2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 10
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 10 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 12th, 2020 8:20pm
Indianapolis Colts (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (6-2), (4-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS INDY+2
LW, INDY was @HOME vs BALT . I liked BALT in this game because of the bounceback after the loss to PITT. INDY was coming off their blowout win @DET which wasn’t much except for that it was a win. INDY has been playing well but they have lost two games that you have to scratch your head at, @JAGS & @CLEVE. INDY’s schedule is not that tough and they should end up somewhere in the playoffs. LW, there was an INT by INDY QB Philip Rivers that was initially called an incomplete pass. It was then looked at and reversed to an INT by BALT CB Marcus Peters which turned the momentum of the game. At the time, INDY was up 10-7 but with the INT, BALT was able to turn it into a td and BALT coasted the rest of the way for a 24-10 win. There was also a fumble return for td by BALT at the beginning of the game that didn’t help matters for INDY either. LW, TENN @HOME vs CHI stormed out to a 17-0 lead before CHI found the endzone for a fg in the 4th qtr. TENN added a td to increase the lead and CHI played catchup the whole way but TENN won 24-17. I thought CHI+5 ½ would be a good pick because of the closeness of most of the TENN wins this season. TENN DEF gives up a lot and a good QB can pick the secondary apart. TENN #27 PASS DEF. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill only connected with four receivers for 10 passes which is not that great but, two of those passes were for tds. L13 INDY @TENN, INDY 10-3 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. INDY 25-20-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. INDY 37-20 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 33-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS on TNF. INDY 6-3 ATS L9 on TNF. INDY 10-2 ATS AWAY on TNF. INDY 21-8-1 ATS as a DOG>1pt off SU loss. TENN 6-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. TENN 24-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 20-30 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. TENN 29-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TENN 8-2 ATS as a FAV on TNF. TENN 9-7 ATS L16 on TNF. INDY has weapons on OFF and will probably not turn the ball over as much as they did LW vs BALT. Plus, the DEF for INDY doesn’t give up much either. INDY #1 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #3 RUSH DEF. INDY DEF stopped BALT RBs for only 52yds. TENN RB Derrick Henry will get his yardage but INDY cannot let him take over the game. The INDY DEF has to put pressure on Tannehill so that he makes mistakes. When that happens, INDY has to take get the ball into the endzone. I liked INDY to bounceback in a close game.
THE PICK: INDY+2 5 STARS
Sunday November 15th, 2020 1:00pm
Houston Texans (2-6), (1-7) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (5-3), (3-4-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS HOU+3
LW, HOU was @JAGS and were BIG FAVS, -7. I made the mistake of taking HOU in this contest because of what happened in wk 5 @HOU. That game was HOU 30-14. But the wild card was JAGS Jake Luton who hadn’t played and I didn’t think he would do so well. Anyway, 2nd time around is usually a little tougher and when two terrible teams meet, take the terrible team with points. HOU has had a very tough schedule. They have lost @KC, BALT, @PITT, MINN, @TENN, & GB. They have beaten JAGS 2x. This team does have talent but interim HC Romeo Crenel is not the right coach. This team needs coaching desperately otherwise the talent on this team will be wasted. CLEV is coming off a bye. CLEVE 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they lost @HOME in a rain storm to LV, 16-6. It was a run game for both teams as neither team could get their passes completed in the bad weather. CLEVE’s record is deceiving as they have won vs CINNCY, WASH, @DAL, INDY, & @CINNCY. Those are their five wins. They have lost @BALT, @PITT & vs LV. Their only impressive win was vs INDY. They barely beat CINNCY 2x. CLEVE is one of those teams that are hard to predict because of QB Baker Mayfield. You really don’t know which guy is going to show up. L9 HOU vs CLEVE, HOU 7-2 SUATS. HOU 6-9-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. HOU 21-13-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 23-18-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 5-6-1 ATS after JAGS. HOU 4-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. HOU 2-7-1 ATS AWAY off SU div win. CLEVE 9-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB Hg’s. CLEVE 14-28-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 11-13-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 21-17-3 ATS as a HF vs non-div since 2003. This is a winnable game for HOU and I expect HOU QB Deshaun Watson to have a big game here. I expect Mayfield to make mistakes and there should be some turnovers that prove costly for CLEVE. Even though HOU is only getting 3pts in this game, they have a chance to get the win because of the uncertainty of CLEVE. The HOU DEF has to step up and they need to take advantage when they have the ball. HOU DEF has to put a stop on CLEVE RB Kareem Hunt and leave it all on Mayfield’s shoulders. Take the points here.
THE PICK: HOU+3 5 STARS
Washington Football Team (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS WASH+4
LW, DET was embarrassed @MINN, 34-20. Usually, no matter how bad DET is playing, they give MINN a game. This game had DET playing catchup from the 1st qtr, to no avail. DET QB Matthew Stafford even got knocked out of the game with a concussion and Chase Daniel came in and tried to salvage a comeback. Plus, DET gave up a combined 275 yds rushing to 2 MINN RBs. Where is the DEF for DET? DET was done from the opening bell. LW, WASH was also playing catchup vs NYG. NYG was leading 20-3 before WASH woke up and made a game of it. WASH QB Kyle Allen fractured his ankle and Alex Smith came in. Smith got the cobwebs out and almost got a comeback win but, 2INTS late in the game stopped WASH from taking the lead and the game. NYG had stopped playing OFF in the 2nd half which gave WASH a chance. However, Smith had 1td & 3INTS. But, with a full week of practice as the #1 QB, he should get his rhythm back with the receivers and have a better game this week. L8 WASH vs DET, 4-4 SUATS. WASH 27-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 37-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 8-13-1 ATS L22 after NYG. WASH 9-2 ATS off SU FAV loss. DET 33-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 25-23 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 16-25-1 ATS L42 (H) vs non-div. DET 3-11 ATS L14 after MINN. DET 11-2 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. DET 10-1 ATS L11 vs .333<opp. Both of these teams are coming off losses and both of these teams are going nowhere fast. DET HC Matt Patricia may be out of a job after this season and DET will then clean house. This is a game that no one really cares about except fans of both clubs. Usually these games are close highlighted by mistakes and turnovers. I like WASH here because Alex Smith still has something to prove and if Stafford is playing, he is only paying for a paycheck. Plus, WASH needs to get their running game going so that Smith doesn’t feel like the world is on his shoulders. DET #30 RUSH DEF. Also, WASH HC Ron Rivera has to show some improvement with this club or there may be some shakeup on his coaching staff. Take the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+4 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (1-7), (3-5) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ GB Packers (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS JAGS+13 ½
LW, on TNF GB was @SF and white washed a depleted SF team. Rodgers & GB have been awful vs a full SF squad in recent years and at least Rodgers go to have some fun before the next time he plays them. This game was GB 31-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. Final score was 34-17 because SF scored two dummy tds to make the score look respectable. The DEF for GB has to step up and make plays and create turnovers. GB has 6 takeaways with 3 giveaways for a +3. This team needs to do better and should look for some this weekend. By the way, GB RB Aaron Jones should go hog wild vs JAGS. JAGS #27 RUSH DEF. LW, JAGS gave HOU a scare. I initially liked JAGS with points and should have stuck with them because HOU is terrible. JAGS QB Jake Luto played better than Deshaun Watson and almost pulled out a game that almost went to OT. If Luton keeps it up QB Gardner Minshew may not be coming back. But we’ll see. The HOU-JAGS game was a seesaw battle that should have never been because HOU on paper has way more talent but, that’s on paper. JAGS RB James Robinson is making a name for himself with 580 yds rushing so far. He takes a lot of pressure off of whoever is the QB. But JAGS haven’t won and he has gotten a lot of yds against 2 teams that are terrible and another that gives up a lot but still finds a way to win, TENN. We’ll see how the JAGS DEF holds up vs Rodgers. L4 GB vs JAGS, JAGS 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS. GB 35-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 28-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 16-17 ATS L33 vs AFC. GB 6-2 ATS L8 after TNF. GB 13-5 ATS w/rest. JAGS 23-23-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 34-27-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 8-8 ATS as a DOG >10pts. JAGS 4-29 SU & 7-26 ATS L33 vs NFC. JAGS 7-6 ATS L13 after HOU. JAGS 1-13 ATS as a non-conf DG >3pts. JAGS 1-7 ATS when <.500 in gms 9-12 off HM gm vs non-div opp. Here is why GB should blow out the JAGS. GB OC Nathaniel Hackett was on JAGS HC Doug Marrone’s staff and was unceremoniously fired in the middle of the 2018 season. He knows Marrone’s tendencies very well and should see exactly what is coming. The DEF for GB has to step it up with no letups for garbage time and dummy tds in the end. JAGS have been terrible and are starting Jake Luton who didn’t do too badly last week vs HOU but GB is a better coached team with better players and trying to go somewhere. Lay the points here as GB should win 38-3.
THE PICK: GB-13 ½ 5 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1), (3-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ NY Giants (2-7), (6-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS
LW, NYG barely got by WASH, 23-20. It should not have been that close because NYG was up 20-3 and basically did a lay down in the 2nd half as WASH came storming back. NYG DEF knocked WASH QB Kyle Allen out of the game and Alex Smith came in. Smith had 3INTS but none of them were turned into points by NYG. WASH almost could have won this game and NYG HC Joe Judge would have been vilified. He should know that yu can’t let the other team stick around. Anyway, WR Golden Tate did not play in this game, so look for him to have a big game this Sunday. PHILLY is coming off a bye. PHILLY 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, PHILLY beat DAL 23-9 even though PHILLY QB Carson Wentz had 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles. If DAL wasn’t so inept, they could have won that game after they were given gifts but, they managed only 3pts after 4 turnovers. That is pathetic. PHILLY has a lot of injured players but, they still have talent that should be winning games. L13 NYG(H) vs PHILLY, NYG 3-10 SU & 4-9 ATS. L27 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 17-9-1 ATS. L27 NYG vs PHILLY, ROAD 17-9-1 ATS. NYG 19-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 21-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 21=27 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 9-4 ATS L13 after WASH. NYG 10-20 ATS as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 9-17 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 5-9 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. PHILLY 32-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 41-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 33-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 9-3 ATS w/rest vs .600<opp. PHILLY 0-5 ATS as a FAV >3pts in 1st of BB RG’s. These teams met in wk 7 @PHILLY on TNF and NYG had a nice lead of 21-10 until NYG went to sleep and lost 22-21. Teams don’t forget and HC Joe Judge should be reminding them of that collapse. NYG are going into their bye. NYG 5-7-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. This should be motivation for NYG and the fact that they are getting points. Plus, NYG QB Daniel Jones has to make good choices and not turn over the ball. I don’t see either team blowing out the game. It may come down to the wire and both teams do not like each other. NYG need a feel good game and this should be that game. Take the points & NYG and enjoy the game.
THE PICK: NYG+3 ½ 3 STARS
TB Buccaneers (6-3), (4-4-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-6), (5-4) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS CAR+4 ½
LW, CAR @KC, CAR went toe to toe with KC. KC took the lead in the 3rd qtr but CAR didn’t fold. Had CAR gotten a little closer for a last second fg, CAR may have pulled out the upset. I liked CAR +10 ½ in this game because everyone was and is downplaying CAR. CAR RB Christian McCaffrey had a very productive 1st game back from injury and should be ready to go this week. CAR DEF held KC to 30 yds rushing. CAR WR Robby Anderson is having a very productive season after not being re-signed by NYJ. This guy brings great enthusiasm in every game. CAR has weapons and up and comers and they have been a competitive football even though they are on a 4game losing streak. No one expected them to be gang busters this season but they are fighting in every game. LW on SNF, TB @HOME was wiped up and out by NO, 38-3. It was 31-0 at halftime, so turn your sets off there. TB QB Tom Brady had 3INTS. Two of Brady’s INTs turned into 14 pts for NO. The NO DEF also had their way with TB, sacking Brady 3x. TB rushed for a total of 8yds. It was big loss that TB needs to bouncback from. But some of Brady’s passes were under thrown and we’ll see if there is a correction or there is a decline, we’ll see. L13 CAR(H) vs TB, CAR 8-5 SU & 6-7 ATS. L27 CAR vs TB, FAV 15-12 ATS. CAR 8-11-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. L16 CAR vs TB, ROAD 11-5 ATS. CAR 10-5-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. CAR 34-24 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 24-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 21-19 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 8-5 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 7-5 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. TB 5-6 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. TB 24-23 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 38-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 21-31 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. TB 6-8 ATS after NO. TB 3-5-1 ATS L9 off SU FAV loss. CAR is a team that does not go away. These two teams met in wk 2 @TB, with TB winning 31-17. Don’t think for a minute that CAR has forgotten that game or that they need to come out strong for this game. TB may be taking CAR for granted. Divisional games are usually tougher the second game and CAR has weapons on both sides of the ball. TB#1 RUSH DEF vs CAR RB McCaffrey. This game will go down to the wire. Also, CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater has seen the TB DEF, he should be ready this time. He is a smart guy and can lead this team and take what the DEF gives him. Teddy didn’t have a particularly good game vs TB in wk 2 with 0tds & 2INTS& 1 lost fumble. I’m sure that he wants to improve on those numbers. I certainly expect Brady & CO to bounceback but, this game will be a squeaker and don’t be surprised if CAR gets the upset. Take the points here.
THE PICK: CAR+4 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 15th, 2020 4:00pm
Denver Broncos (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LV Raiders (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS DEN+5
LW, DEN was down @ATL, 20-3 @halftime and had to play catchup. They had a good running game going but needed to score points in a hurry just to make it interesting. The DEF for DEN was the culprit here as DEN QB Drew Lock threw 25/48 313 yds 2tds & 1INT but the DEN running still managed to rush for over 100 yds. The INT in the 4th qtr by Lock is what was able to put ATL out of reach for DEN. LW, LV escaped with a close one. LAC’s QB Justin Hebert’s pass in the endzone on the last play of the game was dropped and LV was able to walk away with a 31-26 win. Had the pass been caught, LV would have lost. LV got very lucky because the pass by Hebert was right on the money. When LV QB Derek Carr has to throw a lot of passes because he knows that the running game is not working, that is when he turns the ball over. Some weeks you just don’t know which LV team will show up. L13 DEN @LV, DEN 7-6 SUATS. L17 DEN vs LV, DEN 12-5 SU & 10-7 ATS. L26 DEN vs LV, ROAD 15-11 ATS. DEN 11-9 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DEN 22-17 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. DEN 24-20 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 33-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 14-10 ATS L24 div RGs. DEN 7-2 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 13-3 ATS in gms 9-12 as a ROAD DOG vs .500>opp. LV 5-8 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. LV 22-34-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 32-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 19-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LV 7-3 ATS L10 after LAC. LV 3-8 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win. LV 7-12 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. I think this will be a tight game because DEN is on a bounceback and they have a solid 1-2 punch in the running game. DEN needs to get it going so that Lock can pick his spots. LV is in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending against the run and DEN should take it to them at a constant pace. This game has the makings of a shootout. I like LV to win the game but by a closer margin than the spread suggests. The DEN DEF has to stop RB Josh Jacobs from running away with this game for LV. Also, LV RB Dovantae Booker may be a little motivated to take it to his former team. Unless either team gets turnoveridous, I don’t see a blowout by either team. Take the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+5 3 STARS
LA Chargers (2-6), (3-3-2) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-1-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (5-3), (6-2) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (3-1) ATS LAC+2 ½
LW, LAC was hosting LV and for the 2nd week in a row, LAC lost on the last play of the game. A pass in the endzone by LAC QB Justin Hebert that was originally called a td and would have beaten LV was reversed when it was reviewed on replay. The ball was dropped and LAC lost 31-26. Needless to say, it is the LAC DEF that is losing games for this team. They cannot make stops when they need them. But LAC should make some changes on DEF in the off season to make sure that they take that next step forward and insure that QB Justin Hebert gets the support he needs. Hebert has 17tds, 5INTS & 3fumbles, so it’s not him. LW, MIA went to ARZ and took care of business. This was a back and forth affair between two young QBs and MIA Tua Tagovailoa came out the victor. ARZ had a 31-24 lead going into the 4th qtr but MIA fought back and took the lead late. ARZ missed a fg late that would have tied the game but it was short. Tua is learning this game and taking what the DEF gives him, so far. I knew it would be a shootout and it was. L10 MIA vs LAC, MIA 6-4 SUATS. MIA 33-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 28-27 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 34-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 36-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 5-10-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 12-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses vs opp off SU DOG win. MIA has been playing very excited in the two games that Tua has started. They have beaten two teams that are >.500 and in a convincing manner. LAC DEF is overrated and will be addressed in the off-season. Hebert is playing like a seasoned pro but MIA has a rejuvenation under TUA. This will be a fun game to watch and will probably going down to the wire. I like that MIA is a FAV by less than 3pts. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-2 ½ 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (7-2), (3-5-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS BUFF+1 ½
LW, ARZ @HOME was in a shootout with MIA. ARZ was leading in the 4th qtr 31-24 but could not score any further. MIA drove 2x for a td and a fg to take the lead 34-31. ARZ tried a fg late that was short and that was the game. This was exciting to see two young QBs go at it who both had pretty good games. I liked MIA with the points because not only did I think they would cover but, I thought they had a good shot at winning outright, which they did. I also said that it would be a shootout which it was. MIA is not to be taken lightly and maybe ARZ did. This week they won’t take BUFF lightly. LW, BUFF was @HOME vs SEA. This was a wild one as SEA QB Russell Wilson had 2 INTs & 2 lost fumbles which turned into 16pts for BUFF and had SEA playing catchup the whole game. BUFF stormed out to a 17-0 lead before SEA knew what was what. There was no run game for either team in this one as SEA produced 57 rushing yards while BUFF produced 34 rushing yards. Both teams put the ball in the air a combined 79x. But BUFF came out ahead as they were playing one of the worst DEFs in the NFL. However, BUFF still managed to give up 7 sacks. Take away the turnovers by SEA’s Wilson and the game may have turned out differently. This week BUFF will not be so lucky. ARZ 7-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. ARZ 26-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 14-17 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ARZ 17-3-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 7-0 ATS as a FAV off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 16-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 10-1 ATS @HOME off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ 11-0 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME off non-div vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 12-2 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SUATS win. BUFF 6-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. BUFF 29-32-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BUFF 24-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 11-2-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 6-8 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. BUFF 10-13-1 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 2-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 3-9-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 11-2-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ is coming off a loss and their running game is better than BUFF’s DEF against it. ARZ #2 RUSH OFF vs BUFF #21 RUSH DEF. The DEF for ARZ has to play smart. BUFF doesn’t have a rushing game except for their QB, Josh Allen and that is a recipe for disaster. I expect ARZ to come out strong and take care of business but, this game has a shot at being another shootout for ARZ. However, this week, they will win and cover the game. Lay the points because ARZ will come out ahead in another exciting game.
THE PICK: ARZ-1 ½ 5 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (6-2), (5-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ LA Rams (5-3), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS SEA+1 ½
LW, SEA got their bell rung. Eventually a bad DEF is going to show up and it did @BUFF. SEA #32 TOT DEF. To top it off SEA QB Russell Wilson had 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles. The turnovers by Wilson led to 16 points by BUFF. BUFF was leading 24-7 and SEA had their work cut out for them. However, SEA never got closer than 7pts and then BUFF pulled ahead to stay. The final score was BUFF 44-34. BUFF had no run game with 34 yards rushing but managed a game through the air. SEA did sack BUFF QB Josh Allen 7x but gave up 415 yards of passing and 3tds. The DEF for SEA has to get better or they will not go deep in the playoffs. LW, LAR were on a bye. LAR 10-2-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before that, they were manhandled @MIA 28-17. LAR QB Jared Goff had 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles that led to 21 pts by MIA. This game was MIA 28-10 at half but LAR could only get 7pts in the 2nd half as the MIA DEF did its job. Goff basically set the tone in the 1st half by succumbing to pressure by MIA with lost fumbles. LAR had a ground game going with 131 yds rushing but when you trying a comeback it is mostly passing. Goff passed 61x but could not connect when LAR needed it most. A lot of times LAR have been hard to predict and you don’t know which team is going to show up. So far this season, there has been no consistency in their play. When you think they should win, they lose. L13 SEA @LAR, SEA 6-7 SUATS. L22 SEA vs LAR, HOME 14-8 ATS. L26 LAR vs SEA, SEA 16-10 SU & 15-11 ATS. SEA 6-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. SEA 26-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 25-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 35-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 5-8 ATS before ARZ. SEA 9-2 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm vs conf opp. SEA 31-9 ATS in gms 9-12 since 2009. LAR 22-39-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 21-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 19-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. LAR 1-8 ATS before MNF. LAR 5-21 ATS vs NFC WEST OPP off SU FAV loss. LAR 5-23 ATS in gms 9-12 @HOME vs opp off SU loss. Russell Wilson has been a player that bounces back well after a bad game. After his giveaway performance @BUFF, I feel he certainly will have a better game this week @LAR. The DEF will certainly play better with S Jamal Adams & DE Carlos Dunlap wrecking havoc on DEF. LAR QB Jared Goff gets rattled easily and if SEA puts pressure on him, he will make mistakes. That should be the game plan. Wilson is smart and he can find receivers when there are none. These two teams know each other and their styles so it should be one of those games that goes down to the wire. But, I’m looking at a SEA bounceback here.
THE PICK: SEA+1 ½ 5 STARS
SF 49ers (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NO Saints (6-2), (3-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (1-3) ATS SF+9 ½
On TNF, SF was @HOME vs GB. SF had a depleted team due to injuries and COVID. GB white washed SF 34-17. It was 31-3 at halftime and SF scored 2 dummy tds in the last 5:00 for the score to look sort of respectable. Don’t look at the stats for SF because it was all in catchup and garbage time. On top of that, SF QB Nick Mullins had 1INT & 1 lost fumble that were turned into 10GB pts. But, on the other side, GB QB Aaron Rodgers did have his way with SF, throwing for 305yds, 4tds, 0INTs & 0 fumbles. Had SF had a full squad, SF probably would have won because they seem to have some kind of dominance over Rodgers & GB. Here SF is going on their bye so they will have time to recover and possibly regroup. SF 7-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. LW on SNF, NO took full advantage of TB in a blowout 38-3. It was 31-0 and you could have turned your sets off there. Take into effect that TB QB Tom Brady had 3INTS of which two TB turned into 14pts, I’d say that it was a very good night for NO and a very bad night for TB. NO showed their best and TB was at their worst. NO QB Drew Brees went 26/32 222 yds, 4tds, 0INTS but did have a lost fumble that did not turn into any TB points. NO held TB to 8 yds rushing. L10 SF vs NO, SF 3-7 SU but 5-4-1 ATS. L7 SF vs NO (incl playoffs), SF 5-1-1 ATS. SF 28-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 22-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SF 8-10 ATS AWAY L18 after allowing 28>pts. SF 3-13 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 14-5 ATS L19 as a non-div ROAD DOG 3>pts off non-div gm. SF 4-13 ATS w/rest. SF 8-15-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 4-7 ATS L11 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 2-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. NO 6-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NO 35-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 29-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 35-33-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 9-5 ATS after TB. NO 1-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU win vs opp off BB SU losses. NO 7-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 4-6 ATS off SU DOG vs div opp. NO 7-8 ATS vs NFC WEST. NO 6-23 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 12-0 ATS L12 off SU DOG win. NO 9-2 ATS in gms 9-12 of div vs opp off DD SU loss. I like SF here with the points. The reason why is that NO has trouble with SF and in the dome NO gets too comfortable. Not only that, the NO DEF gets tired easily in the 4th qtr and gives up points when they are ahead. Look at the CHI gm, LAC gm, CAR gm. There is another reason. After a team gets blownout, they have a tendency to play better the next week, tougher you might say. A+ bounceback mode. On the other side, a team after a big blowout win tends to play less focused and doesn’t correct anything after going forward, thinking we did everything right. Hence, they don’t cover the following week. Take these two factors into consideration and you have a SF cover and maybe even an upset. Also, all the no-names that are on SF, they are vying for jobs. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL and this is a chance for some guys to make it and show their skills. If SF was healthy they would not even be on the roster. They are hungry and playing hungry because they don’t know anything else. Plus, they have had a few weeks to gel. Take the points here and don’t be surprised if SF wins outright.
THE PICK: SF+9 ½ 5 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1), (5-1-2) ATS, (0-3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0), (6-2) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS CINNCY+7 ½
LW, PITT had a big scare in DAL. PITT was a BIG ROAD FAV, -13 ½ but DAL was playing like it was the SuperBowl. PITT wasn’t taking DAL seriously and before you knew it, DAL was up 13-0. In the 2nd half, DAL was up 19-9 but PITT scored 2tds & a fg on three straight possessions to win 24-19. PITT was not playing like they have been and didn’t take DAL seriously. DAL played tough and gave PITT a scare. The running game for PITT was nil at 46yds and Big Ben was even knocked out of the game for a while. The DEF for PITT was the culprit as they were not putting the pressure on DAL early as they have on other teams. Meanwhile, DAL took advantage of this and made a game out of it. PITT needed a comeback and catchup to win this game. CINNCY is coming off a bye. CINNCY 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, CINNCY manhandled TENN 31-20. TENN was looking to bounceback after their loss vs PITT and instead TENN ran into a hungry CINNCY team. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has been playing well but needs to get help from other areas. If he keeps spreading the ball around as he has, he will keep DEFs guessing especially PITT. The CINNCY DEF has gotten better as well. Six different players have at least 1INT for a total of eight. But PITT has OFF weapons and CINNCY can’t get caught sleeping. L13 CINNCY @PITT, CINNCY 3-10 SU & 4-9 ATS. L26 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 17-8-1 ATS. L19 CINNCY vs PITT, FAV 10-8-1 ATS. L18 CINNCY vs PITT, HOME FAV 9-8-1 ATS. L19 CINNCY vs PITT, PITT 12-6-1 ATS. CINNCY 7-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CINNCY 26-29 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 33-19-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 44-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 1-13 ATS vs >.600opp. CINNCY 2-8 ATS AWAY vs >.600opp. CINNCY 5-3-1 ATS as a DOG in 1st of BB RG’s. CINNCY 0-4 ATS AWAY vs >.600 div opp. PITT 32-23 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 30-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 38-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. Right now PITT has a bullseye on their backs because they are the last team that is undefeated. Every team will play with intensity because then they can say that they beat an undefeated team. CINNCY is getting better by the week and they are playing smarter. Burrow knows what he has around him and he is not forcing things. I like the spread here as CINNCY plays with intensity and the spread is just too much to ignore. It would help if RB Joe Mixon is healthy for this game. If not RB Giovani Bernard is well aware of what it is like to play against PITT and needs to have a good game. The only way PITT blows out CINNCY is if the CINNCY DEF does a total laydown or CINNCY commits too many turnovers that are turned into easy points by PITT. Other than those two points, I like CINNCY here getting more than a td.
THE PICK: CINNCY+7 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday November 15th, 2020 8:20pm
Baltimore Ravens (6-2), (5-3) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS NE+7
On MNF, NE was very lucky late @NYJ. Had it not been for a stupid pass by NYJ QB Joe Flacco, NE would have certainly lost the game. The NYJ came to play for 3qtrs until it came to the 4th qtr and they gave the game up to NE. NE didn’t step their game up, they just took advantage of mistakes and a non-aggressive approach by the NYJ. NE was trailing 27-17 going into the 4th qtr and NYJ had 2possesions in the 4th qtr where Flacco threw an INT on the 1st play and then NYJ went 3 and out. NE QB Cam Newton’s mechanics are not that good and he was lucky to get the win. NE RB Damien Harris who was having a nice game was knocked out of the game with a chest injury and is questionable for this game. Plus, the NE DEF is not as good without CB Stephon Gilmore who has been out with a knee injury the last two games and is still questionable for this game. LW, BALT @INDY was the recipient of a questionable call on an INT by BALT CB Marcus Peters who is known as all or nothing. This was the turning point as BALT turned it into a td and a 14-10 lead that they never relinquished on their way to a 24-10 win. But, I’m also surprised that BALT did not sack INDY Philip Rivers 1x. BALT 17-12-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV. BALT 3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2020. L8 BALT vs NE, NE 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS. However, L6 BALT vs NE(incl playoffs), BALT 5-0-1 ATS. BALT 7-6 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. BALT 39-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 33-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 8-6 ATS AWAY on SNF. BALT 6-7 ATS as a FAV on SNF. NE 4-0 ATS as a HOME DOG. NE 26-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 27-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 2-6 ATS after MNF. NE 11-11-1 ATS @HOME on SNF. NE 12-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NE 7-2-2 ATS L11 vs AFC NORTH. NE 16-1 ATS off DIV RD gm vs non-div opp. NE 11-1 ATS @HOME off div RG vs non-div opp. NE 7-1 ATS L8 after NYJ. NE hasn’t put two wins together in a row yet and I don’t see them beating BALT here. NE relies on their run game more so now, then with Brady as the QB. NE #4 RUSH OFF vs BALT #8 RUSH DEF. BALT was a little bit rusty LW but did get some of the cobwebs out. They need to put pressure on Newton as he will run if given the chance. The BALT DEF is very good and should not let Newton have a good game. BALT needs to shut down the NE run game and then take advantage of possessions on OFF. BALT has owned NE with QB Lamar Jackson at the helm and I see this continuing. Lay the points here as BALT should roll.
THE PICK: BALT-7 5 STARS
Monday November 16th, 2020 8:15pm
Minnesota Vikings (3-5), (5-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (5-4), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS CHI+2 ½
LW, MINN @HOME beat up on DET. The game wasn’t even close as DET was playing catchup all day and MINN RB Dalvin Cook rushed for 206 yards & 2tds on 22 carries. To top it off, MINN RB Alexander Mattison added 69 yards on 12 carries for a total of 275 yards rushing. MINN QB Kirk Cousins only passed the ball 20x and completed 13 passes but, threw 3tds, 0INTS & 0 fumbles in leading DET to a 34-20 win. I thought DET would keep it close as they have played well in the past @MINN. But the DET DEF could not stop Cook and Stafford didn’t help the DET cause by throwing 2INTS. LW, CHI was also playing catchup in their game @TENN. TENN was up 17-0 before CHI found the endzone for a fg in the 4th qtr. TENN added a td and CHI eventually lost with too little too late, 24-17. I honestly didn’t think CHI would win but TENN’s margin of victories this season led me to believe that the score would be closer than the -5 ½ that TENN was laying. CHI has lost 3 straight after starting 5-1 and it doesn’t look like they are a team that is all on the same page. L13 MINN @CHI, MINN3-10 SU & 3-9 ATS 1NL. L26 MINN vs CHI, HOME 16-9 ATS 1NL. MINN 23-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. MINN 29-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 32-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 11-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 0-8 ATS L8 AWAY on MNF. MINN 0-6 ATS as a RF on MNF. MINN 8-0 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. CHI 41-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 30-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 25-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 8-0 ATS @HOME off BB SU losses when hosting MINN. CHI 3-9 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 1-9 ATS @HOME on MNF vs <.500 opp. CHI 11-2 ATS <.500 in n gms 9-12 when @HOME vs opp off SU win. CHI has been awful and is currently on a 3game losing streak. Their RUN OFF is next to nothing and the TOT OFF is being put squarely on the shoulders of QB Nick Foles. CHI RB David Montgomery who is the prime RB for CHI suffered a concussion vs TENN and his status is up in the air for this game. If he is not good for this game, CHI will certainly be at a bigger disadvantage than if he is in there. CHI #32 RUSH OFF. CHI has a bye coming up and they could probably use the time for rest and regroup. CHI 7-5-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. MINN is trying to get back to relevance after staring the season 1-5. They ca do it because their schedule is not that tough. Even though Cousins has a terrible record in PRIMETIME he will have RB Cook to share the load. I like MINN to roll all over CHI and the MINN DEF should create a turnover or two. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MINN-2 ½ 5 STARS