2019 NFL WEEK 6
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 6 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
LW, there were three major upsets that no one saw coming. OAK beating CHI in London. That CHI DEF laid an egg in that one & CHI OFF was dominating. DEN, who was almost a td DOG on the road vs LAC. LAC was down so much in that game it was almost impossible to come back, which they didn’t. Then on SNF, INDY who was a BIG ROAD DOG & had a little revenge in mind for last year’s playoff loss, stifled the KC OFF all night. INDY looked like they were the FAV and KC the DOG. Also, Aaron Rodgers continued his dominance of DAL. This week two winless teams play each other, WASH vs MIA, so there will be one less winless team that has a chance for 0-16. Enjoy the games!
Thursday October 10th, 2019 8:20pm
NY Giants (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (5-0), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS NYG+16 ½
LW, NYG really didn’t have a chance vs a MINN team that was having internal squabbles. MINN needed to right their ship with a good game and they did it against NYG. In the process, NYG WR Sterling Shepard suffered his second concussion this season so you know he’ll be out of this game. NYG RB Wayne Gallman also suffered a concussion so he will also be out of this game too. RB Saquon Barkley who has been out because of a high ankle sprain vs TB will also be out of this game. That leaves RBs Jonathan Hilliman & Elijaa Penny as the go to guys for rushing. NYG QB Daniel Jones was sacked 4x and finally felt what it was like to play a real team after getting an easy win vs WASH and a comeback win vs a mediocre TB team. As for the NYG DEF, they did sack MINN QB Kirk Cousins 3x but he had a near perfect day only missing five passes and throwing 2tds with 0INTS. In the end MINN was just too tough & NYG lost by 18. LW, NE looked like they may have a problem @WASH. They were trailing 7-0 when they decided they had enough and scored 33 straight points for a 33-7 win. The NE DEF continued their assault with six sacks of WASH QB Colt McCoy, an INT & recovered fumb. Now NE takes on a NYG team missing some parts and with nothing to lose. However, NYG shouldn’t get too confident for this one. NE #1 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF & #3 RUSH DEF. So far, BUFF has been the biggest challenge for NE this season. NE QB Tom Brady will always remember that he lost those two SBs vs NYG, so he plays them especially tough. He may stay in to the very end even if the score is out of reach. L3 NE vs NYG, NE 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS. NE 33-28-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 46-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 24-9-3 ATS L36 (H) vs non-div. NE 3-0-1 ATS on TNF off non-div gm. NE 7-1 ATS L8 @HOME after allowing 10<pts. NE 22-25-1 ATS L48 as a FAV 11>pts. NE 17-12-3 ATS as a HF 7>pts. NE 9-3 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 8-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. NE 5-0 ATS 500> vs non div on TNF. NE 8-0 ATS in gms 5-8 vs NFC opp. NYG 34-18 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 26-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 7-4 ATS on TNF. NYG 5-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYG 9-3 ATS vs 333> non-conf opp. NYG 2-10 ATS L12 AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. The NE DEF will be revved up for NYG as this is always personal for Tom Brady & HC Bill Belichick. This is definitely a mismatch in terms of TNF but, it is good experience for NYG QB Daniel Jones. Also, doubtful for NYG, TE Evan Engram is dealing with a sprained MCL which he may sit on the side of caution. Brady has two games in a row with an INT in the redzone but I don’t see him getting the third in a row. Lay the points here as NE rolls.
THE PICK: NE-16 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 13th, 2019 9:30am (London)
Carolina Panthers (3-2), (3-1-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ TB Bucs (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS TB+2
LW, CAR was @HOME vs JAGS. CAR had the lead since the 1st qtr and JAGS were playing catchup all day. But it was close at the end. RB Christian McCaffrey is a one man wrecking crew. He rushed for 176 yds, 2tds on 19 carries & caught 6 passes for 61 yds & 1td. Can anyone stop Christian McCaffrey? CAR in total rushed for 285 yds. It didn’t hurt that JAGS QB Gardner Mishew had 3 lost fumbles, 2 of which led to 2 CAR tds. I liked JAGS in this game because I thought they would play it a little closer. But, when you have turnovers, unfortunately they eventually turn into points. LW, TB was in a showdown @NO. Unfortunately they let NO have their way in the 2nd half and TB was playing catchup to no avail and losing bigger than the spread. It also hurt that TB QB Jameis Winston was sacked 6x. He didn’t commit any turnovers but the DEF couldn’t stop NO in the 2nd half. TB WR Mike Evans was a non-factor in this game catching 0 passes but targeted 3x. CAR 5-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. TB 3-8 ATS, 1 no bye, since 2007 wk before their bye. L12 CAR @TB, CAR 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS. L24 CAR vs TB, FAV 13-11 ATS. L13 CAR vs TB, ROAD 9-4 ATS. CAR 30-19 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 19-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CAR 18-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. CAR 9-9 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC SOUTH since 2003. CAR 19-21-2 ATS as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 7-4 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 3-8 ATS as a FAV before bye week. CAR 1-9 ATS as DIV FAV off non-div gm. CAR 0-5 ATS as DIV FAV <6pts off non-div gm. TB 23-34-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 17-28-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 18-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. TB 14-25-2 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. TB 4-7 ATS L11 after NO. TB 7-6-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. TB 0-9 ATS as a DIV DOG vs opp w/revenge. TB 1-8 ATS off DIV RG vs 700<conf opp. This game is a revenge game for CAR for what TB did @CAR in the 2nd week of the season on TNF. It is difficult for a team to beat another 2x during the season and that game had an injured Cam Newton as the CAR QB. Kyle Allen is a confident guy who takes what the DEF gives him. He has been playing very well since coming in for Cam. No matter for CAR that the game is London because it is a road gm for them. TB QB Jameis Winston may want to be extra careful in this game. CAR #4 PASS DEF. This game is almost a PICK’EM game and CAR is playing well. RB Christian McCaffrey left this game a little banged up but should be ok for this game. Even though TB is on a bounceback here it is vs CAR who is looking for payback. Lay the two points.
THE PICK: CAR-2 5 STARS
Sunday October 13th, 2019 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (4-1), (2-3) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS CLEVE+1
LW on TNF, SEA got away with one. LAR missed a fg in the last ten seconds of the game that probably would have won it for LAR @ SEA. LAR K Greg Zuerlin who never misses, missed it and SEA won 30-29. SEA OFF played well but the secondary is suspect as I have said all season. The reason why is because this is not the “Legion of Boom” anymore and there are young guys in there that need more experience. SEA QB Russell Wilson had 4tds & 0INTS and SEA rushed for 167 yd behind RB Chris Carson who 118 yds. The OFF for SEA is humming but, the DEF needs tweaking. The DEF for SEA had no sacks and the PASS DEF gave up almost 400 yds. I liked LAR+1 ½ and LAR should have won outright. LW, on MNF, CLEVE was completely embarrassed @SF 31-3. It wasn’t even that close as SF’s 1st play from scrimmage was an 83yd run by SF RB Matt Breida. He wasn’t even touched. Turn your sets off there. Also, CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield went 8/22 with 0ts, 2INTS & 1 lost fumble. He was later replaced by QB Garrett Gilbert. Mayfield is playing like an over hype. He is making a lot of mistakes that a guy in college makes. In college you can get away with stuff because you are playing against inferior teams but, not in the NFL. Players make adjustments and Mayfield is not. Either he gets better or he will become a backup. SEA 8-8-1 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 25-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 19-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 2-5 SU & 2-3-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. SEA 2-6 ATS L8 after TNF. CLEVE 5-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. CLEVE 9-16-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. CLEVE 22-15-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEVE 25-34-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEVE 11-5 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEVE 1-11 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEVE 2-12 ATS as a HOME DOG vs 600>opp. CLEVE 1-8 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU loss vs 500>NFC opp. CLEV 1-8 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off HOME gm. Yes, this is a bounceback game for CLEVE but, the SEA OFF is just too good and CLEVE HC Freddie Kitchens is on a learning curve himself and will not know how to get things back on track right away. Maybe CLEVE is not as good as everyone thought and they are mire hype. Lay the point here as CLEVE plays better but not better enough. SEA continues to play well. SEA is also well rested having played on TNF while CLEVE is playing on a short week having played on MNF. This game has the makings of a shootout but SEA HC Pete Carroll is much better at this than CLEV HC Freddie Kitchens. SEA should run all day vs CLEVE. CLEVE #29 RUSH DEF vs SEA #12 RUSH OFF. This could be the matchup SEA likes.
THE PICK: SEA -1 5 STARS
Houston Texans (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ KC Chiefs (4-1), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS HOU+5
LW, KC was embarrassed on SNF @HOME by INDY, 19-13. INDY got a little revenge for their playoff loss last season @KC. The INDY DEF was able to sack KC QB Pat Mahomes 4x and keep the rushing game at 36 yds. Also, Mahomes got his ankle roughed up in the game so he may not be running around this game like he’s used to. After KC took a 10-7 lead in the 2nd qtr, INDY DEF just shutdown the KC OFF and didn’t let KC score except for a fg very late in the game. The KC DEF is pretty bad as INDY RB Marlon Mack rushed for 132 yds. KC DEF #25 w/#30 RUSH DEF. KC is lucky that the score wasn’t worse than it was because INDY only completed 18 passes. LW, HOU put up 53 points @HOME vs ATL. ATL has no DEF as I have said all along and HOU just went nuts. HOU QB Deshaun Watson threw for 426 yds & 5tds, 0INTS and was sacked 0x. For the first time that I can remember Watson wasn’t sacked. The run game combined for 166 yds and kept ATL DEF guessing all game. HOU WR Will Fuller had 217 yds receiving & 3tds. L8 HOU vs KC, HOU 4-4 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. HOU 8-4-2 ATS L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. HOU 13-16 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 16-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 2-7-1 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RG’s. HOU 0-7 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG off DD SUATS win. HOU 2-10 ATS in gms 5-8 when 500> as a DOG vs non div opp. KC 5-6 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB HG’s. KC 35-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 17-24 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 9-5 ATS L14 after an SU loss. KC 0-6 ATS as a non div FAV <9pts in 2nd of BB HG’s. KC 2-13 ATS as a FAV <9pts in 2nd of BB HG’s. Yes, KC will regroup but, their DEF is terrible and HOU needs to take advantage of it in every way. They need to pound RBs Carlos Hyde & Duke Johnson against the KC D-line until the KC D-LINE falls down. I think this game will be closer than the spread unless HOU HC Bill O’Brien finds a way to screw things up. HOU needs to keep the pressure on OFF & DEF so that KC is playing catchup. HOU QB Deshaun Watson needs to take what the KC DEF gives him. This should be an exciting game and could be a shootout that goes down to the wire. What worries me for HOU is HOU #25 PASS DEF vs KC #1 PASS OFF. Can HOU stop it? D-LINE for HOU needs to keep putting pressure on Mahomes. DE JJ Watt needs to get to Mahomes many times. I like the fact that HOU is getting more than a fg. HOU must play smart if they intend to beat KC coming off a bounceback. Take the points here.
THE PICK: HOU+5 3 STARS
Washington Redskins (0-5), (1-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (0-4), (0-4) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, WASH got another drubbing, this time by NE, 33-7. When WASH was leading 7-0 it looked like it might be a game but, the bottom fell out and NE scored 33 straight points. WASH QB Colt McCoy was sacked 6x & threw 1INT. NE was just toying with WASH. On MON, WASH HC Jay Gruden was fired. Assistant HC Bill Callahan was named interim HC and frankly shouldn’t want the job even if it is offered to him. WASH is stuck with guys who are underachievers. CB Josh Norman hasn’t lived up to the hype in his four seasons since signing for big money after being ALL-PRO @CAR. The O-LINE for WASH has given up 15 sacks in five games. Whatever QB WASH seems to start with, they can’t get anything right. MIA is coming off a bye and so far they have scored a total of 26 points in four games. MIA 7-4 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. Before their bye MIA tried to make a game with it with LAC @MIA and it was 10-10 but, the bottom fell out and it ended up being 30-10. MIA has been blownout in their four games and could be the first team to have had a perfect season coupled in with a winless season. WASH 3-2 ATS L5 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 23-20 ATS as a FAV in OCT. WASH 24-34 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 6-2 ATS L8 as a non-conf FAV. WASH 5-5 ATS L10 off BB SU losses. WASH 0-7 ATS in gms 5-8 <500 as a FAV vs <500 opp. WASH 8-3 ATS off DD ATS loss. MIA 29-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 26-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 8-9-1 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. WASH needs to win this game just to show that there is some talent on this club. MIA is just plain terrible on both sides of the ball. MIA #31 TOT OFF w/#31 PASS OFF & #32 RUSH OFF. MIA#32 TOT DEF w/#31 PASS DEF & #32 RUSH DEF. Did MIA HC Brian Flores think it would be this difficult? WASH is not much better but, they can score. Normally, when two teams this bad play each other, you would take the team getting points. However, there are talented guys on WASH and they can score points. WASH RB Adrian Peterson should have a nice day here if he doesn’t get tired of running because this is one game that he should have great stats. HC Bill Callahan knows this team, so WASH should at least win this one. MIA has no one that stands out and they are last in everything. MIA is just plain terrible and I honestly think Alabama or Clemson could give them a good game. They wouldn’t win but, it may be close. Lay the points here as there will be more WASH fans in attendance than MIA fans.
THE PICK: WASH-3 ½ 5 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS PHILLY+3
LW, PHILLY @HOME played & beat NYJ, so what. If it had been close or PHILLY got beat, then we would have something to discuss. The only thing to discuss here is that PHILLY sacked NYJ QBS 10x and NYJ QB Luke Falk had 2INTS & 1 lost fumble. 1 fumble & 1INT were returned for tds by PHILLY. Anyway, PHILLY could have done better but they won 31-6. LW, MINN @NYG beat NYG, another so what. NYG are terrible and have injuries all over the place. MINN had 2tds & 5fgs for a 28-10 win. If MINN had problems getting in the endzone vs NYG, how are they going to do it vs PHILLY? Earlier in the week, MINN QB Kirk Cousins was called out by one of his WR’s Adam Thielen. Cousins responded with a good game. I am not a big fan of Cousins and he is prone to turnoveridous and missing his receivers. In turn PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is a better QB than Cousins but must stay healthy for PHILLY to win. PHILLY RB Jordan Howard has been a welcome addition but needs to do more. PHILLY #1 RUSH DEF vs MINN #3 RUSH OFF. MINN RB Dalvin Cook has had big games vs ATL, NYG, OAK & GB. The only one I was surprised about was vs GB and that was in a loss. Key for PHILLY is stopping MINN run game. L6 MINN vs PHILLY, 3-3 SUATS. PHILLY 25-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 15-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 4-10 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs non-div opps. PHILLY 2-12 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. PHILLY 3-20 ATS in gms 5-8 500> AWAY vs 500>opp. MINN 25-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 32-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 8-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. MINN 7-1 ATS vs non-div opp w/revenge off BBSU wins. MINN 4-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 4-12 ATS as a FAV <11pts off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 2-5 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. MINN @HOME in 2019 is 2-0 SUATS. But, who have they played? ATL with no DEF & OAK, so what. PHILLY had a nice game @GB and they were a scoring machine. They need to that & more vs MINN. This is certainly a game that could go down to the wire and 3<pts could decide it. PHILLY DEF has to stop RB Dalvin Cook and put it all on Cousin’s shoulders. That’s how they will win. PHILLY DC Jim Schwartz has been there before and should be able to dial up the winning combinations. PHILLY receivers need to get open and catch passes because Wentz will be under pressure in the pocket. This should be a good game and I see it going PHILLY’s way. They are just a little better.
THE PICK: PHILLY+3 3 STARS
NO Saints (4-1), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS NO+1
LW, NO took care of TB @HOME in the DOME. The way TB has been playing of late I figured they would keep it close with NO because they have played NO tough in the DOME in the past. TB fell short and NO covered. Maybe they scored too many points @LAR the week before (55-40). So far, NO QB Teddy Bridgewater has been doing a nice job since Drew Brees was injured. The OFF has certainly been taking advantage of whatever the opposing DEFs are giving them. NO didn’t score much vs DAL but they didn’t lose either. LW, JAGS fell short @CAR but the DEF for JAGS gave up too much. JAGS lost 34-27 and CAR RB Christian McCaffrey was a one man wrecking crew that couldn’t be stopped. JAGS DEF had no answers & JAGS QB Gardner Minshew was very sloppy and had 3 lost fumbles, 2 of which were turned into 14pts by CAR. NO DEF has gotten better than in past years but has a few holes. JAGS are discovering what they have on OFF & DEF since Nick Foles was injured and Minshew has to get a little more refined in his abilities as an NFL QB. You can’t play TENN every week. L3 NO vs JAGS, NO 3-0 SUATS. NO 5-6 ATS L11 in 1st of BB RG’s. NO 30-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 27-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 8-3 ATS L11 after TB. NO 14-8 ATS L22 as a ROAD DOG. JAGS 11-24 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 16-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 1-8 SUATS L9 vs NFC SOUTH. JAGS 4-25 SU & 7-22 ATS L29 vs NFC. JAGS 2-10 ATS in gms 5-8 off non-div gm vs NFC opp. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette had a very good game @CAR but it was in a catchup mode. He is vital to Minshew having pressure off of him. There are many weapons on this NO team both on OFF & DEF and they are playing a team that may not recognize what is coming at them. Bridgewater has been there before and should be up for the challenge. This is basically a PICK’EM game because historically NO has had problems on the road. NO just has to stay calm and execute. JAGS are getting there but have some hiccups. Minshew will learn. If this game gets sloppy, it could go either way.
THE PICK: NO+1 3 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (0-5), (2-3) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2), (2-2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS CINNCY+11
LW, CINNCY was down 23-9 @HOME vs ARZ. They made a nice comeback to tie it at 23-23 but lost the game when ARZ put together a drive and kicked a fg to win it 26-23. So far, nothing has gone right for CINNCY. CINNCY WR AJ Green will still be out for this game but CINNCY QB Andy Dalton was able to spread the ball around to nine different receivers. That’s a good sign. However, the DEF for CINNCY has not been able to stop anyone CINNCY #31 TOT DEF w/#17 PASS DEF & #31 RUSH DEF. ARZ rushed for 266 yds. That’s a hell of a lot of running. CINNCY HC Zac Taylor has his hands full and is still looking for his first win. LW, BALT had a 17-7 lead on PITT and some how blew the lead but ended up winning in OT due a fumble. BALT 1-2-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. They have made a lot of careless mistakes in games and QB Lamar Jackson has been guilty of a lot of them. He certainly needs to hold onto the ball better and he is having a problem doing so. The OFF sometimes gets stagnated and becomes predictable. L12 BALT(H) vs CINNCY BALT 7-5 SU but 4-6-1 ATS 1 NL. L20 BALT vs CINNCY, CINNCY 13-5-1 ATS 1NL. L16 BALT vs CINNCY, FAV 8-6-1 ATS 1NL. CINNCY 21-37 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 29-41 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 14-31 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CINNCY 5-9 ATS AWAY after BB SU losses. CINNCY 1-9 ATS as a DIV DOG 3>pts off SU FAV loss. CINNCY 1-12 ATS in gms 5-8 <.500 off HOME gm. BALT 25-31-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 15-16-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 22-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. BALT 3-13 ATS as a DIV HF 4>pts. BALT 0-7 ATS as a DIV HF 8>pts. BALT 1-10 ATS as a HF >10pts vs .400<opp. BALT 1-9 ATS in gms 5-8 off div gm vs <500 opp. There’s no love lost between these two teams and when they get together and there are a lot of penalties. But CINNCY needs a win like no one’s business and they need to play smart. BALT if pushed makes some mistakes and they haven’t beaten anyone, MIA, barely ARZ & barely PITT. A big spread like this smells upset city because CINNCY has nothing to lose & BALT is feeling the pressure. BALT will certainly try to establish the run game considering how bad CINNCY is vs the run. Andy Dalton knows BALT and the DEF for BALT in the scheme of things hasn’t changed. BALT S Tony Jefferson is out with a torn ACL but, Dalton still has to play smart. Take the points here as the game will be closer than the spread because this is a divisional game that rarely sees a blowout.
The PICK: CINNCY+11 3 STARS
Sunday October 13th, 2019 4:00pm
SF 49ers (4-0), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ LA Rams (3-2), (3-1-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS SF+3
On MNF, SF @HOME completely destroyed CLEVE 31-3. It wasn’t even a game as CLEVE looked bad from the get go and SF’s 1st play from scrimmage was SF RB Matt Breida racing for 83 yds untouched for a td. SF rushed for 275 yds vs CLEVE. On top of that SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw 2tds, 0INTS & 0turnovers. CLEVE had 4turnovers which led to the onslaught by SF. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield was terrible as was the CLEVE DEF. SF played well as they took what the CLEVE DEF gave them, unfortunately not much. LW, on TNF, I liked LAR+1 ½. I also felt that LAR would win outright. Everyone liked SEA. LAR should have won as LAR K Greg Zeurlein who never misses a fg, missed the game winning fg with seconds left. That would have given LAR the win. However, they did cover in a 30-29 loss. I was confident because LAR has won in SEATTLE before so it wasn’t a stretch. Now, LAR is coming off two straight losses and are pissed off. Also, in the game @SEA, LAR LB Clay Matthews suffered a broken jaw so he will be out a few weeks. He will be missed because he leads the LAR with 6.0 sacks. L12 LAR(H) vs SF, LAR 4-8 SU & 6-6 ATS. L24 LAR vs SF, LAR 8-15-1 SU & 11-13 ATS. L14 LAR vs SF , SF 8-6 ATS. LAR 23-15 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 29-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 21-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. LAR 18-18 ATS L36 as a HOME FAV. SF 10-7-1 ATS L18 in 1st of BB RG’s. SF 16-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SF 22-39 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 22-13 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SF 13-2 ATS w/div rev vs opp off BB SU losses. SF 5-1 ATS w/rev vs opp off BB SU losses. LAR OFF has been in a little bit of a funk recently but looked like it may have gotten back on track @SEA. LAR cannot afford to lose this game as they would be at .500 and it would have all of a sudden gotten tougher in the NFC WEST. The reason why LAR is a good bet on this one is because LAR is coming off a nice rest while SF has a short week coming off MNF. SF may be a little tired. LAR know they have to get back on track while SF hasn’t really played any teams that are >.500. SF #2 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #5 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here as LAR gets a nice win and makes things interesting in the NFC WEST. Look for LAR to run the ball as much as possible to keep the SF DEF guessing.
THE PICK: LAR-3 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3-1), (3-2) ATS, (0-2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS ARZ+2 ½
If you read my analysis you will know that I look down on the ATL DEF for good reason. It’s because they can’t stop anyone. The only reason they have one win is because PHILLY WR Nelson Agholor dropped a sure td pass after beating the ATL secondary. ATL #23 TOT DEF w/#20 PASS DEF & #19 RUSH DEF. ATL HC Dan Quinn was supposed to be a master of DEF & ATL hasn’t been effective on DEF since their SuperBowl appearance. Right now he is on the hotseat and for good reason. Also, the OFF has become predictable. ATL WR Julio Jones is questionable for this game with a hip injury. ATL #28 RUSH OFF & #3 PASS OFF. ATL has almost totally given up the run. LW, HOU put up 53 points on ATL. ATL was actually leading this game at halftime 17-16 but HOU turned on the juice in the 2nd half and ATL played catchup the rest of the way. HOU put up almost 600 yds of OFF on the ATL DEF. ATL lost 53-32. DE Vic Beasely, where are you? LW, ARZ was up 23-9 on CINNCY @CINNCY in the 4th qtr. But they did what DET did in wk1. They let CINNCY come back & tie the game. The DEF for ARZ let CINNCY march down the field and score 2tds in the 4th qtr. ARZ DEF has 12 sacks but 0INTS. They need to start getting some INTS. On the OFF, ARZ rushed for 266 yds vs a CINNCY DEF that is terrible vs the run. L9 ATL vs ARZ, ATL 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS. HOME TEAM 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS. ARZ 32-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 32-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. ARZ 10-4 ATS L14 as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 13-4 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 6-8-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 13-7 ATS as a DOG vs <500 opp. ATL 7-7 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 7-7 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. ATL 30-21 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 21-23 ATS as a FAV in OCT. This is one of those games that could go either way depending on how tough the ARZ DEF is. ATL has star power on OFF but hasn’t been able to manufacture a game that is convincing enough. The DEF for ATL is certainly a liability and ARZ QB Kyler Murray has to take what the ATL DEF gives him and not try to be Superman. The run game for ARZ has to be effective otherwise Murray will be pressured to do too much. This game is actually a toss up depending on how many turnovers are committed by each team and if they turn into points. Each team has been known to turn the ball over and that may factor in heavily who wins this game. This is certainly one of those games where no one cares except the fans of both teams and the gamblers. I’m looking at the HOME team here with the points because ARZ is due @HOME.
THE PICK: ARZ+2 ½ 3 STARS
Tennessee Titans (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (1-4), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (1-1) ATS TENN+2 ½
LW, TENN lost @HOME vs BUFF. I liked BUFF in that game because BUFF was coming off that loss @HOME vs NE and their DEF was tough, even for NE. TENN has a wishy washy team and there are times you don’t know which team will show up. TENN had a nice game @ATL the week before but, ATL is a team on the way down and their DEF is suspect. But vs BUFF I knew they would have a tougher time. TENN HC Mike Vrabel was brought in to get this team to the next level. So far, TENN has been mediocre and unpredictable. But, in that game TENN K Cairo Santos missed 4fgs which could have changed the game for TENN. He was cut after the game. TENN QB Marcus Mariota was also sacked 5x. TENN didn’t have any turnovers so, with the made fgs, they would have had the win. So far, TENN is better on the road 2-1 SUATS than @HOME, 0-2 SUATS. LW, DEN upset LAC @LAC. The score was 17-0 before you turned around and LAC never caught up. It didn’t help that LAC QB Philip Rivers had 2INTS. Even with DEN QB mediocre Joe Flacco throwing 1INT, 1 lost fumble & being sacked 3x, DEN won, go figure. DE Bradley Chubb is out for the season with that torn ACL. DEN DB De’Vante Bausby had a neck injury in the game vs LAC and is out. LB/DE Justin Hollins suffered a sprained right knee and bone bruise and he’s out for this game and probably more. L6 TENN vs DEN, DEN 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS. TENN 31-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 30-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. TENN TENN 9-2 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. DEN 6-4-2 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. DEN 33-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 31-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 12-3 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 2-6 ATS L8 after LAC. DEN 6-0 ATS off DIV DOG win. DEN 0-7 ATS in gms 5-8 off div gm vs opp off non-div opp. I like TENN here because they are in desperate need of a win and on a bounceback. They should also be a little revved up because if the fgs were made they might have pulled out the win. Mariota needs to play a smart game here. RB Derrick Henry needs to run and keep running. DEN has a terrible RUN DEF and this is the perfect recipe for TENN. Also, Mariota less with the ball means, less mistakes. DEN is feeling good about themselves after their nice win @LAC and may relax a bit. Plus, the injuries are piling up on DEF. TENN needs to run the ball all day vs DEN. DEN #22 RUSH DEF. Take TENN & the points here because TENN should win outright.
THE PICK: TENN+2 ½ 3 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ NY Jets (0-4), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS NYJ+7
LW, NYJ played @PHILLY. It wasn’t much of a game for NYJ as they were beaten 31-6. NYJ got a lone td in the 4th qtr when the game was out of reach and didn’t even get the 2pt conversion. Why would you even bother? NYJ QB Luke Falk had another bad game with 2INTS, 1fumble & he was sacked 9x. Then newly signed QB David Fales comes in and he gets sacked 1x too. Here’s what I don’t understand, QB Sam Darnold was probably not going to be available for the game but NYJ HC Adam Gase had him run the 1st team reps on Wed & Thurs. Then he let Falk work with the first team on Friday. Why wouldn’t you have Falk work with the 1st team all week? That’s why Gase will not be in NY many years. Anyway, NYJ QB Sam Darnold has been cleared medically and will play this week vs DAL. The spread actually went down a little bit, not a lot, but it did. NYJ LB CJ Mosley is still out and questionable for this game with that groin injury he suffered in wk 1. The NYJ DEF could use a guy like him because they are showing nothing else on DEF. LW, DAL was down 31-3 @HOME to GB. They tried to make a comeback but ending up losing 34-24. I liked GB in that game because even though owner Jerry Jones may write the checks, Aaron Rodgers owns the COWBOYS. The DEF for GB stifled DAL at every turn. It didn’t help that DAL QB Dak Prescott threw 3INTS. This guy wants $40million per year? GB RB Aaron Jones ate the DAL DEF up by rushing for 107 yds and scoring 4tds. Rodgers found holes in the DAL DEF that weren’t there. DAL 8-4-1 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 27-29-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 38-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 13-3 ATS AWAY off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss. NYJ 9-10-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 3-10 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. NYJ 28-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 30-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 15-12-1 ATS L28 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 13-3 ATS as a DOG 1>pt after scoring 7<pts. NYJ 5-1 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. DAL is on a double bounceback and they need to get their train back on track. What better way than to come to town and beat up an inferior opponent. NYJ QB Sam Darnold will be rusty in his first game back and he will certainly try to force the ball in places he should not throw it. Look for him to have a couple of INTS. DAL is looking at giving the NYJ team a beat down. NYJ #32 TOT OFF w/#32PASS OFF & #30 RUSH OFF vs DAL #6 TOT DEF w/#9 PASS DEF & #13 RUSH DEF. You will see a lot of DAL RB Ezekial Elliott running the ball in this one and even a defensive td by the DAL DEF. Lay the points here as the stadium will look pretty empty in the 4th qtr.
THE PICK: DAL-7 5 STARS
Sunday October 13th, 2019 8:20pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4), (2-2-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (2-3), (1-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS PITT+7
LW, PITT QB Mason Rudolph was knocked out of the game in the 3rd qtr @HOME vs BAL. In comes QB Devlin Hodges who didn’t do too badly considering that this was his 1st game in the NFL, ever. Rudolph will be out this week as Hodges will be in. BALT was leading in the game 17-7 but PITT stormed back to take the lead 20-17. Both teams exchanged fgs and the game went into OT where PITT WR JuJu Smith-Schuster fumbled a pass and it was recovered by BALT. BALT sat on it and kicked a fg to win in OT. PITT is probably kicking themselves because they had the game and a nice comeback. PITT 3-3 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. PITT has lost some fire power on the OFF in the last year but HC Mike Tomlin knows that he needs to keep it going so the next guys aren’t in rebuild. So far, the only game that PITT has looked like PITT was on MNF vs CINNCY. Other than that PITT hasn’t looked the same. PITT could use some rest to regroup. PITT 7-5 ATS since 2007 week before their bye. LW, LAC got steam rolled by DEN. It was DEN 17-0 before you could blink. LAC was a big FAV & came up lame. They have not looked the same this season and are not playing at the level they were in 2018. If you only watched that game, you would have thought DEN was the better team throughout the season. LAC couldn’t capitalize on DEN QB Joe Flacco’s mistakes because LAC QB Philip Rivers had a few of his own. LAC RB Melvin Gordon seemed rusty after his 1st game back from holding out and the rest of the team didn’t stop DEN whether it was in the air or on the ground. L7 LAC vs PITT, LAC 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. PITT 25-10-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 32-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 5-11 ATS L16 vs AFC WEST. PITT 4-11 ATS L15 AWAY vs AFC WEST. PITT 7-19 ATS L26 AWAY vs non-din conf. PITT 13-15 ATS AWAY on SNF. PITT 10-0 ATS as a DOG in gms 5-8 off div gm vs non-div opp. PITT 10-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 5-8 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAC 28-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 29-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 34-31-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 5-2 ATS L7 after DEN. LAC 7-8 ATS on SNF vs opp off a loss. LOAC 4-8 ATS on SNF vs opp w/revenge. There is a revenge factor for PITT here for the SNF drubbing that LAC gave PITT last season @PITT. LAC hasn’t played well @HOME and although they should win this game, I don’t like all the points they are laying. I think it will be a closer game than the spread suggests. The DEF for PITT will play better against Rivers because he is predictable and if pressured always makes mistakes. LAC #18 RUSH DEF. PITT should run at LAC all day because they will be expecting PITT to throw. I don’t really expect a blowout by either team but I do expect a tightly contested game that goes down to the wire. Both teams are on a bounceback so they should both be up for the game. The points here help and it wouldn’t surprise me if PITT finds a way to win. Turnovers in this game will be monumental.
THE PICK: PITT+7 3 STARS
Monday October 14th, 2019 8:15pm
Detroit Lions (2-1-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ GB Packers (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS DET+4
LW, GB went to DAL and took care of DAL. GB QB Aaron Rodgers owns the COWBOYS and I liked GB even w/o WR Devante Adams & RB Jamaal Williams. I thought that TE Jimmy Graham would see more touches but he saw the ball when DAL didn’t expect it. GB was leading 31-3 and DAL tried to make a comeback but came up short and GB held on 34-24. The DEF for GB was great because they forced DAL QB Dak Prescott into 3INTS & sacked him 3x. The GB DEF starting giving up a little when DAL was trying to make their comeback. You could see that the GB DEF was a little tired. However, the GB OFF was balanced & the DAL DEF was on its toes all game. That’s the way GB has to play in this game. Make DET think. DET is coming off a bye. DET 7-5 ATS since 2007 when coming off their bye. Before that, they barely lost @HOME vs KC 34-30. That was a game that went back & forth and DET had their chances in this one but folded at the end. DET rushed for 186 yds in that game & QB Matt Stafford threw 3TDS, 0INTS but was sacked 4x. There were also 2 lost fumbles by Stafford & RB Kerryon Johnson. It was a sloppy game in that there were 5 combined lost fumbles by both teams. DET & GB know each other so there aren’t too many secrets and any love lost either. L12 GB(H) vs DET, GB 9-3 SU but 5-6-1 ATS. L24 GB vs DET, GB 16-8 SU & 12-11-1 ATS. L28 GB (H) vs DET , GB 25-3 SU. L15 GB vs DET, HOME 7-7-1 ATS. GB 30-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 22-24 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 17-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. GB 7-6-1 ATS L14 in 1st of BB HG’s. GB 8-10 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. GB 2-5 ATS L7 off SU DOG win. DET 29-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 20-20 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. DET 36-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 7-3 ATS on MNF. DET 2-12 ATS as a DOG <10 pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 8-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH on MNF. DET 1-8 ATS as a DIV DOG <10 pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 10-0 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. DET 1-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. This is a revenge game for GB because DET beat GB 2-0 SUATS in 2018 and we know that Rodgers always remembers. For DET TE TJ Hockenson who suffered a concussion in the KC game is still questionable. DET S Quandre Diggs is also questionable with a hamstring. DET CB Darius Slay who sat out the last game vs KC is questionable. DET WR Danny Amendola is questionable with a chest injury. GB WR Devante Adams is still questionable for this game with his turf toe but if GB plays the way they did @DAL in this game, they should have no trouble with DET. Lay the points here as GB gets its revenge.
THE PICK: GB-4 5 STARS