2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 4
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 4 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 1st, 2020 8:20pm
Denver Broncos (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ NY Jets (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NYJ+1
LW, I said NYJ @ INDY would be a blowout and I was right. What is sad is that NYJ QB Sam Darnold gave INDY 16pts all on his own. He threw 2PICK6 and was tackled in the endzone for a safety. All that beats what NYJ scored in the game, 7pts. Final score was 36-7. On top of it HC Adam Gase is in over his head. NYJ have a slew of injuries but, so do a lot of other teams. There were some positives though. RB Frank Gore managed to run for 57 yards and WR Braxton Berrios caught 4 passes for 64 yds and the only td that the NYJ scored. THE NYJ were actually in this game at 7-7. But when Darnold threw an INT in the endzone when the score was 17-7 INDY that was a back breaker because, had the NYJ scored a td there it would have been 17-14 and a different game. But, Darnold doesn’t have field vision and he can’t get out of his own way. His stats are mostly garbage time when NYJ are completely out of it. So far NYJ have given up too much and dug a hole for themselves in each game. LW, I thought DEN would at least keep it close vs TB. I didn’t think they would win but just keep it close. DEN was able to shut down the TB running game but, they couldn’t shut down TB QB Tom Brady. Brady connected with eight different receivers for 3tds & 0INTS. Brett Rypien has been slated as the starting QB for DEN. He is the son of Mark Rypien, the SuperBowl winning QB for the Redskins in 1991. Lock is not coming back for at least a few weeks, so it will give DEN a chance to see what they have in Rypien. DEN must get their run game going and against NYJ it should soar. Also, the O-LINE for DEN must do a better job as Driskel was sacked in the endzone for a safety. DEN 21-14 ATS as a ROAD FAV. DEN 13-6 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. DEN 25-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 32-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 8-2 ATS AWAY vs <.250 opp. DEN 10-0 ATS AWAY vs .250< non-div opp. DEN 10-3 ATS on TNF. DEN 7-1 ATS vs non-div on TNF. DEN 6-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. DEN 4-11 ATS as a FAV after scoring 14<pts. DEN 1-8 ATS L9 AWAY vs AFC EAST. DEN 7-2 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 0-5 ATS as a FAV vs AFC EAST. NYJ 20-15-1 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 4-10 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. NYJ 29-27 ATS @HOME in OC. NYJ 31-33 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 6-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 4-1 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. NYJ 5-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYJ 2-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. NYJ 6-1 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ 6-0 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 5-0-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. NYJ 1-6 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. DEN has more talent right now then NYJ. Neither of these teams are going anywhere but DEN has hung in there against teams that are better then them. NYJ have been blownout of every game. NYJ vs BUFF were down 21-0 before they came back within 10pts. But DEN hasn’t really been blownout except vs TB. I don’t see this game as a particularly impressive showing by either team, maybe a few turnovers thrown in for good measure but, DEN winning by a td. Lay the points here and go to bed. Nothing to see here.
THE PICK: DEN-1 3 STARS
Sunday October 4th, 2020 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS CHI+2 ½
LW, @ATL, CHI was 26-10 in the 4th qtr. In comes QB Nick Foles for Mitch Trubisky and the rest is history. Foles throws 3tds in the 4th qtr to lead CHI to a comeback victory 30-26. He is now the starter going forward in CHI. How Trubisky beat out Foles in the first place is a mystery. Granted ATL has a DEF that a POP Warner team could score on but, the CHI DEF played a role as well and Foles made some nice throws. This could be the end of Trubisky if Foles leads CHI deep into the playoffs. CHI RB Tarik Cohen suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. LW, INDY clobbered the NYJ 36-7, so what. I said it was going to be a blowout and it was. NYJ Sam Darnold gave three gifts to INDY that the INDY OFF didn’t have to do a thing. Darnold threw 2PICK6 and was tackled in the endzone for a safety. But the key play was when INDY was leading 17-7 and INDY CB Xavier Rhodes picked off Darnold in the endzone. I bet MINN could use Rhodes. A TD by NYJ would have made the score 17-14. Instead it stayed at 17-7. INDY has the #1 TOT DEF but look who they have played, JAGS, MINN & NYJ. They are 1-8. L4 CHI vs INDY, CHI 2-2 SUATS. CHI 11-13 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. CHI 6-8-2 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. CHI 1-6-1 ATS L8 in 1st of BB HG’s vs non-div opp. CHI 21-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 32-21-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 7-8 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. INDY 11-9-1 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 6-7-3 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. INDY 28-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 30-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 11-10-1 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 3-7 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. INDY 1-8 ATS L9 after scoring 35>pts. INDY 12-9-1 ATS L22 as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 11-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs opp off BB SU wins. INDY 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 off DD ATS win vs opp off non-div gm. If Trubisky was the starter I would say that INDY was the choice here. But with Foles starting and getting points @HOME, I like the CHI as the choice. Foles has been around and he knows that if he doesn’t do well, he will lose his starting job and Trubisky will be given another shot. CHI @ HOME getting points with a renewed Foles is a good pick. Take CHI & the points.
THE PICK: CHI+2 ½ 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jags (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1), (2-0-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS JAGS+3
LW, CINNCY played tough @PHILLY. If CINNCY had a better O-LINE & D-LINE they surely would have a better record. But CINNCY QB Joe Burrow is playing great with what he has around him. He just needs some better players. They played to a tie last week and it really didn’t look like either CINNCY or PHILLY wanted to win this game in OT. It looked more like they were playing not to lose. LW on TNF, JAGS came out totally lame from the get go @HOME vs MIA. MIA looked like an all-star team vs JAGS as they went up and down the field with little stoppage by JAGS. The score was MIA 21-7 at halftime and you could certainly turn your sets off there. Final, MIA 31-13. It wasn’t even that close. JAGS looked good in the 1st week vs INDY and decent in the 2nd week vs TENN but need to get back to basics. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew had 1INT & 1 lost fumble vs MIA that didn’t help his cause and he needs to get back on the horse. JAGS should have their way with a CINNCY DEF who can’t stop anyone. L7 JAGS vs CINNCY, JAGS 3-4 SU & 3-3-1 ATS. JAGS 7-11 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. JAGS 29-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 26-24 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 11-1 ATS L12 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 20-10-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 8-1 ATS w/rest vs <.600 opp. JAGS 8-3-1 ATS w/rest. CINNCY 21-34-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 18-28-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 16-4 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 4-10 ATS w/ 1NL vs opp w/rest. CINNCY 8-2 ATS as a non div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 8-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non conf gm. I like the JAGS in this spot because CINNCY has a terrible D-LINE and JAGS have guys that can run. They need to use their RBs as much as possible so that Minshew can have time to throw the ball and make something happen. He needs a good game after the debacle vs MIA. If JAGS get their game going CINNCY will not be able to stop them. Take the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+3 5 STARS
Cleveland Browns (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2) (0-3) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS CLEVE+5
LW, CLEVE beat WASH @CLEVE. They had a lot of help from WASH QB Dwayne Haskins who had 3INTS & 1 lost fumble. WASH was actually up 20-17 in the 4th qtr and the roof caved in for WASH. CLEVE had barely beaten CINNCY on TNF so I liked WASH chances @CLEVE. I didn’t think WASH would turn the ball over 5x. CLEV QB Baker Mayfield had a decent game but the RBs Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt contributed well so that it wasn’t all on Baker Mayfield’s shoulders. Plus CLEVE didn’t have any turnovers. This was a gift for CLEVE. LW, DAL came up short @SEA. You have to give them credit though, they didn’t give up when they were down 30-15 and were able to drive and take the lead 31-30. But when you play SEA, you better make sure that there is exactly :00 on the clock because there is always a chance that they come back. SEA drove and scored a td to make it 38-31. DAL drove back but an INT from pressure by SEA ended the game. The stats for DAL in this game are inflated because they were playing catchup for most of the game. SEA would score first and then DAL would have to battle back. Plus, SEA WR DK Metcalf turned what would be a TD into a DAL touchback. But DAL was able to spread the ball around to different receivers that open up possibilities for future games. DAL did hold the SEA RBs to 95 yds rushing so it was all on the shoulders of QB Russell Wilson. L4 DAL vs CLEVE, DAL 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. DAL 7-5 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. DAL 32-23 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 39-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 20-38-1 ATS L59 as a HOME FAV. DAL 12-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off DD SU win. DAL 4-24-1 ATS @HOME after a SU conf loss. DAL 2-10 ATS as a HOME FAV after a conf loss. DAL 6-0 SUATS L6 vs AFC NORTH. DAL 13-3 ATS in gms 1-4 after allowing 35>pts. CLEVE 15-24-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEVE 25-36-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEVE 7-17-1 ATS L25 vs NFC. CLEVE 1-5 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEVE 2-13 ATS off DD SU win. CLEVE 0-7 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEVE 5-0 ATS off BB SU wins (last vs non-conf). DAL is off the bounceback and CLEVE is really not that good. I’m surprised that the spread is not bigger but DAL will be going full blast. Also DAL has many weapons on OFF that the CLEVE DEF will not be able to stop. Mayfield is no Wilson and does make mistakes when pressured. Lay the points here as DAL should win by more than a td.
THE PICK: DAL-5 5 STARS
NO Saints (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS DET+4
LW on SNF GB, went toe to toe with NO @NO and created a turnover that won the game for GB. I said in my analysis that any turnovers would decide the game, YOU CAN LOOK IT UP. There is no doubt that NO can score points but, the DEF has not been doing its job. A handful of guys are stepping up, while the rest are stepping back. RB Alvin Kamara has stepped up in place of the injured WR Michael Thomas but he is taking extra pounding. He had an exceptional game vs GB but GB figured out how to play him when it mattered most. LW, DET went into ARZ and it was desperation time. DET had lost eleven straight and the HC Matt Patricia ship was sinking and sinking fast. ARZ was a beatable team for DET and I liked their chances to win outright. They did win but, that doesn’t mean that DET is going on a winning streak. DET has a lot of problems and had way too much turnover in the off season. Patricia has acquired a lot of ex-NE players but they need to step up more. RB Adrian Peterson has shown that he has gas left in the tank and the return of WR Kenny Golladay is a good thing. The DEF for DET played well in the 4th qtr vs ARZ and didn’t let ARZ get any points while the OFF kicked 2fgs, one that was the game winner with :00 on the clock. But this week, DET may not be so lucky. L8 NO vs DET, NO 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS incl @ DET, NO 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. NO 15-15 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. NO 32-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 36-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 13-4 ATS L17 vs NFC NORTH. NO 9-1 ATS L10 AWAY vs NFC NORTH. NO 6-0 ATS L6 as a ROAD FAV vs NFC NORTH. NO 4-10 ATS L14 as a non-din Road FAV 2>pts. DET 10-17-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. DET since 2007, wk before bye, 5-8 ATS. DET 23-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 37-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 16-23-1 ATS L40 @HOME vs non-div. DET 11-1 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. DET 9-1 ATS L10 vs .333<opp. I’m very surprised that this spread isn’t higher considering that NO is on a double bounceback and DET is really not that good. DET is basking in the sun while NO is looking at this game to get back to .500 and get back on the winning ways. However, a pissed off NO is not who you want to face. This game may have blowout written all over it. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-4 5 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS TENN+1 ½
THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED TO A LATER DATE BY THE NFL DUE TO POSITIVE COVID TESTS.
LW, PITT beat HOU after spotting them a 21-17 lead. PITT shut HOU down in the 2nd half to 0pts and won 28-21. I liked HOU with the points because PITT wins ugly and HOU was in desperation mode to get something going. But the DEF for PITT has been doing the job. PITT #1 RUSH DEF. Big Ben is showing everyone that he is fully recovered from last season and is looking to lead this team deep into the playoffs. Also, the run game is developing nicely to take some pressure off of Big Ben. However, PITT hasn’t really played anyone besides HOU. Their other two wins were vs NYG & DEN. This will be their 1st real test. LW, TENN spotted MINN a 24-12 3rd qtr lead before making some adjustments and turning the game around. MINN was looking for their 1st win and it looked like they would get it but, TENN made stops on MINN’s last two possessions with an INT and TENN stole the game from MINN @MINN. TENN has been winning ugly themselves. Their three wins are by 2pts, 3pts and 1pt. Not much margin for error. But TENN RB Derrick Henry has been a beast carrying the load for TENN. However, he can’t do it alone. L9 PITT vs TENN, PITT 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. PITT 16-23 ATS as a ROAD FAV. PITT 33-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 46-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 8-20 ATS ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 12-1 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 10-0 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 3-11 ATS L14 as conf FAV 6<pts. TENN 12-16-1 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. TENN 3-11 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. TENN 30-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 31-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 12-6 ATS off SU win/ATS loss vs non-div opp. TENN 7-1-1 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 9-2 ATS vs .600 opp off ATS win. TENN 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off AT win. I like PITT here because of their shut down run DEF and that will put it all on the shoulders of Tannehill. PITT has playmakers of their own and the TENN DEF is not quite as good as it was last season. This is almost a PICK’EM game but I like PITT here to win by at least a fg. Turnovers will prove costly in this game as PITT will capitalize on any mistakes that TENN commits. Go with PITT here.
THE PICK: PITT-1 ½ 5 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS MIA+6 ½
LW, SEA was cruising @HOME vs DAL. SEA was up 30-15 in the 2nd half but let DAL back in the game and let them actually take the lead 31-30. SEA had a nice drive after that which scored a td to make the score 38-31 SEA. However, DAL then led a drive but, an INT in the endzone by SEA ended the game and SEA got the win 38-31. It was very close. There is no question that SEA can score points but, they are giving up points as well. SEA #32 TOT DEF w/#32 PASS DEF. Their DEF makes occasional stops and stops at the end of the game. But in between it’s a different story. SEA SS Jamal Adams suffered a groin strain in the game and his status is questionable for this game. He has added a lot since coming over in a trade from the NYJ but without him the secondary is average and vulnerable. RB Chris Carson suffered a sprain in his knee and is also questionable. Look for RB Carlos Hyde to make the most of an opportunity to start this week @MIA. He is from across Alligator Alley in Naples, FL so he might play extra hard. LW, on TNF MIA came out blazing @JAGS from the opening gun. The score was 21-7 MIA @halftime and JAGS were sleep walking through while MIA rolled 31-13. MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing well and is making sure that he is playing every game like it his last game. He is keeping MIA competitive and not an easy pushover. MIA is still a number of players away before being considered a playoff team but they are trying. SEA 20-17-1 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 27-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 21-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 10-4 ATS L14 after scoring 35>pts. SEA 1-9 ATS AWAY in gms 1-4 vs opp off SUATS win. MIA 20-11-1 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. MIA 32-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 27-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 13-5 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. MIA 13-5 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off SUATS wins. MIA 8-1 as a DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. SEA is too tough a team. They sometimes play down to the competition instead of blowing them out. They do more than enough to win on OFF but the DEF sometimes gets lethargic and have let some teams back into the game, hence the last two games. But this week, they put the metal to the petal and win by at least seven points which is why I like SEA laying the points even on the road.
THE PICK: SEA-6 ½ 3 STARS
LA Chargers (1-2), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LAC+7
LW, LAC came out lame @HOME vs CAR. LAC was a BIG FAV and CAR was leading most of the game. LAC had a chance to win the game with a hook and ladder play that was dropped. The replay showed that the runner would have been able to walk into the endzone. LAC would have won but still not covered. LAC QB Justin Hebert is feeling his way but needs to hold onto the ball a little better. His OFF has talented guys around him and they can get the job done. He needs to take what the DEF gives him. The running game has RBs Austin Ekeler & Joshua Kelley who have been getting the job done. However, they may have a rough time this week vs TB. TB #3 RUSH DEF. This is where Hebert has to be smart. TB has all of a sudden become a motivated NFC FAV and teams need to know that they won’t go away quietly. Their attack has to be different then when Jameis Winston was the QB. LW, TB went into DEN and took care of business. I didn’t think DEN would win but, I thought they would keep it closer. Brady is doing what he did in NE which is spreading the ball around and keeping the DEF on its toes. TE Rob Gronkowski had a much better game statistically wise as he caught 6 passes for 48 yds. The secondary is the weak spot for TB as they can be scored upon if the opposing QB gets some protection. LAC 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. LAC 18-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAC 29-35 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 24-7-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >4pts since 2004. LAC 8-2 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 8-2 ATS AWAY vs .600>non-div opp. LAC 1-6 ATS before MNF. LAC 2-10 SUATS L12 vs NFC SOUTH. TB 17-30-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 17-29-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 0-8-1 ATS before TNF. TB 7-2-1 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU FAV loss. TB 4-6-1 ATS L11 off DD SU win. TB 0-6-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 4-0-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >2pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. I like LAC to keep it close and maybe even score the upset. No, I’m not crazy. Everyone is touting Brady & CO but they beat DEN, so what. If LAC plays smart with 0turnovers they could actually win the game. If they get sloppy and starting turning the ball over, it could get ugly. The DEF for LAC will need a bounceback game and create some unexpected turnovers and they could shock the world. Take the points here as this game may be closer than the spread suggests.
THE PICK: LAC+7 3 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Washington Football Team (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS WASH+13
LW, WASH couldn’t keep it close @CLEVE. WASH was actually winning the game 20-17 and looking good but WASH QB Dwayne Haskins committed an INT & a fumble which turned it into 10pts for CLEVE. If that wasn’t enough, CLEVE scored a td on their own that made the final score 34-20 CLEVE. Haskins has to make better choices if WASH is going to have a shot at either winning a game or keeping it close. Haskins had 3INTs & 1 lost fumble and that has been problem for him since he has been in the NFL. In total, WASH had 5turnovers. You can’t expect to win when you commit 5turnovers. Four of the turnovers were turned into 24 CLEVE pts. CLEVE was a beatable team for WASH and now they face a pissed off BALT. LW on MNF, BALT was @HOME facing KC. KC took control of the game in the 2nd qtr and BALT tried playing catchup. BALT got within 7pts in the 4th qtr but, KC added a td for good measure and the final score ended up being KC 34-20. The DEF for BALT was completely outplayed and if KC kept the metal to the petal they would have scored over 40 points. KC seemed to slow down in the 3rd qtr just enough for BALT to get things going but BAL t never really got that close. This was the 3rd meeting between Mahomes-Jackson and Mahomes is now 3-0 SUATS. BALT & QB Lamar Jackson have to get over that KC hump if they want to get to the SuperBowl. BALT 15-11-1 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 28-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 25-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 7-12-1 ATS L20 vs NFC. BALT 6-3 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-div opp. BALT 10-4 ATS L14 vs non-conf opp off SU loss. BALT 9-2 ATS in gms 1-4 off HOME vs non-div opp off SU losses. BALT 1-8 ATS off non-div SU FAV loss. WASH 16-17 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. WASH 6-9 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. WASH 30-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 31-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 3-7 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opps. WASH 9-5 ATS as a HOME DOG vs.400>opp. WASH 5-8 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 7-0 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 1-8 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG 4>pts vs .500>opp. BALT is in a bounceback mode and WASH is in their way. This game has blowout written all over it as BALT regroups and gets back on track. WASH doesn’t have the personnel to compete with a team like BALT and really couldn’t compete with CLEVE. BALT should bounceback in a nice way and get back on track. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BALT-13 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-2) (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS CAR+3 ½
LW, ARZ was @HOME vs DET. DET was desperate for a win having lost eleven straight dating back through last season. DET made stops that they normally wouldn’t have against other teams and ARZ was stymied when it looked like they would move the ball. I liked DET because they were desperate. A team plays better when they know that some changes may be a coming if they don’t get a win. LW, CAR played well @LAC and stopped LAC QB Justin Herbert from doing damage as he did the previous week vs KC. Herbert stats are inflated vs CAR because LAC was playing catchup the whole game but never caught up. CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater played a nice game and is getting used to life without RB Christian McCaffrey. However, CAR almost lost the game but not the spread on a hook and ladder play at the end by LAC that was dropped. L10 CAR vs ARZ, CAR 8-2 SU & 7-1-2 ATS. CAR 7-11-1 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. CAR 34-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 23-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 4-8 ATS L12 before ATL. CAR CAR 7-0 ATS L7 off SU DOG win. ARZ 12-8 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 8-6 ATS in 1st of BB Rg’s. ARZ 19-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 19-19 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ARZ 7-0 ATS off SU loss vs <.500 opp. I like CAR here becase they don’t have any pressure on them and can feel good about their win @LAC. ARZ has pressure on them for a bounceback but their DEF is sketchy and can be scored upon. I don’t think either team will blow the other out but it could be a struggle for either team finding their way. This will be a tight game and turnovers will be costly but, I like the HOME TEAM here.
THE PICK: CAR+3 ½ 3 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS MINN+3 ½
Is MINN really this bad? You have to think that they certainly could have used CB Xavier Rhodes last week vs TENN. He had 2INTS playing for INDY vs NYJ. Coincidently MINN has 2INTs as a full team. Only one of those is by anyone in the secondary. What happened to Kirk Cousins? He has been playing awful. He has 6INTS in three games. The O-LINE hasn’t done their job either as Cousins has been sacked 7x in three games. Something radical has to be done by HC Mike Zimmer or there will be a house cleaning come the off-season. MINN was up 24-12 @HOME vs TENN in the 3rd qtr and let TENN run wild after that. The DEF for MINN was non-existent as TENN scored 2tds and 2fgs to win the game 31-30. Something has to change for MINN. The MINN secondary has to get a lot beeter real soon. HOU hasn’t played much better. They were up 21-17 @PITT and didn’t score a point in the 2nd half. PITT meanwhile put the clamp on HOU but turned around and scored a td and a fg to win 28-21. So far, all the moves that HOU HC/GM Bill O’Brien has made this past off-season have been disasters. HOU QB Deshaun Watson has been sacked 13x in three games. Where is the O-LINE? L4 MINN vs HOU, MINN 4-0 SUATS. MINN 5-8 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. MINN 17-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MINN 27-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 22-14-1 ATS as a DOG 4pts or less. MINN 5-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU losses. MINN 9-0 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opps. MINN 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts off BB SU losses. MINN 13-1 ATS as a DOG <7pts off BB SU losses. HOU 6-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. HOU 16-18-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 13-19-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 11-6 ATS L17 before JAGS. HOU 22-10-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600<opp. HOU 1-5 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. MINN has a better HC than HOU and RB Dalvin Cook should run wild in this one. He rushed for 181 yds on 22 carries & 1td vs TENN and I don’t see why he couldn’t do it again this week. He should take some pressure off of Cousins as long as the MINN DEF doesn’t give up too much. HOU can’t get out of their own way and QB Deshaun Watson is not progressing under O’Brien’s tutelage. This is two teams that are 0-3 and are going nowhere. It should have been two teams that are 3-0 and are adding to last season. Take the points here as it should be a very close game with MINN coming out ahead.
THE PICK: MINN+3 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday October 4th, 2020 4:00pm
NY Giants (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ LA Rams (2-1), (2-0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS NYG+12 ½
LW, LAR @BUFF, LAR made a nice big comeback and actually took the lead late in the 4th qtr. Unfortunately, the LAR DEF was asleep in the last drive by BUFF and BUFF was able to score a td and win. LAR were down 28-3 and actually took the lead 32-28 but the LAR DEF played tired and let BUFF march down the field and score a winning td. LAR dug a deep hole early and it was a lot to comeback on but in the end they didn’t have quite enough to pull out the win. LAR was able to get their run game going and RB Darrell Henderson rushed 20x for 114 yds and 1td. LAR DT Aaron Donald was a beast with 2 sacks including a strip sack that LAR was able to turn into a td. LW, NYG lost @HOME to SF’s practice squad 36-9. NYG looked awful and only managed 3fgs. NYG QB Daniel Jones looked awful with 1INT & 1 lost fumble. The score was tied 6-6 early in the 2nd quarter but after that it was all SF. NYG are a mess and they don’t have the answers or the coaching staff. Now they travel to face a LAR team on a bounceback. L6 LAR vs NYG, LAR 1-5 SUATS. LAR 30-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 25-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 22-19 ATS L41 as a HOME FAV. LAR 7-0 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs .250<non-div opp. LAR 7-0 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV >3pts vs .250<opp. LAR 2-8 ATS in gms 1-4 vs non-div opp off SU loss. LAR 8-0 ATS vs <.333opp. NYG 4-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NYG 35-19-1 ATS AWAY In OCT. NYG 27-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 3-14 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 3-11 ATS L14 vs NFC WEST. NYG 3-5 ATS L8 before DAL. NYG 12-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >5pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 18-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 1-9 ATS after allowing 35> vs .500>opp. NYG 0-4 ATS L4 after scoring 10<pts. This is a game of MEN vs boys. LAR has found their running game and NYG will not have an answer. LAR is in a bounceback and this game has blowout written all over it. Look for LAR to attack with multiple personnel and NYG will be caught not knowing what just happened. Also, look for the LAR DEF to score some points as well. Lay the points here as LAR scores early and often.
THE PICK: LAR-12 ½ 5 STARS
NE Patriots (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS NE+10 1/2
THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY BECAUSE OF POSITIVE COVID TESTS BY BOTH TEAMS. ANY CHANGE IN THE SPREAD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
LW, on MNF @BALT, KC ran over BALT like a steamroller. KC took a 27-10 halftime lead and coasted the rest of the way for a 34-20 win. At times it looked like the BALT DEF wasn’t even on the field because the KC OFF was easily moving down the field without any real resistance. KC QB Pat Mahomes threw for almost 400 yds, 4 tds, 0INTS and wasn’t even sacked. It almost seemed like he wasn’t even pressured either. The KC DEF took charge as well sacking BALT QB Lamar Jackson 4x and putting BALT out of their game and having to play catchup all night. It wasn’t the kind of game that most people had expected. LW, NE @HOME took care of LV after NE lost @SEA the week before. It was a bounceback for NE and they took control of the game in the 2nd qtr and never looked back. NE was able to get their running game going for 250 yds on 38 carries. LV didn’t help their cause with 3 lost fumbles. L8 KC vs NE, KC 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS. KC 6-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. KC 35-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 18-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 16-14-1 ATS L31 vs AFC EAST. KC 12-4 ATS @HOME vs .666> non-div opp. KC 12-2 ATS in gms 1-4 when .500> vs opp off DD SU win. NE 36-20-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 22-14 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 25-9-2 ATS as a DOG since 2003. NE 23-11-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG since 2002. NE 14-5-1 ATS L20 vs AFC WEST. HC Belichick 27-13-2 ATS as a RD in OCT. NE 6-2 ATS L8 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. NE 7-2 ATS in gms 1-4 as a DOG vs non-div opp. NE 1-7 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win. Can anyone stop KC? Last season KC beat NE in NE during the season. I think KC has gotten stronger and will attack on DEF to make sure that Newton can’t hurt them. Can the DEF of NE stop the KC OFF? I honestly don’t think so. I thought BALT could and they didn’t. KC will use different guys in different situations to throw the NE DEF off its mark. CB Stephon Gilmore was burned by SEA. I could see him getting burned this week. He is very good but Mahomes has that touch that’s hard to beat. Gilmore is like your shadow and the QB has to put it in such a place that’s it’s almost impossible to defend. I see KC winning by 10 points.
NE QB Cam Newton wll not be playing in this game and I don't see anything stopping the KC Express. Lay the points here
THE PICK: KC-10 1/2 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (3-0), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ LV Raiders (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LV+3
LW, BUFF had a comfortable lead @HOME vs LAR 28-3. Then they relaxed a little and LAR went on a scoring surge to take the lead 32-28. But somehow BUFF was able to muster up a drive with the clock winding down and the LAR DEF being gassed and out of position. BUFF scored a td with :15 to take the lead 35-32 and win the game. Along the way there was a controversial pass interference call against LAR that really could have gone either way but, this certainly helped BUFF’s cause. But the game showed that there are holes in the BUFF DEF. The week before BUFF gave up 28pts to MIA. LW, LV were really playing catchup the whole game @NE. I didn’t think LV would keep it close vs NE off a loss and on a bounceback @HOME. NE got their running game going for 250 yds and 2tds and they never looked back. LV couldn’t stop NE when it mattered most. NE RB Sony Michel rushed for 117 yds on only 9 carries. LV QB Derek Carr was able spread the ball around to nine different receivers which is very good. This keeps the DEF on its toes as they don’t where the ball will be thrown next. But, Carr had 2 lost fumbles and he needs to hold onto the ball a little better and make better decisions when the pocket is collapsing. L7 LV vs BUFF, LV 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. LV 16-21-1 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. LV 25-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 36-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 4-0 ATS L4 @HOME vs AFC EAST. LV 8-5 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10 pts. BUFF 6-9 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 8-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. BUFF 22-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 29-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV has to stop opposing teams from being able to run on them. They have to take what they were vs NO and bring that forward. LV must develop the run game vs BUFF to take pressure off of Carr. They need to use what worked vs NO and use that game plan. BUFF is susceptible to the run and LV has the horses to do it. I like LV here in a bounceback @HOME and BUFF looking the other way.
THE PICK: LV+3 3 STARS
Sunday October 4th, 2020 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS PHILLY+7
LW, the SF prep team beat up a terrible NYG team @NYG 36-9. SF has many injuries on both sides of the ball but, they were still able to dominate a NYG team that couldn’t find the endzone all day and settled for 3fgs. The SF DEF was able to cause an INT and a lost fumble on NYG QB Daniel Jones. SF QB Nick Mullins settled in nicely and spread the ball around against a NYG DEF that was left shaking their heads. SF ran the ball well and took control of the game in the 2nd half. This game was never in any doubt. LW, PHILLY got a run for the money in an OT tie @HOME vs CINNCY. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow certainly outplayed PHILLY QB Carson Wentz. If CINNCY had better personnel, CINNCY would have won for sure. PHILLY has some injuries but Wentz has not made good decisions and has 6 INTS in three games hence PHILLY’s record. PHILLY RB Miles Sanders seemed to get his game going vs CINNCY but will have a lot tougher time this week vs SF. SF #3 TOT DEF w/#2 PAS DEF. PHILLY #24 TOT OFF. PHILLY has not played well hence their injuries and have shown that they are weak at depth. L8 SF vs PHILLY, PHILLY 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS. SF 6-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. SF 41-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 29-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 8-13-1 ATS L22 as a FAV. SF 9-8 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 7-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. SF 8-13-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 3-13 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 0-7 ATS @HOME off SU win vs<.500 opp. PHILLY 4-9 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. PHILLY 26-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 16-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 5-13 ATS L18 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 9-11 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PHILLY 6-13 ATS vs .666>conf opp. PHILLY 2-6 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. PHILLY 2-6 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. I like SF big here because even with their injuries they are still playing well. Granted, their two wins were vs NYG & NYJ but, guys who were not starting at the beginning of the season have stepped up and dominated. Had SF barely won vs NYG & NYJ, I would be singing a different tune. PHILLY is better than NYG & NYJ but you wouldn’t know it looking at their record or Wentz’s stats. This is a game for SF to beat a better team as they compete in the tough NFC WEST. SF QB Nick Mullins has to play a smart game because even though PHILLY is hurting, they are good at stopping the pass. Even though PHILLY has dominated SF in the past, I like SF because they are playing better and have better guys step up in depth.
THE PICK: SF-7 5 STARS
Monday October 5th, 2019 8:15pm
Atlanta Falcons (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ GB Packers (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS ATL+7
LW, GB did what they had to do @NO and won the game. I said that a turnover would probable decide the game and it did. You can look it up. GB QB Aaron Rodgers is in pissed off mode and any team facing him will see a guy that will not make a mistake. He has QB Justin love looking over his shoulder and Rodgers has something to prove. He is playing like a man possessed. Anyway, GB went toe to toe with NO on SNF but created a turnover when they needed to change the momentum of the game. GB did, and capitalized on it and NO couldn’t catch up. Plus, filter in the running game for GB and NO was caught off guard. LW, ATL did some deja vue all over again. They blew a big lead @HOME vs CHI and lost. They were up 26-10 in the 4th qtr when CHI decided to switch QBs from Trubisky to Foles. Foles did throw and INT in between 3tds but ATL didn’t do anything to stop CHI and ended up losing 30-26. ATL is a sinking ship and HC Dan Quinn probably isn’t sleeping well. ATL WR Julio Jones did not play due to a strained hamstring. That can be very painful and doesn’t heal quickly. If he doesn’t play in this game it is certainly lights out for ATL. ATL #31 PASS DEF vs GB #6 PASS OFF, ouch! ATL has given GB some difficulty in the past in PRIMETIME but they have major concerns to worry about this time around. L9 GB vs ATL, GB 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. GB 4-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. GB 32-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 23-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 8-11 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. GB 3-7 ATS L10 off SU DOG win. GB 2-6 ATS L8 off BB SUATS wins. ATL 30-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 34-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 8-3 ATS as a DOG vs NFC NORTH. ATL 6-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. ATL 5-16 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. ATL 1-12 ATS in gms 1-4 off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win. ATL 11-2 ATS off non-div gm vs .750 opp. ATL 1-8 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss. The DEF of ATL will be picked apart by Rodgers. Sprinkle in some running plays and GB should have a field day out there on MNF. ATL has a lot of problems on both sides of the ball and GB will certainly take advantage of it. Lay the points here as Rodgers & CO are on a mission.
THE PICK: GB-7 5 STARS