. These two teams met in wk4 with NYG winning 24-3. In that game WASH QB Dwayne Haskins saw his first action of the season and it wasn’t pretty. He found out this isn’t college anymore and he went 9-17, 107 yds & 3INTS. I’m sure he would like to forget and avenge that game with a nice game here. L12 WASH(H) vs NYG WASH 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS. L18 WASH vs NYG, DOG 10-8 ATS. WASH 8-6 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB HG’s. WASH 26-35 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 23-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 33-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 12-3 ATS L15 before DAL. WASH 1-9 ATS @HOME vs .250<conf opp. WASH 2-8 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 2-9 ATS as a conf FAV off div gm. NYG 31-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 35-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 42-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 14-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 5-7 ATS vs <.400opp. This is another battle of the toilet bowl. Both of these teams have major problems that need to be addressed in the off season. The spread isn’t that big that it may worry but WASH needs to show something before they go into a total rehaul in the off season. I like the HOME team here but this game could go either way because of the sloppiness of both teams. Turnovers will prove costly but this is the last HOME game of the season for WASH and I’m sure they would at least like to go out with a win. NYG QB Daniel Jones has shown that if he is pressured he will certainly make mistakes. That is what the WASH DEF should keep in mind. As for this game I don’t see too much excitement coming from this except a better draft position next spring. Lay the points here as WASH should avenge their earlier loss.
THE PICK: WASH-2 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday December 22nd, 2019 4:00pm
Detroit Lions (3-10-1), (4-9-1) ATS, (1-5-1) AWAY, (2-4-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (5-9), (8-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (4-2) ATS DET+7
LW, DEN+10 was at KC. There was big snowstorm during the game and DEN couldn’t get anything going and lost 23-3. I thought it would be a closer game considering the way KC manhandles DEN @DEN on TNF in wk7. DEN QB Drew Lock didn’t have a good game but either did the rest of the DEN team. DEN has been a disappointment for sure when there were high hopes after acquiring QB Joe Flacco in the off-season. Flacco looks like he’s done. LW, DET lost @HOME to TB, 38-17. This game was actually TB 24-17 and DET QB David Blough threw a PICK6 which really sealed the game for TB. DET was trying to make a nice comeback and was at one point trailing 24-3 but Blough made a very bad pass and it was returned for a TD. Also, it was announced this week that HC Matt Patricia would be returning for 2020. He has been a disaster and actually hasn’t transformed this team into a contender. As a DEF guru for NE he was brilliant. But as the HC, he has been awful. DET #31 TOT DEF. Seven of DET’s ten losses have been by eight points or less. That’s how fine tuned the NFL is. One possession either way could make you contenders or loveable losers. But it is that discipline and fine tuning that makes you a winner and not a loser. L3 DET vs DEN, DET 2-1 SUATS. DET 39-39-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 30-32-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 5-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. DET 2-9 ATS before GB. DET 8-3 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss. DET 2-12 ATS in gms 13-16 vs <.500 opp off DD ATS loss. DEN 7-4-2 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. DEN 25-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 35-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 3-11 ATS as a FAV after scoring 14<pts. DEN 9-1 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD ATS div loss. DEN 0-4 ATS L4 before OAK. There is some talent on both of these teams and they will be evaluated in the off-season. This is another meaningless game except for the players looking to retain their jobs. It could be a low scoring game if the weather is bad but I don’t see a blowout by either team. I like the points here because I think the game will be closer than the spread suggests. But it could go either way because both teams are so inconsistent. DET is desperate for win after losing seven straight. Take the points here.
THE PICK: DET+7 3 STARS
Oakland Raiders (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ LA Chargers (5-9), (4-10) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (1-6) ATS OAK+6 ½
LW, LAC @HOME were leading 10-9 in the 2nd when their roof caved in. LAC QB Philip Rivers had 3INTS & 1 fumble. The fumble was returned for a TD. All in all LAC had 7 turnovers that resulted in 20pts for MINN. The final score was MINN 39-10. LAC QB Philip Rivers is not signed past this season and LAC should part ways with him. In the meantime it has been a disaster of a season for LAC after 2018 was so promising at 12-4. MINN poured it on in the 2nd half and LAC helped by turning the ball over and making it easy for them. LW, OAK was playing their final HOME gm in OAK. OAK was leading 16-3 but OAK suspect play calling going forward and no DEF led to the JAGS mounting a comeback and winning the game 20-16 in the final seconds of the game. OAK HC Jon Gruden is to blame here as OAK scored 0pts in the 2nd half of this game vs a JAGS DEF that let OAK run up and down the field and really couldn’t stop OAK from getting into JAGS territory 1x all day. Plus, the fact that RB Josh Jacobs ran well but was injured and is out for this game. L12 LAC (H) vs OAK, LAC 8-4 SU but 5-6-1 ATS. L23 LAC vs OAK, ROAD 12-9-1 ATS 1NL. L20 LAC vs OAK, DOG 14-4-1 ATS 1NL. LAC 5-9 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAC 29-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 34-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 28-32 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 8-1 ATS w/revenge off DD ATS loss. LAC 3-10 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs .400>opp. LAC 3-13 ATS before KC. LAC 1-8 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 0-8 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. LAC 12-1 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp off ATS loss. OAK 7-10 ATS L17 in 1st of BB RG’s. OAK 24-38 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. OAK 20-42-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. OAK 28-54-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. OAK 18-4 ATS as a DIV ROAD DOG >3pts off SU loss. OAK 14-2 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY off SU loss vs div opp. OAK 8-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt off SU loss vs <.500 opp. This is a another of one of the many games this weekend that no one cares and is irrelevant to the playoff picture but, on paper LAC is more talented than OAK. In the 1st meeting in wk 10 on TNF, Rivers lost the game for LA all by himself by throwing 3INTS. One of which was a PICK6. He also had a fumble that night. LAC was the slight FAV but OAK ended up winning 26-24. LAC has a lot of talent and they are still playing for jobs in 2020. OAK isn’t really playing for anything because the track record of HC Jon Gruden has shown that no one’s job is safe even if he is an ALL-STAR. With impending move to Las Vegas, I do not think the moral in OAK is that high. Some guys have already packed their bags. But, Gruden doesn’t like to go out as a loser. I would take the points here because LAC has some revenge on their minds and after a blowout a team usually bounces back. But I think that LAC does win but, by a slighter margin than what the spread suggests. Look for this game to be sloppy and for it to come down to the wire. Both of these teams will be playing in different HOME fields in 2020.
THE PICK: OAK+7 3 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-7), (5-9) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (2-5) ATS PHILLY+2 ½
LW, DAL @HOME certainly took it the LAR 44-21. LAR couldn’t really get anything going until it was too late and the DAL OFF couldn’t be stopped. This game had DAL leading 37-7 late in the 4th qtr. DAL was playing for their playoff lives. DAL HC Jason Garrett knows that he is under the gun and has to keep winning. DAL OFF rushed for 263 yds & 3TDS which kept the LAR DEF off balance for most of the game. LAR DEF had no sacks of DAL QB Dak Prescott & DAL had 0turnovers as well. LAR were playing catchup the whole game after being tied in the 2nd qtr at 7-7. But DAL took off and scored 30 unanswered points. DAL was coming off a three game losing streak where they lost @NE, BUFF @CHI. This was a desperate game for a desperate team. As for PHILLY, LW they beat WASH, so what. It took until the end of the game to decide the winner because the game was going back and forth. The week before it took OT to beat NYG. This was after a 3 game losing streak where they lost to NE, SEA & @MIA. After the WASH game, you would have thought that PHILLY had just won the SuperBowl the way QB Carson Wentz was acting. PHILLY beat two of the NFL’s worst teams and lost to one of the worst. Yes, PHILLY OFF has been decimated by injuries but, that is a part of the game. Also, Wentz hasn’t exactly looked great in these last two games either. Yes, he had some nice td passes but they were against DEFs that are at the bottom of the NFL. Wentz has been inconsistent when he has faced pressure and this week he will be under a lot of pressure. L12 DAL @PHILLY, DAL 9-3 SUATS. L25 DAL vs PHILLY, ROAD 16-9 ATS. L25 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 13-12 ATS. DAL 16-10-1 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 24-43-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 26-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 27-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 7-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV off DD ATS win. PHILLY 5-7 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 31-20 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 32-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 35-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 4-14 ATS L18 before NYG. PHILLY 6-3 ATS L9 after WASH. PHILLY 0-6 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 10-2 ATS in gms 13-16 off div vs div opp off DD SU win. This game is a rematch of when these two teams played @DAL in wk 7 on SNF. DAL crushed PHILLY 37-10 as PHILLY had no answers for the DAL OFF and couldn’t get anything going against the DAL DEF. You might say that there is a little revenge on the minds of PHILLY but DAL is better equipped for this one and PHILLY hasn’t shown any consistency even though they have had a lot of injuries on OFF. The PHILLY secondary is susceptible to a QB that can read their weaknesses and pick them apart. This is a big game for Dak Prescott to show what he is made of and if he can lead this team going forward. He is looking for a big contract after the season and if he does poorly here it will certainly affect his 2020 salary. But if he produces nicely, and moves forward with this team into the playoffs he will be rewarded. I like DAL to win and cover this game as PHILLY just doesn’t have the talent to match with DAL. The DAL DEF will certainly create some turnovers here and take advantage of them. There will be no payback for PHILLY in this game as DAL will capture the NFC EAST. Lay the points here and take DAL.
THE PICK: DAL-2 ½ 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1), (9-5) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (11-3), (8-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (1-5) ATS ARZ+9 ½
LW, ARZ @HOME took it to CLEVE in a big way. ARZ RB Kenyon Drake paid great dividends in this one by rushing 22x for 137yds & 4TDS. ARZ QB Kyler Murray threw 19/25 & 219 yds with 1TD & 1INT. The CLEVE DEF had no answers and ARZ ran away with this game starting in the 4th qtr. ARZ built a lead of 38-17 and CLEVE added a dummy td but the final score was ARZ 38-24. I liked CLEVE in this game because they still had a chance for a push to a wild card spot for the playoffs. But, coming out as lame as they did in this game blew up any chance for them to make the playoffs. It was a nice win for ARZ and it snapped a six game losing streak. LW, @CAR, SEA built a nice comfortable lead (you would think) 30-10 late in the 4th qtr. But CAR came storming back in the last five minutes to add 2TDS to make the final score 30-24. CAR tried a last ditch onside kick after their 2nd TD but SEA recovered it and was able to run out the clock. But it wasn’t in the bag and SEA is playing for position in the NFC playoff picture. I liked SEA-5 ½ in this one because I knew what SEA is playing for but you can’t give the other team hope and let them drive down the field on your prevent defense. Anything can happen in this game and when you think you won, you lost. SEA HC Pete Carroll should know that. SEA WR Josh Gordon who was just starting to fit in nicely with the team was suspended indefinitely by the NFL. L12 ARZ @SEA, ARZ 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS. L19 ARZ vs SEA, SEA 10-7-2 ATS. L13 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 11-1-1 ATS. ARZ 7-6 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. ARZ 45-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 27-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 32-22 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 9-4 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. SEA 34-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 43-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 34-24 ATS vs NFC WEST. SEA 14-17 ATS L31 as a HOME FAV 7>pts. SEA 10-5 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. SEA 8-3 ATS as a div HOME FAV >8pts vs <.500 opp. SEA 2-7 ATS before SF. SEA is a team that wins but, they win ugly. This means that they don’t cover the spread very often. ARZ has nothing to play for but these two teams did meet in wk 4 @ARZ with SEA winning easily 27-10. ARZ has been playing better since then, they haven’t been winning but they have been close and that means they cover the spread. Division rivals always play each other tough no matter what the records say unless they are so bad it becomes just a tune up for the other team. I like SEA to win this game because they are playing for playoff position but, I like ARZ with the points because they will play close and SEA will have to find something extra in the 4th qtr to win. Don’t be surprised if ARZ plays hard because they know they can be a spoiler here. Take ARZ & the points.
THE PICK: ARZ+9 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 22nd, 2019 8:20pm
KC Chiefs (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (7-7), (5-9) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS CHI+5 ½
LW, CHI should have scored that lat TD @GB which would have at least covered but not won. I don’t think they would have gotten the 2pt conversion but the TD was in reach. I liked CHI because GB doesn’t scare anyone. They held GB to 3TDS but started their own comeback a little too late. Anyway, they could certainly play spoiler here for KC as to where their playoff positioning will be going forward. CHI has nothing to play for but to at least get to a winning record. Yes, this season has been a big disappointment for CHI after going 12-4 in 2018 and having a devastating DEF that crushed teams. This year they have given up more and their OFF lost a lot by getting rid of RB Jordan Howard. A lot of questions need to be answered about QB Mitch Trubisky and this game would help him a lot if he could lead CHI to a nice win here. LW, KC @HOME played in a snow filled game vs DEN and won big 23-3. It was a messy game for both teams and DEN could not adjust well to the weather conditions. Their DEF didn’t play well giving up points. I liked DEN+10 because I felt there would be some payback for the shellacking that they took earlier in the season on TNF in DEN from KC. Nothing happened here as DEN was a dud. KC is playing for playoff positioning if nothing else because they have the AFC WEST all wrapped up. L3 CHI vs KC, CHI 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS. ROAD 3-0 ATS. CHI 11-16 ATS as a DOG on SNF. CHI 8-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. CHI 11-12 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. CHI 26-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 36-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 5-8-1 ATS before MINN. CHI 17-9 ATS vs AFC WEST. KC 18-11 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. KC 37-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 32-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 12-6 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 7-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 7-5 ATS on SNF vs opp off a loss. KC 5-3 ATS before LAC. KC 6-1 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins. I like CHI here because they are on the bounceback and KC is coming of a blowout win. There may be a little letdown for KC in that they may not take CHI serious and actually may be looking ahead to their game with LAC in wk 17. KC #5 TOT OFF vs CHI #8 TOT DEF. It is a lot of points to consider for KC on the road but I think CHI will keep it close with their DEF and KC will commit some turnovers. I like a close game here with CHI and a possible upset in the making. Don’t be surprised if CHI wins outright.
THE PICK: CHI+5 ½ 5 STARS
Monday December 23rd, 2019 8:15pm
GB Packers (11-3), (9-5) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (10-4), (7-6-1) ATS, (6-0) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS GB+4 ½
LW, MINN crushed LAC @LAC, 39-10. MINN was actually trailing in the 2nd qtr, 10-9 but, went on to score 30 straight unanswered points. LAC coughed up the ball 7x. LAC QB Philip Rivers threw 3INTS and had a lost fumble which was returned for a td. But MINN made the most of the seven LAC turnovers by turning them into 20 points. MINN has a very big shot at winning the division and getting a better seed for the playoffs. MINN QB Kirk Cousins has been playing well this season and is poised to take MINN deep into the playoffs. This is a must win game for them and they need to win convincingly. These two teams played in wk 2 @GB with GB winning 21-16. In that game MINN had 1st & goal and could not deliver. I liked MINN in that game because I felt it was the right time for MINN to deliver. They fell short and should remember that game going into this one. LW, GB barely beat CHI. Don’t let the 21-13 score kid you because CHI should have scored on that lateral filled last play. On top of that, the GB DEF doesn’t scare anyone and CHI got away from their game plan and had to play hurry up, catchup in the 4th qtr. GB hasn’t really beaten anyone impressive and it will be all on the line for GB in this game. MINN has pressure on them as well to get over that hump. This should definitely be a good game. L12 MINN(H) vs GB, MINN 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS. L25 MINN vs GB, HOME 15-9-1 ATS. MINN 7-2 ATS L9 in 1st of BB HG’s. MINN 32-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 29-35-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 24-25-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 7-5 ATS before CHI. MINN 3-6 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. MINN 9-4 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 9-2 ATS as a HOME FAV >3pts off BB SU wins. MINN 8-4 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 2-7 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 8-6 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. MINN 9-2 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV <8pts or dogs vs div off HOME gm. MINN 1-7 ATS as a FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. GB 7-8 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. GB 16-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 35-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 33-28 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 9-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 12-9 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. GB 8-1-1 ATS after CHI. GB 19-7-1 ATS after a div gm. GB 9-0 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY off div gm vs opp off SU win. GB 20-5 ATS in gms 13-16 off div vs .500>opp. GB DEF has certainly gone down since the beginning of the season. GB #23 TOT DEF w/ #24 RUSH DEF & #22 PASS DEF. MINN should run all day on this team and then use the pass when necessary. Cousins is smart enough to be able to pick this DEF apart and he should stomp GB because this is a moment game for MINN & him. MINN needs to make a statement here and get GB off their back. The only thing stopping MINN is MINN. MINN RB Dalvin Cook left the game against LAC with an injured shoulder but, his status is up in the air for this game. MINN could certainly use him here. The RBs would be down to Ameer Abdullah, Mike Boone & FB CJ Ham. RB Alexander Mattison is dealing with an ankle injury. The DEF for MINN has to play like SF & LAC did vs GB earlier this season. If you give Rodgers time, he will pick you apart. If he is pressured and on the run all game, it will be an easy victory for MINN. Lay the points here as MINN comes out strong, wins and covers.
THE PICK: MINN-4 ½ 5 STARS