2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 8
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 8 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 29th, 2020 8:20pm
Atlanta Falcons (1-6), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS ATL+2 ½
LW, CAR @NO played up to par as I expected. CAR was +7 ½ and I knew they weren’t winning the game @NO but, they were going to keep it close. NO is not blowing teams out and CAR is better than people think. CAR lost but kept it competitive and close but lost by 3pts. CAR couldn’t get their running game going with a paltry 37 yds but Bridgewater was almost perfect going 23/28, 254 yds 2tds, 0INTS and 0turnovers. This week CAR gets RB Christian McCaffrey back. He should help out the run game tremendously. LW, ATL lost another game after being up late in the game. Don’t blame it on RB Todd Gurley, who scored a td late in the game instead of falling down just short of the endzone. Blame it on the lousy ATL DEF who couldn’t stop DET QB Matthew Stafford from marching down the field with no timeouts to score the winning td with :00 on the clock. I loved DET getting points in this one because the ATL DEF is so bad that they couldn’t stop a PEE WEE team. ATL #31 TOT DEF & #31 PASS DEF. Bridgewater & CO. should have a field day here. L13 CAR(H) vs ATL, CAR 6-7 SUATS. L19 CAR vs ATL, HOME 12-7 ATS. L17 CAR vs ATL, DOG 9-8 ATS. CAR 34-23 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 27-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CAR 21-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 20-22-2 ATS L44 as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 0-6 ATS L6 @HOME on TNF. CAR 2-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. CAR 4-12 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 10-2 ATS in gms 5-8 when .500> vs div opp. CAR 1-8 ATS as a HOME FAV >1pt vs .<500opp. ATL 33-23-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 29-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 28-21 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 11-5 ATS on TNF. ATL 8-3 ATS vs NFC SOUTH on TNF. ATL 3-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. ATL 8-3 ATS on TNF w/revenge. ATL 5-17 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 2-11 ATS AWAY w/revenge off SU loss. ATL 7-0 ATS as a div ROAD DOG vs opp off BB SU losses. ATL 2-9 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss. Usually, you would say that there may be a revenge factor after one division team has beaten another and there is a rematch but, ATL is just so bad and lifeless that CAR should take care of business in this one. I don’t expect RB McCaffrey to have a big game but he will contribute and the DEF will have to zone in on him. This is the first and only PRIMETIME game for CAR scheduled for this season so CAR HC Matt Rhule will want to show everyone that CAR is no pushover. Also, everyone will see just how bad the ATL DEF really is. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CAR-2 ½ 5 STARS
Sunday November 1st, 2020 1:00pm
NE Patriots (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (5-2), (2-4-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-1-1) ATS NE+3 ½
LW, another nightmarish game for NE. NE was @HOME vs SF. I liked SF because of the psychological factor for Jimmy G coming back to the team that traded him. He hasn’t been playing lights out either but, that’s another story. NE QB Cam Newton has been atrocious and he was bad in this game too. He was pulled after having 3INTS. NE lost 33-6. This game was over at halftime 23-3. NE needs to spread the ball around better and get everyone involved. NE has had a Brady hangover and they need to get back on track just to be respectable. So far, the only impressive game that NE has played was vs LV. NE has to run better and use guys not named Newton. Let him throw the ball. LW, BUFF was playing catchup @NYJ. Yeah, that’s not a misprint. BUFF was down 10-0 to NYJ and was trying to find themselves. They were a heavy FAV on the ROAD and BUFF was only able to score 6fgs for an 18-10 win over NYJ. This was not impressive at all. BUFF QB Josh Allen was the leading rusher for BUFF which tells you who BUFF is relying on for their ground game. BUFF WR Stefon Diggs left the game with an injury and is questionable for this game. We know the history of NE beating BUFF but this is a new game and Brady isn’t there but the NE DEF is. L13 NE @BUFF, NE 12-1 SU & 9-3-1 ATS. L26 BUFF vs NE, NE 23-3 SU & 16-8-2 ATS. L22 NE @ BUFF, NE 18-4 ATS. L33 NE vs BUFF, NE 30-3 SU. NE 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NE 28-18 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NE 35-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 26-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 10-0 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 9-9-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 20-6 SU & 15-9-2 ATS L26 after an SU loss. BUFF 6-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB Hg’s. BUFF 35-21 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 23-27-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 28-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 13-9 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 4-8 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 8-0-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <.250opp. BUFF 1-10 ATS in gms 5-8 off SU win vs opp off non-div gm. NE has a better support of RBs than does BUFF. NE needs to get their ground game going so that Newton can be comfortable in the pocket. NE needs to play their game like Brady is back there and let Newton throw the ball. I have said this all season that BUFF needs a running game to take pressure off of Allen and they have not listened. BUFF #29 RUSH OFF. NE has the DEF that can turn the game around. They need to show up. NE will put all the pressure on Allen because BUFF doesn’t have a run game. This game will be tight and turnovers will be tremendous. Take the points here as NE squeezes out a win.
THE PICK: NE+3 ½ 3 STARS
Tennessee Titans (5-1), (3-3) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1), (4-1-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-0-2) ATS CINNCY+5 ½
LW, TENN lost by a missed fg @HOME to PITT. I liked PITT in the game because I knew they would go toe to toe with TENN and get up to stuff TENN RB Derrick Henry. PITT got lucky in the end as TENN missed a tying fg. But with that, they covered. It should have been a blowout by PITT but Big Ben had 2INTS in the 2nd half after leading 27-7 in the 3rd qtr. Instead of burying TENN, PITT got sloppy and let TENN get back into the game. LW, CINNCY @HOME was leading CLEVE 34-31 with about a minute left. But with no DEF and CLEVE being able to move to the ball in a shootout, CINNCY lost as CLEVE scored a td with :11 seconds left. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was 35/47 406 yds, 3tds, 1INT and had 1lost fumble. With no O-LINE, he has done pretty good. Oh yeah, he was sacked 4x. How many sacks will TENN have this week? CINNCY #28 RUSH DEF. CINNCY gave up only 82 rushing yds to CLEVE. Henry will have that and more all by himself. L7 TENN vs CINNCY, CINNCY 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. TENN 7-10 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 33-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 28-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TENN 2-11 ATS in gms 5-8 vs AFC opp off SU loss. CINNCY 7-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CINNCY 10-8-2 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 7-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. CINNCY 31-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 43-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 16-15-2 ATS after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 1-12 ATS vs .600>opp. CINNCY 4-6 ATS after CLEVE. CINNCY 6-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs opp off SU loss. CINNCY 1-8 ATS in gms 5-8 after allowing 35>pts vs opp off HOME gm. CINNCY 4-0 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. CINNCY 1-8 ATS @HOME after SU DIV loss. CINNCY has given up 37 & 35 pts to CLEVE in two games. What do you think they will gi9ve up vs TENN who are on a bounceback? TENN RB Derrick Henry is going to run wild after only rushing for 75 yards LW vs PITT. He was stopped a few times by PITT secondary guys who I said were going to step up. Well, this week, CINNCY DEF doesn’t have anyone to step up and he is going to run wild. Lay the points here as TENN gets back on the horse and runs away with it.
THE PICK: TENN-5 ½ 5 STARS
LV Raiders (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (5-2), (3-3-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS LV+2 ½
LW, I thought LV had the wherewithal to keep it competitive @HOME vs TB. After all, they have beaten NO & KC. But mistakes on their own and the DEF being a little lax against a pumped up Tom Brady led to a TB blowout, 45-20. LV was competitive for 3qtrs and it was close at TB 24-20 but Brady took it took the next level and the LV DEF was gassed. LV DEF didn’t even sack Brady 1x. LV HC Jon Gruden should just forget about this one and just look if LV can learn and move on. LW @CINNCY, CLEVE barely beat CINNCY, again. CLEVE lost WR Odell Beckham for the season with a torn ACL. But, CLEVE QB Baker Mayfield orchestrated a td drive in the last minute of the game to win 37-34. However, the spread was CLEVE-3 and a PAT that was missed made it a PUSH. I liked CLEVE even though CINNCY may have been looking for revenge after losing earlier in the season to CLEVE 35-30 on TNF. But, CINNCY has no DEF and Mayfield had an almost perfect day going 22/28 297 yds, 5tds, 1INT, 0 sacks & 0fumbles. CLEVE only rushed for 82 yds and a CINNCY DEF that is terrible. Two wins vs CINNCY is not that impressive. LV is mad and will not be pushed around this week. Mayfield will not be able to have his way this week. L9 LV vs CLEVE, CLEVE 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. LV 8-10 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. LV 34-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 35-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 29-29 ATS L58 as a ROAD DOG. LV 3-12 ATS L15 before LAC. CLEVE 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CLEVE 14-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEVE 11-12-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEVE 21-16-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div since 2003. CLEVE 1-11 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off home gm. LV is off a loss and on a bounceback where on paper they are better than CLEVE. The CLEVE DEF is terrible. CLEVE #30 PASS DEF. LV QB Derek Carr needs to be patient and take what the CLEVE DEF gives him. He has weapons and should exploit the CLEVE DEF like crazy. Mayfield is easily baited and HC Gruden should lay some traps because Mayfield is riding high and will probably try to make plays out of nothing. The DEF for LV has to create some turnovers after getting none vs TB. Take LV and the points here.
THE PICK: LV+2 ½ 5 STARS
Indianapolis Colts (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS DET+3
LW, DET @ATL delivered. Bad teams make bad mistakes and people shouldn’t blame ATL RB Todd Gurley for scoring that td. They should blame the ATL DEF who let DET QB Matthew Stafford & CO drive down the field with 0timeouts and score a td with :00 on the clock. He delivered. However, he did it against a DEF that was terrible. It should not have come down to the wire like it did. This week he will face a DEF that is a little better. INDY #2 TOT DEF. DET has played well against teams not in their division. But they need to be consistent and keep on winning. DET will need to spread the ball around against a DEF that will force you to make mistakes. Stafford needs to take what the INDY DEF gives him. INDY is coming off a bye. INDY 9-3-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. INDY has lost a couple of games that they should have won. They lost @JAGS & @CLEVE. They have won vs MINN, NYJ, CINNCY & @CHI. So far, the only impressive win was CHI and we’ll see how they do the rest of the season. But INDY QB Philip Rivers can be pressured into making mistakes. He is not mobile and if DET puts pressure on him, he will commit turnovers that will cost INDY the game. He has had only 1fumble this season, so he’s due. DET 10-17-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. DET 33-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 25-47 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 16-24-1 ATS L41 (H) vs non-div. INDY 12-11-1 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 30-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 36-20 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 13-10-1 ATS L24 as a FAV 3<pts. There is still a lot of pressure on DET & HC Matt Patricia to turn around this season and win games. This is a winnable game for DET because INDY hasn’t beaten anyone and DET has playmakers that will spread the OFF around. DET picked up DE Everson Griffen from DAL and I’m sure he would like to make an instant impact with his new team. Look for him to make some plays and take DET plus the points at HOME as Rivers commits some turnovers and gives the game away to DET.
THE PICK: DET+3 5 STARS
Minnesota Vikings (1-5), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ GB Packers (5-1), (5-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS MINN+6 ½
LW, GB Took care of business @HOU like I knew they would. GB QB Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sacked 1x and the HOU DEF created 0turnovers. On top of it, GB was up 21-0 at halftime and coasted to a 35-20 win. It was my pick of the week and it was easy as GB was on a bounceback after losing @TB. Rodgers & CO are on a mission and shouldn’t be worried about any doubters. LW, MINN was on a bye. MINN 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they were hammered @HOME by ATL, 40-23. MINN was never in that game and I thought they would bounceback after the pretty good showing @SEA. But, they were lame. This season has been a big disappointment for MINN and there may be some house cleaning for this team, come the off-season. MINN RB Dalvin Cook is questionable for this game with a groin injury that he sustained @SEA. Without him, the OFF takes a step backwards because QB Kirk Cousins has no one to rely on and take some of the pressure off. L13 GB(H) vs MINN, GB 8-3-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS. L27 GB vs MINN, HOME 15-11-1 ATS. GB 26-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 34-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 28-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 15-3 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm GB 11-2 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. MINN 21-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. MINN 28-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 29-20 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 9-5 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 8-5 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. To say that MINN has been a big disappointment this season is an understatement. GB is revving ahead just at the right time and beating up on MINN is just the ticket. The DEF for MINN has been terrible as well. MINN #28 TOT DEF w/MINN #29 PASS DEF. Rodgers should be able to carve up this DEF once again as he did in wk 1. Lay the points here as GB sweeps the 2020 series.
THE PICK: GB-6 ½ 5 STARS
NY Jets (0-7), (1-6) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ KC Chiefs (6-1), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS NYJ+19 ½
LW, NYJ @HOME were leading BUFF 10-0 before they lost 18-10. NYJ DEF held BUFF to 6fgs & 0TDS. Granted at times BUFF has looked great beating LAR and then terrible getting blown out by TEN & losing to KC. But they barely beat NYJ and NYJ played well considering that they were a huge DOG @HOME. But the NYJ DEF stopped BUFF when it needed to and denied them from the endzone. Let’s face it, this season has been a disaster for NYJ. NYJ QB Sam Darnold threw 2INTS and was sacked 6x. In five games, Darnold has been sacked 18x. The NYJ O-LINE better play better this week. KC is coming off a blowout win @DEN. This game was a walk in the park for KC because on top of everything, DEN QB Drew Lock had 2INTS which ones was a PICK6. Another was turned into a td. There was kickoff for a td by KC and a fumble was turned into a fg by KC. That’s 24 points by KC because of miscues by DEN. This game was KC 24-9 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. By the way, KC RB Le’veon Bell should have more touches this week after being used sparingly in his first game with KC after coming over from NYJ. L7 KC vs NYJ, KC 3-4 SU but 5-2-1 ATS. NYJ 26-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 33-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 3-12 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. NYJ 17-18-1 ATS L36 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 1-11 ATS L12 after BUFF. NYJ 4-15 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 1-10 ATS AWAY off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 2-7 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. KC 7-7 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. KC 29-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 25-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 18-14-1 ATS L33 vs AFC EAST. KC 12-7 ATS as a non div FAV >8pts. KC 3-8 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts. KC 2-7 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. KC 0-6 ATS as a HOME FAV 7>pts after scoring 35>pts. KC 2-5 ATS as a DD FAV vs .400,opp. KC 2-9 ATS @HOME vs <.500 opp off BB SU losses. KC 8-0 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. This is the NYJ SuperBowl. If they can’t get up for this game and they get blown out completely, then HC Adam Gase should be fired right after the game. If this game is competitive and KC takes NYJ for granted, then we’ll have a game where NYJ will surprise KC and the NYJ will cover the spread. I am thinking the latter because NYJ don’t have a prayer to win but, they do have a chance to keep it closer than the spread suggests. What does NYJ have to lose? Take the points here and hope that HC Adam Gase has some brains.
Due to the fact that on Friday 10/30/2020, NYJ have announced that their 2 top WRs Jamoson Crowder & Breshad Perriman will not be available for this game, I am changing my pick to KC-19 1/2.
THE PICK: KC-19 ½ 5 STARS
LA Rams (5-2), (4-2-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-3), (4-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW on MNF @HOME, the DEF for LAR showed up and stymied the CHI OFF. CHI did not score an OFF td. LAR have been tough to figure out because you don’t know which team will show up. LAR RBs ran all over the CHI DEF which helped QB Jared Goff pick his spots. This game was never in doubt as LAR were leading 10-3 at half and won 24-10. LAR DEF sacked CHI QB Nick Foles 4x and forced 2INTS. LW, MIA was on a bye. MIA 8-4 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that, they were @HOME & crushed NYJ 24-0. MIA could have scored 40 points easily but took it easy in the 2nd half as NYJ incompetence led the way. QB Tua Tagovailoa gets the start here after seeing some mop up duty in the game vs NYJ. There are some high expectations on Tua as he will hopefully someday lead MIA out of the basement in the NFL and back into relevance. But right now, he is being thrown into the fire vs an aggressive LAR DEF. LAR 12-11-1 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 6-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. LAR 25-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 21-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 8-2 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. MIA 20-12-1 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. MIA 32-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 33-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. This week MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa has an uphill battle vs a LAR team that is looking to control their own destiny in the NFC WEST. If Ryan Fitzpatrick were starting this game, I would give MIA a shot because Fitzpatrick is a veteran and knows what he will be looking at from LAR. Tua is new and the LAR DEF will show him things that he hasn’t seen and he will not recognize them. LAR will bum rush him at times as a welcome to the NFL. Lay the points here as LAR rolls.
THE PICK: LAR-3 ½ 5 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0), (5-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS PITT+4
LW, PITT got a lucky break. They were playing @TENN and TENN missed a game tying fg that would have had the score 27-27. PITT won the game 27-24 and they covered, -2. I liked PITT in that game because I knew they would bottle up TENN RB Derrick Henry. They did and he only rushed for 75 yards. For others that would be a good day. For him, it was just average. PITT did their job vs a team that rushes a lot. Well, they are going to have to repeat the process again this week. Big Ben has been healthy and it shows. But vs TENN he did have 3INTS which is the most he has had all season. He probably will look to not repeat that this week. BALT is coming off a bye. BALT 9-3 ATS 1NL since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, they barely held on @PHILLY. In that game, they took a 30-14 lead and watched as PHILLY scored a 2 tds but screwed up the 2nd 2-pt conversion that would have tied the game. BALT so far has had an easy schedule. Their five wins have been CLEVE @HOU, @WASH, CINNCY & @PHILLY. Their only loss was vs KC. This is really the only the 2nd game of the season for BALT vs a worthy opponent. L13 BALT(H) vs PITT BALT 8-5 SU & 6-6 ATS 1NL. L26 PITT vs BALT, BALT 13-10-2 ATS 1NL. L27 PITT vs BALT, DOG 15-8-3 ATS 1NL. L24 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 15-7-2 ATS. PITT 8-6 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB RG’s. PITT 30-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 22-16 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 31-23 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 5-11 ATS L16 AWAY in NOV. PITT 15-1 ATS L16 as a DOG vs >.500opp. PITT 12-1 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 14-0 ATS as a DOG <7pts vs >.500opp. BALT 33-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 38-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 30-24 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 5-14 ATS as a DIV HOME FAV 4>pts. BALT 5-11 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. These games are always a battle no matter what the records are of the two teams. PITT is riding high and needs to make a statement. Usually these games are very close but in the last few years the games have been of a wider score. There is a lot of talent of OFF for PITT & Big Ben will use all of it to keep BALT guessing. This is the 1st game of 2020 that PITT is the DOG and getting points. Turnovers will be crucial and the game will be decided on whoever doesn’t turn the ball over and who scores when they have the ball. I like PITT to keep things close and win it in the end. Take PITT here.
THE PICK: PITT+4 5 STARS
Sunday November 1st, 2020 4:00pm
LA Chargers (2-4), (3-1-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-0-2) ATS @Denver Broncos (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS DEN+3
LW, LAC was @HOME vs JAGS. LAC built a 16-0 lead and it looked like they would run away with the game. But 2tds by JAGS & a mistake by LAC and it was 21-16 JAGS. I liked LAC in this one and I felt that LAC would score 40 points. Lo & behold, LAC QB Justin Hebert & CO took control of the game to score 39 pts and put a little clamp on JAGS to win 39-29. But a win is a win and it wasn’t decided until the 4th qtr. LAC QB Justin Hebert looks good for a rookie and should have a nice career in the NFL but LAC players are not quite their and they need a few more guys to be winning some of these games. They haven’t been blown out and they keep games close. LW, DEN had a shot at keeping it close @HOME vs KC. But with all their mistakes and a kickoff run for a td by KC that led to 24 KC points, DEN never had a chance. They were blown out 43-16. DEN QB Drew Lock was manhandled by KC but the LAC DEF should be easier to handle. L13 DEN(H) vs LAC, DEN 7-6 SU but 3-9-1 ATS. L26 DEN vs LAC, LAC 14-11-1 ATS. L20 DEN vs LAC, 10-10 ATS. L26 DEN vs LAC, ROAD 17-8-1 ATS. L26 DEN vs LAC, FAV 13-12-1 ATS. DEN 11-8 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. DEN 7-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. DEN 41-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 23-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 27-24 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. DEN 25-24-1 ATS after an SU loss. DEN 2-7 ATS as a DIV DOG >1pt off DD SU loss. DEN 11-1 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG off div gm. LAC 9-10-2 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 25-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 34-20-1 ATS AWAY in NIV. LAC 24-26 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 19-8-1 ATS before LV. LAC 0-7 ATS in gms 5-8 after scoring 35>pts vs <.500opp. DEN has multiple injuries but still have guys in their backfield who can give other teams trouble. RB Phillip Lindsay left the game with a concussion but Melvin Gordon & Royce Freeman are good to go. DEN had 4 turnovers in the last game so I see them making corrections and cutting down on turnovers. LAC will win this game but they will do it in nail-biting fashion that goes down to the wire. After all, they have only beaten CINNCY & the JAGS. Take the HOME team here and the points.
THE PICK: DEN+3 3 STARS
NO Saints (4-2), (2-4) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS CHI+4
On MNF, the CHI OFF looked pretty bad and the LAR DEF looked pretty good. I liked LAR to win but I felt it would be a closer game. The loss of CHI RB Tarik Cohen has put all the pressure on RB David Montgomery. So far it doesn’t look good because of the terrible CHI O-LINE. The O-LINE for CHI has not done their job. CHI QB Nick Foles was sacked 4x vs LAR and it seemed like he was pressured every time he tried to set up in the pocket. CHI did not score an offensive td vs LAR. CHI may have a winning record but who have they beaten? DET, ATL & NYG are gimmees. They were impressive on TNF vs TB and the game vs CAR was a good win. But, the loss vs INDY was winnable and the loss vs LAR was terrible. LW, NO was @HOME as a big FAV vs CAR. I liked CAR+7 ½ because I felt that NO would win but CAR would keep it close. NO got the win 27-24 but CAR had a missed fg very late in the game that would have tied the game and possibly have sent it to OT. Even without RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR played it tough. Bridgewater is better than Foles. L8 NO vs CHI, NO 5-3 SU & 4-2-2 ATS. NO 7-6 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. NO 16-15 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. NO 35-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 38-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO HC Sean Payton 3-3 SU @CHI. NO 14-5 ATS L19 vs NFC NORTH. NO 10-1 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. NO 7-0 ATS L7 as a ROAD FAV vs NFC NORTH. NO 4-10 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. NO 11-3 ATS vs .666>conf opp. NO 2-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV <14pts vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. CHI 12-14 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. CHI 40-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 29-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 9-1 ATS in gms 5-8 off non-div vs .500>opp who won >8 gms last year. NO gave up a paltry 37 yds rushing to CAR and this is why I like NO in this game. CHI #32 RUSH OFF vs NO #4 RUSH DEF. CHI will not a get any yards on the ground and they will look to Foles to bail them out. NO has to rattle him little and he will fold. He is not a mobile QB, so any pressure will move the CHI OFF backwards. NO hasn’t had any games where they have blown anybody out and this is a game where they can make a statement because it is outside and it will be colder than the dome. They have to show everyone that the elements don’t bother them. Also, NO WR Michael Thomas is out but, NO is learning to play without him and not to rely on him so heavily. When he comes back, he will add to the OFF, not be the OFF. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NO-4 5 STARS
SF 49ers (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS SF+3
LW, SF blew out a very bad NE team @NE. Some of it had to do with Jimmy G coming back to NE and also that NE is not the same team that played last season. SF crushed NE 33-6 and it wasn’t much of a game as SF was up 23-3 at halftime and coasted the rest of the way. Jimmy G was 20/25 but had 2INTS. Two of Cam Newton’s INTS were turned into 10pts by SF. SF RB Jeff Wilson who rushed 17x for 112yds & 3tds suffered a high ankle sprain and will definitely be out for this game. LW on MNF, SEA was leading 34-24 @ARZ and then the roof caved in. After what seemed like a fg by ARZ, a costly mistake by a SEA lineman, ARZ got the momentum they needed to tie the game and win in OT. SEA SS Jamal Adams was supposed to be back for the game @ARZ but, should be back for this game and SEA could use him in a heartbeat. The DEF is so much better with him in the lineup. SEA 4-2 ATS since 2007 off an OT SU loss. SEA also needs to get their running game going because there will not be many games where SEA WR Tyler Lockett has 15 catches for 200 yds & 3tds. Plus, Wilson didn’t help SEA by throwing 3INTS. The passes need to better spreaded around. SEA was up in this game 27-14 at halftime but seemed to be sleep walking in the 2nd half as ARZ found the way to come back. L13 SEA(H) vs SF, SEA 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS. L16 SEA vs SF, SEA 11-4-1 ATS. SEA 25-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 31-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 32-38 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 10-4-1 ATS after losing SU AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 0-5 ATS L5 as a div HOME FAV <10pts. SF 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. SF 28-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 22-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SF 19-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 2-6 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. SF 2-8 ATS in gms 5-8 vs NFC WEST. SEA has to get back on track after losing a game they had really won late. They cannot make those kind of mistakes and let a team score so quickly. They also have to be a little more aggressive and take the ball out of the opposing OFF hands. This is an old fashioned NFC WEST showdown and these teams are very familiar with each other. SEA is on a bounceback and SF is coming off a blowout win. SEA will rebound here and take care of business. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SEA-3 5 STARS
Sunday November 1st, 2020 8:20pm
Dallas Cowboys (2-5), (0-7) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1), (2-5) ATS, (1-2-1) HOME, (1-3) ATS DAL+3 ½
LW, DAL took another big step backwards. When QB Dak Prescott went down, everyone thought DAL would be OK with QB Andy Dalton. DAL was pounded in the last two games. Then Dalton suffers a concussion in the game and goes out. He will probably miss this game as well. In comes QB Ben DiNucci, a 7th round draft pick out of James Madison. He didn’t do much better and DAL was walloped by WASH 25-3. I originally liked WASH but I thought that DAL would bounceback after the beating from ARZ. I was wrong and they played worse. DAL couldn’t do anything right. In this game, DAL QBS were sacked 6x. The O-LINE for DAL has given up 20 sacks in 7 games. The season was so promising for DAL, now it’s a big disappointment. On TNF, PHILLY was down 21-10 late in the 4th qtr and made a nice comeback @HOME vs NYG to win 22-21. The spread was PHILLY-7 ½ and I felt they should have blown NYG out. The DEF for PHILLY didn’t do anything right for 3 ½ qtrs. But, I think they took NYG for granted and they ended up playing for their lives. PHILLY QB Carson Wentz orchestrated 2 td drives that won it for PHILLY. But, it should not have come down to this. L13 PHILLY(H) vs DAL, DAL 9-4 SUATS. L26 PHILLY vs DAL, DOG 14-12 ATS. L26 DAL vs PHILLY, ROAD 16-10 ATS. PHILLY 9-4 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. PHILLY 31-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 31-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 40-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 6-7 ATS @HOME on SNF. PHILLY 11-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 8-3 ATS w/rest vs .600<opp. PHILLY 12-1 ATS in gms 5-8 <.500 vs opp off BB SU losses. DAL 11-4-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. DAL 27-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 20-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 29-20 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 14-17 ATS AWAY on SNF. DAL 15-12-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 2-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. PHILLY has to come out like gangbusters in this game. The PHILLY DEF will probably be facing a 3rd string QB who never thought that he would get into a game. PHILLY should bum rush this guy against a DAL O-LINE that is injured and bruised all day. Believe it or not PHILLY has a shot at 1st place in the weak NFC EAST. They also need to get their run game going as WASH did last week vs DAL. PHILLY RBs Boston Scott & Corey Clement should get it going against DAL #32 RUSH DEF. WASH rushed for a combined 208 yds and 1td while slamming DAL on both sides of the ball. Lay the points here as PHILLY has a party.
THE PICK: PHILLY-3 ½ 5 STARS
Monday November 2nd, 2020 8:15pm
TB Buccaneers (5-2), (4-2-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ NY Giants (1-6), (4-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS NYG+10
LW @LV, TB was leading 24-20 when they exploded for 3tds and ended the game up 45-20. LV was hanging around but TB QB Tom Brady took charge and took the game out of reach in the 4th qtr. Even though TB didn’t run the ball much, Brady was 33/45 369yards, 4tds, 0INTS and wasn’t even sacked. If you are going to win vs Brady you have to put pressure on him, which LV did not. Brady set up in the pocket and picked LV apart. When that happens it is over. LW, on TNF, NYG had a nice lead 21-10 in the 4th qtr but couldn’t hold it and PHILLY drove 2x for tds late in the game to win 22-21. Not only did they lose but NYG QB Daniel Jones was tackled by the turf monster with absolutely no one around him while he was rushing towards the endzone. NYG eventually scored on that drive but it is a fragment of the NYG season. NYG seemed to be playing well in this game but the DEF let NYG down late in the game as PHILLY QB Carson Wentz marched down the field 2x to score tds and steal the victory from NYG. L7 TB vs NYG, NYG 6-1 SUATS. TB 7-11-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. TB 5-5 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. TB 24-21 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 38-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 23-18-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 7-6-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. TB 7-2 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins vs conf opps. TB 5-6-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 0-5 ATS as a FAV on MNF off SU win. TB 6-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs.<500 non-div opp. NYG 9-20 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. NYG 20-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 17-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 10-1-1 ATS after TNF. NYG 7-1 ATS after PHILLY. NYG 3-7 ATS as a DOG on MNF. NYG 2-10 ATS as a non-div DOG on MNF. NYG 1-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYG QB Daniel Jones has become a turnover magnet and he seems to turn the ball over almost at will some times. TB DEF will certainly focus on Jones and pressure him to make mistakes. Brady always has a chip when he plays NYG, but now he has a team that is motivated just like him to win. Brady has a lot of choices to go to and the TB running game will get going too. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: TB-10 5 STARS
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