2020 NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Sunday January 24^th, 2021 3:05pm

(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers            TB+3  

LW, GB @HOME took it to the LAR, 32-18. The reason why I picked LAR in that game was because LAR DT Aaron Donald had clearly stated that he was fine and would be playing in the game. Well, he was clearly not fine, he was ineffective and didn’t play most of the 2^nd half. A rib injury is tough because no matter how and which way you move and breathe, there is excruciating pain. I know this from personal experience, having broken two ribs. Hence, LAR did not have the pressure up front they needed to control Rodgers and make plays that would alter the GB OFF. With Rodgers having little or no pressure on him at times, he was able to pick apart the LAR DEF almost at will. Rodgers was 23/36, 296yds, 2TDs, 0INTS, 0 sacks, 0fumbles. The run game for GB was just as dangerous with 36 rushes for 188yds and 2tds. LAR was playing cathcup the whole game to no avail. In the other game, NO was up 20-13 when they basically collapsed and lost, 30-20. Most people say it was the TB DEF that was overwhelming vs the NO OFF. But, undisclosed until this week, was the fact that NO QB Drew Brees was playing with a torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder, broken ribs and a torn fascia in his foot. Besides this information, NO QB Taysom Hill was inactive due to an injury to his knee. Had the Brees injuries been made public, I would not have picked NO in this game. QB Jameis Winston would have played in this game and NO certainly would have been the DOG. In the game, Brees threw 3INTS and TE Jared Cook had a fumble which gave TB 21 points off the turnovers. TB didn’t have any turnovers and converted points against a NO DEF that spent way too much time on the field. Brees couldn’t throw the ball downfield like he used to due to the fact that he had a torn rotator cuff. I also know what that is like because I have had one too. That is why the NO OFF consisted of passes that were 10yds or less. The NO OFF was not as explosive as in games past. GB & TB met in wk 6 @TB and the game started out with GB leading 10-0 and looking like they would whitewash TB. Well, Rodgers then threw an inadvertent pass that was returned for a td and the game turned into a stampede by TB that had the final score at TB 38-10. Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro 16/35, 160 yds, 0tds and 2INTs. Both Rodgers & Brady have been here before and this is Brady’s 14^th conference championship game. This is the first home championship game for Rodgers. A lot of people are talking about the TB DEF but I am not sold on them because someone like Rodgers can see what is coming from film study. Also, last week TB had the advantage of having an injured Brees and no replacement. This game will be a fun one to watch but there is some revenge on the mind of Rodgers & CO who were embarrassed in wk 6 @TB. Rodgers is one of those that doesn’t forget too easily. Turnovers will loom large in the frosty cold of GB. Both of these QBs have played many games in the cold, so that will not be a factor. I like GB here to win by 4pts as Rodgers and CO will be heading to the SuperBowl. This will be a good game and will be decided late in the 4^th qtr. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: GB-3                                         5 STARS        

Sunday January 24^th, 2021 6:40pm

(2) Buffalo Bills @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs                         BUFF+3

LW, in the 3^rd qtr, BALT was driving deep in BUFF territory and down 10-3. Had BALT scored a td the game would probably have been 10-10. Also, BALT missed 2fgs. The game might have been BALT 16-10. But, BALT QB Lamar Jackson didn’t see BUFF CB Taron Johnson slip underneath and intercept the Jackson pass and return it 101yds the other way for a BUFF td. However, the BALT DEF did hold the BUFF OFF to one OFF td but the BALT OFF couldn’t do anything right and BALT ended up losing 17-3. That INT made the game BUFF 17-3 and you could turn your sets off there because the rest of the way BALT couldn’t get anything going scoring wise. Plus, Jackson later left the game with a concussion. BUFF has to be very careful going forward because in this game they had no running game to speak off and really not that much in combined OFF. BUFF had 32yds rushing and that has been a problem for most of the season. BUFF relies heavily on the arm of QB Josh Allen. LW, CLEVE was +10 @KC. CLEVE was coming off their nive win @PITT. I doubt they were going to be the recipient of 5 turnovers this week like they were @PITT. KC was off their bye. Since KC hasn’t covered a game since wk 8 and CLEVE was definitely up for this game, my pick was a definite CLEVE. CLEVE almost stole the game when Mahomes who was knocked out with a concussion were only down 22-17 with the ball and about 8:00 minutes to play. Unfortunately, CLEVE couldn’t do anything with the ball and ended up punting and not seeing the ball again. KC was able to get the first downs they needed with Chad Henne at QB and hold off CLEVE, 22-17. These two teams met in wk 6 on MNF @BUFF, KC winning 26-17. This was more of a toying around for KC because BUFF was paying catchup in this game but to no avail. As of right now, there is no definite because Mahomes is still in concussion protocol. This may come down to close to game time. For BUFF to win this game whether or not Mahomes plays, they need to get their run game going and the DEF needs to create some turnovers. BUFF can’t throw the ball 60x and expect to win. KC will eventually make adjustments and BUFF QB Josh Allen will make a costly mistake. Second, the BUFF DEF needs to make some plays that turn the momentum around no matter who is playing QB. They need to slow the KC machine down and keep the OFF off the field. But BUFF has had a nice season and can certainly build on it but KC will win accordingly if;  

We may not know when Mahomes gets clearance for this game and it may be very close or even on SUN. If that happens, this is why I am posting the following;

THE PICK: KC- 3(only if Mahomes starts)        

                    BUFF-3 (only if Mahomes is out)