2022 NFL SCHEDULE DIVISIONAL WKND (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Tim

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 21^st, 2023 4:30pm

(4) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs                     JAGS+8 ½

LW, JAGS were a tale of two halves. In the 1^st half of the game last week as JAGS were @HOME vs LAC, JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence had 4INTS and the team had 1 lost fumble. As a result, LAC was leading 27-0 in the 2^nd qtr. In the 2^nd qtr, JAGS started to get it together and they put together a nice drive that made the score, LAC 27-7. In the 2^nd half, JAGS made adjustments but it looked as though LAC did not. Lawrence & CO directed four drives resulting in 3tds and a fg to win the game 31-30. On the td in the 4^th qtr, JAGS made a 2pt conversion which made the score LAC 30-28. Right before this drive, LAC missed a 40 yd fg which would have made the score LAC 33-20. It stayed 30-20 and JAGS got their td. On the ensuing drive, LAC went nowhere on three plays and JAGS got the ball back for the last drive that resulted in a fg with :00 to win 31-30. The DEF for JAGS stepped up in the 2^nd half while the playing calling for LAC was suspect. It was a very nice comeback win for the JAGS. These two teams met in wk 10 @KC. KC was the HOME FAV-9 ½ and I liked the JAGS+9 ½ . In the 1^st half of that game KC had 2 lost fumbles that JAGS could not turn into points. JAGS also had 2 missed fgs that may have changed the course of the game but were not meant to be. The 1^st half was sloppy for both teams and the halftime score was KC 20-7. In the 2^nd half as the JAGS played cathchup, JAGS were able to score 10pts as KC scored 7pts. JAGS could not get any closer than 10pts and the game resulted in a KC 27-17 win with KC running 11 plays for 61yds in the last possession to run out the clock. This would be a turning point for JAGS. After this game JAGS were on their bye and became resurrected and went 6-1 the rest of the season to finish 9-8. During those games, JAGS beat TENN 2x & @HOME vs DAL. After the game vs JAGS, KC went 7-1 the rest of the season to finish 14-3. KC’s only loss during that streak was @CINNCY in wk 13. JAGS have had a nice turnaround season but they are playing a KC team that has been here before and knows what’s at stake. JAGS are a number of players away but have something to build on. KC has an OFF that almost seems to score points at will. KC #1 TOT OFF w/ #20 RUSH OFF & #1 PASS OFF vs JAGS #23 TOT DEF w/ #11 RUSH DEF & #27 PASS DEF. KC QB Pat Mahomes is a master of the OFF and even though it has seemed that KC has let some teams hang around in some games, this is a game where KC puts everything together and puts on a an offensive show. Usually the 1^st game that KC plays in the layoffs they come out with a lot of firepower and get a big win. KC has had a nice rest and they have had plenty of time to put together a game plan that will spread out the OFF. For JAGS, you have to look at when they played an OFF with such great firepower. JAGS were blown out @DET 40-14 in wk 13. DET has a potent OFF and JAGS couldn’t stop them. I like KC here and lay the points.  

THE PICK: KC-8 ½

Saturday January 21^st, 2023 8:15pm

(6) New York Giants @ (1) Philadelphia Eagles                         NYG+7 ½

LW, NYG played a perfect game @MINN. NYG had 0turnovers and the OFF went through QB Daniel Jones & RB Saquon Barkley. Jones was 24/35, 301yds, 2tds, 0turnovers while also rushing 17x for 68yds. Barkley rushed for 53yds, 2tds on 9carries while catching 5passes for 56yds. NYG WR Isaiah Hodgins caught 8passes for 105 yds and 1td. NYG DEF kept the MINN running game in check to a total of 61yds and made MINN QB Kirk Cousins make plays. The NYG DEF held MINN WR Justin Jefferson in check but didn’t really have an answer for MINN TE TJ Hockenson who caught 10passes for 129yds. NYG won the game 31-24. These two teams met 2x during the season. The 1^st meeting was in wk 13 @NYG and PHILLY basically destroyed NYG 48-22. The score wasn’t even that close. The score was 24-7 at the half and 48-14 in the 4^th qtr before NYG added a dummy td to make the final score 48-22. In that game, the NYG didn’t play that bad but the PHILLY OFF was a machine. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw 2tds and spread the ball around to nine different receivers. Also, PHILLY rushed for 253yds, 4tds on 31 carries. The NYG DEF couldn’t stop PHILLY. In the 2^nd meeting in wk 18 @PHILLY, PHILLY needed a win to secure the #1 seed in the NFC. NYG was locked into the #6 seed whether they won or lost. So in that game, NYG used backups but PHILLY surged out to a 16-0 halftime lead. PHILLY eased up a little in the 2^nd half and the final score was PHILLY 22-16. PHILLY didn’t look as strong as they have been but, they got the job done. Also, it was QB Jalen Hurts 1^st game back after missing the last two with injury. In this game, for the NYG, they have to play a perfect game again. They can’t have any turnovers and they have to spread the OFF out. The PHILLY DEF is not the MINN DEF by far. PHILLY had 70 sacks this season with four players having 11 or more sacks. The PHILLY DEF also had 17INTs. PHILLY #1 TOT DEF w/#16 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. Plus, the PHILLY OFF is no slouch either. PHILLY #3 TOT OFF w/ #5 RUSH OFF & #9 PASS OFF. PHILLY can beat you many ways and they will be ready to go full steam. For the NYG, they have had a nice season under 1^st year HC Brain Daboll but, they are a few players away from making a deep playoff run. Some things need to be tweaked and a few players need to be added on both sides of the ball. As for PHILLY, they will be running on all cylinders here as Hurts has had some time to rest and the PHILLY DEF should be ready to roll. I see PHILLY winning this game big and moving on. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: PHILLY-7 ½

Sunday January 22^nd, 2023 3:00pm

(3) Cincinnati Bengals @ (2) Buffalo Bills                                  CINNCY+5

Both of these teams did not give their best effort last week and both could have easily lost. BUFF has a habit of getting lacksidasical and letting teams hang around with a chance to win. CINNCY probably didn’t take BALT seriously without QB Lamar Jackson at the helm. With QB Anthony Brown at the helm, the BALT OFF is certainly weaker. But with Tyler Huntley as the QB the BALT OFF is not as weak because he has multiple games under him and knows the OFF well. He showed that in the game vs CINNCY and the play that he fumbled on which was returned for a td could have had BALT winning the game. It was that close. CINNCY didn’t put their best foot forward and their running game which has been up and done gained a total of 51yds, 1td on 18 carries. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow looked uncomfortable most of the night from the pressure of the BALT DEF. He was sacked 4x and the game was very tight all throughout. BALT outplayed CINNCY but it was the few mistakes that they made which were too costly to overcome. It was a sloppy game for both teams and BALT was able to get their run game going @CINNCY. BALT rushed for 155yds on 35 carries which kept the CINNCY DEF on its toes. We all know that BUFF was supposed to play @CINNCY on MNF in wk 17 but unfortunately CB Damar Hamlin suffered a life threatening injury during the early part of the game which forced cancellation of that game. We are all relieved that Hamlin has survived and is on the road to recovery. But LW, BUFF @HOME vs MIA, BUFF got a little cocky for their own good. BUFF was up 17-0 but because BUFF got sloppy and cocky instead going full steam ahead, MIA capitalized on 2 BUFF INTS for an extra 10pts. This game was 17-17 before BUFF kicked a fg to end the first half 20-17. Then in the 3^rd qtr, BUFF fumbled the ball and it was returned 5yds to make the score MIA 24-20. BUFF had two scoring drives in the 3^rd qtr to make the score BUFF 34-24. One of those BUFF drives was off a MIA INT. In the 4^th qtr, MIA added a td to make the final score BUFF 34-31. However, MIA had their chances and they could have won as BUFF did not play their best game. BUFF was not taking this game as seriously as they should of because it looked like they were not taking the skill of 3^rd string QB Skyler Thompson seriously. Even though he did not have the greatest passing day going 18/45, 220yds, 1td, 2INTs, MIA was in it to the end. MIA couldn’t get their run game going as it was stopped at 42yds. CINNCY lost LT Jonah Williams to a knee injury in this game and are already without RT La’el Collins & RG Alex Cappa. BUFF QB Josh Allen & CINNCY QB Joe Burrow are very talented guys who know how to make plays. Allen likes to take off where Burrow would rather stay in the pocket. Allen has a tendency to make mistakes whereas Burrow can be a machine and not make any mistakes. The key for CINNCY in this game is not letting Allen take off and run. CINNCY DEF needs to have a spotter on him and keep him behind the line of scrimmage. For CINNCY, they need some type of run game to keep the BUFF DEF from teeing off on Burrow. The O-LINE for CINNCY is decimated and they need to get acclimated and working as a unit very fast. If they can do that and do their job, CINNCY can win. This should be a good game with neither team winning in a blowout. It should be a 3pt game at best going back and forth. I’m feeling that it could be a shootout with a fg deciding it at the end. I like CINNCY with the points.     

THE PICK: CINNCY+5

Sunday January 22^nd, 2023 6:30pm

(5) Dallas Cowboys @ (2) San Francisco 49ers                           DAL+3 ½

LW, SF @HOME toyed with SEA in the 1^st half. SF started out with a 10-0 lead but looked tense. At the half it was SEA 17-16. But in the 2^nd half SF played their game and was leading 41-17 before SEA added a dummy td to make the score 41-23. SF QB Brock Purdy showed everyone that he is not intimidated by the situation and passed for 332yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. The SF OFF rushed for 181yds, 1td on 33 carries and the SEA DEF had no answers. Purdy was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers. LW, DAL went into TB and took care of business. It didn’t look that way early as TB & DAL both exchanged punts on their first two possessions. But DAL got it going with tds on three straight possessions. One was off a TB INT. The score at halftime was 18-0 because DAL missed 3 extra points. In the 2^nd half, the DAL DEF stepped it up and DAL scored 2 more tds while TB scored 2tds with the 2^nd td by TB coming after DAL was leading 31-6. DAL QB Dak Prescott had one of his finest games, going 25/33, 305yds, 4tds, 0turnovers. He even ran for 1td as well. Dak spread the ball nicely to eight different receivers. The TB DEF looked tired and old and seemed to be out of position on almost every play. They couldn’t stop DAL and Dak picked them apart. On OFF, TB couldn’t get anything going in the run game and TB QB Tom Brady ended up throwing 66 passes in the defeat. SF & DAL have not played each other since the playoffs last season. In the 1^st round of the playoffs @SF, SF won 23-17. SF has a lot of weapons on OFF and they make sure that everyone gets involved. This OFF has been upgraded tremendously since RB/WR Christian McCaffrey was acquired from CAR earlier in the season. SF #5 TOT OFF w/ #7 RUSH OFF & #11 PASS OFF.  So far, rookie SF QB Brock Purdy has shown that he is not intimidated by the moment and has become the leader of this team. The only hole in the SF team is their PASS DEF which if not careful can be burned. SF #20 PASS DEF. SEA QB Geno Smith showed that they can be beat but SF then made some adjustments and shut SEA down. Prescott & CO will come in on a high note but not to take away from their win, they did beat a team that hadn’t really beaten anyone with a winning record all season. A lot of people, including myself, didn’t think that DAL would get by TB because of their sometimes questionable play vs inferior teams but this week it will be a war. I like SF being @HOME and knowing what they need to do. SF can’t get complacent on DEF and let DAL hang around. SF must create turnovers and put pressure on Dak. For DAL they can’t let SF dictate the game and get into a situation where they play catchup and become predictable. SF has to make sure that LB Micah Parsons is neutralized. He is the X factor for DAL. For SF, the X factor is DE Nick Bosa. He can disrupt the OFF at any time. Right now, SF is too tough and just getting started. It should be a good game but I like SF laying the points.

THE PICK: SF-3 ½