2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 3
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 3 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday September 24th, 2020 8:20pm
Miami Dolphins (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-1), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS MIA+3
LW, JAGS were going toe-to-toe with TENN but QB Gardner Minshew threw a low pass that was deflected for an INT at the end of the game and sealed the win for TENN 33-30. JAGS were driving after TENN went up 33-30 and had a legitimate shot at beating TENN with a late td but the INT derailed any winning drive by JAGS. The fact that they were in that position at all vs TENN should be uplifting for JAGS. JAGS were down 21-7 and 30-17 in the 4th qtr in this game but showed a resiliency to come back and tie it before giving up a late fg that helped win the game for TENN. JAGS RB James Robinson had a nice day rushing 16x for 102 yds 1td. Maybe JAGS have found a reliable RB. Minshew connected with eight different receivers vs TENN which shows that JAGS are not relying on just a few guys to get the job done. I liked JAGS vs TENN because they were a BIG DOG and they had a legitimate shot vs TENN. Minshew just needs to take what the DEF gives him and not try to squeeze things in. LW, MIA was in a seesaw battle with BUFF in MIA. MIA actually had the lead in the 4th qtr, 20-17. But BUFF scored 2tds to make it 31-20. MIA scored a dummy td with :49 left to make it 31-28 and give a back door cover to those who had MIA. BUFF was toying with MIA and should have set the tone early but their DEF was giving up a lot of yards and scoring opportunities to MIA. If the MIA DEF was better they may have been able to stop BUFF but BUFF QB Josh Allen was on fire with 24/35 417 yards, 4tds, 0INTS. L5 JAGS vs MIA, JAGS 3-2 SUATS. JAGS 30-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. JAGS 22-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. JAGS 8-3 ATS L11 after TENN. JAGS 5-4 ATS @HOME on TNF. JAGS 8-10 ATS as a FAV 3.pts vs .333<opp. JAGS 2-11 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU loss vs <500 opp off SU loss. MIA 26-26 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MIA 25-28 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MIA 1-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. These two teams will not be in the conversation come playoff time but it will be an interesting battle for fans to see what lies in store as these two teams rebuild. I like the HOME team here because the JAGS are better than MIA and should win @HOME by more than 3pts.
THE PICK: JAGS-3 5 STARS
Sunday September 27th, 2020 1:00pm
Chicago Bears (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS CHI+3
LW, ATL started out very well @DAL. But I think everyone knows the rest. ATL blew a 20-0 lead and the game when they were leading 39-24 with less than 8:00 minutes left in the game. They lost 40-39 to DAL. I liked ATL with the points because I felt that after they were shrubbed by SEA, they would bounce back. ATL did for 3 ½ qtrs and then the roof caved in. ATL HC Dan Quinn is definitely on the hotseat and closer to falling off a cliff. He needs to get some kind of win just to get the team back to some kind of winning feeling. LW, CHI beat NYG @CHI. That is really no big deal and they didn’t do it in any convincing fashion. They were a big FA and didn’t cover. I liked NYG+5 ½ and CHI won 17-13. NYG had their chances to win the game outright but because they have their own problems offensively, couldn’t pull the trigger. CHI has been lucky and not really that good. CHI QB Mitch Trubisky is looking over his shoulder as Nick Foles in on the sidelines. Trubisky had 2INTS vs NYG and was sacked 4x. I’m not convinced of CHI as being a good team because they haven’t beaten anyone yet. Plus, they really haven’t shown anything yet either. L6 ATL vs CHI, ATL 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS. ATL 28-23 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 21-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ATL 6-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. CHI 3-1 ATS in gms 1-4 @HOME vs NFC NORTH. ATL 1-11 ATS in gms 1-4 off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win. ATL 11-0 ATS off non-div gm vs .750>opp. CHI 22-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 32-32 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CHI 6-8 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. ATL is in desperation mode. When a team is like that, they will do anything to win. ATL needs a win in the worst way. The OFF is clicking but again, the DEF has to step up. I said that LW vs DAL and I’ll say it again this week. ATL had 0turnovers vs DAL, so they are doing their job. But the ATL DEF has to do something I like ATL here because they need a win here and just for team morale. Otherwise it will be another lost season for ATL and there will certainly be some house cleaning at the end of the season. Lay the points.
THE PICK: ATL-3 3 STARS
LA Rams (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LAR+3
LW, LAR took it to PHILLY @PHILLY. PHILLY was playing catchup the whole game and was never closer than 5pts when LAR pulled away in the 4th qtr with 2tds to make the final score 37-19. LAR rushed for a combined 191 yards and 2td while LAR QB Jared Goff threw for 2tds & 0INTS. LAR Rookie RB Cam Akers suffered separated rib cartilage and it is unknown if he will suit up for this game. LAR LG Joe Noteboom suffered a calf strain and he is in doubt vs BUFF. So far LAR are playing above expectations and are looking better than expected. LAR are in a tight division and their schedule will get tougher. LW, BUFF was going back and forth with MIA until finally pulling away late in the 4th qtr. But, BUFF did give up a dummy td late to let the score look respectable at 31-28 BUFF. BUFF QB Josh Allen had a good day throwing 24/25 417 yards, 4tds & 0INTS. The rushing game did manage a combined 118 yards but that with Josh Allen’s 18 yards. The rush game for BUFF needs to get going to not only give a balanced attack but to take pressure off of Allen. He can’t keep running and throwing w/o someone reliable to hand the ball off to. Opposing DEFs will T-off. The DEF for BUFF has been giving up a lot of yardage and that was especially true vs MIA. NYJ beat themselves and had their opportunities but they are inept without any help. This week, they face a very talented and balanced OFF that will beat you at your weaknesses. L4 BUFF vs LAR, BUFF 3-1 SUATS. LAR 19-31-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAR 19-32-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAR 17-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. LAR 10-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off BB SU wins. BUFF 30-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 36-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BUFF 2-11 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 12-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU win vs winless opp. BUFF 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs undefeated opp. BUFF 0-10 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opp. BUFF has yet to really prove themselves playing vs NYJ & MIA. LAR has looked very focused after missing the playoffs last year. LAR is a very different team after letting a lot of players go in the off-season. But, so far the LAR DEF has proven solid at stopping both DAL & PHILLY when it counted. The fact that LAR is getting points when they should be giving is saying something. Is this a trap game for LAR? It shouldn’t be and I don’t think so. Take the points and the LAR and enjoy the game. LAR should win this game outright with their DEF scoring some points.
THE PICK: LAR+3 5 STARS
Washington Redskins (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS WASH+6 ½
LW on TNF CLEVE beat CINNCY 35-30. The win didn’t impress me because the analysts were as excited about CLEVE like they just won the SuperBowl. CINNCY is pretty bad and CLEVE isn’t much better. CINNCY was able to score a td very late in the game for a back door cover. But for the most part the CLEVE DEF couldn’t stop CINNCY. There is a lot of talent on CLEVE but, it is not being coached well. As for WASH, they are going through some growing pains and an identity crisis. They rallied back nicely in wk 1 to beat PHILLY, then LW @ARZ, WASH came out flat and never looked back. ARZ stormed out to a 20-0 lead and WASH didn’t have it in them to come back. The DEF for WASH has to play better all around. L4 WASH vs CLEVE, WASH 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. WASH 5-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. WASH 3-10 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB Rg’s. WASH 1-10 ATS as a DOG <12 pts in 2nd of BB RG’s. WASH 35-19 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 27-27 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 1-8 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG 4?pts vs .500>opp. CLEVE 3-14 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CLEVE 17-20 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CLEVE 5-10 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEVE 20-16-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div since 2003. CLEVE 1-6 ATS L7 after TNF. CLEVE 6-17-1 ATS L24 vs NFC. CLEVE 1-7 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEVE 7-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non-div opp off DD SU loss. CLEVE doesn’t impress me and this has the makings of a very sloppy game with WASH keeping it close. You have two very young QBs that are not very disciplined and will take chances that other veteran QBs may not take. I see this game going back and forth with WASH giving just enough effort to lose by a few points. Take WASH and the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+6 ½ 3 STARS
Tennessee Titans (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS MINN+2 ½
LW, MINN looked horrible at INDY. It wasn’t even a game for INDY as they were up 28-3 before MINN scored a dummy td to make the score 28-11. MINN QB Kirk Cousins has not looked good at all. He threw 3INTS and was sacked 3x. The secondary for MINN has been very bad and has made teams look invincible so far. The heat has got to be on MINN HC Mike Zimmer to get this team going in the right direction. LW, TENN got lucky in a seasaw battle @HOME with JAGS. TENN had kicked a fg to make the score TENN 33-30 and JAGS were driving late. But a Minshew pass was deflected and landed in the hands of OLB Harold Landry and that was the game for TENN. But it was lucky because JAGS looked like they might get down the field in time to win the game. The DEF for TENN has not been tight and they have been giving up a lot in the run game. TENN gave up 165 yds rushing to the JAGS. Look for MINN to establish the run game. L4 MINN vs TENN, MINN 3-1 SUATS. MINN 12-3 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. MINN 33-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MINN 27-22 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 21-14-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 12-1 ATS as a DOG <7pts off BB SU losses. MINN 9-5 ATS vs .700> opp. MINN 19-4-1 ATS under HC Mike Zimmer in non-div gms when coming off a loss. MINN 11-0 ATS @HOME off an SU loss. TENN 6-9 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 30-25 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 21-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 8-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins (last vs div) vs non-div. TENN 7-4 ATS L11 after JAGS. TENN 2-16 ATS vs non-div opp off SU loss >10pts. MINN is desperate for a win. If they lose this game and GB wins on SNF, MINN will be three full games behind GB and CHI has been winning as well which would mean a short season for MINN and a definite firing of HC Mike Zimmer. They need this game in the worst way. Look for MINN RB Dalvin Cook to take over and run wild. He needs a breakout game. Plus, he takes a lot of pressure off of Cousins. Key for MINN is stopping TENN RB Derrick Henry. They must take away the running game of TENN. If they do that, MINN has a good shot at winning. Take MINN and the points as MINN should win here at HOME.
THE PICK: MINN+2 ½ 5 STARS
LV Raiders (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LV+6
On MNF, LV certainly showed something good. They were down early vs NO but didn’t get nervous and didn’t get away from the plan. They stayed calm and when they were down 10-0 and most people thought it would be a lost game, they tightened up and stopped the NO OFF cold. In the 4th qtr LV was up 31-17 and NO was in scramble mode but it was too late and LV added an extra fg late in the game to make the score 34-24 LV. The OFF for LV played a very well balanced game but LV QB Derek Carr needs to hold onto the ball a little more. The LV DEF played better than expected vs the high powered NO OFF. NO WR Michael Thomas was out and it showed how much NO relies on him. But, LV adjusted and they won. LW, on SNF NE made a valiant effort at a comeback @SEA and almost pulled it off. SEA took a calculated risk late in the game and did not get a first down, thereby giving the ball back to NE. NE QB Cam Newton drove the team to the SEA 2yard line. With :02 left in the game, NE tried to rush Cam into the endzone with the ball. He was stopped cold by SEA and SEA held on for a 35-30 win. SEA figured out what NE would run and were waiting. I liked SEA-4 but it was a nail biter to the end. Had Newton scored that td he would have brought his ego to an even bigger height. Newton was NE’s leading rusher which shows that NE is relying high on his rushing skills and not their tandem of RBs. SEA ran all over the NE DEF and CB Stephon Gilmore was torched by SEA WR DK Metcalf for a long td. He will make adjustments. NE Julian Edelman had a monster game catching 8 passes for 179 yds. He has seemed to be the go to guy for Cam. L5 LV vs NE, LV 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS. LV 31-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LV 34-30 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LV 28-28 ATS L56 as a ROAD DOG. LV OAK 1-14 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. LV 1-6 ATS after MNF. LV 9-1 ATS in gms 1-4 as a ROAD DOG off SU win vs non-div opp. NE 24-29 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NE 29-35 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NE 26-11-3 ATS L40 @HOME vs non-div. NE 13-5-1 ATS L19 vs AFC WEST. NE 8-9-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 8-0 ATS off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 20-9-2 ATS after an SU loss. NE 14-1 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 7-0 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. NE 12-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off SU loss. I’m not convinced that NE is that strong. They are not playing that fundamental football that NE has played in the past. Do I think NE wins this game? I think NE wins the game but by a very small margin, say a td. LV needs to get their running game going so that the game doesn’t have to fall all on Carr’s shoulders. If he is relaxed and can hand the ball off with confidence, LV has a good shot at winning. They need to stick to the plan like they did vs NO and they will come out with a win. NE is relying too much on the feet of Newton and not giving the ball to their trusted RBs. NE has to get their run game going. Also, if LV can shut down WR Julian Edelman that will help their cause. Yes, NE is in bounceback mode and they should win this game by a td.
THE PICK: NE-6 3 STARS
SF 49ers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NY Giants (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NYG+4 ½
LW, SF destroyed the NYJ 31-13 @ NYJ and it wasn’t even that close. But, in the win, they lost some guys to injuries. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain which QB Nick Mullins had to fill in. His status is questionable for this game. SF DE Nick Bosa is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. SF RB Raheem Mostert suffered a mild sprain of the MCL and is definitely out vs NYG. DE Solomon Thomas tore his ACL and is out for the season. RB Tevin Coleman also suffered a knee sprain and he will be out multiple weeks. SF has a lot of injuries early and they are in a tough division. But, they were still able to contain NYJ. LW, NYG suffered their own big injury as RB Saquon Barkley tore his ACL in the loss at CHI. NYG were down 17-0 in this game before they knew what happened. NYG had their chances to win at the end @CHI but again were inept at finding the endzone. CHI is going through their own problems and is beatable. I liked NYG and the points because I felt that NYG would keep it close. They played catchup the whole game after giving CHI that big lead. The fact that they were able to make a game of it after they lost Barkley says something but, SF is more talented and has more depth. NYG RB Dion Lewis picked up some of the slack after Barkley was injured but how much he can carry going forward is anybody’s guess. He is a good complementary RB nit a starting RB. NYG QB Daniel Jones will have much more pressure to get the ball out there. WR Sterling Shepard suffered a turf toe in this game and is questionable for this game. L9 SF vs NYG, SF 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS. SF 15-8 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. SF 9-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 26-30 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SF 31-29 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 7-2 ATS L9 AWAY vs NFC EAST. SF 7-13-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 6-1 ATS AWAY off SU win vs opp off BB SU losses. SF 2-13 ATS as a FAV vs <500 opp. NYG 9-19 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. NYG 20-36 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYG 30-27 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 3-10 ATS L13 vs NFC WEST. NYG 0-8 ATS L8 @HOME vs NFC WEST. NYG 13-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div vs opp off ATS win. SF is banged up but, they are still better than whatever NYG puts out on the field. They have depth and play in a tougher division. NYG OFF is stagnant and without Barkley will be predictable. This won’t be a blowout like the NYJ game but will be closer. I like SF to win by a td as NYG Daniel Jones will look to lead this team but his impatience will get him in trouble. Look for multiple turnovers by him in a game that SF will be playing without multiple stars. Also, a lot of the stats for NYG are when Eli was the QB so they can be misinterpreted. Jones has yet to write his own story but the book on him is to put pressure on him and that is what SF will do. NYG signed RB Devonta Freeman for their RB needs but don’t look for him to be in game shape his first game back. If Jimmy G doesn’t play, Nick Mullins has shown that he is up to the task. Lay the points here as SF sweeps MetLife Stadium.
THE PICK: SF-4 ½ 5 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2), (1-0-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS CINNCY+6 ½
LW, CINNCY on TNF got into trouble early and played catchup the whole night. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow made a show of it because he never gave up and I figured CINNCY would keep the game close. CLEVE was -6 and that was too much even for them. I liked CINNCY which didn’t disappoint and got a back door cover with :43 left in the game. But, Burrow never played like he was out of it and he led the troops down the field trying to set up a miraculous finish. CINNCY has a terrible D-LINE & O-LINE and if they don’t get better soon on both sides of the ball, teams will just bulldoze them over. Plus, they need to put pressure on the opposing QBs. LW, PHILLY tried to keep it close @HOME vs LAR but eventually LAR just pulled away for a 37-19 win. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz hasn’t looked good with 4INTS in the first two games. Could Jalen Hurts be far behind? Also, injuries have hit PHILLY hard with key injuries in a lot of positions. PHILLY gave up a combined 191 rushing to LAR on 39 carries. CINNCY should take note and run all day. L4 CINNCY vs PHILLY, CINNCY 3-0-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. CINNCY 8-4-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CINNCY 29-25 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CINNCY 22-24-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CINNCY 6-10 ATS L16 AWAY off BB SU losses. CINNCY 3-6 ATS after CLEVE. CINNCY 6-3-1 ATS as a DOG 2>pts in 2nd of BB RG’s. CINNCY 7-2 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 18-6 ATS as a DOG vs NFC EAST. CINNCY 8-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 0-5 ATS w/rest. PHILLY 6-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. PHILLY 28-40 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PHILLY 21-31 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PHILLY 18-7 ATS L25 vs AFC. I think PHILLY will win this game because it is desperately what they need but I think the game will be closer because Burrow never gives up. Could a back door cover happen two weeks in a row? Maybe but, the DEF for CINNCY has got to play better and they need to put pressure on Wentz. What little CINNCY has, they did play LAC tough in wk 1. They need to look at what made them competitive that week and bring it to PHILLY. Take the points here.
THE PICK: CINNCY+6 ½ 3 STARS
Houston Texans (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS HOU+5 ½
LW, HOU @HOME was no match for BALT, 33-16. The game wasn’t even that close. BALT toyed with HOU and HOU was trying to play catchup all game. I say trying because they never were even remotely close to catching BALT. Look at the stats and look at the scoring. Each week HOU HC Bill O’Brien shows more and more people that he doesn’t know what he is doing. He basically dismantled a playoff caliber team. Granted HOU hasn’t gone anywhere deep under his watch but they have made the playoffs in a consistent manner. He has a lot of people shaking their heads. LW, PITT had a 17-3 halftime lead but managed to make the game more interesting by letting DEN back into it. Even though PITT knocked out DEN QB Drew Lock out of the game, QB Jeff Driskel made a game of it bringing DEN to in 17-14 before PITT scored 9 more points to make it a 2score game. However, DEN rallied for a late td for a back door cover. PITT has been known to win games but they are a horrible team ATS. They win but, they win ugly. L5 HOU vs PITT, HOU 1-4 SUATS. HOU 16-21 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. HOU 15-17 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU 4-1 ATS L5 AWAY vs AFC NORTH. HOU 2-7 ATS L9 vs .750>opp. HOU 2-12 ATS in gms 1-4 vs .700>opp off SUATS win. PITT 9-3-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. PITT 19-35 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 23-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PITT 5-18-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU Loss. PITT 9-3 ATS in gms 1-4 as a HOME FAV vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 2-11 ATS L13 as a conf FAV <6pts. HOU is in desperation. They haven’t shown any life against KC or BALT. Now they play another good team, PITT. If Bill O’Brien doesn’t see the urgency in this game then he should be gone soon. PITT will probably win the game by a fg as HOU will come up short. I don’t see a blowout here because it is very rare that PITT blows anyone out. HOU has the personnel to keep it close and somehow get lucky with a win. Take the points here.
THE PICK: HOU+5 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday September 27th, 2020 4:00pm
NY Jets (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS NYJ+10 ½
LW, NYJ looked terrible vs SF and SF lost a lot of players to injury. NYJ were down 31-6 when they scored a dummy td to make the score 31-13. NYJ don’t look good on either side of the ball but they need to have some kind of good showing going forward. But, without much depth and a stagnant OFF it will be pretty tough. LW, INDY beat up on a suddenly very bad MINN team. MINN was predicted to do some damage this season after getting to the playoffs and winning a game but this season, after they let most of their secondary walk, they are looking pretty bad. INDY torched MINN and it was 28-3 before MINN scored a dummy td late to make the score 28-11. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor has taken up where RB Marlon Mack left off. Taylor ran 26x for 101 yds & 1td. The DEF for INDY sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 3x and intercepted him 3x. NYJ secondary is not the same without S Jamal Adams and should be able to pick through easier for INDY QB Philip Rivers. L6 INDY vs NYJ, INDY 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS. INDY 5-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. Indy 24-29 ATS @HOME in SEPT. INDY 30-28 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. INDY INDY 7-1 ATS in gms 1-4 off DD ATS win vs opp off non-div gm. INDY 1-5 ATS L6 vs AFC EAST. NYJ 27-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYJ 28-34 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYJ 16-14-1 ATS L31 as a DOG 7>pts. This game has blowout written all over it. At first I was thinking that NYJ had some kind of chance against INDY but INDY played solid vs MINN and MINN is better than NYJ all through, even the coaches. This is a chance for INDY to set themselves up in the AFC SOUTH while the others are struggling. INDY has to put pressure on NYJ QB Sam Darnold and he will fold like a deck of cards. He’s dainty and can’t do well under any sort of pressure. NYJ HC Adam Gase is way over his head and should be gone after the season. Lay the points here as INDY should score early and often.
THE PICK: INDY-10 ½ 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (1-1), (1-0-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS CAR+6 ½
LW, LAC took KC to OT but lost 23-20. LAC rookie QB Justin Herbert had filled in for Tyrod Taylor and he played like a seasoned veteran. The LAC run game ran wild over the KC DEF for 183 yds and 1td but, KC prevailed with a fg in OT. The LAC DEF was impressive because it held the high powered KC OFF in check most of the game. This game is definitely something to build on for LAC. LW, CAR gave TB a 21-0 lead and then tried to fight their way back but eventually lost 31-17. CAR never got closer than seven points and the td run by TB RB Leonard Fournette late in the game sealed the deal for TB. However, in the loss @TB, CAR RB Christian McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain and will definitely be out for this game. McCaffrey is the heart of the OFF. He rushed 18x for 59 yards and 2tds before being injured. He also caught 4passes for 29 yards. He is not someone that is easily replaced and the CAR OFF will definitely suffer. LAC 4-2 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. L4 LAC vs CAR, LAC 1-3 SUATS. LAC 5-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. LAC 27-27-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 27-30 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAC 34-32-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 19-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 13-3 ATS as a HF >4pts vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 2-10 SUATS L12 vs NFC SOUTH. LAC 10-1 ATS in gms 1-4 when .500> & FAVS vs .<500opp. CAR 7-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CAR 5-8 ATS L13 AWAY off div gm. CAR 11-3 ATS off div gm vs .500>opp. I like LAC in this game for a few reasons. First off CAR does not have McCaffrey. He is a big part of the CAR OFF and when he is not there, CAR is stagnant. Plus the CAR DEF is not that good. Second, LAC QB Justin Herbert looked very good in his 1st start and it was vs KC. He didn’t look intimidated or nervous at all and now he gets a 2nd game with practice during the week. I think he will explode in this game especially @HOME. He brings energy and enthusiasm to an OFF that has been stagnant. Lay the points here as this game has the makings of a blowout.
THE PICK: LAC-6 ½ 5 STARS
TB Buccaneers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS DEN+6
LW, TB @HOME did what they needed to do vs CAR. But the td that mattered and stretched the score by 14 pts came with only 1:48 left in the game. TB was up in this game 21-0 and let CAR get within seven points with two minutes to play. They needed that big run by RB Leonard Fournette to cover the spread and get the win after starting out looking like it was going to be a blowout. A lot of people are thinking that this is Tom Brady but, it is not Brady age 33. It is Tom Brady age 43 and unfortunately he is playing his age. Also, he is playing under HC Bruce Arians who takes gambles with his “no risket, no bisket”. Plus, TB is not as good as those NE teams that Brady led. This team is not as disciplined as what Brady is used to. By the way, TE Rob Gronkowski has 2 receptions for 11yds in two games. LW, DEN had their QB Drew Lock knocked out of the game. In comes QB Jeff Driskel who brings them very close to almost pulling out the game @PITT. He played very well as a guy who didn’t get reps and was stated as the backup. Lock will be out for a few weeks with a rotator cuff strain so Driskel will be in there. DEN needs to get their running game going so that the QB doesn’t feel like he has to do everything. DEN WR Courtaland Sutton is out for the year with a torn ACL & MCL and RB Phillip Lindsey is out with a turf toe. But RBs Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman are very capable of doing some rushing damage. DEN 11-6 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. DEN 30-25-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DEN 19-14 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 25-23-1 ATS L49 after an SU loss. DEN 7-8 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 8-1 ATS before TNF. TB 3-4 ATS L7 as a ROAD FAV. TB 29-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TB 19-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TB 21-17-2 TAS L40 AWAY vs non-div. DEN is due to come away with something. I haven’t been that impressed with TB or Tom Brady. The latter is something I thought I would never say but, age has caught up to him in this sport. DEN should be pumped for this game because they are better than their record dictates. I like them getting points @HOME and I like the attitude that QB Jeff Driskel brings. Take the points here and don’t be surprised if DEN upsets TB.
THE PICK: DEN+6 3 STARS
Detroit Lions (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DET+6
LW, DET was slammed by GB 42-21. So far, DET HC Matt Patricia has been a disaster as HC. The team hasn’t won and seems to be going backwards. DET was actually leading GB @GB 14-3 in the 1st qtr, then the roof caved in. GB scored 31 straight points before DET scored a td to make the score GB 34-21. The DEF for DET has been terrible and Patricia was a DEF guru when he was at NE. The way this team is playing, he will be out of a job sooner than later. DET needs to do something to turn things around. LW, ARZ took it to WASH @ARZ. I felt that the game would be closer because of the way WASH beat PHILLY the week before but, they couldn’t do anything right and ARZ did everything right. What has been more impressive is the way ARZ beat SF the week before. WASH is not that good and to beat them is no big deal. L12 DET vs ARZ, DET 4-7-1 SU & 5-7 ATS. DET 5-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DET 23-32 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DET 35-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DET DET 1-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 3-12-1 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. DET 3-7 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. DET 8-4 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss. DET 2-12 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs .500> opp of SUATS win. ARZ 4-9-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. ARZ 20-28-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 13-20 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ARZ 0-6 ATS in gms 1-4 off non-div vs NFC opp. DET is in desperation to get something going and get a win. There is a lot of talent here on OFF but the DEF has to play better, period. This game has upset written all over it because ARZ may not take DET all that seriously. I think that this game may be closer than the point spread because DET can’t go down 0-3 and expect that Patricia will be around at the end of the season, they need a win here and the points look good.
THE PICK: DET+6 3 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DAL+4 ½
LW, on SNF SEA mad a crucial error late that gave the ball back to NE that could have resulted in a loss for SEA. Good thing the SEA DEF stepped up and tackled Cam Newton on the 2yard line or otherwise it would have been a loss. S Jamal Adams has certainly been a welcome addition to a secondary that was a big question mark heading into this season. But the game vs NE on SNF was a nail biter to the end. SEA has shown that they can score points but they need to get their running game going at a consistent level. SEA did run for a combined 154 yds but didn’t score any tds. All 5tds that SEA scored were on the shoulders of QB Russell Wilson. LW, DAL was down by 20 points @HOME to ATL and down 39-24 with less than 8:00 minutes to play. However, ATL is so inept that they let DAL get back in it and muffed an onside kick that DAL stole this one 40-39. ATL let DAL come back late when the game should have been over. ATL just rolled over and lost. DAL may be exhausted after the last game but we’ll see. L10 SEA vs DAL, SEA 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS. SEA 7-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. SEA 35-22-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 31-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SEA SEA 1-5 ATS L6 as a HF <9pts vs .500<opp. SEA 9-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SEA 12-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp allowed 35>pts. DAL 33-20 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DAL 26-13-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DAL DAL 19-15-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD DOG. DAL 9-2 ATS as a DOG vs NFC WEST. DAL 7-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 6-10 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 13-2 ATS in gms 1-4 after allowing 35>pts. DAL 1-9 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL has not looked good and the injuries that they have suffered have not helped either. SEA knows how to win but they always make it interesting. There is no love lost here as SEA is always a tough place to play even without fans. If the DEF for SEA can play a little tighter than they did vs NE, they should have no problem with DAL. SEA needs to put the game totally on Dak Prescott’s shoulders. If they can do that, SEA will have a nice win.
THE PICK: SEA-4 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday September 27th, 2020 8:20pm
GB Packers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NO Saints (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS GB+3 ½
LW on MNF, NO was taken to task by LV 34-24. NO started out well but their DEF and OFF then stutter stepped and LV took the lead and never looked back. NO really misses WR Michael Thomas. RB Alvin Kamara showed that he can’t do it alone. NO QB Drew Brees doesn’t play particularly well in the 2nd game of the season and that was why I picked LV vs NO. I also picked LV because they were opening their new stadium and they were going to be pumped up. That combination and NO lost. LW, GB was on fire again. GB QB Aaron Rodgers is pissed off and playing to win every game with a vengeance. In two games he has 6tds, 0INTS. He takes it personal that GB drafted Jordan Love and he will make damn sure that Love only comes in when Rodgers is limping off the field. Until then, Rodgers will be on fire. Plus the DEF for GB is playing well too. L7 GB vs NO, GB 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS. GB 24-25 ATS AWAY in SEPT. GB 26-17 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. GB 13-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 8-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. GB 21-8-1 ATS after div gm. GB 7-0 ATS off SU DIV HOME win. GB 1-6 ATS L7 after BB SUATS wins. NO 26-24 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NO 25-29 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NO 35-31-3 ATS as a HF vs non-div. NO 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS after a loss and playing @HOME. NO 13-4 ATS L17 vs NFC NORTH. NO 14-10 ATS on SNF. NO 12-7 ATS as a FAV on SNF. NO 11-2 ATS vs .666> conf opp. NO 12-0 ATS in gms 1-4 as a HOME FAV vs non-div opp off SU win. NO 9-0 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. NO 9-0 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs non div conf opp. NO 14-1 ATS vs .666> conf opp off SU win. Yes NO is in a bounceback situation and @HOME. But this is no pushover game and Rodgers is mad. It will be a tough game for NO and GB will not go quietly. It will be a very tight game and any turnovers will decide the game. Look for it to go down to the wire. I like the points here as Rodgers excels when he is the DOG.
THE PICK: GB+3 ½ 5 STARS
Monday September 28th, 2020 8:15pm
KC Chiefs (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS KC+3 ½
LW, BALT took care of HOU and it wasn’t even a game. They toyed with HOU and the score was 33-16. Watching it was like a preseason game because BALT could almost score at will. HOU was HOU and really was behind from the get go. BALT was never really threatened by HOU and when they needed a score, they got it. BALT rushed for a combined 230 yds. LW, KC had their hands full with LAC. LAC QB Tyrod Taylor was a game day scratch because he had an accidentally punctured lung, so rookie QB Justin Herbert got his first NFL start. Well, he gave KC all they could handle and looked like a seasoned veteran out there. The game was a seasaw match that KC had to kick a fg with :00 on the clock just to send the game to OT. In OT, KC made a stop of LAC and turned around and drove and kicked a fg to win 23-20. But it was a big battle. KC’s OFF didn’t look as good as it did opening night and KC was giving up a lot of rushing yards to LAC. L7 BALT vs KC, BALT 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. BALT 33-19 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 36-28 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT BALT 6-0-2 ATS L8 on MNF. BALT 8-4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. BALT 6-1-1 ATS @HOME on MNF vs opp off SU win. BALT 6-8 ATS L14 vs AFC WEST. BALT 8-2-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC WEST. BALT 8-5-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. BALT 1-16 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. BALT 7-20-1 ATS @ HOME off non-div gm. KC 9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 37-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. KC 31-14 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. KC since 2007 off an SU OT win, 1-5 ATS. KC 6-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. KC 1-5 ATS as a DOG vs AFC NORTH. KC KC 0-4 ATS L4 as a DOG <4pts vs AFC NORTH. KC 8-2 ATS vs .700>opp. KC 2-7 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. KC 11-2 ATS in gms 1-4 when .500> vs opp off DD SU win. KC 14-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. KC 11-1 ATS as a DOG 3>pts. This has slowly sort of become a rivalry with KC beating BALT in 2018 & 2019. But BALT right now is playing better and they know that to get to the SuperBowl it may go through KC. I like BALT @HOME because there is a little revenge factor involved and BALT knows they have to get over that hump. BALT needs to stick to their run game that puts teams on their back. Lay the points here as BALT should win by a TD.
THE PICK: BALT-3 ½ 3 STARS