2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 5
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 5 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 8th, 2020 8:20pm
TB Buccaneers (3-1), (2-1-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS CHI+4 ½
LW, CHI threw a dud @HOME vs INDY. CHI managed 1td and that was not that impressive. INDY has the #1 TOT DEF and CHI managed a total of 28 yds rushing. CHI QB Nick Foles couldn’t get ay magic going like he did vs ATL, the week before. ATL has a terrible DEF and INDY has a much better DEF. But, CHI did have their chances to at least keep this game close but did not. The CHI DEF gave up rushing yards to INDY when they needed to make a stop. Now CHI faces a DEF that is almost just as good as INDY’s. TB #4 TOT DEF w/ #2 RUSH DEF. CHI may be able to get their passing game going because TB #19 PASS DEF. LW, TB @HOME was in a sea saw battle with LAC. LAC was actually up 24-7 in the 2nd qtr but TB came storming back. LAC actually had the lead 31-28 going into the 4th qtr but couldn’t do much else and lost 38-31. I actually liked LAC+7 because I thought the game would be close. It should have been and it was for the most part. It was, and LAC was winning but, they couldn’t hang on. Brady and CO made adjustments after getting off to a slow start and went on a scoring parade. Brady threw 5tds to 5 different receivers. Also, TB was able to rush the ball successfully too which kept the LAC DEF on their toes. TB RB Ronald Jones rushed 20x for 111 yards. L10 TB vs CHI, TB 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS. TB 4-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV. TB 19-33-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 17-30-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 22-17-2 ATS L41 AWA vs non-div. TB 2-7-1 ATS on TNF. TB 1-12 ATS in gms 5-9 vs opp off non-div game. TB 6-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs <.500 non-div opp. CHI 11-14 ATS as a HOME DOG. CHI 5-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CHI 21-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 32-22-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 3-9 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 5-9 ATS on TNF. CHI 1-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. CHI 1-8 ATS in gms 5-9 vs .500>opp off SU win 7>pts. CHI has three wins vs three teams that are a combined 1-11. TB has beaten LAC, DEN & CAR. They lost their opener @NO. TB has looked much better since wk 1 and has seemed to work out their kinks on OFF. Brady was able to spread the ball around to nine different receivers. Can CHI cover nine different receivers? CHI LB Khalil Mack has been quiet so far this season and has a knee injury that may keep him out for this game. By the way, their may be a little revenge factor for Brady. Foles was the QB of PHILLY a few seasons ago when they beat NE in the SuperBowl. This may be a little payback even though it is only a regular season game but, Brady never forgets. This game will be a shootout but I like TB winning by a td.
THE PICK: TB-4 ½ 3 STARS
Sunday October 11th, 2020 1:00pm
Carolina Panthers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (0-4), (0-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS CAR+3
LW, CAR did what they had to do @HOME vs ARZ. They have shown that they are learning to play without RB Christian McCaffrey. This is a good thing because when he does return, he will not be expected to carry so much of the load. CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater was able to spread his passes to eight different receivers vs ARZ. ARZ was never really in this game and it was 28-7 in the 3rd qtr and 31-14 in the 4th qtr. ARZ added a td late to make the final score CAR 31-21. But in reality, it was never that close. ARZ RB Kenyan Drake was shut down for 35 yards rushing and didn’t catch any passes out of the backfield. Meanwhile CAR rushed for a combined 168 yards and 2tds. LW on MNF, ATL was trailing 20-3 at halftime @GB and you could turn your sets off there. It was GB 27-9 going into the 4th qtr and ATL didn’t have a chance. The ATL DEF is terrible and HC Dan Quinn will probably be out after the season. ATL #31 TOT DEF w/#31 PASS DEF. They are respectable with ATL #9 RUSH DEF but why go there when opposing QBs are lighting it up. Even the OFF can’t seem to get going on the same page. The stats for the ATL OFF are misleading because they have blown leads and have played garbage time hence the 0-4 record. L13 CAR @ATL, ATL 10-3 SUATS. L18 CAR vs ATL, HOME 12-6 ATS. L16 CAR vs ATL, DOG 8-8 ATS. CAR 31-20 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 35-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 19-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. CAR 15-13-1 ATS L29 off DD SU win. CAR 3-12 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 13-2 ATS as a DOG vs .333<opp. CAR 9-1 ATS in gms 5-9 as a DOG vs opp off DD SU loss. CAR 9-1 ATS in gms 5-9 when .500> vs div opp. CAR 8-0 ATS L8 off SU DOG win. CAR 2-12 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. ATL 26-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 21-24 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 23-12 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. ATL 8-0 ATS as a FAV after MNF. ATL 0-9 ATS in gms 5-9 vs opp off HOME gm. Yes ATL is desperate for any kind of win but CAR is proving that they can win without McCaffrey and they should go to the air as much as possible against the ATL secondary. This game may be a shootout and any turnovers in this game will loom large. But CAR has done well in the past and Bridgewater is looking to supplant himself as the QB for CAR after signing the big contract in the off-season. I like CAR here even though ATL is desperate.
THE PICK: CAR+3 3 STARS
Buffalo Bulls (4-0), (2-1-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-0), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS
Game has been changed to Tues Oct 13th. Analysis for this game is further down the screen.
THE PICK: TBD
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (4-0), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS LV+13
LW on MNF 1 KC was @HOME vs a NE team without a QB. The spread went from -7 ½ to -10 ½ because Cam Newton was out for NE. Originally this game was scheduled for SUN afternoon but with all the COVID it was pushed back to MNF 1. I liked KC even at -10 ½ because I felt that they would cover. However, they needed a gift PICK6 to cover the spread. There was no doubt that they were beating NE w/o Newton but the spread was a risk. Who would have thought that WR Julian Edelman would be the giver of such a nice gift. NE had no shot with Brian Hoyer & then Jarrett Stidham (with no practice) at QB. NE never got into any kind of momentum that they could turn KC back. The OFF was llost with Hoyer and even more lost with Stidham. It looked as though KC was just toying with NE just enough to win and not get anybody injured. LW, LV never had the lead for a second @HOME vs BUFF. LV was playing catchup the whole game and never could get that drive to a td to take the lead. LV always had to settle for a fg when they needed a td. That is the biggest problem with LV, no consistency. Plus, to make matters worse, LV had a fumb which turned into a td for BUFF. The LV DEF sacked BUFF QB Josh Allen 1x. What will they do this week vs Pat Mahomes? Probably not that much. L13 KC(H) vs LV, KC 7-6 SU & 6-7 ATS. L26 KC vs LV, ROAD 15-10 SUATS. L26 KC vs LV, DOG 13-11 ATS 2PICK’EMS. KC 6-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. KC 1-14 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HG’s. KC 36-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 26-16 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 19-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 3-8 ATS after MNF. KC 14-2 ATS @HOME in gms 5-9 vs .500>opp off SU loss. KC 10-2 ATS vs .500> div opp. LV 5-7-1 ATS since 2007 before bye. LV 31-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 36-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 20-24 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 28-29 ATS as a ROAD DOG. LV 19-4 ATS as a div ROAD DOG >3pts off SU loss. LV 10-2 ATS in gms 5-9 off SU loss vs opp off BB SUATS wins. The reason why I like KC is because of the following stats. L5 KC vs LV, KC 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS. LV is just not there yet and there is no consistency to their playing from week to week. They played great vs NO but have come up lame vs NE & BUFF when they could have really turned the corner. Since the NO game I truly believe that LV has taken a step backwards. Their DEF doesn’t make stops when they need them and the OFF doesn’t make the plays that get them down the field. Carr has been inconsistent and too many times looks confused coming off the field. Lay the points here as LV blows another one big.
THE PICK: KC-13 5 STARS
Arizona Cardinals (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ NY Jets (0-4), (0-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS NYJ+7
LW on TNF, DEN @NYJ was toying with NYJ. DEN is not the same without QB Drew Lock and Brett Rypien did OK for a guy on a short week getting his 1st NFL start. He did have 3INTS, including a PICK6 but NYJ couldn’t overcome the DEN OFF. The DEF for NYJ couldn’t make any stops. Plus, the NYJ OFF was pitiful when they needed it most. NYJ QB Sam Darnold hurt his shoulder and Joe Flacco briefly came in but Darnold finished the game. Why he came back in is anybody’s guess. NYJ did score 13 pts of Rypien’s 3INTS. NYJ HC Adam Gase has to know that if he gets more guys back from injury and continues to lose he will be gone after the season. RB Le’Veon Bell is scheduled to come back but how much he really has 1st week back is questionable. ARZ was playing catchup all day @CAR. It was CAR 28-7 in the 3rd qtr and you could turn your sets off there. Final score CAR 31-21. ARZ QB Kyler Murray had a good day in catchup but CAR as a team had a better one. ARZ DEF didn’t sack CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater 1x. CAR rushed for 168 yds & 2tds. CAR found a big way to win vs ARZ w/o RB Christian McCaffrey and ARZ wasn’t ready. ARZ will surely find a way to get to the QB this weekend. ARZ 12-9 ATS as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 7-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. ARZ 19-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 19-20 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ARZ 2-10 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU loss. ARZ 12-2-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 11-2 ATS in gms 5-9 vs <.500 non-div opp off HOME gm. ARZ 7-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.500 opp. NYJ 20-17-1 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 7-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NYJ 29-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 31-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 2-8 ATS after TNF. NYJ 16-16-1 ATS L33 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 6-3 ATS L9 after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 6-1 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 1-9 ATS as a HME DOG vs NFC WEST. NYJ 10-2 ATS in gms 5-9 vs non-div opp off SU loss. NYJ 6-1 ATS as a HOME DOG 10<pts after allowing 35>pts. ARZ is on a bounceback and has the talent to learn from their mistakes. NYJ are badly coached and they were penalized on DEF for unsportsmanlike conduct too many times vs DEN. That is totally on DC Greg Williams who has a history of being out of control and doing things the wrong way. The ARZ D-LINE should be able to get to whoever plays QB for NYJ this weekend because the O-LINE for NYJ is terrible. They gave up 6 sacks to DEN. NYJ will find a way to lose while ARZ gets a nice victory here. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: ARZ-7 5 STARS
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS PHILLY+7
LW, on SNF PHILLY @SF, PHILLY probably played their best game of the season so far. They didn’t panic when SF took a 14-8 lead in the 3rd qtr. They buckled down their DEF and even returned a PICK6 which sealed the game for PHILLY. The DEF also contributed five sacks. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz played a manageable game and took advantage of what the SF DEF was giving him. He also spread his passes to seven different receivers. LW, PITT had an unscheduled BYE due to an outbreak of COVID by multiple TENN players and staff. In a way it was a good break to rest on get back on the horse in the tough AFC NORTH. They are battling BALT and to stay ahead of them in the standings. Before their bye, PITT came from behind and beat HOU. HOU was leading 21-17 at the half and the PITT DEF stopped HOU cold in the second half. PITT scored 11 unanswered points and the game ended with PITT winning 28-21. I knew PITT would win, I just thought the game would be closer because HOU was and is still in desperation mode. PITT 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. L4 PITT vs PHILLY, PITT 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. PITT 6-9 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. PITT 37-19-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 46-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 1-8 ATS as a FAV >2pts w/rest. PITT 8-0 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV >3pts vs opp off SUATS win. PITT 7-1 ATS before div HOME gm. PHILLY 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. PHILLY 27-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 17-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 18-8 ATS L26 vs AFC. PHILLY 2-6 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. PHILLY 12-3 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PITT is fully rested and should come out swinging. PITT #2 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF should give PHILLY problems. For PHILLY the game will rest on Carson Wentz’s shoulders but PITT will be ready. I like PITT to win by 10points here as Wentz will have a couple of turnovers that will put some doubt in the PHILLY faithful. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PITT-7 5 STARS
LA Rams (3-1), (2-1-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-0-1) ATS @ Washington Football Team (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS WASH+7
LW, LAR got a lot lucky in their game @HOME vs NYG. LAR was leading 17-9 and late in the 4th qtr NYG were running a nice drive on what could have been a tying TD. But NYG QB Daniel Jones being Daniel Jones, he threw an INT at the LAR 5yd line. That was then end of the game but LAR didn’t even come close to covering the -12 1/2. LAR was a huge FAV but it seemed that the NYG DEF was keeping the high powered LAR OFF in check all game. NYG DEF held the LAR rushing game to 58 yards. This game was LAR 10-9 until 6:56 in the 4th qtr when LAR scored their 2nd td of the game to make the score 17-9. LAR got away with one and now they travel cross country. LW, BALT was toying with WASH. It was BALT 28-10 in the 3rd qtr and you could turn your sets off there. The final score was BALT 31-17. Although BALT was -13, a cover is a cover. In the midst of it all, WASH QB Dwayne Haskins has been benched by HC Ron Rivera and Kyle Allen has been inserted as the starter with Alex Smith as the backup. This will certainly shake things up all around. Something has to change in WASH. WASH did have their chances vs BALT but they were squandered. L10 WASH vs LAR, WASH 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS. WASH 16-18 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. WASH 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. WASH 30-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 31-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 14-8-1 ATS L23 before NYG. WASH 3-8 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opps. WASH 9-6 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 5-9 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 7-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. LAR 11-10-1 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 8-8 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. LAR 27-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 25-17 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 13-3 ATS vs non-div opp off 3+losses(last by DD). LAR 11-1 ATS in gms 5-9 as a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. LAR 9-0 ATS vs <.333 opp. The change @QB for WASH may be a good thing and we’ll see how it plays out. After a blowout, teams come back a little stronger. I like LAR to win but I like the points that WAH is getting and Kyle Allen knows the Rivera system having played it in CAR. Turnovers will loom large in this game. If WASH DEF can do what NYG DEF did a week ago, they will have a chance in this game. This could be a trap game for LAR as they look ahead to SF. It should be an interesting game. Take the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+7 3 STARS
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1), (3-0-1) ATS, (0-1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS CINNCY+13
LW, CINNCY had a nice game @HOME vs JAGS. I hate to say so what but, JAGS are terrible and almost can’t get out of their own way. CINNCY took control of the game in the 3rd qtr and never looked back. Yes, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow got his 1st NFL win and it probably feels very good but now for a reality check. They play @BALT this week. LW, BALT played with WASH. It was 21-10 at halftime and BALT coasted to a 31-17 win. BALT barely covered the spread but a win is a win. WASH is another terrible team and WASH was playing catchup the whole game. Disregard WASH QB Dwayne Haskins stats because they were never really in it and he was playing catchup. Plus, BALTT ran for a lot of yards which they will certainly do this week vs CINNCY. BALT #3 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY #27 RUSH DEF. BALT QB Lamar Jackson should take advantage of every opportunity that he sees this week vs CINNCY. Then complement it with td passes and the rout is on. The BALT DEF should play like there’s no tomorrow and should have some turnovers. Don’t be surprised if BALT scores a DEF td. They are good at that. L13 BALT (H) vs CINNCY, BALT 8-5 SU but 4-7-1 ATS 1NL. L22 BALT vs CINNCY, BALT 16-14-1 ATS 1NL. L18 BALT vs CINNCY, FAV 9-7-1 ATS 1NL. BALT 22-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. BALT 26-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 15-16-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 4-14 ATS as DIV HOME FAV 4>pts. BALT 1-8 ATS as DIV HOME FAV 8>pts. BALT 2-11 ATS as a HOME FAV >10pts vs .400<opp. BALT 7-21-1 ATS L29 @HOME off non-div gm. CINNCY 7-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. CINNCY 22-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 30-43 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 15-31 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CINNCY 8-5 ATS AWAY v opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-12 ATS vs .600>opp. CINNCY 2-7 ATS AWAY vs .600>opp. CINNCY 5-2-1 ATS as a DOG in 1st of BB RG’s. CINNCY 0-4 ATS AWAY vs >.600 div opp. CINNCY 2-13 ATS in gms 5-9 when <.500 off HOME gm. BALT sometimes likes to go easy but not against div rivals. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow will be coming in with a lot of confidence off his 1st win but, BALT will snap him back into reality as they run for daylight against a terrible CINNCY D-LINE. This has blowout written all over it. Don’t be surprised if BALT rushes for 200 yds. Lay the points here as BALT gets back to business.
THE PICK: BALT-13 3 STARS
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (0-4), (0-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS JAGS+6 ½
Finally, someone listened and fired HOU GM/HC Bill O’Brien. It should have been done after the collapse in the playoffs @KC last season and O’Brien would not have had a chance to wreck this team further. Romeo Crenel is the interim HC and should stay that way because he is not the answer at HC for this team either. HOU has had a tough schedule so far but, with the talent on this team they should have gotten better after last season, not worse. It almost looks like they have regressed. LW, they were @HOME vs a desperate MINN team that was unexpectedly 0-3 too. I liked MINN and they didn’t disappoint. HOU QB Deshaun Watson needs a coach that could develop and tone his skills not let them go to waste. MINN was up 17-6 but let HOU back in it before they slammed the door 31-23. It was 31-16 when HOU tried their comeback with a td that only gave HOU hope but no cigar. HOU was stopped on a 4th & goal at the MINN 5yard line and that ended the game. LW, JAGS were involved in a shootout @CINNCY. But in the 3rd qtr JAGS DEF went south and CINNCY put together 3 scoring drives that had CINNCY leading 27-13. JAGS tried coming back but to no avail and lost 33-25. JAGS need to start playing better as a team because that win vs INDY in wk 1 feels like it was a long time ago. Since then, JAGS have lost three games that they should have won. L13 JAGS @HOU, JAGS 3-10 SU but 7-6 ATS. L16 JAGS vs HOU, ROAD 12-4 ATS. JAGS 8-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. JAGS 29-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 17-25 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. JAGS 26-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 3-14 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. HOU 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. HOU 16-19-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 13-20-1 AT as a FAV in OCT. HOU 11-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. HOU 4-12-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 11-10 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 22-11-3 ATS as a <9pts vs .600<opp. HOU 8-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.750< non-div opp. JAGS always play HOU tough no matter what. Both of these teams are desperate for a win but if HOU gets the win, it will be by a small margin. Both of these teams need major adjustments and their DEFs have been playing awful. HOU #32 RUSH DEF. JAGS should run all day vs HOU. This should be another high scoring affair with a lot of yards on the ground. Take the JAGS and the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS+6 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 11th, 2020 4:00pm
Miami Dolphins (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS MIA+8
On SNF, SF QB Nick Mullins showed everyone why he is not an NFL QB. SF was driving nicely in the 2nd qtr and deep in PHILLY territory, Mullins throws an INT with no one around him and no pressure. Had SF scored a td there it changes the momentum of the game. Then, the SF DEF went to sleep after they took a 14-8 lead in the 3rd qtr. SF didn’t help its cause when Mullins threw a PICK6 that sort of sealed the game for PHILLY. SF was a BIG FAV and didn’t deliver. CJ Beathard relieved Mullins and drove SF to a td but it was a little too late. SF was able to get the ball back but could not get any further than PHILLY’s 33yd line. Final score PHILLY 25-20. This was a winnable game for SF but Mullins couldn’t get the job done. LW, MIA had a big order playing @HOME vs SEA. SEA is a tough team and I didn’t think MIA would keep up with SEA. The final score doesn’t tell the whole story. SEA took a commanding 31-15 lead late in the 4th qtr and MIA did their best at a hurried comeback but, to no avail. The final score was SEA 31-23. I liked SEA laying the 6 ½ even on the road because I felt that the MIA DEF was no match for Wilson & CO. Wilson connected with nine receivers. But, MIA QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had an off day with 2INTs that led to 2tds by SEA that didn’t help the MIA cause. Fitzpatrick is playing his heart out and usually takes what the DEF gives him. MIA may not win but they are competitive. MIA 13-2 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RG’s. MIA 32-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 34-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 19-12 ATS L31 as a non-div DOG 7>pts. MIA 9-1 ATS in gms 5-9 when <.500 & AWAY vs non-div opp. SF 5-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. SF 41-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 29-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 8-14-1 ATS L23 as a FAV. SF 8-14-2 in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 3-7-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 9-1 ATS in gms 5-9 as a FAV vs AFC. SF has many injuries and has not yet found a rhythm. The only two teams that they have beaten have been the NYG & NYJ. That is not impressive. Whether Jimmy G comes back for this game is up in the air but if he does not, don’t expect to see Nick Mullins behind center. CJ Beathard will probably start until Jimmy G is ready. MIA keeps things close and this is a spread that MIA should cover. Even if SF is up by 14 pts late look for Fitzpatrick and CO. to get a back door cover. Look for a better game from Fitzpatrick & CO. Take MIA and the points here.
THE PICK: MIA+8 5 STARS
Indianapolis Colts (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS CLEVE+2 ½
LW, CLEVE rushed for 307 yds @DAL. No, that’s not a misprint. The score was CLEVE 41-14 going into the 4th qtr. DAL tried playing cathchup but to no avail and lost 49-38. CLEVE is going from playing the worst DEF to the best DEF. INDY #1 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF & #4 RUSH DEF. The CLEVE DEF was playing well and stopping DAL at every turn until the 4th qtr when they were playing prevent DEF. CLEVE brought out all the trick plays and DAL was fooled on all of them. CLEVE has a winning record but look who they have beaten, WASH, CINNCY & DAL. They are 3-9. Mayfield may have a lot of confidence after playing DAL but he is now facing a team that doesn’t give up much. LW, INDY slowed down CHI in a big way. After blowing out NYJ I felt that they wouldn’t win @CHI and that it would be a much closer affair. CHI QB Nick Foles was frustrated how the INDY DEF shut him and the CHI OFF down. CHI only managed 1td in a cathchup role. I didn’t realize how good the INDY was and I thought Foles could overcome it, he couldn’t. L6 INDY vs CLEVE, INDY 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS. INDY 12-10-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 9-6 ATS & 1NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. INDY 29-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 31-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 8-7 ATS L15 AWAY vs AFC NORTH. INDY 13-9-1 ATS L23 as a AFV 3<pts. INDY 12-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs opp off BB SU wins. CLEVE 17-24-1 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. CLEVE 22-16-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEVE 26-36 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEVE 11-7 ATS L18 off a non-conf ROAD gm. CLEVE 3-12-1 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEVE 3-13 ATS off DD SU win. CLEVE 2-14 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. CLEVE 0-7 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEVE 2-6-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CLEVE 1-10 ATS in gms 5-9 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. CLEVE 6-0 ATS off BB SU wins. (last vs non-conf) I can almost guarantee that CLEV will not score 49pts this weekend vs INDY, unless INDY has a total meltdown. INDY CB Xavier Rhodes is playing with a chip on his shoulder after MINN cut him after last season. I’m sure they wish they still had them in their secondary. The INDY OFF has been playing well and INDY QB Philip Rivers is taking what the DEF gives him. The INDY DEF will stymie the CLEVE OFF. Mayfield will have a bad game with a few turnovers. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: INDY-2 ½ 5 STARS
NY Giants (0-4), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (1-3), (0-4) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS NYG+9 ½
LW, the DEF for DAL was a total dud. DAL gave up 307 yards rushing vs CLEVE. CLEVE brought out all the tricks and DAL was caught lead footed at every turn. Don’t look at DAL QB Dak Prescott’s stats because they were mostly in garbage time after CLEVE had built a commanding 41-14 lead going into the 4th qtr. The DEF for DAL has been atrocious and if it wasn’t for one botched onside kick by ATL, DAL would be 0-4. DAL #30 TOT DEF w/#31 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF. I said at the beginning of the season that DAL was short on depth and they are proving it. Plus, DAL HC Mike McCarthy is not proving to anyone that he is some great coach. It is looking more and more like it was his fault back in GB. LW, NYG played tougher than anyone expected @LAR. They were in it to the end until NYG QB Daniel Jones threw an INT with :52 at the LAR 5yard line. The DEF for NYG was keeping the LAR at bay for most of the game and only allowed a td early in the game and another one very late in the game. But the OFF has to do better with opportunities that they get. Jones has to make better choices and be able to read what is coming at him on DEF. This is a game that NYG can win hence the spread. L13 NYG @DAL, NYG 5-8 SU & 5-7-1 ATS. L6 DAL vs NYG, DAL 6-0 SUATS. L22 DAL vs NYG, ROAD 11-10-1 ATS. NYG 6-5-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. NYG 4-4-2 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RG’s. NYG 36-19-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 25-18 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. NYG 28-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 11-6 ATS L17 as a DIV DOG 4>pts. NYG 13-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >5pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 19-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 19-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 7-8 ATS L15 vs <.400opp. NYG 11-2 ATS in gms 5-9, <.500 ROAD DOG. NYG 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs .600<opp. NYG 1-4 ATS L5 after scoring 10<pts. DAL 3-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. DAL 32-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 39-34 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 18-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. DAL 3-9 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DAL 12-0 ATS L12 as a DIV FAV >2pts. NYG are actually playing better than DAL with what they have. It is just a matter of time before they win a game and this is probably a good game for them to win or keep very close. If DAL gets it together, I don’t think they will blow NYG out. If NYG loses, they will keep it close. This is a very big spread for this game and neither team is turning any heads in a good way. By the way, a little revenge factor former DAL HC Jason Garrett is the OC for the NYG and would love to take it to them. He knows this team very well. The DEF for DAL has shown that they are not on the same page and that no one is stepping up. After coming close vs LAR, NYG may actually get the win here. DAL has a winning streak vs NYG but NYG has a chance to stop it and start their own. Take the points.
THE PICK: NYG+9 ½ 5 STARS
Denver Broncos (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS TBD
THIS GAME DOESN’T HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION GOING FORWARD BUT, IF THERE IS A SPREAD TO REPORT IT TOO WILL BE ANALYZED.
THE PICK: TBD
Sunday October 11th, 2020 8:20pm
Minnesota Vikings (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (4-0), (4-0) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS MINN+7
LW, MINN was playing another horrible team, HOU in HOU. But they managed to get a win that they needed very badly just to save some morale on the team. MINN RB Dalvin Cook had a very good game with 27 touches for 130 yds, 2tds and 0fumbles. But, to expect him to do that @SEA will be very tough. The stats for MINN are bloated because they were playing a terrible team. MINN didn’t have any turnovers but HOU doesn’t create any. With SEA they will not be as lucky. LW, SEA went into MIA and did what they had to do. SEA never relinquished the lead and it was 31-15 very late in the 4th qtr when MIA tried a comeback and scored a dummy td to make it SEA 31-23. SEA scores when you think they are just going to run out the clock or take it easy. They play aggressively on both sides of the ball. SEA has sure hands receivers that are capable of big plays and QB Russell Wilson always puts it in there for them. L8 SEA vs MINN, SEA 6-2 SUATS. SEA since 2007, wk before bye, 10-3 ATS. SEA 18-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 22-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 14-18 ATS as a HOME FAV 7>pts. SEA 2-5 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500< opp. SEA 2-10 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs <.500 non-div opps. SEA 17-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. SEA 10-7 ATS as a FAV on SNF. MINN 0-6 ATS on SNF vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MINN 10-3 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. MINN 18-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MINN 28-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 7-8 ATS as a DOG on SNF. MINN 7-10 ATS AWAY on SNF. MINN 0-6 ATS AAY off SU DOG win. MINN 9-5 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 8-5 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 21-4-1 ATS vs non div opp after SU loss under HC Mike Zimmer. Granted playing at SEA is tough enough but in PRIMETIME SEA becomes like a super team. Plus, right now they are playing on a mission. MINN is playing to be competitive. Wilson will light up the MINN secondary because this is the best QB they will have seen since wk 1 with Aaron Rodgers. Plus, we all know how poorly MINN QB Kirk Cousins plays in PRIMETIME. Don’t be surprised if SEA scores 40 points in this game and it may be over by halftime. If there are turnovers in this game they will prove costly by both teams but I like SEA in PRIMETIME & @HOME. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SEA-7 5 STARS
Monday October 12th, 2020 8:15pm
LA Chargers (1-3), (1-1-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-0-2) ATS @ NO Saints (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS LAC+7 ½
LW, LAC was @TB and was up 24-7 in the 2nd qtr and had a chance to nail the coffin shut but they didn’t. TB scored three unanswered tds and took a 3rd qtr lead of 28-24. LAC took the lead 31-28 with a long pass from LAC QB Justin Hebert to Jalen Guyton but LAC did nothing in the 4th qtr as TB scored 10pts for a final of TB 38-28. LAC DEF did nothing to protect the lead and then the LAC OFF didn’t respond when they needed to after TB came back. I liked LAC+7 because I thought the game would be closer but it ended up being a PUSH. I thought LAC should have won the game but they didn’t make any adjustments and gave up the game. Plus, the LAC DEF gave up 5passing tds, not good at all. Now they face a NO team that is looking to get back into a rhythm of their own. LW, NO was @DET and they were laying 4pts @DET. DET DEF is terrible and NO was looking to bounceback after loosing to GB. DET took an early lead 14-7 even though Drew Brees threw a gift PICK6. But, NO stormed back with 21pts in the 2nd qtr as DET was stymied. Also, Stafford threw an INT in the endzone which didn’t help DET’s cause. NO was up 35-14 in the 3rd qtr, coasted and won 35-29. DET couldn’t really rush vs NO DEF and Stafford was forced to carry the load in an attempted catchup role. NO should take command of this game going forward as LAC will not be able to defend vs the run. NO 9-4 ATS since 2007 before the bye. NO 31-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 36-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 12-7 SU & 10-9 ATS on MNF. NO 1-4 ATS L5 on MNF. NO 35-32-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 10-12 ATS L22 @HOME vs AFC. NO 4-11 ATS as a non-conf FAV 3>pts. NO 1-6 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV >4pts. LAC 7-6-1 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. LAC 29-35-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 18-26-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAC 24-7-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG >4pts since 2003. LAC 1-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 8-2-1 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs NFC. LAC 2-11 SU & 2-10-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH since 2008. LAC couldn’t stop TB’s rushing game and NO has an established rushing game that will tire the LAC DEF out. Plus, NO DEF will be ready for LAC runners and put it all on LAC QB Justin Hebert’s shoulders. I like NO here in the dome because they need a game where they blow someone out and this is the game to do it. Lay the points.
THE PICK: NO-7 ½ 5 STARS
Tuesday October 13th, 2020 7:00pm
Buffalo Bulls (4-0), (2-1-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-0), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS TENN+3 ½
LW, BUFF went to LV and did what they had to do. They forced turnovers and made stops and LV was playing catchup the whole game. I thought LV would play it closer after having beaten NO @HOME and then having some sort of bounceback play after getting beat @NE. BUFF is playing well and BUFF QB Josh Allen has 12tds & only 1INT. The running game needs to pick it up a little but WR Stefon Diggs who was picked up in the off season in a trade from MINN has become a welcome addition to BUFF. He has established himself as the #1 receiver that BUFF was lacking which puts less attention on the rest of the BUFF receivers getting open. BUFF #3 TOT OFF w/#2 PASS OFF. WR Cole Beasely has been a real safety net for Allen. This guy seems to catch everything thrown his way and helps out Allen when he is in trouble. TENN is coming off an unscheduled bye due to COVID. TENN 7-6 ATS since 2007 wk after bye. Before that they were @MINN where they barely won after trailing MINN for most of the game. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill has settled in as the #1 QB with no one competing with him but he has no real #1 receiver to throw to. The TENN OFF relies very heavily on RB Derrick Henry which opposing DEFs can plan against. Also, there is no real #2 RB that can give Henry that needed rest from time to time. When he is out, it is definitely a pass play. L7 TENN vs BUFF, TENN 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. BUFF 7-9 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 11-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. BUFF 23-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 30-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 5-0 ATS vs conf opp w/rest. TENN 3-11 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. TENN 31-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 30-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 12-15-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. TENN 7-1-1 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 9-2 ATS vs .600>opp off STA win. TENN 8-1 ATS in gms 1-4 vs opp off ATS win. BUFF is becoming a better well rounded team and improving in areas that they had been lacking in recent years. TENN is not as well rounded because they have won their three games by a combined 6pts. They could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0. How TENN responds after being hit by COVID is another concern as it is not as easily to bounce back as people may think. This may be a low scoring game but BUFF should win by a td with their DEF limiting RB Derrick Henry. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BUFF- 3 ½ 3 STARS