2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 12
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 26th, 2020 12:30pm
Houston Texans (3-7), (2-7-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (0-4-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (4-6), (3-7) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS DET+2 ½
LW, HOU @HOME beat a slightly favored NE team, 27-20. This game could have gone either way but the HOU DEF frustrated NE QB Cam Newton and stopped him when they needed to. HOU scored 3tds in the 1st half and then sort of coasted the rest of the way. There is still a lot of talent on this HOU team. HOU can get the job done, they just need the right coaching. LW, DET @ CAR, DET laid a goose egg. DET let an ex-XFL QB control the tempo of the game. QB PJ Walker filled in for the injured Teddy Bridgewater and made DET look like a POP Warner team. The CAR DEF sacked DET QB Matthew Stafford 5x and DET lost 20-0. I had liked DET in this game due to Bridgewater not being there but DET was a total letdown. HOU 10-10-2 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 21-13-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 13-12 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 6-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs <500opp. HOU 2-8-1 ATS on TNF. HOU 6-2-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. HOU 1-6 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. HOU 1-7 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. HOU 6-1-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts off SU win. HOU 1-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. HOU 9-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV <9pts off SU win. HOU 2-10 ATS AWAY vs <500 non-conf opp. DET 10-20-1 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. DET 33-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 25-50 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 0-11 ATS as a Thurs DOG. DET 3-19 ATS in gms 9-12 as a HOME DOG. DET 17-2-1 ATS after scoring 3<pts & 10-0-1 ATS as a DOG. DET 3-17 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU non-div loss vs non-div opp. DET needs to make major changes after this off-season starting with their HC. HOU needs an HC so that they can get back to trying to win games and stay relevant in the AFC SOUTH. The trend for DET on Thanksgiving. DET 0-8-1 ATS L9 as a DOG. L13, 4-9 SU & 4-8-1 ATS. Also L3, 0-3 SUATS. I see a continuing bad trend here for DET. Stafford played LW with a bad thumb but DET doesn’t have much at QB behind him. HOU should dominate this game on both sides of the ball. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-2 ½ 5 STARS
Thursday November 26th, 2020 4:30pm
Washington Football Team (3-7), (5-5) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-7), (2-8) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS WASH+3
LW, WASH was trailing @CINNCY and probably would have lost if it weren’t for CINNCY QB Joe Burrow going down with an injury. At the time Burrow went down, WASH was trailing 9-7. After Burrow went out, WASH climbed back and won 20-9. The fact that WASH QB Alex Smith is playing says something about the human spirit. CINNCY is bad but they keep fighting. But in the 2nd half with Ryan Finley as their QB it wasn’t much of a fight. LW, DAL was @MINN & gave them all they could handle. DAL was big DOG @+7 ½ and I felt MINN DEF looked good after beating CHI so I thought MINN would win in huge fashion. MINN didn’t have answer for a hyped up and motivated DAL team. DAL & MINN played a seesaw game with scoring going back & forth in the 2nd half but it was DAL that put together a drive late in the game with a td that won it for DAL 31-28. The DAL DEF didn’t have an answer for MINN RB Dalvin Cook as he rushed for 115yds & 1td. Cook didn’t do much damage and he did have a fumble which DAL turned into 3pts. DAL was able to score when they needed to & the DAL running game produced 180 yds and 1td. This was the first convincing win for DAL this season. L13 DAL(H) vs WASH, DAL 4-9 SUATS. L3 WASH @ DAL, DAL 3-0 SUATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, DAL 11-16 ATS. L13 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 8-5 ATS. L23 DAL vs WASH, DOG 13-9 ATS 1PICK’EM. DAL 43-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 46-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 29-21 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 7-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.600opp. DAL 8-0 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 w/revenge vs <.500opp. DAL 12-1 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. WASH 11-5 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. WASH 20-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 28-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 38-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 1-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. WASH 3-5 ATS on TNF. WASH 2-10 ATS vs div opp off SU win. These two teams played @WASH in wk 7 with WASH beating up DAL 25-3. In that game, DAL QB Andy Dalton suffered a concussion on which what appeared to be a cheap shot as he was sliding down. Nothing went right for DAL in that game but I’m sure DAL HC Mike McCarthy has reminded his players of that game leading up to this one. However, DAL has not had a good trend on Thanksgiving. DAL L9 on Thanksgiving, 4-5 SU but 1-8 ATS. These two teams don’t like each other and DAL will be trying to avoid a sweep by WASH. The revenge factor weighs heavily here. LW, DAL put together a good game, can they do it a second week in a row?
THE PICK: DAL-3 3 STARS
WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 2nd, 2020 8:00pm
THIS GAME HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK FROM ITS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED DAY & TIME TO WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 2nd, DUE TO COVID. ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE IN THE ANALYSIS OF THIS GAME WILL BE ADDED AS NEEDED.
Baltimore Ravens (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0), (8-2) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (4-1) ATS BALT+4
LW, BALT was run over by TENN RB Derrick Henry. Not only did he run for 133 yds but, he rushed 29 yards for the winning td in OT. This game was a dogfight and BALT could not stop TENN. The BALT DEF didn’t make tackles when they needed them and couldn’t stop TENN QB Ryan Tannehill from completing passes. BALT was up 21-10 in the 3rd qtr but TENN came back in a big way and the BALT DEF couldn’t stop them. BALT needed a fg with :15 left just to send the game to OT where TENN took the ball and went straight into the endzone. Going forward BALT RBs Mark Ingram & JK Dobbins are both out with COVID and will not be available for this game. That leaves QB Lamar Jackson & Gus Edwards as the runners. But this is a recipe for disaster because Jackson is not a prolific passer. Also, BALT 3-7 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. LW, PITT manhandled JAGS @JAGS, 27-3. Usually, JAGS play PITT tough and give them some sort of a game. At JAGS+10 I felt PITT would win but, JAGS would give it more of a game. Instead it was a tune-up for PITT. Big Ben spread the ball around nicely and after a JAGS 3-0 lead, PITT scored 27 straight points for the rout. It didn’t hurt that JAGS QB Jake Luton threw 4INTS that PITT turned into 14pts. L13 PITT(H) vs BALT, PITT 7-6 SU & 4-7-2 ATS. L27 PITT vs BALT, PITT 11-13-2 ATS 1NL. L28 PITT vs BALT, DOG 16-8-3 ATS 1PICK’EM. L25 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 16-7-2 ATS. PITT 7-9 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. PITT 33-23 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 31-25 AT @HOME in NOV. PITT 4-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 8-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PITT 6-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. PITT 3-4 ATS as a TNF FAV 14<pts. PITT 7-19-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 5-11 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. BALT 30-25 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 27-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BALT 33-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 1-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. BALT 0-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. BALT 9-1 ATS L10 as a div DOG. BALT 5-0 ATS as a DIV DOG >3pts. BALT 10-2-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs .750<opps. BALT 5-12 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 1-8 ATS in gms 9-12 when .550> off non-div vs opp off BB SU wins. BALT 2-9 ATS off non-div FAV loss. BALT knows that they have to come out swinging but, PITT is just too stacked and the fact that BALT is without RBs puts them at a bigger disadvantage in this game because PITT will not stop the attack. These two teams met in wk 8 @BALT and PITT took care of business 28-24. Usually it is very hard for teams to sweep a divisional series but recently, in 2019 BALT swept SU and in 2017 PITT swept SU. After this game, PITT plays WASH, @BUFF, @CINNCY, INDY & @CLEVE. There is a chance that they can go 16-0. But first they need to take care of BALT. PITT should win by a td. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PITT-4 5 STARS
Sunday November 29th, 2020 1:00pm
LV Raiders (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS ATL+3
LW on SNF LV went toe-to-toe with KC @HOME in the dessert. LV had taken the lead 31-28 late in the 4th qtr. Problem was that it wasn’t late enough and there was still 1:43 left and KC had one timeout left. Well, KC QB Pat Mahomes drove down the field and delivered a td and LV was left to scramble. I felt KC would win by at least a td after LV had angered KC with a victory lap after beating KC earlier in the season. But, right now, LV seems to have KC’s number and is getting better themselves. LW, ATL was just flat broken @NO. Even without NO QB Drew Brees, ATL DEF looked lame. NO QB Taysom Hill made mince meat of the ATL DEF and NO rushed for a combined 168 yards and 3tds. This game was actually NO 10-9 at the half but ATL went 3x three and out while NO scored 2tds and the final score was NO 24-9. The ATL DEF has been a major disappointment. LV 2-5-1 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. LV 9-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. LV 36-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 20-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LV 7-1 ATS off SU div HM loss. LV 5-12-2 ATS after KC. LV 10-5-1 ATS off SU div loss. LV 6-1 ATS AWAY off SU div loss. LV 6-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 35>pts vs div opp. ATL 10-6 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. ATL 6-6 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. ATL 29-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 30-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 1-10 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 3-12 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 vs non-div opp. ATL 2-11 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 off div vs opp off SU loss. ATL is done and there is no question about it. ATL WR Julio Jones is questionable for this game but it almost doesn’t matter. LV is looking like they are playoff bound while ATL is going to be going through some major renovations after the season. LV has played better on the road than @HOME and LV has developed a nice 1-2 RB punch with Josh Jacobs & Devontae Booker. They should get it going this week to take some of the pressure off of LV QB Derek Carr. This is a bounceback for LV to get back on the horse. Lay the points here as LV should win easily.
THE PICK: LV-3 5 STARS
LA Chargers (3-7), (3-5-2) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-2-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (7-3), (3-6-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS LAC+5 ½
LW, LAC @HOME vs NYJ, LAC seemed to be in a battle with a team that was just trying to avoid being winless. At the beginning, the momentum clearly looked on the side of NYJ. But NYJ being NYJ, they gave it back to LAC with mistakes and LAC coasted to a 34-28 win. I liked NYJ+9 because I felt strongly that NYJ would give it their all and that LAC would win, but less than the spread suggested. I was right. LAC Justin Hebert is playing like a seasoned veteran but the DEF for LAC is pitiful. LAC has lost games they should have won. Plus, their special teams has made many costly mistakes. Also, the OFF could use another WR and maybe some O-LINE guys but that is not the problem with LAC. The DEF is the problem and for Hebert’s sake, I hope it is addressed in the off-season. BUFF is coming off a bye. BUFF 7-5-1 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before their bye, BUFF lost @ARZ on the infamous “Hail-Murray” play. ARZ WR DeAndre Hopkins caught a Hail Mary pass from ARZ QB Kyler Murray while surrounded by three defenders. It was an unbelievable throw and catch and won the game for ARZ. BUFF has yet to address their run game because QB Josh Allen cannot be their long term leading rusher. This will only lead to a catastrophe and then they will essentially be without two players on OFF. Also, the BUFF DEF is unpredictable because at times they stop everything and then at times they can’t stop anything. L7 LAC vs BUFF, LAC 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. LAC 34-22-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 36-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 5-10-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 25-7-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG >4pts since 2004. LAC 1-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. BUFF 36-22 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 28-17 ATS as a FAV in NOV. I like BUFF to win this game but less than the spread suggests. Hebert is a fighter and already a warrior and he doesn’t give up. Even if BUFF has a comfortable lead in this one, he will fight back and get the backdoor cover. But I really don’t think it will end up like that. This game will be a shootout and will come down to the wire with a fg at the end. It will be an exciting game with a lot of scoring and praise will be given to both QBs for a great game. Turnovers will be huge in this game. I like LAC with the points here.
THE PICK: LAC+5 ½ 5 STARS
NY Giants (3-7), (7-3) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (5-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1), (5-3-2) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-0-2) ATS CINNCY+5 ½
LW, CINNCY @HOME vs WASH, CINNCY lost more than the game, 20-9. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow who was playing well despite the team not winning, tore his ACL & MCL in his left knee and is gone for the season and maybe part of next season. CINNCY was leading 9-7 when it happened and CINNCY just caved after that. Ryan Finley mopped up to no avail. Going forward it will either be Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen who was brought up from the practice squad. Either one has had less experience at QB than Burrow has had this season. Also, no RB Joe Mixon in the mix who is out as well. CINNCY did have a shot vs WASH but with Burrow going down, CINNCY is very thin at a backup and they were lost. Look for CINNCY to be very busy after the season getting players. LW, NYG were on a bye. NYG 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, they beat PHILLY 27-17. QB Daniel Jones didn’t have any turnovers and the NYG DEF did their job as they held PHILLY when they needed to. Jones needs to spread the ball around and not be predictable. Jones will have all his receivers healthy and available and should burn it up come SUN. NYG 9-8 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. NYG 5-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NYG 22-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 30-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYG 9-8 L17 vs <.400opp. CINNCY 11-8-2 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 32 -33 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 44-37 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 17-15-2 ATS fter an SU loss & playing home. CINNCY 11-1 ATS as a non-conf HOME DOG. CINNCY 15-4-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 17-4 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 17-6 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 4-10 ATS vs opp w/rest 1NL. CINNCY 19-7 ATS as a DOG vs NFC EAST. CINNCY 9-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs NFC EAST. CINNCY 8-0 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU loss vs NFC opp. The key for NYG is to put pressure on whoever is the QB for CINNCY and make it so he is pressured into mistakes and turnovers. Believe it or not, NYG are battling for a playoff spot in the very weak NFC EAST and at this point, they are still in it. The key for NYG is QB Jones taking what the CINNCY DEF gives him. Don’t try to make something out of nothing, the CINNCY DEF is terrible so he needs to be a little patient. NYG RB Wayne Gallman has been filling in nicely and taking pressure off of Jones so that he can relax and play his game. Don’t be surprised if Gallman has a breakout game for over 100 yards vs CINNCY this week. He certainly will not get it in any games the rest of the season as the schedule for NYG gets a lot tougher as they play teams that are better and in contention for the playoffs. But this week, lay the points on the road as NYG should win by a td, if they don’t have turnoveridous.
THE PICK: NYG-5 ½ 5 STARS
Tennessee Titans (7-3), (5-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS TENN+3 ½
LW, TENN beat BALT in OT 30-24 @BALT. TENN 1-6 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. The BALT DEF didn’t want to tackle and certainly couldn’t stop TENN RB Derrick Henry. He rushed for 133 yds on 28 carries and had the rush to the endzone that won it for TENN. The key for TENN also in that game was having BALT QB Lamar Jackson stay in the pocket and try to make throws. BALT was actually leading 21-10 but TENN never quit. LW, INDY @HOME vs GB, INDY was trialing 28-14 at the half but also never quit. They came back and won it in OT, 34-31. INDY 2-0 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. The win for INDY was a combination of fighting back and the passiveness of the GB OFF in the 2nd half. When INDY saw they still had a chance at winning, the momentum swung and the INDY DEF was more aggressive. Add to the game that a GB WR fumbled the ball away in OT and gave perfect field position to INDY and it was lights out for GB. L13 INDY(H) vs TENN, INDY 10-3 SU & 7-5-1 ATS. TENN 7-8-1 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. TENN 20-31 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. TENN 34-32 ATS AWAY In NOV. TENN 29-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 6-1 ATS as a div DOG off DD ATS win. TENN 5-14 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 9-3 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. TENN 2-10 ATS in gms 9-12 off SU win vs opp off BB SU wins. TENN 6-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. INDY 6-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. INDY 32-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 26-20-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. INDY 28-37-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 8-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a FAV vs div opp. This is a revenge game for the game that INDY beat TENN on TNF two weeks ago. TENN couldn’t do anything right after taking a 17-13 lead and INDY did almost everything right. TENN had a blocked punt for a td, a missed fg and just plain bad special teams. I can certainly bet that TENN will look sharper in this game and will look to knock off INDY on their HOME field. One of the keys is pressuring INDY QB Philip Rivers. He was 29-39 for 308 yds with1td & 0INTs in the first matchup. TENN must pressure him into making mistakes which is an important part of a TENN win. I like that TENN is getting points and they have guys that never give up. In the first meeting, Henry rushed for 103 yds but wasn’t a factor in the 34-17 INDY win. Take TENN and the points as this game may go down to the wire and TENN should win outright.
THE PICK: TENN+3 ½ 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (4-7), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS CAR+4
LW, MINN was big FAV @HOME -7 ½ vs DAL. MINN laid an egg BIG TIME in a loss, 31-28. DAL who are going nowhere, outplayed MINN on both sides of the ball. The DEF for MINN couldn’t stop DAL and they couldn’t stop the DAL run game which rushed for 180 yds. MINN took a short lived lead in the 4th qtr but watched as they couldn’t make stops when they needed and DAL walked away with the win. Add to the fact that they only sacked DAL QB Andy Dalton 1x and DAL made the most of their chances. LW, CAR was @HOME vs DET. CAR pitched a shutout 20-0. CAR QB PJ Walker who played in the XFL was in for Teddy Bridgewater who was out. Walker made some nice throws and led CAR on 2td drives. He looked better than Stafford. DET had a lost fumble & a missed fg in their attempts. But DET was stagnated by CAR. CAR rushed for 116 yds while DET had 40 yds rushing for the whole game. L9 MINN vs CAR, MINN 5-4 SUATS. But HOME TEAM 6-3 SUATS. CAR 27-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 24-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 16-13-1 ATS L30 off DD SU win. CAR 4-12 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. MINN 7-3 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. MINN 35-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 33-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 20-5-1 ATS in non-div gms off a loss under HC Zimmer. MINN 12-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss. MINN is better than that. This is a bounceback game for them @HOME. Also, Bridgewater will be starting for CAR. MINN is the team that Bridgewater was originally drafted by. However, there will still be no RB Christian McCaffrey for CAR as he is still out. Yes, this may a little payback for Bridgewater to show MINN up but since MINN is on a bounceback at home I think they may be ready for him. CAR going into their bye. CAR 6-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. However, MINN is not surprising anyone. CAR is decent vs the run and you know that MINN will be looking to use RB Dalvin Cook as much as possible. This game will be closer than the spread suggest and it should go down to the wire with either team winning by a fg. Both of these teams have some positives and negatives. The MINN DEF gets very lost at times. Look what they did vs DAL. I like CAR with the points here.
THE PICK: CAR+4 3 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NE Patriots (4-6), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS NE+2 ½
LW, ARZ was @SEA on TNF. ARZ played valiantly but the odds were against them. SEA was @HOME with a double bounceback & Russell Wilson has never lost three in a row. Plus, ARZ beat SEA earlier in the season after SEA had the game so there was the revenge factor on top of it. The running game for ARZ was stagnant as they were playing catchup the whole night to no avail. But give ARZ QB Kyler Murray credit, he did not turn the ball over knowing hat he needed to play perfect just to have a chance. ARZ ended up losing 28-21. LW, NE @HOU, NE just plain out stinks. NE RB Rex Burkhead got injured and is done for the season. But the OFF for NE is pitiful. After beating BALT, it looked like NE would be turning things around only to look limp @HOU. NE QB Cam Newton is definitely done but I thought NE would take it to HOU seeing as they are bad too. But, now after that debacle, they are facing an ARZ team that is on the bounceback and looking to get back in the playoff hunt. Also, ARZ #2 RUSH OFF with #1 yds per carry at 5.2 vs NE #20 RUSH DEF. This would take a lot of pressure off of Murray if ARZ gets their running game in high gear. ARZ 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. ARZ 14-9 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 15-17 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ARZ 29-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 6-1 ATS off TNF SUATS loss. ARZ 2-18 ATS in gms 9-12 when .500> vs opp off SUATS loss. NE 27-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 28-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 28-13-3 ATS L44 (H) vs non-div. NE 13-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU Loss 4>pts. The DEF for NE is not playing as well as they have in the past and ARZ will be looking to score and score often here as NE will be looking just to hang on. The key for ARZ DEF is to not let Newton take off and let him think that he has control of the game. That is when he is the most dangerous. ARZ DEF needs to hurry him and make him make bad throws. Also, ARZ DEF needs to create some turnovers so That ARZ can get more scores. ARZ cannot turn the ball over and must play smart. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: ARZ-2 ½ 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NY Jets (0-10), (3-7) ATS, (0-5) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYJ+7
LW, MIA was @DEN & MIA pulled off a dud. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was pulled from the game and even Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn’t get the team a win. He threw an INT that essentially ended the game 20-13. DEN was ready in this one after MIA had been playing well with Tua as their QB. DEN ran all over MIA for 189 yds and 2tds. NYJ should take note. MIA has to execute when they have the ball. They didn’t but DEN did. LW, NYJ started out nicely then QB Joe Flacco gave LAC the momentum back with a PICK6. From then on, NYJ were playing catchup the whole game. Flacco is awful. That has been the story of NYJ all season. Plus, the play calling was atrocious in the 1st half which also helped put NYJ in a hole. Adam Gase has six games left as NYJ HC. The play calling was changed at halftime and NYJ made a game of it. But, when you are already in a hole 24-6 it takes a lot to win which NYJ do not have. LAC was a BIG FAV @-9 but I liked NYJ to keep it close and the final score was 34-28. I said that NYJ would get a backdoor cover in this game and they did. After LAC had a nice 34-19 lead in the 4th qtr, the DEF for LAC just played Prevent. They knew they had he game but NYJ made the score respectable and executed a TD and a gifted safety. LAC QB Justin Hebert had a great day vs NYJ DEF but, Hebert has a lot of talent. This week I’m sure that Fitzpatrick would like to play vs NYJ but Tua will be back at starter. Tua is less talented than Hebert and that’s why I think this game will be close. NYJ 4-11 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NYJ 22-18-1 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. L22 NYJ vs MIA, ROAD 14-8 ATS. L13 NYJ(H) vs MIA, NYJ 5-8 SU & 4-8-1 ATS. L27 MIA vs NYJ, DOG 17-9-1 ATS. NYJ 35-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 25-24 ATS va AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 31-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 19-19-1 ATS L39 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 1-7 TS in gms 9-12 w/revenge vs div opp. NYJ 2-9 ATS in gms 9-12 vs div opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 5-7 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 7-9 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. MIA 19-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. MIA 38-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 29-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 3-9-1 ATS vs .250<div opp. I like MIA to win this game no doubt but I’m not crazy about laying all those points on the road. NYJ have some fire and are playing not to go winless. They just need some average to a little better play from their QBs, as in 0turnovers. I have a funny feeling that the NYJ will play very tough and this game will be close. MIA is on the bounceback after losing @DEN but NYJ are playing for jobs and still have some fire, especially the WR core. Also, a little revenge factor for NYJ after being shutout 24-0 @MIA in wk 6. This will be on the minds of the NYJ. Expect a tight game here.
THE PICK: NYJ+7 3 STARS
Cleveland Browns (7-3), (4-4-2) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-2-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-9), (4-6) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS JAGS+7
LW, CLEVE @HOME beat PHILLY 22-17. It wasn’t that impressive by CLEVE. The only impressive stat was CLEVE RB Nick Chubb rushing 20x for 114yds. Other than that PHILLY QB Carson Wentz gave the game to CLEVE with a gift PICK6 and a safety. CLEVE has had only one impressive win this season and that was vs INDY. The others were vs CINNCY, WASH, @DAL, @CINNCY, HOU & PHILLY. All losers. They have lost @BALT, @PITT, LV, three playoff bound teams. The record for CLEVE is inflated but they are hopefully headed in the right direction and can build off this season. JAGS are in a total disarray but, with draft choices and a few players here and there, maybe they can turn it around in 2012. LW, JAGS were totally taken apart by PITT. JAGS were +10 and in the past, no matter their record, they played PITT tough. That’s what I was counting on. Unfortunately, after JAGS were leading 3-0, PITT had their way with JAGS for a 27-3 win. JAGS QB Jake Luton threw 4INTS which turned into 14pts and stopped any chances of making this game any bit of a challenge for PITT. It also stopped his progression as the JAGS starting QB. Mike Glennon who hasn’t started a game in three years will be the starter for JAGS. You know you have to done pretty badly if the team has a guy who hasn’t started in three seasons start over you. Glennon will be rusty. L8 CLEVE vs JAGS, JAGS 5-3 SUATS. CLEVE 7-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CLEVE 30-21 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEVE 12-13-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 2-6-1 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. CLEVE 7-0 ATS off BB SU wins (last vs non-conf). JAGS 5-14 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. JAGS 23-23 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 35-28-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 11-3 ATS L14 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 20-12-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. Originally I was thinking that JAGS could keep this game close but, with all their injuries to their receivers and the rest of the team, this game should be a cake walk for CLEVE. If CLEVE can’t beat a team like this by more than a td, then they have no business making the playoffs. To be a good team, you have to pummel the bad teams and beat the good teams. This is a game that CLEVE needs to win and win in a big fashion. Mayfield cannot get turnoveridous. He just needs to take what the JAGS DEF gives him and he will do fine. Plus, RBs Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt should combine to rush for over 200 yds in this game and have 2tds each. Lay the points here. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? But it rarely ever is.
THE PICK: CLEVE-7 5 STARS
Sunday November 29th, 2020 4:00pm
NO Saints (8-1), (5-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Denver Broncos (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS DEN+5 ½
LW, NO was @HOME vs ATL. NO was without QB Drew Brees and I figured Jameis Winston would be the QB. It was Taysom Hill who did a nice job at QB and beat hapless ATL, 24-9. This game had NO leading 10-9 at the half but, ATL couldn’t do anything right in the 2nd half while NO managed 2tds. I had liked ATL+5 because they always give NO a game but ATL is done and NO has other fish to fry. LW, DEN was @HOME vs MIA and beat them solidly 20-13. MIA was the ROAD FAV but were being denied and MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was benched in favor Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz wasn’t able to resurrect a win but did come close throwing an INT very late in the game on MIA’s last drive. DEN QB Drew Lock wasn’t exceptionally great but he did have RBs Melvin Gordon & Phillip Lindsey rushing for a combined 166 yds that took a lot of pressure off of him. Lock hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in his limited games due to injury. He has 7TDs & 11INTs. MIA had their chances in this game but didn’t make the most of them and let this one get away. NO 7-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NO 16-16 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. NO 37-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 39-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 5-11 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV. NO 4-12 ATS as a non-conf FAV 3>pts. DEN 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. DEN 13-8 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. DEN 43-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 25-21 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 14-6 ATS after an SU DOG win. DEN 7-10 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 3-7 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. DEN 2-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. 7-1 ATS in gms 9-12 as a DOG off SU DOG win. DEN is feeling pretty good about themselves after the win vs MIA. But, they are now playing a better team, NO. Taysom Hill will again be the starting QB and LW vs ATL he showed that he can throw the ball as well. NO should be able to put pressure on DEN QB Drew Lock and create some turnovers. The NO DEF sacked ATL QB Matt Ryan 8x. DEN will try to run the ball but NO needs to stop it so it is all on Lock’s shoulders. NO should win by a td if they take advantage of their possessions. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-5 ½ 5 STARS
SF 49ers (4-6), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ LA Rams (7-3), (6-3-1) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS SF+7
LW, on MNF I liked LAR+3 ½ @TB. LAR didn’t disappoint and won outright 27-24. LAR did it with DEF and some gifts from TB QB Tom Brady. The OFF needs to get their running game going because 37 total rushing yards will not cut it, if and when they get to the playoffs. A more balanced attack is in order and they should start with this game vs SF. SF has problems of their own with multiple injuries all over the place and on both sides of the ball. In their last game before their bye, they lost @NO, 27-13. I liked SF+9 ½ and they would have covered but SF QB Nick Mullins threw an INT in the endzone that nullified any back door cover. SF was actually up in this game 10-0 before NO woke up and starting playing in this game. NO could have scored more but they took it easy. This is a rivalry that goes back a while and SF is wounded and LAR needs to put the finishing touch here. L13 LAR(H) vs SF, LAR 4-9 SU & 6-7 ATS. L27 LAR vs SF, SF 18-8-1 SU & 15-12 ATS. LAR 23-39-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 22-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 20-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. LAR 5-0 ATS w/div revenge. SF 28-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 22-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SF 19-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 4-14 ATS w/rest. SF 2-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. This is a revenge game for LAR having lost 24-16 @SF on SNF in wk 6. LAR came out lame in that one and Jimmy G tore the LAR DEF apart with 23/33 268yds 3tds, 0INTS. But so far it looks like Nick Mullins will be in there for SF as Jimmy G is still recovering from a high ankle sprain which could require surgery after the season. LAR know that they need to keep pace and keep winning to be in the playoffs because nothing is set yet and their schedule just gets tougher from here on out. SF is a banged up squad and many players are out on both sides of the ball. They are coming off a bye. SF is 3-9-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. However in the last five years, SF is 1-4 ATS after their bye. With all their injuries and really not a big chance at making the playoffs, I would have to say, lay the points here and take LAR. LAR has a lot to play for and there is the revenge factor that comes into play. LAR should have a field day after being in a tight one on MNF.
THE PICK: LAR-7 5 STARS
KC Chiefs (9-1), (6-4) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (7-4), (5-5-1) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS TB+3 ½
On MNF TB was @HOME vs LAR. I liked LAR+3 ½ and they delivered 27-24. Brady made some mistakes but I wouldn’t put it all on him. The TB DEF didn’t make stops that they needed to make and LAR QB Jared Goff was able to throw the ball up and down the field. The TB DEF didn’t even sack Goff 1x. Goff & Brady both had 2INTS which were turned into 10 pts by TB and 7pts by LAR. Brady wasn’t making the right reads and his 2INTS were gifts. Brady is always looking to improve and he will make the necessary adjustments. He will not make those same mistakes this week. Plus, TB will be getting a well deserved bye after this game. TB 3-9 ATS since 2007 wk before bye. LW, on SNF, LV @HOME vs KC, LV thought they had the game when they scored a td with 1:43 left and the lead at 31-28. But, they left too much time on the clock and with one timeout, KC QB Pat Mahomes marched down the field and threw a td pass to a wide open TE Travis Kelce in the endzone for the 35-31 KC win. I knew that KC would avenge their earlier season loss to LV but I thought the margin of victory would be wider. Anyway, KC did what they needed to do and so far have the best record in the AFC. But this game is not going to be any pushover and Brady will look to take KC out with the way KC pushed him and NE aside last season. Brady is one that never forgets. TB 6-9-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. TB 47-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 31-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 13-16-3 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. TB 1-11 ATS as non-div DOGS >1pt off SU FAV loss. KC 21-13 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. KC 11-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 30-45 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 28-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 5-11 ATS after LV. KC 2-7 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. KC 9-0 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. Brady is not one to lose two in a row very often. So far with TB he has bounced back after a loss quite nicely going 3-0 SUATS after TB’s three losses. This will be a shootout with TB coming out either ahead or losing by a missed extra point. Either way, I like TB with points because Brady is one of those guys that takes being a DOG personally. KC has a lot of weapons but TB needs to step up their DEF if they want to stop the Mahomes express. Take the points here as Brady & CO take KC down.
THE PICK: TB+3 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday November 29th, 2020 8:20pm
Chicago Bears (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ GB Packers (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS CHI+8 ½
LW, GB had a game that they let get away. GB was @INDY leading 28-14 at halftime and it looked like they were going to run away with it. Well, the 2nd half came and GB was flat and INDY scored 3fgs & 1td on four straight possessions while GB punted 2x, lost a fumble and turned the ball over on downs. Then GB had a miraculous drive that ended in a fg to tie the game and go into OT. But GB again fumbled and it was just a matter of three plays for INDY to get into better fg position to kick the winning fg. GB 2-2 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. The GB DEF also needs to step it up as they have not done their job as a unit. GB has had only one convincing win this season and that was wk 3 @NO, 37-30. All the others were @MINN, DET, ATL, @HOU, @SF & JAGS. Losses to INDY, MINN & @TB. CHI is coming off a bye. CHI 3-8-1 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before their bye, they lost @HOME on MNF vs MINN, 19-13. They had no OFF except a Cordarrelle Patterson td on a kickoff. CHI QB Nick Foles was knocked out at the end of the game and left on a stretcher. CHI is on a four game losing streak after starting the season 5-1. Their OFF has been stagnated. RB David Montgomery will see a lot of touches in this game to take pressure off of Trubisky. CHI is in desperation for a win. L13 CHI @GB, CHI 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS. L18 CHI vs GB, GB 13-5 ATS. L19 CHI vs GB, ROAD 11-8 ATS. CHI 39-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 41-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 25-23 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 18-6 ATS before DET. CHI 10-13 ATS AWAY on SNF. CHI 11-17 ATS as a DOG on SNF. CHI 1-6 ATS w/rest off SU loss. GB 7-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. GB 26-23 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 35-38 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 28-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 15-4 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 10-5 ATS on SNF off SU loss. GB 13-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. GB 11-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. Rodgers owns CHI and coming off a loss he plays even better. GB has to play better if they are going to go deep into the playoffs. Mitch Trubisky is starting for CHI. This may be his last chance to impress anyone that he has what it takes to be an NFL QB. Unfortunately for him, he is starting in a game that Rodgers & CO are in bounceback mode. I see GB winning this game but not by more than a td because of what is at stake for Trubisky. He has had some games where you say to yourself, why can’t he always play like this? Well, this may be one of those games. CHI also needs to get more out of their running game then they have had to take pressure off of Trubisky. He needs to be clam and take what the DEF gives him.
THE PICK: CHI+8 ½ 3 STARS
Monday November 30th, 2020 8:15pm
Seattle Seahawks (7-2), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1), (3-7) ATS, (2-2-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS PHILLY+5 ½
LW, PHILLY QB Carson Wentz had another game with multiple INTS. One of them was for a PICK6. He even was sacked for a safety. PHILLY played catchup the whole game except for about three minutes in the 2nd qtr when the game @CLEVE was tied. PHILLY DEF did hold CLEVE to one OFF TD. PHILLY was able to rush for 106 yds as PHILLY RB Miles Sanders has been able to find some kind of groove the last two games. But, PHILLY seems to be playing catchup as Wentz can’t get out of his own way. The PHILLY DEF was able to sack CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield 3x but, gave up five sacks of Wentz, one resulting in a safety. PHILLY WR Alshon Jeffery has only been in two games but hasn’t caught a pass yet. After the season, PHILLY has to decide whether to move forward with Wentz or someone else, say Jalen Hurts. LW, On TNF, SEA took it to ARZ like I knew they would 28-21. This was payback for the loss incurred by SEA @ARZ in wk 7 on SNF when SEA had a 10 point lead late in the game and blew it. It s very hard to sweep the divisional series and I was counting on SEA playing this game a little differently. Plus the fact that SEA loves playing in PRIMETIME is a factor that always needs to be considered when discussing SEA. It was also a double bounceback for SEA & QB Russell Wilson has never lost three in a row. The SEA DEF actually stepped up in this game and stopped ARZ from running wild. ARZ was held to 57 yds rushing and ARZ QB Kyler Murray was held to 15 yds rushing. Plus, on a crucial 4th down & 10 for ARZ at the SEA 27 that was to decide the game, Murray was sacked for a loss by SEA DE Carlos Dunlap. L9 SEA vs PHILLY incl playoffs, SEA 8-1 SUATS. SEA & PHILLY incl playoffs, SEA 5-0 SUATS. SEA 20-19-1 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 27-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 34-39 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 1-6 ATS after TNF vs .<600opp. SEA 2-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. SEA 3-6 ATS after TNF. SEA 19-2 ATS in gms 9-12 when playing vs team w/revenge. SEA 32-10 ATS in gms 9-12 since 2009. SEA 10-2 ATS off div HG vs non-div opp. PHILLY 7-8 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 32-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 24-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PHILLY 6-13 ATS L19 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 6-13 ATS vs .666>conf opp. PHILLY 2-6 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. PHILLY 2-4 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. PHILLY 0-5 ATS L5 as a DOG vs opp w/rest. These two teams are going in opposite directions but have developed a little bit of a rivalry in the past few years. In 2019 SEA played @PHILLY in the regular season and again in the playoffs @PHILLY. Both times SEA won 17-9. In the first game Wentz had 1td & 2INTS then was knocked out of the playoff game as Josh McCown played well but couldn’t pull out a win. Russell Wilson had 1td & 1INT in the 1st game and 1td & 0INT in the playoff game. There may be some revenge on the minds of PHILLY but they just don’t have the horses to do it. However, it could be closer than the spread suggests. SEA has had a nice rest and should be ready for this one. However, PHILLY has nothing to lose and should show some bounceback of their own. There is certainly some pressure on Wentz and he needs to perform. Take the points here.
THE PICK: PHILLY+5 ½ 3 STARS
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