2019 NFL WEEK 2
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 2 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Week 1 saw a lot of tight games with teams that thought they had a win, losing out. DET was up 24-6 only to end up in a tie in OT. A big loss for DET but, a big win for ARZ. INDY took LAC to OT because LAC got sloppy when they should have put the game away. WASH was leading 17-0 when PHILLY woke up and won outright but WASH only managed a back door cover. JETS lose in 4th qtr again, what else is new? NYG looked miserable. LAR was sloppy. How bad is MIA? Is NE that good or is PITT that bad?
Thursday September 12th, 2019 8:20pm
TB Bucs (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (0-1), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS TB+6 ½
TB QB Jameis Winston had 3INTS LW vs SF. Two of those INTS were PICK6s. Take away those big mistakes by Winston and TB outplayed SF and probably should have won the game. But Winston is definitely the problem here for TB. Plus, there is no real QB solution for TB waiting in the wings. Blaine Gabbert is out with a dislocated shoulder & then there is Ryan Griffin. He’s a perennial backup that’s been in the league but hasn’t seen any action. The DEF for TB played well and stopped SF from running the ball and kept the SF OFF in check. SF Jimmy G looked human vs TB DEF. Winston’s two big mistakes certainly cost TB the game. Problem is, he hasn’t learned from those mistakes. CAR is coming off a loss @HOME vs LAR. RB Christian McCaffrey had a field day vs LAR with 128 yds rushing & 2TDS & 10 catches for 81 yds. He was a one-man wrecking crew but CAR came up short. CAM had an INT & a costly fumb that led to a LAR score. But CAR made some good special teams plays and kept this game close. The O-LINE for CAR must also do a better job. L11 CAR(H) vs TB, CAR 7-4 SU & 5-6 ATS. L22 CAR vs TB, FAV 12-10 ATS. L13 CAR vs TB, ROAD 9-4 ATS. CAR 6-9 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB HG’s. CAR 16-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CAR 18-24-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CAR 12-17 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. CAR 3-10 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 0-5 ATS L5 on TNF HOME game. CAR 3-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts in 2nd of BB HG’s. CAR 1-7 ATS as a conf FAV >3pts in 2nd of BB HG’s. TB 27-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TB 29-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TB 24-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. TB 1-7-1 ATS on TNF. TB 0-5-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 1-5 ATS on TNF off SU loss. This is a bounceback game for both teams but, CAR is a better team all around. TB HC Bruce Arians is still learning his team as is his assistant coaches. CAR needs to play better and start getting some wins if HC Ron Rivera is going to keep his job. Cam didn’t show any ill effects of his mid foot sprain or recovering right shoulder. CAR OFF needs to spread it around more so as not to be so predictable. CAR DEF needs to stop the run completely by eliminating TB RBs Ronald Jones & Peyton Barber. CAR needs to put it all on Winston’s shoulders and he will crumble. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CAR-6 ½ 5 STARS
2-TEAM TEASER BET: Tease up ARZ+13 ½ to 19 ½ and tease down NE -18 ½ to NE-12 ½ . So the bet is ARZ+19 ½ & NE -12 ½ .
Sunday September 15th, 2019 1:00pm
SF 49ers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS SF+1 ½
LW, SF didn’t really look that good @TB but was the recipient of two big gifts from TB QB Jameis Winston in the form of two PICK6s. Take away those mistakes and TB actually had a chance to win the game. The DEF for TB played well as did the OFF but mistakes are costly. CINNCY played a tight game @SEA as I knew they would. CINNCY needs to get their running game going. CINNCY was able to exploit the SEA secondary because no matter what people say, it is weaker than in past years. This is why I liked CINNCY and they almost pulled out a win outright. They should have won outright but I knew they would cover. Dalton & CINNCY need to hold onto the ball a little more. CINNCY 18-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CINNCY 15-24 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CINNCY 14-11-1 ATS after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 15-3 ATS off a non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 8-1 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 11-2 ATS in gms 1-4 vs NFC opp. SF 7-10 ATS L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 24-30 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SF 22-21 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. SF 4-12-2 ATS L18 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF has basically no reliable RB and it will be all on Jimmy G’s arm to get the job done. Problem is that RB Tevin Coleman suffered a high ankle sprain and will be out multiple weeks & RB Jerick McKinnon is on IR. RBs Raheem Mostert & Matt Breida, who is also questionable for this game, will need to step it up. CINNCY has a bounceback here and SF is coming off a win. CINNCY will be pumped for this game and looking for a HOME win to start the new regime off right. If Dalton spreads the ball around like he did vs SEA, CINNCY will win nicely. Just keep it away from CB Richard Sherman. CINNCY needs to get their running game going as well. Lay the point here.
THE PICK: CINNCY-1 ½ 5 STARS
LA Chargers (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Detroit Lions (0-0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS DET+2 ½
DET is coming off a game that they should have won but came away with a tie but feels like a loss. DET was up 24-6 in the 4th qtr and came away with a 27-27 OT tie. If I’m DET HC Matt Patricia, I would treat this game as a loss because that is what it is. The DET DEF was a total laydown in the 4th qtr. Whether it was play selection or guys not covering & playing or both, they let ARZ get back in the game and steal one away. Up until that, DET was playing a solid game and it looked as though it would be a convincing win. LAC let one get away in their own game. LAC was driving with LAC leading 24-16 which would have put the game away but, Rivers threw an INT in the endzone which INDY turned around and drove the length of the field for a td & the 2point conversion. Instead of being up by 11 or 15, they were now tied. The game went into OT and LAC won with a TD but the ATS was lost. LAC, since 2007 off SU OT win, 1-2 ATS. Don’t fool yourself, without RB Melvin Gordon, this is a different team and QB Philip Rivers has more to do. The DEF let INDY do their thing and INDY RB Marlon Mack rushed for 175 yards. Yeah, that’s not a misprint. LAC 25-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAC 26-25 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 6-2-1 ATS L9 as ROAD FAV. DET 31-20 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 6-11 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. DET 32-30 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. L3 DET vs LAC, LAC 1-2 ATS but HOME 3-0 SUATS. HC Patricia knows a little about Rivers when Patricia was the DC @NE so he knows his tendencies. DET should be right on them and take advantage. Also, the confines of the dome is where QB Matt Stafford & CO feel right at home. DET needs to get their running game going and take pressure off of Stafford. This should be a closer game and DET should feel that they need to get back on the right track. Take the HOME team and the small points.
THE PICK: DET+2 ½ 3 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ GB Packers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS MINN+3
Both of these teams are coming off nice wins. GB had a nice victory on TNF @CHI where it was a combination of a swarming DEF & a CHI OFF that seemed to have been thrown together at the last moment. The CHI OFF couldn’t muster anything except a FG against a revamped GB DEF. MINN on the other hand smothered ATL on both sides of the ball. MINN QB Kirk Cousins only threw 10 passes, but he completed eight of them for 98 yards and 1td. Also, he was only sacked 1x. Luckily he didn’t turn the ball over. RB Dalvin Cook was the star on OFF for MINN. He rushed for 111 yards & 2tds. The DEF for MINN had 2INTS & sacked ATL QB Matt Ryan 4x and caused RB Devonta Freeman to fumble. This all contributed to the 28-12 shallacking of ATL by MINN. GB DEF looked good but CHI QB Mitch Trubisky didn’t look like he matured as a QB. He was still getting nervous and making mistakes that he still needs to overcome if he plans on making a career in the NFL. He looked like he couldn’t read the DEF. These two teams know each other well and Rodgers has been injured 2x by MINN, so you know it’s personal with him. L12 GB(H) vs MINN, GB 7-3-2 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L24 MINN vs GB, HOME 14-9-1 ATS. MINN 24-24-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MINN 27-19 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 20-10-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 1-7 ATS in gms 1-4 off DD SU win vs opp off SUATS win. MINN 2-11 ATS in gms 1-4 as a RD vs opp off div gm. GB 31-26-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 37-36 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. GB 24-18-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in SEPT. GB 6-61 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. GB 7-1-1 ATS L9 after CHI. GB 16-7-1 ATS L24 after a div gm. GB 5-1 ATS after TNF. GB 1-9 ATS in gms 1-4 off SUATS win vs opp off SU FAV win. GB 11-1 ATS as a FAV <8pts off div gm. GB 11-3 ATS w/rest. GB 1-5 ATS off SU DOG win. I really think this game will be very close going down to the wire. It will go a fg either way. MINN RB Dalvin Cook has a lot to prove after having two banged up seasons. He needs to explode against a division rival and the weather should be fine in GB. Kirk Cousins needs to take what the DEF gives him and not try to do too much. MINN needs to get to Rodgers to make him alter his game. Take the points here as it will be a tight game.
THE PICK: MINN+3 3 STARS
Indianapolis Colts (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS INDY+3
LW, I underestimated the tenacious DEF that TENN put on CLEVE combined with mistakes made by CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield. Add on that TENN QB Marcus Mariota played a flawless game (no turnovers) and it ended up being a rout by TENN. TENN has quality players but needs to take that next step and make a playoff run. TENN HC Mike Vrabel is very smart and should have this team poised for a nice run. He has the players believing that they can win. LW, INDY fell short @LAC and needed OT to eventually lose. INDY, since 2007 off SU OT loss 3-3 ATS. INDY was down 24-9 in the 3rd qtr and it looked like the game was over but, LAC QB Philip Rivers threw a crucial INT in the endzone and INDY turned it into a td and a 2point conversion to tie the game instead of LAC going up by 15 points. Big swing created an opportunity for INDY. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett played decent with 2tds and 0turnovers. But RB Marlon Mack was the star with 174 yds rushing on 25 carries &1td. I think LAC took INDY for granted without Andrew Luck and it almost cost them the game in their own stadium. These two teams know each other well. The DEF for INDY is a little suspect giving up the yards and points that they did vs LAC. L12 TENN(H) vs INDY, TENN 3-9 SU but 5-5-1 ATS w/ 1NL. L24 TENN vs INDY, HOME 12-9-2 ATS w/1NL. TENN 32-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TENN 18-18 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. TENN 20-24 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 3-17 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 1-16 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 2-12 ATS after scoring 35>pts. TENN 0-10 ATS before TNF. TENN 1-9 ATS in gms 1-4 as a FAV off SUATS non-div win. INDY 8-5 ATS in 2ndo f BB RG’s, 1 NL. INDY 28-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. INDY 21-22 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. INDY 18-22 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. INDY 19-7 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div gm vs opp off AWAY gm. INDY QB Andrew Luck had a spell over TENN but he is not here anymore and Brisett is still learning to be that guy that INDY can depend on. TENN at HOME is looking for that something extra even though INDY is looking to bounce back. TENN is just the better team here. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: TENN-3 5 STARS
NE Patriots (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS MIA+18 ½
This is an interesting game not because of the teams playing but because of circumstances surrounding these teams. LW, NE destroyed PITT on both sides of the ball 33-3. That was without WR Antonio Brown. NE DEF harassed Big Ben and didn’t let PITT get near the endzone except for a fg. Tom Brady had his way with PITT. What will happen this week with WR Brown in the lineup? If I was Brady, I would be almost giddy. LW, MIA was torched by BALT 59-10. It was 42-10 at halftime and turn your sets off there. In the past Fitzpatrick has been good out of the gate but, not with this bunch. Plus, the fact that they traded OT Laremy Tunsil & WR Kenny Stills to HOU. Also, they traded LB Kiko Alonso to NO. All for draft picks. DE Cameron Wake is gone. Forget about MIA running the ball vs NE, just ask PITT. When interviewed before the PITT game, Brady was raving about the DEF. Well, they made all the plays and kept PITT in check. If you didn’t realize it, MIA is tanking and looking for more draft picks. Brady has so many weapons at his disposal it’s almost like he will be toying with MIA on every play. Plus, Belichick is not one that likes to see big leads shrink. So don’t expect NE to play prevent if they are up by 35. Brady will get everyone involved in this game and the DEF will do the rest. L12 NE @ MIA, NE 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS. L18 NE vs MIA, NE 11-7 ATS. L14 NE vs MIA, HOME 13-1 ATS. NE 25-26 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 27-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NE 19-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NE 8-10-1 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 52-38-4 ATS as a RF since 2004. NE 1-5 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. NE 20-24-1 ATS L45 as a FAV 11>pts. NE 2-6 ATS as a div ROAD FAV >8pts. NE 7-2 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 6-5-1 ATS with 1NL in 2nd of BB HG’s. MIA 22-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 24-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MIA 19-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 3-11-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 8-7-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. MIA 0-6 ATS as a DOG >2pts after allowing 35>pts. NE has almost always had problems with MIA @MIA but, at least there was some talent on this team to contend with. QB Josh Rosen is a bust and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is almost ready to call it a career. NE hasn’t done well ATS laying BIG Spreads but MIA is just so bad that it may be one of those games decided by halftime. Also, in the mix is MIA HC Brian Flores who was the defacto DC in NE LY. Even though he may have been there and knows what’s coming he may not be able to stop it with this bunch. Lay the points here and MIA better hope that WR Antonio Brown doesn’t have 4tds with the record for most yards receiving. The record is 336 yds receiving by LAR WR Flipper Anderson back in 1989.
THE PICK: NE-18 ½ 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NY Giants (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NYG+2
BUFF showed a lot of grit LW when they were down 16-0 in the 3rd qtr @NYJ. But even with the release of RB LeSean McCoy, BUFF found a way to rush for over 100 yds and QB Josh Allen was able to spread the ball around to different receivers. BUFF stayed calm and won the game even when NYJ tried to blitz. HC Sean McDermott couldn’t get a rhythm going in 2018 because of so many injuries but, in 2019 he is hoping that Allen stays healthy. They showed it nicely, winning the game late in the 4th qtr. LW, NYG were outplayed on every level @DAL on SNF. This game was over early and NYG made things worse with some suspect calls by HC Pat Shurmur. NYG RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 120 yds on just 11 carries. So, in a crucial moment with the game still in reach, why give the ball to RB Wayne Gallman or RB Elijaa Penny and get nowhere? WR Sterling Shepard is in concussion protocol. He may be out for this game. WR Darius Slayton is also questionable for this game with a hamstring issue. TE Evan Engram & WR Bennie Fowler would be the top receivers this week if Shepard is out. The NYG DEF was shredded by DAL and didn’t even sack DAL QB Dak Prescott 1x. At times DAL receivers looked wide open. BUFF 9-4 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s. BUFF 26-21 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BUFF 28-20 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 3-7 ATS L10 after NYJ. BUFF 5-7 ATS AWAY after SU DOG win. BUFF 4-8 ATS L1 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 1-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 vs <.500 opp off SU div loss. BUFF 11-0 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU win vs winless opp. BUFF 1-7 ATS L8 as ROAD FAV. NYG 19-34 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYG 28-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS L7 HOME openers. NYG 2-7 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 2-11 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 0-5 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 7-8 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. For BUFF, they need to stop RB Saquon Barkley & TE Evan Engram. Let the nobodies step up and beat BUFF. But on OFF, Josh Allen needs to take what the DEF gives him like he did with NYJ. For NYG, it’s all about calling the right plays but, Shurmur is not so good at doing that. NYG can’t win games if you can’t get put pressure on the QB and can’t cover receivers. Lay the two points as BUFF sweeps in the Meadowlands.
THE PICK: BUFF-2 5 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS SEA+4 ½
LW, PITT looked pretty bad @NE on SNF. Or was it that NE was just that good? Big Ben was only sacked 1x but, it seemed like he was pressured all game by the NE DEF. Plus, PITT rushed for a paltry 32 yds. It could be maybe, because they played catchup the whole game after being down at the half, 20-0. The PITT DEF is overrated as is the secondary and with a guy like Russell Wilson who is more mobile than Tom Brady, PITT DEF will have their hands full. PITT DEF sacked Tom Brady 1x. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has become the #1 receiver in PITT but after that it’s anyone’s guess. They face an aggressive SEA DEF this week. LW, SEA escaped with a SU win. I liked CINNCY +9 ½ because that game was going to be a battle and I felt that it would go down to the wire. No way was I thinking blowout by either team. CINNCY had their chances at the end to win outright but they unfortunately faltered. SEA DEF did sack Andy Dalton 5x with one sack going to newly acquired DE Jadeveon Clowney. But the SEA DEF is weaker in the secondary. No more “Legion of Boom” and the guys that are there now are not as talented. However, Big Ben will get plenty of pressure from the guys on the D-LINE & LB crew. SEA 23-26-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SEA 20-26-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. SEA 1-7-2 ATS as a non conf ROAD DOG <5pts. SEA 1-5 SU & 1-3-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. SEA 0-9-1 ATS as a non conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. SEA 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non div opp off DD SU loss. PITT 17-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 22-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PITT 14-5 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 13-4 ATS as a FAV after allowing 28>pts. PITT(H) vs NFC WEST, 6-0 SUATS. PITT has underling problems that are not being addressed. The secondary is not that good and there are no replacements for Bell & Brown no matter what HC Mike Tomlin has said. He should be nervous. Wilson should be able to exploit the PITT weaknesses in the DEF because he is very good at picking that up. As long as SEA DEF pressures Big Ben, SEA will have the win here. Take the points here as SEA has a chance to win this game outright as PITT is in a heap of trouble. This will be a nail biter to the end but I like the points.
THE PICK: SEA+4 ½ 5 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Washington Redskins (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS WASH+5
Did WASH HC Jay Gruden have money on the game against WASH vs PHILLY? First, RB Adrian Peterson is a healthy scratch. The certainly could have used him. Second, WASH was up 17-0 on PHILLY and then all of a sudden WASH couldn’t make a play. WASH ended up losing but, getting a back door cover, barely. WASH managed 28 yds rushing & RB Derrius Guice got hurt. He is out with a meniscus injury and his timetabkle for return is unknown. Peterson is expected to play vs DAL but we all know that he is one dimensional. WASH QB Case Keenum had a pretty good game throwing for 380 yds, 3TDS & 0INTS. But the DEF couldn’t seem to stop the PHILLY OFF when it woke up. Hence the final score, PHILLY 32-27. On SUN afternoon, DAL manhandled NYG on both sides of the ball. It wasn’t even as close as the final score suggests 35-17. It was 35-10 in the 3rd qtr and turn your sets off there. DAL DEF kept NYG in check. NYG may have had stats which were really garbage time because NYG didn’t get into the endzone and scored a late td that didn’t matter to anyone. DAL DEF pressured Eli Manning all game. RB Ezekial Elliott, fresh off his new contract was effective just enough and had the NYG DEF always keeping an eye on him. That gave Dak Prescott enough time to find an open receiver. He passed for over 400 yds and had 4TDS, 0INTS & 0fumbles. L12 DAL @WASH, DAL 8-4 SU & 6-6 ATS. L10 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 7-3 ATS. L20 DAL vs WASH, DOG 13-7 ATS. DAL 32-18 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DAL 27-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 26-19 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. DAL 7-3-1 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 1-7 ATS L8 after NYG. WASH 6-6 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH 19-32 ATS @HOME in SEPT. WASH 9-6 ATS as HOME DOG. WASH 26-23 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 20-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. WASH 2-8 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 8-3 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs div opp. DAL is a stocked team but they have to stay balanced in their attack on OFF. The DEF needs to do their job and not let WASH think they have a shot. WASH has good players but the DEF was shredded LW when PHILLY woke up. DAL hasn’t been a catchup team and Ezekial Elliott has had some good games vs WASH. This is always a battle but DAL should prevail with a win by a td. WASH needs to find a way to stay relevant.
THE PICK: DAL-5 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS ARZ+13 ½
LW, you have to give a lot of credit to ARZ QB Kyler Murray. ARZ was down 24-6 in the 4th qtr @HOME vs DET and you would probably think that the game was over. Well, DET thought it was over and they let ARZ come all the way back and tie the score with a fg, 2tds and a 2-point conversion, all in the 4th qtr. In OT, the two teams exchanged fgs and the final score was 27-27. For ARZ it was a victory and it showed that Kyler Murray had grit. He was even sacked 5x but, didn’t give up. RB David Johnson showed that he is back to form with 82 yds rushing & 6 catches for 55 yds & 1td. The ARZ DEF held in the 4th qtr as they stopped DET from getting the one score they needed that would have put the game out of reach. LW, BALT destroyed MIA on both sides of the ball to win 59-10. It was 28-0 in the 2nd qtr and 42-10 at halftime. Turn your sets off. BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw 5tds with 0INTS and even Robert Griffin came in and threw a td in the mix. MIA is just so inept, however BALT is not going to keep up that scoring pace. BALT rushed for 265 yds & 2tds and put up 645 total yards as compared to MIA’s 200 yards. Will they do it again? Also RB Mark Ingram has become the new powerhouse for BALT rushing 14x for 107 yds & 2tds. Alas, against MIA. ARZ is better defensively and knows that they need to keep it close. L3 BALT vs ARZ, ARZ 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS incl ARZ @BALT, ARZ 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. ARZ 38-31-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ARZ 30-28 AT AWAY in SEPT. ARZ 16-2-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 2-9 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div opp. BALT 32-17 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 34-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 5-10-1 ATS L16 vs NFC. BALT 6-17-1 ATS L24 @HOME off non-div gm. ARZ needs to use the clock more on drive and not be intimidated by the BALT DEF. Usually after a blowout, there is a little letdown of scoring and the spread here is just too big to ignore. Plus, could BALT be thinking of their game @KC next week? Take the points here as ARZ keep it close unless they get turnoveridous.
THE PICK: ARZ+13 ½ 5 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (0-1), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS JAGS+9
On MNF, HOU should have won that game @NO. I liked HOU+7 because I felt the DEF for HOU would be able to keep Brees & CO in check. For the most part they did. I like Deshaun Watson but HC Bill O’Brian is not someone I like as a HC. He’s a bonehead and at the end of the game when it should have been over, NO caught a short pass which set up the winning fg with :00 on the clock. It was his call. O’Brien is a terrible coach and I have always said that HOU will go nowhere with him at the helm. He is 1-3 in the playoffs in six seasons with HOU, pathetic. Anyway, Watson played a great game and so did the HOU DEF without DE Jadeveon Clowney, and were able to stop NO when it counted, except at the end. LW, I liked JAGS w/QB Nick Foles. Unfortunately, Foles is out with a clavicle break in his shoulder and will be out a while. Gardner Minshew came in did a decent job but not enough to win. He was 22-25 275 yards, 2tds 1INT. In the end, Patrick Mahomes & CO were just too tough and it became a rout. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette needs to either step it up or step aside. The DEF for JAGS needs to make plays. Did the JAGS fool everyone two years ago? L12 HOU(H) vs JAGS, HOU 9-3 SU but 6-6 ATS. L14 HOU vs JAGS, ROAD 10-4 ATS. HOU 13-10 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 9-7 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. HOU 14-14 ATS @HOME in SEPT. HOU 10-6 ATS as a HF 4>pts. JAGS 25-27 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. JAGS 17-15 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. JAGS 18-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU DE JJ Watt is having a tougher time without Clowney but is still dangerous. The JAG O-LINE must do their job. HOU can be a better team without HC Bill O’Brien. These two teams always play each other tough even when one team is on the upside and the other is on the downside. The stats say so. They play tough because of the division rivalry and it will be no exception here. Even though HOU is on a bounceback week, so are the JAGS. The points are too big to ignore and the score will be closer than the spread. Take the points here as JAGS will not just lay down.
THE PICK: JAGS+9 5 STARS
Sunday September 15th, 2019 4:00pm
KC Chiefs (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS OAK+7
LW, KC steamrolled over @JAGS. It was close until JAGS QB Nick Foles was knocked out of the game. The KC just took over. Newly acquired KC RB LeSean McCoy got into the act as well. QB Pat Mahomes was his usual great self with no turnovers and in complete control of the game. WR Tyreek Hill sustained a shoulder injury and left early. He sustained a dislocation of the sternal clavicular joint and will be out 4-6 weeks. KC WR Sammy Watkins had a great game with 198 yds & 3tds. The DEF had 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery. On MNF(2) OAK @HOME came out strong vs DEN. DEN came out lame and didn’t even sack QB Derek Carr 1x. Derek Carr played well completing 22 of 26 passes for 259 yds, 1td 0INTS & 0fumbles. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs rushed 23x for 85 yds & 2TDS. The OAK DEF sacked Joe Flacco 3x. If you were watching this game you would have thought DEN was all rookies because, that’s how they played. OAK was up 14-0 at the half before DEN knew there was a game on. Anyway, OAK won 24-16 as DEN played catchup. Anyway, that won’t happen with KC this week. L12 KC @OAK, KC 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS. L24 KC vs OAK, ROAD 14-10 SU & 16-8 ATS. L24 KC vs OAK, DOG 13-9 ATS, 2 PICK’EM. KC 7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 36-20 ATS AWAY in SEPT. KC 32-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 25-14 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. KC 1-6 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SUATS win. KC 6-1 ATS vs div opp w/re off SUATS win. OAK 3-6-1 ATS , 1NL in 2nd of BB HG’s. OAK 24-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. OAK 13-23 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. OAK 32-28 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. OAK 6-9-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. OAK 1-5 ATS after MNF. OAK 1-6 ATS after DEN. OAK was pumped on MNF because of all the talk that they were nothing without WR Antonio Brown and they were a bunch of nobodies, etc. Well, DEN will certainly know who they are. But KC already knows who they are and their OFF almost scores at will. This week the KC express rolls into OAK and send OAK back down to Earth. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: KC-7 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Denver Broncos (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS DEN+2 ½
Both of these teams were huge disappointments in wk 1 and they are both coming off a loss. CHI came out lame on TNF @HOME vs GB. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky looked like a dear in the headlights at many times during the game. He looked confused and inaccurate in his passes. Also, he did not read the GB DEF correctly and adjust. The CHI OFF certainly misses RB Jordan Howard who was very successful in the 1-2 punch with RB Tarik Cohen. Cohen does so many things on this team that, at times he looked out of gas. The CHI OFF managed a measly 46 yds rushing. Yes, the CHI DEF only gave up 47 yds rushing but, you can’t win games if you don’t score points. The DEF did its job with 5 sacks of Rodgers but no turnovers. But the CHI OFF looked lost and manages only 3 points. On MNF, DEN came out lame and spotted OAK a 14-0 halftime lead. This is how DEN plays against a team full of nobodies? They made OAK look like world beaters and newly acquired QB Joe Flacco reverted back to the Average Joe that he was in BALT. DEN needs to get RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay more involved to take some of the pressure off of Flacco. DEN DEF didn’t even sack OAK QB Derek Carr 1x. He looked like he had plenty of time to sit back and dissect the DEN DEF and put the ball where he wanted it. Carr put it in the hands of seven different receivers en route to an easy win. DEN 8-3 ATS L11 as a HOME DOG. DEN 29-23-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DEN 17-12 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 5-7 ATS as a non conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 10-1 ATS as HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 10-1 ATS as a non-div HD off div gm. CHI 16-25 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CHI 20-30 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 10-3 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. CHI 10-4 ATS L14 non-conf RG’s. CHI 2-5 ATS L7 after TNF. CHI 3-7 ATS before MNF. The CHI OFF is still a work in progress because of RB Jordan Howard missing. He was a big part of it and it shows. The DEN DEF has to step up and take charge. Here they can take advantage of an inexperienced QB by changing the DEF schemes that they throw at Trubisky. Also, here is another tidbit to consider. DEN HC Vic Fangio was the CHI DC in 2018, so he knows Trubisky’s strengths & weaknesses inside and out. He should be able to predict how Trubisky and the CHI OFF calls its plays. I like the HOME DOG here because the DEN OFF will do better than the CHI OFF and they are getting points. However, this still could be a close game either way and the extra points will help.
THE PICK: DEN+2 ½ 3 STARS
NO Saints (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ LA Rams (1-0), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NO+2 ½
On MNF, NO escaped with their lives. HOU should have came away with a win but HOU HC Bill O’Brien, who I am no fan of, decided to play loose coverage of the NO receivers on the last play instead of tight coverage. Hence, NO caught a short pass which set up the winning fg with :00 on the clock. HOU DEF was tisht and NO DEF had no answers for HOU QB Deshaun Watson. NO was playing catchup with HOU as HOU was shutting down the mighty NO OFF. Also, the NO DEF was being taken apart by HOU QB Deshaun Watson. However, NO came away with victory. LW @CAR, the game was never in doubt for LAR as they took a 13-0 lead but they let it get interesting late in the game by not sealing the deal. By playing carelessly, they let CAR block a punt and turn around with a quick score. LAR played like they let CAR back into it but, CAR couldn’t recover the onside kick at the end. This week vs NO, I can assure you that this will not happen. LAR needs to put pressure on Drew Brees like they did vs Cam Newton. In the NFC Champioship game CB Aqib Talib covered WR Michael Thomas, this was a good plan and worked. NO will be expecting the same game plan for LAR but HC Sean McVay will tweak it just enough so that Brees doesn’t always know what’s coming. L10 LAR vs NO, LAR 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS incl 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS. LAR 17-17 ATS L34 as a HOME FAV. LAR 7-1 ATS L8 as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 6-0 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. NO 5-5 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NO 26-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NO 23-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 0-5 ATS AWAY off SU win on MNF. NO 8-7 ATS L15 after MNF. NO 5-6 ATS L11 vs NFC WEST. NO 13-7 ATS L20 as a ROAD DOG. This should be another good game but NO HC Sean Payton knows that there is pressure on him to do well. LAR @HOME is tough and the DEF will be looking to put pressure on Brees. LAR needs to stop RB Alvin Kamara anyway they can. LAR needs to open up the OFF and come out with surprises. I like laying less than a fg because that’s what this game may come down to.
THE PICK: LAR-2 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday September 15th, 2019 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (1-0), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS ATL+1 ½
LW, PHILLY spotted WASH a 17-0 lead than decided to get busy. PHILLY has a lot of OFF weapons at their disposal. WR DeSean Jackson looked pretty good in his first game back with PHILLY. For PHILLY fans, hopefully he will continue to do well. RB Jordan Howard fit in nicely as did RB Darren Sproles whose had 2 recently injury plagued seasons. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz spread the ball around nicely which kept the WASH DEF on its toes. PHILLY DEF was able to stifle the WASH OFF so that they could not put the game out of reach. PHILLY ended up winning 32-27 but did not cover the -9 ½ pts due to a garbage time td that did not affect the win/lose, only the ATS. ATL had a disastrous game @MINN. They couldn’t do anything right. ATL QB Matt Ryan was sacked 4x & had 2INTS. RB Devonta Freeman mustered 8 carries for 19 yds. The DEF for ATL is a major problem. They let MINN Dalvin Cook rush for over 100 yds and MINN combined rushed for 172 yds. Matt Ryan rushed for 24yds and ATL couldn’t rush at all. MINN QB Kirk Cousins threw only 10 passes, completing eight but got a big win. ATL DEF will have their hands full against Carson Wentz & CO. L10 PHILLY vs ATL, PHILLY 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS but HOME is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS. PHILLY 20-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PHILLY 28-37 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PHILLY 7-2 ATS AWAY on MNF. PHILLY 4-4 ATS as a RF on MNF. PHILLY 12-2 ATS on MNF off SU win. PHILLY 5-1 ATS on MNF vs opp off DD SU loss. PHILLY 6-2 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 5-9 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 4-0 ATS L4 as a HOME DOG. ATL 27-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 30-29 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. Matt Ryan 10-1 ATS in HOME Openers. ATL 2-5 ATS as HOME DOG on MNF. ATL 7-2 ATS in gms 1-4 @HOME vs NFC opp. PHILLY is a better well rounded team than ATL and that is why the spread is so low. This game could go either way and should not get to blowout proportions unless PHILLY gets sloppy. ATL has a DEF that is suspect but PHILLY DEF has to make plays and put pressure on Matt Ryan. Ryan can eat you up if he is allowed to sit back in the pocket. If he has time, he can pick a DEF apart. LW, MINN didn’t let him do that and PHILLY needs to do the same. This will be a good game but PHILLY should come out on top. This game could go either way but I like PHILLY to win.
THE PICK: PHILLY-1 ½ 3 STARS
Monday September 16th, 2019 8:15pm
Cleveland Browns (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ NY Jets (0-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NYJ+6
LW, all the hype & hoopla couldn’t help CLEVE in its game @HOME vs TENN. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield threw 3INTS in the 4th qtr which put the game in the hands of TENN. TENN was up 15-13 in the 3rd qtr and CLEVE then self-destructed. CLEVE played an average to worse game than expected. The CLEVE DEF gave up yards rushing & receiving when it hurt most, the 4th qtr. Mayfield did spread the ball around which is good and bad for the upcoming NYJ. NYJ were up 16-0 in the 3rd qtr and then played dead and lost 17-16. Same ole JETS as another 4th qtr lead vanishes and turns into a loss. HC Adam Gase better get used to it with this bunch. NYJ LB CJ Mosley had a PICK6 and was all over the field but had to leave the game due to an injured groin and is questionable for this game. That is a big loss. Also, BUFF QB Josh Allen was able to take advantage of a weak NYJ secondary. BUFF was able to sack NYJ QB Sam Darnold 4x. L9 CLEVE vs NYJ, NYJ 6-3 SU but 4-3-2 ATS. CLEVE 4-9 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEV 5-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU loss. CLEVE 6-6 ATS AWAY aft scoring 13<pts. CLEVE 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SU FAV loss. CLEVE 5-0 ATS as a RF >1pt off SU loss. CLEVE 0-4 ATS on MNF off DD SU loss. NYJ 7-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NYJ 20-31 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYJ 27-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYJ 4-8 ATS L12 off a SU FAV loss. NYJ 1-9 ATS L10 after BUFF. NYJ 7-1 ATS as a HD vs non-div opp w/revenge. NYJ 3-12 ATS off SU DIV loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 8-3 ATS as a HD on MNF. NYJ 6-1 ATS on MNF off SU FAV loss. NYJ 0-9 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. NYJ 0-9 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div conf opp. NYJ QB Sam Darnold didn’t have any turnovers but he wasn’t especially great. He needs to do better at game managing. However, he will be out of this game with mononucleosis. Trevor Siemian will be the starter at QB. RB Le’Veon Bell’s 1st game back was average. He rushed for 60 yards on 17 carries. He did catch six passes for 32 yards and 1td. For NYJ to win, Bell needs to have more touches because there really isn’t any other reliable RB on the depth chart behind Bell. CLEVE cannot go down 0-2 in a division that is very tough. NYJ DC Greg Williams was passed up for CLEVE HC and may have a bone to pick but, NYJ doesn’t have the personnel if CLEVE OFF is running on all cylinders. If Mosley is out, NYJ DEF will definitely be at a disadvantage. In a rare move, NE traded WR Demaryius Thomas to NYJ for a draft pick. He is coming off a hamstring injury and did not play vs PITT. Could he help NYJ? Lay the points here because this is bounceback for CLEVE and NYJ will show how bad HC Adam Gase really is.
THE PICK: CLEVE-6 5 STARS