2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 12
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 24th, 2022 12:30pm
Buffalo Bills (7-3), (4-5-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (2-2-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS DET+9 ½
LW, the CLEV-BUFF game was moved to DET. BUFF had not played well since their bye and were 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS. Even though this game was moved to an indoor facility and there were no weather elements to deal with, I still liked CLEV+9 ½ . BUFF found their run game vs CLEV, rushing for a combined 171yds. CLEVE seemed to be hanging around in this game until the very end and if they had a DEF the game may have been different. BUFF took a 31-16 lead but let CLEV get a td at the end for the back door cover and the final score, 31-23. BUFF QB Josh Allen didn’t throw as much and relied more on a new found run game. BUFF didn’t turn the ball over either which was good. LW, DET was @NYG. I liked DET+3 ½ and they didn’t disappoint. All of a sudden they are playing decent and the DEF is making stops. At the NYG, DET held NYG RB Saquon Barkley to 22yds rushing on 15 carries. The DET DEF was also able to intercept NYG QB Daniel Jones 2x and recover a fumble by Isaiah Hodgins. Two of the turnovers led to 2tds by DET. DET QB Jared Goff played smart ball and DET rushed for 160yds & 4tds on 37 carries. This took a lot of pressure off of Goff and he was able to spread the ball around to 6different receivers. It helped that DET didn’t turn the ball over to give NYG more chances on OFF. L4 DET vs BUFF, DET 1-3 SU but 2-1-1 ATS. BUFF 2-4 ATS on TNF off no-div opp. BUFF 6-5 ATS on TNF. BUFF 3-2 ATS as a FAV on TNF. BUFF 0-1 ATS on TNF vs opp off SUATS win. BUFF 11-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. BUFF 10-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGS vs non-div opp. BUFF 31-22 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 26-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 12-14-1 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 2-2-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. BUFF 11-7 ATS before NE. BUFF 1-8-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 10-1 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 0-4 ATS L4 as a FAV >3pts vs opp off DD SU win. DET 18-23 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. DET 2-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. DET 7-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DET 35-39 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 31-51 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 1-12 ATS as a Thurs DOG. DET 1-7 ATS on Thurs vs non-div. This is a big spread and the way DET is playing, this game may be a bigger battle than BUFF thinks it will be. Both of these teams have potent OFFs. DET #6 TOT OFF & BUFF #2 TOT OFF. This game will come down to some stops and turnovers. I like this game to be decided by a td. Don’t be surprised if some trick plays come out for DET to put the BUFF DEF on its heels. L10, DET on Thanksgiving, 4-6 SU & 5-4-1 ATS. LW, BUFF was a scoring machine in the 2nd half vs CLEV but it was CLEV and they have nothing to play for. DET has things to play for and jobs to keep and they don’t have that tough of a schedule going forward. This is DET’s SuperBowl. They are not going to the playoffs, so they might as well play tough here in front of the home crowd. I like DET with the points here.
THE PICK: DET+9 ½
Thursday November 24th, 2022 4:30pm
NY Giants (7-3), (7-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3), (7-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS NYG+9
LW, MINN was blown out @HOME by DAL 40-3. It was all DAL and no MINN. MINN kicked a fg and punted 7x. DAL scored 40points and punted 2x. The MINN DEF couldn’t make a stop at any time during the game. This game was 23-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off. Everything was going right for DAL on both OFF and DEF. DAL which was bad against the run, held MINN to a total of 73yds rushing & 0tds. DAL just has to keep the energy flowing. LW, NYG regressed a bit backwards. I knew they would have a problem with an all of a sudden energetic DET team. NYG were actually ahead in the 1st qtr 6-3 but DET settled down and beat NYG, 31-18. The last td that NYG scored was a dummy td late in the 4th qtr. NYG RB Saquon Barkley was held to 22yds rushing on 15 carries. NYG QB Daniel Jones threw 2INTS that was turned into 1td by DET. Later in the game, a fumble by NYG was also turned into a td by DET. Also, the NYG DEF didn’t put any pressure on DET QB Jared Goff with 0sacks and he was able to spread the ball around to 6different receivers. L15 DAL(H) vs NYG, DAL 10-5 SU & 8-6-1 ATS. L27 DAL vs NYG, ROAD 14-12-1 ATS. L11 DAL vs NYG, DAL 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS. NYG 9-5 ATS on TNF. NYG 7-4 ATS on TNF. NYG 6-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. NYG 23-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 23-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 23-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 13-4 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 7-5 ATS before WASH. NYG 0-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG 9<pts w/revenge vs opp off SU win. NYG 2-10 ATS w/revs opp off SU win. DAL 11-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DAL 44-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 48-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 29-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 10-18 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 7-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU loss. DAL 20-8 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 1-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs .666>conf opp. DAL 10-1 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL 1-8 ATS as a HOME FAV on Thursdays. DAL 0-5 ATS L5 vs .500> conf opp off SU FAV loss. DAL is coming off that massive beat down of MINN, @MINN. They are looking tough to beat. NYG suffered massive injuries on both sides of the ball vs DET and are taking steps backwards after a nice start to the season. The schedule for NYG is brutal the rest of the way and every game is tough. L10 Thanksgiving games, DAL 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS, ouch! But, I see a big win here because it’s what they need to do to keep pace with PHILLY. Plus, it’s the NYG. NYG have lost two of the last three games and only beat HOU by eight points. DAL has a potent OFF. DAL #14 TOT OFF. Key for DAL is to use RBS Pollard & Elliott as their 1-2 punch to keep NYG DEF dazed and confused. This combo worked perfectly @MINN and MINN couldn’t stop it. Look for more here vs a depleted NYG squad. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DAL-9
Thursday November 24th, 2022 8:20pm
NE Patriots (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2), (5-4-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS NE+2 ½
LW, MINN was blown out @HOME by DAL 40-3. It was all DAL and no MINN. MINN kicked a fg and punted 7x. DAL scored 40points and punted 2x. The MINN DEF couldn’t make a stop at any time during the game. This game was 23-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. MINN couldn’t do anything right on either side of the ball. MINN needs to put this game behind them and focus on the next game. LW, NE was @HOME vs NYJ. The score was 3-3 with less than 1:00 left in the game. The NYJ punted and Marcus Jones returned the punt 84yds for the td and the win, 10-3. NE stopped the NYJ OFF cold but also couldn’t get anything going for themselves either. NE also missed 2fg. The NE DEF sacked NYJ QB Zach Wilson 4x but also dropped a couple of sure passes that would have been intercepted. NE QB Mac Jones was 23/27, 246 yds with 0td and 0INTS. NE was lucky to come away with the win. It was a defensive struggle to the end. L4 NE vs MINN, NE 4-0 SUATS. NE 6-1 ATS vs .500> non-div opp on TNF. NE 3-1-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. NE 1-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NE 38-29-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 30-17 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 23-12 ATS L35 as a DOG. NE 12-2 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 5-8 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. NE 10-4 ATS after NYJ. NE 20-5 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. NE 13-6 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. MINN 6-1 ATS on TNF off an SU loss. MINN 10-7 ATS on TNF. MINN 6-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. MINN 7-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. MINN 36-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 33-39 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 15-5 ATS @HOME off SU loss. MINN 8-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs .500>opp. After a big blowout, a team usually bounces back big the following game. I say usually because a god team will look at the film, make adjustments and add some plays to the play book. In this case I am looking at MINN here because of the embarrassing loss that was just handed to them at HOME. We’ll see what kind of HC Kevin O’Connell is and how his squad bounces back. NE is a good squad but their schedule is not that easy moving forward and they have many tests. NE HC Bill Belichick loves beating NYJ but, MINN is a different team trying to bounce back after a big loss. NE hasn’t beaten a team over .500 except the NYJ 2x. MINN needs to get their run game going here. I like MINN here and lay the points.
THE PICK: MINN-2 ½
Sunday November 27th, 2022 1:00pm
TB Buccaneers (5-5), (3-6-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (3-7), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS CLEV+3
LW, I liked CLEV+9 ½ @BUFF even before the game was moved to DET because of weather. CLEV played tough for the 1st half trailing 13-10 but the 2nd half was all BUFF. CLEV was playing catchup the whole game but to no avail. However, they did mange a back door cover with a td drive with :19 left in the game. CLEV DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it and BUFF moved up and down the field. TB is coming off a bye. Before that, they played SEA in Germany and built up a 21-3 lead before SEA woke up. SEA tried to come back but to no avail and TB won 21-16. TB QB Tom Brady spread the ball around to 8 different receivers and kept the SEA DEF on its toes. TB also found their run game with RBs Rachaad White & Leonard Fournette rushing for a combined 162yds on 36 carries and 1td. L4 CLEV vs TB, TB 3-1 SU 2-0-2 ATS. TB 11-14 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. TB 2-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. TB 28-25-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 40-29-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 26-25-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. CLEV 12-19 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CLEV 22-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 15-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 14-20-1 ATS L35 vs NFC. The season has been a disaster for CLEV and this will probably be the last game for Brissett as the starter at QB. But on top of that, the CLEV DEF can’t stop anyone. They showed that even with no weather conditions to worry about in DET as they were useless. That win vs CINNCY on MNF seems like a long time ago. They did everything right in that game and haven’t done anything right since. Now they play a motivated TB team that all of a sudden has a chance to make a playoff run. TB is coming off a bye. TB 8-6 ATS since 2007, the week after their bye. No bye in 2007 due to a storm. TB has only two tough games ahead of them and the rest are winnable. They could end up 11-6. I like TB here as they are rested and ready to challenge as they showed a little bit of it vs SEA. Plus, if TB can get their run game going, they should be able to keep the CLEV DEF on its heels. CLEV #23 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: TB-3
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (7-3), (8-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS TENN+1 ½
On TNF, TENN did what they needed to do to stop GB & CO @Lambeau field. I liked TENN+3 ½ to win outright because TENN doesn’t give up much in the way of points. Plus, I was looking at the revenge factor when GB embarrassed TENN on a cold TNF game in 2020. I told you coaches and players don’t forget. Anyway, TENN held the GB rushing game to 56 total yards and TENN QB Ryan Tannehill played almost perfect football with 22/27, 333yards 2TDS & 1INT. Even RB Derrick Henry threw a td which caught the GB DEF off guard. TENN never gave up the lead and held on nicely for a 27-17 win. LW, CINNCY went to PITT and beat them 37-30. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow had a fine day picking apart the PITT DEF for 24/39, 355yds, 4tds & 2INTS. PITT was actually up 20-17 at the half but CINNCY made some adjustments and PITT couldn’t get going on DEF. The score was CINNCY 37-23 when PITT scored a dummy td to make the final score look close. The PITT DEF did stop the CINNCY run game to a combined 62yds but they had no answer for Burrow. However, Burrow’s 2INTS did lead to 2PITT fgs but CINNCY was in control of this game in the 2nd half. L8 CINNCY vs TENN, CINNCY 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. CINNCY 13-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 35-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 45-37-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 8-11 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 8-4 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 6-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. CINNCY 11-5 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. TENN 14-7 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. TENN 25-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 33-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 9-15 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 9-5 ATS L14 off DD SU win. TENN 7-21 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. TENN 13-3 ATS vs .600> opp off ATS win. This is going to be the matchup. TENN RB Derrick Henry vs CINNCY. TENN #11 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY # #17 RUSH DEF. But, TENN HC Mike Vrabel will look to keep the CINNCY DEF on its toes. He doesn’t come out with usual game plan. Just when you think it’s going to Henry, he surprises you. Plus, Tannehill can spread the ball around to may different receivers. He has learned to be patient. Burrow knows how to handle pressure and he has shown it without WR Ja’Marr Chase. He can spread the ball around too and keep the DEF on its toes. I certainly don’t see too may turnovers in this game and it will certainly be a good game. Both are coming off wins but, I like TENN to win in a close one possibly by a fg. Take TENN here.
THE PICK: TENN+1 ½
Houston Texans (1-8-1), (5-5) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (7-3), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS HOU+12
LW, HOU had no shot @HOME vs WASH. HOU was +# but I thought there may have been a letdown by WASH after their nice win @PHILLY on MNF. Well, there was no let down and WASH & HOU didn’t disappoint. HOU QB Davis Mills threw another PICK6 and the score was 23-3 before HOU got a dummy td to make the final score look respectable, 23-10. HOU RB Dameon Pierce was held to 8yds on 10 carries. This game was 20-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. Before their bye, MIA beat up on CLEVE 39-17. MIA rushed for 195 yds but it was the RBs Mostert-Wilson show who combined for 185yds, 2tds on 25 carries. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa spread the ball around to 8 different receivers and it was MIA 17-7 at the half. MIA turned on the juice in the 2nd half scoring 3tds & 1fg to win 39-17. CLEV was playing catchup the whole game. The DEF for MIA also sacked CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett 3x. L9 HOU vs MIA, MIA 2-7 SU & 4-5 ATS. MIA 38-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 33-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 11-7-1 ATS w/rest. HOU 23-15-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 26-21-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 6-12 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. HOU 13-7-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 1-8 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. HOU will have a lot of people to look at after the season and QB Davis Mills is one of them. He keeps making mistakes in the way of PICK6s which takes HOU out of any game. But, HOU HC Lovie Smith is staying with Mills. What choice does he have? RB Dameon Pierce has a future and hopefully they can build around him. As for MIA, they are coming off a bye. MIA 9-5 ATS since 2007 the week after bye. No bye in 2017 due to a storm. They are well rested and should have a filed day vs HOU. MIA #2 PASS OFF vs HOU #14 PASS DEF. But if that doesn’t work for MIA, they could always use RBS Wilson & Mostert vs HOU #32 RUSH DEF. Tua & CO should put up 50points vs HOU and score from the opening drive. MIA is playing vs BUFF in the AFC EAST and they need to keep on winning.
THE PICK: MIA-12
Chicago Bears (3-8), (3-6-2) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-3-2) ATS @ NY Jets (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CHI+4 ½
LW, NYJ were in a tough defensive battle @NE. The score was 3-3 very late in the 4th qtr. Did it matter that NYJ QB Zach Wilson was 9/22 for 77yds? Yes it did because there were passes that were definite INTS but dropped. Not to mention the running game for NYJ was stopped cold. The only thing that kept NYJ in this game was the DEF. Well, NYJ punted with about :15 seconds left thinking OT. But an incredible punt return for a td by NE sealed the game for NE 10-3 and devastated NYJ fans in a game that they could have won. LW, CHI was @ATL in a game they also could have won. ATL is not that tough but this game seemed to be a seesaw battle of teams going nowhere. This game was 17-17 at the half and who would blink first would probably lose the game. Whoever made the first mistake, lost. Both teams made mistakes but CHI made the last mistake which cost them the game. I liked CHI+3 and with the score ATL 27-24, CHI QB Justin Fields threw and INT which sealed the game for ATL. But in the process Fields separated his left shoulder in the last series for CHI. L4 CHI vs NYJ, CHI 4-0 SUATS. CHI 9-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CHI 40-27-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 44-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 9-5 ATS before GB. CHI 14-8 ATS L22 AWAY vs AFC. NYJ 32-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 21-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYJ 7-10 SU & 7-9-1 ATS L17 vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 9-2 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ 8-17 ATS off SU DIV loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 8-4 ATS L12 after scoring <10pts. As a result of the last great game by NYJ QB Zach Wilson, he has been benched. Mike White will be the starter this weekend vs CHI. Is it an upgrade? We will see. His record as a starter is 1-3 SU. His only win was vs CINNCY last season. CHI QB Justin Field’s status for this game is up in the air due to his left shoulder. As of this writing, he separated his left shoulder and it hurts when he makes throws with is right arm. If he is not available, Trevor Siemian will be the starter. This information will come out after this posting. Even if Fields is playing, he is not running the ball as he normally would. He is not looking to further injure his separated shoulder. Plus, with Siemian in there, the running game for CHI takes a BIG hit. The NYJ DEF will be waiting. NYJ #8 TOT DEF w/# 9 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. CHI has a lost season and they are currently on a four game losing streak. CHI has beaten SF wk 1, HOU wk 3 by 3 and the wk 7 MNF upset of NE @NE. The game ve NE was the only game that CHI looked good. Wk 1 was vs SF QB Trey Lance. Wk 3 they bareley beat HOU. NYJ team is upset about the last game and CHI is going nowhere. NYJ actually have a shot at making the playoffs. CHI has nothing to gain and their schedule is not that easy the rest of the season. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ-4 ½
Atlanta Falcons (5-6), (7-3-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Washington Commanders (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS ATL+3 ½
LW, WASH was -3 @HOU. After the win @PHILLY, there may have been a little thought of a let down @HOU. After all, they beat PHILLY @PHILLY and were now facing HOU. Well, I should have had WASH as my PICK of the WEEK because WASH just keeps on rolling. This game was 20-0 at the halftime and you could turn your sets off there. WASH held HOU to 21yds rushing and didn’t give up a td until 3:19 left in the 4th qtr to make the score WASH 23-10. The WASH OFF rushed for 153yds on 40 carries and again controlled the clock. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke was15/27, 191yds, 0tds, 0turnovers. HOU QB Davis Mills had another PICK6 which helped WASH. The WASH DEF also recorded five sacks. LW, ATL was @HOME-3 vs CHI. I liked CHI in this game but it was a seesaw battle that went down to the very end. CHI was actually up 17-7 in this game but ATL battled back with a 103yd kickoff return for a td by Cordarrelle Patterson 2fgs and another td to win 27-24. ATL again relied heavy on their run game, rushing 33x for 149yds and 1td. ATL limits how many times QB Marcus Mariota throws the ball. He doesn’t throw much or long but so far he has been getting the job done. Mariota did spread the ball around to nine different receivers but it still came down to the wire vs CHI. L7 ATL vs WASH, ATL 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS. ATL 36-26-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 32-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 9-3 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. WASH 16-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 29-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 7-10 ATS as a HF 2>pts vs non-div. WASH 14-11-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 3-9 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 1-8 ATS as a FAV >1pt vs NFC SOUTH. WASH should keep going with QB Taylor Heinicke over Carson Wentz, even if Wentz is completely healthy. Wentz doesn’t bring much to the table except being a distraction to the team. Heinicke is hungry and looking to show that he belongs. ATL barely beat CHI and they lost TE Kyle Pitts with a knee injury for possibly the rest of the season. DL Ta’Quon Graham was also lost for ATL. WASH is playing at a different level than ATL right now and taking one game at a time. Who has ATL beaten? @SEA, vs CLEV, vs SF, vs CAR & vs CHI. Ony the win vs SF was by more than 4pts. You don’t know what you are getting week to week with ATL. WASH #9 DEF vs ATL #26 TOT OFF. ATL #3 RUSH OFF vs WASH #6 RUSH DEF. WASH was able to stop the high powered PHILLY OFF and create some turnovers. Why can’t they do it vs ATL? WASH cannot turn the ball over but look for them to create some turnovers vs ATL. ATL has not played well on the road and it could be cold this SUN. Mariota is a lot like PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts. WASH needs to keep Mariota in check like they did Hurts. Lay the points here as WASH rolls on.
THE PICK: WASH-3 ½
Denver Broncos (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-8), (5-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS CAR+2 ½
LW, DEN was up 10-0 @HOME vs LV. They squandered the lead and lost in OT 22-16. The DEF for DEN couldn’t make a stop when they needed to and LV WR Davante Adams couldn’t be covered. In fact, when he caught the winning td in OT, no one was near him for 20yds. He could have crawled into the endzone. The OFF for DEN has been horrible and it’s been a challenge for them to score points. DEN has played three games that went to OT and they are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS. DEN is 4-3 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. LW, CAR was +12 @BALT. I thought BALT would win big but, BALT only won 13-3. CAR’s run game was held to a combined 36yds. Mayfield threw his usual 2INTS but lucky for CAR they didn’t turn into any BALT points. The CAR DEF did stop BALT when they needed to and showed some good signs. But the CAR OFF was stagnant. L5 DEN vs CAR, DEN 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. DEN 11-8 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. DEN 15-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DEN 32-42 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DEN 34-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 36-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 28-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 3-8 ATS off DD SU loss v non-conf opp. CAR 2-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 4-15 ATS off DD SU loss vs .666>opp. 9-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). This season has been a disaster for DEN and DEN QB Russell Wilson has looked awful. CAR has gone through its own disasters but the run game has been solid with RB D’Onta Foreman. I see him breaking out big in this game and DEN not stopping him. Neither one of these teams are breaking any records and this game has the possibility of being a shootout. I like CAR being the HOME DOG here and they have a good chance at winning outright. CAR 3-1 SUATS as HOME DOG in 2022. It looks like Sam Darnold will be starting this game instead of Mayfield. This is CAR’s last game before their bye. CAR 6-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. After their bye, CAR can play spoiler. By the way, when two terrible teams are playing each other, take the terrible team with the points. DEN should find a way to lose. CAR should run all day.
THE PICK: CAR+2 ½
Baltimore Ravens (7-3), (4-5-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS JAGS+4
LW, BALT was a HOME FAV-12 vs CAR. CAR played tough and the game was 6-3 in the 4th qtr. BALT was playing tight and CAR was playing loose. The BALT OFF was stagnated and not moving the ball. CAR was in this to win it. BALT finally got a td and CAR QB Baker Mayfield tried to get things going and instead threw 2INTS. The final score was BALT 13-3. JAGS are coming off a bye. JAGS 9-5-1 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before that, they lost at KC 27-17. I liked them +9 ½ and they should have covered because they missed a fg with :00 at the end of the 1st half. KC was getting the ball in the 2nd half and the 3pts would have helped with cover. They also missed another fg which would have also helped in the cover. JAGS don’t win but they keep it close. This season started 2-1 and then went downhill from there. L8 BALT vs JAGS, JAGS 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS incl JAGS(H) vs BALT 3-1 SUATS. JAGS 19-20 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 26-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 39-31-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 13-4 ATS L17 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 22-13-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 9-6-1 ATS w/rest. BALT 19-14-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 41-31-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 34-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 7-12 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 5-10-2 ATS after allowing <10pts. BALT wins ugly. They win but, not by much. Only four games this season has the score been by more than a td. All the other games have been by 5pts or less. BALT has an OFF that has a lot of stars but sometimes they seem to be running in reverse. JAGS have many problems but RB Travis Etienne gives them hope. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence still makes rookie mistakes and will be evaluated after the season. All of the JAGS losses have been by eight points or less except for the game @KC. These are the matchups that I am looking at. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs JAGS #10 RUSH DEF. JAGS#7 RUSH OFF vs BALT #3 RUSH DEF. BALT is playing against CINNCY in the AFC NORTH and has to keep winning. BALT should ground and pound and wear the JAGS DEF down. BALT should be able to cover a 4pt spread in warm Jacksonville. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BALT-4
Sunday November 27th, 2022 4:00pm
LA Chargers (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-4) ATS ARZ+4 ½
LAC HC Brandon Staley is not a good coach. LAC @HOME is beating KC 20-13 and your next three possessions are PUNT, PUNT & a FUMBLE. In the meantime, KC kicked a fg, scored a td but fumbled. But the score was now KC 23-20. To make a long story short the teams traded tds and LAC came up short 30-27. Staley has a better than average QB but is not using him correctly and LAC is coming up short. Am I the only one that sees this? LW, ARZ looked dead from the opening kickoff. ARZ QB Colt McCoy & the rest of ARZ did not look the same as they did the week before @LAR. The DEF for ARZ couldn’t and didn’t make any stops vs SF and it was a bloodbath. SF scored at will and it was 38-10. SF could have scored 50points easily but it looks like they eased up a bit. ARZ HC Kliff Kingsbury is another bad HC and doesn’t know how to manage a game. ARZ was only down 17-10 at the half but the DEF let him down in the 2nd half and SF scored 3tds. L4 LAC vs ARZ, LAC 3-1 SUATS. LAC 11-10-2 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 1-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. LAC 9-9-1 ATS in 1st of NN RGs. LAC 26-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 36-25-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 22-9-1 ATS before LV. ARZ 11-14-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 10-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ARZ 5-12-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. ARZ 27-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 42-47 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 13-6 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 11-3 ATS as a non div HOME DOG >3pts. ARZ 7-11 ATS after SF. ARZ 2-5 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts. ARZ 9-1 ATS as a DOG <9ts after scoring 10<pts vs opp off SU loss. LAC has a lot of talent on their roster but it doesn’t always translate to wins. The play calling is suspect. ARZ has the same problem. Play calling is suspect and that gets them in trouble. But, on paper LAC has more skilled players than ARZ. Believe it or not, LAC has a chance at a wild card in the AFC WEST because LV & DEN are so bad. Honestly, it really doesn’t matter who the QB is for ARZ because they are completely out of it and have nothing to play for. McCoy got his one win, so he’s done. If Kyler Murray starts, you don’t know what you are getting. Lay the points here as LAC is usually good for a nice win after two straight losses.
THE PICK: LAC-4 ½
LV Raiders (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS LV+3 ½
LW, LV won a game they never should have won. I give them a lot of credit but DEN beat themselves. LV was @DEN looking for the sweep in the season series. DEN was up 10-0 when they couldn’t do anything right and let LV back into the game. LV RB Josh Jacobs ran for 109yds on 24 carries which took a lot of pressure off of QB Derek Carr. He was able to dissect the DEN DEF and find WR Davante Adams for 7 catches 141yds & 2tds. When Carr passed to Adams in OT, Adams didn’t have anyone near him for 20yds. Adams just walked into the endzone and the game was over 22-16 in OT. LV was able to sack DEN QB Russell Wilson 3x and make Wilson beat himself. SEA is coming off a bye and before their bye, they lost in Germany to TB. SEA made mistakes early and let themselves get behind TB, 21-3 SEA tried coming back but came up short 21-16. SEA QB Geno Smith had a fumble in the redzone that TB was eventually able to turn into a td. For Geno that has been uncharacteristic this season. He has been playing very smart and aggressive and SEA has been winning. In this game, the run game for SEA was also stagnant at a measely 39yds combined on 14 carries. SEA dug themselves a hole early and it was TB 14-0 at the half. SEA punted 5x on 5 possessions in the 1st half. In the 2nd half, it looked like SEA might pull it out but to no avail. It was definitely a game that SEA could have and should have won. L4 SEA vs LV, SEA 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. SEA 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. SEA 33-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 35-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 3-8 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500<opp. SEA 2-9 ATS @HOME w/rest. SEA 5-7 ATS before LAR. LV 11-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LV 38-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 40-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 5-7 ATS after DEN. LV 6-5 ATS AWAY vs .400> non-conf opp. LV 7-3 ATS vs opp w/rest. For SEA to be successful in this game, they need to shut down LV RB Josh Jacobs. If he gets going, Carr will be able to pick and choose where he wants to go with the ball. It will be over early for SEA. Once SEA shuts the run down SEA needs to put pressure on Carr so he makes mistakes. Carr didn’t make any mistakes vs DEN and he’s due. LV 3-5 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. For SEA, their DEF has gotten better and they are making stops. Also, LVWR Adams has to be shut down too. He has become a favorite for Carr and seems to always be open. They need to make stops in this game because LV has a way of getting momentum very easily. SEA #12 TOT OFF vs LV #27 TOT DEF w/ #24 PASS DEF. For the SEA OFF, Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a nice surprise and has been able to take a lot of pressure off of Geno because of his successful running. He needs to get going in this game and establish the run so Geno can dissect the LV secondary. Lay the points here as SEA gets going and bounce back after their loss. SEA should win a by a td.
THE PICK: SEA -3 ½
LA Rams (3-7), (2-7-1) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-2-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (8-2), (4-6) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (1-4) ATS LAR+15 ½
LW, LAR were ahead 14-10 at the half @NO. But that was it. NO scored 17pts in the 2nd half and LAR managed only 2fgs in the 4th qtr and lost 27-20. But, LAR lost QB Matthew Stafford to what appeared to be a concussion. We will see what happens but if it is a head injury he will be out. QB Bryce Perkins came in and he is more of a runner than a passer. There were no turnovers by either the LAR or NO but the DEF for LAR couldn’t stop NO. LAR did have a combined 4 sacks but NO QB Andy Dalton was almost perfect going 21/25, 260 yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. LAR DEF held NO to 88yds on the ground but couldn’t stop the passes. On SNF, KC was @LAC with KC the FAV @-7. I liked LAC+7 because I knew it would be a battle. This was a seesaw battle and LAC had their chances. But with suspect play calling by LAC, they let KC hang around so that they could win it in the last minute. KC did just that and won it 30-27. KC didn’t cover as I figured. However, KC used their run game to eat up the clock and they rushed for a combined 163yds on 27 carries. KC RB Isiah Pacheco is supplanting himself as the #1 KC RB. KC QB Pat Mahomes was his usual great self going 20/34, 329yds, 3TDS & 0turnovers. L4 KC vs LAR, KC 3-1 SUATS. KC 33-50 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 28-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 16-11 ATS asa non-div FAV >8pts. KC 3-8 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400 opp. KC 11-2 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 9-0 ATS after div gm vs .500opp. LAR 6-13-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAR 13-11 ATS L24 as a DOG 7>pts. LAR 9-6-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. KC is not a big cover team and tends to take it easy vs some teams. They barely covered @HOME vs JAGS and that was because JAGS missed 2fgs. Since 2012, KC has only been >.500 @HOME ATS in 2014 & 2017. All other seasons they have been .500<, not good. Stafford is out for this game and Wolford has been penciled in. He is capable of playing a decent game, he just can’t try to win on every possession. Who is going to catch it? Wolford needs to spread the ball around. He has not fell into the Kupp trap like Stafford, so he sees the whole field. KC is good vs the RUN. LAR #31 RUSH OFF vs KC #5 RUSH DEF. Plus KC #1 TOT OFF. But, LAR #10 TOT DEF. LAR needs to make stops and create turnovers for them to have any chance in this game. LAR are in desperate need of a win or a game that they can play competitively and at least come close. KC wins @HOME but doesn’t dominate. LAR has to think outside the box and attack KC differently than an NFC WEST team. The DEF for LAR is still there but the LAR OFF needs to get some points on the board for this game to have momentum for the LAR season. LAR HC Sean McVay needs to put together a game plan that will stymie KC. A few weeks ago, TENN was w/o a QB and led for most of the game and ended up taking KC to OT. TENN was a BIG ROAD DOG @+12 ½ . So it can be done. KC will win but not by more than the spread. Take the points here.
THE PICK: LAR+15 ½
NO Saints (4-7), (3-8) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ SF 49ers (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS NO+9 ½
On MNF, SF took it to ARZ, 38-10. SF was rocking on all cylinders and this is what I expected the week before vs LAC. But since they barely beat LAC, I felt they would barely beat ARZ because ARZ QB Colt McCoy looked up to par. Well anyway, SF could have scored 50points against an ARZ team that looked like they didn’t even want to be there. ARZ looked lost and tired and a host of other things. SF can’t get comfortable because they are long way from the playoffs. LW, NO @HOME beat a tired LAR team 27-20. It wasn’t even that close. LAR scored a dummy td at the end to make the final score look close. NO was down 14-10 at the half but they knocked LAR Matthew Stafford out of the game and LAR was off balance on OFF. NO took advantage and NO QB Andy Dalton was able to find a rhythm on OFF. He needs to get everyone involved because they need to do that this week @SF. L11 NO vs SF, NO 8-3 SU & 5-5-1 ATS. NO 10-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NO 41-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 31-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NO 10-10 ATS L20 vs NFC WEST. NO 20-10 ATS L30 as a ROAD DOG. SF 6-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. SF 27-40 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 34-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 7-3-1 ATS after ARZ. SF 2-13 ATS off SU DIV ROAD win. SF 6-3 ATS @HOME off SU div ROAD win. SF 1-8 ATS @HOME off SU win vs <.500 opp. SF 8-21 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 2-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. NO has a lot of talent on paper but it doesn’t always necessarily show up during the games. It needs to show up here. A blowout loss by NO here would show everyone that NO needs to be getting rid of players and rebuilding. Every position would need to be looked at. Yes, SF is on a roll but when Garoppolo is pressured, he makes mistakes. That is why he needs good pieces around him. SF has won three in a row but they barely beat LAC in a comeback win. SF HC Kyle Shanahan has a way of breaking things that aren’t broken. This is what might happen here. NO is a BIG DOG and SF may take them for granted. NO QB Andy Dalton is not a rookie and he certainly can’t play like one here. He made some mistakes vs ARZ a few weeks ago and NO was blown out. That can’t happen here. NO has won four games. WK 1 was a big comeback vs ATL. WK 5 was shootout with SEA. Wk8 was a blowout win vs LV and LW vs LAR. These are not impressive wins but they could play spoiler going forward. No one expects NO to show up to this game but SF has a way of tripping over themselves. I have a strong feeling that his game may get NO a back door cover. SF will win this game but it will be by three or four points. Turnovers will be big in this game and NO needs to get their run game going. Yes SF #1RUSH DEF but, you have to keep pounding and RB Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill are due. Take NO and the points here.
THE PICK: NO+9 ½
Sunday November 27th, 2022 8:20pm
GB Packers (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS GB+7
LW, PHILLY was @INDY. I liked INDY+7 ½ because of some changes INDY had made. INDY was actually up 13-3 but couldn’t hold on. PHILLY surged in the 4th qtr and beat INDY 17-16 with a td at 1:20 left in the qtr. INDY’s DEF played tough but couldn’t finish. PHILLY showed that they didn’t give up even though they were down for one of the only times this season. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts didn’t make mistakes and PHILLY was able to rush for a combined 141yds. LW, GB was @HOME on TNF vs TENN. TENN is a very tough team that doesn’t give up much and doesn’t make mistakes. The running game for GB was held to 56yds so the game fell on GB QB Aaron Rodger’s shoulders. Rodgers had a decent game but TENN made the stops needed to win the game outright. TENN was up 14-6 at the half. GB was able to score 1td & 1fg in the 3rd qtr to make the score TENN 20-17 but TENN added a td in the 4the qtr to make the final score TENN 27-17. The GB DEF did have an INT but GB wasn’t able to turn it into points. L10 PHILLY vs GB, 5-5 SUATS. HOME is 6-4 SUATS. GB 9-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. GB 24-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 30-40 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 11-6 ATS on SNF off an SU loss. GB 16-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 11-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. GB 14-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 15-6 ATS off DD ATS loss. PHILLY 7-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PHILLY 8-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. PHILLY 13-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 33-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 43-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY has hit a little speed bump the last two weeks and they need to get back on track. PHILLY is playing very well and their OFF hasn’t missed a beat whether it’s been Jalen Hurts’s feet, arm, running game or passing game. A lot of teams can’t seem to put pressure on him because he sees it coming. Also, Hurts has spread the ball around, not falling in love with one receiver and becoming dependent on him to make plays. Rodgers keeps talking like the season has hope. The season is lost for GB because they started off poorly and showed delinquencies at the O-LINE and a secondary that doesn’t step up. Rookie WR Christian Watson has stepped up and become a go to guy for Rodgers but he can’t do it alone. In this game, PHILLY needs to put constant pressure on Rodgers and can’t let him be able to look over the DEF when he wants. PHILLY #5 TOT OFF & PHILLY #2 TOT DEF. Yes, WASH did beat PHILLY @ PHILLY two weeks ago on MNF but hey had played PHILLY earlier this season and they are in the division. Rodgers keeps talking but GB doesn’t keep winning. PHILLY needs to and should be able to shut him down. PHILLY should win by 10pts.
THE PICK: PHILLY-7
Monday November 28th, 2022 8:15pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS PITT+2 ½
LW, PITT was @HOME vs CINNCY. PITT was leading CINNCY at the half 20-17. They were looking good up to this point. But, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow took over in the 2nd half and the PITT DEF fell flat. CINNCY scored 20pts in the 2nd half while PITT only managed 3pts until a dummy td with less than 1:00 left in the game made the final score look close at 37-30. The PITT OFF looked flat because of bad play calling and the PITT DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it. LW, INDY was @HOME leading PHILLY 13-3 but couldn’t hold the lead and ended up losing 17-16. I liked INDY+7 ½ @HOME and they were looking good but the OFF got stagnated in the 2nd half. In this game, INDY was held to 1td and 3fgs when they needed a td to extend their lead. INDY QB Matt Ryan was decent going 23/32, 213 yds but with 0tds. He was also sacked 4x.
L9 PITT vs INDY, PITT 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS. PITT 8-10 ATS L18 on MNF. PITT 12-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. PITT 8-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGS. PITT 33-36-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 25-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 8-13 ATS L21 AWAY in NOV. PITT 5-8-1 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 10-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts. PITT 20-8 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 14-23 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 8-3 ATS L11 vs AFC SOUTH. INDY 8-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 8-2 ATS as a MNF 2>pts. INDY 33-33-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 30-40-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 19-12 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 14-3 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY should win this game by a td. The PITT OFF looks terrible and the run game doesn’t look like it is going anywhere because too much pressure is on it. The PITT DEF was picked apart and should be again picked apart in this game. PITT #32 PASS DEF vs INDY #17 PASS OFF. PITT is going through growing pains with QB Kenny Pickett but he has to show progress and better decisions. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor should get going in this game and the PITT DEF will be on its toes. INDY Interim HC Jeff Saturday is doing a reasonable job considering what he has and what experience he has. I think PITT needs to shake up their game plan if they want to start winning. But with INDY coming off that close loss, they may be looking to bounce back here and PITT is in the way. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: INDY-2 ½