2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 7
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 7 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 22nd, 2020 8:20pm
NY Giants (1-5), (3-3) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1), (2-3) ATS, (0-2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS NYG+3 ½
LW, PHILLY was down @HOME to BALT 17-0 @halftime and 30-14 in the 4th qtr before they made an unsuccessful run @BALT to end the game 30-28. PHILLY had scored a td and a 2pt conversion to make it 30-22 but a big blunder on the 2pt conversion after a td made the score 30-28 ended any realistic hopes for PHILLY to take the game to OT. BALT played laydown after they built a 30-14 lead. BALT was just toying with PHILLY but PHILLY got the backdoor cover. I liked PHILLY+7 ½ and I thought they would play BALT a little tougher @HOME but the score didn’t reflect the real story. PHILLY has a team that is very bruised and battered. RB Miles Sanders left the game vs BALT and did not return. If he doesn’t play in this game, RBs Boston Scott & Cory Clement will see a lot of action. TE Zach Ertz may be out joining Dallas Goedert. PHILLY has injuries in every group on both sides of the ball. LW, NYG @HOME barely beat WASH. NYG QB Daniel Jones continues to make crucial mistakes that cost NYG dearly. NYG was up 13-10 and driving at the WASH 7yard line and instead of either eating the ball for a sack or throwing it away, Jones tossed it up for an INT that WASH was able to eventually turn into 3pts. At the end of the game, had WASH just kicked an extra point instead of going for it, this game might have gone the other way in OT. Final score NYG 20-19. But it was ugly. L13 PHILLY(H) vs NYG, PHILLY 9-4 SU & 5-7-1 ATS. L26 PHILLY vs NYG, ROAD 16-9-1 ATS. L26 PHILLY vs NYG, DOG, 16-9-1 ATS. PHILLY 6-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. PHILLY 32-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 40-36 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 21-24 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 7-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PHILLY 6-1 ATS L7 on TNF. NYG 37-19-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 26-19 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. NYG 29-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 7-5 ATS on TNF. NYG 5-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYG 8-4 ATS L12 after WASH. NYG 20-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp ff SU loss. NYG 20-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 7-1 ATS in gms 5-9 off SU win vs div. Even with all the injuries to PHILLY, they are still better than NYG and they should find a way to beat them and put up a lot of points. The PHILLY DEF needs to put pressure on Jones that he either coughs up the ball or throws it up for grabs. They cannot let this guy beat them. He is not that good. Lay the points here as PHILLY should win with some home cooking and some trick plays.
THE PICK: PHILLY-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 1:00pm
Detroit Lions (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS DET+3
LW, ATL finally won a game and it was vs an inept MINN @MINN. ATL had a lot of help in this one because MINN QB Kirk Cousins threw 3INTS in the 1st half that resulted in 17pts for ATL. Before this game, ATL had only 2INTS the whole season. The score was 20-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there as MINN tried a comeback but wasn’t even close in a 40-23 ATL win. ATL WR Julio Jones had a field day with 8 catches for 137 yds & 2tds. LW, DET was @JAGS and this game was a runaway too. DET was up 17-3 at halftime and JAGS tried a 2nd half comeback with an effort that didn’t even come close, losing 34-16. DET used a combination of rushing and passing to keep JAGS OFF off the field and away from their game. DET rushed for 180 yds while RBs Adrian Peterson & D’Andre Swift combined for 156 yds & 3tds. Stafford had 1INT in the 2nd half but it didn’t amount to any JAGS points. JAGS didn’t even sack Stafford 1x as he was able to complete passes to ten different receivers. L8 DET vs ATL, ATL 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. ROAD 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. DET 6-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DET 31-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 37-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 9-7 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 4-8 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. DET 10-1 ATS L11 vs .333<opp. DET 11-0 ATS in gms 5-9 as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. DET 11-2 ATS AWAY in gms 5-9 vs opp off SUATS win. DET 7-1 ATS AWAY vs .333< opp. ATL 26-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 21-25 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 10-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 0-7 ATS L7 before TNF. ATL 6-10 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. ATL 12-22 ATS L24 as a HOME FAV. ATL 10-0 AT vs <.500 non-div opp off DD SU win. ATL 9-0 ATS in gms 5-9 off non-div DD ATS AWAY win. ATL doesn’t put much pressure on opposing QBs. The ATL DEF only has a combined 8 sacks in the first six games. If Stafford can sit in the pocket with no pressure, he will pick your DEF apart. The ATL secondary will be a sitting duck for Stafford and he should go off like he did @JAGS LW. This game could be a shootout because neither team’s DEF is lighting it up. DET doesn’t get to the QB either with a combined 6sacks in their first 5 games. ATL #31 TOT DEF & DET #21 TOT DEF. But I like the fact that DET can get back to .500 and I like that they are getting points here. This could be a high scoring game.
THE PICK: DET+3 3 STARS
Cleveland Browns (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1), (4-1-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-0-1) ATS CINNCY+3
LW, CINNCY @INDY had their chances. In fact, CINNCY was up 21-0 in this game and lost 31-27. That is pretty bad. The DEF for CINNCY is pretty bad, CINNCY #25 TOT DEF. This is a game that CINNCY should have definitely won, period. QB Joe Burrow is learning and will only get better with better players around him. I liked CINNCY +8 @INDY because I felt that INDY may take CINNCY for granted. Being up 21-0 and losing shows that the CINNCY DEF is terrible and can be torched even in a comeback. LW, CLEVE was demoralized @PITT 38-7. It was 24-0 before CLEVE found the endzone but, you could turn your sets off there. Everything that could go wrong for CLEVE did and CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield was benched during a lousy performance @PITT. This game could certainly have made a statement for CLEVE in the right direction but, it didn’t. Mayfield has been taking a lot of criticism this week for the poor performance @PITT. In all, the whole CLEVE team was embarrassed and should bounceback this week. L13 CLEVE @ CINNCY, CLEVE 3-10 SU & 5-7-1 ATS. L17 CLEVE vs CINNCY, CINNCY 9-5-3 ATS. L26 CLEVE vs CINNCY, DOG 14-9-3 ATS. L13 CLEVE vs CINNCY, CINNCY 9-2-2 ATS. CLEVE 2-6 ATS L8 as a ROAD FAV. CLEVE 6-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CLEVE 16-25-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEVE 11-6 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CLEVE 12-11 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CLEVE 6-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU loss. CLEVE 8-7 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. CLEVE 1-13 ATS after scoring 10 or less pts. CLEVE 0-8 ATS off SU DIV loss vs>.500opp. CINNCY 10-8-1 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 10-4 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. CINNCY 22-34-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 31-44 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 15-32 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CINNCY 16-15-1 ATS after an SU loss and playing @HOME. CINNCY 1-8 ATS in gms 5-9 vs opp allowed 35>pts. Usually, when a team gets blownout, they come back stronger the next week. Mayfield has something to prove or otherwise Case Keenum will be the starter and Mayfield’s days in the NFL will be numbered. He needs to have a big day here and what else could he have hoped for but a DEF that is terrible. Mayfield has to be calm and take what the CINNCY DEF gives him. There is plenty of talent on the CLEVE OFF and he needs to use it. This game should be a blowout in CLEVE’s favor. I would be shocked if CINNCY gives CLEVE a game after just missing @INDY. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CLEVE-3 3 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0), (4-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-0), (3-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS TENN+2
LW, TENN needed OT to beat a HOU team that was not giving up and going toe to toe with TENN @TENN. This was a wild one and the final score was TENN 42-36. TENN 1-5 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. TENN RB Derrick Henry rushed for 212yds on 22 carries & 2tds, including a 94yd run for a td. The guy is a beast and can’t be stopped. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill threw 30/41 364 yards, 4tds, 1INT & 1lost fumble. Tannehill was able to distribute the ball to nine different receivers. Tannehill has certainly turned himself around after coming over from MIA. He has given this team new life and his own career a boost by playing much better than he did in MIA. LW, PITT Mauled CLEVE @PITT. It wasn’t even a game, 38-7. The PITT DEF was all over CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield that he was benched and PITT still continued their domination. Mayfield didn’t help his cause by throwing 2INTs in the 1st half including one that was a PICK6. The score was PITT 24-7 at halftime and another game that you could turn your sets off there. The PITT DEF sacked Mayfield 4x and the CLEVE OFF was never allowed to get on track. CB Minkah Fitzpatrick had the PICK6 which set the tome early in this game. The PITT DEF already has 8INTS & 24 sacks. Plus, they have a secondary that makes plays. PITT WR Chase Claypool has been a pleasant surprise and has become a lethal weapon on OFF. L9 PITT vs TENN, PITT 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. PITT 17-23 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 5-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. PITT 33-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 48-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 9-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts. PITT 6-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. PITT 8-20 ATS vs non-div conf opp. PITT 12-1 ATS off SU win v snon-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 14-2 ATS in gms 5-9 when .500> vs non div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 10-0 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. TENN 13-16-1 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. TENN 31-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 33-29 ATS @HOM in OCT. TENN 4-14 ATS after scoring 35>pts. TENN 5-13 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 8-1-1 AS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 10-2 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. TENN 6-0 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. The TENN DEF gives up a lot TENN #26 TOT DEF and the PITT OFF is loaded with weapons. RB Derrick Henry will get his touches but the PITT DEF will be ready with guys who will step up and tackle. It should be a good game but PITT will prevail by a td. Lay the points here as PITT keeps on rolling.
THE PICK: PITT-2 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ NO Saints (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS CAR+7 ½
NO is coming off a bye and before that, they were @HOME & barely beat LAC in OT, 30-27. This was a game that NO should have lost because they were not playing as they should have. Maybe they were taking LAC & QB Justin Hebert for granted. Well, they were lucky to escape. NO 9-4 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. LAC was up 20-10 and NO had to make a comeback in the 2nd half just to get to OT. WR Michael Thomas should be in the lineup after being suspended for the last game. He has recovered from his high ankle sprain and should be ready to go. As for CAR, they played catchup @HOME vs CHI to no avail. Why CAR was the FAV vs CHI, I don’t know. But, I liked CHI @CAR and CHI prevailed. CAR has been playing better than people expected and CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater is getting comfortable in the position. CAR is getting used to life without RB Christian McCaffrey. But when he returns this team will only be better. L13 CAR @ NO, CAR 6-7 SU but 8-5 ATS. L26 CAR vs NO, CAR 14-12 ATS. L14 CAR vs NO, CAR 4-10 ATS. CAR 32-20 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 36-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 19-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. CAR 10-6 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 8-1-1 ATS before TNF. CAR 5-8 ATS before ATL. CAR 10-2 ATS in gms 5-9 off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. NO 31-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 37-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 15-24 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. Everyone is picking NO in this game but CAR always plays NO tough. NO has not been blowing teams out like they used to but they can still score points. I like NO to win this game but I think the game will be a lot closer. CAR has to play an almost perfect game and should play better than they did LW vs CHI. They cannot afford to have any turnovers because NO will take advantage of it with easy points. Since there aren’t any fans in the dome, they shouldn’t be distracted. Take the points here.
THE PICK: CAR+7 ½ 3 STARS
Buffalo Bills (4-2), (2-3-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ NY Jets (0-6), (0-6) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS NYJ+13
LW, NYJ @MIA were beaten 24-0. MIA could beaten them 40-0 but, MIA still has to play NYJ one more time and they don’t want to give NYJ any incentive the next time around. NYJ can’t do anything right and the clock is ticking on HC Adam Gase & DC Greg Williams. Oh yeah Williams will be gone too because he is a bad influence. To say that NYJ couldn’t do anything right @MIA is an understatement. Cleaning house for NYJ is on the to do list, once the season is over. Now they face a BUFF team that has lost two straight games and needs a confidence builder to get back on track. What better way to build a team’s confidence then play the NYJ? BUFF had their chances @HOME vs KC but not only did the DEF disappoint but, BUFF QB Josh Allen needs to play better. BUFF needs, and I have been saying this for a while, they need to get their run game going. WR Stefon Diggs can’t do it alone. He has added a big target to this OFF but they need at least a reliable RB. BUFF 6-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV. L13 BUFF @NYJ, BUFF 6-7 SU but 8-5 ATS. L22 BUFF vs NYJ, FAV 11-10 ATS 1PICK’EM. L27 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 15-12 ATS. BUFF 23-34-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 30-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 21-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. BUFF 13-8 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 10-0 ATS off BB SU losses vs .500>opps. BUFF 14-0 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses vs .500>opps. NYJ 20-18-1 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 29-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 31-36 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 29-16 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NYJ 16-18-1 ATS L35 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 14-4 ATS as a DOG >1pt after scoring 7<pts. NYJ 6-2 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ 28-8 ATS in gms 5-9 as a DOG vs div opp. NYJ 1-7 ATS L8 after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. BUFF needs this game in a big way to get on track. NYJ have shown that they are terrible on both sides of the ball and can’t stop anyone or even get into the endzone. NYJ QB Sam Darnold will probably be out again for this game as a precaution because no one is going to want damaged goods after the season if eh gets injured. Stoic QB Joe Flacco will probably starting again. He has looked awful and his skills have definitely taken a level that is lower since his high flying days at BALT. This game has blow out written all over it s BUFF gets the motor running and NYJ get run over. Usually, this is way too many points to lay on the road but, NYJ are pretty bad and have given up. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BUFF-13 5 STARS
Dallas Cowboys (2-4), (0-6) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Washington Redskins (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS PICK’EM
Is there any surprise that this game is a PICK’EM? Both of these teams haven’t exactly been beating anyone up except themselves. LW, WASH was @NYG and was given some gifts courtesy of NYG QB Daniel Jones but WASH HC Ron Rivera decided to go for 2pts instead of kicking the fg and going to OT. Well, WASH didn’t get it and they lost 20-19. Not exactly a battle of heavyweights but a win is a win and Rivera, as usual, blew it. They call him “Riverboat Ron” but gamblers mostly lose and so does Ron. Anyway, WASH is in a total rebuild but I don’t think Rivera will be the guy to turn this ship around. If there isn’t any kind of improvement with this team and WASH ends up going 3-13, he may be gone. LW, on MNF DAL was @HOME vs ARZ. It was totally awful for DAL as they lost 38-10. Turn your sets off at the half because it was ARZ 21-3 and there was no comeback or miraculous win for DAL. Top it off with DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott losing 2fumbles and DAL QB Andy Dalton throwing 2INTS and DAL was out of it early. The DAL DEF gave up 261 yds rushing to ARZ with 3TDS. In this game, DAL incurred more injuries to their O-LINE and to the DEF which will make them more vulnerable to games like this going forward. WASH is going into their bye and they could use the time to regroup and recover. WASH 4-9 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. L13 WASH(H) vs DAL, WASH 4-9 SU & 6-7 ATS. L22 WASH vs DAL, WASH 12-10 ATS. L22 WASH vs DAL, DOG 13-9 ATS. L12 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 8-4 ATS. WASH 30-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 21-21 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. WASH 7-13-1 ATS after NYG. WASH 6-10 ATS off BB SU losses. DAL 12-4 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. DAL 27-30-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 18-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. This is a game that no one cares except DAL & WASH fans. I never thought I would say this about this matchup but, right now both of these teams are terrible and going nowhere. This may be one of those sloppy games where a fg at the end decides it or one team blows out the other team. WASH is desperate for a win having lost 5 straight and not having won since wk 1. But DAL has so many injuries that WASH might be able to steal one here. DAL is in need of a bounceback after looking so awful on MNF. DAL will correct their OFF woes and beat up on WASH.
THE PICK: DAL PICK’EM 3 STARS
GB Packers (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS HOU+3 ½
LW, GB started out nicely and in control @TB with a 10-0 lead. Then GB QB Aaron Rodgers threw an inadvertent PICK6 and the momentum of the game totally changed. It almost seemed like Rodgers was shell shocked and lost his focus because he threw another INT. GB would never recover and they were beaten badly by TB, 38-10. What started out nicely for Rodgers & GB turned into a nightmare. Rodgers had one of his worst games as a PRO going 16/35 160 yards 0tds, 2INTS and was sacked 4x. This game was TB 28-10 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. LW, HOU was in a wild one with TENN @TENN. It was TENN 21-10 @halftime but, HOU came out swinging and scored 2tds in the 3rd qtr to take the lead. TENN found themselves and in the 4th qtr both teams scored 2tds to send this game into OT. TENN took the ball on the opening possession and drove the length of the field for a td and ended the game 42-36. HOU 0-4 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. It was a wild one but HOU gave up 263 yds rushing. Even if you take away TENN RB Derrick Henry’s 94 yd td run, HOU still gave up 157 yds rushing, which is still a lot. HOU #32 RUSH DEF. HOU still has a lot of problems and should look to a HC that can cultivate the talent and bring this team to the next level. HOU #30 TOT DEF. The DEF has not been doing its job and against Rodgers they will have their hands full. L4 GB vs HOU, GB 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. GB 4-11 ATS 1nl in 2nd of BB RG’s, GB 33-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 32-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 16-20 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. GB 15-17 ATS L32 vs AFC. GB 2-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs non-div opp. HOU 6-11 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. HOU 10-2-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. HOU 17-19-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 17-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 9-4 ATS L13 after allowing 35>pts. HOU 2-8 L10 vs .750>opp. HOU 1-6 ATS vs non conf opp off SU loss. GB is on a bounceback here and needs to get their ship back on track. HOU has talent but is facing a GB team that was riding high and was given a dose of reality LW. When you are looking at a guy like Rodgers who is spending the week adjusting his game as is the rest of GB, that is a scary thought. Lay the points here as GB gets back on track.
THE PICK: GB-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 8:20pm
Seattle Seahawks (5-0), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ARZ+3 ½
LW, ARZ thoroughly embarrassed DAL @DAL, 38-10 on MNF. This game was over at halftime 21-3. Even without DE Chandler Jones, ARZ was able to sack the DAL QB 3x. They also forced 2 fumbles from DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott and 2INTS from DAL QB Andy Dalton. These 4 turnovers were turned into 24pts by ARZ. You cannot win when you do that. On top of that ARZ rushed the ball for 261 yards which will be hard to repeat this week. SEA #7 RUSH DEF. ARZ QB Kyler Murray was very lucky going 9/24 for 188 with 2tds, 0INTS. He made his nine passes count. But this week vs SEA, that probably will not fly. SEA doesn’t turn the ball over much. SEA has a +6 turnover differential which is tied for #1. ARZ has a turnover ratio of 0. LW, SEA was on their bye. SEA 6-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. But before that they were home vs MINN and should have lost. But MINN let SEA get back into it and SEA went the length of the field which they seem to always do, and scored a td in the last minute of the game to win. SEA was a heavy FAV but did not cover. L14 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 12-1-1 ATS. L13 SEA @ARZ, SEA 7-5-1 SU & 7-4-2 ATS. SEA 20-17-1 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 28-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 22-34 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 19-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SEA 2-8 ATS L10 before SF. SEA 10-8 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SEA 6-6 ATS AWAY on SNF. ARZ 15-15-1 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 8-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ARZ 34-41 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 33-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. ARZ 19-23 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ 3-16 ATS after allowing 10<pts. ARZ 1-5 ATS off DD ATS win vs .700< non-div opp. ARZ 4-16 ATS @HOME on SNF. ARZ 5-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. SEA with some rest & S Jamal Adams back in the lineup, ARZ would have to play an A+ game to win this game. I like for SEA to come out strong in this one and I don’t think ARZ will get four turnovers from SEA like they did @DAL. Kyler Murray cannot go 9/24 vs a SEA team and expect to win. Plus, teams after a blowout win can’t seem to find their OFF the next week and struggle. SEA keeps rolling here and ARZ comes back down to Earth. Lay the points.
THE PICK: SEA-3 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 4:00pm
KC Chiefs (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS DEN+9 ½
So the rich get richer. RB Le’Veon Bell will be playing in this game @DEN after being picked up last week. Look for him to make something happen this week. LW, KC was cruising @BUFF on MNF. BUFF could have gotten the back door cover because KC was leading late in the game and the KC DEF was lax but, BUFF QB Josh Allen gave KC a gift INT and KC easily covered. LW, DEN surprised everyone @NE. They didn’t score any tds but kicked 6fgs to win 18-12. NE never got their OFF going but the DEF for DEN held and they ran away with the win. DEN had built an 18-3 and watched as NE tried to come back but, too little too late. DEN QB Drew Lock didn’t have such a great game in his first game back with 2INTS but the DEN DEF was able to stymie the NE OFF with 4 sacks, 2INTS & 1 fumble recovery. DEN RBs Phillip Lindsey & Royce Freeman combined for 127 yards. RB Melvin Gordon should be in the lineup this week after missing the game @NE. DEN needs to keep the KC OFF off the field and in turn make the KC DEF tired. L13 DEN(H) vs KC, DEN 6-7 SU & 5-8 ATS. L22 DEN vs KC, 11-11 ATS. L23 DEN vs KC, ROAD 14-9 ATS. L26 DEN vs KC, DOG 16-10 ATS. L9 DEN vs KC, KC 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS. DEN 11-7 ATS as a HOME DOG. DEN 8-4-2 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. DEN 34-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 26-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 21-17 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 14-4 ATS L18 off SU DOG win. DEN 0-5 ATS L5 before LAC. KC 20-12 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. KC 10-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. KC 26-17 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 25-28-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 20-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. Division games are tough and KC is always facing a tough one in the AFC WEST. DEN QB Drew Lock got the cobwebs off in his 1st game back and knows what he needs to do this week. He should be ready and excited to play this game. DEN does have the OFF tools. Lock needs to take what the KC DEF gives him. KC is always tough but they do occasionally lose a game. This is going to be a tight game but it will be closer than the spread suggests. Take the points here and don’t be surprised if KC wins in a squeaker.
THE PICK: DEN+9 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 4:00pm
SF 49ers (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS SF+2 ½
LW, NE didn’t look good at all @HOME vs DEN. Sloppy game by NE as NE QB Cam Newton had 2INTS which led to 3pts by DEN & 1fumble which led to another 3pts by DEN. It was a sloppy game by both NE & DEN as DEN could only kick fgs and not get into the endzone. The running game for NE seems to rely heavily on Newton which is an accident waiting to happen. NE gave up 135 yd rushing to DEN. DEN kicked 6fgs to win 18-12. I liked NE in this game off the bye but, Newton came back after 2 weeks looking like an unprepared rookie. This is an experiment that doesn’t look like it is working. NE is under .500 for the first time since 2002. LW on SNF, SF came out fast and held on @HOME vs LAR who looked lame. If you only watched this game all weekend, you would have thought SF was undefeated and LAR was winless. The score was 21-6 at halftime and LAR couldn’t get in any kind of OFF rhythm. SF looked sharp after being beaten badly by MIA the week before. SF QB Jimmy G had 3tds & 0INTS. SF used a balanced attack to keep the LAR DEF guessing. SF had 37 rushes & 33 passes. They need to do the same vs NE. SF 13-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. SF 18-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SF 23-40 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 1-3 ATS in gms 5-9 as a RD vs AFC. NE 10-3-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. NE 35-29-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 49-34-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 27-12-3 ATS L42 (H) vs non-div. NE 17-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .500>opp. NE 9-0 ATS in gms 5-9 vs NFC opp. NE 8-0 ATS in gms 5-9 <.500 vs .500>non div opp. This is a game that brings Jimmy G back to the team that drafted him and then traded him away when Brady said he was still playing. Jimmy would like to show HC Bill Belichick that he made a mistake in not retaining him and signing him. NE is the FAV in this game because they are NE but in reality they should be the DOG. This is not the same ole reliable NE. Newton hasn’t established anything with NE yet and at times he looks lost. He is still finding his way and things are much different under Belichick than they were under HC Ron Rivera. Take the points here as SF should win outright.
THE PICK: SF+2 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 4:00pm
Jacksonville Jags (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (1-4), (2-1-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (1-1) ATS JAGS+8
LW, JAGS were never in their game @HOME vs DET. Jags were behind 17-3 and played unsuccessful catchup the whole game. JAGS rushed for a paltry 44yds while they gave up 180 yds rushing to DET. If their plan is to get high draft picks, they are certainly succeeding at that because after winning the first game of the season, they have lost five straight. In their last two games, they haven’t even looked competitive. There is almost no running game to speak of, JAGS #29 RUSH OFF and JAGS are relying mostly on the shoulders of a very inexperienced QB Gardner Minshew, who has a gunslinger’s mentality. Meanwhile LAC were on their bye, LAC 5-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, they took NO @NO to OT but lost 30-27. This was very tight game and LAC QB Justin Hebert showed that he will not be intimidated. He threw 4tds and 0INTS but in the 2nd half the NO DEF tightened up and LAC was only able to score 1td in the 2nd half before NO won in OT. LAC has been very competitive and is very close to being a much better team. Hebert has shown an almost veteran mentality but not trying to force the ball where it will not fit. L10 LAC vs JAGS, LAC 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS. LAC 28-24 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 29-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 34-33-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 27-4 ATS L31 vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 1`3-4 ATS L17 @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 19-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 13-3 ATS as a HOME FAV >4pts vs non-div opp off BB Su losses. LAC 8-4 ATS L12 before DEN. JAGS 29-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 26-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 3-10 ATS L13 vs AFC WEST. LAC is due in a big way and should roll over the JAGS with no problem. LAC is desperate for a win after being so close @NO before their bye. JAGS are really bad and can’t stop anyone. They are going into their bye and may already be there. JAGS 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. This has blowout written all over it and LAC should have a field day @HOME. Philip Rivers had a great record when he was with LAC vs JAGS. Hebert should continue the trend. Lay the points here as LAC rolls.
THE PICK: LAC-8 5 STARS
Sunday October 25th, 2020 4:00pm
TB Buccaneers (4-2), (3-2-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ LV Raiders (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS LV+3
LW, TB @HOME spotted GB a 10-0 lead before turning on the power and exploding for 38 straight points to win 38-10. The DEF played a big part in the game and they turned GB QB Aaron Rodgers into a neutralized opponent. Rodgers had one of his worst games as a PRO after starting out the game pretty well. The turning point was the PICK6 that Rodgers threw and GB never recovered. TB took it from there and truned the game into a blowout. LV is coming off a bye. LV 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they shocked KC 40-32 @KC. It was 24-24 at halftime but LV exploded in the 2nd half to a 40-24 lead where KC was playing catchup. KC almost never plays catchup as everyone they face usually ends up playing that game. But LV turned the tide and watched as KC couldn’t come back. LV HC Jon Gruden has this team playing at a different level. They have already beaten NO & KC. However, they have lost to NE & BUFF. These are games that they can win too. LV needs to be more consistent to take the franchise to the next level. They have the personnel and the coaching staff. Now they face a TB team that is coming off a blowout win and may feel a little over confident vs LV. LV 16-22-1 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. LV 2-7 ATS @HOME vs NFC SOUTH. LV 37-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 25-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 4-11-2 ATS L17 @HOME vs NFC. LV 6-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. TB 13-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. TB 4-5 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. TB 19-34-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 17-31-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 22-18-2 ATS L42 AWAY vs non-div. TB 8-2 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .500>opp. TB 4-6-2 ATS L12 off DD SU win. So far the trend on SNF has been with the DOGS and LV has a very good shot at winning this game outright. Carr has to take what the TB DEF gives him and has to play his game. LV DEF has to make some stops and create some turnovers. The LV DEF has to put pressure on Brady otherwise he will pick you apart. I like the HOME team here because Gruden knows that if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. It should be a good game.
THE PICK: LV+3 3 STARS
Monday October 26th, 2020 8:15pm
Chicago Bears (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ LA Rams (4-2), (3-2-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS CHI+5 ½
LW on SNF LAR @SF, LAR looked lost. LAR had their chances but couldn’t make the most of anything and didn’t look in sync at all. The score was SF 21-6 at halftime and it didn’t look like these teams were on the same page. In the 2nd half the LAR DEF was making stops but, the LAR OFF couldn’t get going and could only add a td very late in the game. The final score was SF 24-16 and it wasn’t even that close. SF QB Jimmy G threw 3tds 0INTS and wasn’t even sacked 1x. It almost seemed like there was no pressure on him and he was very confident in the pocket. LAR was playing catchup the whole game and couldn’t catch up. LW, CHI was @CAR and took a 20-6 lead in the 3rd qtr. This game almost could have gone the other way in the 3rd qtr after some miscues by both teams but, the DEF for CHI made stops in the 4th qtr that gave CHI the victory. CHI sacked CAR QB Teddy Bridgewater 4x while CAR sacked CHI QB Nick Foles 0x. CHI held on for a 23-16 win @CAR. L8 LAR vs CHI, CHI 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. LAR 26-18 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 30-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 3-7 ATS on MNF. LAR 6-6 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. LAR 4-10 ATS L14 @HOME vs NFC NORTH. LAR 5-14 ATS vs opp of SU DOG win. CHI 8-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. CHI 34-22-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 30-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 7-4 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. CHI 7-9 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. CHI 0-8 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 4-15 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 12-12 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. CHI 9-0 ATS in gms 5-9 off non-div vs .500>opp who won >8gmes LY. CHI 2-9 ATS in gms 5-9 .500> vs non-div opp off AWAY gm. CHI 6-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 0-6 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI QB Nick Foles may have some revenge in mind because LAR is a team that gave up on him some years ago. The CHI DEF has not been that consistent this season but have come up big when they needed to be. They came back & beat TB when they were down 13-0. With this LAR team you don’t really know what to expect going forward. They should have easily beat SF but, SF easily beat LAR. Which team shows up? I like LAR to win this game in a bounceback but CHI keeps it closer than the spread. Look for DE Khalil Mack to make a big play. Take the points here.
THE PICK: CHI+5 ½ 5 STARS