2019 NFL WEEK 4
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 4 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
This season there doesn’t appear to be anything like a HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE because the AWAY team is 32-15-1 ATS. Also, teams that you would expect to bounceback after a loss look a little more lethargic than usual. There have also been more sloppy games with multiple turnovers this season. Could it have to do with all the injured QBs? Usually there is a rhythm with a starting QB. It takes time to get into a rhythm with a backup. We shall see what happens this weekend. Enjoy the games!
Thursday September 26th, 2019 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS@ GB Packers (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS PHILLY+4
LW, PHILLY lost because of dropped passes, fumbles and the DEF couldn’t stop anyone on DET. The secondary fro PHILLY is certainly a problem and that’s what caused DET to basically run away with the game. DET built a 20-10 halftime lead and PHILLY spent the rest of the game playing catchup. After PHILLY scored a td late in the 3rd qtr, DET came right back and scored a td and PHILLY couldn’t muster enough OFF to overcome DET. Mind you that PHILLY WRs DeSean Jackson & Alshon Jeffery were out. Jeffery is projected to be available for this game but, Jackson will still be out with an abdominal strain. PHILLY DEF can’t seem to stop anyone and now you have QB Aaron Rodgers to face. LW, GB beat DEN and this game was actually tied in the 2nd qtr 10-10 before GB pulled away 24-10. DEN OFF couldn’t do much against the mighty GB DEF. Yes, I said that because GB DEF is playing much better after years of giving up yards and points to teams that should never have given GB any game. Anyhow, GB only gave up a td with a missed a missed extra point and GB added a fg for good measure. I felt DEN would keep it a little closer considering how they were beaten the week before @HOME vs CHI, when they had the game in hand. But DEN QB Joe Flacco reverted back to average JOE with 1INT & 1 fumb and couldn’t get close. Rodgers did what he needed to do which was no turnovers, no sacks and pass for a td. GB now faces a PHILLY team with more questions than answers. L8 GB vs PHILLY, 4-4 SUATS. GB 33-26-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 39-36 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. GB 6-1-1 ATS L8 as a HOME FAV vs NFC EAST. GB 14-2 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 2-9 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. GB 11-1 ATS as a HF <13pts off non-conf gm. GB 9-0 ATS in gms 1-4 as a FAV 7<pts off SU win vs <500 non-div opp. GB 9-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PHILLY 4-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. HILLY 2-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. PHILLY 20-32 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PHILLY 16-20 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. PHILLY 1-6 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. The DEF for GB has been underestimated by a lot of folks but DC Mike Pettine has GB DEF finally playing well. This game is a true test because Carson Wentz is very talented. GB will be up to the challenge. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: GB-4 5 STARS
TWO TEAM TEASER BET: Tease down BALT-6 ½ to BALT- ½ & KC-6 ½ to KC - ½ and take both BALT - ½ & KC – ½. BALT is certainly on a bounceback and will take down CLEVE. KC has too many weapons for DET.
Sunday September 29th, 2019 1:00pm
Tennessee Titans (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS TENN+4
On TNF, TENN was embarrassed by JAGS. JAGS were in a desperation mode in that they needed a win very badly and could not go down 0-3. JAGS came out ready & before you knew it, TENN was down 17-0. TENN never recovered. Plus the fact that Mariota was sacked 9x. How much OFF can you get when your QB is laying on the ground? LW, ATL was playing @INDY and not only did they lose the game, they lost S Keanu Neal to a torn Achilles. I didn’t think that INDY would be able to cover all of ATL’s OFF weapons but I knew that the ATL DEF was terrible and the game would be close. It was a three point game and ATL was getting 1 ½ pts. Unfortunately INDY won. ATL has some major problems that I discussed in my NFC Projections and it looks like they were never addressed moving forward. If TENN is able to exploit them, they will have the win. Look for TENN CB Malcolm Butler to shadow ATL WR Julio Jones. TENN RB Derrick Henry has to get going. L3 TENN vs ATL, TENN 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. TENN 3-3 ATS L6 after TNF. TENN 11-5 SUATS vs NFC SOUTH inclu 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS vs 500<NFC SOUTH opp. TENN 5-8-1 ATS 1NL in L14 of 2nd of BB RG’s. TENN 28-25 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 34-22 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TENN 8-0 ATS as a non-conf DOG vs 500<opp. TENN 5-4 ATS after JAGS. ATL 28-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 21-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN is on a bounceback and HC Mike Vrabel has that NE mentality. The DEF has to play better. ATL is not doing so good either but their DEF is awful and Mariota should just take what the DEF gives him and take advantage of that. I think this game will also be close as both teams have a lot of questions that need answering but, ATL HC Dan Quinn sometimes makes questionable calls and relies too much on his stars. Sometimes you have to shake things up. If it wasn’t for a dropped td pass in the game vs PHILLY, ATL would be 0-3. I like TENN to keep things close and they have a good chance to also win outright. Mariota must play smarter. Take the points here.
THE PICK: TENN+4 3 STARS
NE Patriots (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS BUFF+7
LW, NE was up 30-0 and of course there was no doubt that NE was winning this game but, the cover was not yet cemented. However, the only time NE pays attention to the spread is when they are the DOGS. This, Brady takes personally. Anyway, NE got a little too cute for their own good and muffed a punt which turned into seven points for NYJ. That wasn’t catastrophic because NE was up by 23 and the spread was 22 ½ . Then instead of leaving Brady in the game as NE usually does, they let backup QB Jarrett Stidham come in. On his 3rd pass, he threw an easy INT to NYJ CB Jamal Adams who returned it 61 yds for a td. Cover blown, Brady in but, NE just using the clock. It was too good to be true. LW, BUFF had a scare, they were up 14-0 @HOME on CINNCY and then actually let CINNCY take the lead 17-14 before finding a nice drive and winning the game 21-17. I liked CINNCY+6 ½ because BUFF has been winning but, who have they played? The beat the NYJ after spotting them a 16-0 lead and winning 17-16. They beat NYG 28-14 and right now CINNCY is better than both of them and was desperate for a win that’s why I like them and the points. This week NE @ BUFF. Brady has personally owned the BILLS. No matter how good BUFF has been in the past years Brady has been able t pick them apart. Tom Brady, 32 games vs BUFF, 30-2 SU vs BUFF. L24 NE vs BUFF, NE 21-3 SU, 15-7-2 ATS. L12 NE @ BUFF, NE 11-1 SU & 9-2-1 ATS. L21 NE @ BUFF, NE 18-3 ATS. L31 NE vs BUFF, NE 28-3 SU. NE 17-13-2 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. NE 8-6-2 ATS L16 in 1st of BB RG’s. NE 28-34 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NE 26-26 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 20-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NE 9-10-1 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 9-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off div gm vs opp off HOME game. BUFF 5-10 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. BUFF 6-6 ATS 1 NL in L13 2nd of BB HG’s. BUFF 29-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. BUFF 23-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. BUFF 34-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BUFF 4-5-1 ATS L10 as HOME DOG 7>pts. BUFF 7-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs undefeated opp. Who has BUFF played that makes them great? NYJ, NYG & CINNCY are a combined 1-8 SU. Now they have some real competition and NE has owned them. WR Julian Edelman left the game vs NYJ with an injured rib but should be available for this game. Brady likes to get everyone involved in some form or another. However, if NE is going to beat BUFF convincingly, they need to rush for more than 68 yards which they did vs NYJ. The run game will keep the BUFF DEF on their toes. BUFF QB Josh Allen has been inconsistent and still needs to up his game. BUFF RB Frank Gore has shown that father time hasn’t affected him but vs NE he may have a tougher time. BUFF will put up a good fight in this one because they feel that they have something to prove but, Belichick will counter punch. Lay the points here as the dominance by NE of BUFF continues.
THE PICK: NE-7 5 STARS
KC Chiefs (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Detroit Lions (2-0-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DET+6 ½
LW, KC beat BALT. They did it but didn’t cover the 6 ½ pt spread. I knew the game would be closer and it was. The DEF for KC is suspect at times and against more talented teams may have a problem handling coverages. KC QB Pat Mahomes is great and talented but, let’s see what he does in the postseason, end of discussion. RB LeSean McCoy is probable with his ankle for this week @DET. LW, DET went to PHILLY and beat up on PHILLY. Even PHILLY beat up on PHILLY with turnovers. I liked PHILLY in that game because they should have beaten ATL on SNF and they came back to PHILLY pissed and in a bounceback situation. But DET took advantage of PHILLY’s dropped passes and inconsistencies. Hence a DET win. Well, KC has many weapons and DET may not be able to cover them all. Yes, DET HC Matt Patricia is competent but, he is not working with the NE DEF anymore. DET was also lucky to beat LAC a couple of weeks ago because that was a sloppy game on both sides. They also walked away with a tie wk1 @ARZ after having floundered a big lead in the 4th qtr. KC 37-20 ATS AWAY in SEPT. KC 33-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 7-1 ATS vs 700>opp. KC 10-7 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. DET 4-8 ATS since 2007 before bye. DET 32-20 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 7-11 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. DET 34-30 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DET 15-20-1 ATS L36 (H) vs non-div. Mahomes approaches each game as a new adventure. So far, DET has been more lucky than good. This week, their luck runs out. Lay the points here as KC comes in and runs a clinic on OFF and DET tries to catch up but no luck. I would rate DET lower than BALT and not as talented. Lay the points here.
The PICK: KC- 6 ½ 3 STARS
Oakland Raiders (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (2-1), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS OAK+7
OAK fooled everyone by winning the 1st game of the season in the fashion that they did it. In that game they did almost everything right and fooled everyone into thinking that this team may be on the upswing. Well, the next two weeks they lost games by 18 pts and 20 points. They fooled people again in the game vs KC by taking a 10-0 lead only to lose 28-10. Anyway, OAK has reverted back and find themselves just treading water, again. Oh and LW, they lost @MINN by 20 points, 34-14. Even with OAK+9 they couldn’t keep it close. LW, INDY beat a talented ATL OFF, 27-24. I say this because ATL DEF is terrible and they have to outscore their opponent to win. INDY staked a nice lead and never relinquished. ATL played catchup the whole game and never quite caught up. Both of INDY’s wins were very close and probably could have gone the other way. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett is feeling comfortable because he’s the guy and not just filling in until someone else gets back. However, OAK has to show something here. OAK QB Derek Carr has to have the mindset that they will score every time they have the ball. The OAK DEF has to step up even if they are a bunch of nobodies. They have to play like they did vs DEN. OAK RB Josh Jacobs has been doing a nice job and takes some pressure off of Carr but, he can’t do it alone. L6 OAK vs INDY, INDY 5-1 SU but 3-3 ATS. OAK 6-6-2 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. OAK 29-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. OAK 32-30 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. OAK 24-26 ATS L50 as a RD. OAK 8-5 ATS L13 vs non-div when a DOG 7>pts. OAK 6-1 ATS L7 vs AFC SOUTH. OAK 8-0 ATS AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. INDY 4-5 ATS L9 in 2nd of BB HG’s. INDY 23-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. INDY 28-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. INDY 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div gm vs opp off AWAY gm. INDY hasn’t been this big of a FAV since LY. In 2018, INDY 1-2 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. OAK has a decent OFF, it’s their DEF that needs help. OAK needs to play like they played in that 1st game vs DEN. OAK DEF has 5 sacks & 0INTS. They need to create some turnovers. If this game were 3pts I would definitely say INDY but INDY is laying a td and that’s big. OAK HC is not a very good coach no matter what he thinks or anybody else thinks. What he has done with this OAK is not much and he needs to start turning things around. But, can he? Anyway, I like the points here because it will be closer than the spread suggests.
THE PICK: OAK+7 3 STARS
LA Chargers (1-2), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS MIA+15 ½
LAC RB Melvin Gordon will be back today for the team but will not be activated for this game @MIA. That should be very good news for QB Philip Rivers. LW, LAC was in a battle with HOU and LAC QB Philip Rivers had a key fumble that turned the game for HOU. LAC never recovered and HOU won a game that LAC should have wn after a loss @DET. MIA is just a disaster. However, they were playing competitively LW @DAL into the 3rd qtr until MIA RB Kenyon Drake fumbled the ball inside the DAL 10-yard line. At the time MIA was trailing 10-6. After that, the flood gates opened for DAL and DAL won 31-6. MIA is really bad but is LAC really that good? Rivers has a way of making things more complicated than they really seem and is MIA ready to get embarrassed again @HOME? L9 LAC vs MIA, MIA 6-3 SUATS. LAC 25-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAC 26-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 6-3-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 4-10-1 ATS L15 AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 7-4 ATS L11 before DEN. MIA 8-8-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. MIA 5-6 ATS since 2007 before bye. MIA 22-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 24-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MIA 1-11-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 16-10 ATS L26 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 12-3-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs conf opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 2-10 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SUATS non-div loss. MIA would constitute as an UGLY HOME DOG and they are so due for at least a cover. Nothing has gone right for MIA and in the past I would say that MIA had a fighting chance. LAC has made some big mistakes in the last two games and could have won both of them. They have to be excited that RB Melvin Gordon is coming back. Right now, MIA QB Josh Rosen is eating his words. This game is a toss up in the case of the ATS because LAC has won big spreads. MIA is just so bad. Lay the points here as LAC gets back in the hunt in the AFC WEST and gets their OFF & DEF in gear. Des Melvin Ingram & Joey Bosa have a combined 2.5 sacks. I see a big game for them this week and the rest of the DEF. MIA QB Josh Rosen will try to do too much and that will get him in trouble. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: LAC-15 ½ 3 STARS
Washington Redskins (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NY Giants (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS WASH+3
On MNF, total disaster for WASH. WASH QB Case Keenum had 3INTS including a PICK6 & 2 fumbles. Besides that the CHI DEF was all over WASH. On DEF WASH looked like they were standing around looking at each after missed assignments. They made CHI QB Mitch Trubisky look like Tom Brady. Before you blinked, the score was CHI 28-0. Turn your sets off there. Maybe the message isn’t getting through to the players from HC Jay Gruden, because it certainly looked like it wasn’t a full effort on the part of the WASH players. The WASH DC Greg Manusky has got to go. He has been the DC for three full seasons and the WASH DEF has been rated #28 in 2016, #21 in 2017 & #17 in 2018. Nothing spectacular here with flaws all over the place. As for the OFF, can the O-LINE do their job? Upon turning the ball over 5x, Keenum was sacked 4x. The run game couldn’t get anything going and rushed for 69 yds. Hence,7 a 31-15 drudging. For NYG, they were down 28-10 at the half @TB. NYG QB Daniel Jones was in his 1st NFL start and well, what happened next was a combination of his poise and TB in total letdown mode. Daniel Jones didn’t give up and brought the NYG back to a 32-31 win. In the winning drive, he took it upon himself and saw that the middle of the TB DEF was wide open and he basically walked right into the endzone untouched. He had a great game and the news media have been calling him the 2nd coming and blah blah, etc. Well, in 2018 a guy by the name of Nick Mullins of SF had a fantastic 1st NFL start vs a terrible OAK team and wiped the floor with them only to come crashing down to Earth the very next week. Also, RB Saquon Barkley is out. NYG(H) vs WASH, NYG 8-4 SU & 6-6 ATS. L20 NYG vs WASH, DOG 11-9 ATS. WASH 35-17 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 26-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 20-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. WASH 5-3 ATS of BB SU loses. WAS 7-0 ATS in gms 1-4 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU DOG win. WASH 10-3 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs div opp. WASH 8-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. NYG 19-35 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYG 24-25 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NYG 22-19 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. NYG 3-11 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NYG 2-12 ATS as a FAV in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH is desperate for a win like no ones business and if there isn’t some improvement soon by WASH, owner Daniel Snyder may just clean house, again. I don’t blame him this time because guys are just not stepping up. CB Josh Norman isn’t doing much except cashing paychecks and the rest of the DEF is on vacation but, in this situation where NYG will be crashing back down to Earth, I like them here. No more WASH on MNF where they have the worst record in its history but have a shot the next week, WASH 4-7 ATS L11 after MNF. There is also pressure on NYG HC Pat Shurmur to produce but he is probably too giddy thinking he has found a winner. NYG #32 PASS DEF. WASH QB Case Keenum has to take what the NYG DEF gives him and move forward. As of right now, Case Keenum might not play on SUN vs NYG because of a foot injury. But, Colt McCoy or Dwayne Haskins may play this game, stay tuned. Remember, NYG played a terrible TB team, if Jones does that vs NE, then they know they have something. Take the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+3 3 STARS
Cleveland Browns (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS CLEVE+6 ½
LW, on SNF CLEVE had a 1st & goal at the LAR 4-yard line late in the 4th qtr only down by 7pts with :43 to play. If they got a td & the extra point the game would have gone into OT. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield threw three incomplete passes and the 4th pass on 4th down was intercepted in the endzone. Very bad play calling by CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens and bad execution by Mayfield & CO. That’s what happens when you bring in a guy with no HC experience and a young QB. It is a recipe for disaster. So far, the only CLEVE win this season was vs the hapless NYJ and that game seemed like a struggle. They blew a big game vs TENN & they blew the game vs LAR when they could have tied it. LAR didn’t play exceedingly well but have the players to make the plays at the right time. For CLEVE, Mayfield has to have more patience and recognize what the DEF gives him. LW, I liked BALT with e points because in 2018 BALT had the game vs KC but let KC win it at the end. BALT had a little revenge on their minds but came up short. However, I like the 6 ½ BALT was getting because I felt it would be closer, it was. BALT should be steaming because the DEF for KC is still suspect in many areas. BALT hasn’t really beaten anyone yet in MIA & ARZ. CLEVE is a lower to medium team in the pack trying to improve. L22 BALT vs CLEVE, BALT 19-3 SU & 14-8 ATS. L12 BALT(H) vs CLEVE, BALT 10-2 SU & 6-6 ATS. L19 BALT vs CLEVE, ROAD 12-7 ATS. BALT 32-18 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 34-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 26-19 ATS vs AFC NORTH in SEPT. BALT 2-8 ATS before PITT. BALT 3-12 ATS as DIV HF 4>pts. BALT 10-4-1 ATS L15 after losing AWAY & coming HOME. CLEVE 6-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CLEVE 18-15 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CLEVE 30-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CLEVE 17-15 ATS vs AFC NORTH in SEPT. CLEVE 7-6 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. The BALT secondary is lead by S Earl Thomas who brings veteran leadership. BALT has to do better vs the PASS. BALT #27 PASS DEF. Mayfield can be baited into making mistakes. The BALT DEF is known for putting pressure on opposing QBs. I don’t think Mayfield is overrated, he just has a lot more to learn. CLEVE as a team has to be on the same page but they are not because the HC Freddie Kitchens is so new. I like this matchup: BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs CLEVE #14 RUSH DEF. BALT is on a bounceback and so is CLEVE but, in this case, BALT is HOME which does make a difference. Unless BALT gets away from their game plan, they should use ball control to beat up on CLEVE. Lay the points here as BALT bounces back.
THE PICK: BALT-6 ½ 3 STARS
Carolina Panthers (1-2), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS CAR+4
LW, CAR QB Kyle Allen did a nice job @ARZ. I thought that ARZ would be revved up @HOME for a win and that CAR was folding. Turns out, Kyle Allen played almost a flawless game except for 1fumble. He found TE Greg Olsen who seems to play big in big moments. RB Christian McCaffrey ran wild over the ARZ DEF. I don’t know if he’ll do that vs HOU. ARZ was the one that folded under pressure and the CAR DEF forced ARZ QB Kyler Murray to make mistakes. CAR also sacked Kyler Murray 8x. That could certainly have an effect on a QB’s decisions. LW, HOU had a nice comeback win vs LAC. LAC was winning but the DEF came up big and popped LAC QB Phillip Rivers for a fumble that turned the game for HOU. HOU has a terrible O-LINE which really wasn’t addressed in the off-season. QB Desahun Watson has already been sacked 12x in the first three games. RB Carlos Hyde has been the RB for HOU but the run game has been ineffective due to a terrible O-LINE. L3 CAR vs HOU, CAR 2-1 SUATS. CAR 6-8 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. CAR 21-19-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 18-19 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CRA 14-12-1 ATS L27 off DD SU win. CAR 9-1 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 8-0 ATS as a DOG >3pts vs opp off SU dog win. HOU 6-4-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. HOU 13-11 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 14-15 ATS @HOME in SEPT. HOU 10-7 ATS as a HF 4>pts. HOU 6-2 ATS as a non-div HF 4>pts. HOU 20-8-2 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs 600<opp. HOU 1-6 ATS as a non-conf HF off SU win. Kyle Allen has played well in the two games that he started. HOU goes too much to WR DeAndre Hopkins. This will be a good battle but I like the points that CAR is getting. HOU has some weapons but the O-LINE is what worries me in this game. Both are coming off nice wins so there is no bounceback here. This should be a good game with no blowout on either side. A close game and I like the points.
THE PICK: CAR+4 5 STARS
Sunday September 29th, 2019 4:00pm
TB Bucs (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ LA Rams (3-0), (2-0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS TB+9 ½
LW, TB was leading 28-10 @halftime @HOME vs NYG. Then they lay down and let NYG run over them like the Road Runner. Final score NYG 32-31. TB should be thoroughly embarrassed and should be pissed off this week. There is no more to say and TB HC Bruce Arians knows what to do next, he is not some rookie HC. LW, LAR got away with one. They are having struggles on OFF and not taking advantage of situations presented to them by the other teams. Plus, CLEVE had a 1st & goal at the 4 yard line at the end of the game and LAR was able to hang on with sheer luck because CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is either incompetent or still learning. Any other HC would have tied the game and gone into OT or scored a td and gone for 2 for the win. Neither of those scenarios happened because Kitchens is inexperienced and LAR DEF is pretty good. Anyway, TB needs to come out like they did @CAR on TNF a few weeks ago. LAR are a very good team but the knee of RB Todd Gurley is a concern and the reliance of QB Jared Goff on WR Cooper Kupp as his constant go to guy can be predictable for opposing DEFs. L8 TB vs LAR, LAR 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS. TB 28-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TB 30-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TB 11-6 ATS L17 in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 17-16-2 ATS L35 AWAY vs non-div. TB 14-13-1 ATS L28 as a DOG 7>pts. TB 2-9 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU non-div loss vs opp off SU win. LAR 25-28 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAR 18-30-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAR 18-17 ATS L35 as a HOME FAV. LAR 8-1-1 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 10-1 ATS in gms 1-4 off BB SU wins. LAR 3-11 ATS in gms 1-4 500> in 2nd of BB non-div gm. LAR 7-0-1 ATS L8 as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. HC Bruce Arians is trying to work with QB Jameis Winston and just let him take what the opposing DEFs give him. He has weapons, he needs to use them. The DEF for LAR can be penetrated if one is patient. This is a big bouceback week for TB after a demoralizing loss @HOME to NYG on top of the missed fg at the end of the game. LW, TB possessions in the 2nd half, 7 possessions, 4punts, 1INT, 1fg & 1 missed fg. I like the points here because TB has exhibited a sign that they could win again on the road. Also, is LAR thinking ahead about their TNF game @SEA? This could be a factor. Take the points here.
THE PICK: TB+9 ½ 3 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ARZ+5
LW, SEA was embarrassed @HOME vs NO. I liked NO plus the points because Teddy Bridgewater is no slouch and has taken MINN to the playoffs before he got hurt. He knows how to win. The final score doesn’t show the real struggle because SEA was down 27-7 going into the 4th qtr. SEA played impossible catchup and NO added another td for good measure. Final score was closer than the reality of the game because SEA was dominated on both sides of the ball and the SEA DEF had no answer for Bridgewater & CO. SEA didn’t even sack Bridgewater 1x or create any turnovers against him. LW, I felt that ARZ was due. CAR was coming in with a backup QB who’s only game starting was against a NO team in 2018 that had nothing to play for. ARZ came back vs DET in wk1 for a tie and they played @BALT very tough, only losing by 6 points, 23-17. I felt that ARZ @HOME would feel good and put in a great effort vs CAR with a backup QB. Well, ARZ QB Kyler Murray played like a real rookie and had a bad game. Plus, the ARZ DEF that was out on the field longer than it should have been due to 2INTS by Murray. CAR turned those two turnovers into 10 pts. L12 SEA @ARZ, SEA 6-5-1 SU & 6-4-2 ATS. L12 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 10-1-1 ATS. SEA 7-8-1 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 32-22-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 24-26-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SEA 18-23-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. SEA 12-17-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC WEST. SEA 11-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp allowed 35>pts. SEA 1-5 ATS L6 before LAR. ARZ 6-7-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 4-7-1 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. ARZ 19-27-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 39-32-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ARZ 20-22-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. ARZ 10-3 ATS in gms 1-4 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 1-14 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 1-12 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off SUATS loss 7<pts. ARZ 2-10 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div opp. Unfortunately for ARZ, SEA is a pissed off team that is on a bounceback and SEA HC Pete Carroll is very good at correcting mistakes. The secondary for SEA is still a problem but ARZ HC Kliff Klingbury is not as experienced at finding those holes. Lay the points here as SEA rebounds in a big way.
THE PICK: SEA-5 5 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS MINN+2
LW, MINN was taking candy from a baby, OAK. MINN won by 20 points and the MINN OFF had a field day. But then again it was OAK. MINN rushed for 211 yards. I can guarantee that will not happen vs CHI. MINN is probably feeling ver confident going into this game but, they shouldn’t. OAK is not CHI. On MNF, CHI beat WASH & WASH beat WASH. WASH didn’t do anything right and made CHI QB Mitch Trubisky look almost like Tom Brady. The DEF for CHI was all over WASH like a bad cold. WASH QB Case Keenum had 3INTS & 2fumbles. CHI RB David Montgomery is getting better every game and filling the void left by RB Jordan Howard. Mitch Trubisky just has to be average. These two teams know each other but the CHI DEF is like a swarm. L12 CHI(H) vs MINN, CHI 9-3 SU & 8-3 ATS 1NL. L24 MINN vs CHI, HOME 15-8 ATS 1NL. CHI 17-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CHI 27-30 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CHI 19-28 ATS vs NFC NORTH in SEPT. CHI 8-2 ATS vs 500>div opp off DD SU win. MINN 5-6 ATS L11 in 1st of BB RG’s. MINN 24-25-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MINN 27-20 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 23-21 ATS vs NFC NORTH in SEPT. MINN 20-11-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 16-7 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 1-8 ATS in gms 1-4 off DD SU win vs opp off SUATS win. The DEF for CHI has had many stars and the OFF has to get going which it did vs WASH. MINN had a big game vs OAK but it was OAK. MINN will come back down to Earth vs CHI. This is almost a PICK’EM game but CHI right now is definitely superior due to their DEF. I like CHI here laying less than a fg because I can definitely see Kirk Cousins throwing a couple of INTs. CHI should win by a td.
THE PICK: CHI-2 5 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Denver Broncos (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS JAGS+3
On TNF, JAGS took care of TENN like I knew they would. Why? because they were desperate for a win and TENN w/ Mariota is completely unpredictable. Plus the JAGS DEF sacked Mariota 9x. JAGS had a 17-0 lead on TENN and TENN was playing catchup all night. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette looked like he might break a few but TENN was tough vs the run. JAGS QB Gardner Mishew played well leading the JAGS & TENN DEF didn’t sack him all night. LW, DEN was a total laydown @GB. DEN QB Joe Flacco looks like Average Joe instead of incredible Joe. The DEN for DEN looks lethargic and has exactly 0 sacks & 0INTS through three games. That’s not a misprint. DEN was scoring along with GB but GB made adjustments in the 2nd half and GB pulled away. DEN played catchup to no avail. L7 JAGS vs DEN, JAGS 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. JAGS 5-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. JAGS 27-27 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. JAGS 19-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. JAGS 11-3 ATS as a DOG 6<pts after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 7-2 ATS after TENN. JAGS 1-13 ATS off SU DOG win vs 400>opp. JAGS 1-10 ATS in gms 1-4 AWAY vs <500 opp off SU loss. JAGS 2-12 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non-div opp off SU loss. JAGS 7-0 ATSw/rest vs <600 opp. JAGS 1-8 ATS vs AFC WEST. JAGS 0-6 ATS L6 off SU DOG win. JAGS 0-5 ATS L5 AWAY after allowing 10<pts. JAGS vs Joe Flacco, JAGS 3-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS. DEN 30-23-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DEN 39-31-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DEN 19-21-1 ATS L41 after an SU loss. DEN 6-1 ATS as a FAV off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. DEN 7-0 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div vs opp off SU DOG win. I don’t think DEN can just turn it on. DEN DEF has gotten a little older since their 2015 run and guys are disappearing on DEF. HC Vic Fangio was the DC @CHI in 2018 but that hasn’t transpired to the DEN DEF. As for JAGS, they are just finding out what Gardner Mishew’s game is all about. Also, does CB Jalen Ramsey play in this game or is he somewhere else come game day? JAGS have to act like he’s already gone. Take the points here because I don’t see DEN waking up and JAGS have nothing to lose. This should be a good game and could go down to the wire.
THE PICK: JAGS+3 5 STARS
Sunday September 29th, 2019 8:20pm
Dallas Cowboys (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NO Saints (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS NO+2 ½
LW @SEA, I loved NO+5 and probably should have taken that as my pick of the week. NO went into SEA and took care of business and was up 27-7 going into the 4th qtr. The game ended up 33-27 but SEA was playing a big catchup in the 4th qtr but it was too little, too late. SEA underestimated Teddy Bridgewater and they paid for it. NO dominated on both sides of the ball and in special teams. NO exploited a SEA secondary that has become a liability. LW, DAL had a tough 1st half vs MIA. It was 10-6 going into the 3rd qtr and MIA fumbled inside the DAL 10yd line. It looked like MIA would score and actually take the lead but DAL got very lucky. But from there on it was the DAL show and they ended up winning 31-6. There is not much to say about that game because that is a game that DAL should not have had a problem with from the opening second. MIA is terrible and is not even rebuilding. Hence the pounding should have been from the beginning. DAL rushed for over 200 yds but that won’t happen this week. There is just too much talent on the NO DEF to give up that kind of yardage. Plus, DAL QB Dak Prescott will certainly be under more pressure from the NO D-LINE than he was from MIA’s D-LINE. L9 NO vs DAL, NO 6-5 SU & 5-4 ATS. NO 4-1 ATS L5 as a HOME DOG. NO 5-6-1 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. NO 24-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NO 24-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 11-1 ATS vs .666>conf opp. NO 8-0 ATS L8 off SU DOG win. NO 13-10 ATS on SNF. NO 8-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NO 11-4 ATS w/rev on SNF. DAL 8-3-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 33-18 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DAL 29-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 21-5-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 3-10-1 ATS L14 vs NFC SOUTH. DAL 0-11-1 ATS as a FAV vs 666>conf opp. DAL 14-10-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 0-9-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs 666> conf opp. DAL 1-9 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 14-16 ATS AWAY In SNF. Believe it or not but there is a little revenge and payback that NO HC Sean Payton would like to give DAL after stymied NO 13-10, on a TNF game in late Novemeber 2018. NO is a little better prepared this time around believe it or not because the game is much more wide open with a scrambler like Teddy Bridgewater. I like the NO with the points here as this game will go down to the wire and I like NO getting points. I think they could win outright.
THE PICK: NO+2 ½ 5 STARS
Monday September 30th, 2019 8:15pm
Cincinnati Bengals (0-3), (2-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS CINNCY+4
LW, CINNCY played tight @BUFF and actually had the lead until BUFF put together a drive at the end of the game that won it outright. But, I liked CINNCY+6 ½ because I felt BUFF wasn’t that good to be FAV by so many points. But this week, CINNCY & QB Andy Dalton have never been good on PRIMETIME. Dalton is 8-8-2 ATS in PRIMETIME. He has been average. Maybe the bright lights scare Andy, I don’t know. CINNCY has been close this season but no cigar. They were blown out 1x and close 2x. LW, PITT went back & forth with SF. SF had 5 turnovers and PITT still couldn’t win. PITT had 2 turnovers of their own. PITT QB Mason Rudolph is getting the kinks out but the running game needs to do a better job. I liked SF laying 6 ½ because PITT looked hapless but SF QB Jimmy G tried being cute and he almost gave the game to PITT. Most of the players on both teams know each other well so there are no surprises here. L12 PITT(H) vs CINNCY, PITT 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS. L17 PITT vs CINNCY, FAV 9-7-1 ATS. L14 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS. L17 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 11-5-1 ATS. PITT 5-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. PITT 17-34 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 22-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PITT 5-6 ATS L11 on MNF. PITT 13-7 ATS on MNF. CINNCY 8-3-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CINNCY 15-22 ATS vs AFC NORTH in SEPT. CINNCY 21-23 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CINNCY 4-9 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses. CINNCY 6-2-1 ATS as a DOG 2>pts in 2nd of BB RG’s. CINNCY 7-0 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 4-9 ATS as a RD on MNF. Both teams are desperate for a win here. For PITT, other receivers need to step up besides Schuster. RB James Connor needs to do a better job. If others step up, QB Mason Rudolph will have an easier situation. For CINNCY, WRs Tyler Boyd & John Ross have been FAVS for Dalton while AJ Green is out but the running game has been non-existent. Considering how Dalton plays in PRIMETIME and PITT is HOME in desperation for a win, I like PITT here. Neither one of these teams is making the playoffs but, this is a tough AFC NORTH matchup.
THE PICK: PITT-4 3 STARS