2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 15
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 17th, 2020 8:20pm
LA Chargers (4-9), (4-7-2) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-3-2) ATS @ LV Raiders (7-6), (7-6) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS LAC+3
LW, LAC was given gifts at the end of the game to get a win @HOME vs ATL. ATL QB Matt Ryan threw 2INTS in the last 4 minutes of the game to give LAC an opportunity to win the game. After the first INT, LAC QB Justin Herbert threw and INT to give the ball back to ATL. But, Ryan gave it back to LAC with nice field position. This time LAC took the ball 49yards, in 6plays in :30 seconds to kick the winning fg. I had liked ATL-2 ½ because on paper, the ATL OFF was much better than the LAC DEF. All told, Ryan had 3 INTS that turned into 10 LAC pts. ATL was up 17-10 at halftime and did nothing after that. All three of Ryan’s INTs were in the 2nd half. LW, LV got steamrolled by INDY 44-27. INDY rushed for 212 yds and 2tds. LV was hanging around within striking distance trailing 27-20 but INDY took over in the 4th qtr and scored 17 straight points to put the game out of reach at 44-20. LV scored a dummy td to make the final score 44-27. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed 20x for 150 yds & 2tds. LV had no answer. LV QB Derek Carr had 2INTS. One was a PICK6 and the other was turned into a fg. He needs to make better choices. Carr is another one of those QBs that needs everyone around him to be great for him to be great. LV needs to get their running game going in this one. LV#12 RUSH OFF vs LAC #21 RUSH DEF. Look for LV to get their running game going early to take pressure off of Carr. L13 LV(H) vs LAC, LV 5-8 SU & 5-7 ATS 1NL. L25 LV vs LAC, ROAD 14-9-1 ATS 1NL. L22 LV vs LAC, DOG 16-4-1 ATS 1NL. LV 5-8-1 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB HG’s. LV 26-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 18-30-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LV 26-38 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LV 4-7 ATS vs AFC WEST on TNF. LV 1-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. LV 8-5-1 ATS @HOME after off SU loss >10pts. LV 3-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. LV 0-2 ATS as a FAV on TNF. LV 1-9 ATS as div HF <8pts vs opp w/revenge. LV 70 ATS in gms 13-16 vs div opp off SU DOG win. LV 0-11 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp off SU DOG win. LAC 28-34 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 30-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 34-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 4-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. LAC 4-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. LAC 8-4 ATS on TNF. LAC 6-4 ATS vs AFC WEST on TNF. LAC 1-5 ATS as a DIV DOG off SU DOG win. LAC 9-4 ATS L13 before DEN. If LV HC Jon Gruden is going to take this team deep into the playoffs, he needs some better players on DEF and better discipline for his players. Missed tackles, missed assignments and dropped passes will not get you anywhere except consistent losses. LV is still fighting for a playoff spot so they still have something to play for here. LAC will probably be still celebrating their win vs ATL and will not be focused. LV QB Derek Carr needs to made good passes. LAC HC Anthony Lynn has made a lot of suspect calls during the season that have cost this team wins. LAC needs a HC that can cultivate the talents of this team and the new players that they need and will acquire in the off-season. These two teams met in wk 9 with LV barely winning @LAC 31-26. LV knocked the ball away from a LAC receiver on the last play to escape with the win. Has LV learned from this? We’ll see but LV should bounce back here. I see this game being tough for LV but they should win by 5pts. Lay the points.
THE PICK: LV-3 5 STARS
Saturday December 19th, 2020 4:30pm
Buffalo Bills (10-3), (6-6-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Denver Broncos (5-8), (7-6) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS DEN+6 ½
On SNF, BUFF took care of a suddenly struggling PITT team @PITT, 26-15. BUFF had a PICK6 of Big Ben which set the tone of this game in the 2nd half. In fact, BUFF was leading 23-7 and was stopping PITT at almost every turn. The DEF for BUFF was coming up BIG. The BUFF DEF stopped the PITT’s run game at 47 yds and had PITT playing catchup. BUFF QB Josh Allen had a nice game and BUFF WR Stefan Diggs was unstoppable with 10 catches for 130 yds and 1td. LW, DEN came to play @CAR. DEN took command of the game in the 3rd qtr with DEN QB Drew Lock’s 3rd td pass of the game which made the score DEN 19-7. In total, the CAR DEF gave up 4td passes and 96 yds worth of rushing. CAR only sacked Lock 1x while sacking CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater 4x. Lock did have a lost fumble that was turned into 7pts by CAR. But that was CAR’s only scoring until past the midway point of the 3rd qtr. The CAR DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it and Lock picked the secondary apart. These two teams played at BUFF last season with BUFF winning 20-3. Brandon Allen was the QB in that game for DEN and he didn’t play particularly well. It’s a different story this season. L7 DEN vs BUFF, BUFF 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS. DEN 22-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 26-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 13-8 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. DEN 14-7 ATS L21 after an SU DOG win. DEN 5-9 ATS as a non div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. DEN 1-7 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. DEN 0-6 ATS L6 before LOAC. BUFF 8-11 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 9-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. BUFF 38-27 ATS AWAY in DECD. BUFF 34-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 6-9 ATS AWAY after SU DOG win. BUFF 87 ATS 1NL before NE. BUFF 2-10 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp w/revenge. There can be no letdown by BUFF in this game. They are still battling MIA for position atop the AFC EAST and the playoffs. But BUFF may not take DEN seriously after beating PITT. That’s what happens to teams that are not used to winning. DEN still has games to play and certainly could play spoiler this week and in wk 17 vs LV. Plus, it’s good that Lock gets comfortable and the OFF gets going. The DEF is starting to play better and that will give this team hope in 2021. But for right now, BUFF escapes with a win in a heavily fought game. Turnovers also loom large. BUFF wins out by 3pts. But I like DEN and the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+6 ½ 3 STARS
Saturday December 19th, 2020 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (4-9), (7-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ GB Packers (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS CAR+8 ½
LW, CAR got slammed @HOME by DEN 32-27. CAR was playing catchup all day and it was DEN 25-10 in the 3rd qtr. Remember, this was against DEN. DEN rushed for 96yds vs CAR, how many yards are GB RBs Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams going to get vs CAR? Plus, CAR gave up 4 passing tds from DEN QB Drew Lock, how many will Rodgers have? Plus, the CAR DEF only sacked Lock 1x. Is that going to cut it vs GB? LW, GB toyed with DET. I liked DET +7 ½ because of the points but there was no way that DET was beating GB unless GB had a total meltdown like they did @TB earlier in the season. Rodgers threw 3tds with 0INTs and GB didn’t have any turnovers. This game was actually 14-14 at the half and then GB took over in the 2nd half. But the game was decided when GB kicked a fg to make the score GB 31-21. DET came back with a fg to cut the score to 31-24 and at least get the cover. But that was it. L9 GB vs CAR, GB 5-4 SUATS but HOME 6-3 ATS. GB 8-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. GB 38-24-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 58-34-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 24-8-1 ATS L33 after div gm. GB 19-4 ATS as a FAV after div gm. CAR 7-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CAR 29-24 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 36-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 10-6 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. How is the CAR DEF going to react when they are playing Rodgers, the great magician? GB has to keep winning because they are trying to secure the #1 playoff spot that would give them a bye. If GB and NO tie, GB gets the higher seed because GB beat NO @ NO in wk 3, 37-30. The GB DEF has to play a tighter game and not take for granted that the CAR season is over. CAR would like to play spoiler even though they have had a very up and down season, mostly down. CAR Teddy Bridgewater has done fine considering the team around him. I like GB to go off here as they want to make sure that there is no doubt that they are deserving of the #1 seed. By playing on SAT and setting the tone for NO, there will be a lot of pressure on NO to win their game. They will make mistakes and lose.
THE PICK: GB-8 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 20th, 2020 1:00pm
TB Buccaneers (8-5), (7-5-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-9), (5-8) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS ATL+5 ½
ATL QB Matt Ryan is a joke. Anyone who thinks that this guy belongs in the Hall of Fame should have their credentials revoked. LW @LAC he threw 2INTS in the last four minutes of the game to blow the game 20-17 to LAC. ATL was up at halftime 17-10 and couldn’t score a point in the 2nd half against one of the worst DEFs in the NFL? LAC turned two of his 3INTS into 10 pts. I liked ATL as my pick of the week @-2 ½ and they could beat the lowly, badly coached LAC? Pretty bad. Now they play a TB team that is playing for playoff positioning. ATL isn’t playing for anything because their season has been over for some time and they play TB 2x in three weeks. Throw in KC in the middle and ATL could actually end up 4-12. This team needs to be blown up and I don’t think Ryan should be the starter next season if there is someone out there or that they can draft who can do better. LW, TB got lucky. MINN K Dan Bailey missed 3fgs and 1extra point. That’s 10 pts off the board and TB scored 17points off those missed fgs. This would have been a totally different game. I liked MINN+6 ½ because I felt That MINN would give them a good game and TB may come away with a small margin of victory but, the Kicker lost the game for them, all by himself. The rest of the OFF did their jobs but Bailey blew it for MINN. No one can predict that a kicker is going to have the day that Dan Bailey had. TB got away with one. A team as a whole becomes deflated when you walk away with 0pts and give the other team great field position on top of it. TB didn’t have that great a game stopping MINN or scoring points but, what they did do was sack MINN QB Kirk Cousins 6x. L13 TB @ATL, TB 5-8 SU & 7-5-1 ATS. L18 ATL vs TB, HOME 9-8-1 ATS. L19 ATL vs TB, FAV 10-8-1 ATS. TB 6-6 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. TB 14-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 24-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 28-31 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 24-28-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 5-8-2 ATS L14 off DD SU win. TB 10-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s vs .700< opp. ATL 11-7 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. ATL 30-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 31-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 28-31 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 3-9 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss. This is two teams going in opposite directions. This game has blow out written all over it. TB needs to keep winning and winning big. ATL has a crappy team and crappy coaching staff and they should clean house there too. There are games that ATL should have won during the season that would make their record a little easier to swallow but, there are so many holes on this team, they need a lot of work coming in the off-season. For ATL, it would better to lose the rest of the games and get a better position in the draft. Lay the points here as TB, Tom Brady & CO dismantle ATL and score 40 points. Also, look for the TB DEF to sack Ryan at least 4x.
THE PICK: TB-5 ½ 5 STARS
SF 49ers (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (4-9), (3-10) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (1-5) ATS DAL+3
LW, DAL was @CINNCY and DAL won 30-7. This was a lock because DAL QB Andy Dalton was making a return to CINNCY after being cut by CINNCY after last season and you know he wanted to win this game very badly. Dalton went 16/23, 185 yds, 2tds, 0INTS & 0 fumbles. DAL even rushed for 101 yds. DAL scored their first 17pts from three straight fumbles by CINNCY. In the 2nd half DAL didn’t do much but got some easy gifts from CINNCY on field position which made scoring another td a snap. LW, SF got swarmed by WASH DE Chase Young who was a one man wrecking crew in this game. He had a fumble return for a td and a sack. He made the OFF miserable for SF and SF QB Nick Mullens made mistakes. He had a fumb that was returned for a td and a PICK6. SF RB Jeff Wilson had a fumb that was turned into 3pts. The WASH DEF was all over SF. The SF DEF did knock QB Alex Smith out of the game and Dwayne Haskins came in but he didn’t do any further damage to SF. L6 SF vs DAL, DAL 5-1 SU & 3-2-1 ATS. SF 16-8 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. SF 14-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. SF 26-41 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 32-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 3-10 ATS L13 before ARZ. SF 8-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. SF 8-17-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 4-8-1 ATS L13 off SU FAV loss. SF 1-15 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. DAL 13-8-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. DAL 7-6 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. DAL 26-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 26-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 9-4 ATS as a DOG vs NFC WEST. DAL 10-2 ATS off SU win vs .333<opp. DAL has been racked by injuries and underachieving play this season. RB Ezekial Elliott has not looked the same a year after signing that big contract. SF is coming off a loss where Mullens didn’t play that well. SF RB Jeff Wilson had a fumb that was turned into 3pts. It’s the DEF that has won games for SF this season. SF WR Deebo Samuel is out with a hamstring injury and that is a setback for the team. The DEF for SF can sometimes take over a game and after the last game they are probably fired up. I like SF here because they have a knack for playing better after a mistake filled game. DAL might be riding high after their victory but the team is terrible. They beat CINNCY, so what!
THE PICK: SF-3 5 STARS
Detroit Lions (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (9-4), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS DET+10 ½
LW, the only reason I liked JAGS+7 ½ is because they have been keeping games close. Well. TENN RB Derrick Henry had other ideas as he rushed 26x for 215yds and 2tds. Also, TENN QB Ryan Tannehill passed 19/24 for 212 yds 2tds & 0INTs. JAGS couldn’t keep up and the score was 31-3 in the 3rd qtr. The DEF for the JAGS couldn’t stop TENN. Plus, the OFF for JAGS was stymied most of the game against a TENN DEF that goes hot and cold. LW, DET was @HOME vs GB. GB QB Aaron Rodgers was his usually great self and DET and QB Matthew Stafford tried to keep up. I liked DET +7 ½ because I kne, no matter what, that DET would keep it to a one score game. They kicked a fg with 1:49 left knowing that they needed an onside kick and a miracle to tie. They didn’t get the onside kick and lost 31-24. DET’s season has been over for a while and LW was vs GB was their SuperBowl. This team will go through a lot of work in the off-season and Stafford may or may not be back. TENN 35-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 33-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 6-2 ATS as a DD FAV. TENN 6-21 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 4-19 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 1-6 ATS L7 as a FAV >7pts. TENN 2-11 ATS @HOME off DD SU win vs conf opp. DET 42-40-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 31-33-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 3-7 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. DET 2-11-1 ATS after div HOME gm. TENN is fighting for playoff position and who is going to stop RB Derrick Henry? Tannehill has shown that he can get it done against good teams. TENN has beaten BUFF, BALT & INDY. TENN’s schedule is not that easy and their next two games are @GB & @HOU. They need to focus on this game and get it done. DET hasn’t beaten anyone good on the road. They have beaten ARZ after DET started 0-2 so that was desperation. DET then beat @JAGS, @ATL @@CHI. They lost @GB, @MINN & @CAR. I would put TENN at about where GB is right now. No, I am not comparing QBs but, record wise and how they have both played. TENN needs to get Henry running early and often and that will open up the receivers for Tannehill. DET lost @HOME LW to GB by 7pts. How many points do they lose by on the road to a team fighting for the playoffs, this week? If Stafford doesn’t start for DET it will be a bigger blowout. Lay the points.
THE PICK: TENN-10 ½ 3 STARS
Houston Texans (4-9), (3-9-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (1-5-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (9-4), (8-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS HOU+7
LW, HOU was blasted @CHI 36-7. HOU was totally outplayed and out coached in every aspect by CHI. CHI was desperate for a win but, I thought on paper HOU was a better team and would be able to beat CHI. I was wrong. HOU will be going through a major overhaul in the off-season. Now they play a better team with playoff implications. LW, INDY was @LV. The game was close for three quarters. Then INDY took off and ended up steam rolling over LV 44-27. INDY QB Philip Rivers has put up stable numbers in INDY. He’s a decent QB who gives stability to the position. He’s not great and will not get you to the SuperBowl but, INDY will be going at least to a 2nd round playoff game. He is experienced and knowledgeable but needs guys around him to do their job. AT LV, he wasn’t even sacked 1x which lets him see the field and make his throws. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 20x for 150 yds & 2tds vs LV. INDY rushed for a total of 212 yds vs LV. CHI rushed for 169 yds vs HOU. What will INDY do this week? L13 INDY(H) vs HOU, INDY 10-3 SU & 8-5 ATS. L21 HOU vs INDY, HOME 10-10-1 ATS. L23 HOU vs INDY, 11-10-1 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L23 INDY vs HOU, INDY 15-7-1 ATS. INDY 34-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 31-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 34-29 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. INDY 5-7 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. INDY 2-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 0-14 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. INDY 4-17 ATS in gms 13-16 when .500> of SU win vs opp off AWAY game. HOU 6-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. HOU 17-28-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 18-21 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 23-19-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 9-5 ATS after allowing 35>pts. HOU 9-3 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 13-1 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts vs .750<opp. HOU 9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.750 non-div opp. HOU is terrible against the run. HOU #31 RUSH DEF. INDY is better at rushing than CHI and should run all day over HOU. INDY is playing for playoff position. HOU is playing for nothing and trying not to get hurt. HOU is also a very poorly coached team and they need a coaching staff who knows what they are doing. These two teams met 2 weeks ago with HOU losing on the last play. HOU had the ball on INDY’s 2yd line in the last minute trailing 26-20. There was a muffed snap by HOU and INDY recovered, game over. This time INDY @HOME should be in a comfortable position at the end of the game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: INDY-7 5 STARS
NE Patriots (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-5), (10-3) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (6-1) ATS NE+2 ½
LW, MIA tried to play toe-to-toe @HOME with KC. I liked MIA+7 ½ because I thought MIA would keep it close and KC hasn’t been beating teams like gangbusters as they did earlier in the season. KC did jump out to a 30-10 lead in the 3rd qtr and they coasted from there. But that gave MIA a chance at possibly battling back and seeing just what MIA was made of. In this game, the MIA DEF forced 3INTS by KC QB Pat Mahomes and MIA had other opportunities where they didn’t convert into points but, MIA is just learning how to win after so many losing seasons. LW, NE didn’t really put up a fight on TNF @LAR. LAR should have scored more points in the 24-3 loss. NE QB Cam Newton was replaced in the game by Jarrett Stidham but has been assured that Cam will start this week @MIA. NE did have a nice drive in the 2nd qtr going which should have made the score LAR 10-7 but, Cam threw an INT that was returned for a PICK6 by LAR CB Kenny Young which made the score LAR 17-0. This changed the game dramatically for NE and they have not been a catchup sort of team this season. Also, NE hasn’t done too much right this season and games that may have looked like pushovers in the past, have become losses this season. L13 MIA(H) vs NE, MIA 6-7 SU & 7-6 ATS. L17 MIA vs NE, HOME 14-3 ATS. MIA 25-40 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 32-43 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 24-51 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 9-4 ATS @HOME w/div revenge. MIA 5-1 ATS as div HF w/revenge. MIA 7-0-2 ATS as div HF 5<pts. NE 23-12 ATS as DOG in DEC. NE 34-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 37-23 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 25-13-2 ATS L40 as a ROAD DOG. NE 11-1 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 15-1 AT off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. In the off season, MIA will need to add some parts to their DEF and OFF to take this team to the next level but, they have made great strides this season. For now they should be happy with the turnaround but they cannot relax as they still need to keep building and winning. After NE, MIA plays @LV & @BUFF which will be tough games against teams looking for playoff positioning. MIA cannot relax vs NE. MIA HC Brian Flores was an assistant coach with NE so there’s always that student vs pupil thing going on. In wk 1 these two teams met @NE and NE won 21-11. MIA was not ready and as the season wore on, MIA got stronger and NE got weaker. NE definitely needs to regroup after this season. Cam certainly looks like his passing skills have deteriorated to the point that he runs first, throws second. NE needs to look for a QB that can lead this team back to greatness. NE needs to some steady receivers. The key for MIA in this game is stopping the run and making Cam throw. MIA is back of the pack when it comes to defending against the run, so they need to shore that up this week. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-2 ½ 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (2-5) ATS CHI+3
LW, MINN K Dan Bailey helped beat MINN @TB 26-14. He missed 3fgs & 1extra point which took 10points off the board for MINN. But it goes way better than that. From the missed fgs, TB scored 17pts because they had good field positions instead of getting the ball after a kickoff. This deflated the OFF because they did what they were supposed to do and the Kicker did not. I liked MINN+6 ½ because I felt they would give TB a run, keep it close and even possibly win but you can’t predict that a kicker is going to go 0-3. LW, CHI was @HOME vs HOU. I originally liked CHI but I changed my pick to HOU because on paper HOU is better and I thought they would step up. Well after CHI HC Matt Nagy read the riot act to the team after the last game, I should have taken that as a big sign that the game would go CHI’s way. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky had a nice game going 24/33 for 267yds 3tds, 0INTs and 0fumbles. CHI also rushed for 169 yds and 1td and the team overall had 0turnovers. This game was CHI 30-7 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. The HOU DEF didn’t help either as they couldn’t stop anything that CHI was throwing at them. Final score, CHI 36-7. Let’s see how CHI does this week. L13 MINN(H) vs CHI, MINN 9-4 SU & 7-6 ATS. L27 MINN vs CHI, HOME 16-10 ATS 1NL. MINN 1-5 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2020. MINN 29-38-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 24-27-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 32-30-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 12-2 ATS @HOME off SU loss. CHI 11-4 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CHI 20-40 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 28-46 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 28-33 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 7-5 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. CHI 2-6 ATS as a div ROAD DOG <6pts. MINN should be pissed off and ready for this game because they blew a golden opportunity to win a game and stay in the playoff hunt. CHI is just terrible and Trubisky had a good game vs a terrible team. He doesn’t play well consistently and the MINN DEF knows Trubisky well. MINN is on a bounceback and CHI thinks they can take on the world. Lay the points here as CHI comes back down to Earth. MINN RB Dalvin Cook didn’t have a good game vs CHI when these two teams met in wk 10 @CHI, so I’m sure he is looking to rectify the situation this week. Look for him to go off and take pressure off of Cousins to make some easy passes. CHI will not have an easy time this week as they did last week.
THE PICK: MINN-3 3 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (9-4), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Washington Football Team (6-7), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS WASH+5 ½
WASH DE Chase Young has become a one man wrecking crew. He had 2 fumbles, a sack and one of those fumbles was returned for a td. Not to mention pressuring the SF QB all day. This took a lot of pressure off of the WASH OFF who lost QB Alex Smith to a tightened muscle in his surgically repaired leg. He left the game and Dwayne Haskins played the rest of the game. It was sloppy game by both teams but, WASH came out of it as the winner. The DEF for WASH has improved quite steadily throughout this season. WASH #4 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #9 RUSH DEF. Right now the status for Smith is questionable. LW, SEA dismantled NYJ @SEA 40-3. On top of it, NYJ missed 3fgs. The score was so out of whack that SEA QB Geno Smith came into the game in the 3rd qtr with the score SEA up 37-3. SEA probably could have scored more. Yeah, I don’t see SEA having their way with WASH like they did vs NYJ. L5 WASH vs SEA, WASH 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. WASH 16-19 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. WASH 6-10 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH 23-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 39-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 9-7 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 7-2 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 off SU win vs .500> opp off SU win. WASH 10-1 ATS in gms 13-16 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. WASH 6-0 ATS as a HOME DOG <6pts vs .600>opp. SEA 22-19-1 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 35-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 35-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 3-6 ATS L9 before LAR. SEA 9-3 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm vs conf opp. SEA 11-5 ATS after scoring 35>pts. This week, SEA will not be playing a pushover DEF. Both of these teams have something to play for. WASH could end up at 9-7 as their next two games after SEA are vs CAR & @PHILLY. They are both winnable games. SEA has vs LAR & @SF as their last two games. SEA is playing for playoff position as WASH is playing to stay ahead of NYG to get the only likely playoff spot coming out of the NFC EAST. WASH has been playing well after starting the season pretty bad. This should be a good game with it going down to the wire. It could be decided by a fg. I don’t see SEA blowing out WASH and turnovers will loom large. Who will contain WASH DE Chase Young? If Alex Smith is there for WASH this will be a very good game. If Haskins is there for WASH, he better play better because S Jamal Adams will be waiting. WASH has a shot at an upset here if they don’t turn the ball over.
THE PICK: WASH+5 ½ 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (1-12), (6-7) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (8-5), (7-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS JAGS+13
LW, JAGS came up lame @HOME vs TENN, 31-10. JAGS were 4-1 ATS in their L5 so I figured that they would at least keep it within spread range. But TENN RB Derrick Henry had other ideas as he rushed 26x for 215yds and 2tds. Also, TENN QB Ryan Tannehill passed 19/24 for 212 yds 2tds & 0INTs. The DEF for the JAGS couldn’t keep up. JAGS QB Mike Glennon started the game but showed he’s not suited for the NFL anymore and Gardner Minshew relieved Mike in the 3rd qtr but couldn’t mount any kind of comeback when the score was already TENN 31-3. JAGS are done. LW, on MNF, I said in my analysis that BALT would win by a fg, yes, you can look it up. Even when BALT was up 34-20, CLEVE didn’t give up. This game went down to the wire and BALT kicked a fg to lead 45-42. An unsuccessful multi lateral play at the end by CLEVE resulted in a safety for BALT and a final score of BALT 47-42. The star of this game was definitely BALT Lamar Jackson who rushed 9x for 124 yds and 2tds while throwing 1td. This was a shootout but the BALT DEF didn’t make stops in the 4th qtr when it needed them. Fortunately, JAGS don’t have the firepower to go toe to toe with BALT. L7 JAGS vs BALT, JAGS 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. BALT 4-7-1 ATS in BB HG’s. BALT 39-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 38-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 3-6 ATS after MNF. BALT 10-4-1 ATS after CLEVE. BALT 6-11 L17 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 3-11 ATS as a HOME FAV >10pts vs .400<opp. BALT 10-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. JAGS 33-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 25-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 12-3 ATS L15 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 21-12-2 ATS L35 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 9-9 ATS L18 as a DOG >10pts. JAGS 8-4 ATS L12 after TENN. JAGS 1-12 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. BALT WRs Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin & James Proche have been added to the COVID list and will be out for this game. Even so, JAGS DEF is terrible and I don’t see them even being competitive in this game or their next two games vs CHI & @INDY. JAGS #32 TOT DEF w/ #28 PASS DEF & #30 RUSH DEF. BALT needs to get their DEF in sync and not let teams come back on them like they did vs CLEVE. This week, they won’t have to worry because JAGS QB Minshew is more of a gun slinger and risk taker than most and he will make mistakes. Look for BALT to convert on any turnover made by JAGS. This game should be a rout. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BALT-13 3 STARS
Sunday December 20th, 2020 4:00pm
NY Jets (0-13), (4-9) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ LA Rams (9-4), (8-4-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS NYJ+17 ½
LW, NYJ lost 40-3 @SEA. On top of that they missed 3fgs. It got so bad for NYJ we saw an appearance by SEA QB Geno Smith in the 3rd qtr when the score was already SEA 37-3. NYJ HC Adam Gase is definitely gone soon and so may be QB Sam Darnold who can’t do anything right. NYJ need to clean house from top to bottom. The caching staff needs a thorough scrubbing as well. That all being said they face @LAR. LAR #1 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF & #3 RUSH DEF. How much havoc will LAR DT Aaron Donald create on the NYJ OFF this week? LW on TNF, LARS was @HOME vs NE. A crucial moment in the game with LAR up 10-0 and NE driving. LAR CB Kenny Young intercepted a NE QB Cam Netwon pass and took it 79yds for a td to make the score 17-0. That is a big difference than 10-7. Also, LAR RB Cam Akers had a nice game vs NE, 29 carries for 171 yards. Maybe he can top that vs NYJ. LAR 8-6 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAR 24-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 34-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 6-2 ATS w/rest off SU win. LAR 4-2 ATS w/rest off ATS win. LAR 7-0 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs .250<non-div opp. LAR 14-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win vs opp off DD SU loss. LAR 13-3 ATS vs non-div opp off 3+losses. (last by DD) LAR 7-0 ATS as a non div HOME FAV >3pts vs .250<opp. LAR 8-0 ATS vs .333<opp. NYJ 6-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. NYJ 36-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 43-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 20-21-1 ATS L42 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 16-4 ATS as a DOG >1pt after scoring <7pts. NYJ 7-4 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 1-12 ATS AWAY vs non-conf opp off SU win. NYJ 2-11-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. NYJ 0-9 ATS as a non conf ROAD DOG vs opp off SU win. NYJ 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs opp off SUATS win. NYJ 1-7 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. The DEF for LAR will do their part to crush any thought that the NYJ have on winning or making this game competitive. The LAR OFF needs to get in sync so that they can execute and score tds. LAR has two tough games after this one. They are @SEA & vs ARZ. Neither one of those games will be easy and all are fighting for playoff positions. LAR needs to keep winning to get a higher seed as they have the edge right now on SEA. But that could change with a loss. A BIG WIN vs NYJ and a win next week vs SEA would secure their position in the playoffs and they could rest a little easy in the last game vs ARZ. But they need to get it done. On paper, NYJ have no shot in this game after looking lame @SEA. SEA has a lot worse DEF and NYJ couldn’t get into the endzone. Even with the 3fgs, the game still would have been a blowout. LAR have to take that attitude that they will score at will vs NYJ. LAR can’t let NYJ think that they have a shot at an upset victory. Lay the points here as LAR should early and often and it should be over by halftime. I said should.
THE PICK: LAR-17 ½ 3 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1), (4-9) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6), (7-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS PHILLY+6 ½
LW, NO was taken to task by PHILLY @PHILLY 24-21. In the 2nd qtr, PHILLY built a 17-0 lead and NO had to turn their game plan into comeback mode. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts used his arm and his legs to shock NO. Combined with RB Miles Sanders and others, PHILLY rushed for 246 yds and 2tds. Hurts was also able to spread the ball around to eight different receivers which kept the NO DEF on its toes. However, the PHILLY DEF slacked in the 2nd half but were able to force NO QB Taysom Hill into 1INT & 1 lost fumble which resulted in 10 PHILLY pts. NO did make a game of this in the 2nd half but during the game NO also missed 2fgs that may have altered the outcome of this game, had they been made. Hurts had a costly fumble late in the game that NO turned into 7pts, so, you never know. Hurts will get better as he gets more experience but he needs to hold onto the ball. LW, ARZ beat up NYG @NYG, 26-7. The score could have been a lot worse for NYG but ARZ didn’t take advantage of situations that would have given them more points. I thought there was some suspect play calling at certain times that still gave NYG hope when they had the ball. The ARZ DEF did make a mockery of the NYG O-LINE with 8 sacks of NYG QBs. Plus, they stopped the all of a sudden potent NYG RB Wayne Gallman from wrecking havoc against the ARZ DEF. The ARZ DEF was able to create three fumbles that gave ARZ extra chances at scoring which they did convert into 7pts. I knew ARZ would bounce back after they took a beating vs LAR. L8 PHILLY vs ARZ, ARZ 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. PHILLY 5-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. PHILLY 33-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 26-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 6-14 ATS L21 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 3-6 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. ARZ 9-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. ARZ 21-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 39-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 4-16 ATS after allowing 10<pts. ARZ 1-14 AT as a FAV after allowing 10<pts. ARZ 17-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 10-1 ATS @HOME off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ 0-7 ATS in gms 13-16 off DD SU win vs opp off HOME gm. ARZ 12-1 ATS @HOME vs non-div gm vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 0-5 ATS off DD ATS win vs .700< non div opp. This is a battle of two former Oklahoma QBs playing for bragging rights. However, ARZ is still playing for a playoff spot, while Hurts is playing to supplant Carson Wentz as the PHILLY QB of the future. PHILLY can play spoiler in this one and in wk 17 vs WASH. So there is something for PHILLY to keep playing tough. This is going to be a slugfest and a shootout. Turnovers will loom very large in this game. I don’t see either team blowing out each other and this game could go down to the wire. I see this game coming down to a fg by either team at the buzzer. I like PHILLY getting the points they are getting because all of a sudden they have found new life with Jalen Hurts and they are now exciting to watch. The PHILLY team seemed to be stagnated with Wentz at the helm. This should be a very good game.
THE PICK: PHILLY+6 ½ 5 STARS
KC Chiefs (12-1), (6-7) ATS, (7-0) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ NO Saints (10-3), (7-6) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS NO+3
LW, NO got their hands handed to them @PHILLY but, they actually could have done a few things a little differently down the stretch and won the game. It was PHILLY leading 17-0 at halftime and NO scored 14 points in the 3rd qtr to make it 17-14 but, NO couldn’t stop PHILLY from getting that td in the 4th qtr. However, NO missed 2fgs where one of them was turned into a td by PHILLY in the 1st half. NO also had a fumble which was turned into a td. In essence NO beat themselves. NO QB Taysom Hills 2 turnovers were turned into 10 PHILLY pts. Final score PHILLY 24-21. LW, KC was @MIA and MIA jumped out to a 10-0 lead. No worries, KC scored 30 straight points to go into the 4th qtr, 30-10. MIA tried their best comeback only to come up short with KC winning 33-27. However, I liked MIA +7 ½ because I felt MIA would keep it close and even had the chance to beat KC. I was only right on one part. KC QB Pat Mahomes had 3INTS that were turned into 10 MIA pts with 1 missed fg. MIA also gave up a punt return for a td that was a factor and MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was sacked in the endzone for a safety. You have a MIA team that made mistakes and KC took advantage of them. MIA is not used to winning yet, KC is. This game will be a good warm up game for KC as they enter the playoffs. After this game, they play ATL & LAC @HOME which should be easy. Then they will be ready for their run. KC 11-3 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 21-14 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. KC 39-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 33-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 8-2 ATS vs .700>opp. KC 2-7 ATS AWAY vs .700> non div opp. KC 15-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. NO 6-2 ATS L8 as a HOME DOG. NO 7-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NO 26-40 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 26-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. NO 8-1 ATS in gms 13-16 off SU non-div loss vs opp off BB SU wins. Both of these teams need to keep winning to keep their playoff positioning. NO is in a battle with GB for the top seed and KC is in a battle with PITT for the top seed. KC has lost the last five games ATS which means that whoever they are playing didn’t lose by much. This game is the smallest spread that KC is laying all season. If Brees were there for NO I would be taking NO in this game. But, you have Taysom Hill who is going through these games for the 1st time and has not gotten the chance to be consistent and work out his kinks. Mahomes is already the master and is not afraid of good teams. Right now they can’t be stopped and I think they will win and cover this spread. Lay the points.
THE PICK: KC-3 5 STARS
Sunday December 20th, 2020 8:20pm
Cleveland Browns (9-4), (5-6-2) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ NY Giants (5-8), (8-5) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS NYG+3 ½
In my analysis for the MNF game LW, I said that BALT would win by a fg. BALT did win in a shootout. The extra 2pts was scored when CLEVE did a big lateral play with :02 at the end of the game to try to get down the field. Instead they ended up backwards and out of their own endzone. But for the most part it was a shootout and CLEVE didn’t fold after being down 34-20 in the 4th qtr. CLEVE did give up 238 yads rushing to BALT albeit 124yds of that was to BALT QB Lamar Jackson on 9 carries & 2TDs. CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield did have 1INT that did turn into a BALT td which made the score BALT 34-20. But CLEVE never gave up and it took a fg drive by BALT in the last minute of the game to pull out the win. Mayfield wasn’t sacked at all vs BALT while Lamar Jackson was sacked 4x. LW, NYG QB Daniel Jones came back after hurting his hamstring a couple of week ago @CINNCY and he looked rusty. He fumbled the ball 3x, losing it 1x. He didn’t run the ball either. The ARZ DEF didn’t let the NYG run and NYG RB Wayne Gallman couldn’t get going and rushed for only 57 yds. ARZ was up 20-0 in the 3rd qtr and NYG were playing catchup. ARZ couldn’t get out of their own way either and should have scored more points in this game. ARZ had opportunities but did not take advantage of them. NYG were luck that this game was still in reach at halftime with ARZ only leading 13-0. L4 NYG vs CLEVE, NYG 3-1 SUATS. CLEVE 2-6-1 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. CLEVE 7-13-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CLEVE 24-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEVE 6-13-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEVE 9-17-1 ATS L27 vs NFC. CLEVE 6-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU loss. CLEVE 1-11-2 ATS off SU DIV loss. CLEVE 1-9 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. CLEVE 2-2 ATS AWAY on SNF. CLEVE 0-7 ATS L7 after BALT. NYG 11-20 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. NYG 6-4 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NYG 44-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 35-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 11-10 ATS @HOME on SNF. NYG 17-13 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NYG 9-3 ATS vs .333> non-conf opp. NYG 2-4 ATS L6 after scoring 10<pts. I don’t think NYG will be able to stop the 1-2 RB punch of Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt. They combined to rush for 115 yds and 3tds vs BALT. BALT seemed gassed having to handle these two on consecutive carries. How will NYG hold up? CLEVE is battling for playoff position and needs to keep winning. NYG have really nothing to play for as it seems that only one team will make the playoffs out of the NFC EAST. CLEVE is on a bounceback here and played well vs BALT. They should be motivated to win this game and their next game, (@NYJ) before playing @HOME vs PITT. NYG QB Daniel Jones is not as nimble as BALT QB Lamar Jackson and if his hamstring is not 100% he will not run and just be a pocket QB. This will certainly give an advantage to CLEVE. NYG QB Colt McCoy who led the win @SEA could play and he has a fresh body and looking to stick around. Pressure by CLEVE DEs Myles Garrett & Olivier Vernon will be too much for NYG. Look for some turnovers by NYG. CLEVE should win this game by at least 10 points. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CLEVE-3 ½ 5 STARS
Monday December 21st, 2020 8:15pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2), (9-4) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1), (6-5-2) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-1-2) ATS CINNCY+12 ½
PITT started the season 11-0 and has lost the last two in horrific fashion to go 11-2. PITT lost @HOME to WASH 23-17 after leading 14-0. Then LW, on SNF, they were outplayed @BUFF, 26-15. PITT needs to find a running game fast because any good DEF will just sit back and cover the receivers knowing that PITT is going to throw the ball. PITT is in the playoffs but they need to keep winning or their position will start to slide. LW, CINNCY @HOME was beat up bad by DAL 30-7. This was a lock because DAL QB Andy Dalton was making a return to CINNCY after being cut by CINNCY after last season. Dalton went 16/23, 185 yds, 2tds, 0INTS & 0 fumbles. DAL even rushed for 101 yds. DAL scored their first 17pts from three straight fumbles by CINNCY. Were they helping Dalton in his return? In the 2nd half DAL didn’t do much but got some easy gifts from CINNCY on field position which made scoring a td a snap. CINNCY did rush for 101 yds but they were playing catchup from after their opening fumble possession. CINNCY needs to get some quality players in the off-season to build around QB Joe Burrow. But for right now, the season couldn’t end sooner. Plus, they face a pissed off PITT team that is looking to get back to their winning ways. PITT 18-25 ATS L43 as a ROAD FAV. L13 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS. L20 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 15-4-1 ATS. L20 PITT vs CINNCY, FAV 11-8-1 ATS. L17 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 14-3 SU & 11-6 ATS. PITT 9-6 ATS 1 NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. PITT 28-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 47-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 28-25 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 5-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. PITT 7-8 ATS on MNF. PITT 1-12 ATS as a FAV >10pts. PITT 15-4 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 8-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 7-1 ATS on MNF off DD SU loss. CINNCY 12-9-2 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 8-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CINNCY 45-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 42-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 24-24-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 18-7 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 1-7 ATS as a div HOME DOG >4pts vs opp off SU loss. CINNCY 2-8 ATS as a DIV HOME DOG >4pts. CINNCY 3-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. CINNCY 1-5 ATS on MNF vs .>500 opp off SU loss. This has blowout written all over it because PITT is desperate to get back to their winning ways. They still have an outside shot at the #1 seed if KC falters and PITT keeps winning. These two teams met in wk 10 @PITT with PITT winning 36-10. Usually the second meeting between divisional rivals is a closer match if the 1st one was a blowout but PITT is in desperational mode to make some changes and get back to winning after starting 11-0. The running game needs to get going and who better to do that against then CINNCY. CINNCY #28 RUSH DEF. This is a big test for PITT to see if they can recover their composure. Lay the points here as PITT rolls over CINNCY and gets back to their winning ways.
THE PICK: PITT-12 ½ 5 STARS