2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 13
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 13 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Arizona Cardinals & Carolina Panthers
Thursday December 1st, 2022 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (8-3), (4-6-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS NE+5 ½
On Thanksgiving, BUFF got away with one. They were HEAVY FAVS-9 ½ @DET. DET is all of a sudden, not a pushover and I knew this game would be tough for BUFF. It was a seesaw battle and DET actually led 22-19 in the 4th qtr and there was a lot of excitement in the last three minutes of the game but BUFF did come away with win 28-25. BUFF QB Josh Allen led the team in rushing but had 1INT. Fortunately for BUFF, it was very deep in DET territory and BUFF scored a safety when DET QB Jared Goff was tackled in the endzone. DET made it easy for BUFF in this game because they had a missed fg, the safety and a fumble. DET could have had the upset but they are not there yet and BUFF escaped with the win. On TNF, NE was @MINN and coming off the slim win vs NYJ the week before, I didn’t think NE would win vs a MINN team that was hammered by DAL the week before. MINN was on a big bounceback and NE just happened to be in the way. This game was toe-to-toe but MINN prevailed 33-26. NE QB Mac Jones had a good game but the run game for NE was stopped at 45yds n 13 carries. NE didn’t have any turnovers but the one INT by MINN, NE was able to turn into 3pts. NE was leading 26-23 going into the 4th qtr but couldn’t score anymore and gave up 10pts for the loss. L15 NE(H) vs BUFF, NE 11-4 SU & 6-8-1 ATS. L30 BUFF vs NE, NE 24-6 SU & 18-10-2 ATS. BUFF 2-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. BUFF 6-6 ATS on TNF. BUFF 3-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. BUFF 12-15-1 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 13-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BUFF 41-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 37-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 28-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 18-13 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 4-8 ATS L12 before NYJ. NE 5-1-1 ATS on TNF off non-div gm. NE 1-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NE 5-3 ATS as a HOME DOG. NE 38-26-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 24-15-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-25-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 22-13 ATS L35 as a DOG. NE 16-9-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 32-15-2 ATS after an SU loss. NE10-1 ATS off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 16-3 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. BUFF hasn’t covered in five straight games. During that time, they have also lost two of those games. BUFF 3-2 SU & 0-5 ATS. They are not playing with same fire that they started the season with. Last week vs DET could have easily been a loss. They were a HEAVY FAV-9 ½ on the ROAD and the game wasn’t decided until the end. It was a struggle. BUFF is becoming like KC & BALT, they win but, they win ugly. NE is coming off a loss and they are known for a bounceback in the Belichick era. I didn’t like them LW @MINN because of how they won the week before @HOME vs NYJ. NE barely won and it took a punt return for a td very late in the game to seal it. NE looked better but still lost @MINN. But, this is a division game and they tend to be closer especially with all the sloppy defenses. I like the points here as NE plays well as a HOME DOG. Look for BUFF to win by a fg if they do win. If NE wins, they will win by a td. I like NE here with points. Turnovers will be costly in this game.
THE PICK: NE+5 ½
Sunday December 4th, 2022 1:00pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (5-7), (7-4-1) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-1-1) ATS PITT+1 ½
On MNF, PITT was @INDY. I liked INDY-2 ½ & @HOME. But this was a game between two lousy teams which no one wanted to win. In the 1st half it looked like PITT wanted to win and INDY wanted to leave the building. PITT ran all over INDY for 172yds on 36 carries & 2tds. The score was PITT 16-3 at the half. PITT QB Kenny Pickett had a much better game with 0turnovers and spread his passes to 10different receivers. PITT WR George Pickens is slowly becoming Pickett’s favorite target. INDY was actually ahead 17-16 going into the 4th qtr but PITT scored a td to make the score PITT 24-17. There was with a lot of time left (9:55) and INDY couldn’t muster anything moving forward. LW, ATL was a tip away from winning @WASH. It was a very tight game and neither team was running away with it. Going into the 4th qtr, WASH was leading 16-13. WASH added another fg to make it 19-13 but ATL punted on it next possession. Then on ATL last possession, Mariota threw a pass that was tipped at the line and intercepted by CB Kendall Fuller in the endzone. The tipped ball could have gone either way but WASH was the recipient of the tip and ATL was defeated 19-13. The game was that close. But ATL had a 1st & goal at the WASH 2yd line and suspect play calling is what doomed ATL here. L4 PITT vs ATL, PITT 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. PITT 9-9 ATS in 2nd f BB RGs. PITT 28-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 22-15 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 10-5 ATS before div HM gm. PITT 11-21-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. ATL 7-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ATL 31-31-1 ATS @HOME in DEC.ATL 34-31-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 14-27-1 ATS L42 as a HOME FAV. ATL 4-11 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 5-0 ATS L5 as a non-conf FAV. These are two teams that are hard to predict. One week they look good, the next week, they look bad. INDY has a good DEF but couldn’t stop PITT, go figure. ATL #28 TOT DEF w/#21 RUSH DEF. The ATL DEF is worse than the INDY DEF and if PITT sticks to their heavy run game, they should beat ATL. ATL gave up 176yds rushing to WASH. ATL has a rush heavy OFF but that will not bode well for them vs PITT. PITT #6 RUSH DEF will stop ATL up front and make Mariota throw. ATL doesn’t match up well here vs PITT and even though they are coming off a loss, their deficiencies in the passing game are coming through. ATL RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson can’t do everything and he will not have a good game vs PITT. Take PITT here.
THE PICK: PITT+1 ½
GB Packers (4-8), (4-7-1) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-9), (3-7-2) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CHI+2
LW on SNF, GB gave it their all @PHILLY. In the 1st half, GB actually led 14-13 but it was short lived. This game had a lot of scoring and some big mistakes. GB QB Aaron Rodgers threw 2INTS in the 1st half that were turned into 7pts by PHILLY. PHILLY had a fumble that was turned into 7pts for GB. The score was PHILLY 27-20 at the half. But Rodgers would lead GB for two more series and 1fg. He left the game injured and with the score PHILLY 37-23. But GB QB Jordan Love came in and made it a game again. He passed for a td to make the score 37-30 and PHILLY only managed a fg. GB would get another fg and the final was 40-33. Love was 6/9 113yds 1td & 0INTS. The DEF for GB wasn’t there as they gave up 363yds on the ground, 3tds to PHILLY on 49 carries. Certainly, the run DEF for GB was not there. Good thing they are not playing against Fields & Herbert next week. If Rodgers is not healthy Love will be starting this week in place of Rodgers. LW, CHI was @NYJ but they were outmatched by a team that was on a bounceback from a big loss and looking to prove something. The DEF for CHI couldn’t stop NYJ QB Mike White or the run game for NYJ and this game was over in the 2nd qtr. CHI scored 0pts in the 2nd half and lost 31-10. CHI played catchup for most of this game to no avail. CHI QB Trevor Siemian hurt his oblique muscle in warm-ups but said he was ok to play. CHI scored only 1td early and that was it for CHI. They had no answers for a motivated NYJ OFF. NYJ QB Mike White spread the ball around to 10 different receivers for 315yds, 3tds & 0INTS. L15 CHI(H) vs GB, CHI 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS. L23 GB vs CHI, GB 18-5 ATS. L24 GB vs CHI, ROAD 13-11 ATS. CHI 15-15 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. CHI 8-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CHI 30-49 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 29-35 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 37-34 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 11-2 ATS @HOME w/revenge off DD ATS loss. CHI 5-12 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 13-20-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. GB 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. GB 8-11 ATS in 2nd o9f BB RGs. GB 18-4 ATS as a FAV <7pts in 2nd of BB RGs. GB 35-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 35-30-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 60-36-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 3-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs nn-div opp. So who is the better team here? LW, GB still managed to put up 33pts @PHILLY with a backup QB who may become the starter very shortly. GB QB Jordan Love didn’t miss a beat when he came in for Rodgers. In fact he looked pretty good. Rodgers is banged up badly and may not play in this game. Love knows the OFF and has a fire to play and play well. CHI put up a lousy 10pts @NYJ. CHI QB Justin Fields is probably out for the season with the separated shoulder. If a HC starts him in a season that is going nowhere, absolutely means nothing and he gets hurt worse, that’s a mistake that costs you a job. Yes, Fields out of the lineup takes away from the run game but, you will be able to see what you got in the backfield. RB David Montgomery is a viable RB that can get the job done. Though, his running mate RB Khalil Herbert is on IR. Whether CHI goes with Trevor Siemian or Nathan Peterman at QB it doesn’t matter. The run game for CHI is dead. The DEF for CHI hasn’t been the same since they traded LB Raquon Smith & DE Robert Quinn. GB still has good players and a core of young receivers who are proving themselves. GB Christian Watson is looking like a thoroughbred. This game has blowout written all over it. No bounceback for CHI who have already lost five straight.
THE PICK: GB-2
Jacksonville Jags (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Detroit Lions (4-7), (7-4) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (4-2) ATS JAGS+1 ½
LW, you have to give the JAGS a lot of credit. Not a little, a lot. In the last drive for JAGS that produced the winning td and a 2pt conversion, JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence was sacked and fumbled the ball. JAGS G Luke Fortner had the wherewithal to see the fumble and instinctively land and recover the ball, thereby being able for the JAGS to continue the drive. JAGS also converted a 4th & 5 at their own 20yd line which also extended the drive. The DEF for BALT was non-existent. They gave up passes that had JAGS receivers with no one around them. JAGS didn’t give up and they deserved to win 28-27. JAGS scored 18pts in the 4th qtr, BALT scored 15pts. BALT deserved to lose because they couldn’t stop a JAGS team with no RUN game. LW, I liked DET @HOME+9 ½ vs BUFF. BUFF has been playing just enough to win and DET has been playing like their lives depend on it. This was a seesaw game that actually saw DET leading in the 4th qtr. But they couldn’t hold on and lost 28-25. At times, the DET DEF let BUFF QB Josh Allen dictate the game with either his running or passing. The DET DEF needs to be able to make stops and turn the game around in their favor. DET needs to use more of their RB 1-2 punch of Jamaal Williams & D’Andre Swift. Goff was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers which helped the DET cause but in the end DET came up short. L5 DET vs JAGS, JAGS 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. JAGS 8-14 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. JAGS 33-40 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 25-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 4-40 SU & 9-35 ATS vs NFC. JAGS 2-16 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 4-10 ATS L14 off SU DOG win. DET 9-4-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DET 18-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 32-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 8-6-1 ATS w/rest. JAGS had no business winning that game because they were up against a top ten DEF. But they were not intimidated and did what they had to do to get the win. Unfortunately, winning doesn’t come easy for the JAGS. Just when you think they may be turning a corner, they lose a number of games in a row and are completely out of the playoff picture, again. DET is coming off a game they could have and should have won. DET made some mistakes and it cost them. When you make a mistake against a good team, they usually turn it into points. That’s what happened LW in DET. As for the JAGS, they didn’t give up vs BALT. HC Doug Pederson is a gambler and he gambled vs BALT and won. That was sort of like Jacksonville’s SuperBowl. DET is on a bounceback and they are HOME. They need to get their running game in order and take pressure off of Goff. For the JAGS, RB Travis Etienne hurt his foot in the game vs BALT but should be ready this week @DET. DET plays better @HOME than JAGS play on the road. Lawrence played very well without a running game but the DEF for JAGS will have their hands full with a multi talented DET OFF. I think there may be so meltdown for JAGS in this one as DET has had some time to correct a few things. It should be an exciting game as two teams definitely not going to the playoffs battle it out. It could come down to a fg at the very end either way. DET #8 TOT OFF vs JAGS #24 TOT DEF. DET #32 TOT DEF. This could be a shootout. But, lay the points here as DET bounces back.
THE PICK: DET-1 ½
NY Jets (7-4), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2), (6-4-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS NYJ+3
LW on TNF, MINN @HOME beat NE by a 33-26 score. MINN only had 57yds of rushing so it was left to MINN QB Kirk Cousins to carry the load. He didn’t disappoint going 30/37, 299 yds, 3TDs & 1INT. He spread the ball around to seven different receivers and didn’t have any fumbles. The INT that Cousins had did turn into a fg by NE that temporarily gave NE a 10-7 lead. But by the half, it was 16-16. The MINN DEF did make stops in the 4th qtr which led to the win. It was a needed win for MINN coming off that big loss @HOME vs DAL. LW, NYJ QB Mike White came in a did a great job vs CHI. Granted, CHI was without QB Justin Fields or RB Khalil Herbert which takes away a lot of the CHI running game. CHI did manage 127yd rushing but CHI was playing catchup for all of the 2nd half. CHI QB Trevor Siemian was starting and the team was not the same. White did his job throwing for over 300yds and 3tds while the NYJ DEF kept CHI in check. The NYJ won the game 31-10. It was a nice win for NYJ and they need to keep winning if they have their eyes on the playoffs. L4 NYJ vs MINN, NYJ 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. MINN 33-32-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 31-40-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 24-20-2 ATS L46 in DEC. MINN 9-11 ATS w/rest. MINN 2-7 ATS as a FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 1-7 ATS w/rest vs >.500 opp. NYJ 5-11-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NYJ 38-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 46-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 8-10 SU & 8-9-1 ATS L18 vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 9-7 ATS before BUFF. NYJ 10-15 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. NYJ 10-19 ATS L29 after scoring 25>pts. NYJ 5-16-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG <17pts vs opp off SUATS win. MINN is a phony. Look who they have beaten. They have beaten GB, DET, @NO(London) barely, CHI(PUSH), @MIA, ARZ, @WASH(barely), @BUFF, NE. MIA was vs a 3rd string QB. The BUFF game was where the BUFF team turned into no-D, NO OFF team that gave the game away. I give them credit for the NE game because NE is still middle of the pack and can beat some teams. The NYJ have a QB that brings excitement to the game. Mike White sees the field better than Zach Wilson and lifts his teammates do better. I like the matchup of CB Sauce Gardner on WR Justin Jefferson and let the rest of the NYJ secondary play the matchups. The DEF for NYJ gets to the QB and Cousins is susceptible to mistakes. The NYJ DEF has 12INTS & 34 sacks. NYJ #5 TOT DEF w/#8 PASS DEF & #12 RUSH DEF. Is the O-LINE for MINN so good that they can keep the NYJ DEF away from Cousins? He has been sacked 28x this season. That equals what he was sacked for all of 2021. He is on pace to be sacked the most times in his career. Some of those sacks resulted in lost fumbles. Look for that this weekend. White should have a good game this weekend vs a soft MINN DEF. I don’t see the NYJ getting blown out because they have something to play for. But we have seen stranger things this season. I like the NYJ in this game because they match up well vs MINN and NYJ should stop the run completely and put it all on Cousins shoulders. Take the NYJ here.
THE PICK: NYJ+3
Washington Commanders (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NY Giants (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS NYG+1 ½
The WAH DEF is playing tough no matter who they are playing. They are not giving up much and their D-LINE made a play vs ATL that saved the game for WASH. ATL QB Marcus Mariota threw a ball that was tipped at the line by DT Daron Payne and intercepted by WASH CB Kendall Fuller in the endzone that sealed the 19-13 win for WASH. I liked WASH-3 ½ in this game and it was my BEST BET of the week. How can you not ride the momentum that WASH QB Taylor Heinicke brings to this team? The WASH OFF rushed for 176yds on 37 carries but the WASH DEF gave up167yds on 29 carries to ATL. But it was major stop and win for WASH. NYG are coming off a Thanksgiving loss @DAL. I liked DAL-9 but we won’t go into the circumstances on how the score ended up DAL 28-20. Anyway, NYG actually had a 13-7 halftime lead in this game but didn’t score another point until :08 left in the game. NYG looked very good in the 1st half but DAL shut them down in the 2nd half and the NYG DEF couldn’t stop DAL at all who scored 21 straight points to put the game out of reach for NYG. Also, NYG DEF had no answer for the DAL run game that rushed for 169yds & 2tds on 39 carries. NYG RB Saquon Barkley was held to 39yds,1td on 11 carries. Because of injuries to receiver corps, NYG QB Daniel Jones is limited to who he can rely on to throw to. Also, the NYG DEF didn’t sack DAL QB Dak Prescott 1x but Jones was sacked 3x. L15 NYG(H) vs WASH, NYG 10-5 SU but 7-8 ATS. L26 NYG vs WASH, DOG 15-11 ATS. NYG 14-21 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. NYG 5-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 44-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 32-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 35-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 4-9-1 ATS L14 after DAL. NYG 5-0 ATS w/rest vs .700<opp off SU win. WASH 7-3 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 5-10 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. WASH 26-40 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 39-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 33-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 12-4 ATS off 3+ATS wins. WASH 9-5 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. The NYG have started out nicely but because of injuries and inconsistent play they are going backwards and are in jeopardy of going on a losing streak. WASH is going in the right direction having started the season on the losing side. WASH is getting stronger each week and are giving opposing teams more things to worry about. Also, is WASH DE Chase Young going to be available? He will bring more things for the NYG O-LINE to game plan against. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke gives the team added energy and belief that they can beat anyone. Hey, they convincingly beat PHILLY @PHILLY. NYG Daniel Jones has his work cut out for him as the only healthy reliable guy, other than him is RB Saquon Barkley. But, the two of them can’t do it alone. There are also injuries to the NYG O-LINE which makes Jones an endangered species. He will have pressure on him all game. WASH cannot let NYG run game get going. WASH #8 TOT DEF w/#8 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. Let Jones throw to his less experienced receiver corps. This is going to be a good game but I have to give the edge to WASH. With all the injuries to NYG at the receiver corps, I am surprised that WASH is not favored by more. But I will take WASH laying the 1 ½ .
THE PICK: WASH-1 ½
Tennessee Titans (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1), (5-5-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-1-1) ATS TENN+6
LW, TENN was @HOME vs CINNCY. TENN was @HOME as a HOME DOG +1 ½ . I felt that they had a strong shot at winning this game outright because the TENN DEF doesn’t give up much and they usually don’t make mistakes. This was tight game throughout and neither team had a turnover. It was 10-10 at the half. TENN RB Derrick Henry was held to 38yds rushing but had 79yds receiving. TENN could not muster a td on OFF except for a recovery from a Derrick Henry fumble that was recovered by TENN WR Treylon Burks in the endzone for a td. Other than that, TENN had 3fgs. But with 1:53 left in the game and CINNCY leading 20-16, CINNCY was setting up for a fg that would have made it a 7pt game but would have given the ball back to TENN. Instead, there was an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on TENN and CINNCY got to keep the ball and run out the clock for 20-16 win. That’s how close this game was. TENN had a missed fg in the 1st half that may have had a part in how the 2nd half was played. LW, on SNF, GB+7 was @PHILLY. I like PHILLY but, GB was playing toe-to-toe with GB. PHILLY even knocked out GB QB Aaron Rodgers but when QB Jordan Love came in he ignited GB and mounted a few scoring drives. PHILLY could have gone for a td late and made the score 44-30 which would have made GB ultimately go for tds. But instead PHILLY kicked a fg to make it 40-30. GB added a fg and tried to do an onside kick but to no avail. The final score was PHILLY 40-33. But in this game, PHILLY rushed for 363yds, 3tds on 49 carries. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts rushed for 157yds and passed for 153 yds & 2tds. Even though PHILLY won, their DEF did give up a lot to GB. This game was PHILLY 27-20 at the half and it was far from over. PHILLY ran 77 OFF plays to GB’s 46 plays and PHILLY only won by 7pts. GB made the most of their opportunities event though Rodgers threw 2INTS. L4 PHILLY vs TENN, TENN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. PHILLY 7-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 36-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 40-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 23-15 ATS L38 vs AFC. PHILLY 8-14 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 14-7 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 2-9 ATS as a non-conf FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. PHILLY 3-13 ATS as a non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. PHILLY 9-1 ATS as a FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 9-0 ATS as a non-div FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. TENN 27-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 28-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 10-3 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 8-1 ATS L9 AWAY vs NFC EAST. TENN is one of those teams that plays solid football. Their games are very tight and they usually don’t make mistakes. They have only given up more than 22pts in a game 1x and that was week 2 @BUFF. Other than that, they play control football. PHILLY #2 TOT DEF & #4 TOT OFF. TENN RB Derrick Henry is overdue for a big game. His last 100yd game was in the loss at KC in wk 9. I think he will bust out and give TENN the advantage. The O-LINE for TENN needs to do their job big in this game. Plus, the D-LINE for TENN has to play big too. This is like a playoff game for TENN and they have to come through. If they fall flat, TENN is not going anywhere in the playoffs. TENN vs playoff teams this season, 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. Big test for TENN, I like their chances. If I was TENN HC Mike Vrabel, I would yell and scream how important this game is. I hope TENN hears him.
THE PICK: TENN+6
Denver Broncos (3-8), (3-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (7-4), (4-6-1) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (0-4-1) ATS DEN+8
LW, BALT was @JAGS. Do I need to go over it? BALT deserved to lose and their secondary was the cause of it. It’s the JAGS for heaven’s sake? You want to go to the SuperBowl and you can’t even beat the JAGS? Plus, you have trouble beating CAR @HOME? BALT has had 5 lost fumbles this season which isn’t the worst but, they seem to come at the worst possible times. BALT had 2 lost fumbles vs JAGS that turned into 10 JAG pts. A sloppy game all around by BALT. LW, DEN was in over their heads @CAR. I knew that CAR would run all over DEN and they did for 185 yds, 1td on 46 carries. But DEN punted 7x, had 2 lost fumbles and 1missed fg. Just a calamity of errors on the part of DEN. You could say this for every game DEN plays. CAR played their game and it was only CAR 10-3 at the half. But CAR scored a td after DEN punted and the score was now CAR 17-3, then 20-3, then 23-3. DEN scored a dummy td with 3:19 left to make the final score CAR 23-10 but DEN really did nothing in this game to win. DEN QB Russell Wilson has to play better. L9 BALT vs DEN, DEN 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. L9 BALT vs DEN, HOME 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS. DEN 12-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DEN 22-29-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 32-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 2-7 ATS off BB SU losses vs <.500opp. BALT 42-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 40-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 9-10 ATS before PITT. BALT 9-10 ATS L19 vs AFC WEST. BALT 9-3-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC WEST. BALT 10-6-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. BALT 14-7-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & returning HOME. BALT 2-9 ATS @HOME off an SU FAV loss. BALT 4-13 ATS off non-div SU FAV loss. BALT 1-10 ATS @HOME off non-div SU FAV loss. BALT 12-28-1 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 0-8 ATS as a HOME FAV off non-div SU FAV loss. Both teams are coming off losses. DEN is on a 3game losing streak while BALT only lost one game. BALT has not looked good in a while. DEN has not looked good all season. This game has a lot of ugliness written all over it. On one hand, BALT has a secondary that is worthless. BALT #27 PASS DEF. CB Marcus Peters leads that crew of misfits. Then on the other hand you have the DEN OFF that is so bad and so discombobulated that if the team’s actual life depended on scoring a td, they would all die. How far has QB Russell Wilson fallen? He looks worse than any rookie QB out there in the past 50 years of NFL football. Ryan Leaf looks better than Wilson. If you don’t know who Ryan Leaf is, look it up. BALT plays down to their competition. If they are playing a lousy team, BALT plays lousy. BALT has not beaten a team convincingly @HOME all season. If Wilson could just put together a good game here, they could actually upset BALT. I hope Wilson is looking at film on the BALT secondary. If BALT does find a way to win in this game, then they will win by 3 or 4 pts like they normally do. The DEN DEF is tough and they don’t give up much. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#3 PASS DEF & #19 RUSH DEF. The key for DEN is holding the BALT run game down. If they can do that, they have a legitimate chance here.
THE PICK: DEN+8
Cleveland Browns (4-7), (7-4) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-9-1), (5-6) ATS, (0-4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS HOU+7
HOU is a bad team. I explained why last week. But after all that, HOU almost got a back door cover because MIA decided to take QB Tua Tagovailoa out and play “hang on” or “not to lose” after leading 30-0 at halftime. Had HOU made the two 2pt conversions that they failed at, the score would have been 30-19 and HOU would have gotten the back door cover (+12). HOU QB Davis Mills was benched on Gameday and Kyle Allen started for HOU. He was no better than Mills, with 2INTS that resulted in 7pts for MIA. HOU is a very bad team and at the onset was not a match for MIA but almost made a game out of it in the 2nd half. The run game for HOU was stopped cold at 36yds and the stats in the passing game for HOU are inflated because of the catchup mode for HOU and the lax DEF for MIA in the 2nd half of this game. LW, CLEV didn’t give up. On a 4th down play, very late in the 4th qtr, CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett found TE David Njoku in the endzone. Njoku made a spectacular one hand catch for a tying td that sent the game into OT. In OT, TB went three and out but CLEVE drove down the field and RB Nick Chubb scored a td on a CLEV beat TB through the air with timely passes and the run game which produced 189yds and 2tds. CLEV WR Amari Cooper seemed to be open on every play even though he dropped a big pass. TB should have won this game but they couldn’t make a stop and let CLEVE march down the field late in the game and in OT. L11 HOU vs CLEV, HOU 7-4 SU & 8-2-1 ATS incl HOU(H) vs CLEV, 5-1 SUATS. CLEV 3-8-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 3-1ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. CLEV 11-14-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 26-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 7-15-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 2-8 ATS before CINNCY. CLEV 4-16-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 4-10-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. HOU 12-15 ATS L27 as a HOME DOG. HOU 23-20 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 27-29-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 9-4 ATS as a HOME DOG <9pts off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win. CLEV is starting Deshaun Watson at QB. We all know the story. However, he hasn’t played in a game since wk 17 for HOU vs TENN. That was 1-03-21 and HOU lost @HOME to TENN, 41-38. He will be rusty and his timing will be off. CLEV has been terrible vs the RUN. But for some reason TB didn’t run much vs CLEV and decided to throw. I said in my analysis that TB needed to get their ground game running to beat CLEV but, of course no one listened. CLEV #23 RUSH DEF. HOU is a terrible team and they are already rumors floating around that HC Lovie Smith is gone after the season. HOU will certainly NOT beat CLEV throwing the ball 40x. But they will beat them running the ball 40x and sprinkling in some passes. A funny stat. This season, QBS & HCS trying to beat their old teams are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS. DEN QB Russell Wilson couldn’t beat SEA. CAR QB Baker Mayfield couldn’t beat CLEV. JAGS HC Doug Pederson couldn’t beat PHILLY. DAL HC Mike McCarthy couldn’t beat GB. Where does this one stand? This is the only game for the rest of the season that HOU has even a remote chance of somehow finding a win. The rest of their schedule is brutal with @DAL, KC, @TENN, JAGS & @INDY. I say JAGS because there is payback in that game for HOU having beaten them @Jacksonville in wk 5. But in a season where no lead has been safe, HOU has a chance of not only keeping this game close but capturing the upset. Everyone will be booing every time Watson touches the ball. Take HOU and the points.
THE PICK: HOU+7
Sunday December 4th, 2022 4:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (6-5), (6-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ LA Rams (3-8), (2-8-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (1-5) ATS LAR+5
LW, SEA lost a game that they definitely should have won. The DEF for SEA let the team down. They gave up 576yds of combined OFF by LV. That is an amount of OFF you only see in a college game not routinely in the NFL. The SEA DEF which has been doing a decent job this season did a total laydown vs LV. Maybe they were too relaxed after their bye? SEA QB Geno Smith made two mistakes in this game. The fumble that he had, fortunately for SEA, didn’t turn into points but the INT turned into a td by LV that temporarily gave LV a 21-13 lead. Then, late in the game, when SEA went ahead 34-27, the SEA DEF couldn’t make one stop to keep LV out of the endzone. When SEA got the ball back, they couldn’t do a thing with it. In OT it was a mess for SEA as LV missed a fg but got it back after SEA went 3and out. LV RB Josh Jacobs took the ball on one play and ran 86yds, untouched into the endzone and an LV 40-34 OT win. LW, LAR were up against it @KC. They were DOGS+15 ½ and all they had to do was hang on. I knew QB Matthew Stafford was out but QB John Wolford would be starting. With John in there at QB, LAR had a decent chance. But 3rd string QB Bryce Perkins was starting and all that had to be accomplished was a run game that could eat up the clock and maybe score some. The LAR DEF was decent, they made some plays and gave the OFF a shot. But, Bryce Perkins had 2INTS that led to 6pts for KC that made the score 26-10 instead of 20-10. KC played a little sloppy in this game and if LAR could have just put together a couple of sustaining drives and maybe got an extra td out of their effort, the score would have been closer and the LAR team could have walked away with their heads held high. Instead it was a disaster and going forward they face a SEA team that is pissed off an is looking to correct themselves. L15 LAR(H) vs SEA, LAR 9-6 SU & 9-6 ATS. L15 LAR vs SEA, SEA 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS. L26 LAR vs SEA, HOME 17-9 ATS. LAR 5-8-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. LAR 9-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. LAR 26-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 25-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 31-36 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 8-22 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. SEA 5-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. SEA 36-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 37-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 36-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 15-15-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 9-7 ATS AWAY off non-conf opp vs conf opp. SEA 19-4 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.600opp. SEA 8-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. After looking good at 6-3, SEA is now 6-5. The DEF was a let down in both games and maybe because that’s who they are. They have gone backwards. SEA #30 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF. Neither one of those are going tow in awards. But forutuantely for SEA, they play LAR who are even worse then SEA but on OFF. LAR #31 RUSH OFF & #25 PASS OFF is the definite recipe for a DEF that needs to get back on track at least for one week. If LAR HC Sean McVay is such a good HC, let’s see him devise some game plans that get him some wins the rest of the way. Or can this guy only win if the deck is stacked in his favor? I look for SEA to correct some things on DEF for this week and roll over LAR. If SEA can’t win this game by at least 1td, then they will not make the playoffs. They need to get a win here. Lay the points.
THE PICK: SEA-5
Miami Dolphins (8-3), (6-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (7-4), (6-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, MIA stormed out to a 30-0 lead @HOME vs HOU. MIA took QB Tua Tagovailoa out of the game and then coasted the rest of the way. HOU almost made a game out of it scoring 15pts and looking for more. The spread was MIA-12 and I liked MIA but, with DEFs being so lax in the NFL, anything was possible. Luckily, HOU did not get any closer. MIA will have its hands full this weekend. LW, SF was @HOME vs NO. SF was heavy FAV@-9 ½. I liked NO because I felt they could keep it close. They were keeping it close but a lost fumble by NO RB Alvin Kamara at the SF goal line stopped it from at least NO covering. Uncharacteristically, Kamara had another fumble that was crucial for NO. The final score was SF 13-0. SF only scored 1td and that was tipped by S Tyrann Mathieu into the hands of WR Jennings in the back of the endzone. SF was lucky that NO made mistakes that gave SF the opportunity to win. But the DEF for SF was the winner here. The SF OFF really didn’t do much. L5 MIA vs SF, MIA 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. ROAD 4-1 ATS. SF 6-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SF 32-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 33-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 13-17-1 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666>non-div opp. MIA 15-6 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RGs. MIA 25-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 31-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 21-24 ATS L45 in DEC. MIA 15-7 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 10-3 ATS as a DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. Who has MIA beaten? In wk 2 they came back and beat BALT @BALT. That was impressive. Then, the next week @HOME, they beat BUFF, also impressive. But since then, they lost @CINNCY, @NYJ & vs MINN. Then they beat PITT by 6, @DET by 4, @CHI by 3 vs CLEV & vs HOU. Their last five wins are against teams that aren’t above .500 and are not going to the playoffs. The DEF for SF has certainly stepped up in the last four games but again, who has SF played? They were @LAR, LAC, @ARZ in Mexico and vs NO. These are also not exactly playoff teams. They were beaten badly @HOME vs KC before these four games and it was a wake up call. Now they seem to have an OFF in sync BUT, they really didn’t do too much LW vs NO. If it wasn’t for a tipped ball, SF may only have won 6-0. It was the only td in the game and NO was playing tough DEF. Right now, SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #11 PASS DEF. But with MIA you have WRs Waddle & Hill that can get behind anyone. MIA #2 PASS OFF. The O-LINE for MIA is going to be crucial here as they defend against SF and their DEF. If Tua sees the blitz coming, he has to call another play and guys need to block. On the other side, MIA must shut down SF QB Jimmy G and make him make mistakes. This will be a very good game and should come down to the wire. This is another game on the schedule this week that is like a playoff game. By the way, the MIA RB tandem of Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson may be pumped up for this game just a little as they were both discarded by SF. A little payback may be in order.
THE PICK: MIA+3 ½
KC Chiefs (9-2), (5-6) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS CINNCY+2 ½
LW, KC was @HOME vs LAR. KC was a HEAVY FAV-15 ½ . I liked LAR because I felt that the DEF for LAR was still good and could make some problems for KC and make the game close. Well, I was right abut that but, the LAR OFF kept giving the ball back to KC. To make long story short, LAR with a 3rd string QB threw 2INTS late while the score was KC 20-10. KC converted both of these gifts to 2fgs and the final score was KC 26-10. KC covered by ½ pt. If LAR had some kind of OFF, this game would have been a lot closer but, KC didn’t play with any urgency. KC QB Pat Mahomes did however spread the ball around to 10 different receivers which made the LAR guessing who’s next? LW, CINNCY won @TENN, 20-16. I didn’t think they were going to win and I liked TENN in the game. But the CINNCY DEF shut down TENN RB Derrick Henry and stopped TENN from getting more than 1td. The difference in the game was CINNCY scored a td in the 4th qtr to TENN’s only scoring a fg. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow and CO are putting together a nice streak and focusing on one game at a time. L9 KC vs CINNCY, CINNCY 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS.(not incl playoffs). HOME is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS. CINNCY 12-8-3 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 12-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CINNCY 47-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 45-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 18-5-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 17-5-1 ATS L23 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 4-7-1 ATS off BB SU wins. KC 22-19-1 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. KC 8-10 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. KC 43-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 34-33-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 11-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 11-3 ATS off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. KC 18-9 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 17-5-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 12-4 ATS AWAY w/revenge. KC 12-4 ATS w/revenge. KC 1-9 ATS off non-conf gm vs opp off BB SUATS wins. CINNCY beat KC convincingly 2x in 2021. CINNCY beat KC in wk 17 @CINNCY 34-31 and then @KC in the AFC Championship game, 27-24 in OT. Is there some revenge in the minds of KC? KC plays one game at a time but CINNCY may have their number. Burrow is cool and probably studying the film on KC all week. The CINNCY DEF has to come up big. In last year’s AFC champ game, CINNCY made the adjustment for the 2nd half by having DE Trey Hendrickson as the spotter vs KC. It worked and he even had 1 ½ sacks in the game. If CINNCY uses that type of DEF they will win again. I’m also sure that CINNCY does not like being a HOME DOG. They are probably feeling disrespected and will be out to prove something. The fans will be fired up. I like CINNCY to win outright here. This will be a battle and a fun game to watch.
THE PICK: CINNCY+2 ½
LA Chargers (6-5), (5-6) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ LV Raiders (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS LV+2
LW, LV did a number on SEA @SEA. LV took advantage of a lax SEA DEF throughout the game and rang up over 550yds of total OFF. LV RB Josh Jacobs rushed for 229yds. This was another seesaw battle in the NFL this week and SEA was up 34-27 but couldn’t hold the lead. LV QB Derek Carr threw 2INTS that resulted in 10pts for SEA and SEA still couldn’t stop LV. LV drove the field for a tying td and in OT Jacobs ran 81 yds untouched for the winning score, 40-34. LAC was @ARZ and this game was a seesaw battle back and forth all afternoon. It was anybody’s game and in a tight game as this, it’s good if you have the team with points. I liked LAC-4 ½ because I felt that LAC needed to win this game by a td. All game they were chasing ARZ and were trailing 24-17 very late in the game. But LAC put together a drive very late in the game that produced a td with :15 left in the game. Instead of going for the tying PAT, LAC decided on a 2pt conversion. It was successful and LAC won 25-24. That was the difference in the game. LAC QB Justin Herbert was 35/47, 274yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. LAC was run heavy because they were playing catchup for most of the game. LAC only managed 65yds rushing while giving up 181yds on the ground to ARZ. L15 LV(H) vs LAC, LV 6-9 SU & 5-8-1 ATS 1NL. L24 LV vs LAC, ROAD 13-9-1 ATS 1NL. L26 LV vs LAC, DOG 18-6-1 ATS 1NL. LV 4-5 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. LV 28-42-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 32-55-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 27-40 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LV 7-10 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win. LV 13-14 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. LV 4-9 ATS as a div HOME DOG 3<pts vs .700<opp. LV 13-16-1 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. LAC 11-12-1 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 10-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAC 3-7-1 ATS as a FAV 2>pts in 2nd of BB RGs. LAC 29-35-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 35-31-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 36-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 11-0 ATS as a DIV FAV >1pt off SU win vs opp off SU win. This is another one of those games that could go either way. Is LV going to have over 550 yds worth of total OFF two weeks in a row? Is LV RB Josh Jacobs going to run for 229yds and 2tds two weeks in a row? The odds are against it. These two teams met in wk 1 @LAC and LAC won 24-19. I liked LV+3 in that game and they had many chances to get into the endzone but, LV just couldn’t get it done. In their L2 games it took them into OT to get the wins. At DEN, they were down in the 4th qtr and battled back, same thing LW @SEA. Can it happen three weeks in a row? The key for LAC is to stop LV RB Josh Jacobs. In six of the seven LV losses, Jacobs has been held to 78yds or less. In the loss @KC in wk 5, he rushed for 154yds. In that game LV had taken a commanding 17-0 lead before folding up the tent and losing 30-29. If the LAC D-LINE can stop Jacobs and force Carr to throw and more than necessary, he will make mistakes and LAC should romp. If the D-LINE for LAC does not do their job and shut down Jacobs, LAC will lose badly. It’s as simple as that.
THE PICK: LAC-2
Sunday December 4th, 2022 8:20pm
Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1), (5-7-1) ATS, (2-3-1) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS INDY+9 ½
INDY Interim HC Jeff Saturday is showing everyone that he is in way over his head. His time management issues in the MNF @HOME vs PITT left INDY with not enough time to do anything. INDY actually had the lead 17-16 entering the 4th qtr after trailing 16-3 at the half. But the INDY OFF couldn’t do anything and PITT scored the go ahead td and won the game 24-17. There was still 9:55 left in the game for INDY to come back but they did nothing in two series after that. It didn’t help much for INDY that QB Matt Ryan who is obviously done, lost a fumble and threw an INT earlier in this game. INDY also had a missed fg that added to their season kicking woes. On Thanksgiving, DAL WAS @HOME vs NYG. DAL was a heavy FAV @-9. I liked DAL because it was NYG and they needed to continue there hot hand and stay within reach of PHILLY. Well, with DAL up 28-13 and 1:13 to play, DAL was kicking a 46yd fg. If DAL made it, they would be u 31-13 and even if NYG scored a td with a 2pt conversion, DAL would be up by 10pts and would cover the spread. Well, DAL missed leaving the score 28-13. NYG turned around and scored a dummy td with :07 left and got the back door cover for a final score of DAL 28-20. NYG were up 13-7 at the half but it was all DAL in the 2nd half, who scored 21pts in the 2nd half until NYG scored that dummy td. NYG QB Daniel Jones was sacked 3x while DAL QB Dak Prescott was sacked 0x. The DAL DEF held NYG RB Saquon Barkley to 39yds while the RB 1-2 punch of Pollard & Elliott rushed for 152yds. Prescott had 2INTS in the game but fortunately for DAL , it only led to 3pts for NYG in the 1st half. L4 INDY vs DAL, DAL 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. INDY 10-4-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. INDY 37-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 33-29-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 27-9-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 15-8-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 14-5-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs<1.000opp. INDY 12-2 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. INDY 13-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. INDY 16-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. DAL 8-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DAL 30-44-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 29-35-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 12-12 ATS on SNF vs opp off an SU loss. DAL 2-7 ATS on SNF vs opp off BB SU losses. DAL 16-16-1 ATS on SNF. INDY is playing way over their heads. INDY already had the pumped up win the first week Saturday was announced. Then they lost a big lead @HOME vs PHILLY. Now they lose a game at home with outright playing dumb and their own suspect play calling. This week they will get steamrolled like Wiley Coyote. There is no reason to believe that INDY will get another win this season. Their easiest game on the schedule is wk 18 vs HOU but even that game is iffy. This game has blowout written all over it. There is nothing standing in the way for DAL in this game. This should be a scrimmage game for DAL where everyone scores, even the DEF. Matt Ryan is a statuesque QB and he should fold like a house of cards. Add to the mix a couple of lost fumbles in this game. At least one of them should be returned back for a DAL td. Any kind of OFF kinks should be hammered out in this game. DAL should blow INDY out like they did MINN. DAL leads the NFL with 42 sacks. How many times will Ryan be sacked and how many times will he fumble? DAL #7 TOT DEF w/ #24 RUSH OFFF & #1 PASS DEF. DAL cannot let INDY get going with their RUSH OFF otherwise Ryan will be able to pick them apart. It has to be like when they played MINN. Also, keep the DAL RB 1-2 punch going, putting the INDY DEF on its toes.
THE PICK: DAL-9 ½
Monday December 5th, 2022 8:20pm
NO Saints (4-8), (3-9) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (0-5) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (5-6), (3-7-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (1-4-1) ATS NO+5 ½
LW, I liked NO+9 ½ @SF. All NO had to do was score 1td because in the past NO has played well vs SF. It didn’t even matter who were the QBs, the matchup was there. Plus with the +9 ½ it looked like too many points. I did not think NO was winning this game but, they did hold SF to 1td. That td was from a tipped pass off of NO S Tyrann Mathieu that barely made it to SF WR Jauan Jennings in the back of the endzone. Usually, Mathieu would have had it but he tipped it right to Jennings. I give NO a lot of credit because if you just looked at the stats for both teams for this game, you would think that it was a very tight score but the 2 lost fumbles by RB Alvin Kamara were killers. One was at the SF goal line that SF recovered. Had he scored, the final score would have been different. SF was winning but not by 10pts. Oh and by the way, the final score was SF 13-0. One td and 2fgs for SF. NO is going into their bye for some needed rest. NO 10-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. LW, TB takes a 17-10 lead into the 4th qtr @CLEV. With TB QB Tom Brady, you think you’re looking good with TB-3 or even if you just like TB. You think TB will add another td and the score will be out of reach for CLEV and TB will walk away with a nice win on the road. Well after TB scored their td to makes the score 17-10, TB punted 6x the rest of the way and in OT. They had one drive that went no where at the end of the 4th qtr and ran out of time. Anyone who is reading this could have done a better job. TBE rested on their laurels and Brady let someone else call suspect plays. Meanwhile, CLEV couldn’t do anything either finally found life with a very late drive where all of a sudden the TB DEF was no where to be found. Then on a 4th & 10 from the TB 12yd line, CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett threw a pass to the back of the endzone that TE David Njoku caught with one hand. One stop, the game is over. Not here. Then in OT, CLEVE drove down the field and scored another td. TB deserved to lose, period. They are not buying the HC Todd Bowles program. This is basically the same team that HC Bruce Arians had last season and now TB stinks. TB lost 23-17 in OT. L15 TB(H) vs NO, TB 5-10 SU & 6-9 ATS. L19 TB vs NO, HOME 10-9 ATS. L11 TB vs NO, NO 8-3 ATS. NO 12-6 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NO 37-29-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 29-34 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. NO 27-26-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 10-13 ATS on MNF. NO 1-8 ATS L9 on MNF. NO 20-11 ATS L31 as a ROAD DOG. NO 13-1 ATS as a DIV DOG 3>pts. NO 13-4 ATS AWAY off SUATS loss. NO 0-3 ATS AWAY in 2022 off SUATS loss. NO 1-4 ATS AWAY on MNF. TB 29-33-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 34-34-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 28-30-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 2-5 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. TB 3-4 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. TB 7-9-1 ATS off an SU FAV loss. TB 0-3 ATS in 2022 off an SU FAV loss. TB 8-1 ATS vs <.400 div opp. Both of these teams are coming off losses. TB should have definitely won their game but, in the 4th qtr and OT @CLEVE, Brady looked horrible. He looked like a statue and not the same guy who led the last minute drive vs LAR in wk 9. If he decides he wants to stay on with TB past this season, I would not offer him a contract. The minute he retires, TB will already be in the hole. TB should prepare for this so they are not losing for a number of years. As I said before NO looks good on paper but doesn’t always show up. They should have at least covered LW and they made multiple serious mistakes deep in the redzone @SF. NO wasn’t winning the game but the usually reliable RB Alvin Kamara lost two crucial fumbles that could have at least kept NO within one score. TB beat NO @NO in wk 2, 20-10 so there may be some revenge and some payback working on the minds of the NO team. Plus, if TB has any notions of a playoff spot because of the weak NFC SOUTH, NO could set TB back further from those aspirations. I don’t see this game being a blowout by any means and this game could go down to the wire with either team kicking a fg for the win. NO is frustrated by this season and TB is not showing anyone they belong in the playoffs. By the way, NO should be able to run all day on TB just CLEV did. I like NO and the points here as TB tries for a sweep of the series but can’t get it done.
THE PICK: NO+5 ½