2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYES: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, GB Packers, Indianapolis Colts, NO Saints & Washington Commanders

Thursday December 8^th, 2022 8:15pm

LV Raiders (5-7), (6-6) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ LA Rams (3-9), (3-8-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS                                        LAR+6½  

LW, LV RB Josh Jacobs ran all over LAC for 144yds. LAC DEF is completely overrated and they couldn’t make any stops vs LV. When Jacobs wasn’t running, LV Derek Carr was picking the LAC secondary apart. He did however, have a PICK6. It was deflected and LAC took it back for an early LAC 7-0 lead. But after that, this game was all LV. LV won 27-20. Throw in some suspect play calling which is usually the norm for LAC and you have a win for the other team. LW, LAR who have the #30 RUSH OFF in the NFL rushed for 171yds & 2tds vs SEA. They could have beaten SEA but SEA was determined to bounceback after giving it away vs LV in OT. LAR had their chances but SEA came up with a td in the end to win. I thought SEA would win by a td. Instead they won by 4pts. L4 LV vs LAR, LAR 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. LAR 6-9 ATS on TNF. LAR 6-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. LAR 2-7 ATS on TNF off an SU loss. LAR 9-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LAR 27-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 26-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 7-5 ATS after SEA. LAR 0-9-1 ATS as a DOG 1>pt vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 8-14 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 6-10-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. LV 2-11-2 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. LV 0-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. LV 23-44-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 19-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LV 2-16 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. LV 9-5 ATS after LAC. LV 0-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. LV 1-4 ATS vs non-div opp on TNF. LV 2-15-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 0-11 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LAR QB John Wolford is making the most of an opportunity. Even though he threw 2INTS in this game, he does have some kind of zip on the ball. He has to cut down his INTS and take what the DEF gives him. The DEF for LAR will make some plays in this game. Unfortunately there will be LV fans in the crowd as they do travel well. However, a good DEF is what LV Carr is afraid of. LAR #4 RUSH DEF. LAR DEF has to play like the DEF NO used in wk 8. NO shut down Carr completely and didn’t let him get comfortable. NO also didn’t let Josh Jacobs run wild (43yds) either and NO won 24-0. The LAR DEF has to be relentless and they can be. Someone has to stop WR Davante Adams. He has been relentless since wk 8. The only week he did not have more than 125yds receiving was vs SEA. He had 74yds receiving but LV still won. LV is probably looking at this game and taking LAR for granted. LV 0-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. LAR is on a six game losing streak and are desperate for a win. Look for the upset here.   

THE PICK: LAR+6 ½

Sunday December 11^th, 2022 1:00pm

NY Jets (7-5), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-3), (5-6-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS                                                  NYJ+9 ½  

LW, NYJ should have won the game. Braxton Berrios holds on to the ball, NYJ win either 29-27 or 30-27 @MINN. Instead he drops a pass that was easy and no one around him, NYJ lose 27-22. I liked NYJ +3 and they should have won outright. NYJ Mike White played another good game and the NYJ rushed for 120yds. But NYJ did dig themselves a hole when trailing in this game, 20-6. So, it was comeback city for NYJ and they played better in the 2^nd half but still have redzone woes as they kicked 5fgs in this game. NYJ needs to punch it in when they get the opportunity. On TNF, NE started out with a 7-3 lead and then BUFF took over. They closed down the lanes and everything else for NE and countered with a balanced attack that brought out 132yds rushing, 1td on 37 carries. While BUFF QB Josh Allen threw 22/33, 223yds, 2tds & 1lost fumble. This game was BUFF 17-7 at the half and they were in control. BUFF used ball control in the 2^nd half to stop NE from getting extra possessions and limited them to 3pts on 3possessions. The final score was BUFF 24-10. L15 BUFF(H) vs NYJ, BUFF 8-7 SU & 8-7 ATS. L26 BUFF vs NYJ, 13-13 SU & 13-13 ATS. L26 BUFF vs NYJ, FAV 13-12 ATS 1PICK. L11 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS. BUFF 7-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. BUFF 26-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 38-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 19-13 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 8-2-1 ATS before MIA. NYJ 8-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYJ 38-31-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 46-39-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 29-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. NYJ 4-16-1 as a ROAD DOG 5-17-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS win. These two teams met in wk 9 @the NYJ and the NYJ won 20-17. BUFF took the lead in this game but NYJ put the clamps down, came back and beat BUFF. They forced BUFF QB Josh Allen into mistakes and the DEF for NYJ was there. There are two big factors going into this game. For the NYJ, they are coming off a game they should have won, period. So there is the bouneback. For BUFF it is a revenge game. They were embarrassed @NYJ earlier in the season and now they want to make amends. They also have to keep on winning ahead of MIA & KC for a shot at the #1 seed. BUFF #2 TOT OFF vs NYJ #4 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #6 PASS DEF. HC Robert Saleh is a defensive specialist and he made his bones in SF as the DC. If there ever was a game NYJ needed to shut a team down, it was this game. I think BUFF wins this game but not by more than a td if, they even win the game at all. For NYJ, they have to control Allen. If they do that, they will shut down BUFF. Also, they need not worry about LB Von Miller, he is out for a few weeks. NYJ QB White needs to stay calm and take what the DEF gives him. He beat BUFF last season, so he’s been there before. No turnovers for NYJ is the requisite. If they get turnoveritous, BUFF will win big. I like NYJ with points here. This should be a good game and a tight game. Plus, the possibility that NYJ get the upset.    

THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½

Cleveland Browns (5-7), (8-4) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4), (9-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS                     CLEV+6

LW, CLEVE was @HOU and beat them 27-14, a BIG so what! CLEV didn’t even score a td on OFF. They were handed a punt return, a fumble and an INT that were all tds courtesy of HOU. CLEV managed 2fgs on OFF and that was it. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was rusty and heard all the boos. He will probably hear boos again this week. The run game helped Watson out as CLEV rushed for a combined 174yds on 38carries. LW, I loved me some CINNCY QB Joe Burrow vs KC. If you are reading this, I said so on the Rick Kamla show on the Bettor Sports Network, on Friday night at 8:30pm. I should have had it as my BEST BET of the week. It was a nice balanced attack vs KC and CINNCY won 27-24. It helped a lot that the CINNCY RUN game had 152yds rushing and 1td. Burrow was near perfect going 25/31, 286yds, 2tds, 0turnnovers. He spread the ball to 8different receivers and had the KC DEF on its toes. The CINNCY DEF even forced a fumble from KC TE Travis Kelce who almost never fumbles. CINNCY was down 24-17 in this game but CINNCY came back with the forced fumble and KC also had a missed fg. That gave the ball back to CINNCY one last time for the win. L15 CINNCY(H) vs CLEV, CINNCY 10-5 SU & 7-6-2 ATS. L31 CLEV vs CINNCY, DOG 18-9-4 ATS. L22 CINNCY vs CLEVE, CINNCY 11-7-4 ATS. L18 CLEV vs CINNCY, CINNCY 11-4-3 ATS. CINNCY 10-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 48-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 26-24-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 26-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 5-7-1 ATS L13 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 1-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 1-5 ATS vs div opp off DD SU win. CLEV 8-17-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CLEV 12-25-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEV 27-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 2-9 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEV 6-17 ATS off DD SU win. CLEV 1-10-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-12-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 4-16 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEV 0-8 ATS off DD SU win vs >.333 opp. CLEV off BB SU wins vs opp off SU DOG win. These two teams met in wk 8 on MNF and CLEV shocked the world and beat CINNCY 32-13. CINNCY was a ROAD FAV-3 in that game and the game didn’t start out well for CINNNCY and QB Joe Burrow had a bad game. Burrow doesn’t forget and he will remind everyone this week. The guy is as cool as a cucumber and I expect CINNCY to destroy CLEV here. This is a payback game and the CINNCY DEF will also get to Watson as well. CINNCY #15 RUSH DEF. It will be all on Watson’s shoulders and CINNCY will be waiting. This game has blowout written all over it. Burrow is Brady 2.0 in his demeanor and how he goes about the game. He isn’t fazed by things and knows that there will be a next time. He was cool last week vs KC and will deliver this week. These two teams know each other well and it will be a dog fight at the beginning of the game but then CINNCY will go on a scoring spree. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: CINNCY-6  

Houston Texans (1-10-1), (5-7) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS                          HOU+17

LW, on SNF, DAL was up 21-19 going into the 4^th qtr and I was tired and went to sleep. I figured two things. First, INDY would keep it close and that DAL would not cover the spread. Second, INDY would find a way to win and upset DAL. When I woke up in the morning and saw in the paper that the final score was DAL 54, INDY 19, I thought it was a misprint. Yes, I read the newspaper. I then went on line and saw that DAL had scored 33pts in the 4^th qtr. Not only did they cover the spread but they scored on four straight turnovers that INDY committed in the 4^th qtr. It was an explosion of points for DAL and the end of the season for INDY. DAL did what teams in any sport are supposed to do, bury their opponent and make sure there is no room for hope by the other team. LW, I liked HOU+7 @HOME vs CLEV. I knew CLEV QB Deshaun Watson would be rusty(he was) & HOU could run on a weak CLEV DEF. HOU looked good from the outset but being HOU, they can’t finish anything they start. The OFF for HOU might as well have been wearing the CLEV jerseys because HOU gave up a punt for a td, a fumble for a td and an INT for a td. HOU QB Kyle Allen is worse than Davis Mills and HOU could use a QB like Joe Burrow. But then again, any team could. Allen gave up the fumble & INT and those were the differences in the game as CLEV won 27-14. Take away the 3 miscues by HOU and the HOU DEF actually held the CLEVE OFF to 6pts. HOU turnovers turned into 17pts for CLEV. You cannot win when you consistently turn the ball over. That is also attributed to bad coaching as a team that makes many mistakes time and time again is not learning the fundamentals. L4 DAL vs HOU, DAL 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. HOU 18-28-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 27-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 31-44-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 30-35-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 9-0 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SU win vs .333<opp. DAL 10-1 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL 1-8 ATS after non-conf HOME GM vs opp off SUATS loss. In a lot of games HOU beats themselves with turnovers and sloppy play. So far there is no difference between HOU QBs Kyle Allen & Davis Mills. Neither one of them is getting the job done and they are both turning the ball over too many times. They take HOU out of the game so early that there is no remote chance that they can win much less be competitive in games. DAL is a good team but they are inconsistent with the way they go about the game. You never know how the team will play. DAL #11 TOT OFF vs HOU #28 TOT DEF. HOU #32 TOT OFF vs DAL #5 TOT DEF. This has blowout written all over it and expect HOU to make some mistakes that add to the DAL point total. The theory is if a DOG gets more than +7 than take the DOG but HOU is really bad and is probably just playing out the season and trying not to get hurt. They are almost a sure lock at the #1 PICK in 2023 draft, so why blow it? HOU played well vs the spread in their first five games going 4-1 ATS. But in their last seven games since their bye they are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS. Their only win was when they were +14 @HOME vs PHILLY and lost 29-17. DAL should be able to rush for over 200yds in this game. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: DAL-17

Minnesota Vikings (10-2), (7-4-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (5-7), (8-4) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (5-2) ATS                         MINN+2 ½  

LW, MINN was @HOME vs NYJ. MINN was an easy dropped pass from losing to the NYJ. After the game MINN is dancing around like they just won the SuperBowl. MINN escaped with their asses. MINN was up 20-6 at the half. But NYJ made adjustments at halftime while MINN did not, it was obvious. NYJ mounted a comeback and the NYJ DEF only gave up 7pts to MINN in the 2^nd half. I liked NYJ+3 ½ and they should have won but MINN held on, 27-22. LW, DET scored on every possession that they had @HOME vs JAGS. DET had eight possessions and they scored either a td or kicked a fg in all of them for a 40-14 slamming of the JAGS. It was 23-6 at the half and you could turn your sets off then. The DET OFF has been stellar this season but the DET DEF has sometimes been missing in action. DET played tough vs BUFF a couple of weeks ago but when the season was looking bleak for DET. But this week they were firing on all engines. It was a nice win. L15 DET(H) vs MINN, DET 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS. L31 DTE vs MINN, MINN 15-13-3 ATS. L31 MINN vs DET, DOG 25-13-3 ATS. L31 MINN vs DET, HOME 14-14-3 ATS. L17 MINN vs DET, ROAD 9-7-1 ATS. MINN 32-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 34-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MINN 25-29-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 25-20-2 ATS L47 in DEC. MINN 14-4 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 21-13 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. DET 19-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 33-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 31-25-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 8-2 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 6-0 as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs >.400opp. DET 5-14 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 2-12 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .333>opp. DET 7-0 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs >.400opp. DET 0-9 ATS as a FAV off DD SU win vs >.400opp. In wk 3 @MINN, these two teams met. DET was up 24-14 but couldn’t hold onto the lead and MINN won 28-24. DET made mistakes down the stretch and also turned the ball over at a crucial time where MINN capitalized. I’m sure DET HC Dan Campbell will remind the team about that game and what happened. The matchup I like is DET #7 TOT OFF vs MINN #31 TOT DEF. But on the other hand, the DET DEF has to step up in this game because MINN has a lot of weapons that MINN QB Kurt Cousins can choose from and if he is given time, he will beat you. On the other hand MINN #19 TOT OFF vs DET #32 TOT DEF. This game has the makings of a shootout because DET will stop at nothing to score points in this game. I am not sold on MINN going to the SuperBowl or even deep into the playoffs. Their schedule has been pretty easy and going forward it is not that tough. I feel strongly that DET wins by a fg in a shootout.

THE PICK: DET-2 ½  

Jacksonville Jags (4-8), (4-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS                         JAGS+3 ½  

LW, TENN was blown out @PHILLY, 35-10. It was 707 in the 1^st qtr but that’s as close as it got. PHILLY was up 21-10 and you could go home. The final was PHILLY 35-10. TENN gave up over 450total yds of OFF to PHILLY and they probably could have scored more. The oly good thing to come out of the game for TENN is that they were able to spread the ball around to nine different receivers. Going forward, this may help them when they are looking for receivers. PHILLY also sacked TENN QB Ryan Tannehill 6x. LW, JAGS were @DET and the JAGS DEF couldn’t stop the DET Offensive machine. DET scored a td or fg on every possession they had and the score ended, DET 40-14. After beating BALT the week before, you would think that JAGS were up for another challenge. I liked DET in this game because DET has an OFF that is tough to stop. JAGS couldn’t and didn’t stop them 1x. JAGS need to look at everybody on the team in the off season. No consistency here. L15 TENN(H) vs JAGS, TENN 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS. L26 TENN vs JAGS 13-13 ATS. L30 TENN vs JAGS, FAV 16-14 ATS. L13 TENN vs JAGS , TENN 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS. JAGS 8-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. JAGS 27-22 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. JAGS 33-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 25-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 5-2 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. TENN 38-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 35-40 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 31-31 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 8-0 ATS off BB Su losses vs .333>opp. TENN 10-2 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts vs .600>opp. Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses. The fact that JAGS were blown out wasn’t a complete surprise because the DET OFF is explosive and the JAGS DEF couldn’t keep up. But the TENN blowout was a shocker because they usually play tight DEF and teams have not scored that many points on them since wk 2 when BUFF beat TENN 41-7. TENN is on a 2game losing streak and they need to get back on the horse very quickly. Look for TENN RB Derrick Henry to explode in this game because he hasn’t had a 100yd game since wk9 @KC. JAGS #13 RUSH DEF but they gave up exactly 100yds rushing & 2tds to DET while giving up 340yds in the air &2tds. Look for TENN to look really good in this game and JAGS to look really bad. TENN needs a good game to get back into it and show that they can go deep in the playoffs. The TENN DEF also needs a shutdown game. Look for them to make some plays in this game as well. TENN’s five losses are all against teams winning teams and teams that are right now poised for the playoffs. All their wins are against teams going nowhere. TENN is desperate for a win here. Lay the points.   

THE PICK: TENN-3 ½

Philadelphia Eagles (11-1), (6-5-1) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ NY Giants (7-4-1), (9-3) ATS, (4-2-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS                      NYG+7

LW, NYG & WASH @NYG played to a 20-20 tie. What sticks out in this game is that both teams had good days on the ground. WASH rushed for 165yds on 36 carries, while NYG rushed for 134yds on 30 carries & 1td. This was a seesaw game that had a 13-13 tie at halftime. NYG took a 20-13 lead in the 3^rd qtr and WASH scored a td in the 4^th qtr to tie it at 20-20. Neither team scored in OT and there you had it. LW, PHILLY was @HOME vs TENN. Let’s put it this way, it didn’t go well for TENN. TENN was the DOG+6 and I actually thought they would keep it close after losing to CINNCY, the bounceback. There was no bounceback and it snapped. This game was 7-7 in the 1^st qtr and then PHILLY 21-10 at the half and TENN was done. TENN punted 4x in the 2^nd half and 1x turned the ball over on downs. PHILLY scored two more tds and the final was 35-10. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts put on an air show going 29/39, 380yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. PHILLY WR AJ Brown caught 8passes for 119yds & 2tds. PHILLY WR DeVonta Smith caught 5passes for 102yds and 1td. Hurts spread the ball out to nine different receivers. The TENN secondary was torched. L15  NYG(H) vs PHILLY, NYG 5-10 SU & 6-9 ATS. L30 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 19-10-1 ATS. L30 PHILLY vs NYG, ROAD 17-12-1 ATS. PHILLY 11-19 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. PHILLY 5-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 0-7 ATS as a FAV 3>pts in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 41-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 39-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 27-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV off DD ATS win. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3>pts off DD ATS win. NYG 15-21 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NYG 45-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 33-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 36-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 10-5 ATS after WASH.  PHILLY is on a roll and sometimes what they do on the ground is more than what a team does combined on the ground and in the air. NYG are a beat up team with not too many targets to throw to. PHILLY will be ready but will the NYG DEF be ready? PHILLY #3 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #13 PASS OFF vs NYG #23 TOT DEF w/#26 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. Obviously, this does not favor NYG. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts has weapons that they haven’t even used and they will probably go full force in this game. Who in the NYG secondary will stop PHILLY? If Hurts spreads out the OFF like he did vs TENN, this game will be over very early. Don’t be surprised by a PHILLY blowout this weekend. NYG will try to use their run game but again PHILLY will be waiting. Look for NYG QB Daniel Jones to get caught up in some turnovers which add to the scoring for PHILLY. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: PHILLY-7

Baltimore Ravens (8-4), (4-7-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7), (6-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS                    BALT+2 ½  

LW, I liked DEN+8 @BALT. Why, because when BALT wins, they win ugly. The win vs DEN was very ugly. Not only did BALT QB Lamar Jackson hurt his knee and was knocked out of the game, all DEN had to to do was make a stop and the last drive by BALT and it was over. BALT QB Tyler Hundley who came in for Jackson orchestrated the drive and the 2yd rushing td with :28 left in the game to take the lead 10-9. Yeah, it was that exciting. DEN was leading for most of this game but couldn’t stop BALT on the last drive. BALT couldn’t create any turnovers but did hold DEN to 3fgs. BALT threw 2INTS that did turn into 3pts for DEN. But BALT played a sloppy game. LW, PITT was +1 ½ @ATL. This is a game that could have gone either way. Neither team is going anywhere and each team gave up over 125yds on the ground. PITT was up 16-6 at the half but let ATL get close before getting and INT to end the game. PITT held on to a 19-16 win. Both teams went run heavy and neither team had any turnovers until the ATL INT in the last minute of the game. L15 PITT(H) vs BALT, PITT 9-6 SU but 6-7-2 ATS. L30 PITT vs BALT, PITT 14-13-2 ATS 1NL. L22 PITT vs BALT, 10-10-1 ATS 1NL. L30 PITT vs BALT, DOG 18-8-2 ATS 1PICK & 1NL. L28 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 17-9-2 ATS. BALT 7-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. BALT 28-26-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. BALT 32-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 32-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BALT 10-3 ATS as a DIV DOG. BALT 9-3 ATS before CLEV. BALT 9-15 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 5-11-2 ATS L18 after allowing <10pts. PITT 44-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 49-38-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 29-26-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 14-16-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. These two teams know each other very well and when they get together it is a big battle. I have said this all season, the secondary for BALT is terrible and can be exploited. How DEN didn’t take advantage last week is unbelievable but, they have their own problems. This is only the 2^nd game of the season that BALT is a DOG and it’s because Jackson is out, otherwise they certainly would have been the FAV. But, Pickett is getting better every week and no matter what the records, this is a battle. With Hundley in there @QB for BALT, he may make some mistakes but he is certainly capable of leading the OFF. But, all of a sudden the OFF for PITT is coming together. However, BALT is actually playing for a high playoff seed while PITT is just playing. Plus, if BALT gets their running game going, watch out. BALT getting points in a game that usually is very close to begin with. BALT will find a way to win to keep pace. BALT #2 RUSH DEF. BALT needs to stop the run.   

THE PICK: BALT+2 ½  

Sunday December 11^th, 2022 4:00pm

TB Buccaneers (6-6), (3-8-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (5-1), (4-2) ATS                                                     TB+3

LW, NO played not to win & not to lose. TB was down 16-3 very late in the game and I said to myself that I should stick around and watch this. Sure enough the combination of suspect play calling by NO, no DEF and TB QB Tom Brady doing his thing, TB won 17-16 with :03 left in the game. In the last two drives by TB, they ran 21 plays and went 154 yds for 2tds. The first drive was 91yds & the 2^nd drive was 63yds. NO didn’t make a stop. They deserve to lose. TB actually rushed for 76yds in this game but Brady threw 54x. On the last 2drives, Brady went 14/19. He had thrown 35 passes before these two drives but NO didn’t do anything on these last two. LW, I was wrong. The SF DEF is for real after swarming all over on a good team, MIA. The DEF for SF had 3INTS & a sack fumble for a td. Plus, they beat MIA 33-17 with a 3^rd string QB after SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a broken foot. QB Brock Purdy took over and went 25/37, 201yds, 2tds & 1INT. He spread the ball around to 7different receivers and the MIA DEF couldn’t and didn’t make stops when they needed them. The SF DEF also shut down the MIA run game to 33yds and forced MIA to throw more than it wanted to. RB Christian McCaffrey was a big part of the OFF, rushing 17x for 66yds and catching 8 passes for 80yds & 1td. L9 SF vs TB, SF 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS. TB 27-37-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 33-40-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 26-26-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 8-9 ATS after NO. SF 33-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 34-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 7-9 ATS L16 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 7-0 ATS after non-conf HOME gm. SF did not miss a beat a beat with QB Brock Purdy. He came in like a seasoned pro. He led the troops successfully and the players around him produced. That gave the SF DEF an added spunk knowing that the OFF was doing its job. TB & Tom Brady barely beat a NO team that played tough for 57 minutes then went missing and lost the game. Brady needed to pull out all of the tricks against a NO team that was playing not to lose. SF is a team that will be ready because they are loaded on both sides of the ball. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF vs TB #17 TOT OFF w/#32 RUSH OFF & #5 PASS OFF. The reason why TB has such a highly rated PASS OFF is because they can’t run the ball. SF will be waiting. There will definitely be a roughing the passer penalty vs SF in this game because Brady always gets one of those calls his way. If Brady has to throw 54x in this game like he did vs NO, TB will probably be losing by a lot. Out the door goes the run game. No comeback for TB or let down by SF. SF should stuff the run early. SF SHOULD win this game by 2tds. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: SF-3

Carolina Panthers (4-8), (6-6) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5), (6-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS                        CAR+3 ½

LW, SEA barely beat LAR @LAR. They had to come back vs the 2^nd string LAR QB, John Wolford. SEA let LAR Rush for 171yds on 33carries. This is a team that is almost last in the NFL in RUSHING. SEA was down 23-20 and put a drive together late to win the game, 27-23. I liked SEA-5 but SEA didn’t come through. SEA QB Geno Smith had a nice game going 28/39, 367yds, 3tds. But his 1INT & 1 lost fumble resulted in 3pts for LAR. CAR is coming off a bye. CAR 5-9 ATS since 2007 the wk after their bye. But before their bye, CAR closed the door on DEN 23-10. The td that DEN scored was a dummy td at the end but the CAR DEF looked good even though they were playing a terrible Offensive team like DEN. RBs D’Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard combined for 178yds on 41 carries. CAR QB Sam Darnold went 11/19, 164yds, 1td & didn’t turn the ball over. Sam needs to stay focused. L10 SEA vs CAR, SEA 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS. CAR 31-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 37-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 3-8 ATS w/rest vs .00>opp. CAR 4-7 ATS w/rest (Thurs, bye). SEA 11-7 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SEA 37-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 46-25 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 3-8 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500<opp. SEA 4-9 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 4-11 ATS before SF. SEA 6-11 ATS L17 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA can’t stop the run and CAR likes to run and does it well. CAR #17 RUSH OFF vs SEA #31 RUSH DEF. CAR’s RUSH OFF would be better but they weren’t using their current RBs effectively earlier in the season. But in their L6 games, CAR is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS. This is a winnable game for CAR if they don’t turn the ball over. SEA is not looking like a playoff team and they are getting more banged up as the season gets closer to the end. SEA RBs Kenneth Walker, DeeJay Dallas & Tony Jones are all banged up and all may or may not play this week due to injuries sustained vs LAR. That doesn’t sit well for QB Smith who can’t have the whole game rest on his shoulders. As for CAR, they have nothing to lose as no one is predicting them to go anywhere but, all of a sudden in the NFC SOUTH, it’s still wide open.  This will be a close game and will probably come down to a fg. The RBs for CAR are well rested and should be able to run wild vs SEA. This game could go either way but CAR needs to be a heavy on their run to win this game. Take the points here.

THE PICK: CAR+3 ½    

KC Chiefs (9-3), (5-7) ATS (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-9), (4-8) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS                                      DEN+9

LW, KC was @CINNCY. Sorry but I liked CINNCY as the HOME DOG+2 ½ . CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has something over KC. KC TE Travis Kelce had a fumble that was ripped out of him. It was a rare occasion and that’s one of the reasons why I am predicting blowout next week for KC @DEN. KC will regroup and adjust and come back stronger. It was good game @CINNCY last week but CINNCY prevailed 27-24. CINNCY was just the better team. KC was up 24-17 going into the 4^th qtr but CINNCY held tight and scored 10pts while KC missed what would have been a tying fg. KC did make the most of their possessions except the last two with the fumble and the missed fg. But it happens. LW, the DEN OFF managed 3fgs @BALT. But DEN was leading 9-3 and had knocked BALT QB Lamar Jackson out of the game. What could happen? Well, BALT QB Tyler Huntley came in and led a drive at the end of the game and scored a td with :28 left in the game to tie the game at 9-9. Then, the extra point which won the game 10-9. Huntley led a 16play drive that went 91yds for the winning td. I liked DEN+8 because I knew that even if BALT would win the game, it would be close because BALT is a team that wins ugly. This was certainly one of those games. DEN actually got the ball back and drove down the field but narrowly missed a 63yd fg that would have won the game for DEN. DEN #27 TOT OFF and that has been their problem all season. They can’t put points on the board when they need them. I just can’t believe that there are other teams worse than DEN on OFF. But when you look at the list, you can guess who are worse. L15DEN(H) vs KC, DEN 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS. L26 DEN vs KC, 13-13 ATS. L27 DEN vs KC, ROAD 16-11 ATS. L30 DEN vs KC, DOG 18-12 ATS. DEN 11-6-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. DEN 1-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. DEN 26-36-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 23-29-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 27-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 3-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. KC 12-5-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. KC 43-34-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 34-34-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 41-27 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 3-12 ATS off SU FAV loss vs opp w/revenge. This is a rivalry that has been one-sided. L13 DEN vs KC, KC 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS. I think KC keeps their dominance over DEN going unless they completely fall apart. KC is coming off a loss and it’s a bounceback situation to keep pace in the AFC. KC scored 40+ points 3x in 2022. They were all on the RAOD and were all games won by more than 10pts. They were won by 23, 10 & 21pts. Nothing has gone right for DEN. What seemed like a promising season from the outset has become a complete disaster and certainly will not be corrected this season. Wait for the off season for the axes to start falling. Look for DEN HC Nathaniel Hackett and the rest of the coaching staff except the DC to get fired. The DEF is the only thing in DEN that seems to work. The DEN DEF is the only thing keeping DEN in games. DEN hasn’t been blown out of any game this season but they haven’t played any team that is known for blowouts. This is a game where it will happen. KC #1 TOT OFF vs DEN #3 TOT DEF. IF KC won last week, I would look to see that DEN may keep it tight but after a loss for KC, there are the adjustments and the game planning. This has blowout written all over it as KC bounceback and DEN is just in the way. Lay the points here as KC SHOULD roll.

THE PICK: KC-9

Sunday December 11^th, 2022 8:20pm

Miami Dolphins (8-4) (6-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ LA Chargers (6-6), (5-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS                                   LAC+3

LW, LAC played not to win & not to lose. HC Brandon Staley thinks he is being smart going for it almost every time he gets a 4^th down. Well, he takes points off the board when he doesn’t convert with a play that looks suspect. He changes the game for LAC when he doesn’t take the 3pts. On top of the fact that his whole game plan is suspect from the get go. The DEF for LAC is completely overrated and can’t stop anyone with an average OFF. LAC #26 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF & #19 PASS DEF. Hence LAC was up 10-0 @LV but ended up losing 27-20. LAC gave up 154yds rushing. Plus, no one could stop LV Davante Adams who had 8 catches for 177yds &2tds. Now they face a pissed off MIA team, good luck. LAC 2-6 ATS as a FAV in 2022. Always bet against them if they are laying points. LW, MIA was @SF. But 2INTS and a sack fumble returned for a td doomed MIA. The 2ints and sack fumble turned into 13pts for SF. I liked MIA+3 ½ because I felt that MIA had a chance and because the SF DEF really hadn’t played anyone good. Well, the SF DEF showed up and the run game for MIA was stopped cold. MIA rushed for 33yds while giving up 121yd rushing. MIA played catchup and it didn’t help that MIA QBS had 4turnovers. The MIA DEF had no answer for SF QB Brock Purdy who came in for QB Jimmy G after he left with a foot injury. Purdy spread the ball around to 7different receivers like the MIA DEF wasn’t even there. L11 MIA vs LAC, MIA 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. MIA 6-5-1 ATS off a loss & playing on SNF. MIA 9-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. MIA 2-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV on SNF. MIA 6-7 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 8-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. MIA 26-53 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 25-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 21-25 ATS L46 in DEC. LAC 7-9 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. LAC12-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 13-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 5-7-1 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. LAC 7-14 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAC 31-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 31-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. This is a pissed of MIA team that is competing against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC EAST. They know that they missed a golden opportunity prove to everyone that they are for real. LAC is not for real and will falter like they always do. They may be coming off a loss too but the DEF for LAC disappears at times when they are needed most. MIA should be able to get their RUSH OFF going against a team that doesn’t stop it at all. MIA should win this game handsomely. MIA needs to win this game. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: MIA-3

Monday December 12^th, 2022 8:15pm

NE Patriots (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-8), (6-6) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (3-4) ATS                                   ARZ+1

NE is showing that they are still a little bit away from getting back to the promised land in the NFL. They showed their deficiencies on TNF @HOME vs BUFF. I knew BUFF would win, I just felt that NE would keep it a little closer. The game started out well for NE being up 7-3 but it went all down hill from there. The DEF for NE gave up a lot of yds on the ground and it didn’t come from BUFF QB Josh Allen. The problem for NE is that their DEF is susceptible and they are out of position. Before their bye, ARZ let a game slip away. They were sloppy in a game @HOME vs LAC. ARZ had a fumble, INT and a missed fg that helped LAC stay in the game and beat them with a td with :15 left in the game. ARZ lost 25-24 when LAC converted their 2pt conversion after the td. ARZ had a nice run game, rushing for 181yds and 1td. Look for more of that this week vs NE. ARZ QB Kyler Murray did spread the ball around to eight different receivers which shows that he is trying to stretch the OFF. He needs to do that again this week. L5 ARZ vs NE, NE 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. NE 11-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NE 35-34-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 49-43-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 5-4 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. NE 21-14 ATS as a ROAD FAV after an SU loss. ARZ 12-14-1 ATS L27 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 40-34 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 47-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 14-5 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 17-6 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 12-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >3pts. ARZ is coming off a bye. ARZ  is 6-7-2 ATS since 2007 after their bye. There is a trend that ARZ is currently in. Since wk 4, they have gone one win, two losses. Then one win, two losses. Then again, one win, two losses. After the two losses, they seem to find themselves. This will be the game. NE has been in a funk. NE has lost their L2 and they are looking for a win as well. But, their chances of getting to the AFC playoffs gets slimmer every week, especially in the AFC EAST. This will be a battle and probably will come down to a fg. But being the HOME TEAM here has an advantage. The DEF for NE is susceptible and the OFF at times is not getting it done. The same thing goes for ARZ but ARZ QB Kyler Murray has receivers to throw to. NE QB Mac Jones does not. That is the difference here. The OFF for NE is stymied and if the crowd gets into it in ARZ, NE will have problems. ARZ needs to get their run game going so that Murray can drop passes all over. ARZ RB James Connor had a nice game vs LAC. Look for him to have another one this week. I like ARZ here as the winner in an almost PICK’EM game.

THE PICK: ARZ+1