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2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 12

2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday November 26th, 2020 12:30pm

Houston Texans (3-7), (2-7-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (0-4-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (4-6), (3-7) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS                                    DET+2 ½

LW, HOU @HOME beat a slightly favored NE team, 27-20. This game could have gone either way but the HOU DEF frustrated NE QB Cam Newton and stopped him when they needed to. HOU scored 3tds in the 1st half and then sort of coasted the rest of the way. There is still a lot of talent on this HOU team. HOU can get the job done, they just need the right coaching. LW, DET @ CAR, DET laid a goose egg. DET let an ex-XFL QB control the tempo of the game. QB PJ Walker filled in for the injured Teddy Bridgewater and made DET look like a POP Warner team. The CAR DEF sacked DET QB Matthew Stafford 5x and DET lost 20-0. I had liked DET in this game due to Bridgewater not being there but DET was a total letdown. HOU 10-10-2 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 21-13-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 13-12 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 6-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs <500opp. HOU 2-8-1 ATS on TNF. HOU 6-2-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. HOU 1-6 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. HOU 1-7 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. HOU 6-1-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts off SU win. HOU 1-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. HOU 9-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV <9pts off SU win. HOU 2-10 ATS AWAY vs <500 non-conf opp. DET 10-20-1 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. DET 33-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 25-50 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 0-11 ATS as a Thurs DOG. DET 3-19 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME DOG. DET 17-2-1 ATS after scoring 3<pts & 10-0-1 ATS as a DOG. DET 3-17 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU non-div loss vs non-div opp. DET needs to make major changes after this off-season starting with their HC. HOU needs an HC so that they can get back to trying to win games and stay relevant in the AFC SOUTH. The trend for DET on Thanksgiving. DET 0-8-1 ATS L9 as a DOG. L13, 4-9 SU & 4-8-1 ATS. Also L3, 0-3 SUATS. I see a continuing bad trend here for DET. Stafford played LW with a bad thumb but DET doesn’t have much at QB behind him. HOU should dominate this game on both sides of the ball. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: HOU-2 ½                                  5 STARS

Thursday November 26th, 2020 4:30pm

Washington Football Team (3-7), (5-5) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-7), (2-8) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS          WASH+3

LW, WASH was trailing @CINNCY and probably would have lost if it weren’t for CINNCY QB Joe Burrow going down with an injury. At the time Burrow went down, WASH was trailing 9-7. After Burrow went out, WASH climbed back and won 20-9. The fact that WASH QB Alex Smith is playing says something about the human spirit. CINNCY is bad but they keep fighting. But in the 2nd half with Ryan Finley as their QB it wasn’t much of a fight. LW, DAL was @MINN & gave them all they could handle. DAL was big DOG @+7 ½ and I felt MINN DEF looked good after beating CHI so I thought MINN would win in huge fashion. MINN didn’t have answer for a hyped up and motivated DAL team. DAL & MINN played a seesaw game with scoring going back & forth in the 2nd half but it was DAL that put together a drive late in the game with a td that won it for DAL 31-28. The DAL DEF didn’t have an answer for MINN RB Dalvin Cook as he rushed for 115yds & 1td. Cook didn’t do much damage and he did have a fumble which DAL turned into 3pts. DAL was able to score when they needed to & the DAL running game produced 180 yds and 1td. This was the first convincing win for DAL this season. L13 DAL(H) vs WASH, DAL 4-9 SUATS. L3 WASH @ DAL, DAL 3-0 SUATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, DAL 11-16 ATS. L13 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 8-5 ATS. L23 DAL vs WASH, DOG 13-9 ATS 1PICK’EM. DAL 43-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 46-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 29-21 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 7-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.600opp. DAL 8-0 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 w/revenge vs <.500opp. DAL 12-1 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. WASH 11-5 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 20-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 28-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 38-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 1-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. WASH 3-5 ATS on TNF. WASH 2-10 ATS vs div opp off SU win. These two teams played @WASH in wk 7 with WASH beating up DAL 25-3. In that game, DAL QB Andy Dalton suffered a concussion on which what appeared to be a cheap shot as he was sliding down. Nothing went right for DAL in that game but I’m sure DAL HC Mike McCarthy has reminded his players of that game leading up to this one. However, DAL has not had a good trend on Thanksgiving. DAL L9 on Thanksgiving, 4-5 SU but 1-8 ATS. These two teams don’t like each other and DAL will be trying to avoid a sweep by WASH. The revenge factor weighs heavily here. LW, DAL put together a good game, can they do it a second week in a row?   

THE PICK: DAL-3                                      3 STARS 

Thursday November 26th, 2020 8:20pm

Baltimore Ravens (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0), (8-2) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (4-1) ATS                        BALT+4

LW, BALT was run over by TENN RB Derrick Henry. Not only did he run for 133 yds but, he rushed 29 yards for the winning td in OT. This game was a dogfight and BALT could not stop TENN. The BALT DEF didn’t make tackles when they needed them and couldn’t stop TENN QB Ryan Tannehill from completing passes. BALT was up 21-10 in the 3rd qtr but TENN came back in a big way and the BALT DEF couldn’t stop them. BALT needed a fg with :15 left just to send the game to OT where TENN took the ball and went straight into the endzone. Going forward BALT RBs Mark Ingram & JK Dobbins are both out with COVID and will not be available for this game. That leaves QB Lamar Jackson & Gus Edwards as the runners. But this is a recipe for disaster because Jackson is not a prolific passer. Also, BALT 3-7 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. LW, PITT manhandled JAGS @JAGS, 27-3. Usually, JAGS play PITT tough and give them some sort of a game. At JAGS+10 I felt PITT would win but, JAGS would give it more of a game. Instead it was a tune-up for PITT. Big Ben spread the ball around nicely and after a JAGS 3-0 lead, PITT scored 27 straight points for the rout. It didn’t hurt that JAGS QB Jake Luton threw 4INTS that PITT turned into 14pts. L13 PITT(H) vs BALT, PITT 7-6 SU & 4-7-2 ATS. L27 PITT vs BALT, PITT 11-13-2 ATS 1NL. L28 PITT vs BALT, DOG 16-8-3 ATS 1PICK’EM. L25 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 16-7-2 ATS. PITT 7-9 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. PITT 33-23 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 31-25 AT @HOME in NOV. PITT 4-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 8-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PITT 6-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. PITT 3-4 ATS as a TNF FAV 14<pts. PITT 7-19-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 5-11 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. BALT 30-25 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 27-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BALT 33-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 1-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. BALT 0-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. BALT 9-1 ATS L10 as a div DOG. BALT 5-0 ATS as a DIV DOG >3pts. BALT 10-2-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs .750<opps. BALT 5-12 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 when .550> off non-div vs opp off BB SU wins. BALT 2-9 ATS off non-div FAV loss. BALT knows that they have to come out swinging but, PITT is just too stacked and the fact that BALT is without RBs puts them at a bigger disadvantage in this game because PITT will not stop the attack. These two teams met in wk 8 @BALT and PITT took care of business 28-24. Usually it is very hard for teams to sweep a divisional series but recently, in 2019 BALT swept SU and in 2017 PITT swept SU. After this game, PITT plays WASH, @BUFF, @CINNCY, INDY & @CLEVE. There is a chance that they can go 16-0. But first they need to take care of BALT. PITT should win by a td. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: PITT-4                                     5 STARS