2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYES: Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, TB Buccaneers & Jacksonville Jags

Thursday November 17^th, 2022 8:15pm

Tennessee Titans (6-3), (7-2) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ GB Packers (4-6), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS                                    TENN+3

LW, GB was down @HOME to DAL 28-14 in the 4^th qtr. GB came back to win 31-28 in OT. It was nice comeback by GB and it seems that DAL helped GB by throwing 2INTS that were later turned into 2tds by GB. GB WR Christian Watson had a very nice game with 4catches, 107yds and 3tds. GB rushed for a combined 207yds on 39touches which kept the DAL DEF guessing. It was a nice comeback for GB and we’ll see how they respond. LW, TENN was @HOME vs DEN. DEN has many problems but their DEF seems to keep teams in check. Ryan Tannehill was back at QB for TENN and he threw 2tds with 0turnovers in a game decided by 1td. TENN held DEN to 1td & 1fg in the 2^nd qtr and no points in the 2^nd half. DEN had 6possessions in the 2^nd half that resulted in 5 punts and 1INT in the 2^nd half vs TENN. Tannehill spread the ball around to 7 different receivers which kept DEN on its toes. TENN RB Derrick Henry was held to 53 yds on 19 carries and 0tds. But TENN got the job done, 17-10. L5 GB vs TENN, TENN 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. GB 10-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. GB 13-4-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. GB 38-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 32-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. 20-23-1 ATS L44 vs AFC. GB 6-8 ATS off SU DOG win. TENN 7-1 ATS on TNF vs non-div. TENN 10-8 ATS on TNF. TENN 37-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 32-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 8-15 ATS as a a DOG<6pts off SUATS win. Both of these teams are coming off nice wins. No one expected GB to win like they did but they did. Two years ago in 2020 @GB in wk 16, these two teams played on SNF. GB was a FAV-3 and it was a cold night in GB. GB jumped out to a 19-0 lead and TENN fought back to 19-14 but that would be a close as they would get that evening because GB would score 2 more tds in the 3^rd qtr and one more td in the 4^th qtr to make the final score, 40-14. TENN HC Mike Vrabel is from the Belichick mold and he doesn’t forget things easily. The DEF for TENN doesn’t give up much and they don’t make mistakes. TENN #23 TOT DEF w/ #2 RUSH DEF & # 31 PASS DEF.  These numbers don’t tell the whole story because TENN doesn’t give up many points. The TENN DEF needs to shut down Rodgers, plain and simple. All of a sudden Rodger’s favorite WR is Christian Watson. Well, TENN needs to shut them down like they did KC. GB won one game and they are looking for a turnaround. Well TENN needs to step it up. TENN needs to eat up a lot of clock and not let Rodgers on the field. I like TENN here.

THE PICK: TENN+3

Sunday November 20^th, 2022 1:00pm

Chicago Bears (3-7), (3-6-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-3-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6), (7-3) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (4-1) ATS                          CHI+3   

LW, CHI had a 24-10 lead @HOME in the 4^th qtr vs DET and lost. This is one of the three games that I am disgusted over. The CHI DEF then did a laydown and DET score 1td on 4plays. Then, CHI QB Justin Fields threw a PICK6 that tied the game at 24-24. In 3 minutes time DET tied it up. CHI then scored a td but missed the extra point leaving the door open for a loss. Sure enough, DET scored a td and kicked an extra point to win 31-30. CHI which rushed for a combined 258yds on 35touches could not be stopped. CHI beat themselves. The CHI DEF created no turnovers and they deserved to lose. LW, ATL was @CAR on TNF. I originally liked CAR but changed my pick to ATL. Never change your pick after you have made your decision. CAR was up 13-3 at the half and then coasted. CAR rushed for a combined 232yds on 47touches and 2tds. CAR ran all over ATL and CAR won 25-15. L7 CHI vs ATL, CHI 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. ATL 31-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 34-33-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 3-10 ATS L13 vs NFC NORTH. ATL 14-27 ATS L41 as a HOME FAV. ATL 1-8 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off SU FAV loss. ATL 3-9 ATS as a FAV vs 333<opp. ATL 3-10 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 0-6 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. CHI 13-5 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CHI 40-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 44-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 0-10 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG <7pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 5-18 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 0-8 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. ATL 6-0 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs NFC SOUTH. CHI is on a 3game losing streak and they are better than that. They have had moments when you think they will turn things around and then they have games like last week. They played MIA tough just to come up short. But ATL can’t stop the run and CHI #1 RUSH OFF vs ATL #18 RUSH DEF is the matchup here. ATL is a team that has some good players but if they play a team that is really good they will get beat. I am not saying CHI is really good but they are way overdue for a win. ATL can’t stop an OFF that can put up points. CHI has to clamp down on DEF. They can’t let ATL in this game. They need to take away their OFF. Take CHI and the points here. CHI should be able to run for at least 225yds this week ve ATL.

THE PICK: CHI+3

Cleveland Browns (3-6), (5-4) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (6-3), (4-4-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS                           CLEV+9 ½  

LW, BUFF was up 27-10 @HOME vs MINN. Well, what happened next was a calamity of errors by BUFF QB Josh Allen and the rest of the BUFF team. The BUFF DEF went invisible and played next to nothing DEF. Allen threw 2INTS and lost a fumble that turned a BUFF romp into a 33-30 OT win for MINN. Plus, an unbelievable one handed catch by MINN WR Justin Jefferson that a BUFF defender could have either intercepted or knocked away. The BUFF defender had two hands on the ball but Jefferson was able to take it away with one hand. BUFF should have never lost this game and when you give another team hope, you end up losing. Kudos to MINN for not giving up but BUFF lost another game that they should have won, period. LW, CLEV was @MIA. This game was manageable but the CLEV DEF could stop MIA in the 2^nd half and MIA won 39-17. This game was MIA 17-7 at the half and MIA came out right away with a td to make the score 24-7. MIA went on to score 15 more points and the final was MIA 39-17. CLEV couldn’t stop MIA’s high powered OFF and they couldn’t get their OFF to match MIA score for score. The stats for CLEV don’t look bad but they were playing catchup the whole game. CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett didn’t turn the ball over and was 22/35 but it was an uphill battle that CLEVE couldn’t win. L10 BUFF vs CLEV, CLEV 5-5 SU 7 4-5-1 ATS. CLEV 7-17-1 ATS in2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 31-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEV 21-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 8-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs non-div opp. CLEV 2-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG 7>pts. CLEV 7-0 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CLEV 4-0 ATS vs opp off SU HOME FAV loss. BUFF 10-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 6-8 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 4-8 ATS as a FAV <10pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 37-24 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 31-21 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF has not looked good in their last three games. Josh Allen has 6INTS and 1lost fumble in that span, terrible. BUFF has had big leads in all three games and lost two of them. In the game vs GB they let GB hang around and almost make something out of it. At NYJ, it was like they got their lead and sat on it and played not to lose. Hence, BUFF lost. Now he goes against a CLEV team that is hungry with nothing to lose. Brissett knows that his days are numbered before Deshaun Watson gets the job back so, he needs to play well to show that he deserves a job somewhere. CLEVE needs to get their running game going on overload to take any pressure off of Brissett. He is not the catchup kind of QB and if BUFF gets a big lead here, I don’t see CLEV making any kind of comeback of course unless, BUFF decides that they played enough and start playing no DEF. Besides Allen, BUFF has no run game. The weather is saying a lot of snow for BUFF and if that happens, the game will certainly be closer than expected. I like the points here as BUFF wins by 5 or six.

THE PICK: CLEV+9 ½

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1), (5-4) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1), (4-6) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                 INDY+7 ½                                                                             

On MNF, PHILLY was @HOME vs WASH as a heavy FAV-11. I liked WASH in this game because it was a division game, WASH has been playing well and PHILLY was ripe for a loss. PHILLY turned the ball over 4x and WASH controlled time of possession by running the ball 49x for 152yds and 2tds. PHILLY did start the game with a 14-7 lead but, by halftime WASH was up 20-14. PHILLY had their chances in the 2^nd half but fumbled 2x leading to extra possessions for WASH and time off the clock. The score was WASH 26-21 when PHILLY tried one of those multi lateral plays to no avail and the final was WASH 32-21. LW, INDY QB Matt Ryan replaced Sam Ehlinger as the starter right before game time. Had I known that, I probably would have taken INDY in that game. Ehlinger has not been good and Ryan was well rested and does know the playbook. Well, INDY ran all over LV 30x for 207 yds and 2tds. The INDY DEF in turn held LV to 77yds rushing. Ryan only threw the ball 28x but was successful 21x with 0turnovers. At times he looked like he had all day in the pocket. LV briefly took the lead in the 2^nd half, 14-13 but INDY ended up winning 25-20 in a game that went down to the wire. L4 PHILLY vs INDY, INDY 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS. PHILLY 11-18 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. PHILLY 43-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 34-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 23-14 ATS L37 vs AFC. PHILLY 9-5 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 2-11 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 14-7 ATS vs 400> non-conf opp. INDY 7-9 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. INDY 11-5-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. INDY 29-40-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 36-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 6-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 4-14 ATS vs 400>opp off SUATS loss. It was actually good that PHILLY got beat on MNF vs WASH because PHILLY can always correct things and make themselves better. But, in the game they lost two players that are essential. On DEF, run stopper DT Jordan Davis is out and TE Dallas Goedert is out too. Both timetables for return are up in the air. With Matt Ryan at the helm, INDY has a better chance to see what they have on the team. After beating LV last week, they may be able to give PHILLY a run for their money if they watch the film from MNF. INDY does have the runners to keep the ball away from PHILLY and keep time of possession on their side. This is key to keeping the ball away from the PHILLY OFF.  INDY needs to limit Ryan’s decision making and the INDY DEF needs to make plays. PHILLY will probably win this game by a fg. But, I like INDY @HOME with the points.

THE PICK: INDY+7 ½  

NY Jets (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ NE Patriots (5-4), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                                       NYJ+3 ½  

NYJ are coming off a bye. Before their bye, they were playing @HOME vs BUFF. NYJ were a heavy HOME DOG @ +13. Well, NYJ were down 14-3 and it looked like BUFF was going to rout NYJ. But NYJ made some adjustments and created some turnovers and NYJ stunned the BILLS, 20-17. Probably the only people who saw that coming were the NYJ. I give them a lot of credit because the week before @NE, NYJ looked terrible. But with the BUFF team they didn’t get down and took care of business. NYJ rushed for a combined 174yds rushing on 34 carries and the NYJ DEF did the rest. NE is also coming off a bye. Before their bye, NE @HOME beat INDY 26-3. It was all NE as they sacked INDY QB Sam Ehlinger 9x. They stopped the INDY rush game for 78yds and this game was all NE. L13 NE vs NYJ, NE 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS. L15 NE(H) vs NYJ, NE 14-1 SU & 8-7 ATS. L24 NE vs NYJ, RAOD 12-12 ATS. L24 NE vs NYJ, NE 22-2 SU & 13-10-1 ATS. L22 NE vs NYJ, NE 16-6 ATS. NE 8-7 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. NE 31-26-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 37-38-3 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 29-19-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NE 2-6 ATS as a FAV 6<pts vs opp w/revenge. NYJ 28-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 37-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 26-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 10-14 ATS as a RD 4<pts. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. I like the NYJ in this one. They haven’t beaten NE either @HOME or @NE in a while so they are due. NE is not as tough as they have been but, they are no pushover either. NYJ cannot turn the ball over. In the last contest, NYJ QB Zach Wilson threw 3INTS. NYJ need to stick to what they did vs BUFF. Keep the run game going and the DEF needs to step up. NYJ #18 RUSH OFF was mostly done without RB James Robinson who adds a nice touch to RB Michael Carter. The DEF needs to put pressure on NE QB Mac Jones so he will make mistakes. NYJ #11 RUSH DEF will help put NE on its back. Take the NYJ here as they finally beat NE by 7pts.    

THE PICK: NYJ+3 ½

LA Rams (3-6), (2-6-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ NO Saints (3-7), (2-8) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS                                        LAR+3

LW, LAR was @HOME vs ARZ. I knew that if ARZ QB Colt McCoy was starting that ARZ would win. It didn’t matter for LAR if QB Matthew Stafford was starting. LAR is not getting the job done on either side of the ball. LAR ran for a paltry 66 yds and were losing 27-10 when they got a dummy td with :07 left in the game to make it 27-17. LAR QB John Wolford started this game and he turned the ball over 2x which led to 10pts for ARZ. But LAR was never in this one as ARZ built up a 17-3 halftime lead. I also knew that this was a revenge game for what happened in wk 3 when LAR won 20-12. Players don’t forget and ARZ took care of business. LW, NO was @PITT. But I knew NO doesn’t travel well. NO QB Andy Dalton had 2INTS that led to 7pts for PITT. PITT made some mistakes that let NO hang around but, unfortunately for NO, they couldn’t get anything going in the 2^nd half and lost 20-10. The NO DEF also gave up 217 yds rushing &2tds on 43carries. The NO running game ran for a pitiful 29yds. The NO DEF did get to PITT QB Kenny Pickett 6x. The OFF for NO needs to do a better job because on paper they have the talent. It is executing that is the problem. L11 LAR vs NO, LAR 6-5 SU & 7-4 ATS. LAR 12-7 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAR 17-40-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 26-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 7-4 ATS after ARZ. LAR 5-1-1 ATS as a DOG off div ATS loss. LAR 9-6-1 ATS AWAY after SU loss. LAR 11-4-1 ATS vs <333opp. LAR 10-0 ATS AWAY vs <333opp. LAR 5-0 ATS off SU FAV loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. NO 38-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 31-31-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 9-10 ATS L19 vs NFC WEST. NO 14-8-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. NO 14-2 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV <8pts off an SU loss. NO 1-7 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SUATS losses (last as a FAV). NO 9-3 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs non-div conf opp. LAR WR Cooper Kupp is out for a number of weeks and may be out for the rest of the season. This is a big blow to LAR because they have become too reliant on him to produce a lot of their OFF. Stafford is still in concussion protocol but even if he comes back, do you think LAR can turn around their season? LAR #32 RUSH OFF which puts so much pressure on the QB, whoever it is, to make something happen. NO needs one of those kick ass feel good games that puts them back in the right mood at least for a week. This is one of those games. NO has three wins this season. The only impressive thing about their win vs SEA is that it was against a team that is currently over 500. NO needs a win in the most desperate fashion. Look for multiple sacks of whoever the LAR QB is this week. LAR has too many problems to think that they could win this game. If Andy Dalton doesn’t have a good game, you may see Jameis Winston next week.     

THE PICK: NO-3

Detroit Lions (3-6), (5-4) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ NY Giants (7-2), (7-2) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS                                        DET+3 ½  

LW, DET was +3 ½ @CHI and were down 24-10. I liked CHI in this game. Let’s face it, DET doesn’t have a great DEF and that’s why they have been losing games. Well, the DEF stepped up and even had a PICK6 which helped them to a 31-30 win @CHI.  You never know but, CHI should have stepped up their DEF but, they got lax and DET went through it like a MACK truck. DET QB Jarod Goff was 19/26, 236yds 1td & 0turnovers. DET got just enough from their run game to keep the CHI DEF guessing. The momentum of the game changed with the PICK6 as CHI was leading 24-17 and the PICK6 made it 24-24. CHI then scored but missed the extra pt and DET marched down the field for a td and won with extra pt. DET scored 21pts in the 4th qtr. LW, NYG were @HOME vs HOU. NYG were the FAV @-6 ½ and I felt that NYG would win but HOU would keep it close. HOU had their chances to keep it close but blew it and NYG walked away with a 24-16 win. NYG weren’t losing this game unless there was a total collapse but NYG played a rush heavy game, rushing for 191yds 1td on 47 carries. NYG RB Saquon Barkley rushed 35x for 152yds & 1td. NYG didn’t turn the ball over whereas HOU turned the ball over 2x. L8 DET vs NYG, 4-4 SUATS. But, ROAD 6-2 ATS. DET 9-12-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DET 21-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 30-51 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 7-10-1 ATS after CHI. NYG 7-6 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NYG 25-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 31-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYG 10-0 ATS as a FAV <7pts vs NFC NORTH. NYG 1-8 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 0-8 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. NYG 6-18 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. DET is trying to salvage their season, again. Shades of 2021 where they started out 0-8 and then went 3-5-1 in the 2^nd half of the season. In those nine games DET went 7-2 ATS which showed they battled in every game except two blowouts. Is this deja vue all over again for DET? We’ll see. The matchup I like for DET is, DET # 6 TOT OFF w/ #8 PASS OFF & #11 RUSH OFF vs NYG #18 TOT DEF w/ #24 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. DET has an explosive OFF whereas NYG has to be careful with theirs aka QB Daniel Jones. If he gets too many opportunities, he tends to find a way to turn the ball over. Look for Jones to turn the ball over in this game and DET will capitalize, not like HOU. DET has not won three games in a row since 2017. This game could go down to the wire with a fg deciding it at the end but I like DET with points.

THE PICK: DET+3 ½

Carolina Panthers (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3), (4-4-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (0-3-1) ATS                  CAR+12  

BALT is coming off a bye. Before that they were @NO and it wasn’t even close. BALT was up 27-6 when NO got a dummy td late to make the score somewhat respectable, BALT 27-13. BALT rushed for 188yds while NO was held to 48yds. BALT QB Lamar Jackson spread the ball around to 10 different receivers which kept the NO DEF guessing all night. NO was playing catchup all game and it was over early. LW, on TNF I originally liked CAR+3 but changed my pick because I felt ATL was the better team. They both stink but CAR put together a show that made ATL look really bad. CAR rushed for a combined 232yds on 47 carries and 2tds. CAR D’Onta Foreman was on fire with 130yds on 31 carries and 1td. He has stepped into the starting RB role nicely since RB Christian McCaffrey was traded. QB PJ Walker injured himself in this game and will be out going forward. The CAR DEF still has a lot of problems and this team has major decisions in the off season. But for one night, they looked good. L4 CAR vs BALT, 2-2 SUATS. BALT 34-28-4 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 41-30-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 13-4 ATS as a FAV >1pt w/rest. BALT 4-11 ATS as a HOME FAV >10pts vs 400<opp. CAR 29-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 27-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 11-2 ATS off DD ATS win. CAR 19-16-1 ATS off DD SU win. CAR 8-12 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 7-7 ATS after ATL. CAR 11-5 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 2-8 ATS w/rest vs 500>opp. CAR 12-9 ATS off div gm vs 500>opp. CAR 8-0 ATS AWAY off DD ATS win. CAR 7-1 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. CAR is going with Baker Mayfield @QB this week because PJ Walker is injured. Mayfield is a total gunslinger and desperately tries to make something out of nothing. That is where he gets into trouble. CAR hasn’t won a game on the road and they only covered in one game which was in their division @ATL. BALT has played close games at home and they are due for a blowout win. They should be well rested for this game as well. BALT 9-5 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Jackson should be able to run wild vs a DEF that can’t stop anyone. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs CAR #25 RUSH DEF.  On the other hand CAR will try to run the ball but BALT will stop them cold and make Mayfield throw the ball when he doesn’t want to. BALT #3 RUSH DEF vs CAR #16 RUSH OFF. CAR RB D’Onta Foreman will try to run but the D-LINE for BALT will be right there. Yes, Foreman & CAR had a nice game vs ATL but that was ATL, this is BALT. Also, look for some easy scoring opportunities after Mayfield turns the ball over. Lay the points here as BALT rolls. 

THE PICK: BALT-12

Washington Commanders (5-5), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-7-1), (5-4) ATS, (0-3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS          HOU+3                                                                              

On MNF, I liked WASH+11 @PHILLY. WASH has been playing well and they had nothing to lose. This was a division game and they are always tighter than other games. I also don’t think PHILLY took WASH as seriously as they thought. The pressure was totally on PHILLY and there was no pressure on WASH. WASH went toe to toe with PHILLY and WASH won the game outright, 32-21. WASH also created four turnovers. Three lost fumbles and 1INT by PHILLY helped WASH control the game and win. Just when it looked like PHILLY might take the lead, the ball was knocked out of PHILLY WR Quez Watkins hands and recovered by WASH. This play was a game changer. At the end of the game it was WASH 26-21 and PHILLY did their lateral things on the last play and it ended up being a td for WASH, hence the score 32-21. WASH essentially stopped PHILLY’s run game while relying on their own run game to eat up a lot of the clock. It was a good win for WASH who don’t have that tough of a schedule moving forward and could end up with a playoff spot if they keep winning. LW, I liked HOU+6 ½ @NYG. All HOU needed to do was stay close @NYG. But 2 miscues in the red zone not only stopped that from happening but also stopped any chance HOU had at winning this game. HOU had a rare lost fumble by RB Dameon Pierce @the NYG 10yd line. It looked like HOU was going to score on this drive and make the score NYG 21-17 but that didn’t happen. Later, HOU QB Davis Mills forced a ball into double coverage that was intercepted in the endzone. These were two big mistakes that cost HOU the game. The HOU DEF did nothing to stop the NYG run game which generated 191 yds on the ground. L4 WASH vs HOU, HOU 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. WASH 6-3 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 7-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. WASH 15-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 31-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 8-5 ATS as a non-conf FAV. WASH 2-8 ATS after PHILLY. WASH 14-4 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 8-5 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. HOU 12-14 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. HOU 17-18 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 26-20-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 9-3 ATS as a HD <9pts off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke brings a different sense of mojo than Carson Wentz. WASH should stay with Heinicke if they want to win games. With Wentz, you don’t get that team unity that you do with Heinicke. WASH should keep Heinicke as the starter. WASH gets back DE Chase Young this week who will bring that something extra on DEF. HOU does have some bright spots on the team but for most part they are terrible and Mills makes the same mistakes every game. He tries to make something out of nothing which usually turns into a turnover. WASH #12 RUSH DEF should put this game on Davis Mills shoulders and he is bound to make mistakes. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: WASH-3

Sunday November 20^th, 2022 4:00pm

LV Raiders (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (1-3) ATS                                     LV+3

LW, LV was HOME vs INDY. INDY put Matt Ryan back @QB in place of Sam Ehlinger at the very last moment. It didn’t matter for LV because the effort was not there from some of the LV team on DEF. The game was a seesaw battle with INDY but LV didn’t make stops when they needed to and INDY won 25-20. LV QB Derek Carr had a good game going 24/38 248 yds, 2tds and 0turnovers. But INDY was able to run all over LV for 207yds on 30touches and 2tds. LW, DEN was @TENN in a battle of DEF. DEN scored 1td and a fg in the 2^nd qtr and that’s all she wrote. They did not score a sugle point in the 2^nd half and lost @TENN 17-10. The DEF for DEN kept TENN RB Derrick Henry in place but TENN QB Ryan Tannehill threw 2tds to lead the game. DEN punted 9x in the game in a game that had DEN up 10-7 at the half. L15 DEN(H) vs LV, DEN 8-7 SU but 6-9 ATS. L22 DEN vs LV, DEN 12-10 SU & 11-11 ATS. L31 DEN vs LV, ROAD 16-15 ATS. LV 9-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LV 37-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 39-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 34-21 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 2-14-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <500opp. LV 9-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt off SU loss vs <500opp. LV 11-10 ATS vs .333< conf opp. DEN 44-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 32-41 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DEN 29-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. DEN 3-11-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV 6<pts. DEN 3-15 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. DEN 2-12 ATS as a div HOME FAV <17pts vs opp off SU loss. Neither one of these teams is going anywhere fast and they have been major disappointments in 2022. DEN has an OFF that is terrible. DEN #22 TOT OFF w/#25 RUSH OFF & # 15 PASS OFF. LV has a DEF that can’t stop anyone. LV #28 TOT DEF w/ #21 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. LV DE Chandler Jones has also been a disaster with 0.5 sacks and 19 tackles in nine games. He has been a complete waste. And the effort is not there. The DEF for LV doesn’t put in the effort and the message from LV HC Josh McDaniels is not getting through. The team has two wins. One was vs HOU and in the 4^th week @HOME vs DEN. DEN has revenge on their minds here. DEN has also beaten HOU, SF & JAGS in London. They have lost a lot of games but the most points that DEN has given up was to LV in wk 4, 32pts. Take away the game vs LV and DEN has given up 17pts 4x for their max. This is a battle of teams with many problems and LV is looking at a major rebuild in the off season. However, lay the points here as DEN should rock. 

THE PICK: DEN-3

Dallas Cowboys (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (8-1), (5-3-1) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (2-1-1) ATS               MINN+1

LW, MINN was down 27-10 in the 3^rd qtr @BUFF. Everybody in the world, including I, thought that this game was over and it would be a romp for BUFF. MINN didn’t think so and they didn’t go away. They got up and scored 20 straight points before BUFF kicked a fg with :02 left to send this game to OT. MINN kicked a fg in OT and BUFF threw and INT to end the game for MINN and an unbelievable comeback, 33-30. MINN WR Justin Jefferson caught 10 passes for 193yds and 1td. He also made a one handed catch that took the ball away from a BUFF defender that will be on highlight films forever. MINN deserved to win this game. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had 2INTS but fortunately they didn’t turn into any BUFF pts. LW, DAL was up 28-14 in the 4^th qtr @GB and lost 31-28 in OT. It didn’t help that DAL QB Dak Prescott threw 2INTS that led to 14pts for GB. DAL HC Mike McCarthy must be so pissed because DAL had this game but blew it. The DEF for DAL didn’t show up when it was needed and DAL deserved to lose this game. GB was able to run all day on the DAL DEF for 207 yds on 39 carries & 1td. GB QB Aaron Rodgers completed just 14 passes but 4 of them went to WR Christian Watson for 107yds and 3TDS. L8 MINN vs DAL, DAL 5-3 SU but 3-5 ATS. DAL 17-10-1 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 14-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DAL 47-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 28-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 1-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs 666> conf opp. DAL 0-11-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs 666>conf opp. DAL 2-6 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. MINN 7-3 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. MINN 4-2 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. MINN 8-4 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. MINN 36-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 34-21 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 9-7 ATS vs NFC EAST. MINN 4-9 ATS off SU DOG vs .500>opp. MINN 4-13 ATS vs 666> conf opp. MINN 8-1 ATS w/conference revenge vs opp off SU loss. MINN is coming off a big high and DAL is coming off a big low. There is also a revenge factor for MINN because DAL has beaten MINN @MINN in 2020 & 2021. MINN should be able to run all day over DAL because their RUN DEF is terrible. DAL #29 RUN DEF, this was a problem for DAL vs GB and it will be a problem for them this week. GB didn’t make any mistakes vs DAL LW and DAL didn’t force any turnovers which is a problem. Cousins needs to make sure he doesn’t have any turnovers because DAL will capitalize on them. But MINN and the dome will be pumped. I like MINN to continue to win here because now they have something to play for because PHILLY lost and the #1 seed is in reach. This should be a good game but I like MINN to win.  

THE PICK: MINN+1

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4), (6-3) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                 PITT+5

CINNCY is coming off a bye. CINNCY 7-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, CINNCY was @HOME vs CAR. CINNCY was the FAV-7 ½ . I thought CINNCY would win but, I thought it would be a close game. I was wrong on the close part. CINNCY stormed out to a 35-0 halftime lead and never looked back. CINNCY RB Joe Mixon had 5 tds in the game and CINNCY won the game 42-21. LW, PITT was @HOME vs NO. I liked PITT in this game because NO has talent on paper but it doesn’t always show up on the field. PITT went run heavy in this game, rushing 43x for 217yds and 2tds. PITT took a 10-0 lead in this game only to see NO tie it up by the half at 10-10. The PITT DEF made some adjustments and pitched a shutout in the 2^nd half while the OFF scored a td and a fg while missing 2fgs which would have certainly put the game out of reach for NO. The final was PITT 20-10. But again it was NO who have played sloppy this season and have not lived up to expectations. L15 PITT(H) vs CINNCY, PITT 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS. L24 PITT vs CINNCY, FAV 12-11-1 ATS. L21 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 15-6 SU & 12-9 ATS. L31 CINNCY vs PITT, PITT 19-11-1 ATS. CINNCY 9-10-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CINNCY 34-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 22-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CINNCY 27-31 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 7-8-1 ATS w/rest. CINNCY 1-4 ATS as a FAV w/rest. CINNCY 10-7 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 7-15-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-5 ATS vs div opp off DD SU win. PITT 9-4-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. PITT 11-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PITT 25-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 34-24-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 33-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 20-6 ATS as a DOG vs >500opp. PITT 8-0-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp w/revenge. PITT 11-0 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs >500 opp. CINNCY has not had any SuperBowl hangover this season like LAR. In fact, no one talks about CINNCY as a team that may make it to the SuperBowl. But, they are the dark horse in the AFC as they beat teams on their schedule and continue to have a winning record. This game is a revenge game for CINNCY because PITT beat CINNCY @CINNCY in wk 1 in OT 23-20. In that game CINNCY had 5turnovers but they still managed to take the game to OT. People were saying that CINNCY is going nowhere, etc. They still have problems with their O-LINE but with QB Joe Burrow, it has become sort of manageable. PITT is just hanging on. They live and die with Pickett and the DEF at times for PITT can be burned. PITT #27 TOT DEF w/#30 PASS DEF. I like CINNCY to win this game but PITT will keep it close. The PITT DEF definitely gets a lift from DE TJ Watt. He had a great game vs CINNCY wk 1 and I see him getting at least a sack this week. This game has CNNCY winning by a fg. PITT will be pumped up for this game.  

THE PICK: PITT+5

Sunday November 20^th, 2022 8:20pm

KC Chiefs (7-2), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (1-3) ATS                                    LAC+7

LW, KC @HOME didn’t take JAGS too seriously and it showed. KC won the game 27-17 but I like JAGS +9 ½ . If JAGS didn’t miss 2fgs and made at least one of them, the final score would have been closer. JAGS weren’t winning this game but it could have been more competitive. KC was up 20-0 but let JAGS think they had a shot here. JAGS missed a fg at the end of the 1^st half which makes this a 7pt game at the final. KC did just enough in the 2^nd half to stop JAGS from getting close in this game. LW on SNF, LAC lost a game they should have won @SF. LAC was leading 13-3. The DEF for LAC was doing their job and it was LAC 16-10 at the half. But the OFF sputtered for LAC in the 2^nd half and scored 0points. While SF scored 1td and 2fgs to make the score SF 22-16. Lousy play calling is what did LAC in. This is a game they should have won but did not take advantage of. SF was not playing their game and LAC let SF back in. SF made some adjustments and kept LAC at check. LAC needs to be aggressive and that’s how they will win. L15 LAC(H) vs KC, LAC 6-9 SU & 4-11.  L31 KC vs LAC, KC 16-14 SU & 17-14 ATS. L31 LAC vs KC, DOG 20-11 ATS. L19 LAC vs KC, KC 14-5 SU & 11-8 ATS. L31 LAC vs KC, ROAD 21-10 ATS. KC 22-18-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. KC 33-49 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 21-30 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. KC 29-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 10-9 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 16-11 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 10-7 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. KC 17-4-1 ATS AWAY after BB Su wins. KC 11-4 ATS vs 500> div opp. LAC 11-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 12-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 4-7-1 ATS L12 a s a HOME DOG. LAC 27-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 24-29 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LAC 37-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 3-12 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs 400>opp. LAC 1-7 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts w/revenge vs 400>opp. LAC 3-10 ATS as a HOME DOG 3>pts vs opp off SUATS win. LAC 4-0 ATS L4 w/revenge vs 750>opp. KC is coming off an easy game and LAC is coming off a game they should have won. The last time these two teams met were in wk 2 on TNF @LAC and KC won 27-24. LAC QB Justin Herbert got hurt in that game and also threw a PICK6 that changed the outcome of the game. Fortunately LAC did come back with a td at the end for the back door cover. But the PICK6 gave KC a lead where LAC was playing catchup the rest of the game. Players don’t forget things like that and LAC needs to bounce back after the loss last week @SF. LAC #5 PASS OFF vs KC #25 PASS DEF is the matchup here. KC #1 PASS OFF vs LAC #13 PASS DEF. The LAC DEF has to get tougher. DE Khalil Mack needs to step it up. The secondary needs to create some turnovers. This should be a battle and I would be very surprised if this game was a blowout on either side. I like LAC and the points here.  

THE PICK: LAC+7

Monday November 21^st, 2022 8:15pm

SF 49ers (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS (Mexico)                    ARZ+8

LW, I liked ARZ+3 ½ @LAR for the sole reason that QB Colt McCoy is decent backup and could win a game here and there. That’s just what he did @LAR who themselves had a backup QB at the helm. ARZ got a nice game out of McCoy and some decent running out of their run game and were able to hold off the RAMS. The score was ARZ 17-3 at the half and ARZ was in control. It was ARZ 27-10 when LAR score a dummy td with :07 left to make the final 27-17. LW, SF had a chance to go up by 10pts @HOME vs LAC on SNF. SF had the ball with 1^st and goal at the LAC 8yd line but took 4plays to kick a fg and win 22-16. SF was a FAV-7 and all they needed was to walk in the endzone but couldn’t get it done. LAC had a 13-3 lead on SF but squandered it. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo was average in this game as was the rest of the OFF. The DEF made plays and helped turn this game around for SF. The SF DEF held the LAC run game to 51yds. The SF DEF also held LAC to 0pts in the 2^nd half. L15 ARZ(H) vs SF, ARZ 8-7 SU 7 6-9 ATS. L26 ARZ vs SF, ARZ 13-13 SU & 14-12 ATS . L12 ARZ vs SF, ROAD 93 ATS. L14 SF vs ARZ, DOG 9-5 ATS. SF 30-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 33-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 21-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 15-4 ATS on MNF. SF 16-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. SF 10-2 ATS on MNF vs 333>opp. SF 6-0 ATS L6 AWAY on MNF. SF 7-0 ATS after non-conf HOME GM. SF 7-1 ATS on MNF vs div opp. SF 10-9 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 11-14-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 11-7 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. ARZ 27-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 42-46 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 27-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 2-8 ATS on MNF. ARZ 1-8 ATS on MNF vs div opp. ARZ 8-4 ATS after LAR. SF is battling for a playoff spot behind SEA and ARZ is trying to stay relevant. Colt McCoy played decently vs LAR last week but ARZ shouldn’t bring Kyler Murray back until he is 100% from his hamstring. As for SF, their OFF looked stagnated vs LAC and they are looking forward to gaining some ground on SEA. SF held LAC’s running game to a standstill. SF #1 RUSH DEF vs ARZ #19 RUSH OFF. But SF can be beat in the air if you pick your spots. Both teams are coming off wins. ARZ ‘s win was a little more impressive because SF had to comeback and barely won. However, in a division game, things are usually tighter and I like ARZ with points here.

THE PICK: ARZ+8