2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 11
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 19th, 2020 8:20pm
Arizona Cardinals (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Settle Seahawks (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS ARZ+3
By now, if you haven’t seen the “Hail-Murray” that happened in the BUFF-ARZ game LW, then, you aren’t a football fan. ARZ escaped a HOME loss because their DEF didn’t do their job. This was a shootout and it came down to the wire. ARZ WR DeAndre Hopkins leaped and caught the pass in the endzone between three BUFF defenders. This was with :02 left in the game It gave ARZ a 32-30 win and a cover of the -1 ½ . ARZ did rush for over 200 yards and the BUFF DEF couldn’t stop it. But the ARZ DEF gave up a lot in the air as well. ARZ did come back from 23-9 to take this game so give them credit for never giving up. A fumble by ARZ RB Kenyon Drake early in the 3rd qtr turned into a td by BUFF which made the score BUFF 23-9. From there on, ARZ had their work cut out for them. LW, SEA @LAR, SEA laid another egg in a loss 23-16. SEA QB Russell Wilson had 2INTS & 1 lost fumble which fortunately didn’t turn into any LAR pints but were certainly missed opportunities. Last two games for Wilson 4INTS & 3 lost fumbles, not good. SEA RB Chris Carson is probable for this game which takes some load off of Wilson. RB Carlos Hyde who has also missed game this season is probable for this game. RB Alex Collins who was recently acquired and saw action in the LAR game will also be beneficial to the SEA cause. Any RB that can carry the load for SEA takes great pressure off of Wilson so that he can manage the game better. L13 SEA(H) vs ARZ, ARZ 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS. HC Carroll (H) vs ARZ, 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS. L15 ARZ vs SEA, ROAD 12-2-1 ATS. SEA 26-21 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 32-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 33-39 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 10-0 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SU losses. SEA 9-1 ATS on TNF. SEA 9-2-1 ATS before MNF. SEA 11-4-1 ATS after losing AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 16-9 ATS @HOME on TNF. SEA 11-10 ATS vs NFC WEST on TNF. SEA 31-10 ATS in gms 9-12 since 2009. SEA 1-5 ATS L6 as a div HF <10pts. ARZ 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. ARZ 29-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 41-45 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 25-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 3-9 ATS on TNF. ARZ 1-7 ATS on TNF vs .500>opp. ARZ 2-17 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> vs opp off SUATS loss. These two teams met in wk 7 on SNF and SEA squandered a 10 point lead in the 4th qtr and lost in OT 37-34. Wilson had 3INTs in that game which contributed to the loss. ARZ has not swept the season series in a long time and SEA is on a double bounceback here. Yes, the DEF for SEA is terrible SEA #32 TOT DEF. But, SEA cannot afford to lose another game like this. They are in desperation. The NFC WEST is tough. SEA has a good record in PRIMETIME and I expect them to play smarter and win this game by at least a td. The DEF for SEA has to make plays and keep Kyler Murray in the pocket. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SEA-3 5 STARS
Sunday November 22nd, 2020 1:00pm
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1), (3-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (6-3), (3-4-2) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS PHILLY+3 ½
LW, CLEVE was beating HOU 10-7 when CLEVE RB Nick Chubb had a break away run that had no one near him. He could have easily scored a td but instead went out of bounds at the 1yard line. CLEVE took a knee for a few plays instead of scoring. If he had scored CLEVE would have covered the -3 they were laying vs HOU with a 16-7 or 17-7 win. But it ended up being a push. I liked HOU in the game because I felt that HOU was more talented on paper but, that doesn’t mean squat. Sometimes you get lucky. But Chubb went out of bounds so that HOU would not get the ball back, period. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield doesn’t have a lot of guys to throw to on CLEVE so, having a good run game helps the team and him overall. LW, PHILLY was @NYG. I loved NYG in this game and PHILLY was playing catchup the whole game. NYG were paying payback for the loss they incurred earlier in the season @PHILLY in the last few minutes after leading 21-10. In this game, PHILLY looked like they might make a run in the 2nd half with two straight tds but that was the end of their scoring. NYG added 2fgs to expand their lead and win by 10pts. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz didn’t have any turnovers but he wasn’t exactly lights out either. PHILLY RB Boston Scott who could impersonate Darren Sproles rushed 3x for 63 yards & 1td, should have touched the ball more. Why PHILLY didn’t use him more in that capacity is a question that should be answered. Anyway, this season has not been good for PHILLY as injuries and inconsistencies have had PHILLY end up with a losing record. CLEVE 4-14 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CLEVE 14-28-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 11-13-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 21-17-4 ATS as a HF vs non-div since 2003. 8-17-1 ATS L26 vs NFC. CLEVE 2-7 ATS as a non conf HF 3>pts. CLEVE 1-13-1 ATS after scoring 10 or less pts. CLEVE 0-8 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp. PHILLY 8-6 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. PHILLY 33-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 24-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PHILLY 19-9 ATS L28 vs AFC. PHILLY 12-5 ATS vs.400> non-conf opp. CLEVE has a nice 1-2 RB punch in Kareem Hunt & Nick Chubb. CLEVE #4 RUSH OFF vs PHILLY #26 RUSH DEF. CLEVE should use their run game to run all over PHILLY and take pressure off Mayfield. I don’t think the PHILLY DEF can stop the CLEVE running game. They couldn’t stop NYG running game so it doesn’t look like they will stop CLEVE’s. PHILLY has fallen a lot since they won the SuperBowl and need a lot of personnel to fix the ship. This is a game that CLEVE should pick their spots and mix it up so that PHILLY is off balance. Wentz is not better than HOU QB Deshaun Watson and CLEVE DEF should take Wentz off his game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CLEVE-3 ½ 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NO Saints (7-2), (4-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS ATL+5
LW, NO QB Drew Brees got a taste of what it was like to be a QB in the 1970s & 1980s. He was sacked hard and suffered broken ribs and a collapsed lung. He is definitely out for this game. I don’t wish ill will on him at all. I am just stating that QBs were fair game back in the 1970s & 1980s. Just ask Terry Bradshaw. As of this writing NO HC Sean Payton hasn’t said who his starter is going to be. Honestly, it doesn’t matter and based on experience at the position we can assume who it will be. QB Taysom Hill has never started and played a full game as QB for NO so that would be a disaster. Jameis Winston is the only logical choice. However, his record vs ATL is 4-5 SU with 25tds & 9INTS. NO got away with one last week because SF made so many mistakes and two fturnovers on punt returns which gave the game to NO. The INT in the endzone preserved the ATS win when it shouldn’t have, but SF QB Nick Mullins plays nervously and not loose and tries to make something out of nothing which usually turns into a disaster. ATL is coming off a bye. ATL 9-4 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before their bye, they beat DEN 34-27. ATL has won three out of their last four games and interim HC Raheem Morris has the team playing competitively. Don’t get me wrong, ATL is still a mess and needs to make a lot of changes in the off-season but for now they are playing against what their competition brings. L13 ATL @NO, ATL 5-8 SU & 6-7 ATS. L18 ATL vs NO, HOME 10-8 ATS. L14 N vs ATL, DOG 10-4 ATS. ATL 34-23-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 30-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 29-21 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 8-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NO 30-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 36-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 32-17 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 8-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. ATL has had two weeks to prepare for this game. NO is not the same team as in 2019 and their DEF is weaker. ATL is loose because no one expects them at this time in the season to do anything. NO has pressure because they are expected to get to the SuperBowl. Jameis Winston is no Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy led the team in 2019 while Brees was out injured to a 5-0 record. Teddy had incentive to show everyone that he was fully recovered from his injuries and that he could be effective as a starting QB. Winston needs to show that he makes good judgements. ATL knows his tendencies and will counter him. Take the points here as ATL has a shot at an upset but will keep the game within striking distance.
THE PICK: ATL+5 3 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1), (5-2-2) ATS, (0-4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Washington Football Team (2-7), (4-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CINNCY+1 ½
LW, CINNCY @PITT, CINNCY took it on the chin. I thought CINNCY would keep it closer than the 7 ½ that CINNCY was getting. I thought wrong as PITT whitewashed CINNCY 36-10. This game was close for about 5 minutes in the 2nd qtr when PITT was ahead 12-7. Then PITT scored 24 pts unanswered and it was 36-7 by the 4th qtr. CINNCY did have 2fumbles that turned into 3pts but that’s not what beat CINNCY. What beat CINNCY is the onslaught of passes by Big Ben and how CINNCY couldn’t stop them. LW, WASH made a valiant comeback effort to beat DET and scored 24 points in the 2nd half but, they let DET drive down the field in the last minute to kick a fg and win the game 30-27. It didn’t help that DE Chase Young committed a stupid personal foul that gave DET a closer fg attempt. However, I did fell strongly that WASH would keep it close with the +4 and I was right. WASH QB Alex Smith showed very good progress with 0turnovers. I knew he would bounce back after the game he had vs the NYG the week before. That’s what I was counting on. But WASH has other problems that they need to address in the off-season. CINNCY 10-4-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CINNCY 33-20-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 44-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 17-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 7-7 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 8-2 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 19-6 ATS as a DOG vs NFC EAST. CINNCY 11-2 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 & AWAY vs <.500opp. CINNCY 5-0 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs >.500opp. WASH 14-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 25-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 6-4 ATS as a non-conf FAV. WASH 9-1 ATS before TNF. WASH 13-4 ATS before DAL. WASH 3-9 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opp. WASH 7-10 ATS off BB SU losses. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow looks like the real thing and after getting crushed by PITT LW, CINNCY will bounce back in some form. CINNCY beat TENN this season while WASH has only beaten PHILLY & DAL, both bad teams. Burrow needs guys around him on OFF & DEF and CINNCY will be competing in the AFC NORTH. This game is a battle of two teams going nowhere this season but Burrow is a better QB than Smith. Also, CINNCY has better RBs than WASH and I’m counting on CINNCY running the ball a lot. Burrow has shown that he can thread the needle but with WASH he might not have to. I actually believe that CINNCY will win this game outright. Take CINNCY & the points.
THE PICK: CINNCY+1 ½ 3 STARS
Detroit Lions (4-5), (3-6) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-7), (5-5) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS DET+1 ½
LW, CAR took it on the chin @HOME vs TB, 46-23. But in the game CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater left with an MCL sprain. He is doubtful for this game which leaves PJ Walker who came in for Bridgewater to start this game. He will have his work cut out for him. CAR DEF gave up 210 yards rushing including a 98yard run by TB RB Ronald Jones for a td. Brady also had his way with this DEF as he went 28/39 341 yards, 3tds 0INTS & 0fumbles. This game was 17-17 at the half but TB scored on all six possessions they had the ball in the 2nd half. CAR DEF didn’t make one stop. Also out for CAR is RB Christian McCaffrey. LW, DET was up 24-3 @HOME vs WASH but decided that they had played enough. WASH then scored 3tds to tie the score 24-24 before DET kicked a fg, then WASH kicked a fg to make the score 27-27. But with :16 left DET was able to drive down the field with a little help from a personal foul penalty against WASH DE Chase Young which gave DET a fg shot with :00 on the clock. DET made it and DET won 30-27. I liked WASH+4 because I knew it would be close. DET has been beating bad teams and CAR is a bad team. DET needs to get their running game going here because neither team is good vs the run. L6 DET vs CAR, DET 2-4 SU & 3-2-1 ATS. DET 18-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 25-49 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 4-1 ATS L5 before Thurs game. DET 6-1 ATS AWAY vs .333<opp. CAR 6-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CAR 34-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 27-20 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CAR 20-23-2 L45 as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 13-7 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 3-12 ATS off BB SU losses vs .666>opps. CAR 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 off DD SU loss vs<.500 non-div opp. CAR 1-9 ATS as a HF >1pt vs <.500opp. I don’t like the way this game looks for CAR. You have an inexperienced backup for CAR without McCaffrey and a DET team that will probably tee-up if they get the shot. The only way DET loses this game is if they get turnoveridous and get stupid all over the place. DET could use this game to finally get back to .500 and become a team that has some sort of relevance in the month of December. No one expected much from CAR and it is finally coming around. Hats off to CAR for playing competitively for this long in the season. Take DET and the points right now as Stafford & CO should get it going in this one.
THE PICK: DET+1 ½ 5 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0), (7-2) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-8), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS JAGS+10
LW, JAGS were getting a lot of points and my gut said JAGS but I thought that GB would blow them out. JAGS are playing tough even though they are not winning. They should be loose because no one expects them to win these games so there should be no pressure on them. So LW, they go to GB and give the PACKER faithful a scare. GB has to get a td in the 4th qtr with about 9:00 left and then play some DEF not to lose @HOME to JAGS. GB won 24-20 and I should have picked the JAGS. JAGS QB Jake Luton is not playing that bad considering what he is playing with. Plus, RB James Robinson is making a name for himself by getting good yardage and taking, at least, some of the pressure off with good performances. He had 109yds rushing on 23 carries vs GB. Robinson is making the best of a situation that has really no one behind him in the lineup. LW, PITT ran all over CINNCY like Wile E Coyote, 36-10. The only time CINNCY was in this game was briefly in the 2nd qtr when the score was PITT 12-7. But PITT scored the next 24pts unanswered and it was 36-7 in the 4th qtr and CINNCY was way out of it. BIG BEN was on fire going 27/46 for 333yds, 4tds, 0INTS, 0fumbles. However, PITT rushed for only 44 yds. But when you are winning in the air, keep it going. Big Ben is having a fine year and there is no reason for him to stop throwing if he is successful. PITT HC Mike Tomlin is a very good coach and knows how to make adjustments. He will do something that works until the other teams stops it, then he changes the game plan. But he has been there when JAGS have surprised PITT so he may be thinking about this game a little more. L10 JAGS vs PITT incl playffs, JAGS 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS. JAGS 19-29 ATS L48 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 9-10 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. JAGS 23-22 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 35-271 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 11-2 ATS L13 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 20-11-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. PITT 17-24 ATS L41 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 31-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 39-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 6-12 ATS L18 AWAY in NOV. PITT 2-6-1 ATS L9 after CINNCY. PITT 6-16 ATS as a non div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PITT 10-3 ATS L13 after scoring 25>pts. PITT 7-0 ATS after 35>pts vs div opp. PITT 1-13 ATS AWAY off SU win vs .333<opp. PITT 8-2 ATS L10 before div HM GM. JAGS play well vs the AFC NORTH and PITT in particular. JAGS beat PITT 2x in 2017. Once during the regular season and then in the playoff but, 2017 might as well be 50 years ago because JAGS have been awful since 2017. JAGS HC Doug Marrone was the JAGS HC then and he had PITT’s number, can he do it again? These two teams did meet in 2018 with PITT winning 20-16 but it wasn’t convincing. PITT has an X on their backs because teams would like to say that they knocked off a previously undefeated team. Who better to say that then Marrone? I like the points here because I don’t think PITT will have two back-to-back blowouts. JAGS will get out some trick plays and may catch PITT sleeping. Take the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+10 5 STARS
Tennessee Titans (6-3), (4-5) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS TENN+6
LW on SNF, BALT was embarrassed @NE. NE was in total control of this game and was playing catchup to no avail. BALT was up briefly but then NE brought out the trick book and went into rushing mode and BALT couldn’t stop them. BALT never got their run game established and needed QB Lamar Jackson to lead the way. Mind you that it rained hard mostly through this game but the DEF for BALT was not taking NE seriously and let the game slip by. On TNF, TENN was blown out by visiting INDY 34-17. The DEF and special teams gave the game away for TENN as INDY scored three straight times. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill didn’t necessarily have a bad game (0 turnovers) and RB Derrick Henry rushed for over 100 yards but, they were not the culprits in this loss. L7 TENN vs BALT, TENN 4-3 SUATS. TENN 5-12 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. TENN 33-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 28-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 4-3 ATS L7 after TNF. TENN 5-0 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. BALT 33-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 39-26 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 3-9 ATS before PITT. BALT 6-10 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 10-5-1 ATS after losing AWAY & returning HOME. BALT 1-6 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss. BALT 15-2 ATS in gms 9-12 vs non-div opp off DD ATS loss. BALT 11-2 ATS in gms 9-12 off AWAY vs non-div opp off DD SU loss. BALT 2-8 ATS off non-div SU FAV loss. TENN has to play a tighter game because after starting out 5-0, they have lost three of the last four games. Their only win was against a sliding CHI team that has problems of their own. BALT has to find themselves as they have lost two out of three and are suddenly looking down after staring 4-1. These are two very good teams and I expect a dogfight where a fg will decide the outcome. Turnovers will loom large here as they will turn into points. I like the big points that TENN is getting and the spread should have been smaller but take TENN and the points here as this should be a very good game. Look for TENN RB Derrick Henry to get going early.
THE PICK: TENN+6 5 STARS
NE Patriots (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-7), (1-7-1) ATS, (1-3), (1-3) ATS HOU+2
On SNF, NE was a BIG DOG @HOME vs BALT. Well, in a rain soaked game NE ran the ball 39x for 173 yds &1td. NE RB Damien Harris rushed 22x for 121 yds. NE QB Cam Newton threw 13/17 118 yds 1td, 0INTS & 0fumbles. But the key for NE was pulling out all the tricks and on a throwback to WR Jakobi Meyers then threw the ball to RB Rex Burkhead who beat a BALT defender and caught it in the endzone for a NE td. After NE took the lead on this play in the 2nd qtr, BALT was playing catchup the whole game to no avail. Final score was NE 23-17. This is the kind of game NE should have been playing all season. NE has lost games this season that they normally would lose and that even this team shouldn’t have lost. Games vs DEN & SF should have been wins while the game at BUFF also should have been a win. LW, HOU shot another dud, this time @CLEVE. CLEVE was up 10-0 and HOU finally found a way to score a td and make the score 10-7. But, CLEVE could have scored another td but didn’t. CLEVE RB Nick Chubb stopped short, untouched, at the HOU 1yard line so that CLEVE could run out the clock without giving the ball back to HOU. Plus, HOU created no CLEVE turnovers and sacked CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield 1x. This was a game of futility on both sides but CLEVE won and HOU lost. L9 NE vs HOU, NE 7-2 SU & 5-3-1 ATS. NE 33-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 36-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 15-2 ATS off SU non-div DOG win. NE 7-1 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU non-div DOG win. NE 15-1 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. HOU 15-17 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 23-18-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 8-3 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 14-5 ATS when <.500 & in gms 9-12 vs opp off SUATS win. NE has had to adjust to the style of Newton and the OFF has certainly changed because of the lack of receivers to throw to. But NE has enough RBs to wear a DEF down and get the job done. They will certainly do that vs HOU. NE also has a very good DEF that surprises teams into thinking that their receivers are open, when they are not. HOU has talent but no one to cultivate that talent. So whatever they have is wasted. I like NE to go in and beat up on HOU. The only way NE doesn’t win this game by more than a td is if they get turnoveridous or they cannot execute properly when they have the ball. Lay the 2pt here as HOU goes backward and NE gets to .500.
THE PICK: NE-2 5 STARS
Sunday November 22nd, 2020 4:00pm
Miami Dolphins (6-3), (7-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS DEN+3
Is MIA QB Tua Tagovailova the real deal? He certainly gets the rest of the MIA team pumped up and playing better. LW, @HOME vs LAC, MIA stormed out to a nice lead and never looked back in a 29-21 win. MIA probably could have scored more if it wasn’t for a fumble and a missed fg. But Tua is making good choices and so far and not turning the ball over. He does have one fumble lost but that was in the big win vs LAR, so it was not consequential. MIA is getting good input in the running game which doesn’t put all the pressure to perform on Tua. The DEF is also making plays which helps greatly. LW, DEN @LV, DEN was playing tight in the 1st half then fell apart in the 2nd half for an LV blowout, 37-12. 2INTS & 1 lost fumble in the 2nd half, put the kybosh on any hopes that DEN had of making this game competitive and beating LV. DEN QB Drew Lock single-handedly took DEN out of this game with 4INTS that resulted in stalled drives. The killer was the INT that Lock had in the endzone right before the 1st half that would have given DEN the lead. This seemed to take some momentum away from DEN’s game and some confidence from away from Lock. The run game for DEN was then put on hold as they had to play catchup the rest of the way and to no avail in the blowout loss. L6 MIA vs DEN, MIA 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS. MIA 5-7 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 13-2 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RG;s. MIA 38-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 29-27 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 9-5-1 ATS before NYJ. DEN 12-8 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. DEN 8-5-2 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. DEN 42-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 24-21 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 12-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 11-0 ATS as a non-div HD off div gm. DEN 1-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. DEN 0-7 ATS in gms 9-12 off div vs opp off non-div. Lock is questionable for this game with a muscle strain around his ribs but I suspect he will play in this game. But with 10 INTS in seven games, he needs to make better choices and give his team a chance. MIA has shown so far that they can beat bad teams which DEN is one of. The balance of MIA’s OFF has given Tua a chance to perform without all the pressure on him to win. MIA’s schedule gets tougher after this game the rest of the season so they should win this game outright before they get tested further. MIA does give up a decent amount of running yards but needs to put pressure on Lock to win this game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-3 5 STARS
NYJ (0-9), (2-7) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ LA Chargers (2-7), (3-4-2) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS NYJ+9
LW, NYJ were on a bye. NYJ 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they were on MNF @HOME vs NE, where they gave NE all they could handle until late in the 4th qtr. NYJ QB Joe Flacco threw an INT that led to NE taking the lead and winning 30-27. NYJ played well and should have won this game. To say that this season has been a disaster for NYJ is an understatement. NYJ QB Sam Darnold will definitely be out of this game again with a sore right shoulder and Flacco will be starting. NYJ do not play like a team that has a very bad record because there are still some talented players on both sides of the ball on this roster. Plus, they are playing for jobs. LW, LAC @MIA, LAC lost again. It wasn’t LAC QB Justin Hebert’s fault. It was the DEF’s fault who couldn’t make any stops and had LAC playing catchup the whole game to no avail. The LAC DEF doesn’t give up a lot of yards but they give up a lot of points, a little more than 27 a game. There are playmakers on the OFF but the DEF needs a couple of guys that would make the DEF tighter. Hebert should have a nice healthy career in the NFL but, LAC needs to get some players on DEF who can make a difference. L7 LAC vs NYJ, NYJ 2-5 SU & 3-3-1 ATS. NYJ 26-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 34-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 3-13 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. NYJ 18-19-1 ATS L38 as a DOG 7>pts. LAC 25-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 27-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 35-33-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. Both of these teams are coming off multiple losses in a row and are playing out the string to see what players are worth bringing back. For the NYJ this is probably the easiest opponent they have the rest of the season and the best chance at a win. Don’t get me wrong, NYJ HC Adam Gase is gone after the season. For LAC they need guys on DEF to make this team work. I don’t understand the big spread here but I love NYJ plus the points. I don’t think there will be a blowout by either team and I like the NYJ to actually win this game. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ+9 5 STARS
GB Packers (7-2), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS GB+2
On TNF, INDY took it to TENN @TENN, 34-17. TENN was actually leading at halftime 17-13 but INDY turned up their DEF and stopped TENN cold. In the 2nd half, INDY blocked a punt for a td, scored on a td after a short punt & held TENN on a 4th & 3 play late in the game. TENN RB Derrick Henry still ran for 100 yds but he didn’t do anything that put INDY at a disadvantage. INDY used a balanced attack to keep the TENN DEF on its toes. INDY used a committee of RBs to keep TENN guessing. LW, GB had their hands full @HOME vs JAGS. My gut said JAGS +13 ½ but I also felt that Rodgers & CO would go hog wild over the JAGS DEF. But, GB needed a 4th qtr td to take the lead and hold on for the win. GB had an INT & a lost fumble that turned into 10pts by the JAGS. It was a sloppy game on the part of GB because they didn’t take the JAGS serious. Add on top that JAGS had a punt return for a td and GB was seriously asleep at the wheel. Look for GB to make adjustments this week. L4 GB vs INDY, INDY 3-1 SUATS incl GB 0-2 SUATS @INDY. GB 22-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 29-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 16-18 ATS L34 vs AFC. GB 10-2 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 13-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. INDY 9-3-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. INDY 31-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 27-37-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 2-6-1 ATS after TENN. INDY 9-3 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .600>opp. INDY 4-7 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. INDY 14-10-1 ATS L25 as a FAV 3<pts. GB won’t be sleeping this week because INDY is better than the JAGS. But INDY really hasn’t beaten anyone. TENN is sort of on a downslide after starting strong and they were ripe for the pickings on TNF. The fact that this is in a dome and the weather will not be a factor should have Rodgers at his best. Rodgers has not won @INDY so he would like to add that to his record. GB RBs Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams should be very busy in this game. Jones hasn’t had a 100yd game since wk 2 vs DET and could use a breakout game. Look for him to bust out in this game. Take GB and the points because they should win outright.
THE PICK: GB+2 5 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (2-7), (1-8) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5), (6-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS DAL+7 ½
LW, on MNF, MINN was involved in a low scoring game. The DEF for MINN only allowed 2fgs offensively from CHI. The other scoring from CHI was a kickoff return for a td by CHI WR Cordarrelle Patterson. But, the MINN DEF did their job as the CHI OFF was stuffed most of the night. MINN QB Kirk Cousins finally had a win on MNF. MINN had 2turnovers which made this game closer than it should have been. MINN RB Dalvin Cook was stymied for most of the night because CHI was stuffing the box and making him run North-to-South instead of East-to-West. However, he did manage to rush for 96 yards but, it was on a hard fought 30 carries. DAL is coming off a bye. DAL 9-4 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before their bye, DAL was @HOME and was playing PITT very tough like no one expected. DAL was a BIG DOG @+13 ½ and everyone had this game as a PIT blowout. However, at one point DAL was up 13-0 and it looked like a major upset in the making. But PITT woke up with enough time to turn things around and win the game 24-19. DAL QB Garrett Gilbert was the starter and he didn’t do that bad of a job but he was just inexperienced. QB Andy Dalton will be starting this game, fresh off a concussion and some rest. The O-LINE right now is the problem for DAL because of injuries and we’ll see if they can open any running lanes for their RBs. Otherwise MINN will be teeing off on Dalton. L6 MINN vs DAL, MINN 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS incl (H) vs DAL MINN 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. MINN 7-3 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. MINN 35-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 33-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 9-3 ATS as a HF>3pts off BB SU wins. MINN 11-1 ATS off SU div opp vs .600<non-div opp. MINN 8-1 ATS L9 after CHI. MINN 6-1 ATS L7 vs NFC EAST. DAL 27-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 21-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 19-17-1 ATS L37 as a RAD DOG. DAL 7-10 ATS vs opp off SUATS wins. DAL 8-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. DAL 1-7 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. This is the matchup to watch DAL #31 RUSH DEF vs MINN #5 RUSH OFF. Believe it or not, Cook had an off game vs CHI as CHI was making sure that he didn’t have an open lane to run wild. The CHI DEF was stuffing the box at the line. DAL doesn’t have the personnel to stuff the box and a big game from Cook will take a lot of pressure off of Cousins to get the ball to his receivers. MINN hasn’t blown anyone out and this would be a good game to do it. Lay the points here as DAL has shown that they have been terrible on the road in 2020.
THE PICK: MINN-7 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 22nd, 2020 8:20pm
KC Chiefs (8-1), (6-3) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LV Raiders (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS LV+7
LW, LV @HOME destroyed DEN in the 2nd half of their game, 37-12. This game was LV 10-6 at halftime and DEN could have taken the lead before the 1st half ended but DEN QB Drew Lock threw a crucial INT. LV was the lucky recipient of 4INTS by Lock in route to this blowout. LV RB Josh Jacobs & RB Devontae Booker combined for 193 yds rushing and 4tds. LV outscored DEN in the 2nd half 27-6. KC is coming of a bye. KC 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, KC @HOME barely beat CAR 33-31. I liked CAR+10 ½ because CAR was playing competitively and KC would probably not take them seriously before their bye. Both of these happened and KC was lucky to get the win. If it wasn’t for a missed fg at the end by CAR, KC would have lost. KC has a lot of weapons on OFF & DEF that we all know about so no repeating here. L13 KC @LV, KC 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS. L27 KC vs LV, ROAD 16-10 SUATS. KC 7-6 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. KC 30-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 20-29 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. KC 28-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 8-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 13-6 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 11-2 AT AWAY with revenge. KC 11-2 ATS w/revenge. KC 10-1 ATS vs .500> div opp. LV 4-8-1 ATS 1nl in 2nd of BB HG’s. LV 37-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 22-35-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 33-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 1-7 ATS L8 after DEN. LV 6-2 ATS @HOME on SNF. LV 1-8 ATS on SNF off BB SUATS wins. KC HC Andy Reid made mention of the fact that he did not like LV making a victory lap around KC after the first game earlier this season. This gives KC a lot of motivation to take it to LV in their HOME field. Don’t be surprised if you see KC pull out some tricks to catch LV sleeping. LV is playing better but LV will not get the sweep in this series for 2020. Plus, they haven’t fully taken that next step upwards. Beating playoff caliber teams consistently shows strength and depth which is not what LV has done yet. I like KC to cruise over LV as Reid & CO have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and get the troops ready. LV will be coming down to Earth. Extra motivation is not what a team needs and that is what LV has given KC.
THE PICK: KC-7 5 STARS
Monday November 23rd, 2020 8:15pm
LA Rams (6-3), (5-3-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-2-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (7-3), (5-4-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-1-1) ATS LAR+3 ½
LW, TB @CAR was 17-17 at the half. But TB made some adjustments & took over in the 2nd half to cruise to a win, 46-23. TB RB Ronald Jones rushed for 192 yards which included a 98yd td run. It was team effort for scoring on the TB side as they stopped CAR cold in the 2nd half and limited them to a meaningless td. LW, LAR had a nice game @HOME vs SEA and they had a little help from SEA QB Russell Wilson who committed 3turnovers himself to take SEA out of any chance at taking over this game. The LAR DEF was also able to sack Wilson 6x and harass him and take him out of his game all day. LAR was leading 17-13 at the half and kept SEA from doing any scoring in the 2nd half except for a meaningless fg with :25 left in the game. By the way, LAR HC Sean McVay hasn’t forgotten the drubbing that TB gave them @LAR last season 55-40. There should be some payback here. L9 LAR vs TB, LAR 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS. LAR 16-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 25-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 24-19-1 ATS L44 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 4-7 ATS on MNF. LAR 1-5 ATS AWAY on MNF. LAR 0-5 ATS L5 after SEA. TB 6-8-1 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB HG’s. TB 31-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 25-23 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 0-6 ATS as a FAV on MNF off SU win. TB 5-7-2 ATS L14 off DD SU win. TB 1-4 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. TB 7-0 ATS in gms 9-12 off DD ATS win. TB 9-1 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> off DD SU win vs non-div opp. TB 7-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV off SU win vs opp off SUATS win. TB 1-10 ATS off div ROAD gm vs.700<opp. TB 1-4 ATS L5 after CAR. On paper this looks like a great game in the making. Brady has certainly has had many of these types of games. Goff needs to stay focused and the DEF needs to cover and harass as they have done to other teams. LAR are hard to predict week to week because you don’t know what to expect. I like this game to be close and for it to come down to the wire. I like the fact that LAR is getting points and that they are at times underrated. After a team wins in a big blowout such as TB, the next week they seem to fall off a little and that’s what the expectation is here. LAR need to put a string of wins together so that they can show everyone that they are for real. LAR have not really beaten any good teams except SEA which has a DEF that is last in the league. The DEF for LAR cannot get tricked by Brady because he will tear them apart. I am looking for an exciting and close game here so take the points.
THE PICK: LAR+3 ½ 3 STARS