2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 14
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS) All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
The 2020 NFL season has been one of the most unpredictable seasons I've seen in a long time. There has also been a lot of missed tackling, sloppy play, dropped passes, paper thin defenses, stagnant offenses & no continuity by any team playing this season. Teams that should be winning games lose, and teams that should be losing games, win. With the COVID, team practices have been interrupted and normal training sessions have been postponed, delayed or outright cancelled. Also, with rosters sometimes changing at the last minute before gametime, it has changed the game before it can be fully analyzed completely. Many factors go into analyzing the NFL games and it has been extra difficult with all the distractions (no excuses). Hopefully 2021 we will have some sort of normalcy.
Thursday December 10th, 2020 8:20pm
NE Patriots (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ LA Rams (8-4), (7-4-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS NE+5
LW, NE beat up, destroyed and annihilated LAC in their home building, 45-0. NE had 0turnvers in this game, a blocked fg for td and a punt return for a td. LAC could do nothing right and NE could do nothing wrong. NE had more yards rushing (165) than passing (130) which has been their theme in 2020. NE QB Cam Newton didn’t need to direct the OFF in the air because the LAC DEF couldn’t stop the run. The DEF for NE did what they had to do and intercepted LAC QB Justin Hebert 2x. This game was NE 28-0 at halftime so you could turn your sets off there. LW, LAR went to ARZ and did what they needed to do to secure a win and take the lead in the NFC WEST. They beat ARZ 38-28. But in this game the LAR OFF did not falter and responded when they needed a drive with points after ARZ put up their own points. Late in the game, LAR CB Troy Hill picked off a Tyler Murray pass and returned it 35yds for the TD which sealed the game for LAR. But the LAR DEF picked their spots and made stops in this shootout sort of game. LAR 7-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. LAR 23-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 33-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 17-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. LAR 4-8 ATS on TNF. LAR 1-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. LAR 6-14 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NE 8-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. NE 23-11 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 34-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 6-0 ATS 500> vs non-div opp on TNF. NE 4-0-1 ATS on TNF off non-div gm. NE 2-0-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. NE 1-1 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NE 16-3 ATS off SU non-div DOG win. NE 6-3 ATS L7 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. NE 1-8 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win. NE 1-5 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. Right now LAR leads the NFC WEST because of a tie breaker but, they need to keep winning if they want HOME games in the playoffs. Some may look at this as a rematch of the SuperBowl from a few years ago but, NE is a completely different team than one that played in that SuperBowl. The LAR DEF has to stop Newton from taking off on the ground. He has proven so far that his passing skills are in decline and LAR needs to put pressure on him at every turn so that he cannot just take off and run. If Newton is shut down, there goes NE. LAR #2 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF & #3 RUSH DEF. NE has shown that whoever the RB is, they can get significant yards to keep any DEF on their toes and keep an NE drive going. LAR cannot take this game or team for granted and need to play well. Teams tend to come back down to earth after a blowout win and that is what should happen here. Lay the points here as LAR takes care of business.
THE PICK: LAR-5 5 STARS
Sunday December 13th, 2020 1:00pm
Houston Texans (4-8), (3-8-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (1-4-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (5-7), (5-7) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS CHI+2
LW, CHI QB Mitch Trubisky proved to everyone why he will not be with CHI in 2021. Trubisky fumbled the ball with CHI leading 30-27 and deep in CHI territory at the CHI 7yd line. DET recovered and later scored a td to win 34-30. CHI was leading this game 23-13 at the half and 30-20 in the 4th qtr. CHI has lost six straight after starting the season 5-1. Mitch’s stats on paper may look fine but, his game management and passes when needed are just not there. Meanwhile, DET QB Matthew Stafford was able to pass for over 400 yds & 3tds against a DEF that also just wasn’t there and falling. CHI #16 TOT DEF. This is a deceiving stat because in the first 6 games CHI had only given up more than 20 points 2x. In the losing streak CHI has given up 24, 26, 24, 19, 41 & 34 points. It seems to be only getting worse. I don’t know if Nick Foles can save this team. LW, HOU lost on a muffed snap that would have probably been a play that won it for HOU. INDY was leading 26-20 and HOU had 2nd & goal at the INDY 2yd line with 1:28 to play when a muffed snap led to a recovery by INDY. Game over. Had HOU gotten the play off, they would probably have scored and won the game. But a sloppy play cost them. That’s what happens to bad teams. HOU has found ways to lose this season that they probably couldn’t of imagined. L4 HOU vs CHI, HOU 4-0 SUATS. HOU 10-5-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. HOU 17-27-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 12-16-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 7-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs <.500 opp. HOU 7-2-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. HOU 1-5 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. HOU 1-8 ATS in gms 13-16 vs opp off SU loss 7<pts. HOU 2-10 ATS in gms 13-16 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU loss. HOU 3-10 ATS AWAY vs <.500 non-conf opp. CHI 13-15 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. CHI 6-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CHI 27-46 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 36-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 5-10-1 ATS before MINN. CHI 0-6 ATS L6 vs AFC. HOU is on a big bounceback here because of the lost game last week and how they lost. But right now, HOU is a bad team that needs to get better but unfortunately that will have to wait for the off-season. At least right now they can try to take their frustrations out. CHI has been spiraling down and it looks like the whole team is not on the same page. They lost a winnable game & Trubisky was the usual culprit. On paper HOU is a better team than CHI. CHI had to resort to Cordarrelle Patterson to help get them some yards on the ground and help balance the OFF. He has had more attempts this season at RB than any other season he has played. However, it may work this weekend because HOU is pretty bad vs the run. HOU #31 RUSH DEF. But then HOU has a much better QB who is in desperate need of someone to take him to the next level. This game is a toss up and HOU has a better team on paper. CHI can’t stop the bleeding as neither one of these teams is going anywhere this season. Turnovers will loom large here as neither one has a resilient OFF to get points on their own. Lay the points.
THE PICK: HOU-2 3 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (3-9), (2-10) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1), (6-4-2) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-0-2) ATS CINNCY+3 ½
LW, CINNCY was +11 ½ @MIA and I liked their chances just to keep it close. They started out the game 7-0 and missed a fg later in the game. Who knew how crucial that missed fg would be? MIA scored 19pts and CINNCY was driving late for a possible back door cover. The ball was intercepted and that was it, MIA 19-7. CINNCY has had a lost season ever since QB Joe Burrow went down and they could possibly easily lose the rest of their games. They play DAL, PITT, @HOU & BALT. Tough schedule as three of those teams will be fighting for playoffs and possible positioning. LW, DAL started well vs BALT but with 3 missed fgs by usually reliant K Greg Zeurlein, an OFF that seemed to be in reverse at times, DAL lost @BAL 34-17. Terrible play from a team that was blown out @HOME by WASH on Thanksgiving, 41-16. Not to mention that DAL gave up 294 yds rushing and you wonder why BALT didn’t score 50 points. L4 DAL vs CINNCY, DAL 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. DAL 16-12-1 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 11-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DAL 26-43-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 25-44-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 13-5 ATS AWAY off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SUATS loss. DAL 2-13 ATS in gms 13-16 when <.500 AWAY. CINNCY 12-8-2 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 10-4-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. CINNCY 45-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 42-37-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 12-1 ATS as a non-conf HOME DOG. CINNCY 15-4 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 18-6 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 11-1-1 ATS L13 before PITT. CINNCY 7-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs opp off SU loss. CINNCY 20-7 ATS as a DOG vs NFC EAST. CINNCY 10-1 ATS @HOME as a DOG vs NFC EAST. DAL QB Andy Dalton would like nothing else but to win this game this weekend. Yes, this has been a disaster of a season for DAL and no one thought at the beginning of the season that he would be starting these many games but, this is a winnable game and Dalton would love to show CINNCY and his fans that he still has it. His numbers aren’t so bad considering how the rest of the team has performed and how decimated DAL is with injuries. But Dalton still has RB Elliott who has also underperformed. There are still receivers who can catch and that is what Dalton is counting on. CINNCY has not scored more than 17pts in their last four games and they don’t look like they will score more this weekend. Lay the points as DAL actually wins a game by 10 points.
THE PICK: DAL-3 ½ 5 STARS
GB Packers (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (5-7), (4-8) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (0-5) ATS DET+7 ½
LW, DET showed some guts and glory @CHI. DET was down 23-13 and 30-20 in this game but, didn’t give up and came back to win 34-30. Late in the game with DET trailing 30-27, DET DE Romeo Okwara made a strip of CHI QB Mitch Trubisky deep in CHI territory and DET recovered. It only took two plays to score a td and DET prevailed. It was a nail biter because after DET scored, CHI moved down the field but were unsuccessful on a 4th & 1 from the DET 20 yard line. It was close game but DET prevailed a week after the GM & HC were fired. LW, GB was coasting 23-3 vs PHILLY and then PHILLY made a change @QB. Suddenly PHILLY scored a td on a pass from Jalen Hurts and PHILLY returned a punt for a td and the score was now 23-16. GB RB Aaron Jones did his best interpretation of Beastmode and took a carry and went 77 yds for a td that broke a few tackles along the way. Before this run, it looked like GB was going to blow the 9 ½ pt spread that they were favored by after playing a little lacksidasical in the 4th qtr. GB prevailed 30-16 but it was close. L13 DET(H) vs GB, DET 5-8 SU & 6-7 ATS. L27 DET vs GB, DET 13-13-1 ATS. L19 DET vs GB, HOME 10-8-2 ATS. DET 10-20-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. DET 41-40-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 29-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 29-25-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 5-7 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. DET 1-7 ATS after CHI. DET 0-6 ATS as a HD 13<pts vs opp off DD SU win. GB 18-20 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. GB 58-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 34-29 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 35-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 6-8 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV 6>pts. GB 3-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins. These games are always a battle and they know each other very well. These teams met in wk 2 @GB and GB won 42-21. There may be a little revenge on the minds of DET and a new found resurgence now that HC Matt Patricia is gone. DET has not been a rollover in the motor city. DET RB Adrian Peterson still has something to prove and so does Stafford if he wants to play for DET past this season. DET will certainly be motivated in this game. GB has a lot to play for too as they are battling for a playoff spot. I like GB to win but, not by the spread numbers. I like this game to be closer and it could come down to the wire. Take DET and the points.
THE PICK: DET+7 ½ 3 STARS
KC Chiefs (11-1), (6-6) ATS, (6-0) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-4), (9-3) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (5-1) ATS MIA+7 ½
LW, MIA @HOME beat CINNCY 19-7. The spread was CINNCY+11 ½ and I liked CINNCY just to keep it close. CINNCY started out well with a 7-0 lead but then proceeded to beat themselves. It was sloppy on both sides and CINNCY missed a fg in the 2nd qtr that would have made it a cover. MIA RB Myles Gaskin who came back from injury is looking to prove himself. If he has a good game, he takes a lot of pressure off of QB Tua Tagovailoa. Gaskin needs to prove that he is durable. LW, DEN gave KC a scare. DEN should have won but KC managed to fight it out and survive, 22-16. KC kicked 5fgs & 1td for their scoring. I liked KC because I thought for sure KC would put on a show but, it was the running game for DEN that put on a show for 179 yds. DEN QB Drew Lock didn’t throw much but, he did throw for 2tds although he did have 2INTs. The key is for MIA to shake up KC QB Pat Mahomes, if that’s possible. If they can get him a little off his game, MIA has a chance. L6 MIA vs KC, 3-3 SUATS. MIA 6-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. MIA 21-12-1 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. MIA 31-43 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 29-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 20-12 ATS L32 as a non div DOG 7>pts. MIA 8-2 ATS as a DOG 11<pts after allowing 10<pts. MIA 8-2 ATS before NE. MIA 9-3 ATS @HOME vs conf opp off 3+wins. MIA 7-0 ATS as a DOG 10<pts vs AFC WEST. KC 7-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. KC 21-14 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. KC 33-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 39-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 19-14-1 ATS L34 vs AFC EAST. KC 15-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. KC hasn’t beaten anyone by more than six points in their last four games. Plus they are 0-4 ATS in those games. MIA is a feisty bunch and should keep things close. This may be a trap game for KC as they may be looking ahead to their game next week @NO. I like the fact that the spread is more than a td because KC may be up and MIA gets a back door cover. KC has a tendency to let up when they know the game is won. That is why they are losing ATS. Plus, who knows? Take the points here.
THE PICK: MIA+7 ½ 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ NY Giants (5-7), (8-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYG+2 ½
LW, ARZ lost @HOME to LAR, 38-28. ARZ was playing catchup for most of this game after they had an early lead of 7-0. LAR DEF & OFF made the plays that were the difference in this game. A big swing of momentum came when LAR was leading 31-21, LAR CB Troy Hill intercepted a Kyler Murray pass and returned it for a td to make the score 38-21. LAR DEF held the ARZ running game in check and Murray was contained mostly to the pocket. LW, NYG had a stunning upset of SEA @SEA, 17-12. SEA was a BIG FAV @-10 and even I thought that SEA would bulldoze the NYG. But NYG came to play. The big play of the game was when SEA blocked a NYG punt for a safety instead of a td. This made the score SEA 5-0 instead of 10-0 and NYG were only behind by one score and not two scores. However, NYG proceeded to score 17 unanswered points while SEA was stagnated and SEA QB Russell Wilson was sacked 5x. NYG DT Leonard Williams sacked Wilson 2.5x. The OFF for SEA seemed to be running in place while NYG RB Wayne Gallman had his first 100yd rushing game of this season. He rushed 16x for 135 yards. NYG had 190 yds combined rushing. This was the difference in the game. L8 NYG vs ARZ, ARZ 5-3 SUATS. ARZ 14-10 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 20-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 28-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 13-3-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 5-1 ATS after LAR. NYG 11-20 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. NYG 3-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NYG 44-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 35-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 1-5 ATS as a non-div DOG off an SU DOG win. ARZ has lost three straight games and their season is starting to slip away after it looked so promising. They have accomplished great things this season but must keep pushing forward. No one expected NYG to have five wins this season especially after RB Saquon Barkley went down. But right now they are leading the NFC EAST, go figure? I like ARZ to bounce back here as they get back on track and fight for a wild card spot. This will be a game that will be fought hard and any turnovers will loom large. I don’t see ARZ losing a 4th straight game. NYG QB Daniel Jones is scheduled to come back for this game and he may be a little rusty and have turnoveridous. We’ll see but, I like ARZ to win by a td.
THE PICK: ARZ-2 ½ 5 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (7-5), (6-5-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS MINN+6 ½
TB is coming off a bye. TB 7-5 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before their bye they lost @HOME to LAR and then to KC. Both were by the scores of 27-24. This team was looking good at 7-3 but, now not so good. TB has lost to some top teams. Their five losses are NO 2x, @CHI, LAR & KC. Their wins have come vs CAR 2x, @DEN, LAC, GB, @LV & @NYG. This is a big test for TB if they can bounceback and position themselves for a playoff spot and a playoff run. LW, MINN got all they could handle @HOME vs JAGS. I liked JAGS+9 ½ @MINN because I didn’t think MINN was all that good. But JAGS beat themselves after they built a 16-6 lead. MINN needed OT and a gift from JAGS QB Mike Glennon to get the win. MINN 4-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. MINN RB Dalvin Cook got his yardage in this game but he needs to do it again this week. L6 MINN vs TB, TB 4-2 ATS. MINN 34-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MINN 31-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 22-15-2 ATS L39 in DEC. MINN 12-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 8-6 ATS before CHI. TB 32-33-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 23-28-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 16-1 ATS L8 before ATL. TB 2-11 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME vs non-div opp. This is going to be battle because MINN has an outside shot at a playoff spot and TB is fighting for a playoff spot. This game could be a shootout as both teams have prolific OFFs when they get going. I don’t like the fact that last week MINN needed a lot of help to get a win as they did the week before vs CAR. But, I like TB to win this game by a very small margin, maybe 3pts. If RB Dalvin Cook gets going, watch out. TB #1 RUSH DEF. He takes a lot of pressure off of Cousins if he is successful. However, I don’t see a blowout here by either team because just too much is at stake for both clubs. Take the points here.
THE PICK: MINN+6 ½ 3 STARS
Denver Broncos (4-8), (6-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (4-8), (7-5) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS DEN+3 ½
CAR is coming off a bye. CAR 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they were leading at MINN 21-10 but couldn’t hold on and lost 28-27. CAR let MINN score 18 pts in the 4th qtr. You have to finish off teams and cannot let them think that they have hope. I liked CAR because of the way they matched up and I thought Bridgewater was showing MINN what they missed. LW, DEN played KC tough on SNF. KC was a 14pt FAV but was frustrated by the DEN DEF. DEN held KC to 1td and 5fgs for a 22-16 loss. DEN had their chances but couldn’t get it going. CAR 33-22 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 25-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CAR 21-23-2 ATS L46 as a FAV 4pts or less. DEN 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DEN 21-26 ATS as DOG in DEC. DEN 31-38 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 6-10 ATS AWAY after KC. DEN 7-10 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. At first I was liking DEN because of the way they played KC tough LW. But, since the game, DEN has lost CB AJ Bouye for the rest of the season for PEDs, CB Bryce Callahan went on IR because of his foot & CB Essang Bassey sustained a knee injury and he’s out. Three big starters out and Bridgwater is dying to get back on the horse. CAR should have definitely won outright vs MINN and I had picked them to do so. With the injuries to DEN and the readiness of CAR, I like CAR to win this game by a td. Both of these teams will be looking to add pieces to their teams to make them better and more competitive.
THE PICK: CAR-3 ½ 3 STARS
Tennessee Titans (8-4), (6-6) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-11), (6-6) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (3-3) ATS JAGS+7 ½
LW, JAGS were leading 16-6 @MINN and forgot how to secure a win. They ended up going to OT where JAGS lost 27-24. JAGS 4-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. JAGS are desperate for a win and haven’t won since wk 1. It almost feels like last season. JAGS QB Mike Glennon had 2 INTs, 1 lost fumb & a safety which contributed to 16 MINN pts (One was a PICK6). But Glennon has experience and this will certainly be a test for him this week to rectify his own ship. LW, TENN was bum rushed @HOME vs CLEVE. CLEVE was scoring left and right all over the TENN DEF in the 1st half and it was CLEVE 38-7 at the half. Turn your sets off there. Final score was CLEVE 41-35. TENN played catchup the whole 2nd half but to no avail. TENN gave up passes to 10 different CLEVE receivers. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield looked like a superstar with over 300 yards passing and 4tds, 0INTs. L13 JAGS(H) vs TENN, JAGS 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS. L23 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 13-10 ATS. L27 JAGS vs TENN, DOG 14-13 ATS. L10 TENN vs JAGS, TENN 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS. JAGS 30-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 33-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 27-19 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. JAGS 3-15 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. TENN 7-11 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 32-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 29-31 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 26-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 3-12 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. TENN 2-11 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. 4-16 ATS after scoring 35>pts. TENN 1-8 ATS AWAY after scoring 35>pts. TENN 0-6 ATS L6 as a FAV >7pts. This game has the possibility of being a shootout and JAGS QB Mike Glennon is looking for that 1st win this season. He almost had it LW but I think he got a little anxious. Let’s say, a lot anxious. He has to be careful this week because he is playing against a team that is playoff bound and is on a mighty big bounceback. These teams met in wk 2 with TENN being a heavy FAV and TENN barely won, 33-30. Do I think TENN wins this game? Yes, but they don’t cover the spread. JAGS are still playing for pride and jobs and Glennon is trying to show that he still has it. JAGS RB James Robinson has been a find and takes pressure off of Glennon. He needs to get yardage this week. TENN RB Derrick Henry will get his yards but JAGS need to stop everything else. Take the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+7 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 13th, 2020 4:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ LV Raiders (7-5), (7-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS LV+3
LW, IND barely beat HOU. HOU was driving late in the game and it was muffed snap that led to a turnover by HOU around the HOU 2yard line that was recovered by INDY that won the game for INDY 26-20. INDY QB Philip Rivers did play well and connected on 27 of 35 passes for 285 yds 2tds & 0INTS. LW, LV was lucky they were playing the incompetent NYJ and their coaching staff. This was a game that LV should have lost because they played poorly. LV gave up 206 yards on the ground and passes to six different receivers. They should have lost because NYJ were going toe to toe with them and scoring LV was up 24-13 in the 4th qtr and let NYJ get back in it and take the lead 28-24. But when LV finally got the ball with about :30 to play, the recently departed NYJ DC Greg Williams called out an all-out blitz that LV QB Derek Carr was able to read and threw a perfect pass to WR Henry Ruggs, who beat his defender with no support for the td to take the lead and the win at 31-28. Carr & the Raiders were very lucky and but have to stay focused and get on a hot streak. L7 INDY vs LV, LV 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS. LV 17-23-1 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. LV 6-8 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. LV 26-39-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 30-53-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 8-3 ATS L11 vs AFC SOUTH. LV 4-12 ATS before LAC. INDY 14-11-1 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 9-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. INDY 34-36-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 33-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 10-6 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. INDY 6-3 ATS L9 after HOU. INDY 16-10-1 ATS L27 as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 3-17 ATS in gms 13-16 when .500> off SU win vs opp off AWAY gm. INDY is coming off a win but, a very lucky win at that. LV is coming off a win and a very lucky one at that too. Both of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot and nothing is guaranteed. I really don’t see a blowout by either team but I do see a shootout. This game could come down to the wire and turnovers will loom large. Also, LV is very familiar with Rivers having played him many times when he was with LAC. LV RB Josh Jacobs is coming off an ankle injury but last week RB Devontae Booker did fill in and gained 50 yds on 16 carries but LV needs Jacobs to carry the load and take pressure off of Carr. Right now Jacobs is still questionable but he would be huge in this game. Had INDY lost LW vs HOU I would look for INDY on the bounceback but, since both teams won, I like LV here.
THE PICK: LV+3 3 STARS
NY Jets (0-12), (4-8) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS NYJ+13 ½
LW, the NYJ snatched defeat from the hands of victory on an all out blitz in the waning seconds of their HOME gm vs LV. NYJ were leading 28-24 when the now fired DC Greg Williams called an all out blitz on LV with about :10 left. This left no one deep to cover any of the LV receivers. LV QB Derek Carr was quick to see what was coming and threw a perfect long pass to WR Henry Ruggs for a td with :05 to win the game for LV. LV won 31-28 and NYJ lost again. NYJ QB Sam Darnold didn’t help his cause either by turning the ball over 3x (2 fumbles, 1INT) that resulted in 10 LV pts. But NYJ RB Ty Johsnon was a pleasant surprise with 104yds rushing on 22 carries and 1TD. NYJ did have a combined 206 yds rushing. But, it was the NYJ DEF that let everyone down and DC Greg Williams was fired on Monday. LW, SEA had their own misfortunes in an upset loss @HOME vs NYG. SEA was a heavy FAV (-10) vs NYG but if you were watching the game, you would have thought that the NYG were the FAV. The turning point was when SEA blocked a punt for a safety. Had it been recovered for a td instead of a safety, the score would have been SEA 10-0 instead of SEA 5-0. There is a big difference because it would have been a two score game instead of a one score game. NYG QB Colt McCoy managed the game well but NYG RB Wayne Gallman was the star with 16 carries for 135 yds SEA seemed to have no answer for a running game that ran at will. The DEF for SEA was definitely a sore spot in this game which has been a problem all season. The OFF for SEA couldn’t get going either as Russell Wilson was sacked 5x. NYG beat SEA 17-12. L4 SEA vs NYJ, SEA 3-1 SUATS. NYJ 4-10-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NYJ 36-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 43-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 20-20-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. SEA 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. SEA 34-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 43-24 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ have nothing to lose and should have won last week vs LV. This week, they play a DEF that is actually worse. SEA #31 TOT DEF w/ #32 PASS DEF & #5 RUSH DEF. SEA did give up a total of 190 yds rushing vs NYG so NYJ do have a shot at a ground game. SEA S Jamal Adams would like to have a big game vs his former team, so he will be a factor here. Darnold needs to recognize when Adams will be attacking. I do think that SEA bounces back here but NYJ gives them a game as they try to avoid 0-16. SEA doesn’t have much of a pass rush so Darnold should have a good game if he doesn’t get in his own way. Also, the big three receivers for the NYJ should have a big day as the secondary for SEA is weak. No more “Legion of Boom”. This game should be closer than the spread suggests if the NYJ don’t get in their own way. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ+13 ½ 5 STARS
NO Saints (10-2), (7-5) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1), (3-9) ATS, (2-3-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS PHILLY+6 ½
LW, NO was up 21-9 @ATL and they were driving for a score that would have certainly put the game out of reach for ATL. But, NO QB Taysom Hill turned the ball over and soon after ATL scored a td to make the score 21-16. Now we had a game but ATL couldn’t get into the end zone again and the final was NO 21-16. NO rushed for 206 yds which kept the ATL DEF on its back. However, NO has to put teams away when they have the chance otherwise they could lose. LW, GB was beating PHILLY 23-3 when PHILLY decided to make a change @QB. QB Carson Wentz went out and in came Jalen Hurts. Hurts directed a td drive which made the score 23-10. Then PHILLY returned a punt for a td and now the score was 23-16 but then GB RB Aaron Jones did his best impression of Beastmode in a td run of 77yds and the final score was GB 30-16. But Hurts started a spark where there was none before. Now he is starting. It will be a tough task for Hurts because NO can beat you many different ways and every week someone else shines for the team whether it is on DEF or OFF. But we will see. L6 NO vs PHILLY, NO 4-2 SUATS. NO 18-16 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. NO 35-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 35-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 6-11 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV >3pts. NO 6-23 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 3-12 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 2-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV <14pts vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. PHILLY 7-9 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 33-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 32-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 1-8 ATS as a conf DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. PHILLY 6-3 ATS off 3+ SU losses. PHILLY 6-15 ATS vs .666> conf opp. PHILLY 2-8 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. PHILLY 1-9 ATS as a conf DOG off DD SU loss. NO has clinched a playoff spot but needs to keep winning to secure the #1 seed and a bye. Hill has been a competent replacement @QB while Drew Brees recovers. He is getting more comfortable at throwing the ball every week. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is starting this game which could mean the end of Carson Wentz in PHILLY. I like NO here because they have a way of beating you with guys who seem to step up after you have forgotten about them. Look for the NO DEF to blitz and cover their DEF so that Hurts cannot get comfortable. NO will cause a couple of turnovers and NO should cover the spread. Also, don’t be surprised if NO scores a lot on OFF too. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-6 ½ 5 STARS
Atlanta Falcons (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (3-9), (3-7-2) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS LAC+2 ½
LW, LAC got completely destroyed @HOME by NE 45-0. On top of the usual suspect play calling by LAC HC Anthony Lynn, missed fgs by K Michael Badgley, 2 special teams tds (against), ghost defense by LAC and a lack of support on OFF you have a tight game. Lynn needs to be gone and LAC needs to build around QB Justin Hebert, period. Keep a few players, get rid of the rest. LW, ATL actually had a chance late vs NO after it looked like NO would extend their lead after leading 21-9. Instead, ATL created a turnover and turned it into a td of their own for a NO lead of 21-16. But, ATL couldn’t get back into the endzone even after moving the ball into position. Final score was NO 21-16. This season has been a no-go for ATL as well and they have to decide if interim HC Raheem Morris is deserving of being the next HC. This should be a big game for the ATL OFF. ATL 11-12-1 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. L4 ATL vs LAC, ATL 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. ATL 34-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 36-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 6-7 ATS before TB. ATL 3-9 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 13-2 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs on-div opp. ATL 1-8 ATS vs .333<opp. LAC 7-11-1 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. LAC 5-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAC 29-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 29-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 19-9-1 ATS before LV. LAC 2-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 0-9 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. LAC 9-2-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 5-14 SU & 7-11-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH. LAC 2-7 ATS @HOME vs NFC SOUTH. This is a game that the ATL OFF should go full force against the LAC DEF. The LAC DEF is terrible. I don’t know how the LAC DEF is ranked so high because every time I watch them, they can’t stop anyone. Both of these teams have nothing to play for but ATL is even better on paper and will have a field day vs LAC. This is the last game that ATL is winning in 2020 because their next three games are TB, @KC & @TB. Those games will have playoff implications for the opposition. Take ATL & lay the points here.
THE PICK: ATL-2 ½ 5 STARS
Washington Football Team (5-7), (7-5) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ SF 49ers (5-7), (5-7) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS (Glendale, ARZ) WASH+3
LW, WASH did the impossible, they beat PITT @PITT 23-17. WASH was don 14-0 and came back and stomped PITT for their 1st loss of the season. WASH QB Alex Smith made great decisions and did not turn the ball over in the come from behind win. Also, the WASH DEF made stops when they needed them and held PITT to just 3pts in the 2nd half. WASH has played a lot better when Smith is in control. The WASH DEF has also gotten better as the season has progressed. WASH #4 TOT DEF w/ #3 PASS DEF & #10 RUSH DEF. LW, on MNF the SF DEF was shredded by BUFF, 34-24. SF played catchcup most of this game as BUFF stormed out to a 17-7 lead in the 2nd qtr. The SF DEF had no answer for BUFF QB Josh Allen who threw 32/40 for 375 yds, 4TDs & 0INTs. It didn’t help that SF QB Nick Mullins had 2INTs. Mullins is a good QB but he still has a lot of learning to do. L8 SF vs WASH, WASH 3-5 SU but 4-3-1 ATS. ROAD 5-2-1 ATS. WASH 37-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 38-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 4-8 ATS after MNF. WASH 8-4 ATS after 3+ATS wins. WASH 12-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG in gm 13-16 vs opp off HOME gm. WASH 10-1 ATS in gms 13-16 in 2nd of BB vs non-div. SF 5-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. SF 31-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 32-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 8-15-1 ATS L24 as a FAV. SF 4-14 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 8-16-2 ATS L26 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 3-15 AT L15 as a FAV vs <.500 opp. Yes, SF is on a bounceback but they are not going to the playoffs. They have had too many injures and too many losses to be atop of the NFC WEST or even make the playoffs. WASH has something to play for and their DEF has gotten better as the season wore on. Alex Smith has made this team better and right now he can lead this team to a winning season. This game will certainly be a battle and it may go down to the wire. SF has not played well at HOME wherever HOME is and I certainly see that continuing here. After beating PITT there cannot be a letdown for WASH. They need to stay the course. I like them here.
THE PICK: WASH+3 5 STARS
Sunday December 13th, 2020 8:20pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1), (9-3) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-3), (5-6-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS BUFF+2 ½
LW, BUFF stormed out to a 17-7 lead in the 2nd qtr @SF and never looked back. BUFF QB Josh Allen was on fire throwing 32/40, 375 yds, 4TDS & 0INTS. BUFF won 34-24. The DEF for BUFF made stops when they needed them and also intercepted SF QB Nick Mullins 2x. I thought the SF DEF would put up more of a fight but they were beaten almost all night. Plus, the BUFF DEF did what they had to do to control SF. LW, PITT took a nose dive after leading 14-0 in the 2nd qtr @HOME on MNF vs WASH. From that point on, it looked like PITT would romp and they would get their 12th win. But WASH made adjustments in the 2nd half and PITT was stymied. It doesn’t help that PITT right now has absolutely no running game and the weight of the OFF is squarely on Big Ben’s shoulders. It doesn’t help any that PITT Had something like seven dropped passes in this game which have been a problem this season. CB Joe Haden who is a leader on the DEF left with a concussion and his replacement was shredded by WASH QB Alex Smith. The PITT DEF had no answer for JD McKissic who caught 10 passes and seemed to be wide open at times. L6 BUFF vs PITT, PITT 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. BUFF 24-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 30-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 21-15-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs non-div since 2003. BUFF 11-4-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 10-14-1 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 7-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. BUFF 5-2 ATS @HOME on SNF. PITT 6-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. PITT 17-24 ATS L41 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 28-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 47-36 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 10-16 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 10-20 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp PITT 14-15 ATS AWAY on SNF. PITT 12-17 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PITT 11-0 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 1-7 ATS before div RG. PITT 0-4 ATS L4 vs AFC EAST. Right now BUFF is on fire. They are realizing that they have a god team and they can make a statement by running the tables on the rest of their schedule. After this game they play @DEN, @NE & MIA. The BUFF DEF is getting better but the OFF seems to have many weapons available as WR Cole Beasley catches everything in his path. The running game needs to step it up a bit to have a more balanced attack. PITT didn’t adjust properly after their narrow win vs BALT as it showed vs WASH and I don’t think their running game gets going vs BUFF. BUFF will be pumped for this game. I like BUFF in this contest as I don’t see PITT bouncing back with all the OFF on the shoulders of Big Ben.
THE PICK: BUFF+2 ½ 5 STARS
Monday December 14th, 2020 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (7-5), (6-6) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (9-3), (5-5-2) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS CLEVE+2
LW, CLEVE took it big to TENN @TENN, 41-35. The score doesn’t tell the real story as CLEVE was up 38-7 @halftime. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield had an almost perfect day throwing 25/33, 334 yards, 4tds & 0INTs. He did have one lost fumble that was turned into a TENN TD but that was TENN’s last scoring of the game. CLEVE scored on all six possessions that they had in the first half, 5tds & 1fg. It was great day for CLEVE as they showed they can beat a playoff caliber team. LW, BALT took it to DAL on Tuesday Night Football, 34-17. BALT got most of their full squad back and ran over DAL who hasn’t had a clue for most of the season. BAL used a ground game that rushed for 294 yds and 2tds on 37 carries. QB Lamar Jackson rushed 13x for 94yds and 1td while throwing 12/17, 107 yards, 2tds & 1INT. It didn’t help any for DAL that their K Greg Zeurlin missed 3fgs. L13 BALT @CLEVE, BALT 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS. L22 BALT vs CLEVE, ROAD 14-8 ATS. L24 BALT vs CLEVE, BALT 20-4 SU & 15-9 ATS. BALT 17-13-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 30-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 37-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 27-24 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. BALT 6-1-2 ATS L9 on MNF. BALT 4-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. CLEVE 15-26-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEVE 13-23-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEVE 33-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEVE 4-13-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEVE 3-8 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off DD SU win. CLEVE 3-12 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEVE 3-7-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CLEVE 1-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. These two teams are battling for playoff position and a wild card spot. They met in wk 1 with BALT winning in BALT, 38-6. It wasn’t much of a game as CLEVE couldn’t do anything right and it looked like they would be headed for a long season. CLEVE turned their season around and now they are looking for the playoffs for the first time in a very long time. BALT has winnable games going forward, they just need to stick to the game plan. CLEVE had an impressive win LW but BALT is just too tough when they get their game going. Lay the 2points as this game will be a tug of war with BALT winning by a fg.
THE PICK: BALT-2 3 STARS
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