2019 NFL WEEK 5
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 5 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 3rd, 2019 8:20pm
LA Rams (3-1), (2-1-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-0-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS LAR+1 ½
LW, LAR took it on the chin. They were laying 9 ½ @HOME to TB. Everyone thought they should win easy. I liked TB plus the points because I felt that the TB OFF could give the LAR DEF a run for the money. Plus, the LAR OFF has been stagnated and not playing that explosive football that they were playing in 2018. I was right on both counts. The week before, they didn’t look poised when they played @CLEVE on SNF and they were very lucky in the end that CLEVE didn’t make the right calls to tie the game. LW, SEA went into ARZ and took care of business. After they lost the week before @HOME to NO, they were ready to get back on track with a big win @ARZ. It wasn’t even close as SEA built a 20-3 halftime lead and ARZ was playing catchup the whole game. SEA was able to rush for over 100 yds as well which kept the ARZ DEF on their toes. SEA DE Jadeveon Clowney even got in the act with a PICK6, his 1st INT of his career. But, this week, this will be a tough game because LAR are coming off a loss and looking to bounceback. Some are saying that they have a SuperBowl hangover as did ATL after their loss but, LAR HC Sean McVay is a smart guy who has so far handled HC duties very well. He certainly will make some adjustments this week for his game with SEA. The RAMS had to play catchup after TB started out with a 21-0 lead and the run game for LAR went out of the window. LAR made in close in the 4th qtr closing the gap to five points but never got closer. L12 LAR @ SEA, SEA 9-3 SUATS. L24 LAR vs SEA, SEA 15-9 SUATS. L20 LAR vs SEA, HOME 13-7 ATS. LAR 3-8 ATS on TNF. LAR 7-8 ATS AWAY on TNF. LAR 5-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. LAR 25-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 32-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 20-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. LAR 22-19 ATS L41 as a RD. LAR 8-1 ATS in gms 5-8 after allowing 35>pts vs .500<opp. SEA 9-0 ATS L9 on TNF. SEA 16-8 ATS @HOME on TNF. SEA 11-9 ATS vs DIV on TNF. SEA 18-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 19-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 19-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. Yes, SEA does play very well on TNF but, LAR is in a bounceback mode and this game should not be a blowout by either team. The SEA secondary is vulnerable. LAR #4 PASS OFF vs SEA #16 PASS DEF. The key for SEA is always that QB Russell Wilson has time to throw the ball and find that open receiver. If LAR can establish pressure on Wilson early, they can control this game. These two teams know each other very well. I see it going down to the wire and being decided by a fg. Take LAR & the points.
THE PICK: LAR+1 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 6th, 2019 1:00pm
Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1), (2-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-4), (2-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS ARZ+3 ½
LW, ARZ was playing catchup @HOME vs SEA. SEA streaked out to a 20-3 lead and ARZ never even got close. Maybe the critics were right about Kyler Murray. In four games, ARZ hasn’t won but has tied once. He has thrown 4td, 4INTS and been sacked 20x. What looked like a promising start has turned into a lost season. Something has to change for ARZ. They have been blown out the last two games. LW, on MNF, CINNCY’s only score was off a PITT fumble that turned into 3pts. CINNCY lost 27-3. They couldn’t get anything going and the run game went nowhere. They lost WR John Ross in the 3rd qtr to a shoulder injury and WR AJ Green is still out while he recovers from his ankle surgery. CINNCY QB Andy Dalton was sacked 8x by PITT on MNF. CINNCY was playing catchup the whole night and couldn’t get near the PITT endzone. ARZ has playmakers on OFF & DEF and they should get going for this one because the O-LINE for CINNCY is not that good. CINNCY QB Andy Dalton has already been sacked 19x. Last year in eleven games he was only sacked 21x. Kyler Murray needs to learn to take what the DEF gives him. Dalton is just plain bad and is on a team that is just really bad. Neither of these teams is going anywhere and this could be one of those ugly sloppy games. L3 ARZ vs CINNCY, ARZ 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS. ARZ 17-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 31-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 12-7 ATS as a DOG vs <500opp. ARZ 11-2-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. CINNCY 21-32-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 18-27-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 14-12-1 ATS after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 14-4 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 6-6 ATS L12 after PITT. CINNCY 1-8 ATS as a FAV <7pts off DD ATS loss. Neither one of these teams can stop anyone CINNCY #24 TOT DEF & ARZ #31 TOT DEF. But we’ll see. Both of these teams are desperate for a win and this game could turn into one of those ugly shootouts. In an ugly shootout it could go down to the wire and a fg could go either way. I like the points here because they are both bad and I don’t see either team being blownout.
THE PICK: ARZ+3 ½ 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS BUFF+3
LW, BUFF held NE OFF in check. But, it was a combination of Brady making some bad throws and BUFF DEF making plays. BUFF QB Josh Allen was knocked out of the game and Matt Barkley came in. He is very familiar with the BUFF OFF but couldn’t get anything going because the NE DEF is just that good. BUFF covered because they were +7 but lost SU, 16-10. BUFF RB Frank Gore rushed for 109 yds & still looks good and can carry the rushing chores but BUFF has to get some scoring going. Against NE that was BUFF’s first big test. LW, TENN got out to 24-7 lead at ATL and never looked back. Considering that the ATL DEF is pretty bad it was a field day for TENN. TENN rushed for 138 yds with RB Derrick Henry rushing for 100 yds. TENN DEF forced a Matt Ryan fumble and sacked him 5x. BUFF DEF has gotten much better under HC Sean McDermott but the OFF needs to be more disciplined. BUFF DEF will look to put pressure on TEN QB Marcus Mariota. In the past, Mariota has shown that if he is pressured he will make mistakes. L6 BUFF vs TENN, TENN 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS. BUFF 5-6-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. BUFF 31-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. BUFF 28-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 11-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts. BUFF 7-12 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 1-9 ATS as a non-div RD 3<pts. TENN 29-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 27-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TENN 3-18 ATS off DD SU win. TENN DE/LB Cameron Wake who suffered a hamstring injury in the game @ATL is questionable. BUFF QB Josh Allen who took a big hit during the game and suffered a concussion is questionable but, will probably sit out this game and Barkley will start. BUFF is on a bounceback & TENN is coming off a nice win. BUFF #2 TOT DEF w/#4 PASS DEF & #7 RUSH DEF. TENN OFF will have their work cut out for them. As a DOG, BUFF is 2-0 ATS and TENN as a FAV is 0-2 ATS. This will be a low scoring game and a tight one at that and the points going BUFF’s way is why they are the pick here.
THE PICK: BUFF+3 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Oakland Raiders (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS (London) OAK+4 ½
LW, OAK played a nice game @INDY. I liked OAK+7 because I felt it was ridiculous to have INDY as a FAV by so much. When did INDY become so good? OAK needed a good game after looking very bad in two games vs KC & MINN. There are some talented guys on OAK but they are surrounded by very bad players. OAK RB Josh Jacobs did have a decent game vs INDY and the OAK DEF was able to keep INDY RB Marlon Mack & INDY QB Jacoby Brisett in check. LB Vontaze Burfict was ejected for a hit and suspended for the rest of the season. He is appealing but certainly will not be available for this game. OAK played very well and had INDY playing catchup the whole game. Why can’t they play like that all the time? LW, CHI kept MINN in check all game. They sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 6x and forced a fumble. They kept MINN RB Dalvin Cook to 35 yds. MINN scored 1td late in the 4th qtr and missed the 2pt conversion. But it was too little too late. CHI DEF kept MINN out of the endzone for most of the game. CHI #5 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky was knocked out of the game with a torn labrum and dislocated left shoulder. Chase Daniels came in and played decent but most importantly didn’t turn the ball over. He will be the starter for at least two more games while Trubisky recovers. Daniels has been with CHI for a couple of years so he knows the OFF. L3 CHI vs OAK, CHI 2-1 SUATS. CHI 12-24 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 29-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 4-5 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 10-4 ATS L14 non-conf RG’s. CHI 5-7 ATS L12 off BB SU wins vs conf opp. CHI 5-0 ATS L5 vs opp off SU DOG win. OAK 6-10-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. OAK 34-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. OAK 24-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. LY, in London, OAK was blown out by SEA 27-3. OAK 4-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. OAK 4-11 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. OAK 1-11-2 ATS L14 vs NFC. OAK 2-7 ATS off SU DOG win. Chase Daniels can lead the CHI team because he is a scrambler and is not afraid to take off. CHI RB David Montgomery is working his way into the OFF better each week. CHI 7-4-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. CHI DEF already has 17 sacks & 4INTS. DE/LB Khalil Mack has certainly upgraded this DEF since the beginning of the 2018 campaign. Do you think he is psyched up for this game considering OAK wouldn’t re-sign him and then traded him at the start of the 2018 season? I think he would like to show OAK what they’re missing. OAK is still working through a lot of things on OFF but will be no match for the CHI DEF. Lay the points here as CHI takes care of business in London.
THE PICK: CHI-4 ½ 5 STARS
TB Bucs (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ NO Saints (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS TB+3 ½
LW, I loved TB +9 ½ @LAR. I felt very strongly that after TB lost that game @HOME vs NYG the way that they did, that TB needed to get the ship back on course. TB HC Bruce Arians is known as the QB whisperer and under him QB Jameis Winston has been playing better. He had a bad wk 1 but other than that, he is looking improved. The OFF for TB is solid and has been shown that they can move up & down the field and put up points. So against LAR which haven’t been playing as well as in 2018, I felt it was a good pick. I hope you folks made money on this pick. TB put up a lot of points vs LAR and yeah even DT Ndamukong Suh made a late game appearance with a fumble return for a td. This guy disappears in games and this season is no exception but even I was surprised to see him contributing late in a game. Hence, TB won outright @LAR. LW, NO @HOME on SNF getting points vs DAL was a good pick too because the DEF for NO has been playing well and they were looking for a little revenge after they lost last year at DAL. The NO DEF shut down DAL RB Ezekial Elliott and made DAL QB Dak Prescott make throws. When under that kind of pressure Dak doesn’t do well. NO won in a tight game going down to the wire like I predicted and now they face a TB team that looks like they are suddenly on the rise. NO QB Teddy Bridgewater played decent enough to win and the NO DEF forced two DAL fumbles & 1 Dak Prescott INT. However, these two teams know each other and there is no love lost between them. TB 5-10-2 ATS L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. L12 TB & NO, TB 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS. L12 TB vs NO, HOME 7-5 ATS. TB 19-31-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 23-33-2 as a DOG in OCT. TB 18-21 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. TB 9-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG after scoring 35>pts. TB 8-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs >500 opp. TB 2-5 ATS L7 off DD SU win. TB 1-12 ATS as a ROAD DOG in gms 5-8 vs 500>opp off ATS & BB SU wins. NO 6-5-1 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. NO 29-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 34-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 14-24 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. NO 33-13-1 ATS after BB SUATS wins under HC Sean Payton. NO 9-0 ATS L9 after SU DOG win. TB has always given NO trouble in the DOME. Even when TB was really bad, it seemed like they would get up for this game. These two teams know each other and Jameis is not intimidated by NO. This will be a good game and I like the points here and they have a good shot at an upset if they don’t turn the ball over. Winston has to take what the NO DEF gives him. The NO secondary can be attacked if you know where to look. TB WR Chris Godwin is probable with a hip injury but will most likely play in this game. He had a big game vs LAR. TB WR Mike Evans always gives NO matchup problems. NO DE Cameron Jordan is nursing a calf injury and is questionable for this game. If he is out that is a big hole for NO. Take the points here because it should be a close game.
THE PICK: TB+3 ½ 5 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ NY Giants (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS NYG+4 ½
Ok, so NYG beat up on the hapless WASH REDSKINS, so what. WASH is really bad and I felt that they were in need of some kind of bounceback game after getting embarrassed on MNF @HOME to CHI. But, they continued their incompetence & bad play on the ROAD @NYG. WASH QB Case Keenum was benched during the game and Dwayne Haskins was thrown into the mix. NYG took advantage of it and won the game convincingly. However, NYG QB Daniel Jones came back down to earth with 2INTS against a WASH DEF that at times looks like a bunch of confused rookies. But the NYG running game and the NYG DEF were the stars of this game. NYG rushed for 164 yards & 1td and the NYG DEF had 4INTS, including 2INTS by CB Janoris Jenkins. NYG shouldn’t celebrate too much because now they play a pissed off MINN team. LW, MINN lost @CHI. MINN QB Kirk Cousins was inconsistent no matter what his stats may look like. He didn’t make the passes that mattered most and was called out by his receiver, Adam Thielen. The CHI DEF cut down any attempt by MINN to score. MINN settled for a td so late in a 16-6 loss that it did not matter. I liked CHI -2 in this game because the CHI is very tough defensively and has shown in 2019 not to give up much, period. I knew that Cousins would fold under pressure and he did. He was sacked 6x & had 1 lost fumble. After being called out, look for Cousins to have a much better game. MINN RB Dalvin Cook was held to 35 yds rushing by CHI. Also look for him to have a better week vs NYG. L9 MINN vs NYG, MINN 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS incl, MINN & NYG, MINN 2-1 SUATS. MINN 31-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 25-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 8-3 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB RG’s. MINN 10-4 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. NYG 7-9 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. NYG 27-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 26-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 8-2 ATS L10 after WASH. NYG 4-7 ATS before TNF. NYG 11-3 ATS after DIV HG. NYG 14-0-1 ATS L15 off DIV HOME win vs non-div opp. NYG get WR Golden Tate off suspension for PEDs. He will add to their receiver corps but had been playing with Manning in training camp. Don’t expect Tate to be fabulous the first game back and with a different QB in Daniel Jones. This is a big test for QB Daniel Jones because he is now facing a much better DEF with MINN than he did with WASH or even TB. NYG TE Evan Engram has been the favorite target for NYG QBs but MINN has to keep an eye on this guy because he is very good. NYG RB Wayne Gallman, filling in for Saquon Barkley, played decent vs WASH but don’t expect that vs MINN. MINN #11 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here as MINN is on a bounceback and NYG comes back down to earth.
THE PICK: MINN-4 ½ 5 STARS
NY Jets (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS NYJ+13 ½
LW, PHILLY had a nice win on TNF @GB. However, GB had two chances in the redzone they didn’t score, not because PHILLY DEF was so good but, because GB OFF was incompetent. A dropped pass and suspect play selection by GB helped PHILLY with a needed win. PHILLY played toe-to-toe with GB in this one because they knew they needed a win after two straight losses. RBs Jordan Howard & Miles Sanders ran all over GB with QB Carson Wentz mixing it up. NYJ are coming off a bye. They needed it or otherwise they would be 0-4. Before the bye they were @NE where they were losing 30-0 and were +22 ½ . Well if it weren’t for NE letting up and a punt fumble for a td and a PICK6 off a 3rd string QB, it would have been a complete wash but JETS made the final score respectable, 30-14. That said, Luke Falk is still the QB for NYJ. He is not that good and don’t expect much from him either. LB CJ Mosley is doubtful for this game with a groin injury that he sustained in wk 1. Without him, the DEF can’t really stop anyone. PHILLY 30-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 39-36 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 16-5 ATS L21 vs non-conf opp. PHILLY 7-3 ATS w/rest vs 600<opp. NYJ 5-7 ATS since 2007 after their bye. NYJ 27-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 30-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 14-12-1 ATS L27 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 1-11 ATS AWAY vs non-conf opp off SU win. NYJ 0-8 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG vs opp off SU win. PHILLY has to approach this game like NYJ is a good team otherwise they will play badly. PHILLY has to use their weapons to exploit the DEF. PHILLY DEF has to put pressure on Falk all game and top NYJ from developing a run game. NYJ are 0-11 SU all time vs PHILLY. L3 PHILLY vs NYJ, PHILLY 3-0 SUATS. NYJ will not get a win here and PHILLY should mix up the OFF for an old fashioned beat down. PHILLY WRs Nelson Agholor & Alshon Jeffery should see plenty of passes in this game. Throw in some TE Zach Ertz and it will get crazy. PHILLY WR DeSean Jackson is still questionable with an abdominal strain but, if he was available it would be like men vs boys. Luke Falk is the QB and PHILLY should throw the kitchen sink at this guy and not let up. NYJ #28 RUSH OFF vs PHILLY #4 RUSH DEF. It will all be on Falk’s shoulders. Lay the points here as you can turn your sets off early, I hope.
THE PICK: PHILLY-13 ½ 5 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS PITT+3
On MNF, PITT was desperate for a win and they stopped CINNCY cold in PITT 27-3. The only points allowed by PITT was after a turnover committed by PITT. Otherwise it would have been a shutout. PITT QB Mason Rudolph had a decent game, throwing for 2tds and not turning the ball over. PITT also ran the wildcat with some success. CINNCY couldn’t get anything going against a PITT DEF that finally played a good game. However, CINNCY OFF was without WR AJ Green & WR John Ross left in the 3rd qtr with a shoulder injury. PITT DEF also sacked CINNCY QB Andy Dalton 8x. PITT OFF is very different then it was with Bell & Brown and they have had to improvise. BALT got slammed by CLEVE in BALT. After the loss @KC by less than a td a week earlier I figured some HOME COOKING for BALT would do the trick vs CLEVE. BALT was slammed 40-25. This game was CLEVE 10-7 at the half and actually tied at 10 in the 3rd qtr. So what happened to BALT? BALT couldn’t stop CLEVE RB Nick Chubb who rushed for 165 yds on 20 carries and 3tds. CLEVE mixed up their OFF nicely and had BALT guessing all the time. They only sacked Mayfield 1x and he completed 20 out of 30 passes. CLEVE turned two of BALT’s turnovers into 14 points. BALT had 3 total turnovers. These two teams know each other very well and have had some epic battles. L12 BALT @PITT, BALT 5-7 SU but 7-4-1 ATS. L23 BALT vs PITT, BALT 12-10-1 ATS. L16 BALT vs PITT, BALT 9-6 ATS 1 NL. L25 BALT vs PITT, DOG 14-8-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. L22 BALT vs PITT, ROAD 15-6-1 ATS. BALT 6-6 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 27-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 25-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 15-16 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 8-4 ATS after CLEVE. BALT 1-9 ATS in gms 5-8 off div gm vs <500 opp. PITT 8-3-1 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. PITT 2-3 ATS L5 as a HOME DOG. PITT 37-18 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 29-15 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. PITT 25-10 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 1-6 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 4-16 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. BALT QB Lamar Jackson must show that he can bounce back after a bad game. Might as well be against PITT. BALT will make some adjustments. PITT is coming off a blowout victory on MNF and BALT is coming off two straight losses. BALT can ill afford to lose three straight in an all of a sudden tight AFC NORTH race. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs PITT #22 RUSH DEF. Lay the pints here BALT resurrects the ship and takes charge of the division with a nice win.
THE PICK: BALT-3 5 STARS
NE Patriots (4-0), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Washington Redskins (0-4), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS WASH+15
LW, I figured that WASH would at least make a better effort vs NYG after being embarrassed @HOME on MNF vs CHI. I was wrong because there are so many things wrong with WASH, you don’t know where to start. WASH QB Case Keenum was benched during the game @NYG because he was playing so poorly. So in comes QB Dwayne Haskins who is basically thrown into the fire and does poorly as well. Haskins should be a decent QB in the future but, throwing him in like HC Jay Gruden did was not going to help Haskins grow into the position. Needless to say, NYG beat WASH 24-3 and WASH looks worse now then they did earlier in the season. In four games, WASH QBs have been sacked 9x, have thrown 7INTS & fumbled 3x. LW, NE was leading 13-0 @BUFF when NE was driving & NE QB Tom Brady threw an INT in the endzone. It was clearly a bad pass and had NE scored a td in that drive, it would have been 20-0 and BUFF would have probably been out of it. I liked NE-7 and that INT was a game changer because it gave BUFF life. Anyway, WASH #28 TOT OFF vs NE #1 TOT DEF. The DEF for NE has been making plays all over. The NE DEF has 10INTS & 18 sacks. DB Devin McCourty has 4INTS. NE DEF knocked out BUFF QB Josh Allen and then contained QB Matt Barkley. NE held on for the win 16-10 but didn’t cover. Brady had one of his worst days as a PRO but, he usually corrects himself and has a great next game. Look out WASH, as NE HC Bill Belichick treats this game as a loss. L3 NE vs WASH, NE 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. NE 7-9 ATS L16 in 2nd of BB RG’s. NE 34-20-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 45-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 16-13-2 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. NE 9-11-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 14-1 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. NE 1-5 ATS AWAY aft allowing 10<pts. NE 1-6 ATS AWAY off div ROAD gm vs .<500 opp. NE 21-25-1 ATS as a FAV 11>pts. NE 8-3 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 12-1 ATS off SU wins vs non-div opp off SU loss. NE 7-0 ATS in gms 5-8 vs NFC opp. WASH 9-8 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. WASH 29-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 29-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 7-11-1 ATS L19 aft NYG. WASH 8-3 ATS as a HD vs 400>opp. WASH 5-4 ATS L9 off BB SU losses. WASH 1-10 ATS in gms 5-8 as a a DOG off BB SU losses vs 500>non-div. WASH 8-1 ATS L9 off DD ATS loss. Yes, NE will come out blazing and look to get their OFF back on track. The DEF has been doing a great job and should continue to do so. WASH RB Adrian Peterson has not been able to get on track because the WASH O-LINE has not been doing their job and has been overwhelmed. The WASH secondary has been terrible as well and CB Josh Norman has not been the guy that was ALL-PRO in CAR. He will probably be released after this season. Lay the points here as NE will look to get things rolling early and often. Also, look for the NE DEF to make some great plays and create turnovers. A blowout is brewing here. Lay the points.
THE PICK: NE-15 5 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (2-2), (2-1-1) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-1-1) ATS JAGS+3 ½
LW, JAGS went to DEN & took care of business but, it wasn’t easy. DEN streaked out to a 17-3 lead and JAGS had to play catchup before taking the lead 23-17 in the 4th qtr. DEN finally woke up and JAGS needed a fg with :00 on the clock to win. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette rushed for 225 yds. So much for DEN DEF. I liked JAGS+3 because I knew JAGS would keep it close even if they lost. JAGS came away with the victory and JAGS QB Gardner Minshew had another fine game with no turnovers. Minshew has been doing a nice job and a productive Fournette takes a lot of pressure off of Minshew. LW, CAR was at HOU. CAR was getting +4 and I liked them because, as you know, I don’t care too much for HOU HC Bill O’Brien. He can’t get out of his own way. This was a close game throughout as I thought it would be and CAR was making plays to stop HOU from driving. CAR QB Kyle Allen has been doing the job in place of the injured Cam Newton and he is 2-0 this season. However, he had 3 lost fumbles LW vs HOU that did lead to1 HOU td. He needs to hold onto the ball better when pressure is coming. On the other side, the CAR DEF sacked HOU QB Deshaun Watson 6x. RB Christian McCaffrey is one man wrecking crew but, there will be games that he can’t do it alone and CAR will have gone to the well one too many times. Against HOU McCaffrey touched the ball 37x while others touched the ball 15x. JAGS need to shadow him. L3 CAR vs JAGS, CAR 2-1 SUATS. JAGS 8-7 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. JAGS 29-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 25-23 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 4-24 SU & 7-21 ATS L28 vs NFC. JAGS 1-10 ATS as a non-conf DOG 3>pts. JAGS 2-13 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 2-10 ATS in gms 5-8 off non-div vs NFC opp. CAR 18-26 ATS as a FV in OCT. CAR 22-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 18-21-2 ATS L41 as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 5-6-1 ATS L12 before TB. This should be a close game because these two teams are scroungers. I don’t see this game being a blow out by either team and I would be surprised if that were to happen. I like the points here because it will be a very close game and it could come down to a fg at the end. BY the way, JAGS CB Jalen Ramsey is still with the team and is playing. CAR #24 RUSH DEF. JAGS should run the ball as much as possible but don’t make it so obvious. Take the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+3 ½ 3 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS ATL+5
LW, ATL fell behind @HOME vs TENN, 24-7 and never recovered. Their DEF is pretty bad and to get some help in the secondary they acquired S Johnathan Cyprien from PHILLY for LB Duke Riley, How much Cyprien helps out is anyone’s guess. The run game for ATL was stymied by TENN for 58 yds. ATL QB Matt Ryan was sacked 5x. Ryan threw 53x because ATL was playing catchup most of the game after a 7-7 tie early in the game. LW, HOU was held in check @HOME by CAR. HOU QB Deshaun Watson was sacked 6x. The run game did take off for HOU and they did rush for 136 yds. HOU RB Carlos Hyde is finding his groove with HOU even though the O-LINE remains a problem. Newly acquired HOU WR Kenny Stills injured his hamstring during the game and didn’t return. He is questionable for this game. Watson needs to take whatever the DEF gives him. He can’t win the game on every play. The DEF for HOU is one of their key points. Since their first game @NO, the HOU DEF has gotten better at stopping scoring. Two weeks ago, they created turnovers @LAC that changed the game for HOU. That’s what they need to do this week. Against CAR, they forced 3 fumbles from CAR QB Kyle Allen with one of them resulting in a td. The HOU DEF needs to do this every week. L3 ATL vs HOU, ATL 1-2 SUATS. However, HOME is 3-0 SUATS. HOU 6-5 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB HG’s. HOU 15-17-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 12-18-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 7-2 ATS L9 after scoring 10<pts. HOU 10-8 ATS as a HF 4>pts. HOU 6-3 ATS as a non-div HF 4>pts. HOU 20-8-2 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs 600<opp. HOU 0-5 ATS L% vs non-conf opp off SU loss. ATL 8-6 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. ATL 30-20 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 34-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 5-14 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 8-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp. ATL 2-12 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU FAV loss vs 500>opp. ATL 8-0 after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp off SUATS loss. HOU is in a bounceback situation and with HC Bill O’Brien when the team has been decent, HOU has been good in the bounceback situation. HOU 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS as a FAV off a loss of >4pts under HC Bill O’Brien. ATL is very bad and should be 0-4 except for a gift. ATL had some injuries to their O-LINE LW vs TENN. RG Jamon Brown suffered a concussion so he’ll probably be out. OL Wes Schweitzer who lost his starting job fills in for Brown. C Alex Mack is also questionable for this game with an elbow injury. I like HOU laying the points because they don’t have to travel off their loss and can stay focused on what needs to be improved upon. ATL is traveling after two losses and is probably not feeling very up for this game. HOU should win by a td. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-5 5 STARS
Sunday October 6th, 2019 4:00pm
Denver Broncos (0-4), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (2-2), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS DEN+6 ½
DEN didn’t just lose the game LW @HOME vs JAGS, they also lost DE Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and he will be out the rest of the season. The DEN DEF has been playing very poorly and that they have 5 sacks & 0INTS through 4 games. Without Chubb opposing O-LINEs can concentrate on LB Von Miller and pick this DEF apart. I liked JAGS LW+3 @DEN because JAGS are playing better with QB Minshew & DEN QB Joe Flacco is playing like Average Joe. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette ran for 225 yds! Where is the DEN DEF? DEN was leading 17-3 but let JAGS come back and actually take the lead. JAGS kicked a fg with :00 to win the game outright. There are a lot of things wrong with DEN on both sides of the ball. LW, LAC did what they had to do @MIA. They were laying 15 ½ @MIA but covered 30-10. MIA is just terrible and that was w/o RB Melvin Gordon. This week Gordon will be playing and looking to make sure that everyone sees that he is a main contributor on the team and worthy of a bigger contract. Don’t be surprised if LAC rushes the ball over 30x with Austin Ekeler & Troymaine Pope seeing significant touches. This will certainly take pressure off of QB Philip Rivers. DEN #30 RUSH DEF. Rivers had a decent game @MIA and spread the ball around nicely but that was MIA. DEN DEF is a little better but Rivers & CO should be able to take them apart. L12 LAC(H) vs DEN, DEN 7-5 SUATS. L24 LAC vs DEN, ROAD 16-7-1 ATS. L24 LAC vs DEN, FAV 13-10-1 ATS. LAC 4-9 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. LAC 28-22 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 29-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 27-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LAC 10-1 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off SU FAV loss. DEN 23-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 23-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 20-16 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 13-9 ATS L22 div RG’s. DEN 3-6 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. DEN QB Joe Flacco has already been sacked 11x which tells you that the O-LINE is not doing their job. LAC #14 RUSH DEF. This says that Flacco will have to make plays which as of late he has been unable to do. LAC DEF will be waiting. Even though DEN is on a bounceback and lost a game in the final seconds, the Chubb injury is too big to overcome. Plus, the fact that DEN has been playing lackluster anyway, they do not have the personnel to matchup with LAC. Also, on LAC DEF, don’t be surprised if DE Joey Bosa & DE Melvin Ingram both have sacks and maybe a couple of strip sacks. The O-LINE for DEN has been disastrous. Lay the points here as LAC gets rolling.
THE PICK: LAC-6 ½ 5 STARS
GB Packers (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS GB+3 ½
LW, on TNF GB had two chances with 1st & goal and didn’t score. One was an INT & the other was a dropped pass. If GB scores a td on both drives, it’s a different ball game. GB QB Aaron Rodgers doesn’t like to get disappointed and he was driving down the field on the PHILLY DEF. but in the redzone it was a different story. GB RB Jamaal Williams was injured on the first play from scrimmage and that hampered GB’s run game all night. RB Aaron Jones has to find a way to get it done. This was a hard fought game and GB had plenty of chances to put PHILLY away but, PHILLY was fighting and never backed down. In the end, the mistakes in the redzone cost GB the game. On SNF DAL was @NO. I liked NO as the HD to win outright because I knew DAL would underestimate NO QB Teddy Bridgewater. DAL also underestimated the NO DEF which smothered the DAL OFF. It was a close game and NO DEF stopped DAL RB Ezekial Elliott in his tracks. Elliott rushed for 35 yds. This in turn puts much more pressure on DAL QB Dak Prescott who couldn’t lead the charge. L9 GB vs DAL, GB 6-3 SUATS. GB 20-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. GB 30-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 8-3 ATS before MNF. GB 9-7 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs 666>opp. GB 11-3 ATS w/rest. GB 5-1 ATS after TNF. DAL 31-22 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 38-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 0-12-1 TAS as a FAV vs 666>conf opp. DAL 0-10-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs 666> conf opp. DAL 2-22-1 ATS @HOME following a SU conf loss. DAL 1-18 ATS as a FAV @HOME after a SU conf loss. Plan of attack for GB is stopping RB Ezekial Elliott and putting it all on QB Dak Prescott. He gets nervous and makes mistakes. Rodgers loves playing DAL, he seems to thrive on it. GB needs to get some kind of run game going to keep the DAL DEF guessing. GB WR Devante Adams is questionable for this game after suffering a turf toe in the game vs PHILLY. Other guys must step up if Adams is not available. Look for GB TE Jimmy Graham to be a big part of the GB OFF. DAL DEF has had problems with Big Time opposing TEs. Both of these teams are coming off losses so there will be adjustments to their game plans. GB has had a little more rest going into this game having played on TNF. Considering how Rodgers has played DAL in the past, I like GB with the points because it usually is a close game and the points will greatly help.
THE PICK: GB+3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 6th, 2019 8:20pm
Indianapolis Colts (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY (2-0) ATS @ KC Chiefs (4-0), (2-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS INDY+11
LW, KC got into a wild one @DET. DET got out to a 10-0 lead before KC woke up and tied the game. Then the lead went back & forth throughout the game and KC put a drive in the end to score a td and win but w/o the cover. KC QB Pat Mahomes didn’t pass for a td but, he also didn’t turn the ball over. However, KC did have 3 fumbles, one resulting in a td by DET. This was a sloppy game for both KC & DET as there were four straight possessions that resulted in four fumbles in the 3rd qtr. KC will right that ship. LW, INDY lost @HOEM to OAK. INDY was a heavy FAV and I liked OAK to win outright. INDY is not playing so well that they deserve to be a heavy FAV, sorry. They did beat TENN which was a nice win but they beat ATL who has no DEF. Then they came out lame @HOME vs OAK, that was needing a win very badly and ate up the INDY secondary. OAK QB Derek Carr threw 2tds and the OAK runners rushed for 188 yds. How much will RB LeSean McCoy rush against this group? KC #2 TOT OFF vs INDY # #16 TOT DEF. INDY WR TY Hilton who the COLTS desperately need has missed the last two games and is questionable for this game with an injured quadriceps. INDY RB Marlon Mack is also nursing an ankle injury but, he is probable. INDY certainly needs him. KC has certainly been getting sacks as nine different defenders have contributed to the sack total. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett has been playing better than in the past. He has 10tds, 2INTS and has been sacked only 6x. But this week he may be challenged if Mack & Hilton are out. KC is coming off a game where they barely survived and they certainly will make adjustments. KC DEF is still suspect at #30 TOT DEF. But, they seem to make plays when they need it most. L7 INDY vs KC, KC 3-4 SU but 4-3 ATS. AWAY team is 5-2 ATS. KC 6-5 ATS L11 in 1st of BB HG’s. KC 35-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 17-23 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 12-5 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 7-4 ATS on SNF vs opp off a loss. KC 11-6 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. KC 14-1 ATS in gms 5-8 @HOME vs 500>opp off SU loss. INDY 8-3-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. INDY 27-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 24-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 11-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. INDY 14-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. INDY 20-7 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 9-6 ATS L15 AWAY vs AFC WEST. INDY 9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. INDY has a lot of holes and to lose @HOME vs OAK and then go on the road is tough, especially against a high powered OFF. KC #1 PASS OFF vs INDY #13 PASS DEF. INDY is way too banged up on OFF to match wits with KC. Plus, the DEF for INDY couldn’t stop OAK LW, how are they going to stop the KC express? Lay the points here as INDY gets a show on SNF that was originally scheduled as a revenge game for INDY with Andrew Luck as the INDY QB after they were blown out in the playoffs last year.
THE PICK: KC-11 5 STARS
Monday October 7th, 2019 8:15pm
Cleveland Browns (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ SF 49ers (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS CLEVE+3 ½
LW, CLEVE & BALT looked like the game was going to be a chess match. With the score 10-10 in the 3rd qtr CLEVE broke away with 2tds and put BALT in catchup mode. The BALT DEF was shredded and CLEVE won the game 40-25. The game wasn’t even that close as BALT added a dummy td with :30 seconds left. CLEVE bounced back after almost tying the game @HOME vs LAR on SNF the week before. There CLEVE came up short after being 1st & goal very late in the 4th qtr and coming up empty. CLEVE lost 20-13. The fact that BALT lay down on DEF vs CLEVE after they played KC rather tight the week before was also in the minds of fans. But CLEVE left no stone unturned as CLEVE RB Nick Chubb rushed for 165 yds & 3tds. CLEVE ran all over BALT and Baker Mayfield passed for over 300 yds. Yeah but, can Mayfield stay consistent? BALT played a very sloppy game and CLEVE took advantage of it. CLEVE scored 2tds off BALT turnovers. BALT scored a td off a CLEVE turnover but really didn’t do much else. SF is coming off a bye and before that barely beat PITT in a sloppy game. SF 2-9-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. SF QB Jimmy G has looked mortal with 5TDS & 4INTS. In the game vs PITT, Jimmy had 2INTS & 1fumble. Both teams were sloppy and the game went back and forth. SF has a nice 1-2 punch at RB in Raheem Mostert & Matt Breida. CLEVE has to be careful of both these guys because either one can break a long run. TE George Kittle has seemed become a FAV target of Jimmy G and can almost catch everything. For SF to be successful, they can’t turn the ball over. For CLEVE, it is taking what the DEF gives them and putting pressure on Jimmy G. CLEVE 6-11 ATS L17 in 2nd of BB RG’s. CLEVE 15-22-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEVE 25-33-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEVE 6-14-1 ATS L21 vs NFC. CLEVE 3-11-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEVE 1-10 ATS off DD SU win. CLEVE 2-11 ATS off SUATS win vs 500>opp. CLEVE 0-6 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. SF 18-8 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. SF 39-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 12-2 ATS L14 on MNF. SF 3-12 ATS w/rest (Thurs, bye). SF 2-6-1 ATS L9 as a FAV. This game has the makings of a shootout as both QBS are known to be gunslingers. Take the points here as this game could go down to the wire.
THE PICK: CLEVE+3 ½ 3 STARS