2019 NFL WEEK 8
2019 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 8 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 28th, 2019 8:20pm
Washington Redskins (1-6), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) , (3-0) ATS WASH+15 ½
LW, MINN @HOME took it to DET. They beat DET 42-30. This game was 21-21 at the half but, MINN took control in the 3rd qtr and MINN never looked back. The DEF for MINN made some adjustments and gave up 1td & 1fg. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had another fine game going 24-34, 337 yds, 4tds, 0INTS & no fumbles. WR Stefon Diggs had 7 catches for 142 yds 0tds. Since WR Adam Thielen called out QB Kirk Cousins, MINN is 3-0 SUATS. A little airing out is good for the soul. Well, Cousins has definitely played better and more focused. RB Dalvin Cook also had a great day and ran 25x for 142 yds & 2tds. MINN ran all over DET. MINN #3 RUSH OFF vs WASH # 27 RUSH DEF. LW, WASH was stuck in a heavy downpour in WASH with SF. WASH lost the game 9-0 but the score should have been a lot worse. SF TE George Kittle slipped while making a cut and would have scored a td but, SF had to settle for a fg. The spread was SF-10 and I knew SF would win but I also figured they would cover but didn’t figure on the rain being so bad. The WASH season has been a big disappointment to say the least. Nothing has gone right. In some games WASH hasn’t even played competitively. At times, it has looked like they have just given up. The run game for WASH has certainly been a big disappointment but actually picked up in the last two games. However, it was vs MIA & in the rain vs SF. WASH O-Line has given up 18 sacks. That doesn’t sound like a lot but WASH QBs have thrown 8 INTs & fumbled 6x. Plus, the OFF hasn’t been that productive. WASH #29 TOT OFF vs MINN #6 TOT DEF. MINN can’t get too overconfident for this game because anything can happen. Cousins is playing well and should just stay focused and MINN will do fine. Take what the WASH DEF gives you, which is the whole field. L10 MINN vs WASH, MINN 6-4 SUATS. MINN 26-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 34-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 9-1 ATS as a HOME FAV >3pts off BB SU wins. MINN 9-6 ATS on TNF. MINN 5-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. WASH 24-35 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 30-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 11-1 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 9-4 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 0-5 ATS L5 on TNF. WASH 2-5 ATS on TNF. WASH 2-8 ATS off SU loss vs opp of DD SU win. MINN WR Adam Thielen will be out for this game with a hamstring injury. This is sort of a reunion for two WASH players, QB Case Keenum & RB Adrian Peterson. I’m sure they would like to do their best and win the game but, they have a very big hill to climb. Peterson will be playing with a Grade 1 high ankle sprain & a Grade 2 low ankle sprain and his status for this game is hazy. WASH QB Case Keenum was discarded when MINN went all in for Cousins after he took them to the NFC Championship game. They will try to take it to MINN but, they will also try to do too much and that will lead to turnovers. On the other side of the field, Cousins is playing against the team that basically discarded him too so, if you think there is no revenge here and it’s just another game for Cousins, you are truly mistaken. He would like nothing better than to trounce WASH and have a great game. Lay the points here as MINN is on a roll and WASH might just start to unload players after this game because their season is going nowhere. If MINN can’t seriously beat this team convincingly, they can’t serious be considered a good team. The DEF for MINN needs to create some turnovers.
THE PICK: MINN-15 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 27th, 2019 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (5-2), (3-4) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-6), (1-6) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS ATL+3 ½
LW, SEA was shell shocked @HOME by BALT & QB Lamar Jackson. He ran wild all over SEA and beat then badly. At times it looked like SEA would contain Jackson by shadowing him with LB Bobby Wagner. It worked but didn’t stick to the game plan and Jackson burned SEA. Jackson ran for 116 yds which was more than the whole SEA team, 106 yds. BALT won the game 30-16. SEA QB Russell Wilson unexpectedly threw a PICK6 which changed the course of the game and BALT took over in the third qtr. SEA played catchup to no avail. LW, ATL was never in the game vs LAR @ATL. ATL could use a rest to regroup. ATL 5-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. I knew that LAR’s season was up if they didn’t get back on track and get this win. Plus, they knocked ATL QB Matt Ryan out with an ankle injury. Then if it isn’t enough, on Monday night, ATL traded WR Mohamed Sanu to NE. Has the fire sale started in ATL? Things haven’t gone right for ATL and it’s like the Titanic down there. The running game works for ATL but, when you’re way behind you have to abandon it. The problem is that ATL is a pass first, run second OFF, no doubt about it. It is not balanced and opposing DEFs know that. Their DEF is invisible and the guys that they have are not producing. DE/LB Vic Beasely, remember him? I mention him from time to time because after his ALL-PRO season of 2016 all he has done consistently is cash big paychecks. He is virtually invisible. The secondary for ATL gets torched on a regular basis by anyone with a pulse. The OFF has become predictable and now they have Matt Schaub filling in at QB. ATL HC Dan (not so mighty) Quinn was supposed to be a DEF guru but has a DEF that consistently misses assignments and gets burned. ATL #27 TOT DEF w/ATL #28 PASS DEF & #20 RUSH DEF. SEA QB Russell Wilson took the BALT game as a learning experience and walks away smarter. But he knows it’s the SEA DEF that let SEA down. They didn’t contain Jackson. But this week, SEA DEF won’t have to worry because Schaub and Ryan are as mobile as the Statue of Liberty. SEA secondary has been getting beat but the D-LINE has to keep their pressure and containment. L8 ATL vs SEA, ATL 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS. SEA 9-8-1 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 26-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 20-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 2-7 ATS L9 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 1-7 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. ATL 10-3 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. ATL 1-9 ATS L10 in 2nd of BB HG’s. ATL 26-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 34-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 1-6 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. SEA is on a bounceback and what better way to bounce back, then against a team with no DEF. Plus, ATL is getting worse as the weeks go by. ATL will start unloading high priced players and look to rebuild in the off season, I guarantee it. There may be some other players moved by ATL before this game takes place. But for now, I like SEA here to bounce back and take care of business in ATL. With the addition of S Quandre Diiggs who was acquired from DET for a draft pick, this should definitely help the secondary of SEA. Lay the points here as SEA gets back to their winning ways.
THE PICK: SEA-3 ½ 5 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4), (2-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS PHILLY+1 ½
On SNF, PHILLY was manhandled by DAL in DAL 37-10. It was close when the score was 14-7 but after that PHILLY couldn’t stop DAL whether it was rushing or passing. Plus their OFF seemed to be so out of sync, they didn’t look prepared. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz looked shell shocked and had 2lost fumbles and an INT. His 2 lost fumbles led to 2tds by DAL. It was 27-7 at the half and you could have turned you sets off there. The PHILLY DEF was torched on the ground for 189 yds. This was a RUSH DEF that was in the top 5 before LW. PHILLY looked awful on both sides of the ball and also looked unprepared. LW, BUFF let a heavily under-dogged MIA team take the lead @BUFF before BUFF woke up. MIA wasn’t going to hold on to the win but BUFF disappointed people by not even coming close to covering the 17pt spread. It was very bad that BUFF actually had to play catchup in the 4th qtr to pull out the win. BUFF’s record is very deceiving. They have beaten @NYJ, @NYG, CINNCY, @TENN & MIA. They have a combined record of 6-27. Their one loss was vs NE. PHILLY is in the middle of that pack. BUFF OFF gets very lucky and sometimes they are given gifts. CB Orlando Scandrick was released after the DAL game and it’s about time because, this guy is terrible. Wentz has to use the tools around him and try not to do too much all the time. I want to see PHILLY RB Jordan Howard have a big game. PHILLY 25-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 15-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 13-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. PHILLY 17-5 ATS L22 vs non-conf opps. PHILLY 10-3 ATS as a DOG after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. PHILLY 11-2 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 3-7 ATS L10 after DAL. PHILLY 6-0 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off DD SU win. PHILLY 2-13 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 7-6 ATS L13 in 2nd of BB G’s. BUFF 4-7 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HG’s. BUFF 27-28-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 22-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 10-2 ATS in gms 5-8 vs NFC opp. BUFF 2-10 ATS @HOME in gms 5-8 vs opp off DD SU loss. BUFF QB Josh Allen is a gunslinger and PHILLY HC Doug Pederson has to bait this guy into thinking that the path is clear for his passes. The PHILLY DEF has to confuse Allen and cause him to make mistakes for them to capitalize. PHILLY needs this game. This game could go either way depending on which BUFF team shows up. PHILLY is going to shore up their game after getting blown out by DAL on SNF. They need to attack the BUFF DEF and stop the BUFF OFF cold otherwise their season is over. In other words, this is a desperation game for PHILLY and they have to win. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz has to step up here. Take PHILLY & the almost PICK’EM game here.
THE PICK: PHILLY+1 ½ 3 STARS
LA Chargers (2-5), (1-6) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-3), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS
LW, TENN beat LAC only because LAC HC Anthony Lynn is incompetent & QB Philip Rivers is gutless. With 1st & goal at the TENN 1yard line with :39 seconds left, all they had to do to score a td and win the game with a QB sneak. But instead, it was a series of calamities that led to a fumble and a lost game. That is why they are terrible. The only way QB Philip Rivers gets into the Hall of Fame is if he buys a ticket. What the CHARGERS did in 2018 is starting to look like a season that was very lucky because this season they have regressed and can’t do anything right. They certainly can’t beat anyone having lost games @DET, HOU, DEN, PITT & LW @TENN. Their only two wins were @MIA & barely INDY. LAC DE Melvin Ingram’s absence has wrecked havoc on a D-LINE that sacking QBs left and right in 2018. Without him, the team is not as effective at putting pressure on opposing QBs. He has sat out the last three games with an injured hamstring and is still questionable for this game. LW, CHI was completely outmatched by the visiting SAINTS. Mind you that it was QB Teddy Bridgewater for NO & not Drew Brees. But the final score of NO 36-25 does not tell the whole tale. The score was 36-10 late in the 4th qtr when CHI got busy and scored two dummy tds and made the final score what it is. QB Mitch Trubisky was nicknamed Mitch Toorisky. CHI #29 PASS OFF vs LAC #5 PASS DEF. This guy is pretty bad even though he has many tools around him. His stats for this game are bloated because the last two drives were in garbage time. CHI rushed for a total of 17 yds vs NO so it was mostly put on Mitch’s shoulders which, unfortunately he did not deliver. L3 CHI vs LAC, CHI 2-1 SUATS. LAC 5-6-1 ATS !NL L13 in 2nd of BB RG’s. LAC 28-35 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 17-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAC 6-1 ATS L7 as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 6-1 ATS as a RD off BB SU losses vs .500<opp. LAC 11-0 ATS a s DOG<5pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. LAC 10-1 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 5-9-1 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB HG’s. CHI 21-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 12-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 17-6 ATS (H) vs AFC WEST. CHI 10-2 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU loss vs opp off AWAY gm. CHI 1-8 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs 750>opp. Honestly, this game is a toss up because anything could happen. Both teams could get sloppy and the game could be excruciating or it could become a shootout and it could turn exciting. Both teams need a win desperately as LAC is on a 3 game losing streak while CHI has a 2 game losing streak. LAC has better weapons on OFF than CHI because Rivers knows how to use them,(not last week though). I don’t see this game being a blow out by either team but the points do matter here. Rivers is a better QB than Trubisky, not by much, but he should have the ware withal to get the job done. Maybe CHI will run the ball. Take the points here as LAC wins outright with a good mixture of the run and pass.
THE PICK: LAC+4 3 STARS
NY Giants (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (2-3-1), (4-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS NYG+6 ½
LW, NYG looked terrible. QB Daniel Jones had 2 lost fumbles and 1INT. His turnovers led to 17 ARZ points. If this guy doesn’t learn better ball handling skills, NYG will be bad for a long time. ARZ kept NYG RB Saquon Barkley wrapped up for most of the game and sacked Jones 8x. Jones looks like he has regressed since beating WASH. NYG Pat Shurmur is not a good coach and not a good evaluator of talent. He also doesn’t know how to motivate players, plus his play calling is suspect. That said, NYG has their hands full @DET this week. DET is coming off a loss @HOME vs MINN. It was an embarrassing loss on the home turf and DET needs to change some things to get going in the right direction. DET gave it a good run tying the score at half 21-21 but, MINN pulled away in the 2nd half and DET couldn’t catch up. MINN has too many weapons and they are now on a mission. Also, this week, DET sent S Quandre Diggs to SEA for a draft pick. Honestly, that doesn’t matter in this game vs NYG. But what does matter is that RB Kerryon Johnson had knee surgery and will be out for some time. RBs JD McKissic & Ty Johnson need to get it going to take that pressure off of QB Matthew Stafford. This is the matchup I like. DET #8 TOT OFF vs NYG #28 TOT DEF. DET is on a 3game losing streak and their season is on the brink. They have not had a game where they physically beat anyone up yet in 2019. This is that game. If DET does not win this game, their season is over. DET HC Matt Patricia is supposed to be a defensive guru but so far the DET DEF is horrible. DET #31 TOT DEF. Adjustments need to be made for DET and they need to stop NYG RB Saquon Barkley from doing any damage in this game. L7 DET vs NYG, DET 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. ROAD TEAM 5-2 ATS. DET 5-3-2 ATS L10 in 2nd of BB HG’s. DET 23-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 15-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 16-20-1 ATS L37 (H) vs non-div. DET 3-9 ATS L12 after MINN. DET 12-1 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. DET 2-9 ATS L11 after div HOME gm. NYG 26-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 34-19-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 14-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 2-5 ATS L7 before DAL. NYG 6-7 ATS before DIV HOME gm. NYG 9-1 ATS as RD >5pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 8-1 ATS AWAY in gms 5-8 vs non-div opp off SUATS loss. NYG 1-6 ATS L7 before MNF. This is a desperation game for DET. NYG is just plain terrible and going through the motions. But DET can’t have another losing season under Patricia because it will look like the team is not improving at all. The schedule for DET is tough and this is one of the easier games for them to get back on track. DET DEF needs to bait NYG Daniel Jones. He is a rookie and most rookies make mistakes. The secondary for DE has quality guys that have been around & CB Darrius Slay is one of them. CB Justin Coleman is another one who needs to step it up as well. This game could be a shootout but I suspect that DET will run the table because of the desperate situation that they are in. Lay the points here as DET rolls.
THE PICK: DET-6 ½ 5 STARS
TB Bucs (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS TB+2 ½
LW, TENN beat LAC only because LAC HC Anthony Lynn is incompetent & QB Philip Rivers is gutless. But in retrospect to TENN, QB Ryan Tannehill who hadn’t started a game since last season did pretty well for himself in getting the win for TENN. He only had a 1turnover (1INT), threw for 2tds and passes for 312 yds. The running game got going and RB Derrick Henry rushed for 90 yds & 1td. All in all it’s a win and TENN needed it even though they were very lucky. TB is coming off a bye. TB 2-9-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they were beaten badly by CAR in London. It was technically a HOME gm for TB but it might as well been a home game for CAR because CAR beat TB pretty bad. TB QB Jameis Winston had 5 INTS, 1 lost fumble and was sacked 7x. All in all, a very bad day. This game had a disaster written all over it because TB DEF was on the field too much and couldn’t stop CAR RB Christian McCaffrey. Plus the fact that it was payback for an earlier CAR loss on TNF, 2nd week of the season. Winston has to bounce back even though neither one of these teams is making the playoffs. HC Bruce Arians has been known as the QB whisperer but he certainly has his work cut out for him with Winston. L3 TB vs TENN, TB 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS. TB 12-6 ATS L18 in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 19-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 23-35-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 18-16-2 ATS L36 AWAY vs non-div. TB 9-3 ATS vs non-conf opp off SUATS win. TB 10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s vs <600 opp. TENN 12-5 ATS vs NFC SOUTH. TENN 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH <500 opp. TENN 4-7-1 ATS L12 in 2nd of BB HG’s. TENN 30-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 28-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. There is a lot of work to be done on both of these teams are neither one seems to be able to get any kind of consistency going. This is another one of those games that could go either way depending on a turnover. Ryan Tannehill is trying to get himself back to a starting position and Winston is just trying to get better. This game has the makings of a shootout but this week TEEN goes down after escaping vs LAC. Take the points here.
THE PICK: TB+2 ½ 3 STARS
Denver Broncos (2-5), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-2), (5-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS DEN+5 ½
On TNF, DEN looked terrible @HOME vs KC. DEN QB Joe Flacco was sacked 8x and had a fumble which was recovered by KC and advanced for a td. After DEN scored on the opening drive, KC came back with a td and then poured it on with sacks and DEF. DEN looked like they couldn’t do anything right. Flacco looks like the statue of liberty and his passes looks lethargic as well. He’s aged as a QB & GM John Elway is doing a lot of head scratching these days. The DEN run game really couldn’t get going because they dug themselves such a big hole that running would have been a waste of time. It was a route by KC and DEN never was in the game. LW, INDY @HOME took it to HOU. Some way, no matter how HOU is doing, they can’t get past INDY. HOU looked lost. INDY took total advantage of it. INDY QB Jacoby Brissett threw 4tds, 0INTS, was sacked 1x but did have a lost fumble. He spread the ball nicely around so the HOU DEF was kept guessing. Brissett has gotten comfortable being the starter for INDY without having to look over his shoulder. I always said in past seasons that this guy would do well if given the opportunity. The INDY DEF kept HOU to fgs when the score was too much for HOU to comeback from. HOU played catchup the whole game. L10 INDY vs DEN, INDY 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS. INDY 4-6 ATS L10 in 2nd of BB HG’s. INDY 28-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 30-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 6-1 ATS L7 after HOU. DEN 24-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 24-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 6-10 ATS AWAY after KC. DEN 10-2 after TNF. DEN 6-2 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 5-0 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. DEN 15-2 ATS w/rest off SUATS loss. INDY RB Marlon Mack has certainly taken a lot of pressure off of Brissett with his good season so far. INDY #10 RUSH OFF vs DEN #16 RUSH DEF. INDY DEF cannot let DEN OFF get into a rhythm or otherwise they will be chasing DEN. Flacco gets rocked easily so INDY DEF has to keep up the pressure. DEN DEF may look good on paper but, they haven’t delivered. Plus, with the trade of WR Emmanuel Sanders to SF, what other receivers does Flacco have to throw to? Sanders was the #2 but now DEFs can focus more attention on DEN #1 WR Courtland Sutton. Will Flacco adjust? Lay the points here because DEN is undermatched and INDY is on a roll.
THE PICK: INDY-5 ½ 3 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (0-7), (3-4) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LA Rams (London) (4-3), (4-2-1) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS CINNCY +13
LW, LAR was my PICK of the WEEK because ATL doesn’t have a DEF and their OFF has become predictable. On top of that if LAR didn’t win, their season was over. They played well on both sides of the ball and beat up ATL 37-10 like they weren’t even there. Plus, there were able to knock ATL QB Matt Ryan out of the game and have Matt Schaub come in, he’s worse than Ryan. LAR DEF was able to neutralize the ATL receivers and that was the key to the game. The OFF for LAR was moving & RB Todd Gurley looked very mobile, catching passes out of the backfield. LW, CINNCY really didn’t have a chance vs JAGS. They might of thought they did, but they didn’t. CINNCY is just so inept on both sides of the ball. CINNCY #27 TOT OFF w/#32 RUSH OFF. CINNCY #32 TOT DEF w/#32 RUSH DEF. LW, CINNCY gave up 216 yds rushing to JAGS. In return, CINNCY rushed for 33 yds. You’re not going to win many games when you have stats like that. Has, LAR OFF got back in syc? They did last week and the DEF contributed well. CINNCY RB Joe Mixon can’t seem to get started. But in his DEF, the CINNCY O-LINE has been terrible. CINNCY QB Andy Dalton is having a tough season because a lot of his receivers have been hurt. WR AJ Green can’t come back soon enough but he will not play in this one. LAR #9 TOT DEF. Both teams will be heading into byes after this game. LAR 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CINNCY could definitely use the team to see what they have that might work going forward. CINNCY 7-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CINNCY HC Zac Taylor probably didn’t think it would be this hard. This is a little bit of a reunion for the two HCs because Zac Taylor was an Assistant coach under LAR in 2017-2018. L3 LAR vs CINNCY, CINNCY 3-0 SU & 1-1-1 ATS. LAR 24-16 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 29-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 18-19 ATS L37 as a HF. LAR 16-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. LAR 13-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win vs opp off DD SU loss. LAR 6-0 ATS as a HF 2>pts vs .250<non-div opp. LAR 12-3 ATS vs non div opp off 3+losses (last by DD). LAR 10-1 as a FAV in gms 5-8 vs opp off DD SU loss. LAR 6-0 ATS as a non-div HF >3pts vs .250<opp. LAR 8-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 22-37 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 30-42 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 8-4 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 6-9 ATS AWAY off BB SUL losses. CINNCY 2-12 ATS in gms 5-8 when <.500 off a HOME gm. CINNCY 3-10 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. WR Tyler Boyd has become Dalton’s FAV receiver due to attrition but LAR DEF will be all over him. Look for LAR CB Jalen Ramsey to be all over him. CINNCY is worse than ATL & Dalton is worse than Ryan so LAR should blow this game out. The OFF & DEF should be working in sync and CINNCY should be scratching their heads during and after the game. I don’t see CINNCY doing much in this game because LAR knows they have to keep winning to be in the playoff mix. Lay the points here as LAR rolls all over CINNCY. Tally Ho!
THE PICK: LAR-13 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ NO Saints (6-1), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS ARZ+9 ½
LW, ARZ beat up a bad NYG team. ARZ took advantage of NYG QB Daniel Jones every way they could. The ARZ DEF forced Jones into 1INT & 2 lost fumbles. ARZ turned it into 17 points. ARZ had their own problems with a blocked punt by NYG turned into a td. But, ARZ kept NYG RB Saquon Barkley wrapped up for most of the game and sacked Jones 8x. Jones looks like he has regressed since beating WASH. RB Chase Edmonds was another star for ARZ, rushing 27x for 126 yds & 3tds. ARZ QB Kyler Murray only completed 14 passes vs NYG. That won’t get it done vs NO. ARZ DEF also has problems with better teams. ARZ #29 TOT DEF. ARZ lost @BALT, CAR & SEA who have better Offenses. NO beat up CHI @CHI pretty bad. The score was 36-10 in the 4th qtr and CHI scored two dummy garbage time tds to make the final score look respectable at 36-25. But don’t kid yourself, NO outplayed CHI in every aspect and had CHI QB Mitch Trubisky talking to himself. NO QB Teddy Bridgewater has been everything NO HC Sean Payton could have asked for. Teddy has been 5-0 and thrown 9tds while only throwing 2INTs. Drew Brees would like to play SUN but considering NO has a bye, that would give him 2 weeks more to recover and come back strong vs ATL. NO 8-4 ATS since 2007, wk before their bye. That would be a great tune up game. L5 NO vs ARZ, NO 3-2 SUATS. However, (H) 4-1 SUATS. NO 30-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 35-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 34-30-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 19-3 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. NO 6-7 ATS L13 vs NFC WEST. NO 6-7 ATS L13 @HOME off DD SU win. NO 10-0 ATS in gms 5-8 as a FAV vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. NO 11-0 ATS L11 off SU DOG win. ARZ 6-5 ATS L11 in 2nd of BB RG’s. ARZ 19-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 34-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 17-2-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 8-1 ATS as a non div ROAD DOG >7pts vs .700>opp. ARZ 1-6 ATS before SF. If Teddy Bridgewater knows that this may be his last start, he is certainly going to make it a good one. The DEF for NO has been swarming and DE Cameron Jordan has been leading the way with 7.0 sacks. Also in RB Alvin Kamara’s absence, RB Latavius Murray had a big day vs CHI, rushing for 119 yds and catching 5 passes. He will certainly be utilized vs ARZ if Kamara is still not available because of his ankle. ARZ is not that good having beaten CINNCY, ATL & NYG. Lay the points here as Teddy Bridgewater lights it up.
THE PICK: NO-9 ½ 5 STARS
NY Jets (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS NYJ+6
NYJ QB Sam Darnold would probably like to forget the game on MNF vs NE. I’m sure that every JET fan and the rest of the JETS team would like to forget the game as they were whitewashed by NE 33-0. Darnold threw 4INTS & had 1 lost fumble. On top of that, he said he saw ghosts. Catalogue this game with the butt fumble. Only the JETS could be this bad. It was a disaster for HC Adam Gase. Let’s see how he reacts and rebounds from this experience. LW, JAGS took it to CINNCY. They were up 27-10 and you could turn your sets off there. JAGS rushed for 219 yds vs CINNCY and were always in control of the game. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew is a quick learner and he is making the right decisions but still has a lot to learn. He has lost vs some good teams and beaten the bad teams. NYJ are a better team with Darnold but they have to prove it. NYJ RB Le’Veon Bell has yet to rush for 100 yds in a game this season, so he’s itching to break out. The receivers for NYJ have to show Darnold that they can count on them to get them down the field. They have to catch the ball better. The DEF for NYJ has to make plays. JAGS #21 RUSH DEF. Darnold must have a better game. I don’t think JAGS RB Leonard Fournette will go hog wild like he did vs CINNCY. L8 NYJ vs JAGS, NYJ 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS. NYJ 4-9 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. NYJ 27-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 31-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 14-3 as a DOG >1pt after scoring 7<pts. NYJ 3-13 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 1-9 ATS AWAY off SU div loss vs non-div opp. JAGS 8-9 ATS L17 in 1st of BB HG’s. JAGS 12-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAG 16-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 7-10 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. JAGS 1-10 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU non-div win vs <.500 opp. JAGS 2-13 ATS in gms 5-8 when <.500 vs <.500 opp off SUATS loss. JAGS 2-13 ATS off DD SU win vs .400<opp. JAGS have problems with consistency. One game they look good, next game they look bad on both sides of the ball. I like this game to go down to the wire. Darnold will be practicing harder this week and focusing better after his very bad game vs NE and his ghost comment. This game will certainly be closer than the spread but I like JAGS to come out on top, just not covering the spread. JAGS haven’t really shown anything this season except some excitement. But, that doesn’t necessarily turn into wins. Take the points here as NYJ keeps it close.
THE PICK: NYJ+6 3 STARS
Sunday October 27th, 2019 4:00pm
Carolina Panthers (4-2), (4-1-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ SF 49ers (6-0), (4-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS CAR+5 ½
CAR QB Kyle Allen has been playing very well. In the four games that he has started in place of Cam Newton, he is 4-0, thrown 7tds, 0INTS but had 6fumbles. CAR’s season looks very promising after starting out 0-2. CAR is coming off a bye. CAR 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye they played @TB which was actually in London and beat up TB pretty bad. TB QB Janeis Winston had 5INTS, 1 lost fumble and was sacked 7x. The DEF made so many plays in that game that the CAR OFF had mostly short fields to which to work from. It was 34-10 in the 4th qtr and you could have turned your sets off there. TB scored garbage time points to make the score look close. LW, SF was @WASH. I liked SF-10 because I knew SF would win but I definitely thought they would cover. But the weather and the crazy rain had other ideas. SF kicked 3fgs and won 9-0. SF TE George Kittle slipped when making a cut and probably would have walked into the endzone but SF settled on a fg. Anyway, SF has been playing well. And even took it to LAR two weeks ago, The DEF has been playing better and so has QB Jimmy Garrapolo who came back this season from a torn ACL. SF #2 TOT DEF w/#1 PASS DEF & #7 RUSH DEF. SF acquired WR Emmanuel Sanders from DEN to bolster their receiving corps. SF has a number of RBs that have been getting the job done. RB Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman & Raheem Mostert have been taking a lot of pressure off of Jimmy G. CAR RB Christian McCaffrey has been a one man wrecking crew. But it opens the door for others as opposing DEFs may be focused on him. L6 CAR vs SF, CAR 6-0 SUATS. CAR 31-19 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 34-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 1-6 ATS L7 w/rest vs .500>opp. CAR 10-2 ATS .500> & as a DOG in gms 5-8 vs opp off away gm. SF 6-6-1 ATS L13 in 1st of BB HG’s. SF 40-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 28-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 2-9 ATS L11 before ARZ. S 6-0 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666>non div opp. SF 5-13-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 2-6 ATS L8 vs NFC SOUTH. CAR will have to make a big decision soon. Do they keep starting QB Kyle Allen or start QB Cam Newton? This week CAR won’t have to answer that question but there’s always next week. I like this agme to be closer than the spread because CAR has a way of sneaking up on you and Kyle Allen has been playing smart. SF is due for a loss and if they lose a game it should be this one. They could always bounce back next week @ARZ. But for this week, this should be a god game that goes down to the wire. A fg either way should decide it.
THE PICK: CAR+5 ½ 5 STARS
Cleveland Browns (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (7-0), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS CLEVE+11 ½
On MNF, NE beat up NYJ like they weren’t even there. NYJ QB Sam Darnold might as well have been wearing a PATS uniform because he threw 4INTS & had 1 lost fumble. He said he was seeing ghosts. Add this one to the butt fumble game. NE won 33-0 and the score could have been a lot worse. The JETS were handing NE scoring opportunities all night. Then to make matters worse for the rest of the league, after the game NE acquires WR Mohamed Sanu from ATL for a draft pick. The rich get richer. The receivers corps for NE are banged up but Brady can win with anyone. However, NE brings in a proven guy to upgrade and add to the already steady hands that find a way to catch everything thrown to them. Plus, RBs banged up? No problem, they are so deep at the position that they don’t miss a beat. Plus, the RBs for NE pass block, not like on other teams where they don’t block or don’t want to block. I don’t know if Brady even broke a sweat during this game. Not only did NE beat the JETS, the JETS DEF was their usual disappointing self in helping to beat themselves. On top of that, NE #1 TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF & #2 RUSH DEF. They also have 26 sacks & 18 INTS. Some teams don’t have that for a full season. CLEVE is coming off a bye. CLEVE 6-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they lost @HOME to SEA. In that game, CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield had 3INTS. CLEVE was up 20-6 but because of futility & mistakes, could not improve upon their lead and SEA was able to rally back & again late in the game to win 32-28. Now they face NE. CLEVE RB Nick Chubb has been doing a good job and trying to take some pressure off of Mayfield. But, you know that NE DEF will focus on him and put it all on Mayfield’s shoulders. How will the CLEVE DEF stop NE OFF? CLEVE #23 TOT DEF w/#6 PASS DEF & #30 RUSH DEF. NE never takes any team lightly so, they will approach them like they do any other team. L5 NE vs CLEVE, NE 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. NE 34-28-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 48-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 25-9-3 ATS L37 (H) vs non-div. NE 15-1 ATS L16 off div RD gm vs non-div opp. NE 1-5 ATS L6 after MNF. NE 8-1 ATS L9 @HOME after allowing 10<pts. NE 18-12-3 ATS as a HF 7>pts. NE 7-1-1 ATS L8 vs AFC NORTH. CLEVE 7-10-1 ATS L18 in 1st of BB RG’s. CLEVE 15-23-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEVE 25-35-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEVE 1-9 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. Mayfield is a true gunslinger and this week he will try to match wits with Brady. Not a chance. NE DEF will shut down WR Odell Beckham. CB Stephon Gilmore will be all over him and Mayfield will, of course, try to get it in their and throw an INT. This game has blowout written all over it for the simple fact that Mayfield will try to make something out of nothing and the NE DEF will be waiting. They will bait him into thinking guys are open and he will deliver right into their hands. Lay the points here as NE delivers another blowout.
THE PICK: NE-11 ½ 5 STARS
Oakland Raiders (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS OAK+6 ½
LW, INDY @HOME took it to HOU. No matter who is playing for INDY, they have a spell on HOU. HOU can play tough but, it seems that they can’t get past INDY. HOU played catchup all game vs INDY and couldn’t make plays on DEF to stop the INDY express. HOU is a very inconsistent team in that some games they will beat teams up, like KC, then they fall flat on their faces vs CAR & INDY. Just when you think they have turned the corner moving forward, they take a step backwards. LW OAK was actually going toe to toe with GB until OAK QB Derek Carr thought he was Superman. He scrambled on a play deep inside the GB 5 yard line towards the endzone and made a careless rookie mistake. He reached out and tried to hit the pylon with the football. Instead he fumbled the ball forward & away into the endzone for a touchback for GB. At the time, GB was leading 14-10 and the td would have made the score 17-14 OAK. GB scored on that next possession to make the score 21-10 and OAK never got caught up. The momentum swung the other way and the game was out of OAK reach. Final score GB 42-24. On the other hand the DEF for OAK was worse. Aaron Rodgers had a perfect day only missing 6 passes but threw for 429 yards 5tds, 0INTS & 0 fumbles. OAK DEF sacked Rodgers 1x. It was a clinic by Rodgers and he tore the OAK DEF apart. L10 HOU vs OAK, HOU 6-4 SUATS. HOU 16-17-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 13-18-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 11-5 ATS before JAGS. HOU 11-8 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 7-3 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS as a FAV off a loss >4pts under HC Bill O’Brien. HOU 21-8-2 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600<opp. HOU 10-1 ATS when a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. HOU 1-8 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. OAK 7-6-2 ATS L15 in 2nd of BB RG’s. OAK 30-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. OAK 35-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. OAK 7-1 ATS L8 vs AFC SOUTH. OAK 9-0 ATS AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. HOU needs a blowout game to bounce back and they have the OFF to do it. OAK is not a bounceback team and has beaten CHI, @INDY & DEN. HOU WR Will Fuller is out with an injured hamstring but, WR Kenny Stills can do the job. QB Deshaun Watson has to be patient by taking what the OAK DEF gives him and spreading the ball around. HOU needs to get their run game going even if OAK is good vs the run. OAK #5 RUSH DEF. Look for HOU RB Carlos Hyde to get busy early. HOU has to contain OAK RB Josh Jacobs because this guy can run. HOU #4 RUSH DEF. This game could be a shootout in the air. But, I like HOU because they need to get back on track and have another one of those blowout games. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 27th, 2019 8:20pm
GB Packers (6-1), (5-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ KC Chiefs (5-2), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS KC+4 ½
On TNF, KC totally dismantled DEN @DEN. DEN was terrible and KC took advantage of every opportunity. The KC DEF made some adjustments and DEN QB Joe Flacco was under siege all night. KC DEF sacked Flacco 8x and caused him to fumble 3x with one of those fumbles being picked up for an easy td. KC DEF showed up against a crappy team that is ill equipped to fend off any team with talent. DEN has beaten no one and Flacco has become below average as exhibited by his performance on national TV. But in the process of their 30-6 win, KC QB Pat Mahomes injured his knee and will be out for a number of weeks. So, Matt Moore comes in and delivers for KC. Matt hadn’t even been in football in 2018 but did the job for KC vs DEN & now faces a revved up GB team. LW, GB dismantled an OAK team that I thought would keep the game a little closer. With GB up 14-10 and OAK driving, OAK QB Derek Carr made a BIG rookie mistake. He scrambled and ran to try to touch the pylon at the endzone but instead as replay would show, he fumbled the ball into the endzone for a touchback for GB. GB subsequently too the ball and scored a td to make it 21-10. So instead of the score being 17-14 OAK, it was 21-10 GB, a big swing. Turn your sets off there because while OAK was deflated, GB turned on the juice for a 42-24 win. It wasn’t even that close. OAK did rush the ball nicely but, they were playing catchup the whole game so their stats don’t reflect the score. The GB DEF made the stops necessary from letting OAK get back into the game. GB QB Aaron Rodgers had a perfect day, 25-31, 429 yards, 5tds, 0INTs, 0 fumbles and was sacked only 1x. He shredded the OAK DEF. Let’s see what he does here. The running game for GB should do well vs KC. WR Devante Adams has missed the previous three games with turf toe and is still questionable but, if he plays in this game, look out. L3 GB vs KC, GB 2-1 SUATS. GB 6-7 ATS L13 in 1st of BB RG’s. GB 32-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 31-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 12-11 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 12-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. GB 0-6 ATS as a FAV >4pts after scoring 40>pts. GB 11-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. GB 7-1 ATS in gms 5-8 off DD ATS HOME win vs .500> opp. GB 7-9 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. KC 5-5 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. KC 6-6 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. KC 35-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 23-24-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. KC 2-5-1 ATS as a DOG on SNF. KC 8-4 ATS @HOME on SNF. KC 11-2 ATS @HOME vs 666>non-div opp. KC 1-7 ATS as a DOG after allowing 7<pts. KC 6-1 ATS as a non conf HOME DOG. KC 8-0 ATS as a HOME DOG >2pts off SU win vs opp off SU win. KC 6-1 ATS vs .700>opp. KC 0-4 ATS as a DOG >3pts after allowing 7<pts. Aaron Rodgers will shred the KC DEF like he did the OAK DEF. This was originally supposed to be a marquee matchup but it will be a lesson on how Rodgers takes care of a DEF that is not there. KC DEF #25 TOT DEF w/#9 PASS DEF & #29 RUSH DEF. KC may try to run the ball to take some pressure off of Moore with RB LeaSean McCoy but GB will be ready. There hasn’t been any consistency with KC in 2019 and w/o Mahomes it makes them even more unpredictable. Lay the points here as Rodgers & CO has another field day.
THE PICK: GB-4 ½ 5 STARS
Monday October 28th, 2019 8:15pm
Miami Dolphins (0-6), (2-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4), (3-2-1) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-1-1) ATS MIA+14 ½
LW, MIA made a valiant attempt to win their 1st game of 2018 game @BUFF. MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played a good game considering what the rest of the MIA team consists of. If it wasn’t for an explosion by BUFF in the 4th qtr MIA may have had the upset. BUFF was a heavy FAV but did not cover. MIA is stockpiling draft picks and MIA has let it be known that RB Kenyon Drake is available. However, there are guys on this team that are playing for jobs and they do play hard. BUFF ended up scoring 22 pts in the 4th qtr for a 31-21 win. Some mistakes by MIA down the stretch cost them the game. PITT is coming off a bye. PITT 5-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye they were @LAC on SNF and took it to LAC good. The score was 24-0 PITT into the 4th qtr and LAC made a failed shot at a comeback and the score ended at 24-17. PITT looked good in that game but let LAC think they had a shot which is no good. The DEF for PITT let up in the 4th qtr as the OFF also stalled. PITT QB Devlin Hodges filled in nicely for QB Mason Rudolph who was out with a concussion. Rudolph will start this game but PITT has not had a good season to say the least. Plus, Rudolph is going once around the NFL, which means, he is still learning his way. He will be prone to mistakes and is due for a bad game. Even if MIA stinks they gave BUFF & WASH trouble their last 2 games. L7 MIA vs PITT, MIA 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS. MIA 6-8 ATS L14 in 2nd of BB RG’s. MIA 31-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 33-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 17-10 ATS L27 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 4-11 ATS L15 off a div RD gm. MIA 2-8 ATS L10 on MNF. MIA 3-11 ATS as a RD on MNF. PITT 5-7 ATS L12 in 1st of BB HG’s. PITT 37-18-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 46-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 14-7 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. PITT 6-6 ATS L12 on MNF. PITT 1-10 ATS L11 as a FAV >10pts. PITT 1-6 ATS as a FAV 2>pts w/rest. PITT will win this game but not cover the BIG SPREAD. Somehow or someway, either with a back door cover or just playing PITT tough MIA will cover this game. PITT has also been known to lose games outright when they were heavy FAVS. PITT is not so good that they deserve this spread. Both of these teams have major holes. MIA has nothing to lose and Fitzpatrick has games where he plays well. This may be one of them. Take the points here as everyone will probably be siding with PITT. This game will be interesting to say the least.
THE PICK: MIA+14 ½ 3 STARS