2019 NFL WEEK 3
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 3 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
This week there are two games which have college spreads together in the same weekend. You may see a college spread once in a season but 2x in the same week! Terrible teams with nothing to lose. There are some interesting games happening this week that could start to shape some of the divisions going forward. Keep an eye out for NO, PITT, BALT, SF, LAC & INDY.
Thursday September 18th, 2019 8:20pm
Tennessee Titans (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS JAGS+2
TENN is coming off a game where they should have won. INDY has been playing with a new life and new inspiration with QB Jacoby Brissett. He is stepping up to the challenge and played better than Mariota. TENN is a team that you can’t figure out from one week to the next. Just when you think they should win, they lose. You certainly would have thought @HOME vs INDY after severely beating CLEVE @CLEVE the week before. LW, I like JAGS+9 @HOU. JAGS always play HOU tough no matter how good or how bad they are. Plus, JAGS HC Doug Marrone decided to go for 2pts instead of the tying extra point and send it into OT. Well, JAGS didn’t get it and lost. JAGS are also desperate here and can’t fall 0-3. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew is learning this game and must hold onto the ball a little better. He had 3 fumbles with one of them being lost. He doesn’t have that many skilled receivers around him and that could be a problem. They need to get open for this guy. WR Marqise Lee needs to be big in this game even though he is coming off a knee injury. L12 JAGS (H) vs TENN, JAGS 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS. L20 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 11-9 ATS. L24 JAGS vs TENN, DOGS 12-12 ATS. JAGS 20-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. JAGS 26-27 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. JAGS 18-15 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. JAGS 17-30 ATS L47 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 9-9 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 1-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. JAGS 4-4 ATS @HOME on TNF. JAGS 2-12 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB div gms off SU loss. TENN 4-11 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. TENN 28-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 18-19 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. TENN 20-25 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 9-6 ATS on TNF. TENN 8-1 ATS as a FAV on TNF. TENN 3-6 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. This game could go either way but JAGS are more desperate for a win then TENN. TENN has always been known to start out slow. JAGS QB Minshew should have a better game than he did vs HOU and he has the HOME field here. Both teams are coming off a loss and looking at a bounceback but JAGS can’t go down 0-3. Look for RB Leonard Fournette to get going or he might just be going somewhere else. Take the two points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+2 3 STARS
TWO TEAM TEASER BET: Tease down MIA+21 to MIA+15 & NYJ+22 ½ to NYJ+16 ½ and take both NE & DAL. DAL HC Garrett knows he’s on the hotseat and has to keep going strong but, NE is just too tough on both sides of the ball & vs a 3rd string QB in Luke Falk it should be like taking candy from a baby.
Sunday September 22nd, 2019 1:00pm
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CINNCY+6
LW, CINNCY was blown out @HOME by SF. Is SF really that good or is CINNCY really that bad? CINNCY QB Andy Dalton was sacked 4x and the running game which never got started amounted to 25yds. Yes, CINNCY receivers had nice stats but it was all in catchup and garbage time. The DEF for CINNCY was terrible and didn’t even sack SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo 1x. SF ran all over CINNCY for 259 yds & 2tds. It was very bad for CINNCY. LW, BUFF took care of NYG like I knew they would. It wasn’t that BUFF is so good, it’s that NYG is just very bad. BUFF QB Josh Allen was sacked 3x. But the BUFF DEF only sacked NYG QB Eli Manning 1x & Manning threw 2INTS. Plus, some of his starting WRs were out. The only star for NYG was RB Saquon Barkley. L9 CINNCY vs BUFF, CINNCY 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS. CINNCY 5-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CINNCY 20-23 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CINNCY 27-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CINNCY 7-4 ATS L11 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-9 ATS L10 AWAY vs AFC EAST. CINNCY 1-10 ATS vs >.600 opp. CINNCY 2-7 ATS AWAY vs >.600 opp. CINNCY 3-2-1 ATS as a DOG in 1st of BB RG’s. BUFF 6-6-1 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. BUFF 29-20 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 34-23 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BUFF 2-10 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. BUFF 7-5 ATS & 1NL before NE. BUFF 11-0 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU Win vs winless opp. BUFF has beaten two bad NY teams and not as convincingly as everyone thinks. CINNCY has some life to them and their OFF can do big things. In the first game of the season CINNCY was toe-to-toe with SEA, only to lose by a point. I see this game being closer than the spread and I like the points here as CINNCY knows, they cannot go down 0-3 in the season. The CINNCY DEF must make some stops. Take the points here as there is a possibility that CINNCY wins outright. But, this game will be a dogfight and it will be closer than the spread.
THE PICK: CINNCY+6 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS MIA+21
LW, MIA was down 13-0 at the half @HOME to NE. That was a big tease for MIA fans that thought they had a chance vs NE. They didn’t and MIA lost 43-0. MIA threw 4INTS with including 2PICK6s. Their total yards amounted to drives that went nowhere in garbage time. NE just toyed with MIA. Then, DB Mincah Fitzpatrick was traded to PITT for draft picks. This team is tanking in the worst way. Now they face a hungry DAL team. DAL spotted WASH a 7-0 lead then turned on the juice taking a 21-7 lead and finishing 31-21. WASH scored a late td but it was garbage time. Well, this week, DAL has to turn it up a notch. They should score at least 30 and the DEF has to be solid, no ifs ands or buts. DAL RB Ezekial Elliott had a nice game vs WASH and is showing that he didn’t need training camp. This week he’ll be tired from running for tds (hopefully). QB Dak Prescott has to be solid in this game because that is what is expected against a very bad team. MIA has given up 102 pts in the first two games. I would like to see DAL take it to the bank this week. Not because of who I am picking in this game but, DAL HC Jason Garrett has to show that he can get this team deep into the playoffs and you have to beat the bad teams. L3 DAL vs MIA, DAL 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. DAL 22-27 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DAL 28-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 20-5-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 8-1 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. MIA 26-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MIA 24-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MIA 0-6 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. MIA 1-10-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 16-9 ATS L25 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 3-12-1 ATS L16 after allowing 35>pts. MIA 1-8 ATS after NE. MIA 12-4 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 0-7 ATS as a DOG >7pts after allowing 35> pts. MIA is in a jam and this spread is like a college football game. Right now, I don’t think MIA could beat Clemson. DAL has to score a lot here and make sure that no one gets injured. This should be like a scrimmage for DAL. I feel bad for MIA HC Brain Flores because MIA is just not losing, they are losing bad. Lay the points here because DAL should win big at home.
THE PICK: DAL-21 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ GB Packers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DEN+8
LW, DEN had a nice late game drive to take the lead @HOME vs CHI. However, on the ensuing CHI drive, there was a bogus roughing the passer call which gave CHI an extra 15 yards with which to work with. Hence they kicked a fg with :00 time on the clock and won the game 16-14. DEN has a pretty good team on paper but for some reason they are not getting the job done. DEN QB Joe Flacco has to play like the old Flacco and not Average Joe. DEN RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay are a nice 1-2 punch but the O-LINE for DEN has to do a better job. GB can be run on as MINN RB Dalvin Cook rushed for over 150 yds LW @GB. GB stormed out to a 21-0 lead and then sort of coasted along. Had MINN called better plays, GB probably would have lost. Anyway, GB is out to a nice start and GB RB Aaron Jones also had a nice game vs MINN, rushing for 116 yds & 1td. The GB DEF made some stops but MINN QB Kirk Cousins had 2INTs & 1 fumble that cost MINN the game. L3 DEN vs GB, GB 2-1 SUATS. DEN 28-20 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DEN 18-12 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 6-7 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 1-6 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. GB 7-4-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. GB 32-26-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 38-36 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. GB 12-16 ATS L28 vs AFC. GB 17-7-1 ATS L25 after div gm. GB 14-3 ATS L17 as a FAV after div gm. GB 0-4 ATS L4 after MINN. DEN is in a desperate situation and HC Vic Fangio knows that he cannot fall to 0-3. DEN DEF has to step up and put pressure on Rodgers. Fangio is a DEF guy so this is the game to show what he’s got. Yes GB is playing well and they will probably win this game but I don’t see blowout here. DEN has to play smart and they will keep it close. Take the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+8 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS ATL+1 ½
On SNF, ATL got away with one. PHILLY WR Nelson Agholar was wide open and running but dropped a td pass that would have won the game for PHILLY. ATL DEF is terrible. One other reason ATL won was because PHILLY WRs DeSean Jackson & Alshon Jeffery were both knocked out of the game early and Wentz had less to work with. ATL DEF is terrible, did I say that already? LOL. DE/LB Vic Beasley made a cameo with a sack of PHILLY QB Carson Wentz. This guy has been invisible since 2016. ATL QB Matt Ryan had 3INTS but still put the ball up 43x. For ATL to get a convincing win, they must utilize the run game. They have to get RBs Devonta Freeman & Ito Smith more heavily involved. Otherwise their OFF will become predictable and opposing DEF can just tee off. LW, INDY had a nice comeback win @TENN. INDY was down in that game but managed to have a nice drive where they scored a td and held TENN the rest of the game. RB Marlon Mack is certainly coming into his own and is also taking a lot of pressure off of QB Jacoby Brissett. What has happened to K Adam Vinatieri? In two games he has missed 3 extra points & 2fgs. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett is certainly playing better than he was 2years ago when he first came to INDY. The DEF for INDY is getting there but they need to make more stops. They will certainly have their hands full as Matt Ryan tries to dissect them this Sunday. Ryan has already been sacked 5x to the O-LINE is not doing a great job. ATL 30-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. ATL 30-29 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ATL 9-3 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 8-0 ATS as a DOG off SU DOG win. ATL 9-1 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. INDY 6-2-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. INDY 22-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. INDY 28-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. INDY 8-7-1 ATS L16 as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 1-6 ATS L7 after TENN. The only reason I like ATL here is because Matt Ryan has more weapons to choose from then Jacoby Brissett does. This game could be a shootout because both teams have the ability to score. ATL HC Dan Quinn needs to get his team moving in the right direction now that NO is uncertain. This is a game they need to win.
THE PICK: ATL+1 ½ 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ KC Chiefs (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS BALT+6 ½
LW, BALT was a heavy FAV @HOME vs ARZ. I liked ARZ +13 ½ because ARZ is hungry and BALT was scoring 59 or anything close to what they did wk 1 vs MIA. BALT is a good team and never put the game away vs ARZ but did come away with a win but, no cover. They did enough to win. LW, KC spotted OAK a 10-0 lead then went out and scored 28 points in the 2nd qtr and just played ball possession and DEF in the 2nd half. This game looked like it would be a massive blowout at halftime but KC got a little sloppy in the 2nd half on OFF & didn’t score any more points. Luckily, the DEF did their job and didn’t let OAK get back into the game. These two teams played last season @KC and BALT had the game won only to let KC snatch victory at the end with a 4th qtr, 4th down miracle. Don’t think for one moment, that BALT & HC John Harbaugh have forgotten about that game. I’m sure that he is showing clips of the game to the team. KC has an explosive OFF but RB LeSean McCoy is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. KC had only 31 yds rushing vs OAK LW, not good. How many will they have vs a better BALT DEF? Plus, OAK rushed for almost 130 yds vs a KC DEF that has been known to go to sleep. L6 KC vs BALT, 3-3 SUATS, however, ROAD 4-2 ATS. BALT 25-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BALT 22-17 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. BALT 2-9 ATS as a non-div DOG 6>pts. BALT 15-3 ATS in gms 1-4 as a RD vs opp off AWAY gm. BALT 6-0 ATS L6 before CLEVE. BALT 0-8 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. KC 27-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. KC 33-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 11-2 ATS @HOME vs .666>non-div opp. KC 3-10 ATS after OAK. BALT should be able to run all day vs KC because KC is notoriously bad vs the run. BALT QB Lamar Jackson should just take what the KC DEF gives him and not force anything because that is how they will beat KC. The BALT DEF needs to put pressure on KC QB Pat Mahomes so he can’t have the options that he has vs other teams. This game will be decided by three points and I like BALT getting almost a td here.
THE PICK: BALT+6 ½ 5 STARS
Oakland Raiders (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS OAK+9
I like MINN HC Mike Zimmer. But unfortunately, he will never win with QB Kirk Cousins. LW, @GB, MINN is trailing 21-16 in the 4th qtr with about 7 minutes to go. MINN has put a nice drive together, effectively running the ball. They have 1st & goal from the 10 yd line. What does Cousins do? He roles out to his right and throws a desperation pass that had absolutely no chance of being caught by a MINN receiver and it was intercepted in the endzone. Cousins walked off the field and looked as though he wasn’t even bothered by it. What does he care? He has $84 million guaranteed. He blew the drive that would have won it for MINN. He’s an average QB with a hefty price tag. RB Dalvin Cook had another great game but all for nothing because of Cousins. Then, when MINN got the ball back with enough time for another drive, more bad decisions and passes by Cousins. GB won 21-16. LW, OAK started the game out strong vs KC with a 10-0 lead. But KC went on to score 28 points in the 2nd qtr and win 28-10. OAK HC Jon Gruden is coaching a bunch of nobodies that don’t know they’re supposed to lose. They weren’t beating KC no matter what but they could have made it closer. OAK 7-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. OAK 29-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. OAK 32-29 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. OAK 5-10-2 ATS L17 after KC. OAK 10-3-1 ATS L14 off SU DIV loss. OAK 7-0 ATS off SU div HOME loss. MINN 32-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MINN 27-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. MINN 6-5 ATS before CHI. MINN 9-3 ATS after GB. I like OAK here with the points because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. OAK QB Derek Carr has a big chance here to raise his stock with nothing to lose. MINN is the one that is under pressure and if OAK watches the film on the game vs GB, they will see that the way to beat MINN is just push Cousins out of the pocket or put a little pressure on him and he will make plenty of mistakes. On that INT I mentioned, he wasn’t even touched, it was all him. Take the points here because this game has upset written all over it. If not, MINN will win by a fg and act like they just won the SuperBowl.
THE PICK: OAK+9 5 STARS
NY Jets (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS NYJ+22 ½
This is not a misprint. Yes that is the spread. It is almost like a college spread. On MNF, NYJ lost any notion of being competitive for some time when their 2nd string QB Trevor Siemian went down with a leg injury. NYJ 3rd string QB Luke Falk came in and tried to rally the troops but other guys just let him down. He had some nice passes and tried to drive the team but, in the end it was a blowout. NYJ RB Le’Veon Bell had a nice run but fumbled away the ball that could have made the score a little closer. He looked visibly upset after the play. LW, NE took care of business @MIA. MIA doesn’t have anyone to watch at this point and NE is just too tough on both sides of the ball. But for a while NE wasn’t turning on the power button and it was only 13-0 at halftime. That’s not good when you give the other team hope. MIA probably went in at the half thinking that they had a chance in the 2nd half. Brady knows that you can’t do that. Brady has always hated NYJ and its time to get everyone on the team involved. NYJ scored a lousy 3pts @HOME vs CLEVE, how many will they score @NE? L12 NE(H) vs NYJ, NE 11-1 SU but, 6-6 ATS. L17 NE vs NYJ, ROAD 8-9 ATS. L17 NE vs NYJ, NE 15-2 SU but 8-8-1 ATS. L14 NE vs NYJ, if NE a FAV 7>pts, NE 6-8 ATS. NE 23-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NE 28-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NE 12-2 ATS after MIA. NE 7-0 ATS @HOME after allowing 10<pts. NE 21-24-1 L46 as a FAV 11>pts. NE 17-11-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 7>pts. NE 8-2 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 off div gm vs opp off HOME gm. NYJ since 2007 before bye, 7-5 ATS. NYJ 24-21 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NYJ 27-32 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYJ 26-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYJ 14-11-1 ATS L26 as a DOG 7>pts. NE will look to give the HOME crowd a gift. Beating NYJ always is great for Brady and NE shouldn’t stop on the brake. NYJ are reeling and they are going with a QB that hasn’t had much experience and is going against a great team here. Brady has a lot of weapons here and NYJ have a QB that is just getting his feet wet. NE will look at the tape of the MNF game and look to see what NYJ Luke Falk likes to do. NE should be able to exploit the NYJ secondary for a lot of points because of the weapons NE has. NE will be pumped but everyone knows the spread. This is the biggest spread since JAGS were getting 26 ½ pts @DEN in 2013. That JAG team was more talented than this NYJ team. I like NE here because NYJ just don’t have the personnel to compete here and NE will be sending a statement. I wouldn’t bet the house on this game because NE could be using 4th string guys at the end of the game and NYJ score a meaningless td that ends up covering.
THE PICK: NE-22 ½ 5 STARS
Detroit Lions (1-0-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS DET+6 ½
LW on SNF, PHILLY WR Nelson Agholor dropped a certain td pass late in the game that would won the game for PHILLY. I liked PHILLY @ATL because I felt it would come down to the wire, (it did) and PHILLY would pull it out. It was all going according to plan and then that dropped pass happened. PHILLY played a good game & PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is getting better with each game. He almost won the game without WRs DeSean Jackson & Alshon Jeffery who both left the game with injuries. Jeffery is doubtful for this game and Jackson’s status is up in the air. A healthy RB Jordan Howard takes pressure off of Wentz as does an effective RB Darren Sproles. PHILLY needs to get their run game going. LW, DET & LAC played a very sloppy game. DET was very lucky to come away with the win because they gave up 137 yds rushing. LAC missed 2fgs, while DET missed 1fg & 1 extra point. Plus, both teams had a lot of penalties. L7 PHILLY vs DET, PHILLY 4-3 SU but 3-4 ATS. PHILLY 0-5 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 21-29 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PHILLY 28-38 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 22-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DET 32-30 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. This is a big bounceback game for PHILLY to get back in the race for NFC EAST. Historically, DET does not do well outside the dome and PHILLY should be pumped for this game. The key for PHILLY is to put as much pressure on Stafford as possible because he folds like a house of cards. Lay the points here as PHILLY gets back on the winning track.
THE PICK: PHILLY-6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday September 22nd, 2019 4:00pm
Carolina Panthers (0-2), (0-1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1), (2-0) ATS, (0-0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS ARZ+3
CAR is in a downslide and QB Cam Newton is certainly not 100%. On TNF, Cam was missing throws and certainly not taking off like he has in the past. If Cam is not able to play, Kyle Allen will start. Is QB Will Grier far behind? If I was CAR HC Ron Rivera, I would be worried. This team relies too much on RB Christian McCaffrey & TE Greg Olsen for its OFF. Why isn’t WR Chris Hogan being used more? LW, ARZ wasn’t beating @BALT. But BALT is not good with big spreads and ARZ was +13 ½ . The way ARZ is playing, they will be busting out really soon. I like the way ARZ Kyler Murray is playing right now and he didn’t have any turnovers vs a BALT team that is known for their DEF. ARZ was playing catchup the whole game @BALT but, they didn’t let it become a runaway. ARZ was in reach of a win. But ARZ has to start winning if Kyler Murray is going to be successful. This is a game for the taking because CAR is in chaos and Cam is not 100% no matter what he says. The DEF for CAR is good but like any other DEF, they can’t stay on the field all day. L9 ARZ vs CAR, CAR 7-2 SU & 6-1-2 ATS. ARZ 8-4 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. ARZ 19-26-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 6-6-1 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 39-31-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ARZ 10-3 ATS L13 as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 13-3 ATS as a non-div HD <7pts. ARZ 12-7 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 1-13 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 1-11 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SUATS loss 7<pts. ARZ 3-9 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div opp. CAR 5-10-1 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. CAR 6-7-1 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. CAR 16-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CAR 17-19 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CAR 17-21-2 ATS L40 as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 3-8-1 ATS L12 AWAY off div gm. CAR is certainly in trouble and they don’t have the personnel to change it. Cam is too arrogant to change anything and HC Ron Rivera is not going to challenge him. This as of Tuesday, Cam has aggravated his foot injury and his status for this game is unclear. ARZ is all of a sudden exciting to watch and the team is getting behind Kyler Murray. CAR is the FAV here because everyone is thinking old CAR but they should be the DOG. CAR hasn’t beaten a decent team since wk 8 vs BALT in 2018. Don’t look at wk 17 because that was vs a NO team that had starters out. Take ARZ plus the points because this will be their 1st win of the season.
THE PICK: ARZ+3 5 STARS
NY Giants (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ TB Bucs (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NY+6 ½
LW, NYG lost @HOME to BUFF. Eli Manning did not have a good game and HC Pat Shurmur has decided that QB Daniel Jones will start the game vs TB. The O-LINE is still a problem for NYG but, RB Saquon Barkley is the best athlete on this team. He is playing very well and takes a lot of pressure off whoever is the QB. The DEF for NYG is lax and NYG played catchup the whole game after starting out the game with a 7-0 lead. BUFF rushed for a lot of yards and that may be a tell tale sign for this week vs TB. BUFF found ways to score and it didn’t help that Manning threw 2INTS. Maybe a change here is necessary but, HC Pat Shurmur knows that he is under the gun and if NYG doesn’t start winning, he will be gone. TB played well on TNF @ CAR. Everyone thought that CAR would beat up TB but, it was the other way around. TB QB Jameis Winston recovered nicely from his atrocious opening week game @HOME vs SF. We were all thinking old CAR but they are the beaten down CAR. TB has HC Bruce Arians who is known as the QB guru and if he can get Winston playing better than TB can start winning. TB has RBs Peyton Barber & Ronald James that should take a lot of pressure off of Winston. TB DC Todd Bowles should throw a lot of different looks at Daniel Jones so that he makes mistakes. L6 TB vs NYG, NYG 5-1 SUATS. TB 21-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TB 18-21 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TB 12-24-2 ATS L33 as a HOME FAV. TB 0-4 ATS as a HF vs opp off BB SU losses. NYG 26-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYG 28-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 5-7 ATS L12 before div HOME gm. NYG 2-12 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 0-6 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. The DEF for TB played well vs CAR & SF as well. HC Todd Bowles may not be a good HC but he certainly is a good DC. The game vs SF looks lopsided because of Winston’s INTS but vs CAR he played well. NYG are pretty bad and TB should have an easy one here. Lay the points as TB should win by at least 10 points.
THE PICK: TB-6 ½ 5 STARS
Houston Texans (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ LA Chargers (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS HOU+3
LW, HOU barely beat the JAGS @HOME. It was a sloppy game and the game was decided by a missed 2pt conversion. HOU was a heavy FAV and didn’t cover by a longshot. HOU HC Bill O’Brien may feel proud of the win but I knew JAGS were going to play them tough and they did. LW, LAC & DET played their version of a sloppy game with multiple missed fgs on both sides with LAC coming out the loser. I liked DET to bounceback after the tie in the desert with ARZ where they blew a big lead. They didn’t disappoint even though this game could have gone either way. Anyway, LAC RB Austin Ekeler has fit in nicely while RB Melvin Gordon holds out. He may be on the verge of having a bust out game. The DEF for LAC has to start stepping it up. They had no sacks of Matt Stafford LW but did intercept two of his passes. DEs Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram have to step it up a little more and this week they need to keep their eyes on HOU QB Deshaun Watson. I like Watson and I think he has a lot of talent but it’s their coach who is no good. LAC needs to take advantage of their opportunities and LAC needs to get going in the right direction. L5 LAC vs HOU, LAC 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. LAC 26-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 26-29 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAC 34-30-1 L65 as a HF vs non-div. Rivers 26-5 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 13-3 ATS L16 @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. HOU 15-19 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. HOU 14-16 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU 4-5-1 ATS L10 after JAGS. HOU 2-5 ATS off SU DIV HOME win vs non-div opp. HOU 1-6 ATS AWA off SU Div win. Rivers & CO have a spell over the AFC SOUTH. But they must get going if they want to duel KC and losses won’t help them. This is a bounceback game for LAC and they should win. HOU will give it its best but come up short. I see LAC winning by about 4pts in a tough battle. But lay the points here as LAC prevails.
THE PICK: LAC-3 3 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS PITT+6 ½
Ok, so we know that PITT QB Big Ben Roethlisberger is officially out for the rest of the season. QB Mason Rudolph was thrown in there and didn’t do too bad of a job. He did have 1INT but it was his first game action after being drafted in 2018. He has good size at 6’5” 235Ilbs so he can stay in the pocket a long time. However, even with Big Ben fully healthy last week, I liked SEA to keep it close. They did and won outright. PITT picked up DB Mincah Fitzpatrick from MIA to shore up their secondary which was having problems all over the place. LW, SEA exploited the PITT secondary and PITT was playing catchup the 2nd half of the game. LW, SF just about had their way with CINNCY @CINNCY. SF rushed over CINNCY for 259 yds. It was like a Mack truck hit CINNCY. SF QB Jimmy Garappolo had 3tds, 1INT but was not sacked at all. SF is loaded on OFF even without RB Jerick McKinnon. RBs Matt Breida & Raheem Mostert are a 1-2 punch that no one has ever heard of. But, if they keep it up, you will certainly hear plenty about them. Plus, the SF DEF is playing well too. They had four sacks of CINNCY QB Andy Dalton and 1INT. The SF OFF made the most of their opportunities and the DEF kept CINNCY from getting anywhere near the endzone. SF since 2007, before their bye, 7-5 ATS. SF 27-19 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SF 30-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 7-0-1 ATS as a FAV off SU DOG win. SF 6-0 ATS as a FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. SF 5-12-2 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 5-0 ATS @HOME off SU win vs <.500 non-conf opp. SF 10-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. PITT 18-35-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PITT 10-21-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. PITT 9-14 ATS before Cinncy. PITT 14-6 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 12-2 ATS as a DOG 3>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. PITT 1-8 ATS in gms 1-4 as a RD >3pts vs non-div opp. PITT 12-1 ATS as a DOG vs >.500 opp. Originally, I thought that with PITT being desperate for a win, they would be the logical choice in this game but, the SF DEF combined with an OFF that is starting to gel well could mean that this game might get out of hand for PITT early. The OFF for PITT doesn’t have too many playmakers and their secondary is still not up to speed even with the addition of Fitzpatrick. Lay the points here as it is HOME cooking for SF as PITT needs to find some playmakers fast.
THE PICK: SF-6 ½ 5 STARS
NO Saints (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS NO+5
NO QB Drew Brees will be out a minimum of six weeks with his thumb. Even if he didn’t get injured in the game @LAR LW, I don’t know if NO would have beaten LAR. They just didn’t seem ready and LAR was waiting. QB Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t really played much since he’s been with NO and when he was thrown into the mix @LAR he seemed a little rusty but, this week he’ll be ready. There is certainly a lot of talent around this team for Teddy to be successful in Brees’s absence. He just needs to take what the opposing DEF gives him. NO DEF was ready but they were on the field a lot in the 2nd half and that’s when LAR pulled away. This week, they will be ready. LW, SEA beat up PITT in a see-saw battle. Big Ben wasn’t even touched but strained his elbow and had to leave the game. QB Mason Rudolph came in and did a credible job but the DEF for PITT gave up the game. SEA took advantage of a shady PITT secondary. L5 NO vs SEA, NO 3-2 SUATS. NO 5-5 ATS L10 in 2nd of BB RG’s. NO 26-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NO 23-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 5-7 ATS L12 vs NFC WEST. NO 13-8 ATS L21 as a ROAD DOG. SEA 32-21-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 30-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SEA 4-7 ATS before ARZ. SEA 2-6 ATS L8 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 11-2 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non-div opp off DD SU loss. SEA 20-6 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non-div opp. SEA 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. SEA secondary is questionable in its own right and NO has many weapons that can exploit it. Bridgewater is not some rookie that has been thrown in to the fire. He was the starter in MINN before he got hurt and NO signed him for just this situation. Now he can show everyone that he hasn’t missed a beat. I think NO goes in and surprises SEA a little and keeps things close. NO may even win the game but the rest of the team has to be on board. This should be a good game and tight. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NO+5 5 STARS
Sunday September 22nd, 2019 8:20pm
LA Rams (2-0), (1-0-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS CLEVE+2 ½
LW, LAR did what they had to do @HOME vs NO. It was a freak accident that NO QB Drew Brees’s hand, in his follow through, hit DT Aaron Donald’s hand. Brees injured his thumb and QB Teddy Bridgewater came in. Brdigewater has played next to nothing since joining NO before the 2018 season so he was a little rusty. But LAR DEF was on top of its game. LAR DEF allowed 57 yds rushing and sacked Bridgewater 2x. The NO OFF only mustered 3fgs and LAR rolled 27-9. LAR RB Todd Gurley was used sparingly with RB Malcolm Brown to keep the NO DEF at bay. This game was closer than the score dictated. On MNF, CLEVE struggled @NYJ. The game was not flowing for CLEVE. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield did not take what the DEF was giving him and tried to hit homeruns on every pass. CLEVE scored only 2tds. One was on a missed coverage and a foot race with CLEVE WR Odell Beckham and the other was a nice run at the conclusion of a drive by RB Nick Chubb. The running game wasn’t all that impressive otherwise and CLEVE did struggle vs a NYJ team that was using their 3rd string QB. LAR 6-8-1 ATS L15 as ROAD FAV. LAR 3-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. LAR 9-1 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU wins. 2-11 ATS.500> in gms 1-4 2nd of BB non-div gms. LAR 7-8 ATS AWAY on SNF. CLEVE 9-15-1 ATS L25 as HOME DOG. CLEVE 17-18 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CLEVE 30-24 ATS as a DOG In SEPT. CLEVE 6-13-1 ATS L20 vs NFC. CLEV 1-10 ATS off DD SU win. 2-11 ATS as a HD vs .600>opp. CLEVE 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs opp off BB SU wins. CLEVE 0-5 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEVE 1-2 ATS @HOME on SNF. This will be a very tough game for CLEVE. Mayfield is a gun slinger like Brett Favre but, Mayfield is still learning the game. He will certainly try to hit homeruns ve the LAR DEF but, they will bait him and he will make mistakes. LAR is better on both sides of the ball and should display it in this game. However, there will be a battle of the LAR O-LINE vs CLEVE D-LINE as DE Myles Garrett is a lot to handle. Lay the points.
THE PICK: LAR-2 ½ 5 STARS
Monday September 23rd, 2019 8:15pm
Chicago Bears (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Washington Redskins (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS WASH+4
LW, CHI stole a game from DEN. A bogus roughing the passer call gave CHI fifteen more yards to work with and eventually they were able to kick a last second fg to come away with the win @DEN. However, no cover and I liked DEN to win that game outright. But, a cover is a cover. Grant you, CHI DEF is playing well but, the OFF is terrible. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky is not reading or cannot read the DEF. Hence, he does not know what is coming. LW, WASH started out great but DAL is just too tough and WASH can’t seem to get it going. I liked DAL as the ROAD FAV vs WASH and they delivered. WASH is desperate for a win here as they would be 0-3 if they lose here. As you will see WASH has a terrible record on MNF and in 2017 blew a definite cover with a last second muffed throwing passes backward kick return with no seconds left which KC just picked up and walked into the endzone thereby destroying a good cover. WASH QB Case Keenum is decent but the WASH DEF has to get better. They have given up 31 & 32 pints in the first two games. CHI right now is not kn0wn for their OFF, only their DEF. This is why I believe the pick here is WASH. It will be one of those very close games decided by 3pts or less and I feel that WASH has a legitimate chance of winning out right. L7 WASH vs CHI, WASH 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS. WASH 19-33 ATS @HOME in SEPT. WASH 26-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 9-7 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. WASH 7-5 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. WASH 1-14 ATS @HOME on MNF. WASH 1-6 ATS L7 on MNF. WASH 14-6-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 8-4 ATS as a HD vs .400> opp. WASH 5-2 ATS of BB SU losses. WASH 4-8 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. CHI 3-5 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 16-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CHI 20-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 7-5-1 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s. CHI 4-8-1 ATS L13 before MINN. CHI 3-4 ATS as a RF on MNF. Everything in the stats points to CHI winning here and a possible cover but, WASH is due and needs to play smart. They are not playing against a very good OFF team so that is to their advantage. What they are playing against is a team that has a very good DEF and they need to know that they must take advantage of every opportunity because it may not happen often in this game. The CHI DEF can be swarming. Just ask Rodgers & Flacco. This game will be closer than the spread but CHI will somehow win.
THE PICK: WASH+4 3 STARS