2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 16
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Friday December 25th, 2020 4:30pm
Minnesota Vikings (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NO Saints (10-4), (7-6-1) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (3-3-1) ATS MINN+7
LW, MINN got run over @HOME by CHI, 33-27. CHI was up 20-7 and MINN tried playing catchup, to no avail. The DEF for MINN was the problem as they gave up 199 yds rushing & 2td. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky completed 15 of 21 passes for 202 yds with 1td & 1INT. The MINN DEF only made 2stops the whole game and CHI came away with either a fg or td each time. MINN couldn’t keep up. LW, NO got run over @HOME by KC 32-29. KC toyed with NO as KC took a lead of 14-0 in the 2nd qtr. But NO stormed back with a td, a safety and another td to make the score NO 15-14 in the 3rd qtr. Then KC took command and a 29-15 lead and NO had to play catchup. NO couldn’t get there but lost by 3pts. KC rushed for 179yds on 41 carries to keep the NO DEF guessing. I liked KC-3 and they could have covered but the KC DEF played prevent at the end and NO scored a back door PUSH. Take away that KC safety at the end of the 1st half and there is your cover. This game means nothing to MINN and everything to NO. L8 MINN VS NO, MINN 4-4 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. NO 9-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NO 26-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 35-43 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 36-33-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 14-6 ATS L20 vs NFC NORTH. NO 1-10 ATS as a FAV w/revenge off BB SUATS losses. NO 6-9 ATS before CAR. NO 2-6 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s vs non-div opps. NO 1-8 ATS in gms 13-16 off BB SU losses vs opp off div gm. NO 9-0 ATS as a non-div FAV <16pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. NO 9-0 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs non-div conf opp. MINN 6-8 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. MINN 31-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 34-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MINN 22-17-2 ATS L41 in DEC. MINN 5-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU losses. MINN 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts off BB SU losses. MINN 9-5 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 20-6-1 ATS in non-div gms off an SU loss. MINN 8-2 ATS L10 after CHI. This could be Drew Brees last game as the QB for NO in the SuperDome. Plus, MINN knocked NO out of the playoffs last year. If you don’t think those are two motivating factors for NO to romp MINN, you haven’t been paying attention. Also, an added piece of motivation for NO is that they are playing for playoff position and are coming off two losses which is a double bounceback. NO needs a win here and a win next week @CAR just to secure the #2 seed. NO HC Sean Payton is probably going over these motivating factors all week to make sure that the team is ready to play. Last season, MINN dominated the playoff game @NO and knocked NO from any thoughts of reaching the SuperBowl after they were the #1 seed for a 2nd season in a row. MINN has nothing to play for except maybe a .500 record. In the last two weeks when they could have actually been in the playoff conversation, they lost @TB and then @HOME to CHI. The DEF for MINN has to be addressed in the off-season and considering the lack of qualified HCs, Mike Zimmer should be back. Cousins will be back but at a lower price tag so that MINN can add players. I like a NO blowout here as MINN has absolutely nothing to play for and NO has everything to play for. Lay the points and enjoy the show.
THE PICK: NO-7 5 STARS
Saturday December 26th, 2020 1:00pm
TB Buccaneers (9-5), (7-6-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Detroit Lions (5-9), (5-9) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS DET+9 ½
LW, TB spotted ATL @ATL a 17-0 and 24-7 leads. But it being ATL, TB was able to come back and win 31-27. The game was TB-5 ½ and it should have been 34-27 but the refs gave TB a 1st down that certainly didn’t look like a first down and TB didn’t have to kick a fg. TB has not really impressed anyone because hey haven’t beaten anyone good since wk 6 vs GB. Since then, their only wins have been @LV, @NYG, @CAR, MINN, & @ATL. Plus, two of those games weren’t covered. TB QB Tom Brady may be looking good but he has a lot of help and the TB DEF has been inconsistent. LW, DET @TENN, DET got walloped by TENN 46-25. This game was close for a while when it was TENN 24-18 but TENN & RB Derrick Henry turned on the juice and the game was over. DET is a team that has to seriously go through an evaluation and new coaching staff to try to put this team headed in the right direction. DET QB Matthew Stafford may not even be in a DET uniform in 2021. L9 DET vs TB, DET 5-4 SU & 5-3 ATS 1NL. DET 11-20-1 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. DET 5-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. DET 30-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 42-41-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 11-8 ATS off non-conf gm. DET 2-12 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. TB 6-7 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. TB 3-3 ATS as a RAOD FAV in 2020. TB 7-12-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. TB 24-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 24-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 23-19-2 ATS L44 AWAY vs non-div. TB 1-13 ATS in gms 13-16 vs opp allowed 35>pts. TB 1-11 ATS off div RG vs .700<conf opp. These are two teams going in opposite directions for now. TB needs to keep winning to secure a better playoff spot and DET is playing out the string and trying not to get hurt. I am confident that TB should win this game but not by the margin that the spread suggests. DET has a lot of fight in them and has some talent on this team. Unless DET turns the ball over recklessly, this game should be on the competitive side. I think DET will manage some kind of back door cover. Take the points here.
THE PICK: DET+9 ½ 5 STARS
Saturday December 26th, 2020 4:30pm
SF 49ers (5-9), (5-9) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (8-6), (8-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS SF+5
LW, ARZ @HOME got away with one. ARZ was leading 33-26 and PHILLY needed a td to tie. But the spread was ARZ-6 ½ and it would have been 33-27 but PHILLY missed an extra point on their last td so the margin was now seven. Lost out by ½ pt. Plus, PHILLY was driving in the last minute but couldn’t get closer after an apparent td was dropped. ARZ had started out this game 16-0 but let PHILLY back into it and the game was actually tied at 26-26. But ARZ put together a drive that ended in a td and that was how it ended, 33-26. LW, DAL scored 24pts off of 4 SF turnovers. Two INTS from SF QB Nick Mullens, 1 fumble from Mullens and a muffed punt from Richie James. Plus, Mullens injured his elbow and will be out the rest of the season CJ Beathard came in during the game and he temporarily stopped the bleeding but DAL won 41-33. This game was tied in the 4th qtr at 24-24 but then DAL took over. SF had a good running game going but when they were losing big in the 4th qtr, out goes the running game. L13 ARZ(H) vs SF, SF 6-7 SU but 8-5 ATS. L23 SF vs ARZ, SF 12-11 SU & 11-12 ATS. SF 10-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 26-42 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 21-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 26-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 8-11 ATS L19 AWAY after allowing 28>pts. SF 4-15 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 4-2 ATS L6 as a div ROAD DOG off SU loss. SF 4-9-1 ATS L14 off SU FAV loss. SF 10-1 ATS off SU ROAD FAV loss. SF 0-4 ATS in 1st of BB div gms. ARZ 5-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. ARZ 33-24 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. ARZ 22-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 40-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 0-10 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME off SUATS win vs opp off SU loss. ARZ 0-8 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ is playing for a playoff spot because right now they are not guaranteed anything. ARZ needs to keep winning. The season for SF has been over for some time and they had a season that was racked with injuries all over the team. These two teams met in wk 1 @SF with ARZ winning 24-20. It might have been last season because a lot has transpired since wk 1. SF would like to play spoiler but with CJ Beathard at QB instead of Mullins they have a chance to keep it close. I like this game close as it will come down to a fg at the end. These are division rivals that don’t care for one another and the games are always tough. SF will like to play spoiler but look out for any turnovers that become gifts that turn into points.
THE PICK: SF+5 3 STARS
Saturday December 26th, 2020 8:15pm
Miami Dolphins (9-5), (11-3) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ LV Raiders (7-7), (7-7) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS LV+3
LW, LV snatched defeat from the hands of victory and they deserved to lose. In OT, LV had 1st & goal at the LAC 4yds line. LV ran three BS plays and settled for a fg. Had they scored the td, the game would have been over. But no, they had to find a way to screw it up. LAC then gets the ball and drives all the way down the field and they get the td, why? Because LV has a DEF that can’t stop anyone unless they are dead from the neck up. LVHC Jon Gruden may think he’s a great coach but, he’s not. After he won the SuperBowl with someone else’s team he had two playoff appearances and lost both times in the 1st round. LAC was setting the tome in this game and LV was playing catchup. The fact that LAC missed 2fgs, one that would have ended the game with a win for LAC says something. LV QB Marcus Mariota filled in very nicely after Derek Carr went down with an injury and it looked like LV was going to pull it out but those suspect calls in OT is what killed a nice game by Mariota. LW, MIA ran all over the NE DEF for 250 yds and 3tds. This was a seesaw battle but, the difference was that MIA was producing tds while NE was getting fgs. L9 MIA vs LV, MIA 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS. MIA 6-7 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 13-2 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RG’s. MIA 25-51 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 23-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 19-22 ATS L41 in DEC. LV 17-23-1 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. LV 26-41-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 30-54-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 7-2 ATS off SU div HOME loss. LV 4-1 ATS L5 @HOME vs AFC EAST. LV 8-3 ATS after LAC. LV 10-6-1 ATS off SU div loss. MIA should be able to run all day over LV. LV managed to shut down the LAC running game for a little while but they couldn’t stop their QB, Justin Herbert from throwing passes all over the place. MIA should use their balanced attack vs LV to keep the LV DEF off balance. Mariota played nicely filling in for Carr and they should go with him if Carr is not 100%. He hasn’t had any wear and tear this season so he should be fresh to go. He may be competition for Carr if Carr continues to struggle. This will be a battle because LV will think that they will be playing spoiler because they have nothing else to play for. MIA is playing for playoff positioning and would like to end the season on a high note. The LV DEF is terrible and MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa should have his way with them. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-3 5 STARS
Sunday December 27th, 2020 1:00pm
Atlanta Falcons (4-10), (6-8) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ KC Chiefs (13-1), (6-7-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-3) ATS ATL+10 ½
LW, ATL had a 17-0 lead @HOME vs TB. It was then ATL 24-7 and guess what? ATL lost 31-27. But it should have been worse because it didn’t look like TB got the 1st down and would have had to kick a fg. The officials were generous and said TB got the 1st down, so no fg and no 6pt win which would have covered. But ATL is still terrible and a good QB can dismantle the ATL DEF easily. ATL has lost too many games after having leads this season and that is why HC Dan Quinn was fired. Interim HC Raheem Morris is probably not the long term answer and they need fresh blood with someone who has a history of winning. LW, KC won @NO, 32-29. But that is not the story. The story is that they have not covered a game ATS since wk 8 vs the NYJ. During that streak, KC is 0-5-1 ATS. KC gave up a safety in this game which would have made the difference five pts. The spread in this game was KC-3. Every point in every game has significance. Whether it means a lead or a comeback later, even a missed extra point has consequences. ATL 9-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. ATL 36-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 32-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 12-4 ATS as a DOG 8>pts. ATL 6-8 ATS l14 before TB. ATL 13-3 ATS in gms 13-16 AWAY vs non-div opps. KC 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. KC 36-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 39-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 7-3 ATS L10 before LAC. KC 14-8 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. KC 3-6 ATS as a DD FAV vs .400<opp. KC has nothing to prove but ATL has players fighting for jobs and they certainly will be evaluated after the season. The coaching staff for ATL should be thoroughly evaluated as well. KC will win this game by about a td as ATL will find a way to get a back door cover. ATL is great at getting a DOG cover but not at actually winning the game. KC will win the game unless they do not take ATL seriously like LAR took NYJ last week. KC needs another win to solidify the #1 seed, so they need this game as a win so that they can sort of relax in wk 17. I like ATL with the points but they will not win unless KC self destructs.
THE PICK: ATL+10 ½ 5 STARS
Cleveland Browns (10-4), (6-6-2) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ NY Jets (1-13), (5-9) ATS, (0-7) HOME, (3-4) ATS NYJ+9 ½
LW, NYJ @ LAR won but they lost too. First, no one thought that NYJ would beat LAR the way they did. If this was the only game you saw and knew nothing else, you would have thought that NYJ were a team that could go deep into the playoffs and that LAR was under .500. Second, by winning the game 23-20 and getting their 1st win of 2020, NYJ fall to 2nd place in the draft order for 2021 behind JAGS. JAGS get the 1st pick based on strength of schedule if JAGS and NYJ have identical records at the end of the season. NYJ played a good game vs LAR and NYJ QB Sam Darnold didn’t turn the ball over. Darnold was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers and was only sacked 2x by the LAR DEF. On SNF, CLEVE won @NYG, 20-6. It wasn’t much of a game as the NYG have sort of packed it in and CLEVE needs to just keep winning to secure a high playoff position. The spread was only CLEVE-3 ½ but it was an easy pick because NYG QB Colt McCoy who was in for the injured Daniel Jones had a so-so game with 0tds, 0INTs & 0 fumbles. But it was the CLEVE OFF that ran the ball 30x and completed 27 passes that took a lot of time off the clock and limited the NYG chances on OFF. NYG OFF looked out of sync and couldn’t really find any rhythm. L10 CLEVE vs NYJ, CLEVE 4-6 SU & 4-4-2 ATS. CLEVE 2-7-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. CLEVE 7-13-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CLEVE 7-13-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEVE 25-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEVE 12-7 ATS off non-conf ROAD GM. CLEVE 4-13 ATS off DD SU win. NYJ 23-19-1 ATS L43 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 44-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 25-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ have nothing to play for except pride. Right now they have the 2nd pick in the 2021 draft which still gives them leverage. CLEVE has the chance to win the AFC NORTH as PITT slides. NYJ have played tough at HOME and should feel confident about keeping this game close. The spread is just way to big to ignore. I like CLEVE winning this game but not by what the spread suggests. The O-LINE for the NYJ need to give Darnold time and open up some running lanes. If the NYJ get fumbleidous and they give easy chances to CLEVE it could turn into a rout. But, I don’t see that happening. This will be a close game with CLEVE pulling it out in the 4th qtr. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½ 5 STARS
Indianapolis Colts (10-4), (8-5-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS INDY+2 ½
Anyone who watched the MNF game of PITT @CINNCY would have thought that CINNCY was going to the playoffs and PITT was under <.500. It was terrible to watch as CINNCY who is terrible dismantled a PITT DEF that didn’t show up. This is what I mean about this season as teams losing who should win and vice versa. PITT is in a slide and I don’t think they can recover. They have absolutely no running game and against CINNCY who is terrible, PITT rushed for 86 yds in catchup mode. CINNCY was leading 17-0 on three PITT turnovers. CINNCY missed a fg which would probably have made the score CINNCY 30-17. CINNCY ran all day on the PITT DEF for 152 yds & 2tds on 41 carries. LW, INDY almost had a chance to lose the game but they knocked the ball out of HOU WR Keke Coutee at the INDY 1yd line and recovered the ball in the endzone. Gamer over, INDY 27-20. With the OFF that INDY has, they should have scored more and with their DEF, given up less. INDY ran the ball for 126 yds with their RBs Jonathan Taylor & Nyheim Hines but they should see me action vs PITT. If they see more carries and are successful, INDY QB Philip Rivers will not feel pressured into making throws that turn into INTS. PITT has been known to drop a lot of passes this season which may be good for INDY and help them win this game. INDY did get lucky last week but they know that PITT is not dead yet. L8 INDY vs PITT, PITT 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS. INDY 35-36-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 32-28-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 7-3 ATS L10 after HOU. INDY 8-8 ATS L16 AWAY vs AFC NORTH. INDY 2-8 ATS before JAGS. INDY 3-7 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG w/revenge. INDY 3-9 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 3-13 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. INDY 1-12 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. INDY 10-1 ATS in gms 130-16 w/revenge vs opp off DD SU loss. INDY 3-17 ATS in gms 13-16 when .500> off SU win vs opp off AWAY gm. INDY 7-0 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. INDY 0-7 ATS vs .400>non-div conf opp off SUATS loss. PITT 41-29-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 47-38 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 3-6-1 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 10-2 ATS vs non-div opps off BB SU wins. PITT 9-1 ATS off DD SU div loss. PITT 5-12 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. INDY should take notice on how CINNCY ran the ball on PITT. INDY likes to run the ball and should have their way with a PITT team who doesn’t look like they will recover. INDY DEF will stuff the run and Big Ben will have to throw 50x. But within those fifty throws there will be dropped passes, INTs and fumbles. INDY hasn’t looked this good since Peyton Manning was the QB. INDY is fighting for playoff position with TENN and they need to keep winning as well. PITT is wounded and going down. I like INDY here unless Rivers has his own meltdown. There may be a little revenge on the minds of INDY. PITT beat INDY last season 26-24 @PITT. Another motivating factor for INDY. This game should be close without either team producing a blowout. This game could come down to the wire.
THE PICK: INDY+2 ½ 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (7-7), (7-7) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-13), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (3-4) ATS JAGS+7 ½
LW, CHI gave everything they had @MINN and won for the 2nd straight game, 33-27. CHI RB David Montgomery had another big game as the MINN DEF faltered and let CHI have their way. MINN DEF couldn’t make stops when they needed them. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky didn’t have a great game but he didn’t cause any damage either. His one INT didn’t turn into any MINN pts. It was a shootout but CHI prevailed. I guess a riot act speech by HC Matt Nagy after the DET loss woke these guys up. CHI is on a two game winning streak. Can they go for three in a row? LW, JAGS were blown out @BALT, 40-14. I had said that this game had the makings of a blowout and it ended up being that. It was BALT 26-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw passes to eight different receivers and JAGS could not stop it. JAGS only consolation on this season would be getting the #1 2021 NFL PICK. This team needs a lot of work but RB James Robinson has been a welcome surprise. Unfortunately, he is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. For the JAGS, it would be best to not play him. JAGS need to add players on OFF & DEF as they have shredded the team for draft picks. L4 JAGS vs CHI, 2-2 SUATS. CHI 10-8 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 0-0 SUATS as a ROAD FAV in 2020. 8-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CHI 21-40 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 26-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CHI 6-4 ATS before GB. CHI 8-5 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. CHI 10-7 ATS L17 non-conf ROAD gms. CHI 7-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3>pts off SU DOG win. CHI 7-3 ATS after MINN. JAGS 33-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 30-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 4-31 SU & 9-26 ATS vs NFC. JAGS 3-13 ATS as a non-conf DOG 3>pts. JAGS 1-12-1 ATS l14 before INDY. JAGS 1-5 ATS after allowing 35> pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 6-4 ATS as a DOG 7>pts in 2020. JAGS have absolutely nothing to play for except getting the 1st pick in the 2021 draft. This means losing this game and losing next week @INDY. QB Gardner Minshew’s days in Jacksonville are numbered because he may serve as Trevor Lawrence’s backup or just might be released. But, that is all speculation. CHI has an outside chance at a playoff spot and they have played very well the last two games. The rushing game has done well the last two games for CHI which has taken a lot of pressure off of Trubisky so that he can relax a little and make passes. JAGS #30 RUSH DEF. CHI has rushed for 199 yds in wk 15 & 169 yds in wk 14 vs HOU. These were both wins by CHI. If CHI can get their running game going and CHI RB David Montgomery can get into a rhythm, Trubisky will have a good day. Lay the points here as CHI fights on and JAGS fall off.
THE PICK:CHI-7 ½ 3 STARS
NY Giants (5-9), (8-6) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5), (8-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS NYG+10
Did anyone really think that NYG would win @HOME vs CLEVE on MNF? I didn’t and they didn’t, losing 20-6. It wasn’t much of a game for NYG because their OFF was stagnated by the CLEVE DEF. NYG QB Colt McCoy didn’t have a bad game going 19/31 221 yds, 0tds & 0INTS but he didn’t get any help from the running game which the CLEVE DEF stopped cold. CLEVE hit NYG with a balance attack that rushed 30x and threw the ball 32x. Different game for NYG than the one they played @SEA just two weeks ago. BALT beat up JAGS 40-14. Not much to say except that BALT did what they were supposed to do, is crush a much inferior opponent and give them no opportunity to hang around and possibly beat you. This game was 26-0 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. However, the spread was BALT-13 so I did keep tabs on the game but BALT took care of that nicely too. This game could have been 43-14 as BALT missed a fg that ended the first half. BALT cannot let up this week either. L4 BALT vs NYG, 2-2 SUATS but HOME 4-0 SUATS. BALT 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. BALT 40-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 39-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 9-13-1 ATS L23 vs NFC. BALT 8-22-1 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 11-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. BALT 12-5 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. BALT 1-8 ATS in gms 13-16 vs <.500 opp playing their last AWAY gm. NYG 44-29 ATS as a DOG in Dec. NYG 37-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 4-5 ATS L9 before DAL. NYG 10-7 ATS L17 before div HM gm. NYG 9-4 ATS vs .333>non-conf opp. NYG 3-11 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. NYG 2-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts. BALT is playing for better playoff positioning as PITT has been faltering. There is a chance for BALT to win the AFC NORTH and get more home games throughout the playoffs but, they just have to keep on winning. BALT should be able to control this game from the very beginning as their OFF is very good in the rushing dept. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs NYG #6 RUSH DEF. This is where the battle will be and QB Lamar Jackson will throw some nice passes in for good measure as the NYG will be caught lead footed. I like BALT winning here by 14pts because they have a legitimate shot at the AFC NORTH title and better positioning. NYG have battled well against some of the good teams but right now BALT SHOULD win this game big. Lay the points.
THE PICK: BALT-10 5 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1), (7-5-2) ATS, (0-6-1) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Houston Texans (4-10), (3-9-2) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS CINNCY+8
On MNF, CINNCY @HOME beat a sliding PITT team. PITT was terrible and CINNCY took advantage of every opportunity that they got. CINNCY was +12 ½ and you had to at least think that PITT would get their act together against a bad CINNCY team. Well, CINNCY got their act together first and beat PITT 27-17. It wasn’t even that close as CINNCY stormed out to a 17-0 lead. CINNCY rushed 41x for 152 yds & 2tds while limiting CINNCY QB Ryan Finley to 13passes and making sure that he had less opportunities for mistakes. LW, HOU was playing tough @INDY and going toe-to-toe with them. But, when you are bad, you make mistakes. With the score INDY 27-20, very late in the 4th qtr and HOU driving, HOU WR Keke Coutee caught a pass within INDY’s 5yard line. He was trying to get to the endzone but an INDY defender popped the ball out and INDY recovered in the endzone for a touchback, game over. I thought INDY would definitely beat HOU by more than seven points and this game ended up being a PUSH, INDY-7. HOU is fundamentally bad and needs to get coaching in that will correct most of their mistakes. L8 CINNCY vs HOU, HOU 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS. CINNCY 25-3`1-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 43-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 7-8 ATS L15 after PITT. CINNCY 8-3 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 9-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SU losses. HOU 6-7-1 ATS in 1st of BBHG’s. HOU 22-17 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 12-17-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 5-12-2 ATS L19 before TENN. HOU 12-10 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 7-5 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 7-0 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME off SU loss 7<pts. Neither one of these teams is playing for anything. CINNCY needs to get better players and HOU needs better coaching with maybe a player here and there. HOU is not so good that they should be this big of a FAV. In fact, CINNCY has a good shot at winning this game outright because HOU is so bad vs the run. HOU #31 RUSH DEF. CINNCY could use the same game plan that they did vs PITT and come out ahead. That was heavy on the run, light on the pass. Take CINNCY & the points here. I would be very surprised if HOU wins in a romp.
THE PICK: CINNCY+8 5 STARS
Sunday December 27th, 2020 4:00pm
Carolina Panthers (4-10), (8-6) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Washington Football Team (6-8), (9-5) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (4-3) ATS CAR+2 ½
On Saturday night football, CAR was @GB and they were losing 21-3. But CAR made some adjustments and made a game of it but lost 24-16. The DEF of CAR came on strong and shut down GB QB Aaron Rodgers & CO and GB only scored 3pts the rest of the way. Honestly I thought GB would blow them out being -8 ½ and that was another game that was lost by ½ pt. The week before CAR took a beating @HOME vs DEN but GB with their suspect play calling let CAR creep back into this game. As a whole CAR has had a very down season and 1st yr HC Matt Rhule is learning the ropes of the NFL. QB Teddy Bridgewater has done well considering what the team has had to work with. RB Chrstian McCaffrey has been off & on injured and will again not be available. The DEF has 5INTS and CB Donte Jackson has three of them. LW, WASH was down @HOME to SEA 20-3 and it looked like it was going to be a blowout. I liked WASH+5 ½ because their DEF has gotten tremendously better over the course of the season and I felt that they would give SEA trouble. If Alex Smith had been the QB for this game, there might have been an upset. Dwayne Haskins was in for the still injured Smith and he was able to lead WASH on 2td drives in the 4th qtr to make the score 20-15. But on WASH’s next drive they were not able to get into the endzone and that was the final score but WASH did get the back door cover by ½ pt. Haskins had 2INTS that were converted by SEA for 7pts. Haskins mechanics are not refined and if you watch him play, his accuracy is way off. I don’t think he will have a long career in the NFL. Because of his mechanics, he is more susceptible to fumbles and INTs. WASH DE Chase Young has had a pretty good rookie season but WASH needs to get him some help because he can’t do it alone. L8 CAR vs WASH, CAR 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. CAR 8-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CAR 30-24 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 36-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 0-5 ATS L5 before NO. WASH 8-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. WASH 24-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 33-28 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 6-9 ATS L15 as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs non-div. WASH 6-4 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. I like CAR in this game because Bridgewater is a smarter QB than Haskins and will make better choices. This is a winnable game for CAR because of Haskins playing at QB. If Smith were the QB for WASH this week, I would pick WASH but, Haskins is usually good for at least 2 turnovers which can be converted into an extra 7pts. CAR is certainly due and would also like to knock WASH out of any playoff picture. WASH is currently fighting for the NFC EAST title and CAR can certainly play spoiler here. Take CAR here as hopefully Bridgewater & CO delivers.
THE PICK: CAR+2 ½ 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (5-9), (7-7) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (5-9), (5-7-2) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS DEN+3
LW, DEN was blasted @HOME vs BUFF 48-19. BUFF came to play and were on a mission. They beat up DEN pretty good. The score was BUFF 21-13 at the half and you maybe thought that DEN+6 ½ had a chance to keep it close. Unfortunately, BUFF ran away with it in the 2nd half and didn’t look back. BUFF came out in the 2nd half with a td drive and then a fumble return for a td and it was 35-13 and the game was over. DEN tried playing catchup but to no avail. LW on TNF LAC was in a dogfight with LV @LV. The game would have ended in regulation had LAC K Michael Badgley not missed 2fgs in regulation. This game went to OT and LV made some suspect play calling that gave LAC life. To make it short, LAC scored a td after LV settled for a fg and LAC won 30-27. LAC QB Justin Herbert looked his usual good self but LV with QB Marcus Mariota seemed to get new life after Derek Carr left early in the game with an injury. LAC was lucky to win because their DEF is terrible. LAC gave up 173 yds rushing to LV with 88yds going to Mariota who saw that he could take advantage of a soft LAC D-LINE. DEN should take note. L13 LAC(H) vs DEN, DEN 8-5 SUATS. L27 LAC vs DEN, ROAD 17-9-1 ATS. L27 LAC vs DEN, FAV 13-13-1 ATS. LAC 34-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 30-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 29-34 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 1-3 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. LAC 3-14-1 ATS L18 before KC. LAC 12-2 ATS in gms 13-16 as a FAV vs <.500 opp off ATS loss. DEN 26-34 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 22-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 32-38 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 15-11 ATS L26 div RG’s. DEN 1-5 ATS L6 before LV. DEN 4-7 ATS as a DIV DOG >1pt off DD SU loss. DEN 10-4 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 7-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. DEN is 4-0 ATS the next week after losing by 14>pts. That is a good sign that HC Vic Fangio has the team bouncing back and putting in the past their big losses. DEN should be able to run on LAC with RBs Melvin Gordon & Phillip Lindsay which will give QB Drew Lock less pressure to make plays. I like DEN here because of the way they bounce back. Both of these teams have deficiencies that need to be addressed in the off-season. LAC QB Justin Herbert looks like the real deal and needs some players around him to get LAC winning. Lock needs to play consistent and not make dumb mistakes. I don’t see this game being a blowout by either team and it could come down to a fg at the end of the game. This should be an exciting game even though it doesn’t mean much for either team. Take DEN & the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+3 3 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1), (4-10) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (1-6) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (5-9), (4-10) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (2-5) ATS DAL+2
LW, PHILLY almost pulled off the impossible. PHILLY was trailing 16-0 @ ARZ when they made a nice comeback and tied the score @26-26. PHILLY missed the extra point that would have made the score PHILLY 27-26. ARZ scored a late td and PHILLY was driving but, a td pass was incomplete and PHILLY couldn’t get in the endzone. The spread was PHILLY +6 ½ and I liked PHILLY in this game but, wouldn’t you know it, another game lost by ½ pt. I liked the way PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts rallied the team back from the deficit and almost won the game. So far, I like what I see from Hurts. Carson Wentz’s days in PHILLY are numbered. PHILLY RB Miles Sanders seems to be back and that will take a lot of pressure off of Hurts to do it all alone. LW, SF @DAL was 24-24 going into the 4th qtr and it was anyone’s game. But, the DEF for SF finally gave out and DAL ran away with it 41-33. SF QB CJ Beathard threw a Hail Mary td with no time left on the clock, so it was really 41-27. But, what helped DAL a lot is the three turnovers by SF QB Nick Mullens before he left the game with an injured shoulder. Those three turnovers (2INTS, 1fumb) were turned into 17 DAL pts. Also, a muffed punt return by Richie James also turned into another DAL 7pts. So DAL was the receptor of four SF turnovers that were turned into 24pts. DAL didn’t have a great game offensively and RB Ezekiel Elliott didn’t play but, when you have so many added opportunities on OFF, you will score points. L13 PHILLY @DAL, PHILLY 7-6 SUATS. L27 PHILLY vs DAL, DOG 14-13 ATS. L27 PHILLY va DAL, ROAD 16-11 ATS. PHILLY 9-18 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. PHILLY 37-36 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 37-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 26-40 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 1-10 ATS in 1st of BB div gms. DAL 14-8-1 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. DAL 3-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. DAL 28-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 27-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 27-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 9-1 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. DAL 7-2 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.600opp. DAL 8-0 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs non-div opps. This game is a battle for a playoff spot in the NFC EAST and only one team will get into the playoffs. These teams met in wk 8 @PHILLY with PHILLY winning 23-9. Is there some payback for DAL in this game? DAL is coming off that big win without RB Ezekiel Elliott and his days may be numbered in DAL after a so-so season. PHILLY is on a bounceback after almost coming back @ARZ, so there is fight in them as well. This will be a battle and I don’t see either team blowing out the other unless turnovers come into play. These two teams know each other well so I expect a dogfight here. This game could come down to the wire.
THE PICK: PHILLY-2 3 STARS
LA Rams (9-5), (8-5-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-2-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS LAR+1 ½
If you tell me you thought that NYJ would beat LAR @LAR LW, you are a liar. LAR didn’t take NYJ seriously and they deserved to lose. They played poorly and their #1 DEF didn’t make plays that stopped NYJ from moving down the field and getting points. NYJ looked confident in their play and LAR didn’t have energy on plays when they needed it most. Hence the final score was NYJ 23-20. If you only saw this game, you would think LAR were <.500. LAR HC Sean McVay made some comments after the game but he should learn that you cannot take any team in the NFL for granted, period. SEA is coming off a game where if WASH had anything going, they would have snatched a victory from SEA on their last drive. But, Dwayne Haskins was the QB for WASH and he stinks. SEA didn’t cover the game after being up 20-3. But then the SEA DEF isn’t that good and they have been known to blow coverages and give teams hope. Hence, SEA won 20-15 but didn’t cover the -5 ½ after leading by 17. I liked WASH because I knew their DEF was tough and they would limit SEA and put pressure on SEA QB Russell Wilson. The WASH DEF didn’t sack Wilson but they did force an INT that turned into a WASH td. L13 SEA(H) vs LAR, SEA 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS. L23 LAR vs SEA, HOME 15-8 ATS. LAR 24-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 29-35 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 28-43 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 25-19-1 ATS L45 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 8-0 ATS L8 AWAY off SU loss. SEA 35-29 ATS as a FAV in DC. SEA 44-24 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 34-26 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 2-9 ATS L11 before SF. SEA 2-5 ATS L7 as a div HOME FAV <10pts. The worst thing for SEA is that LAR is coming off a loss and it happened vs the worst team in the NFL. LAR will be refocused and determined to win moving forward. They will be concentrating on a total domination game vs SEA. The SEA DEF is average to poor and there haven’t been any constants this season as to how the SEA DEF has played. S Jamal Adams has been a savior as he seems to be the only one on DEF making big consistent plays. LAR needs to neutralize him and then they should have easy pickings. This game will be a battle but after the big loss by LAR, they will be pissed to perform better on all aspects of the game. These two teams met in wk 10 @LAR and LAR won 23-16. But, because of the psychological aspect thrust upon LAR in a big bounceback mode, I see LAR winning this game too and completing the season sweep. Both teams have a lot to gain and a lot to lose but LAR should win the game outright. I would be shocked if they didn’t dominate. LAR SHOULD win outright here.
THE PICK: LAR+1 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday December 27th, 2020 8:20pm
Tennessee Titans (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ GB Packers (11-3), (8-6) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (4-3) ATS TENN+3
LW, TENN beat DET 45-26, so what! TENN should beat DET by that much. DET is not that good. You have to question why DET even scored 26 pts. This game was TENN 24-18 in the 3rd qtr before TENN finally exploded. TENN RB Derrick Henry had his usual good game rushing 24x for 147 yds and 1td. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill was near perfect passing 21/27 273 yds, 3tds & 0INTS. The TENN DEF gave up 2tds & 3fgs to DET. You can’t let a team hang around and think that they have a shot at winning. LW, GB was up 21-3 @HOME vs CAR. GB had scored on their first three possessions and then looked lame for most of the game before kicking a fg late in the 4th qtr. GB should have scored at least 40 points. What I saw was suspect play calling after GB was up 21-3. This has been rampant throughout the NFL as so-called qualified HCs make pitiful play calling because they are inept and unprepared. GB should have scored at least two more tds but, instead CAR was able to hang around and make this a contest until the end of the game. Hence the spread was GB-8 ½ and GB won 24-16 thereby losing ATS by ½ pt. But, GB did not look persuasive in their win vs CAR as the CAR DEF stopped the almost unstoppable GB OFF. GB QB Aaron Rodgers was even sacked 5x. Where was the O-LINE? Rodgers passed for his lowest total this season. L4 TENN vs GB, TENN 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. TENN 6-12 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. TENN 27-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 27-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 6-6 ATS L12 on SNF. TENN 7-5 ATS as a DOG on SNF. TENN 5-4 ATS AWAY on SNF. TENN 7-21 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 2-8 ATS AWAY after scoring 35>pts. TENN 5-16 ATS L21 after scoring 35>pts. TENN 6-13 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 7-2-1 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 1-11 ATS in gms 13-16 off BB SU wins vs opp off non-div. GB 11-4-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. GB 38-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 58-35-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 16-19 ATS L35 vs AFC. GB 14-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. GB 9-6 ATS @HOME on SNF. TENN has a way of overpowering a team when they least expect it. TENN is still fighting for playoff position and needs to keep winning. Both of these teams give up yardage vs the run. GB #11 RUSH DEF & TENN #15 RUSH DEF. Look for both of these teams to establish the run early. TENN is a hungry bunch that is coached by HC Mike Vrabel who is not afraid to throw a play in there that teams haven’t seen. This team is exciting to watch especially with RB Henry who can bust one out at any time. He doesn’t run by you, he runs over you. I like TENN here to keep their winning going. This should be a very good game and any turnovers will loom large as neither team turns the ball over very much. TENN +12 turnover differential while GB +5 turnover differential. The DEF for TENN has created 21 turnovers while GB has created 14. I like this game to go down to the wire with a fg to decide it. I would be should shocked if there is a blowout. Rodgers has been here before and nothing surprises him but TENN is hungry and may play very aggressively here.
THE PICK: TENN+3 3 STARS
Monday December 28th, 2020 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (11-3), (7-6-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ NE Patriots (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS NE+7
The OFF woes for NE continue. They didn’t score a td LW @MIA and instead had to settle for 4fgs. MIA did score 3TDs which was the difference in the game. MIA rushed all day over the NE DEF for 250 yds on 42 carries. The NE DEF couldn’t stop them. The difference was tds vs fgs and NE couldn’t produce tds. The frustrations of NE QB Cam Newton continue. This is the first season in many that NE will not be in the playoffs. For the first time in a long time, NE will be very busy evaluating players and talent in the off-season. LW, BUFF took care of DEN, @DEN 48-19. I thought the game would be a little closer as DEN’s QB Drew Lock had a nice game the previous week and seemed to be getting in a groove. The game seemed reachable at halftime, BUFF 21-13. But early in the 3rd qtr after BUFF scored a td, the BUFF DEF had a fumble recovery for a td that broke the game open at BUFF 35-13 and DEN never recovered. BUFF has their first AFC EAST division title in twenty five years and they have certainly improved since last season. BUFF 9-11 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. L13 NE(H) vs BUFF, NE 11-2 SU & 6-6-1 ATS. BUFF 11-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. BUFF 39-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 35-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 26-28 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 6-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BUFF 13-10 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 2-5 ATS as a FAV 3>pts after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 6-1-1 ATS L8 before MIA. BUFF 3-11-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 0-4 AT as a FAV 4>pts after scoring 35>pts. NE 6-0 ATS as HOME DOG. NE 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2020. NE 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NE 23-13 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-23 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 37-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 7-5-2 ATS on MNF. NE 2-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NE 8-1 ATS vs .50>div opp on MNF. NE 11-1 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 12-4 ATS after MIA. NE 14-1 ATS in gms 13-16 w/revenge vs div opp. NE 10-0 ATS in gms 13-16 @HOME w/revenge vs div opp. NE 14-2 ATS w/revenge vs .400> conf opp. BUFF will keep winning to strengthen their playoff positioning. NE will have its first losing season in over twenty years. NE HC Bill Belichick will use these last two games to evaluate players and build for 2021. These two teams met at BUFF in wk 8 with NE QB Cam Newton fumbling the ball on what looked like the go ahead td in the last ten seconds of the game. The td would have won the game for NE but instead BUFF walked away with the victory 24-21. This time there will be no doubt about the victor. BUFF should win by at least ten points. For many years NE has dominated BUFF but that tide will be turning. Lay the points here as BUFF keeps rolling.
THE PICK: BUFF-7 5 STARS
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