2019 NFL WEEK 7
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 7 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 17th, 2019 8:20pm
KC Chiefs (4-2), (2-4) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS DEN+3 ½
LW, I liked HOU @KC getting +5. KC was leading 17-3 in the 1st qtr but HOU made some adjustments and took it to KC. HOU won 31-24. KC could not run the ball and had a measly 53 yds. KC QB Pat Mahomes is definitely hobbling and cannot run right now like he has in the past. This lets opposing DEF focus on him a little tighter. The DEF for KC is atrocious. KC #27 TOT DEF w/#19 PASS DEF & #30 RUSH DEF. They are worse than advertised. They really can’t stop anyone. On OFF, RB LeSean McCoy hasn’t contributed much since signing. He could be banged up or HC Andy Reid doesn’t want to use him more. I don’t know the answer there. But the running game for KC is next to nil KC #24 RUSH OFF. This means that they are putting it on the shoulders of Mahomes. WR Tyreek Hill is the lone bright spot for KC on OFF but, he can’t do it alone. DEN, after starting out 0-4 had a nice win vs LAC & then a shutout win vs TENN. The DEF for DEN has certainly stepped up getting 5INTS, 7 sacks & 1 fumble recovery in the last two games. Maybe they woke up. DEN HC Vic Fangio is supposed to be a DEF guru and maybe guys are finally buying into the program. They could certainly buy into it this week vs KC. Also this week, DEN RBs Phillip Lindsay & Royce Freeman should run wild over the KC DEF. L12 DEN(H) vs KC, DEN 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS. L20 DEN vs KC, DEN 11-9 ATS. L21 DEN vs KC, ROAD 13-8 ATS. L24 DEN vs KC, DOG 16-8 ATS. DEN 10-2 ATS L12 on TNF. DEN 7-5 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. DEN 34-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 24-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 21-16 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 1-4 ATS L5 after allowing 7<pts. DEN 11-3 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses. DEN 9-3 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. DEN 8-1 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG off SU win vs opp off HOME gm. DEN 5-1 ATS @HOME on TNF. KC 25-16 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 17-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 23-28-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 12-4 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 9-6 ATS L15 after an SU loss. KC 5-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. KC 8-8 ATS on TNF. KC 6-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge off SUATS win. KC 9-2 ATS in gms 5-8 off BB SU losses vs 500>opp. I like DEN here on a short week because they will be pumped and the KC DEF is terrible. DEN QB Joe Flacco has to take what the KC DEF gives him which means missed assignments and confusion which will leave guys open. DEN has some playmakers and all of a sudden the AFC WEST is up for grabs. Yes, KC is on a double bounceback but, right now, the KC OFF looks like it can be stopped and the DEF has gotten worse. This may be a closer game than the spread suggests and DEN getting points should get them fired up. Who will show up? Average Joe or Super Joe? The spotlight will be on DEN here. L7 KC vs DEN, KC 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS. KC has also ruled out WR Sammy Watkins, CB Kendall Fuller, OT Eric Fisher & DT Chris Jones. DEN is definitely overdue on this one and should be pumped for this game. Take the points but I think DEN has a good shot at winning outright.
THE PICK: DEN+3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 20th, 2019 1:00pm
LA Rams (3-3), (3-2-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-0-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ATL+3
LAR QB Jared Goff looks like he is turning into a Matt Ryan & that is not a good thing. Matt Ryan is one of those QBs that needs to have everyone around him playing great for him to be great instead of trying to make things happen. This is what Goff looked like LW vs SF. You need to read what the DEF is throwing at you and adjust. He looked like a bad rookie out there vs SF and had no idea what was coming. LAR is lucky that the score wasn’t worse. LW, I liked LAR on a double bounceback @HOME vs SF. Unfortunately, SF came out swarming on DEF & LAR also made some suspect OFF decisions that combined for LAR to lose the game 20-7. The OFF for LAR didn’t make the necessary adjustments and were clobbered. The only bright spot for LAR was the strip fumble by DT Aaron Donald of Jimmy G that unfortunately, didn’t lead to anything for LAR. There are many guys that are injured for LAR but guys still need to step up. After they should have beaten SEA on TNF I felt LAR would play with some vigor and look to move forward but, they were lame. This week, LAR picked up CB Jalen Ramsey from JAGS that will definitely help the secondary. CB Aqib Talib was put on IR because of a rib injury and CB Marcus Peters was traded to BALT. LW, ATL tried to make a nice comeback to no avail @ARZ. ARZ cruised out to 27-10 lead in the 3rd qtr and ATL then tied the game at 27. But ARZ scored a td. ATL had a nice drive to score a td but missed the extra point attempt to lose 34-33. The fact that ARZ was getting points was one of the reasons I liked them vs ATL. I felt it was going to be a shootout in the desert. Let’s face it ATL has no DEF and the usual suspects on OFF always touch the ball. ATL #26 TOT DEF w/ #27 PASS DEF & #20 RUSH DEF. Matt Ryan’s stats from the ARZ game look great but, it was all in a catchup attempt. Who knows if ATL would have won even if they had successfully kicked the extra point? When a team is bad everything usually goes against them. L6 LAR vs ATL, ATL 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. LAR 26-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 23-16 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 7-8-1 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 8-2-1 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 7-1 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU loss vs <500opp off SUATS loss. LAR 7-1-1 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. ATL 6-4 ATS L10 in 1st of BB HG’s. ATL 26-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 34-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 5-0 ATS L5 as a HOME DOG. ATL 5-15 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 2-8 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 10-2 ATS in gms 5-8 vs NFC WEST off SU loss. LAR have some beating up to do and ATL is in the way. The OFF for LAR has to play better. They cannot be predictable and totally rely on RB Todd Gurley. Gurley is questionable for this game but LAR have to bring a complete package on OFF. 78 yds passing is unacceptable. The ATL-ARZ game could have gone either way but I liked ARZ with the points. ATL is not playing up to their potential and there certainly will be some changes after the season. Right now, they need to see what works and try to salvage the season. However, LAR will bounce back. Lay the points here as LAR beats up on ATL.
THE PICK: LAR-3 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (0-5), (1-4) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS MIA+17
LW, MIA QB Josh Rosen who has been nothing but a car wreck was benched vs WASH. He was terrible and anyone off the street probably could do better. In comes Ryan Fitzpatrick and leads two drives to tds and almost won the game outright from visiting WASH. I liked WASH-3 ½ and they were leading 17-3 in the 4th qtr when Fitzpatrick worked his magic against a useless WASH DEF who couldn’t stop a PEE-WEE team from scoring. To make a long story short, no cover by WASH and only a 1pt win. MIA has been atrocious in 2019 and they have traded anyone with a little bit of talent to stockpile draft picks for 2020. Hence MIA has no one left on the team worth watching. BUFF is coming off a bye. BUFF 7-4-1 ATS since 2007 week after their bye. BUFF has been a nice surprise and their only loss was barely to NE @BUFF in Sept. Except foe NE BUFF really hasn’t played anyone tough. They have beaten @NYJ, @NYG, CINNCY & @TENN before their bye. The game vs TENN was defensive struggle and BUFF won 14-7. BUFF #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #7 RUSH DEF. As I am writing this MIA is in talks to trade RB Kenyon Drake. MIA#31 TOT OFF w/#31 PASS OFF & #31 RUSH OFF. Hey, at least they are consistent. L12 BUFF(H) vs MIA, BUFF 8-4 SUATS. L20 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 11-8 ATS 1NL. L23 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 13-9 ATS 1NL. BUFF 6-7-1 ATS L14 in 1st of BB HG’s. BUFF 27-27-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 22-31-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 21-23 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. BUFF 12-6 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. MIA 11-2 ATS 1NL L14 in 1st of BB RG’s. MIA 30-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 32-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 20-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. This game has the makings of a complete blowout, by halftime. If BUFF doesn’t blowout MIA, they should be ashamed because there is no one on the team that could do any damage. BUFF QB Josh Allen & the BUFF OFF need to play smart and score early & often. No mistakes for Allen but scoring. For the BUFF DEF, it is all about turnovers. They need to create turnovers and force MIA into predictable situations. This is how they will dominate on both sides of the ball. RB Frank Gore whould run wild against the team that discarded him. All the receivers should touch the ball. Lay the points here and hopefully BUFF does the job right.
THE PICK: BUFF-17 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-6), (3-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS CINNCY+3 ½
LW, I knew CINNCY wasn’t beating BALT outright. But I also knew BALT wasn’t covering the eleven point spread as the FAV. CINNCY was playing catchup the whole game and was down 23-10 in the 4th qtr. I knew BALT DEF would let up late in the game with the game won so CINNCY put together a nice drive that ended in a back door cover. I liked CINNCY because of the points but no way to win. CINNCY HC Zac Taylor was handed the keys to a team that he may have to gut in the off season because there are so many dysfunctional parts on OFF & DEF. BALT rushed for 269 yds vs CINNCY DEF that has its share of problems too. There is a lot of pressure on CINNCY QB Andy Dalton because the running game is so bad. CINNCY #32 RUSH OFF. This is because of a terrible O-LINE where Dalton has already been sacked 22x. On top of that WR John Ross is on IR & WR AJ Green can’t come back soon enough. His return is still up in the air because of his ankle. However, Dalton was able to spread the ball around to eight different receivers vs BALT. CINNCY #31 TOT DEF. On the flip side, they can’t stop anyone either and it seems that good teams just toy with them. LW, JAGS had a tough time with NO. Even though it was a low scoring game, 13-6 NO, it was a defensive struggle. The score was 3-3 at the half. A lot of punts in this game and the lone td came in the 4th qtr by NO. The lone INT by JAGS QB Gardner Minshew turned into a NO fg. Minshew hasn’t thrown that many INTS which is a good thing, 9TDS, 2INTS so he keeps his team in the game but he just has to hold the ball better. JAGS RB Leonard Fournette has to be an integral part of the OFF for JAGS to win. This takes pressure off of Minshew and keeps opposing DEFs guessing. Also noted, JAGS CB Jalen Ramsey was shipped to LAR for draft picks. Who steps up in that spot is a we’ll see. L6 CINNCY vs JAGS, CINNCY 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS. JAGS 10-1 ATS L11 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 11-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 25-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 3-5 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. JAGS 19-10-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 6-10 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. CINNCY 4-3 ATS L7 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 21-33-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 29-42 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 14-13-1 ATS L28 after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 13-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 6-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs opp off SU loss. JAGS should run all day with RB Leonard Fournette. CINNCY #32 RUSH DEF. This would take a lot of pressure off of Minshew. Lay the points here because even though CINNCY is desperate for a win, JAGS are a better team and should bounce back here. They need to run all day vs CINNCY and then throw a pass here and there to give Fournette a breather. JAGS should win by more than a td.
THE PICK: JAGS-3 ½ 5 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (2-2-1), (4-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (2-0) ATS DET+1
LW, MINN @HOME really took it to PHILLY. PHILLY was never in it and PHILLY was playing catchup all game. Since MINN WR Adam Thielen called out QB Kirk Cousins, MINN has won two games very convincingly. The OFF & DEF for MINN has played well and the RBs rushed for over 100yds which takes a lot of pressure off of Cousins. If there is pressure on Cousins, he tends to make mistakes and his passes are horrible. DET played @GB on MNF. DET had a 13-0 lead at GB and GB finally woke up. The final score was GB 23-22 but GB could have had a td on the final drive instead of a fg that would have led to a DET lose & no cover. DET got the cover because GB played very conservative when usually they look for the nail in the coffin. Anyway, DET HC Matt Patricia has DET playing better on OFF & DEF and trying to take the load off of Stafford’s arm. They are trying to run the ball more but have come up against teams that play the run well. Against GB, DET rushed for a total of 56 yds. That will usually not get you a win. DET #16 RUSH OFF vs MINN #9 RUSH DEF. MINN will be looking for the run. These two teams know each other & MINN HC Mike Zimmer is very familiar with DET QB Matt Stafford. L12 DET(H) vs MINN, MINN 6-6 SU & 7-4-1 ATS. L24 DET vs MINN, MINN 13-9-2 ATS. L24 DET vs MINN, DOG 13-9-2 ATS. L24 DET vs MINN, HOME 10-12-2 ATS. L20 DET vs MINN, MINN 12-7-1 ATS. MINN 33-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 26-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 20-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. MINN 10-1 ATS L11 AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 11-4 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 4-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 4-12 ATS as a FAV <11 pts off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 2-9 ATS in gms 5-8 AWAY off DD ATS win. DET 5-6 ATS L11 in 1st of BB HG’s. DET 23-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 37-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 21-20 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. DET 8-11 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. DET 10-2 ATS off SU div loss in gms 5-8 vs .500> opp. DET 2-6 ATS L8 as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. There is a little revenge factor here because MINN beat DET 2x in 2018 pretty handily. That may be on the minds of DET but MINN has upped their game since their little turmoil incident. MINN #3 RUSH OFF vs DET #27 RUSH DEF. MINN should run all day here. This is close to a PICK’EM game and a lot of times one team takes control of the game. Unless MINN has a total meltdown in this one, I see MINN coming away with the victory. This is always a battle but MINN is the better team here.
THE PICK: MINN-1 5 STARS
Oakland Raiders (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ GB Packers (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS OAK+6
On MNF, GB let DET get out to a 13-0 before really waking up on DEF. Had DET stepped on the peddle just a little more on OFF, they would have put the game out of reach. But, when Aaron Rodgers was able to work his magic he brought GB back. GB probably could have won by 5pts but instead settled for a winning fg with, unfortunately, no cover. But the DEF for GB stopped the DET running game to 56 yds and made DET QB Matt Stafford throw the ball. GB rushed for 170 yds which in turn keeps the opposing DEF on its toes. GB needs to keep their running game effective so that Rodgers can really work his magic in the air. GB RBs Jamaal Williams & Aaron Jones are a good combination and should be able to do some damage this week vs OAK. OAK is a coming off a bye. OAK 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after a bye. Before their bye, they surprised CHI in London 24-21. OAK was actually leading this game 17-0 before CHI knew there was a game going on. OAK has beaten some quality opponents in DEN, @INDY & CHI so they are not a push over. OAK is also getting time from RB Josh Jacobs who ran for 123 yds & 2tds vs CHI. OAK #8 RUSH OFF vs GB #23 RUSH DEF. GB may be taking this team a little lightly. The secondary for OAK has been making tackles as HC Jon Gruden likes. He likes his team t have everyone involved. L3 OAK vs GB, GB 3-0 SUATS. OAK 7-8 ATS L15 in 1st of BB RG’s. OAK 30-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. OAK 35-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. OAK 25-26 ATS L51 as a ROAD DOG. OAK 5-4 ATS L9 AWAY vs 400>non-conf opp. OAK 4-4 ATS L8 w/rest. GB 30-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 22-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 13-16 ATS L29 vs AFC. GB 8-4-2 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB HG’s. GB 3-5 ATS L8 after MNF. GB 18-7-1 ATS after div gm. GB 15-3 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 10-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. GB 12-1 ATS as a FAV <8pts off div gm. GB may take this team lightly as did CHI and OAK has nothing to lose, so there is no pressure on them. GB WR Davante Adams is still questionable with a severe turf toe. This is a big game for OAK QB Derek Carr. He needs to show that he has matured and can take on a team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Derek cannot let Rodgers get inside his head. Carr must rise to the occasion and take what the GB DEF gives him. I like the points here and a closer game than the point spread suggests. GB is on a short week while OAK has had a nice rest. I would be very surprised if OAK does a complete lay down. Take OAK with the points even though GB might squeak out a win.
THE PICK: OAK+6 3 STARS
Houston Texans (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2), (4-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS HOU+1 ½
LW, HOU took it to KC @KC. Even though KC was up 17-3 in the 1st qtr, HOU QB Deshaun Watson didn’t panic. In the 2nd qtr HOU took control and really didn’t look back. HOU outscored KC 28-7 to win outright 31-24. HOU DEF was able to get to and keep KC QB Pat Mahomes in the pocket and rough him up a little which kept him from running. The HOU DEF made plays as well intercepting Mahomes and causing him to fumble as well. At times HOU seemed to score at will. KC DEF is pretty bad and HOU rushed for 192 yds & 3tds. HOU RB Carlos Hyde was able to run for 116 yds on 26 carries & 1td. He did have 1 fumble that led to a fg by KC in the 1st qtr. But Deshaun Watson stayed calm and was able to pick the KC DEF apart. KC didn’t sack him but he did throw 2INTS. That’s why I liked HOU in this game, they had a shot t beat KC or even keep it close as long as they didn’t panic. INDY is coming off a bye. INDY 8-3-1 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. Before their bye they played @KC on SNF and were BIG DOGS @+11. I thought that KC would take it to INDY. Well, INDY had other thoughts and completely shut the KC OFF down. INDY was paying possessed and controlled the tempo of the game and never let KC back into it. INDY rushed for 180 yds vs KC and sacked Mahomes 4x. L12 INDY(H) vs HOU, INDY 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS. L18 HOU vs INDY, HOME, 9-8-1 ATS. L20 HOU vs INDY, FAV 9-9-1 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L18 HOU vs INDY, INDY 11-6-1 ATS. L15 HOU vs INDY, INDY 10-4-1 ATS. HOU 6-8 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. HOU 11-8 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. HOU 14-16 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 17-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 1-7 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. INDY 6-2-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. INDY 16-25-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 27-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 29-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 9-7-1 ATS L17 as a FAV <3pts. INDY 1-12 ATS in gms 5-8 as a HOME FAV vs div opp. INDY 1-7 ATS in gms 5-8 vs div opp off SU DOG win. HOU has guys that were banged up & WR Kenny Stills was out for the game but, Watson was able to spread it around nicely with the passes. Even though these two teams see each other 2x a season, there is a revenge factor for HOU. HOU was beaten @HOME in the 1st round of the playoffs by INDY LY. That has to sit on the minds of the HOU players & coaching staff. HOU #5 RUSH OFF vs INDY #19 RUSH DEF. HOU RB Carlos Hyde is out to prove people wrong so look for him to ply big in this game. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett relies on his RBs to take needed pressure off of him but I think HOU will shut down the run as they did vs KC. INDY RB Marlon Mack is tough but HOU DEF is tougher. INDY#4 RUSH OFF vs HOU #8 RUSH DEF. If Brissett has to throw more, he will make mistakes. This is where HOU will pounce. This game is close to a PICK’EM but I like HOU to win outright on the revenge factor.
THE PICK: HOU +1 ½ 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ NY Giants (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS ARZ+3
Yes, on TNF NE beat NYG 35-14. But that was without RB Saquon Barkley, TE Evan Engram and a host of others. The game was competitive for a while at 14-14 but then NE settled down and took control of the game. NYG was stifled and the game was out of reach. The NYG were a 16 ½ pt DOG and it seemed like NE was looking to cover because they score a td very late in the 4th qtr to seal the deal. Anyway, they have had a nice rest to regroup and plan for this game. NYG QB Daniel Jones did not have a particularly good game vs NE but, in his defense no one QB has had a good game vs NE in 2019. But, Daniel has had 6 INTS in the last three games as opposed to only 3TDs. That’s not good. LW, ARZ won in a wild one @HOME vs ATL. I liked ARZ in that game getting points @HOME because ATL DEF is terrible and ARZ was looking for their first win @HOME. This after beating CINNCY @CINNCY. But in both games ARZ had some nice leads and let the opposition catchup and tie the game. The DEF for ARZ in the 4th qtr of both games was lagging. ARZ QB Kyler Murray is learning. Whether or not he will last in this league, the jury is still out. He needs to take what the DEF gives him and nit try to win games all on his own. This week there is a bounce back for NYG after 2 big losses and ARZ is coasting after two close wins. L7 NYG vs ARZ, ARZ 4-3 SUATS. NYG 27-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 34-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYG 10-0-1 ATS L11 after TNF. NYG 2-7 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 3-9 ATS L12 vs NFC WEST. NYG 0-7 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. NYG 5-7 ATS L12 vs <.400 opp. NYG 2-11 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 0-7 ATS in gms 5-8 as a FAV in 2nd of BB non-div gm vs opp off SU win. NYG 1-5 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ 33-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 18-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 5-6 ATS L11 in 1st of BB RG’s. ARZ 14-8 ATS as a DOG vs <500 opp. ARZ 1-9 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU loss. Both of these teams have suspect DEFs. Neither one of these teams were projected to make the playoffs and QB Daniel Jones wasn’t projected to even play in 2019. However, is RB Saquon Barkley is able to take command of this game and take some of the pressure off of Jones then, I don’t see how ARZ DEF can stop them. ARZ #30 TOT DEF w/ #30 PASS DEF & #26 RUSH DEF. The DEF for NYG hasn’t been much better but I see a little bit of a letdown for ARZ. NYG DEF has some guys that can step up if they focus better. Lay the points here as NYG wins by 4 or 5 points max.
THE PICK: NYG-3 3 STARS
SF 49ers (5-0), (4-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Washington Redskins (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS WASH+10
LW, SF showed me a lot by beating up LAR @LAR. It was a combination of the SF DEF #2 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF & #6 RUSH DEF, plus suspect OFF play calling by LAR. Granted LAR had some guys injured and not playing but you still have to make plays. SF made the right plays and trampled all over LAR. SF DEF got to LAR QB Jared Goff 4x and kept him to 78 yds passing. Yes, that is not a misprint. SF QB Jimmy G had a nice day albeit an INT in the endzone & 1 lost fumb but other than that he had a good day. He spread the ball around to eight different receivers and kept LAR DEF guessing. His fumb was on a strip by DT Aaron Donald. LW, WASH barely beat @MIA. Yes really. WASH looked like they had command of the game @MIA with a 17-3 lead in the 4th qtr. I liked WASH -3 ½ and it looked like a good choice in the 3rd qtr but MIA took QB Josh Rosen out and Ryan Fitzpatrick came in. He lead two td drives and missed a 2pt conversion at the end for a 1pt loss but all of a sudden no cover by WASH. WASH DEF did a complete letdown in the 4th qtr @MIA. The WASH DEF can’t stop anyone. WASH #25 TOT DEF w/ #20 PASS DEF & #28 RUSH DEF. SF RBs Matt Breida & Tevin Coleman are going to run wild against this bunch. L7 SF vs WASH, SF 4-3 SU & 3-3-1 ATS. ROAD 5-1-1 ATS. SF 8-10 ATS L18 in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 23-39 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 40-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 1-1 ATS L2 as a ROAD FAV. SF 7-1-1 ATS as a FAV off SU DOG win. SF 6-1 ATS as a FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. SF 7-1 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. SF 1-10 ATS off SU DIV RD win. SF 10-2 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. SF 1-9 ATS AWAY off SU DIV RD win. WASH 9-9 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. WASH 0-3 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2019. WASH 29-28 ATS @HOME In OCT. WASH 29-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 8-5 ATS as a HD vs 400>opp. WASH 6-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs 600>opp. WASH RB Adrian Peterson finally had a 100yd rushing game but, big deal it was vs MIA. I don’t see him getting that kind of yardage this week vs SF. SF DEF will rush at WASH QB Case Keenum and he will not be able to deliver. SF DEF has 17 sacks & 7INTS. WASH DEF has 14 sacks & 7 INTS. If you looked at just those stats you would think that both of these teams were evenly matched but unfortunately that is not the case. SF will keep the pressure on while scoring many points like they did vs CLEVE on MNF two weeks ago. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SF-10 5 STARS
Sunday October 20th, 2019 4:00pm
LA Chargers (2-4), (1-5) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS LAC+2
LW, I liked PITT+7 @LAC on SNF. Why? Because it was a little payback for what happened on SNF @PITT last year. PITT was up 24-0 and LAC tried to make a valiant comeback but came up short 24-17. PITT was holding on but made some defensive moves vs LAC. For some reason LAC plays better on the road than @HOME. Plus, LAC has played very well vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 26-4 ATS L30 vs AFC SOUTH. LW, TENN couldn’t do anything right and TENN QB Marcus Mariota was pulled and Ryan Tannehill came in. Ryan couldn’t do anything right either and TENN QBs were sacked 7x, rushed for 39 yds and lost @DEN 16-0. Just watching that game you would have thought TENN was winless. Guess what? Mariota will not be starting this game as Tannehill has been given the reins. I doubt he will do any better than what Mariota has done. TENN HC Mike Vrabel has a lot of pressure on him all of a sudden because TENN is looking undisciplined and lethargic. Their only two wins have been vs CLEVE & ATL, so what! TENN #27 TOT OFF. Mariota misses guys that are completely open and that is not a talent thing, it’s a head thing. L9 LAC vs TENN, LAC 8-1 SUATS. LAC 8-5 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. LAC 28-34 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 29-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 6-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG off BB SU losses vs 500<opps. TENN 2-10 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. TENN 29-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 27-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TENN 2-13 ATS L15 @HOME vs AFC WEST. TENN 10-2 ATS in gms 5-8 off non-div & BB SUATS losses. TENN 9-2 ATS off DD ATS loss vs .500<opp. This is a desperation game for LAC to get back into the playoff picture because they certainly haven’t been playing like they were in 2018. I said that LW in my analysis and PITT was revved up for the game. LAC is on a serious bounceback and have the personnel to play better. LAC QB Philip Rivers has to take what the DEF gives him. In some cases he tries to do too much. LAC RB Melvin Gordon needs to have a better game so that Rivers can relax. TE Hunter Henry has become a FAV of Rivers but should spread it around more. TENN QB Mariota has been in a funk and can’t seem to find his way out of it. QB Ryan Tannehill is not much better. Either way, LAC is looking for a big win to get them back in it. Take the points here but I think LAC wins outright anyway.
THE PICK: LAC+2 5 STARS
NO Saints (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS NO+4
LW, NO played a very tough defensive struggle @JAGS. NO QB Teddy Bridgewater has been doing a fine job since Drew Brees was injured. Bridgewater is 4-0 SUATS. You can’t do any better than that. He also spreads the ball around nicely and has thrown 7tds while only throwing 2INTS. The run game has helped him out as well so he doesn’t have all that pressure on him. The DEF for NO kept JAGS in check holding them to 2 fgs and not much else. NO #10 TOT DEF w/#11 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. This is a better DEF all around then it has been in years. DE Cameron Jordan is leading the team with five sacks. CHI is coming off a big loss two weeks ago @London to OAK. The score of that game was 17-0 before CHI woke up with too little too late and lost 24-21. CHI 3-7-1 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. OAK RB Josh Jacobs rushed 26x for 123 yds & 2tds. He seemed to run right over the CHI D-LINE and right at DE Khalil Mack. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky was sidelined in the game vs MINN with a torn labrum and dislocated left shoulder and Chase Daniel relieved him and played vs OAK. However, Mitch is likely to play in this one. He hasn’t exactly been playing lights out and still makes accuracy mistakes with his receivers. Daniels is not really an upgrade and if Trubisky doesn’t get better CHI may be looking for another QB down the line. Good thing that the CHI DEF keeps them in the games. CHI #6 TOT DEF w/ #10 PASS DEF & #5 RUSH DEF. Bridgewater is better than Trubisky which makes a big difference here. NO 6-5 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB RG’s. NO 31-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 28-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO HC Sean Payton 2-3 SU @CHI. NO 12-4 ATS L16 vs NFC NORTH. NO 15-8 ATS L23 as a ROAD DOG. NO 8-1 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. NO 10-0 ATS L10 off SU DOG win. CHI 6-7-2 ATS L15 in 1st of BB HG’s. CHI 21-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 12-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 1-5-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s vs non-div opp. CHI 5-1 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NO should get their run game going and do the same that OAK did when it comes to game plan which upset CHI. CHI RB David Montgomery has been the replacement for Jordan Howard but, opposing teams know he will get the ball. It hasn’t translated into a great success. CHI #26 RUSH OFF. NO DEF should stuff the run and put it all on Mitch Trubisky’s shoulders. This game could go either way if it gets sloppy in the form of turnovers. But, I like how Bridgewater has been handling the games and I see NO coming out of this one with a win. It has the makings of a defensive struggle and a low scoring game. Take the points here as the CHI OFF gets stagnated by the NO DEF. Don’t be surprised if it is a low scoring game decided by a fg.
THE PICK: NO+4 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (4-2), (2-3-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-0-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (5-1), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (0-3) ATS BALT+3 ½
LW, BALT was a BIG FAV @HOME vs CINNCY. I knew CINNCY would play their heart out and BALT wouldn’t cover the -11 spread. BALT won by six points and lost the ATS when CINNCY scored a meaningless td with 1:28 left, a back door cover. But I knew that CINNCY would play tough because they needed to show that they are still alive even if the record doesn’t represent it. BALT relies a lot on the run BALT #1 RUSH OFF. That’s because their QB, Lamar Jackson is their leading rusher which is a recipe for disaster. BALT hasn’t really beaten anyone even though their record is 4-2. They have beaten @MIA, ARZ, @PITT & CINNCY. All so whats. They have lost @KC & CLEVE. This is really the first tough team that BALT is playing and they shuld get a feel for what their delinquencies are if they want to go deep into the playoffs. Right now, they are going into a bye. BALT 5-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. BALT could be thinking of the rest & not the game. LW, SEA played @CLEVE. CLEVE gave all they could but I knew SEA would win outright. That was my pick of the week and they covered. Teams capitalize on CLEV QB Baker Mayfield’s mistakes and SEA certainly did. Mayfield had 3INTS, one resulting in a SEA td. SEA did give up 157 yds rushing to Nick Chubb 122yd, 2tds & Mayfield 35 yds, 1td but defended what they needed in the air. It was a seasaw affair but SEA was the winner in the end. SEA QB Russell Wilson had another great game and so far has 14tds & 0INTS. SEA #5 TOT OFF vs BALT #13 TOT DEF. This will be the difference. L3 SEA vs BALT, SEA 3-0 SUATS. SEA 18-29 ATS @HME in OCT. SEA 20-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 4-7 ATS L11 before ARZ. SEA 2-12 ATS 500> in gms 5-8 vs .500>opp off div gm. BALT 27-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 24-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. BALT 5-11-1 ATS L17 vs NFC. Lamar Jackson will have to play really smart because there are so many guys on SEA DEF that can hurt you. SEA is #11 RUSH DEF which is respectable and they certainly will be shadowing QB Lamar Jackson and making him throw the ball. BALT hasn’t really played anyone or beaten anyone so they don’t know what it’s like to have to play really well. However, the game @KC was a test because at the time KC looked unbeatable but BALT still came up short by 5pts. I think SEA will win by about 5pts because BALT will score a td late that makes it kind of close or SEA will take command of the game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SEA-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 20th, 2019 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (3-3), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS PHILLY+3
LW, PHILLY was playing at MINN. MINN was on and beat PHILLY 38-20. PHILLY played catchup the whole game and never caught up. MINN would score after PHILLY so it was a bigger mountain to climb for PHILLY. The DEF for PHILLY gave up too much and didn’t make stops. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had a great day while PHILLY QB Carson Wentz had a good enough day but the PHILLY DEF needs to play better. RB Darren Sproles was out of this game and has a quadriceps strain but is on a week to week basis and could play this week vs DAL. LW, DAL let NYJ roll out to a 21-3 lead before finally waking up. Is NYJ QB Sam Darnold that good or is DAL QB Dak Prescott that bad? The DEF for DAL was atrocious and gave up plays that had you shaking your head. DAL played cathcup because the DAL DEF didn’t do its job. DAL has lost the last three games after winning the first three. But, who have they beaten? NYG, WASH & MIA, a big SO WHAT! This team may need a rest to regroup. DAL 4-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. Dak Prescott is not a good QB. He holds the ball too long and can’t hit a wide open receiver. He has problems reading DEFs. That will all come into play vs PHILLY. PHILLY is good at the rebound. These two teams know each other and PHILLY QB Carson Wentz is up for the challenge. DAL beat PHILLY 2x in 2018 so there is a little revenge for PHILLY on the menu. L12 DAL(H) vs PHILLY, PHILLY 7-5 SUATS. L24 DAL vs PHILLY, ROAD 16-9 ATS. L24 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 13-11 ATS. PHILLY 4-4 ATS L8 in 2nd of BB RG’s. PHILLY 25-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 15-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 21-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 9-10 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PHILLY 8-1 ATS AWAY w/conf revenge off DD ATS loss. PHILLY 1-7 ATS as a conf DOG off DD SU loss. PHILLY 9-6 ATS on SNF off a loss. PHILLY 1-10 ATS as a DOG in gms 5-8 vs .500>div opp. PHILLY 3-21 ATS in gms 5-8 .500> in an AWAY gm vs .500> opp. PHILLY 1-7 ATS as conf DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. DAL 31-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 38-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 17-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. DAL 14-11-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 7-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge of DD SU loss. DAL 10-11 ATS on SNF vs opp off a loss. Maybe the DAL DEF isn’t as good as we thought. PHILLY has the personnel to get back on track. This is a game that could come down to the wire and I like PHILLY’s chances here. Carson Wentz has tools around him and he should get the job done. If PHILLY WR DeSean Jackson is able to get on the field for this game, even as a decoy, he will bring added coverage that will open up areas for other receivers & RBs. DAL WR Randall Cobb is still questionable for this game with his bad back & WR Amari Cooper is questionable for this game with a thigh contusion & quadriceps injury. Without these guys, it’s a big hole in DAL OFF. Take the points here because I don’t see this game being a blowout by either team. It could go down to the wire with a fg deciding it.
THE PICK: PHILLY+3 5 STARS
Monday October 21st, 2019 8:15pm
NE Patriots (6-0), (4-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ NY Jets (1-4), (2-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS NYJ+9 ½
LW, on TNF NE didn’t have one of their best games but still beat NYG 35-14 and covered the 16 ½ pt spread. I liked NE because they have a great DEF & NYG was without some of their key players. Had NYG had their star players, the spread would have been smaller but I still would have picked NE because of their DEF. NE #1 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #3 RUSH DEF. NE DEF has so many ways that they can hurt you, they are just that good. LW, NYJ QB Sam Darnold came back from his mono and lead the NYJ to a 24-22 victory @HOME vs DAL. However, NYJ were up 21-3 and almost blew the game. If DAL hadn’t missed a fg earlier they would have had the win. At the end of the game, DAL would not have had to go for a 2pt conversion for the tie. Anyway, NYJ were playing a certain vigor that they haven’t had all season because Darnold was back. Darnold was looking sharp for a guy who hadn’t played in a month. He was able to spread the ball around nicely but, the run game has to get going or otherwise opposing DEFs will tee off on him. There’s no love between these two teams but you know NYJ are going to be revved up on PRIMETIME for this game. LB CJ Mosely is still questionable for this game which puts him doubtful he will play. The first time around these two teams played earlier in the season, NYJ scored no OFF tds but somehow managed to cover the 22 ½ pt spread. NE was up 30-0 when NE muffed a punt that was returned for a td and then the backup QB for NE, Jarrett Stidham threw a PICK6. Darnold will play better than that, we hope. L12 NYJ(H) vs NE, NYJ 4-8 SU but 7-5 ATS. L15 NYJ vs NE, NYJ 10-5 ATS. L18 NYJ vs NE, ROAD 9-9 ATS. NYJ Vs NE, ROAD 26-16-1 ATS L43. L19 NYJ(H) vs NE, NYJ 7-12 ATS. NYJ vs NE in OCT, NE 12-6 ATS. NYJ vs NE if DOG 7>pts L15, 9-6 ATS. NYJ 7-6 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB HG’s. NYJ 29-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 31-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 29-14 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NYJ 16-12 ATS L28 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 8-4 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYJ 10-2 ATS on MNF vs opp off BB SU wins. NYJ 22-4 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG vs div opp. NYJ 10-10-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. NE 35-20-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 47-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 21-21 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NE 6-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. NE 6-3-2 ATS L11 on MNF. NE 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 9-3-1 ATS after TNF. NE 3-6 ATS as a DIV ROAD FAV >8pts. NE 2-11 ATS in gms 5-8 as a FAV 3>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. NE 2-9 ATS as a FAV 7>pts off non-conf gm vs opp w/revenge. DAL is certainly not NE and Dak Prescott is not Tom Brady but NYJ & NE certainly don’t like each other. Now I’m not saying that NYJ are going to win outright but, I feel that NYJ will keep this game closer than the spread suggests. NYJ will be pumped to show that they can at least be competitive. The DEF has to keep Brady in check which is very hard to do. For NE, WRs Julian Edelman & Josh Gordon are questionable for this game with assorted ailments. WR Phillip Dorsett is questionable with his hamstring. TE Ben Watson was re-signed to give depth. For NYJ LB CJ Mosley said he will play which already uplifts the DEF. The HOME crowd will be into this game and Darnold has to play smart, like he did vs DAL. I like NE to win but, by a close margin. This should be an exciting game unless NYJ get turnoveridous early and it becomes a rout. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½ 5 STARS