2020 NFL SEASON WEEK 9
2020 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 9 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 5th, 2020 8:20pm
Green Bay Packers (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ SF 49ers (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS SF+5 ½
LW, GB @HOME was surprised big time by MINN. MINN RB Dalvin Cook was a one man wrecking crew. He rushed 30x for 163 yds & 3tds. Then he caught 2passes for 63 yards and 1td. Needless to say, MINN won 28-22. GB RUSH DEF didn’t have any answers for Cook or any of the MINN OFF as MINN QB Kirk Cousins only threw the ball 14x connecting 11x. But, he made all of his passes count. GB was up in this game 14-7 but let MINN score 3tds on three straight possessions and GB was playing catchup the rest of the way to no avail. Rodgers was able to spread the ball around to 10 different receivers but the deficit was too deep because the GB DEF had no answer for Cook. LW, SF too was playing catchup @SEA. SF was actually up in this game for about four minutes then SEA scored 24 unanswered points for a 30-7 lead. But in the meantime, SF QB Jimmy Garrappolo went down with a high ankle sprain that will sideline him for a number of weeks and TE George Kittle broke a bone in his foot that will sideline him a number of weeks. QB Nick Mullins came in and played the catchup, garbage time role but, SF lost 37-27. Mind you that SEA was way ahead and their DEF is rated #32. L8 SF vs GB (incl playoffs), SF 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS. GB 14-20 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. GB 28-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 34-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 2-10 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. GB 9-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. GB 3-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. GB 3-13 ATS as a non-div conf/Dog 3<pts. GB 2-5 ATS after MINN. GB 22-8-1 ATS L31 after div gm. GB 17-4 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 2-10 ATS as a non div ROAD FAV 3<pts. GB 14-1 ATS as a FAV <8pts off div gm. SF 13-13-1 ATS L27 as a HOME DOG. SF 25-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 22-23 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SF 3-7 ATS on TNF. SF 3-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. SF 7-1 ATS in gm 9-12 off SUATS loss vs opp off HOME gm. SF 6-23 ATS @HOME in gms 9-12 vs opp w/revenge. These are two teams that certainly don’t like each other. Last season, SF with a full squad beat up GB pretty badly on National TV 37-8. The SF won again in the playoffs 37-20. Rodgers doesn’t forget things like that. Even though SF is banged up and looking at a season where they may not make it back to the playoffs after having played in the SuperBowl, Rodgers will look to bounceback in this one and spread the OFF all over the place and jam it down SF’s throat. Lay the points here as GB should be motivated. If GB Aaron Jones is playing in this game and he is able to get going, SF should watch out because this will give GB a balanced attack and SF will not know where the ball will be going. GB RB Jamaal Williams can get the job done too but, Jones is a punishing runner that defenders don’t like tackling. With SF banged up the way they are GB should win by at least a td.
THE PICK: GB-5 ½ 5 STARS Sunday November 8th, 2020 1:00pm
Denver Broncos (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (0-4) ATS DEN+4
LW, DEN @HOME spotted LAC a 24-3 lead. This game looked over as the DEN OFF could not get anything going and it didn’t look good. All of a sudden, the DEN OFF got going and the LAC DEF wasn’t putting pressure on like they did earlier in the game. Also, the DEN DEF was making stops. DEN held LAC to 2fgs while the DEN OFF scored 27 pts with the last td at :00 on the clock. DEN QB Drew Lock showed that he is capable of leading this team to a comeback win when it looked like it was next to impossible. However, the DEN DEF did give up 210 yds rushing to LAC which needs to be tweaked. LW, ATL went to CAR on TNF and was determined from the opening to win this game. Even though CAR was leading 14-6, ATL didn’t fold and put together drives that had CAR playing catchup to no avail. Hence ATL won 25-17 in a game that CAR looked flat on both sides of the ball but ATL played well. ATL QB Matt Ryan rushed for the most yards (27) in a game than he has since a game @TB in 2018. ATL still has a terrible PASS DEF and DEN should take full advantage of it. ATL #30 PASS DEF. ATL has a lot of guys on the team with high salaries and not enough output. There will be some changes in the off season. DEN 14-6 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. DEN 33-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 24-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 9-2 ATS AWAY vs <.250opp. DEN 11-0 ATS AWAY vs .250<non-div opp. DEN 14-5 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 7-9 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 4-6 ATS after LAC. DEN 7-2 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 6-0 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. DEN 1-8 ATS off div HOME win. ATL 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ATL 28-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 32-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 2-12 ATS in gms 9-12 when <.500 @HOME vs non-div opp. Last season when ATL started off badly but, seemed to end the season on a high note, there weren’t many changes in the off season. This off season there will be changes. DEN has the talent but, they have had some key injuries that have led to a losing season. I like this game to be close and has the chance to be high scoring. I also like the fact that DEN is getting more than a fg. DEN QB Drew Lock has to take what the DEF gives him. He did that in the game vs LAC and that is why they were able to come back and win. He needs to do the same @ATL. Take the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+4 3 STARS
Seattle Seahawks (6-1), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (6-2), (2-5-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (1-2-1) ATS BUFF+2 ½
LW, BUFF @HOME vs NE, BUFF got very lucky. NE was driving at the end of the game and NE QB Cam Newton fumbled the ball and was recovered by BUFF. BUFF won 24-21 but did not cover the -3 ½. I liked NE+3 ½ because I felt that NE would win outright. BUFF has only one win that has been impressive and that was almost a loss. They beat LAR after losing the lead late and they beat LV. Other than that, BUFF has beaten NYJ 2x, MIA & NE. They barely beat the NYJ a few weeks ago and were down 10-0 in that one but, came away with the 18-10 victory. It wasn’t that impressive. Now they play a high powered OFF. LW, SEA @HOME built a 30-7 lead vs SF after knocking out SF QB Jimmy G & TE George Kittles. The SEA DEF is pretty bad, SEA #32 TOT DEF. They let SF think they had a chance but SEA prevailed 37-27. SEA does have a high powered OFF, SEA #3 TOT OFF w/#3 PASS OFF. But they need to get their rushing game going for a more balanced attack. SEA 21-18-1 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 7-5-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. SEA 27-23 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 33-38 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 3-5 ATS before LAR. SEA 10-2 ATS l12 after SF. SEA 11-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SEA 2-13 ATS in gms 5-8, .500> vs .500>opp off div gm. SEA 2-13 ATS in gms 5-8 off SUATS div win. SEA 10-1 ATS off div HOME gm vs non-div opp. BUFF 13-17 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. BUFF 7-7 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB HG’s. BUFF 28-32-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BUFF 35-22 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 20-15-1 ATS as a HD vs non-div since 2003. BUFF 2-11-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 1-9 ATS in gms 9-12 .500> as a DOG vs opp off SU win. This game has the makings of a shootout because the SEA DEF is so bad. S Jamal Adams is projected to be back for this game and he gives the SEA DEF an instant pick me up. BUFF QB Josh Allen likes to run but LB Bobby Wagner will be on his tail and Allen will have to look for passes that have a better percentage of completion against a DEF that makes plays when you least expect it. SEA has proven that they can eat good teams, BUFF hasn’t. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SEA-2 ½ 5 STARS
Chicago Bears (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-2), (3-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS CHI+5 ½
LW, on a bounceback, TENN @ CINNCY laid an egg. I definitely thought that TENN was a better team than this. Granted I had them losing vs PITT the week before but, vs CINNCY? CINNCY has so many delinquencies that TENN should have exploited every one of them and walked away with it. But instead, TENN QB Ryan Tannehill reverted back to MIA Tannehill and TENN lost. Also, the DEF for TENN was atrocious. No sacks of CINNCY QB Joe Burrow? The TENN DEF is not that good. TENN #25 TOT DEF. But it was a total letdown. TENN DEF is overrated as they brought in veterans that did not pan out. LW, CHI showed that there was no letdown by them even though they lost @HOME in OT to NO, 26-23. CHI 4-5 ATS since 2007 wk after an SU OT loss. CHI was down by10pts and fought their way back to tie and go into OT. But there, they couldn’t get anything going and lost by a fg. CHI did find some sort of running game which takes a lot of pressure off of QB Nick Foles. Foles was able to spread it around to nine receivers which should help him this week @TENN. Foles needs to take what the DEF gives him and not try to force it in there. CHI 39-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 41-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 10-6 ATS L16 non-conf RG’s. CHI 5-9-1 ATS before MINN. CHI 4-8 ATS before MNF. CHI 0-9 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG <7pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 4-16 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 0-7 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. TENN 4-11 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. TENN 23-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 28-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TENN 0-11 ATS before TNF. TENN 0-8 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN gives up a lot of points even in their wins. The only game that they won by more than six points was the blowout of BUFF that was rescheduled to a Tuesday night. CHI is coming off two straight losses and needs to get their OFF going. The DEF also needs to create some turnovers and rush the QB. TENN RB Derrick Henry will get his yards but, CHI cannot let him take over the game. I like a close game here as TENN wins in a squeaker as both teams are coming off two straight losses and one has to give. Take the points here as CHI & TENN go down to the wire and it is decided by a fg.
THE PICK: CHI+5 ½ 5 STARS
Baltimore Ravens (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS INDY+2 ½
LW, INDY had a nice blowout win @DET, 41-21. I thought DET would keep it close after looking good vs ATL. Well, ATL is not INDY and I thought just maybe DET could take it up a notch and give INDY a run for their money. INDY was the one doing all the running as they rushed 39x for 119yds and 2tds. INDY QB Philip Rivers passed 23/33 262 yds, 3tds & 0INTS. He didn’t have any turnovers and DET was playing catchup all game to no avail. To top it off DET QB Stafford had 1INT & 1fumble that led to 14points and I’d say DET was done. LW, BALT got all they could handle @HOME vs PITT. I liked PITT in this game getting points and PITT won outright. BALT QB Lamar Jackson added to the loss with 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles which were turned into 14 PITT points. However, even with those miscues, BALT was leading 17-7 at the half. BALT lost the game in the 2nd half as PITT made crucial adjustments while BALT did not. BALT was still leading 24-21 in the 4th qtr but could not hang on and gave up a go ahead td to make the score PITT 28-24. BALT was driving late but on a 4th & 3 from the PITT 8, Jackson fumbled and it was recovered by PITT. He was stopped short but, fumbled on the way down while being tackled. That kind of killed it for BALT and PITT held on. However, BALT did rush 47x for 265 yds & 1td. BALT #1 RUSH OFF. Look for BALT to mix it up this week. L8 INDY vs BALT, INDY 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS. A little lopsided, don’t you think? BALT 16-12-1 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 5-8 ATS in 1st of BB RG’s. BALT 38-25 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 32-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 5-10 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. INDY 11-5 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. INDY 27-36-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 33-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 2-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 3-8 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 3-12 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. INDY 1-11 ATS vs .400>conf opp off SUATS loss. INDY 9-2 ATS in gms 5-8 @HOME vs .500>opp. INDY 0-6 ATS vs .400> cnon-div conf opp off SUATS loss. Look for BALT to get their run game going again this week. INDY #2 RUSH DEF. But, INDY hasn’t played anyone. PITT is great vs the run but look what BALT did against them. Lamar Jackson will have a much better game this week. This is a bounceback week for BALT and they need to keep pace with others in their conference. INDY hasn’t beaten one decent team. Their wins are against MINN, NYJ, CHI, CINNCY & DET. All losers, except CHI, who is fading fast. Rivers will have a bad game vs BALT because they will put crazy pressure on him and he will make mistakes. Big Ben will stay in the pocket until the very end and doesn’t make the kind of mistakes that Rivers makes, big difference. Lay the points here as BALT gets back on the winning track by at least a td.
THE PICK: BALT-2 ½ 5 STARS
Carolina Panthers (3-5), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (7-1), (6-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS CAR+10 ½
LW, CAR was a dud @HOME on TNF vs ATL. ATL is a terrible team but the CAR DEF made ATL look like a good team. CAR DEF didn’t make stops when they needed to and the CAR OFF didn’t take advantage of situations that were given to them. On four straight possessions by ATL, ATL scored 20points. CAR DEF made no stops until it was too late. CAR scored a total of 3pts in the whole 2nd half. CAR deserved to lose. LW, KC was @HOME & was 19 ½ FAV vs NYJ. KC QB Pat Mahomes hit 10 different receivers with passes. Mahomes threw for 5tds. KC scored tds on three out of four possession in the first half and took a 21-9 lead. It was over there because NYJ got nothing going in the 2nd half and KC won 35-9. I originally liked NYJ with points but changed my pick after learning that two WRs for NYJ would be out. Sure enough, NYJ QB Sam Darnold had no one to throw to and it was a blowout. KC is very good at scoring after turnovers and even though NYJ didn’t commit any turnovers, NYJ couldn’t get anything going. CAR 26-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 23-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 5-8-1 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 6-7-2 ATS before TB. CAR 1-7 ATS w/rest vs .500>opp. CAR 11-4 ATS off div gm vs .500>opp. CAR 6-1 ATS after ATL. KC 6-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HG’s. KC 7-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. KC 30-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 26-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 14-7 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. KC 4-8 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts. KC 3-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. KC 0-6 ATS as a HOME FAV 7>pts after scoring 35>pts. CAR is coming off a bad showing with almost no motivation. RB Christian McCaffrey is scheduled to be in this game and just him on the field for CAR will draw some attention of the KC defenders. Teams should be looking at the film vs LV where LV took control of the game on KC’s turf and won. CAR is a better team than their record states and need to have a good showing here. I like KC to win this game but I think CAR will keep it close. KC has not been using their running game and have been relying mostly on the arm of Mahomes. CAR needs to put pressure on him and cause him to make mistakes. If and when he makes a mistake, CAR needs to score tds. This game could be closer than the spread and CAR gets a backdoor cover.
THE PICK: CAR+10 ½ 3 STARS
Detroit Lions (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (2-5), (4-3) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (1-2) ATS DET+4
LW, DET was blown out @HOME by INDY 41-21. This game started out well for DET but then INDY exploded for 20 points in the 2nd qtr and DET had to play catchup the rest of the game to no avail. Miscues by DET in the 2nd half thwarted any attempts to turn the game around and INDY cruised. The running game for DET was ditched because of the catchup mode. DET had a nice game the previous week vs ATL but that’s ATL not INDY. LW, MINN had a nice game @GB. MINN was +6 ½ but, they stormed out to a 28-14 lead in the 3rd qtr that put GB in a panic mode and catchup. GB @HOME is usually a good bet but, somehow, GB DEF couldn’t stop RB Dalvin Cook who was a one-man wrecking crew, scoring all 4 tds for MINN. Three were by rushing 30x for 163 yards and another was by a reception. L13 MINN(H) vs DET, MINN 9-4 SU & 6-5-2 ATS. L26 MINN vs DET, MINN 14-9-3 ATS. L26 DET vs MINN, DOG 9-14-3 ATS. L26 MINN vs DET, HOME 10-13-3 ATS. L22 DET vs MINN, MINN 13-7-2 ATS. DET 18-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 25-48 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 26-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 9-7 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 2-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 9-4 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss. DET 12-0 ATS in gms 5-8 as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. DET 12-2 ATS in gms 5-8 AWAY vs opp off SUATS win. MINN 34-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 22-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. MINN 31-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 7-6 ATS before CHI. MINN 5-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 5-12 ATS as a FAV <11pts off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 0-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs div opp. MINN 2-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs .500>opp. MINN 10-5 ATS after GB. MINN 2-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs <.500opp w/revenge. MINN 7-0 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. Divisional games are very tough for both teams. Cook has done well vs DET in the past and he would like to find a rhythm and would like to take it to a divisional rival. MINN has beaten DET five in a row and is looking to bounce back from their blowout loss. Key for DET is stopping the run game from MINN and putting it all on MINN QB Kirk Cousins who is prone to mistakes when pressured. If DET can do that, they can win this game outright.
THE PICK: DET+4 3 STARS
NY Giants (1-7), (5-3) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (4-0) @ Washington Football Team (2-5), (3-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS NYG+3 ½
On MNF, NYG @HOME vs TB gave TB a run for their money. TB was a big ROAD FAV @+10 and I liked them to steam roll NYG. But, NYG came out swinging and were actually leading going into the 4th qtr. But TB scored 10 points in the 4th qtr and then NYG put up a late drive that resulted in a td. NYG needed the 2pt conversion to tie the game and send the game into OT. NYG failed and ended up losing 25-23. NYG QB Daniel Jones threw 2INTS in this game that resulted in 10 points for TB. Without the turnovers, NYG may have had the upset. Jones continues to turn the ball over which is a major problem for him and NYG. WASH is coming off a bye. WASH 3-10 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before that, they demolished DAL 25-3. DAL has become atrocious and they were ripe for the picking by WASH. Everything WASH did vs DAL went right and DAL couldn’t do anything right. It was a combination. But, even though the record for NYG is bad, NYG play hungry and diligent. NYG can’t be taken for granted because there are guys that are playing for jobs and they are motivated. These two teams met in wk 6 and NYG were cruising until NYG QB Daniel Jones decided to make the game closer than it should have been with turnovers and NYG ended up winning by a single point, 20-19. I’ve never been a big fan of WASH HC Ron Rivera and he is known as “Riverboat Ron”. He loses on most of his gambles and other times he flat out makes the wrong decision. We’ll see what he dials up this week. L13 NYG @ WASH, NYG 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS. L23 NYG vs WASH , DOG 13-10 ATS. NYG 18-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 21-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 20-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 8-5-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 9-7 ATS L16 before div HOME gm. WASH 20-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 14-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 25-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 6-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. WASH 0-10 ATS @HOME vs .250< conf opp. WASH 2-12 ATS w/rest. WASH 0-8 ATS in gms 5-8 when <.500 & FAVS vs <.500opp. Division games are always tougher then expected and even though neither one of these teams is playoff bound, they will fight tooth and nail for everything in this game. WASH is a FAV and quite honestly they are not that much better than NYG to deserve a spread like this. I think it will be a closer game than the spread suggests and it may come down to the wire again. Take the points here.
THE PICK: NYG+3 ½ 5 STARS
Houston Texans (1-6), (1-6) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (1-6), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS JAGS+7
HOU is coming off a bye. HOU 7-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before that they were drubbed by GB 35-20 coming off a loss of their own. DE JJ Watt was visibly upset and disgusted at his press conference and he has every right to be. HOU has underperformers all over the team and is on pace for a high draft spot. The best showing of the season believe it or not was the OT loss @TENN earlier in the season. Here they went toe to toe with a good team before losing in OT. They scored a lot in that game and probably should have won. JAGS are also coming off a bye. JAGS 8-4-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye JAGS lost @LAC 39-29. JAGS were down 16-0, then up 21-16 then back and forth before finally succumbing to LAC 39-29. JAGS best showing this year have been wk 2 @TENN losing 33-30 in the final minute and beating INDY in wk 1. Other than that, the season has been a disaster. JAGS QB Gardner Minshew will be out of this game because of his strained ligaments in his right thumb so QB Jake Luton will be starting. He has yet to see action in an NFL game and was drafted in the 6th round of the 2020 draft. L13 HOU@ JAGS, HOU 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS. L17 HOU vs JAGS, ROAD 12-5 ATS. HOU 10-4-2 ATS in 1st of BB RG;s. HOU 21-12-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 13-11 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 14-10 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. HOU 6-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs <.500opp. HOU 10-9-2 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 23-11-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600<opp. HOU 6-1 ATS in gms 5-8 when <.500 AWAY vs DIV. JAGS 22-22 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 33-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 20-23-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. JAGS 18-29 ATS L47 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 8-2 ATS w/rest vs <600opp. These two teams met in wk 5 @HOU with HOU winning 30-14. Not much of a game there. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast. Former HOU HC Bill O’Brien destroyed HOU with stupid play calls and trades that made no sense. They will be rebuilding in the off season and looking for a new GM & HC. In the meantime, HOU does have talented players that just need the right coach. JAGS will also be rebuilding and whether QB Gardner Minshew is still here is another question to be answered. His mechanics are not the greatest and he is a bit of a gunslinger. Never the less, this is a game that HOU should win easily and feel good about themselves for at least a few days. HOU needs to throw everything they can at this rookie QB until he cries mercy. HOU cannot turn the ball over vs JAGS. Lay the points here as HOU rolls.
THE PICK: HOU-7 3 STARS
Sunday November 8th, 2020 4:00pm
LV Raiders (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (2-5), (3-2-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS LV+1 ½
LW, the weather in CLEVE for LV @CLEVE turned out to be disastrous. However, the ground game for LV turned into something super as LV rushed 45x for 208 yds. I don’t know if they will be able to do that again this week vs LAC. LV did it against a team that was #10 vs the run. LAC #11 RUSH DEF. LV QB Derek Carr is the kind of guy that needs a balanced attack because he gets flustered. So, it’s better if LV has a plan of attack with RB Josh Jacobs #1, Derek Carr #2. RB Josh Jacobs rushed for 128 yds on 31 carries and he did not have a fumble. But LAC does have DEs Melvin Ingram & Joey Bosa up front to stop the run. But, Jacobs has been there before. The LV DEF made a lot of stops vs CLEVE as it was mostly a running game on both sides due to the weather. There won’t be any weather issues this week in the dome. LW, LAC was @DEN. LAC was up in this game 24-3 but let DEN back in the game. The DEF for LAC was atrocious in the 4th qtr as they let DEN march up and down the field for 3 4th qtr tds. The last one came with :00 left on the clock and was orchestrated by DEN QB Drew Lock who marched 81 yards in 14 plays in the last 2:30 to win the game 31-30. LAC QB Justin Hebert continues to show strong leadership and talent that will have him throwing footballs for a long time in the NFL but, the DEF for LAC fell apart here. Granted the 2INTS that Hebert had were turned into 10pts by DEN but, it can’t be all on him. The LAC OFF also rushed for 210 yards. So, almost 500 yards of OFF and they lost. L13 LV @LAC, LV 5-8 SU but 7-5-1 ATS. L24 LV vs LAC, ROAD 13-9-1 ATS 1 NL. L19 LV vs LAC, ROAD 11-6-1 ATS 1 NL. L21 LV vs LAC, DOG 15-4-1 ATS 1 NL. LV 9-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. LV 35-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 36-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 31-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 30-29 ATS as a ROAD DOG. LV 6-12 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. LV 3-18 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 0-11 ATS AAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 1-8 ATS in gms 5-8 vs <.500opp off SU FAV loss. LAC 25-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 27-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 24-27 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 6-3 ATS after DEN. I like LV here because LV has a chance to do some damage and possibly solidify themselves as a wild card team going forward. But you never know which team will show up for LV. They can beat good teams then look awful against mediocre and bad teams. They need to stay consistent. LAC is an up and comer and they need a few guys added on both sides of the ball to take that step forward. But for this game I like LV. Divisional rivalry games can be gruesome and last week for LAC was no exception but LAC will get better but LV has to prove something here.
THE PICK: LV+1 ½ 3 STARS
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0), (6-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (2-6), (0-8) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (0-4) ATS DAL+13 ½
PITT played a great game @BALT, beating BALT outright 28-24. However, PITT did give up 265 yds rushing and were down 17-7 at one point. But, PITT made adjustments in the 2nd half whereas BALT did not. BALT QB Lamar Jackson committed 2INTS & 2 fumbles. PITT forced a Jackson fumble late in the game which almost sealed it for PITT. PITT still needed to hold on as BALT did get one last shot. I liked PITT in this game and they were getting points. PITT is a strong team and they have played smart. They make adjustments as they need see it and take advantage of other teams’ mistakes. PITT HC Mike Tomlin doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves. LW, DAL was @PHILLY on SNF. PHILLY won 23-9. This game should have been a bigger blowout by PHILLY but, PHILLY QB Carson Wentz committed 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles. It’s like he was playing for DAL. Anyhow, DAL QB Ben DiNucci who played in his first NFL game will not be plying in this one. QB Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush will be getting the start. At this writing it wasn’t public who would start. Gilbert has had 6 pass attempts in his NFL career, no starts. Cooper Rush has had 3 pass attempts in his career, no starts. DAL could not get anything going vs PHILLY but had a lead of 9-7 at the half thanks to 2fumbles and 1INT by Wentz. PHILLY is no better and was the receiver of gifts by DAL in the 2nd half that led to the big score. Anyway, DAL has a depleted O-LINE and has a secondary that is ripe for the picking. DAL will be heading into their bye. DAL 5-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. DAL could use the extra time for recovery and healing of some of their players. PITT 17-23 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 31-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 38-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 10-15 ATS L25 before CINNCY. PITT 6-11 ATS L17 AWAY in NOV. PITT 6-15 ATS as a non-div RF 3>pts. PITT 1-11 ATS as a FAV >10pts. PITT 1-12 ATS AWAY off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 6-18 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 8-1 ATS before div HM gm. DAL 12-8-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. DAL 42-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 20-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 3-9 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DAL 6-0 ATS L6 as a DD DOG. DAL 0-7 ATS off SU div loss vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 4-25-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 6-10 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 7-2 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. PITT should use this game as an OFF & DEF tuneup. DAL is using a QB that hasn’t seen much action and should be bum rushed at every possible moment. PITT needs to stop the run so that it will all fall on the QB’s shoulders. This game should be a blowout and PITT needs to do the same like they did vs CLEVE earlier in the season. Big Ben should spread the OFF out wide to get even better with his receivers. The DEF should create turnovers which should also lead to more scoring. Lay the points here as it should be a blowout, unless PITT starts to get sloppy and gets in their own way.
THE PICK: PITT-13 ½ 5 STARS
Miami Dolphins (4-3), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS MIA+5
LW, MIA @HOME shocked LAR 28-17. LAR had a calamity of errors and LAR Jared Goff committed 2INTS and 2 lost fumbles that turned into 21 MIA pts. Top it off with a punt return for a td by MIA and there is your 28 pts. LAR were sloppy and MIA took advantage of every mistake. MIA sacked Goff 2x but both times, they made them count with fumbles recovered by MIA. MIA QB Tua Tagovailova made his 1st NFL start and was 12/22 for 93 yards &1td. He did have a lost fumble but the DEF for MIA was overwhelming and they were dominant in this win. ARZ is coming off a bye. ARZ 5-6-2 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. Before their bye, they had a nice comeback win @HOME on SNF vs SEA. SEA was leading 34-24 late in the game when a big penalty vs SEA negated a fg and pushed the ball for ARZ deep into SEA territory which ARZ turned into a td. Then they were able to get another fg and then in OT win with a fg after trading possessions with SEA. ARZ snatched victory from defeat by playing aggressive and having a SEA player commit a stupid mistake. But a win is a win. MIA 34-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 37-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 9-5 ATS in 1st of BB HG’s. ARZ 26-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 14-16 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ARZ 8-1 ATS w/rest vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 6-0 ATS w/rest vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 17-3 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 13-1 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SUATS win. This is a game where there are QBs who are both young and talented. Tua is just getting his feet wet and Kyler Murray is trying to turn the tide in ARZ. This game has the possibility of a shootout and I don’t think that either team will blow either team out. I see it being a close game with both teams fighting until the end. MIA #20 TOT DEF. ARZ #23 TOT DEF. The game may even be decided at the end of the game. Does MIA have the DEF to stop Murray? They need to do exactly what they did vs LAR and do that vs Murray. But they need to keep him in the pocket and not let him run. I like the points here because I don’t there will be a blowout and MIA could even win outright.
THE PICK: MIA+5 3 STARS
Sunday November 8th, 2020 8:20pm
NO Saints (5-2), (2-5) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (6-2), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-0-1) ATS NO+5
LW, NO escaped with their lives. They had this game won @CHI, 23-13 but the NO DEF fell apart and couldn’t make any stops. CHI came back late and tied the game but NO won it in OT. NO 4-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. NO even had a chance in OT to win and cover but they did not. They did win 26-23. NO has to have other guys step up while WR Thomas is out. NO QB Drew Brees can get the ball to guys but, they have to step up and make plays. The DEF for NO has to make stops as well. The secondary for NO is hot and cold and can be scored upon. They have 4INTS total which is not a lot and they need to create more turnovers. Some of the LBs need to be in on some turnovers. Especially this week vs TB & Tom Brady. LW, on MNF TB got all they could handle with an all of a sudden surging NYG. TB was a heavy FAV on MNF(-10) and barely escaped with their lives, 25-23. NYG ran the ball successfully and caused a fumble which was turned into 7pts by NYG. Had it not been for NYG QB Daniel Jones 2INTS which were turned into 10pts by TB, TB may have taken a loss here. They will not be so lucky with NO. L13 NO@TB, NO 8-5 SU & 7-6 ATS. L15 TB vs NO, HOME 9-6 ATS. NO 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. NO 38-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 31-17 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 29-23 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NO 7-3 ATS AWAY on SNF. NO 14-11 ATS on SNF. NO 9-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NO 16-8 ATS L24 as a ROAD DOG. NO 11-2 ATS vs .666>conf opp. NO 10-0 ATS as a DIV DOG 3>pts. NO 9-0 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off BB SU wins. NO 14-1 ATS vs .666>conf opp off SU win. TB 31-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 24-22 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 21-30 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. TB 2-7 ATS as a FAV on SNF. TB 4-4 ATS @HOME on SNF. These two teams met in wk 1 @NO and it was NO who was looking young and Brady looking old. Brady doesn’t forget but, this is a battle between two heavyweights and it will not be a runaway game by either team. TB barely got by NYG and NYG is horrible and TB were given a couple of gifts. NO has to be ready for anything as Brady will be looking for revenge in this game. I think it will be a close game as the second game in a divisional game is usually closer than the first. Turnovers will loom large here. I like that the points are more than a fg and NO should be the pick here to keep it close even if they lose.
THE PICK: NO+5 3 STARS
Monday November 9th, 2020 8:15pm
NE Patriots (2-5), (3-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ NY Jets (0-8), (1-7) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (1-3) ATS NYJ+7
No one ever thought that this would be a battle between who cares the least? LW, NYJ were beaten badly @KC 35-9. NYJ were +19 ½ but, without even two of their top receivers it was like boys vs MEN. The NYJ have been blownout in 3 of their last 4 games. It hasn’t been good for NYJ who are looking less and less like a team every week. NYJ didn’t even sack KC QB Pat Mahomes 1x. Also, KC didn’t have any turnovers. KC passed for a combined 446 yards against NYJ. NYJ did have 3fgs in their first three possessions but a blocked fg before the half took any sails out of the NYJ ship. The score would have been 21-12 and NYJ was getting the ball to start the 2nd half. In the 2nd half NYJ went 3 and out 5x and fumbled in another possession. NYJ are terrible and can’t get out of their own way. LW, NE had a chance to win the game @BUFF but NE QB Cam Newton fumbled the ball away and BUFF recovered. The final score was BUFF 24-21 but I liked NE getting 3 ½ because I thought NE would win outright. NE should have won outright. Even without WR Julian Edelman, NE was able to find a rushing game that rushed for 188yds and 2tds. To say that this season has been a disappointment for NE is an understatement and HC Bill Belichick has stated that they have been handicapped by the salary cap. But then again, who isn’t? Look for Newton & CO to bounceback here and have a big game. L13 NE @NYJ, NE 9-4 SU & 6-7 ATS. L19 NE vs NYJ, ROAD 10-9 ATS. NE 8-9 ATS in 2nd of BB RG’s. NE 28-19 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NE 33-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 36-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 7-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. NE 7-4-2 ATS L13 on MNF. NE 12-11-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 7>pts. NE 18-12 ATS as a ROAD FAV after an SU loss. NE 2-6 ATS AWAY off div ROAD gm vs <.500opp. NE 10-3 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 16-2 ATS in gms 5-8 vs opp off BB SU losses. NE 10-1 ATS as a FAV 20<pts vs .250<opp. NYJ vs NE, if NYJ DOG 7>pts, NYJ 9-7 ATS. NYJ 21-18-1 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 33-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 30-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 24-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 17-19-1 ATS L37 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 6-4 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 7-0 ATS as a MNF DOG off DD ATS loss. NYJ 8-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYJ 6-2 ATS as a HOME DOG after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 2-8 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. NE has the right coaching to turn their season around. NYJ does not. Also, NE has talented players on both sides of the ball. NYJ traded away all of their talented players and have a QB that is easily ruffled. Newton knows that he needs to rebound after the fumble LW and will be focusing on having a much better game. NE will be rebounding with a blowout because the DEF for NE is still tough and will rattle whatever NYJ try. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NE-7 5 STARS