2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 10
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 10 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Cincinnati Bengals, NE Patriots, NY Jets & Baltimore Ravens
Thursday November 10th, 2022 8:15pm
Atlanta Falcons (4-5), (7-2) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CAR+3
LW, CAR was drubbed @CINNCY 42-21. This game was 35-0 at the half and you could have turned it off when it was 28-0. CAR QB PJ Walker started this game but threw 2INTs that led to 2TDS for CINNCY. He was benched and Baker Mayfield came in. But it didn’t matter, CAR was in complete catchup mode and CINNCY had their DEF ease up a little. I had liked CAR+7 ½ because I felt CINNCY would win but CAR would keep it close. CINNCY was one of only three FAVS that won and covered all weekend. ATL’s problem is that can’t seem to hold onto a lead. ATL was up 10-0 & 17-14 LW @HOME vs LAC but, lost the game 20-17. ATL missed a fg late that probably would have clinched this game but again ATL found a way to lose. ATL rushed for over 200yds in this game vs LAC but the DEF couldn’t make stops when they needed them. Even when they recovered a fumble late in the game, they fumbled it back to LAC and LAC got the opportunity to kick the winning fg. That has been the story of ATL’s season. L15 CAR(H) vs ATL, CAR 6-9 SUATS. L23 CAR vs ATL, HOME 12-11 ATS. L21 CAR vs ATL, DOG 13-8 ATS. CAR 0-7 ATS L7 @HOME on TNF. CAR 2-7 ATS L9 on TNF. CAR 35-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 26-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 21-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 15-10 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 9-5 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 8-8 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 7-8 ATS as a div dog w/rev. 2-8 AT off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 1-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 8-11-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. ATL 8-10 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 12-6 ATS on TNF. ATL 9-3 ATS vs NFC SOUTH on TNF. ATL 4-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. ATL 36-25-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 30-22-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 34-32-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 3-10 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 4-11 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 3-11 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 7-1 ATS on TNF vs <500opp. ATL 1-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 0-6 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. Less than two weeks ago these two teams met in ATL and ATL won in OT 37-34. CAR should have won the game as CAR QB PJ Walker threw a bomb to WR DJ Moore who caught and unbelievable pass for a TD. The problem was that Moore celebrated by taking off his helmet which unleashed a 15yd penalty which was enforced on the extra pt. The extra pt was missed and the score was 34-34 instead of CAR 35-34. When they went to OT, ATL found a way to kick a fg and won 37-34. Is there a little revenge factor for CAR here? I think so because both teams can unleash a healthy running attack. ATL #4 RUSH OFF. CAR #22 RUSH OFF is a little misleading. Since CMC left, RB D’onta Foreman has been on a tear. Unfortunately that went out the door LW @CINNCY when they were down so much playing catchup. In the last 10 seasons ATL has swept the series in 2016, 2018 & 2019. CAR swept the series in 2013. ATL is playing better than CAR and ATL has lost some games they should have won. Lay the points here as Mariota and CO get it going. ATL is the better team here and should be able to get the job done.
THE PICK: ATL-3
Sunday November 13th, 2022 9:30am
Seattle Seahawks (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (4-5), (2-6-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (0-4-1) ATS (Munich, Germany) SEA+2 ½
LW, TB QB Tom Brady pulled a rabbit out of the hat and showed us all why he’s the greatest. He led TB 60yds in 6plays with :35 seconds left & 0timeouts and got the TD to win the game 16-13. This was a boring game with two teams going nowhere and LAR were leading 13-6. But leave it to LAR HC Sean McVay who can’t close the door and TB clawed their way back with a fg and the td in the final seconds to win. TB was -3 and it ended up being a PUSH. LW, SEA @ARZ was a seesaw battle. ARZ was looking to avoid a season sweep and SEA was just getting started. SEA took a 24-14 lead in the 4th qtr and ARZ was looking at catchup mode. SEA came back with a score after ARZ made the score SEA 24-21 and the final was SEA 31-21. The SEA DEF kept ARZ QB Kyler Murray in check with 5sacks and 1fumble recovery. SEA QB Geno Smith was 26/34, 275yds, 2tds, 1INT but no fumbles. He also ran for 38yds on 6 carries. He managed the game well for SEA and was clutch when they needed it. SEA RB Kenneth Walker continues to impress with 109 yds rushing on 26 carries and 2TDS. L9 SEA vs TB, SEA 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. TB 4-10 ATS since 2007 before their bye. TB 33-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 27-25-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 6-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts vs opp off SU win. SEA 11-4 ATS since 2007 before their bye. SEA 7-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SEA 29-27 ATS AWAY I NOV. SEA 26-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 1-10 ATS off BB SU wins (last by DD) vs opp off SU win. SEA 15-3-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-2 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-4 ATS off div RG vs non-div opp. SEA 6-10 ATS L16 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 2-10 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG off DD ATS win. 14-3 ATS as a conf DOG >1pt off SUATS win. TB is in serious trouble. Right now everyone knows that this is Brady’s last hurrah and TB doesn’t have a good QB waiting in the wings. There will be a total rebuild after the season. For SEA, Geno Smith is showing a resurgence and definite leadership skills that he didn’t either show or wasn’t given a chance to show earlier in his career. Also, the SEA DEF is getting better each week. TB has no running game and they showed it LW vs LAR rushing for 51yds.while Brady threw 58x. TB #32 RUSH OFF. On the other hand, SEA has a nice running game with Rookie RB Kenneth Walker who has impressed everyone and has earned the starting job. SEA #10 RUSH OFF. This in turn takes a lot of pressure off of Smith who doesn’t feel like he has to win the game all by himself. SEA knows that Brady is not mobile and TB has no running game. They should just put as much pressure up front as possible and create a couple of turnovers. I like SEA to win by a TD as they go into their bye week with the lead in the NFC WEST.
THE PICK: SEA+2 ½
Sunday November 13th, 2022 1:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (7-1), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (6-2), (4-3-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS MINN+3 1/2
I liked MINN-3 ½ @WASH and I was looking good with the score 17-17 late in the game when MINN had a 1st and goal at the WASH 6yd line with 2:35 left in the game. But, to make a long story short, MINN had 6 plays to get into the endzone and had to settle for 3pts which made the final score, MINN 20-17. With all their talent on OFF, they couldn’t get the job done. WASH should have won the game because they were up 17-7 in the 4th qtr but they self destructed. MINN got away with one. LW, BUFF was up 14-3 @NYJ and it looked like BUFF was going to get the job done and beat NYJ on the road. But after that the BUFF DEF and OFF couldn’t do anything right. NYJ stepped up to the plate and won 20-17. BUFF was a BIG FAV-13 and after BUFF QB Josh Allen gave his comments after the GB game, you would have thought BUFF would come into this game guns a blazing. Well, Rule #1, don’t listen to the QB. See Aaron Rodgers as well. NYJ probably got pissed that they were such a BIG DOG and BUFF was taking them for granted. L4 BUFF vs MINN, BUFF 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. MINN 14-4 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MINN 32-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 33-21 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 13-4 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 14-8 ATS vs 700>opp. BUFF 7-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. BUFF 37-23 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 31-20 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 4-10 ATS after NYJ. MINN didn’t show me anything LW as to why they are an elite team. Their record is very deceiving and it has some tough games going forward. Beating WASH by 3pts late in the 4th qtr is not a decisive win. This is saving one’s behind. BUFF is hitting a speed bump and needs to get back on track. The confines of home should do wonders for BUFF where they are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. MINN doesn’t play well AWAY vs non d-visional teams as I mentioned last week. I will stick to that mantra again. MINN 5-8 SU & 6-7 ATS L13 AWAY vs non-div outdoors. The celebration that MINN had after they beat WASH was like they had just won the SuperBowl. LW, MINN had a total of 56yds rushing vs WASH. Is WASH that good against the RUSH? Instead they should have acted subdued for the fact they barely beat an average team. This week, BUFF should gate back on track and MINN should come back down to Earth. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BUFF-3 1/2
Detroit Lions (2-6), (4-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-6), (3-5-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS DET+2 ½
CHI gets no respect after almost going toe to toe @HOME with MIA? CHI was in the ball game because instead of MIA kicking fgs, they went for it on 4th down and didn’t connect. MIA was 0-2 on 4th down which gave CHI a chance to score some points early, tie up the game late or even go ahead. MIA had no answer for CHI QB Justin Fields who ran the ball for 178 yds, including a 61yd td run. CHI rushed for a combined 252 yds but lost 35-32. Fields also threw 17/28, 123yds with 3tds, 0turnovers. The CHI DEF held MIA to 77yds rushing and really put it all on MIA’s QB Tua Tagovailoa’s arm. However, CHI played catchup in this game ever since the score was MIA 14-10. It didn’t help CHI, that MIA blocked a punt for a td that made the score MIA 21-10. The CHI DEF needs to play better. LW, DET had their game of the year, they intercepted GB Aaron Rodgers 3x and frustrated him all afternoon. Rodgers threw 2INTS that were so deep in the redzone, they would have been tds that gave the game to GB. The DEF for DET held GB RBS 66yds. L15 CHI(H) vs DET, CHI 9-7 SU & 8-6-1 ATS. L26 DET vs CHI, HOME 15-9-2 ATS. L20 DET vs CHI, FAV 9-9-2 ATS. DET 7-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 20-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 29-51 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 28-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 3-13-1 ATS after div HOME GM. DET 7-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .333<opp. DET 9-5 ATS AWAAY vs .333<opp. DET 13-7 ATS vs 333<opp. CHI 7-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CHI 28-18-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 32-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 25-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 5-12 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 9-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CHI 7-3 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs 333<opp off ATS win. CHI 7-1 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts vs 333<opp off ATS win. CHI is starting to put together something for the long term. Whether or not a running QB like Justin Fields can be a running QB for the long term that is questionable because they haven’t lasted. DEFs quickly adjust and prepare for them taking off and running. DET needs to build on their DEF. I am not taking anything away from the game vs GB but, DET had only won one game in the last six vs GB. Right now GB is not right. DET needs to play better DEF, period. Firing coaches doesn’t make them better if the same players are making the same mistakes. CHI needs to keep winning @HOME because the rest of their schedule is very tough @HOME. CHI #1 RUSH OFF vs DET #31 RUSH DEF. CHI needs to run all day vs DET. They need to use RBs Montgomery, Herbert & whoever else to keep the DET DEF off balance and thinking run while Fields can dump off some easy passes or go long. Lay the points here as DET typically doesn’t play well outside their DOME.
THE PICK: CHI-2 ½
Denver Broncos (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-3), (6-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS DEN+3
LW, on SNF even w/o QB Ryan Tannehill, TENN made it a show. If it wasn’t for the heroics of KC Pat Mahomes, TENN would have had the win. RB Derrick Henry is in full form and rushed for 115yds and 2TDS on 15carries. TENN QB Malik Willis was a game time decision and I felt with him at the helm TENN didn’t have a chance. He threw for 5/16, for 80yds and was sacked 3x. He did however run for 40 yds on 8 touches. The game was closest than anyone probably imagined. The TENN DEF held KC rushers in check but they couldn’t keep KC QB Mahomes in check as he rushed for 63yds on 6 attempts with 1TD. LW, before their bye, DEN was @JAGS in London. JAGS took a 10-0 lead but DEN clawed their way back and needed a td late in the game to get the victory. DEN QB Russell Wilson had a so-so game with 1INT. Wilson threw 1/3 of his passes to his RBs which shows that the DEN receivers were not getting separation, which has been a big problem this season. L8 DEN vs TENN, DEN 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. DEN 11-4 ATS since 2007 wk after the bye. DEN 34-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 27-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 1-7-1 ATS before LV. TENN 24-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 29-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. RB Derrick Henry can wear a team down as the game goes on. He can take over a game if he gets started and KC had to play catchup mode LW vs TENN. TENN HC Mike Vrabel is a very good coach and he goes with his strengths. TENN #8 RUSH OFF vs DEN #21 RUSH DEF. Not having LB Bradley Chubb is a big whole on DEF for DEN that TENN will certainly try to exploit. DEN has been a mess and beating the JAGS before their bye is not impressive. That was a must win and they needed a td in the last 2:00 of the game to win. If DEN goes down early in this game, TENN has the DEF to tighten things up. DEN has been a mess this year thanks to HC Nathaniel Hackett. He is in way over his head and if DEN ends the season really bad, he may be gone. TENN is on a bounceback and trying to establish distance from the rest of the AFC SOUTH. That division is very bad but, someone has to win it. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: TENN-3
Jacksonville Jags (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ KC Chiefs (6-2), (3-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (0-4) ATS JAGS+9 ½
LW, JAGS were @HOME vs LV and were down 17-0 before they woke up. They ended up beating LV 27-20. For the JAGS it was good that they didn’t give up even though it was against LV. JAGS RB Travis Etienne rushed for 109yds and 2tds on 28 carries in the comeback win. For one time when JAGS were down, they didn’t panic and came back with a nice win. Why can’t they play like that every week? The score was LV 20-10 at the half but JAGS made adjustments and held LV to 0pts in the 2nd half and in turn scored 17 unanswered pts to win. On SNF, KC took a TENN team w/o their QB Ryan Tannehill for granted. TENN was up 14-9 at the half and TENN RB Derrick Henry had 2tds. With QB Malik Willis at the helm for TENN you had to think that KC would just roll over TENN. But what happened was quite the opposite. The TENN DEF forced KC to punt 6x. KC missed a fg, threw an INT and had to settle for OT @17-17. KC barely escaped with a win @20-17. KC’s only real OFF in this game was QB Pat Mahomes. He threw the ball a whopping 68x and rushed for 63yards on 6 carries. KC had no run game outside of Mahomes and no contributors as well. Was the TENN DEF that good? L8 JAGS vs KC, KC 5-3 SUATS.KC 6-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 1-17 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 32-49 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 27-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 9-5 ATS before LAC. KC 15-11 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. JAGS 7-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. JAGS 25-23 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 39-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 3-14 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 4-8 ATS off SU DOG win. JAGS 4-13 ATS vs AFC WEST. From week to week, you don’t know which JAGS team is going to show up. All the JAGS losses are by eight points or less. They haven’t been blown out by anybody and they make you believe that they are turning the corner. Then they regress and it’s the same ole JAGS. If you look at KC closely, they win but they do it in a strange sort of way. On the ROAD they are unstoppable at 3-1 SUATS. Forty one points @ARZ, 41pts @TB & 44pts @SF. They had the one speed bump @INDY with a loss, 20-17. But, @ HOME, LAC by 3, LV by 1, loss vs BUFF and TENN by 3. Not all that convincing @HOME. JAGS RB Travis Etienne has secured the #1 RB spot after James Robinson was traded to NYJ and he has not disappointed. KC #5 RUSH DEF but they haven’t looked that good against top RBs. When you have a big lead, the running game goes out the window. JAGS need to establish the run and sprinkle in some passes. They also need to keep the KC DEF guessing. Etienne needs to have a big game here so Lawrence doesn’t feel the need to win it all by himself. JAGS HC Doug Pederson knows KC HC Andy Reid from his days at GB and knows his style of coaching. Pederson also knows Reid because he was the OC @KC under Reid from 2013-2015. This is sort of like student vs teacher. This should be a closer game than expected so I like the JAGS and the points. KC should win by their usual 3pts.
THE PICK: JAGS+9 ½
Cleveland Browns (3-5), (5-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (6-3), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS CLEV+3 ½
Before their bye, CLEV was @HOME vs CINNCY on MNF. This was all CLEVE and at one point the score was CLEV 25-0. I felt that something was not right on the opening drive by CINNCY when there was an INT deep in CLEV territory. Nothing went right for CINNCY after that and everything went right for CLEV. CLEVE QB Jacoby Brissett had a great game going 17/22 for 278yds, 1td, 1lost fumble. CLEVE ran the ball well, running over the CINNCY DEF like they weren’t even there. Brissett spread the ball around nicely, throwing to six different receivers. If he played like this in most of his games he would be a starter somewhere. CLEVE was 8-13 on 3rd downs which CINNCY couldn’t stop. The final score was CLEV 32-13. It even looked like Brissett was having fun out there. Good for him because he is a good guy. LW, MIA was @CHI and they let CHI hang around until the end of the game. CHI had two possessions that they either could have kicked a fg or scored a td and they would have won the game. MIA was up 21-10, 28-17 and even 35-25 before finally winning 35-32. Twelve of MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa’s passes were to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. He needs to spread the ball out more. L8 MIA vs CLEV, CLEV 5-3 SU & 6-1-1 ATS. CLEV 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 week after their bye. CLEV 11-13-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 31-24 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEV 21-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 7-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. No bye in 2017 due to storm. MIA 37-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 32-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 6-6 ATS after scoring 35>pts. MIA is showing teams that can win on the road BUT, having to come back @DET is not impressive. Then @CHI, they let CHI make a game of it by letting CHI QB Justin Fields run for 178yds. MIA should have won this game by more than 3pts but instead of kicking a fg that would extend the lead to six points and force CHI to get a td, MIA ran a play that was suspect and went nowhere. MIA has won games but they needed comebacks in two of their wins, and five of their wins are by 6pts or less. MIA is going to want to put their 1-2 RB punch on display and who to do it better to than a team who can’t stop the run. CLEV #22 RUSH DEF. MIA needs to get their run game going otherwise Tua may get walloped again. He is too small to keep getting walloped. Some of the QBs today would have never made it in the 1970s-80s because you could take a guy’s head off and it was ok. But Tua needs a decent run game to take pressure off of him. Look for more running this game and newly acquired LB Bradley Chubb to have more of an impact for the HOME crowd. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-3 ½
Houston Texans (1-6-1), (5-3) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NY Giants (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS HOU+6 ½
LW, HOU was @HOME vs PHILLY on TNF. HOU was BIG HOME DOG @+14. Everyone was thinking PHILLY and so was I. But I was also feeling that this could be a trap game for PHILLY. PHILLY may not have taken HOU seriously. For the first half PHILLY didn’t. The score was 14-14 at the half. It was because PHILLY missed a fg before the end of the 1st half that would have made the final score at least 31-17. Instead the score was 29-17. But anyway, HOU QB Davis Mills threw and INT that PHILLY eventually turned into points that turned the tide for HOU. Mills needs to stop doing that. NYG are coming off a bye. NYG 6-9 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. But before their bye, they lost @SEA, 27-13. This game was 13-13 in the 4th qtr but SEA pulled away with 2tds. The first td was on a long drive. The other was a fumbled punt return deep in their own territory. SEA needed just two plays to score their 2nd TD of the qtr and that sealed the NYG fate. However, the NYG DEF couldn’t stop SEA QB Geno Smith. L4 HOU vs NYG, NYG 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. NYG 4-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 4-12 ATS as a FAV in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 0-9 ATS as a FAV >3ptds in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 24-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 30-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYG 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs AFC SOUTH. HOU 23-14-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 26-19-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 7-7 ATS w/rest. HOU 4-12 ATS vs .750>opp. What troubles me about this game is a few things. The NYG are winning but their wins are very close. Their wins are such, @ TENN by 1, CAR by 3, CHI by 8 (largest), @GB by 5, BALT by 4, and @JAGS by 6. TENN in wk 1 was impressive because they came back nicely. The win vs BALT was impressive because they were down and stayed tough and created a turnover. But, now they are a big FAV? Plus, coming off a loss before their bye? HOU has a running back that could take over the game in Dameon Pierce. He was a find on a team that needs all the help they can get. He rushed for big yards last week vs PHILLY which takes a lot of pressure of QB Davis Mills. HOU #25 RUSH OFF vs NYG #25 RUSH DEF. Mills needs to take what the DEF gives him. His problem is trying to make something out of nothing. I feel that the NYG will win but not by a td. They will win by a fg and put a scare into the hearts of NYG fans. NYG will not take HOU seriously and will find themselves down. HOU can’t let NYG QB Daniel Jones take off and run. RB Saquon Barkley will get his yards but Jones cannot be allowed to make something out of nothing. HOU has nothing to lose in this game. The pressure is all on NYG.
THE PICK: HOU+6 ½
NO Saints (3-6), (2-7) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS PITT+2 ½
NO doesn’t impress me. I didn’t like them on MNF and I was dead right. There is talent on the team but, they can’t do anything with it and they don’t step up. BALT could have scored 40 points on NO if they wanted to. NO gave up 188yds on the ground to BALT who ran the ball 40x. The DEF for BALT stopped NO at every turn until NO got a dummy td to make the score BALT 27-13. PITT is coming off a bye and before that they were beaten badly @PHILLY, 35-13. PITT is living and dying with a rookie QB who has to learn that DEFs are not like in college. PITT had decent yds on the ground @PHILLY but it was in a total catchup game at PHILLY. PHILLY was in command on both sides of the ball. PITT is not in the same category as PHILLY. L4 PITT vs NO, NO 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. NO 38-30-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 41-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 22-21 ATS L43 as a ROAD FAV. NO 13-3 ATS AWAY off SUATS loss. PITT 7-8 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. PITT 9-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PITT 24-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 32-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 11-18 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 1-6 ATS w/rest vs opp off SU loss. PITT 9-5 ATS before div HOME gm. Neither one of these teams is going anywhere fast. PITT QB Kenny Pickett has 2TDS & 8INTS. He needs to spread out the OFF and make better choices. NO QB Andy Dalton is showing everyone he is just average. CINNCY wasted all their time and money on him and he took them nowhere. NO has won three games, wk 1 barely @ATL, wk 5 in a shootout with SEA and in wk 8 vs a hapless LV team. PITT has showed that they can compete. It went down to the wire @MIA in wk 7, as a HEAVY HOME DOG. They beat TB in wk 6 and they beat CINNCY in wk 1. PITT has had their moments and have shown that they can be tough and not taken for granted. PITT 9-4-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. PITT HC Mike Tomlin is a good coach and works with what he has. This is one of those games that I don’t see either team running away with unless there are multiple turnovers by either team. This is two terrible teams facing each other, so take the terrible team with the points. This could be one of those one point games either way.
THE PICK: PITT+2 ½
Sunday November 13th, 2022 4:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1), (3-6) ATS, (1-3-1) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ LV Raiders (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS INDY+4 1/2
INDY QB Sam Ehlinger was sacked 9x @NE last week. INDY couldn’t get anything going and the NE DEF were stopping them at every turn. INDY was 0-14 on 3rd downs. It was a calamity of errors for INDY as they punted 8x, had a punt blocked that resulted in a td, a missed fg and a PICK6. I think I covered everything. INDY couldn’t get anything going after just being down 13-0 at the half. LW, LV were up 17-0 @ the JAGS and lost 27-20. The JAGS. LV HC Josh McDaniels has proven again that he is in over his head. This team has regressed from any of the progress that they made from last season. The DEF is mainly part of the problem for LV. They can’t make any stops when needed and Carr is not a comeback type of QB. LV #28 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & # 26 PASS DEF. This was a wasted effort by WR Davante Adams who caught 10passes for 146yds and 2tds. L9 LV vs INDY, INDY 6-3 SU & 4-5 ATS. INDY 11-8 ATS 1 NL in 2nd of BB rgs. INDY 39-21 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 35-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 26-10-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 12-6 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. INDY 7-0 ATS as a DOG >3pts after scoring <14pts. INDY 18-5-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 5-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 12-3 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 9-1 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. LV 24-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 20-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LV 2-14-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <500opp. LV 10-6 ATS L16 vs AFC SOUTH. LV 2-17-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 0-13 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. These are two teams that are in total dysfunction. Really, INDY hiring Jeff Saturday as your interim HC with nine games left in the season. He has no HC experience except for three seasons as a High School Football Head Coach. I guess that qualifies as a good enough resume to be an HC in the NFL? Where’s my interview? LOL What does that say to the rest of the team? That you have given up? LV is pathetic too. How many games this season have they lost when they had a nice lead? Wk 2 vs ARZ, LV was up 20-0 and lost 29-23 in OT. Wk 5 @KC LV was up 17-0 only to lose 30-29 and last week. If INDY had a better QB & HC I would take INDY with the points but, that’s not saying much. LV should romp in this one like they did vs HOU. Ehlinger will give a gift to LV and we will get to see a Derek Carr fist pump. Lay the points here. LV needs a win here in the worst way. By the way, if LV can’t beat this INDY team up bad in the own stadium, they should just leave the NFL right after the game. Matchup I like, LV #19 RUSH OFF vs INDY #12 RUSH DEF. INDY hasn’t played many running teams so it’s a little deceiving. LV should go with RB Josh Jacobs to the left and to the right, he’s due.
THE PICK: LV-4 1/2
Dallas Cowboys (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS, @ GB Packers (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS GB+4 ½
GB keeps losing and QB Aaron Rodgers keeps talking. Who would have thought that he would throw 3INTS last week @DET? Two of them were deep in the red zone. Honestly, he looked like a Division 2 rookie out there. He made a monkey out of me because I thought they would crush DET and easily cover the -3 ½ . Rodgers hasn’t thrown 3INTS in a game since DEC 12th, 2017 in a loss @CAR, 31-24. DET has one of the worst DEFs in the NFL but they looked great vs Rodgers. The running game GB found vs BUFF, forget that. The RBs ran for a combined 66yds. Aside from them, Rodgers rushed for 40yds out of desperation, if anything. GB is in trouble. DAL is coming off a bye and before that they put a whooping @HOME on CHI. I liked CHI+10 ½ just to keep it close but CHI had a fumble that was returned for a td by DAL and that was the momentum swing of the game. DAL showed they can score points and RB Tony Pollard is picking up the slack for an underachieving RB Ezekial Elliott. If Pollard keeps it up, Elliott will be gone after the season. The DEF for DAL is also making plays as they keep pace with PHILLY. DAL #2 in the NFL with +0.8 turnover differential, GB is #29 with -0.6. That is a very big difference which turns into wins and losses. L10 GB vs DAL, GB 7-3 SUATS. GB 8-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 23-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 31-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 15-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs 666>opp. GB 29-11-1 ATS after div gm. DAL 17-9-1 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 11-4 ATS since 2007 off their bye. DAL 47-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 28-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 15-6 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DAL 8-0 ATS w/rest & revenge. DAL 6-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts /revenge. GB has a lot of problems that can’t be solved in a week. The mass exodus of the receiver corps in the off-season weighs heavily on this team and it shows. WR Samori Toure injured his ankle in this game after he made that unbelievable catch @BUFF the week before. We’ll see if he is available. But things just get worse for GB. GB #14 TOT OFF vs DAL #10 TOT DEF w/ #4 PASS DEF & #24 RUSH DEF. DAL did give up over 200yds rushing vs CHI before their bye so they are a little vulnerable there. DAL cannot let GB get comfortable rushing the ball and then Rodgers picking the DAL DEF apart with the play action pass. DAL needs long sustaining drives that keep Rodgers & CO off the field. DAL cannot turn the ball over but the DAL DEF must create turnovers. The last time GB was a HOME DOG was in 2017. That season GB went 7-9 SU & 7-9 ATS. They were HOME DOG 5x. They went 1-4 ATS as a HOME DOG. Losses were to NO, DET, BALT & MINN. They beat TB barely, in OT. You may see GB as a HOME DOG more this season going forward. By the way, this is DAL HC Mike McCarthy 1st game back @GB since he was fired. Do you think he wants to beat GB bad? Rodgers owned DAL with McCarthy’s backing. Not this week. Rodgers will be sacked 3x, minimum. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DAL-4 ½
Arizona Cardinals (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ LA Rams (3-5), (2-5-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS ARZ+3 ½
Tell me if you’ve heard this before. LAR are up 13-6, start to play conservative, then lose the game 16-13. LAR RB Darrell Henderson rushed for 56yds on 12 carries. He rushed for more than the whole TB team. At times, he looked like he might break one but was tackled before getting going. LAR Matthew Stafford was sacked 4x which brings his season total to 28 sacks. He was sacked 30x all of 2021. That’s a lot of pounding. Also, at times the DEF foe LAR knows what’s coming but they are completely out of position. A perfect example was the scoring drive by TB that won the game. No coverages, guys wide open and no pressure up front. They let Brady waltz down the field and score. LW, ARZ was in a seesaw game @HOME vs SEA. SEA won 31-21. Problem for ARZ is they can’t have their QB as their leading rusher. It’s a recipe for disaster. Take what the DEF gives you and make your play. L15 LAR(H) vs ARZ, LAR 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS. L19 LAR vs ARZ, LAR 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS. L15 LAR vs ARZ, LAR 12-3 SUATS. L22 LAR vs ARZ, ROAD 14-8 ATS. ARZ 31-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 41-46 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 27-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 5-10 ATS off SU FAV loss. ARZ 16-3 ATS after BB SUTAS losses. ARZ 15-4-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. 18-9 ATS as a DOG vs <500opp. ARZ 6-1 ATS as a DOG vs .333<opp. LAR 23-41-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 22-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 20-33 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. LAR 29-28 ATS L57 as a HOME FAV. LAR 3-18 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off DD SU div loss. LAR 8-22 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. LAR HC Sean McVay’s best coaching attribute is walking up and down the sidelines during a game. He’s terrible and doesn’t know what he is doing. In wk 3 these two teams met @ARZ and LAR won 20-12. ARZ had chances to get tds but had to settle for fgs instead. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast and ARZ is trying to get back on track. Well, at least appear that they have something to play for. LAR has swept the series in 2019 & 2020 but that was when the LAR were at least good. LAR #31 RUSH OFF has to find to get the run game going. Could it be Henderson? McVay is stuck on RB Cam Akers who is a head case. This might motivate Henderson to do better. We’ll see. ARZ #13 RUSH DEF will shut down the run. WR Cooper Cupp will get his 10catches and an end around but ARZ has to stop the other guys from making an impact. Put it all on Stafford and he will make mistakes. Take ARZ & the points here.
THE PICK: ARZ+3 ½
Sunday November 13th, 2022 8:20pm
LA Chargers (5-3), (3-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ SF 49ers (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS LAC+7
SF is coming off a bye. Before their bye, SF was @LAR and it was the CMC show. It was highlight film for RB Christian McCaffrey. He did everything except sell peanuts in the stands. LAR didn’t have a chance. He has uplifted the OFF and the DEF got a lift as well. The score may have been LAR 14-10 at the half but it was over. In the 2nd half, SF scored 3TDS while the SF DEF forced LAR to punt 4x. The final score was SF 31-14. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo also had a good game going 21/25, 235yds 2tds, 0turnovers. LW, LAC barely beat ATL @ATL. This was a seesaw game that no one wanted to win. ATL was up 10-0. Then LAC was up 14-10 at the half. Then ATL is up 17-14. Then we have mistakes by both teams and a final LAC 17-14. LAC scored 2tds vs ATL. Do you think SF will give up that much? The run game for LAC is unpredictable and can’t be relied on consistently. LAC QB Justin Herbert had a nice game going 30/43, 245yds 1TD, 1INT but did he really need to put up the ball 43x @ATL? L4 LAC vs SF, LAC 4-0, 3-1 ATS. LAC 9-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAC 10-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 35-25-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 36-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 5-15-2 ATS before KC. LAC 26-8-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG >4pts since 2004. LAC 10-2-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 2-13 ATS vs opp w/rest. SF 9-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 8-11 ATS @HOME on SNF. SF 4-10-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. SF 4-12 ATS L16 before ARZ. SF 6-15 ATS w/rest. Jimmy Garoppolo is a direct beneficiary of SF acquiring CMC because it takes a lot of pressure off him to do what he needs to do to get this team deep in the playoffs. He should be more relaxed and be able to see the field clearer thereby, making less mistakes. LAC #28 RUSH OFF vs SF #1 RUSH DEF. Since LAC hasn’t developed a reliable run gm LAC HC Brandon Staley develops a game plan that will ultimately fail. He relies on QB Justin Herbert too much to get this team to the endzone. Knowing this information, DEFs will adjust their game plan accordingly. Staley is another one of those young guys that is not a good coach and will ultimately be fired because somehow LAC will not get to the promised land even though they have a very good QB. His game plan is flawed. Look who they have beaten. LV by 5, @HOU by 10, @CLEV by 2, DEN by 3 and @ATL by 3. Look who they lost to. @KC by 3, JAGS by 28, SEA by 14. SF has a game plan that is now balanced and the DEF is pumped. The OFF is just getting started. SF should win here in a blowout unless they get a little cocky and turn the ball over. LAC should be playing catchup here but to no avail. They can’t get too excited. Lay the points.
THE PICK: SF-7
Monday November 14th, 2022 8:15pm
Washington Commanders (4-5), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-0), (5-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (4-0) ATS WASH+11
LW, WASH had the game won @HOME vs MINN. WASH was up 17-7 in the 4th qtr but, they let it slip through their hands. On their two possessions after their lead, QB Taylor Heinicke threw an INT that set up a MINN td and WASH then punted which set up a fg for MINN. The WASH DEF stopped MINN from getting anything on the ground but their PASS DEF gave up yardage when they needed to make a stop. Heinicke threw an INT at the worst possible time. WASH has only themselves to blame. LW, on TNF, PHILLY was a BIG FAV, -14 @HOU. HOU played like they had a chip on their shoulders. HOU played toe to toe in the 1st half vs PHILLY and it showed. The score was 14-14 @halftime. PHILLY may have been thinking about other games on the schedule and felt that HOU was just in the way. PHILLY did just enough to win, 29-17. But it wasn’t a convincing win because the DEF for PHILLY let HOU take the opening possession and march down the field for a td. PHILLY countered but in the end HOU beat themselves. L15, PHILLY(H) vs WASH, WASH 7-8 SU & 10-5 ATS. L27 WASH vs PHILLY, FAV 16-11 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs WASH, ROAD 20-11 ATS. PHILLY 12-2 ATS on MNF off SU win. PHILLY 18-6 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. PHILLY 32-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 33-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 43-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 11-4 ATS w/rest vs 600<opp. PHILLY 8-1 ATS as a FAV>5pts w/rest. WASH 8-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. WASH 4-11 ATS L15 on MNF. WASH 12-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 13-5 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 21-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 30-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 43-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 10-3 ATS AWAY vs 666>div opp. WASH 15-2 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 3-15 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 3-14 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. Everyone is figuring that PHILLY is just going to roll over WASH. I don’t think so. WASH should play their game and can’t make mistakes. On paper, MINN was better than WASH but, WASH should have finished the job. In this game on paper, PHILLY is better too but, WASH is coming off a game they should have won and let’s see how they bounceback after such a game. PHILLY #2 @POINTS PER GAME w/28.1. WASH #26 @POINTS PER GAME @17.7. This is probably where the spread comes in. WASH #12 RUN DEF is what forced MINN to go to the air. If they are able to stop PHILLY from running all over the place, they may be able to do what they did vs MINN and maybe even close out the game. PHILLY eased up a bit on TNF @HOU. When you do that, you give the other team hope. Division games are tighter than other games and I like the points here. In wk 3, PHILLY embarrassed WASH @WASH 24-8. There is some revenge in the water as Wentz was the QB then and Heinicke is the QB now.
THE PICK: WASH+11
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