2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday December 15^th, 2022 8:15pm

SF 49ers (9-4), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6), (6-7) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                                SEA+3 ½  

LW, SF was @HOME-3 ½ vs TB. Everyone in the world loved TB because of Brady. I wasn’t swayed in my analysis that SF was the better team. SF showed t in so many ways. They were up 35-0 at the half and could have easily scored 60points. The final was 35-7 and Mr Irrelevant (SF QB Brock Purdy) played better than The GOAT (QB Tom Brady). It was an uphill battle for TB the whole game while they had a missed fg, 2INTS & 1 lost fumble that didn’t help either. Purdy spread the ball to eight different receivers and didn’t turn the ball over. He also was sacked either. He left in the 4^th qtr for backup QB Josh Johnson who finished out the game for SF. LW, SEA was a HOME FAV-3 ½  vs CAR but I felt strongly that with CAR’s run game, CAR would dominate this game. SEA had no answer for the run game that CAR brought and SEA lost 30-24. CAR rushed for 223yds & 2tds on 46 carries and SEA had no answer. CAR was up in this game 17-0 before SEA got on the board. SEA was in reach only trailing 20-14 at the half. SEA would get a fg to start the 2^nd half but that would be the closest SEA would get as CAR would score a td and a fg to make the score 30-17. The CAR DEF stopped SEA on 3straight possessions and SEA punted. SEA would score a dummy td at the end to make the final, CAR 30-24. But CAR dominated in this game. SEA was without RBs Dallas & Walker which hampered the SEA run game to 46yds. This put added pressure on SEA QB Geno Smith to deliver. Unfortunately, he threw 2INTS while being sacked 3x. L15 SEA(H) vs SF, SEA 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS. L19 SEA vs SF, SEA 13-6-1 ATS. L17 SEA vs SF, FAV 11-6 ATS. SF 3-9 ATS on TNF. SF 0-6 ATS on TNF off an SU win. SF 3-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. SF 28-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 22-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 1-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on TNF. SF 35-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 10-2 ATS on TNF. SEA 17-10 ATS @HOME on TNF. SEA 12-11 ATS vs NFC WEST on TNF. SEA 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. SEA 7-3 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. SEA 11-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. SEA 46-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 36-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 47-23 ATS as a DOG in DEC. This is the matchup that I like. SF #9 TOT OFF vs SEA #28 TOT DEF w/#31 RUSH DEF. SEA was playing well beyond anyone’s expectations earlier in the season when they were 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS. But since then, SEA is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS. The RUN DEF for SEA has gone down dramatically after looking good for most of the season. SF has taken it up a notch after Purdy has stepped in @QB. If SF goes RUN heavy in this game, SF will roll over SEA because SEA is terrible vs the run and can’t stop anyone. This would again take a lot of pressure off of Purdy who has shown in his two games that he is ready for the challenge. As for SEA, at this moment both RBs Walker & Dallas are questionable which leaves SEA at a big disadvantage and a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Geno Smith. The only setback for SF is that WR Deebo Samuel is out with a knee injury that he suffered in the game vs TB. SF is on a roll and needs to keep winning as well. They have a shot at the #2 seed which would give them a few HOME games throughout the playoffs. SF is a much better team right now then earlier in the season. These two teams met in wk 2 @SF with SF QB Trey Lance going down with injury and Jimmy G coming in. SF won that game 27-7 but there is no revenge here as SF has just gotten stronger while SEA did get better but has gotten worse in the latter part of the season. Lay the points here as SF should roll.  

THE PICK: SF-3 ½

Saturday December 17^th, 2022 1:00pm

Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1), (5-8) ATS, (2-4-1) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3), (7-5-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS       INDY+4  

INDY is done. INDY 11-3-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye week. Before their bye they were competitive with DAL @DAL. The score was 21-19 and believe it or not INDY was a DOG +9 ½ . I actually went to sleep and woke up the next day and saw that the final score was 54-19. I thought it was a misprint. Everything that could go wrong in a game did go wrong for INDY in that 4^th qtr @DAL. INDY QB Matt Ryan is done too. The great experiment with interim HC Jeff Saturday has been a failure. So far, he is 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS. INDY has nothing to play except a high draft pick. Now they face a MINN team that is coming off a loss and looking to bounce back. MINN is off the loss @DET. They trailed DET since the 2^nd qtr and couldn’t catch up. The MINN run game was held to 22yds. DET found a way to exploit the MINN DEF at every turn. DET even used a tackle eligible play to get a 1^st down, it worked. Also, the MINN DEF did not sack DET QB Jared Goff 1x. If MINN wants to go deep into the playoffs, they need to have their DEF step up. Oh, by the way, MINN lost @DET, 34-23. L5, INDY vs MINN, INDY 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS. INDY 37-38-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 33-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 4-14 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. MINN 8-5 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. MINN 34-32-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 32-40-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 16-5 ATS @HOME after an SU loss. MINN 2-5 ATS vs opp of bye week. MINN 7-3 ATS 1NL after DET. MINN hasn’t clinched anything yet and they have to establish a run game or otherwise QB Kirk Cousins will be a sitting duck. Without the run game LW, Cousins was sacked 3x. INDY is done and Ryan is probably done too. They should bring in Sam Ehlinger and at least see what they have. This would be a perfect spot because the MINN DEF is shaky at best and gives opposing QBs an easy day. MINN needs to keep pace in the NFC and they are looking to explode. This game has blowout written all over it. They will win this game big and again do some dances after like they just won the SuperBowl. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: MINN-4

Saturday December 17^th, 2022 4:30pm

Baltimore Ravens (9-4), (5-7-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (5-8), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (4-2) ATS                              BALT+3  

LW, BALT was a ROAD DOG+2 ½ @PITT. I liked BALT even without QB Lamar Jackson in this game. BALT has a lot to play for and is battling CINNCY. QB Tyler Huntley was in for BALT but he got knocked out of the game and Anthony Brown came in. Good thing BALT RB J.K. Dobbins was in mid season form because he rushed for 120yds & 1td on 15 carries. As a team BALT rushed for 215yds on 42 carries. The BALT DEF knocked out PITT QB Kenny Pickett and in came Mitch Trubisky. He threw 3INTS and 1td but couldn’t get PITT past the BALT DEF and the score was BALT 16-7. PITT scored a dummy td at the end to make the final score BALT 16-14. PITT had its chances but the BALT DEF held up and even partially blocked a fg which was the difference in the game. LW, CLEV+6 was @CINNCY. This was a revenge game for CINNCY after CLEV w/QB Jacoby Brissett destroyed CINNCY on MNF in wk 8, 32-13. CINNCY was ready and CLEV could only muster 1td and 1fg. CINNCY broke out with a 20-3 lead and CLEV was playing catchup the whole game. The CINNCY DEF held tight late in the game on two possessions that CLEV scored 0pts. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson looked better after his dismal performance a week earlier @HOU. CLEV couldn’t stop a CINNCY rush game that produced 136yds & 1td. The final score was CINNCY 23-10. L15 CLEV(H) vs BALT, CLEV 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS. L26 CLEV vs BALT, ROAD 17-9 ATS. L29 BALT vs CLEV, BALT 24-5 SU & 19-10 ATS. CLEV 10-10-3 ATS 1^st of BB HGs. CLEV 15-29-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 12-26-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEV 8-15-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 4-12-2 ATS L18 as a HOME FAV vs div. CLEV 2-10-2 ATS as a div HF 3>pts. CLEV 3-14-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 2-9 ATS off SU div loss vs >.500opp. CLEV 4-13-2 ATS off SU div loss. CLEV 1-10 ATS @HOME w/div revenge off SU loss. CLEV 3-16 ATS w/div revenge off SU loss. BALT 10-8 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. BALT 29-26-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. BALT 33-28-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 33-28-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BALT 11-3 ATS as a div DOG. BALT 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. Even without BALT QB Lamar Jackson, BALT should be able to run wild vs CLEV. There are RBs like JK Dobbins & Gus Edwards that will put the CLEV DEF on its back.  BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs CLEV #22 RUSH DEF. This is a lost season for CLEV and they want to see what they have for next season. But BALT is playing to win and CLEV QB Watson doesn’t impress me. BALT getting points is almost always a good bet and I like them again this week. BALT has something to play for, CLEV does not. Look for a RUN HEAVY game by BALT as they roll over CLEV.

THE PICK: BALT+3

Saturday December 17^th, 2022 8:15pm

Miami Dolphins (8-5), (6-7) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (10-3), (5-7-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS                                        MIA+7 ½  

MIA couldn’t beat LAC, how are they going to beat BUFF? After a loss like that on SNF where the MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had one of his worst games and seemed like they never get anything going. MIA had their chances but they were trailing the whole game and never caught up, losing 23-17. Had MIA WR Tyreek Hill not been paying attention and scooped up a fumble and ran it 57yds into the endzone, this game would have been a blowout by LAC. MIA hung around this whole game but an LAC DEF that has been decimated by injures, looked great against a MIA OFF that all of a sudden looked lost for most of the game. Every time MIA seemed to get close, LAC pulled away with either a fg or td. But on a good note for MIA, they were able to put pressure on LAC QB Justin Herbert, sacking him 4x but, Herbert spread the ball around to nine different receivers. BUFF got away with one, yet again. Two fumbles by NYJ with one coming in the 4^th qtr stopped NYJ from possibly winning this game. Had NYJ got points from the 4^th qtr drive, the game may have gone a different way. BUFF QB Josh Allen only completed 16 passes to seven different receivers and was the leading rusher for BUFF with 47yds on 10 carries. As I have said before, having your QB as your leading rusher is a recipe for disaster. BUFF had the lead all throughout the game with the NYJ playing catchup. But if you had BUFF-9 ½ the safety that NYJ scored screwed your cover with the score ending at BUFF 20-12. I liked NYJ+9 ½ because even if NYJ lost I felt strongly that it would be a closer game. Sometimes, the littlest mistakes can add points to the final score of the game. L15 BUFF(H) vs MIA, BUFF 11-4 SU & 9-5 ATS 1NL. L27 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 15-11 ATS 1NL. L30 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 17-12 ATS 1NL. L11 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 9-2 SU & 7-3 ATS 1NL. BUFF 10-8 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs, 1NL. BUFF 6-9 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 4-9 ATS as a FAV 10<pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 26-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 38-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-30 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 19-14 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 4-11 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 6-12-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 21-9 ATS 1NL vs MIA since 2007. MIA 26-41 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 25-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 31-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. This is a revenge game for BUFF after they lost in wk 3 @MIA, 21-19. However, MIA is desperate for a win because they have lost 2 straight and are now 8-5. There is some urgency on the part of both teams here as BUFF has won games but not in the dominant fashion that they started the season with. BUFF L7 5-2 SU but 1-6 ATS. BUFF is winning ugly. MIA needs to keep winning to have a place in the playoffs because it does not look like they will win the AFC EAST. MIA could easily fall out of the running for wild card spot if they go on a losing streak. MIA cannot afford to lose big here. BUFF can’t afford a loss period because that would put them only one game ahead of MIA and a tie breaker would go to MIA if they should finish tied in the standings. BUFF #2 TOT OFF vs MIA #20 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF. The weather may be a factor in this game and if does become so this may be a low scoring game. MIA needs to ground and pound, eat up some clock and wear the BUFF defenders down. If so, MIA may be able to keep it close and might even pull out the win. Take MIA and the points.  

THE PICK: MIA+7 ½

Sunday December 18^th, 2022 1:00pm

Atlanta Falcons (5-8), (7-5-1) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ NO Saints (4-9), (4-9) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS                                               ATL+4

Before their bye, ATL lost @HOME to PITT. ATL had their chances in this game but were trailing at halftime 16-6. ATL didn’t have a bad game, they just couldn’t get over the hump that was PITT. On the ground both teams rushed for around 150yds which took a lot of time off the clock but ATL just couldn’t make the most of their opportunities. ATL lost 19-16. ATL 9-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. ATL has a run heavy OFF because they don’t have any real receivers & TE Kyle Pitts is out. Before their bye, NO lost @TB, 17-16. NO 9-6 ATS since 2007, the week after their bye. NO was up 16-3 with 6:54 left in the game and the ball & lost. Suspect play calling by NO HC Dennis Allen cost NO the game. After the game he was talking about making the most of your opportunities, closing the door, blah, blah, blah. You don’t lose a game like this and all is well. Allen may be dead man walking. Plus, it was against TB & Tom Brady who with his magic arm led 2tds drives and threw the winning td with :03 left on the clock. NO was dominating this game and blew it. There were a few dropped passes by NO receivers that would have made the difference and QB Andy Dalton had a nice game with 0 turnovers. But the night could have been better. L15 NO(H) vs ATL, NO 9-6 SU & 8-7 ATS. L24 ATL vs NO, NO 15-9 ATS. L23 ATL vs NO, HOME 12-11 ATS. L19 ATL vs NO, DOG 12-7 ATS. NO 27-42-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 37-44 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 30-34 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 12-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ATL 30-32-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 38-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 34-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL QB Desmond Ridder is getting his 1^st NFL experience as a starter, replacing Marcus Mariota who is being benched this week. ATL will look to go run heavy as not to put too many pressure on the young QB. Ridder has not played in any games so far this season but definitely has the ability to run as he did in college. ATL #4 RUSH OFF vs NO #19 RUSH DEF. But that was with Mariota as the QB. NO must still be fuming about what happened on MNF and that may motivate them here. NO HC Dennis Allen has shown he is a terrible coach and they need a big win here. They are certainly not winning @CLEV, @PHILLY or vs CAR. These two teams met in wk 1 @ATL with ATL blowing a big lead and NO winning 27-26. Look for Ridder to make some mistakes in the way of turnovers and NO SHOULD win this game by a td. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: NO-4   

Philadelphia Eagles (12-1), (7-5-1) ATS, (6-0) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-10), (3-8-2) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS                      CHI+9

Is there any stopping PHILLY? What didn’t they do in the 48-22 whooping of NYG @NYG? This game was a blowout at the half, 24-7. PHILLY rushed for 253yds. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts spread the ball around to nine different receivers. How do you stop that? CHI is coming off a bye. CHI 4-9-2 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. Before that they were leading GB 19-10 @ CHI going into the 4^th qtr. But GB QB Aaron Rodgers owns CHI and GB scored 18pts in the 4^th qtr while CHI scored 0pts. CHI QB Justin Fields threw 2INTS and CHI had a missed fg. The final score was GB 28-19. When your leading rusher is your QB, it is a disaster waiting to happen. Hence, Fields suffered that separated shoulder @ATL. As a runner, defenders tee off on you. Fields was 20/25 for 254yds but two of his missed passes were INTS when CHI was in desperate need of scores. L10 PHILLY vs CHI, PHILLY 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. CHI 7-10-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CHI 2-7-1 ATS L10 in 1^st of BB HGs vs non-div opp. CHI 30-50-ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 37-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 2-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CHI 15-16 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CHI 6-14-1 ATS 1NL w/rest. CHI 5-16 ATS L21 vs NFC EAST. CHI 5-8 ATS w/rest off an SU loss. PHILLY 2-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. PHILLY 11-15 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 10-8 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 42-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 28-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 2-12 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 4-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV off DD ATS win. PHILLY 4-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3>pts off DD ATS win. PHILLY 7-7 ATS before DAL. The weather in CHI on Sunday is supposed to be cold but PHILLY is 0-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in domes in 2022, go figure. PHILLY is looking to stay ahead of DAL and wants no doubt about the NFC EAST & the #1 seed. CHI #1 RUSH OFF & #32 PASS OFF. That is with Justin Fields as the QB. PHILLY is too smart to let Fields run wild. Force him to pass the ball and he will make mistakes. CHI has absolutely nothing to play for but PHILLY still does. PHILLY has an explosive OFF and when it gets going, watch out. PHILLY leaves no doubt who will win a game. They don’t get conservative, they keep going and scoring which is what you are supposed to do. PHILLY #3 TOT OFF w/#2 RUSH OFF & #14 PASS OFF vs  CHI #19 TOT DEF w/CHI #27 RUSH DEF & #11 PASS DEF.  PHILLY could easily rush for anther 200yds in this game and score another 40pts. Look what they did to NYG and NYG is a better team. Lay the points here as PHILLY ROLLS on.

THE PICK: PHILLY-9

Detroit Lions (6-7), (9-4) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ NY Jets (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                                         DET+1, now NYJ+1 1/2 

LW @BUFF, I liked NYJ+9 ½ and I felt strongly that NYJ would either keep it close or maybe even pull the upset coming off that loss @MINN. But, that fumble in the 4^th qtr by NYJ was devastating in that it changed how the rest of the game was played. Even small details in a game can have a big effect on the outcome of the game. The punt that was blocked by NYJ that went out of the endzone which gave NYJ 2pts was the difference in the cover of the spread for NYJ. NYJ were down 20-7 when they got the safety and then later only needed 11pts instead of 13pts for at least a tie. NYJ still needed a td and 2pt conversion but it was made easier with the safety. Also, w/o the safety, BUFF has the cover. BUFF won 20-12. But NYJ were so close. NYJ QB Mike White took some devastating hits and came back into the game. NYJ Rookie RB Zonovan Knight is starting to look like a keeper but RB Michael Carter’s lost fumble in the 4^th qtr put NYJ behind the 8ball. LW, DET was @HOME vs MINN. MINN is a faker of a team and doesn’t impress anyone. DET was a HOME FAV-2 ½ and that was saying something vs a team that was 10-2. It was all DET as MINN was playing catchup all game but to no avail. DET QB Jared Goff is looking like the QB he was drafted to be. But we’ll see how he does in 2023, if DET can win from the beginning of the season and not just the middle. MINN couldn’t stop the DET OFF but the DET DEF that was invisible at the beginning of the season is all of a sudden making stops. DET was leading throughout and was up 28-13 before closing out at 34-23. This game was a little payback for earlier in the season when in wk 3 @MINN, DET was up 24-14 but couldn’t hold the lead and lost 28-24. This time, there was no letting go of the lead. The DET DEF even sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 3x. L4 DET vs NYJ, NYJ 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. DET 8-15-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DET 43-43-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 32-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 3-15 ATS after MINN. DET 4-13-1 ATS after a div HOME gm. NYJ 5-15 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NYJ 21-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 27-38-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 8-11 SU & 8-10-1 ATS L19 vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 1-13 ATS after BUFF. NYJ 9-17 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ are on a bounceback and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. NYJ hasn’t played a meaningful game in DEC in years and right now they are playing a game that could at least put them in a position to stay over .500. DET is looking to go .500 for the 1^st time since 2017 and the NYJ are looking to stay over .500 for the season since 2015. NYJ are so close to getting over that losing hump. This is the matchup that I like for NYJ. DET #4 TOT OFF w/#11 RUSH OFF & #7 PASS OFF vs NYJ #3 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. The NYJ DEF is very stingy and has had to play against some tough teams. The NYJ L2 games should have been wins but they made two crucial mistakes that eventually cost them both games. These are two teams that are have made great strides. NYJ should have won their last two games and should be 9-4. DET started off the season in DET fashion going 1-6 before changing course and going 5-1. But which team is DET? Plus, late season surges usually fizzle out when there is nothing to play for and the streak of winning ends. NYJ are hungry and HC Robert Saleh has some nice pieces to work with. Mike White says that he is ready to go for this game. But the O-LINE needs to do a better job protecting this guy. This game could go either way and I don’t see a blowout by either team. It will come down to the end and a fg will decide it. I give the edge to NYJ because of their DEF and the way they shut down teams. Look for some turnovers here created by the NYJ DEF and they should win.

As of Friday 12/16/22 at 1:30pm., it was announced that NYJ QB Mike White will NOT be available for the SUN 12/18/22 game @HOME vs DET. QB Zach Wilson will be starting this game for the NY JETS.

As of this news I am changing my pick to DET-1 ½  

THE PICK: DET-1 ½

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8), (6-7) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (5-8), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS                           PITT+2 ½

LW, PITT was @HOME vs BALT. Why was PITT laying points when they should have been getting points is a mystery? This game was a battle as usual. PITT QB Kenny Pickett was injured in the game with a concussion sustained in an ugly tackle. BALT QB Tyler Huntley also left the game with a concussion. QB Anthony Brown came in for BALT and he only threw five passes. But for PITT, QB Mitch Trubisky came in and at times he seemed lost and at other times he seemed composed. Mitch went 22/30, 276yds but with 1td and 3INTS. The DEF for BALT kept PITT in check as PITT could not get their run game going. But BALT was able to rush for 215yds, 1td on 42 carries vs PITT. BALT was leading 16-7 late in the 4^th qtr when PITT was able to put together a drive that ended with a td with 2:30 left in the game. But PITT got no further and the final score was BALT 16-14. LW, CAR was +2 ½ @SEA. I knew SEA was terrible vs the run and if CAR stuck to the program of a heavy run game, they would win out. CAR did go run heavy and SEA couldn’t stop it. CAR rushed for 223yds on 46carries and 2tds. CAR QB Sam Darnold sprinkled in passes going 14/24, 120yds, 1td & 0turnovers and CAR won 30-24. The CAR DEF came up big too, intercepting SEA QB Geno Smith and limiting the SEA run game to 46yds. Luckily for CAR, SEA’s two best rushers were out but, CAR did the job. CAR stormed out to a 17-0 lead and SEA tried to fight back but the CAR held nicely. L4 CAR vs PITT, PITT 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. PITT 29-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 23-15 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 12-7-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CAR 33-25 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 25-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CAR 22-31-2 ATS L55 as a FAV 4<pts. CAR 12-5 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 16-5 ATS off SU DOG vs non-div opp. CAR 2-14 ATS as a HF>1pt vs .500<opp. Right now, if CAR sticks to their run heavy game, they will keep winning. They have an O-LINE that does the job of opening holes for RBs to run. CAR RBs Chuba Hubbard & D’Onta Foreman combined for almost 150yds and SEA had no answer. CAR #13 RUSH OFF vs PITT #15 RUSH DEF. CAR should really be higher because until CMC was traded, CAR didn’t have a run game. Since then Foreman & Hubbard have been a great 1-2 combo. Also, the O-LINE has been giving decent pass protection. Darnold was sacked 2x but he is still learning when to throw the ball away and when to hold it. As for PITT, Kenny Pickett will be questionable for this game and Trubisky will probably get the start. CAR actually has something to play for because TB is not a solid team and does not have a lock on the NFC SOUTH. If CAR wins the rest of their games and beat TB in wk 17, CAR will be going to the playoffs. But their schedule is not easy. They play PITT, DET, @TB & @NO. CAR needs to take one game at a time. As for PITT, they are just playing out the string. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: CAR-2 ½    

Dallas Cowboys (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                JAGS+5

LW, DAL escaped from a game that they almost beat themselves. DAL was a HEAVY FAV-17 @HOME vs HOU. DAL was trailing 23-20 and needed a 98yd drive late in the game to pull out the victory 27-23. It was a sloppy game by both DAL(2INTS, 1lost fumb) & HOU (1INT, 1lost fumb) that led to this game going down to the wire. HOU had nothing to lose but they made some suspect play calling that led to another loss. DAL didn’t win the game, HOU beat themselves. DAL was playing in scared mode for most of this game because they were playing a team that was loose and with nothing to lose. The pressure was all on DAL. The turning point was when HOU had 1^st & goal from the DAL 4yd line but suspect play calling had HOU walking away with 0pts. At the moment HOU led 23-20 which set up DAL’s winning drive. LW, JAGS were a DOG+3 ½ @TENN. They took it to TENN like gangbusters, beating them 36-22. The big turnaround in this game was when TENN was leading 14-13 in the 2^nd qtr. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill threw a pass to RB Derrick Henry who ran with it but fumbled right into the hands of JAGS Josh Allen. JAGS proceeded to get a td drive which made the score JAGS 20-14. JAGS went on to win 36-22. TENN turned the ball over 4x and JAGS scored 20pts off those turnovers. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence had a great game throwing 30/42, 368yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. Lawrence was sacked 0x as TENN put almost no pressure on him. The DEF for JAGS gave up 98yds rushing to TENN RB Derrick Henry in the 1^st qtr but only 23yds after that. TENN was playing catchup for the 2^nd half but to no avail as the JAGS DEF only gave up 1td all of the 2^nd half. L4 JAGS vs DAL, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. DAL 1-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. DAL 18-10-1 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 31-45-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 30-43-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. JAGS 20-20 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 30-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 34-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 0-4 ATS vs NFC in 2022. JAGS 7-1 ATS @HOME after DD SU div ROAD win. JAGS 3-18 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. 1-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs non-div opp. JAGS 9-6 ATS after TENN. JAGS 1-9 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 1-8 ATS off DD SU win vs .500>opp. JAGS 2-16 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 2-15 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 4-15 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400>opp. JAGS 4-11 ATS off SU DOG win. JAGS 7-1 ATS off DD SU DIV RAOD win vs non-div opp. JAGS 5-0 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .500>opp. This game is going to be tough for DAL. DAL is playing another team that has nothing to lose. DAL needs to keep winning because the NFC EAST wildcards have not been decided. JAGS can play big spoiler here again. Cornerbacks for DAL are battered so Lawrence should be able to take advantage of the matchups. JAGS HC Doug Pederson knows DAL and should be able to play competitive here. JAGS need to stop the DAL run and establish their own run and let Lawrence just drop some passes all around. TE Evan Engram needs to stay in the loop as he is very important to the OFF. Yes, he had a great game vs TENN but he needs to be more involved. Yes, DAL has weapons but if DAL QB Dak Prescott is pressured, he will make mistakes. JAGS have nothing to lose. Take the HOME DOG here.

THE PICK: JAGS+5

KC Chiefs (10-3), (5-8) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-11-1), (6-7) ATS, (0-5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS                                  HOU+14

LW, KC was a BIG ROAD FAV-9 @DEN. I liked KC because they play better on the ROAD than @HOME. I was looking good when KC was up 27-0. But no one told KC QB Pat Mahomes to keep going because he proceeded to throw 2INTS that were turned into tds by DEN. He threw another INT later in the game that fortunately was not turned into any pts by DEN. The score ended up, KC 34-28. You can’t let teams think they have hope and that’s what KC did. This game came down to the wire with KC holding on but of course, no cover. DEN battled back even after DEN QB Russell Wilson was knocked out of the game. KC got sloppy and let DEN back into the game. LW, HOU was a DOG +17 @DAL. If you were watching only that game and you didn’t know the records of both teams, you would think HOU was 11-2 and DAL was say 3-10. HOU played their hearts out with nothing to lose and almost won the game outright. With 1^st and goal at the 4yd line after a Prescott INT, HOU couldn’t get the ball in the endzone. This would have made the score HOU 30-20. Instead, it was 23-20 and DAL had the ball. DAL went the length of the field and scored the winning td. The final score was DAL 27-23. Afterwards, DAL was celebrating like they had just won the SuperBowl. Unfortunately for HOU, bad teams find a way to lose and HOU did. But, they can come away with the feeling that they can play with anyone if they put it all together. L10 KC vs HOU, HOU 5-5 SU & 5-4-1 ATS. HOU 2-4 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. HOU 12-16 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. HOU 23-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 28-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 5-15-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 2-11 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. KC 3-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. KC 22-21-1 ATS L44 as a ROAD FAV. KC 43-35-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 34-35-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 11-7-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. KC 17-11 ATS as a non div FAV >8pts. KC 4-8 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400opp. KC 11-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 10-1 ATS after div gm vs .<500opp. KC 1-8 ATS as a non-div conf ROAD FAV >3pts. What does HOU have to lose? The pressure is on KC to deliver but HOU knows that they can walk away from the DAL game with no regrets. No one expected them to be in the game like they were and certainly no one expected that they had a good chance to actually win the game. HOU is close to last in every category but that doesn’t stop them from playing hard. Is Mahomes going to have 3INTS again this week? Probably not. But HOU will probably look to keep things tight. I can’t ignore the BIG HOME DOG pts that HOU is getting. The last time they were this big of a HOME DOG was vs PHILLY on TNF in wk 9 and HOU covered. In fact, HOU was playing toe to toe with PHILLY until the 4^th qtr. If HOU can create some turnovers like they did vs DAL, a miracle could happen. But I see KC winning by 10pts, not 15. Take the BIG HOME DOG here.   

THE PICK: HOU+14

Sunday December 18^th, 2022 4:00pm

Arizona Cardinals (4-9), (6-7) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-10), (5-8) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS                               ARZ+3

LW, I liked KC as a ROAD FAV-9 @DEN. KC was looking good at 27-0 but, KC QB Pat Mahomes starting getting cute and threw 2 straight INTS that were later turned into tds. Anyway, DEN QB Russell Wilson who was sacked 6x, later got wallopped trying to score. He suffered a big concussion and a lump on his forehead. In came QB Brett Rypien. He played decent but DEN still lost 34-28. However, KC got sloppy and didn’t cover. The DEF for DEN got 3INTS but it was a sloppy game on both sides and DEN did have it chances to win. LW on MNF, ARZ was up 13-7 and ARZ HC Kliff Klingbury blew the game right there. Instead of kicking a fg and making it 16-7 going into the half, he took a stupid timeout and decided to go for some lame brain 4^th down play. It failed and NE went the length of the field in :20 and kicked a fg to make it ARZ 13-10. Didn’t matter the game was lost by ARZ but Klingbury didn’t even know it. ARZ QB Kyler Murray left the game on the 3^rd play of the game with a torn ACL. He’s gone and QB Colt McCoy who already got his one win for the season came in. With dropped passes, turnovers and multiple penalties by the ARZ O-LINE, ARZ was done. NE won the game 27-13. Surprised? L4 DEN vs ARZ, DEN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. DEN 9-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. DEN 28-33 ATS @HOME I DEC. DEN 37-44 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 5-0 ATS L5 after KC. ARZ 46-40 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 30-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 19-8 ATS as a DOG vs <.500opp. ARZ 5-0 ATS as a DOG vs .333<opp. ARZ HC Kliff Klingsbury is one of the worst HCs in the NFL. There are 10 guys in the NFL that could do a better job than him and they are not HCs. This guy gets an extension until 2027? This is a very poorly fundamentally coached team. Dropped passes, penalties, missed tackles and turnovers shows that they are badly coached. This team will not win a game the rest of the season. I feel bad for McCoy because the rest of the team has cashed out. The O-LINE for ARZ is atrocious with no skills and no discipline. How many penalties did they have on MNF? They couldn’t guard against a Peewee team. Every play, McCoy had pressure on him and now that Murray is out for the rest of the season, McCoy’s an endangered species. McCoy is good for one win a season and he already accomplished that. DEN has a real DEF but really no OFF. DEN #7 TOT DEF w/#17 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. There are better than NE. DEN’s DEF will pressure McCoy more than NE did on MNF. DEN actually has a legitimate shot at winning this game. After the blow that Russell Wilson took in the last game, I don’t see him back for this game. Sorry, on top of that, there is no reason to rush him back. Look for Rypien to hone his skills and actually get a win here. Lay the points because DEN is getting a win by at least 10pts which will be their best win of the season and their last win of the season.   

THE PICK: DEN-3

Tennessee Titans (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (7-6), (6-7) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                          TENN+3  

LW, TENN self-destructed @HOME vs JAGS. The turning point of the game was when TENN RB Derrick Henry was stripped of the ball and fumbled right into the hands of a JAGS defender. At the time, TENN was leading 14-13 and it looked like TENN would go on to score. But the tide turned and the JAGS would go on to score 23 straight points to lead 36-14. TENN would get a dummy td to make the final score 36-22 but it didn’t matter. The DEF for TENN didn’t make any stops and JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence picked the TENN secondary apart. LW, on SNF, somehow, the LAC DEF stifled a MIA OFF that was on a bounceback from a loss @SF. LAC was coming off their own head shaking loss @LV. This game on paper had MIA coming out ahead because of all the injuries to the LAC DEF. But guys stepped up for the LAC DEF and made stops. MIA was stopped and kept to 1 OFF td. The other td MIA got was on a fumble recovery. LAC was the HOME DOG+3. But if you only saw this game, you would have thought that LAC was a top 5 team. MIA looked lost were down in this game throughout. LAC won 23-17 and to be honest, it wasn’t that close. L10 TENN vs LAC, LAC 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS. LAC(H) vs TENN, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. TENN 27-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 28-31 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 9-6 ATS after JAGS. TENN 8-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs .333>opp. LAC 7-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LAC 35-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 32-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 37-41-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 29-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 14-5 ATS @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 20-9 ATS @HOME v snob-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 3-14 ATS as a div HOME FAV <4pts vs >.500opp. TENN is on a 3-game losing streak and is desperate for a win. Their season will be lost if they don’t start winning soon. Luckily, TENN is in the AFC SOUTH but, they need to start winning. Their schedule doesn’t have tough games ahead except for vs DAL but TENN has shown they can lose to anyone. TENN has lost vs NYG, @BUFF, @KC, vs CINNCY, @PHILLY & vs JAGS. That last one was a total mystery. On the other hand you really don’t know what you get with LAC. From week to week it is a crapshoot because of the HC, Brandon Staley. This guy also takes points off the board and puts his team out of reach in games when thy may have just needed a fg. One week, LAC looks good and the next week we are all scratching our heads. TENN has to get going. Both of these teams are playing for something but this game could come down to the wire. TENN is coming off a sloppy loss with 4turnovers. LAC is feeling pretty because they beat MIA. TENN on a bounceback and Henry is pissed off. I can’t see TENN losing 4 in a row. The TENN DEF has to step up or it will be over early. Take TENN & the points here.   

THE PICK: TENN+3

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4), (10-3) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (6-7), (3-9-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (1-5-1) ATS                          TB+3 ½  

LW, CINNCY was @HOME vs CLEV. CLEV had already beaten CINNCY on a MNF game in wk 8. This was a little payback. The CINNCY DEF came through and held nicely as CINNCY won 23-10. CLEV wasn’t winning this game but it was very close to being a back door cover. On the last two CLEV possessions, the CINNCY DEF held and CLEV scored no points while turning it over on downs. It got a little sloppy in the 4^th qtr when both teams traded INTs and that’s where back door covers happen but, CINNCY wasn’t losing this game. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow orchestrated a decent game while the running game for CINNCY contributed 136yds &1td. The CINNCY DEF kept CLEVE to 71yds on the ground. LW, TB was manhandled by SF @SF, 35-7. The TB DEF couldn’t stop SF whether it was on the ground or in the air. They didn’t even sack SF QBs 1x. The run game for TB was shut down and TB QB Tom Brady threw 55x. Brady also threw 2INTS. One was turned into a td and another didn’t go anywhere because at the time SF was already up 35-0. However, this game was over at the half as SF was leading 28-0. TB was overwhelmed in this game on both sides of the ball. L4 CINNCY vs TB, TB 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS. TB 0-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. TB 9-10-2 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. TB 34-35-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 33-41-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 12-5-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SUATS win. CINNCY 4-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. CINNCY 12-5 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 10-10-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CINNCY 27-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 27-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 6-6 ATS after CLEV. CINNCY 6-5-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 6-7-1 ATS L14 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 0-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss. CINNCY needs this game and all their games to stay ahead of BALT. Right now, BALT is ahead because of their win earlier in the season but CINNCY needs all their games and a wk 18 win vs BALT for the division. After this game, CINNCY plays @NE & vs BUFF before playing vs BALT. They are all winnable but, none of them are easy. With regards to TB, I have said this all season, TB is not the same team and Brady looks done too. He may want to play past this season but it should not be with TB. TB has plenty other holes to fill before they even look at QB. This will be a tight game because both teams have something to play for. If CINNCY wins this game it will be by a fg or less. I can’t see TB & Brady getting smacked around in back to back blowouts. TB also has something to play for and they want to keep playing. It’s one thing to smack around CLEV but Brady has weapons and there are still good players on the TB DEF. I would be very surprised if there is a blowout either way. I like CINNCY by a fg or less.

THE PICK: TB+3 ½

NE Patriots (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ LV Raiders (5-8), (6-7) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS                                                LV+1

LW, on MNF, NE showed a poorly coached ARZ team how you execute and take advantage of bad play calling. NE created a turnover that was returned for a td and because of ARZ’s bad coaching was only down 13-10 at the half instead of 16-7 or even 20-7. NE Bill Belichick is a master of game planning and his teams are well coached. They don’t miss tackle, they don’t get many penalties and they create opportunities. They beat ARZ 27-13 after trailing 13-7. NE QB Mac Jones is still fine tuning his game but, he is learning to spread the ball around. ARZ wouldn’t and couldn’t stop NE from driving down the field. The NE DEF is underrated in that they make stops and don’t miss open tackles. They are fundamentally sound. On TNF, LV was a ROAD FAV-6 ½ . LV was up 13-3 in this game at halftime but LV came out with a different game plan in the 2^nd half and self-destructed. LV punted 3x, kicked a fg and had an INT at the end of the game. LV lost 17-16. Plus, the LV DEF gave up two passing tds to a guy who just joined the team two days earlier.  LV is done and now they play a NE team that still has something to play for. L6 NE vs LV, NE 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS. LV 29-42-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 33-55-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 1-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. LV 14-16-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. LV 4-17-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.500opp. LV 6-9 ATS w/rest. LV 1-8 ATS L9 vs AFC EAST. NE 3-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. NE 10-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NE 36-34-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 50-34-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NE 16-7-1 ATS L24 vs AFC WEST. NE 18-3 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. NE will be looking to pass the ball more in this game for the simple fact that LV has a terrible secondary. LV #29 PASS DEF & #10 RUSH DEF. Don’t be surprised if NE comes out with a lot of screen plays and spread the OFF around. LV is terrible @PASS DEF and their secondary is out of position on many occasions. Hey, they just got beat by LAR. Don’t think for a minute that Belichick doesn’t know this. Also, this is a game of the teacher vs the student scenario and the teacher usually wins. Belichick knows McDaniels tendencies and he will pounce on them. The key again here is to stop the LV run and put it all on the shoulders of QB Derek Carr. I like NE here to win by a td. Class is in session.

THE PICK: NE-1

Sunday December 18^th, 2022 8:20pm

NY Giants (7-5-1), (9-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-5-1), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (4-2) ATS                         NYG+4 ½

LW, NYG was HOME vs PHILLY. I predicted a blowout on my website and on the Rick Kamla’s show on the Bettor Sports Network. And no, I didn’t say it was going to be in NYG’s favor. Well, it wasn’t and PHILLY won 48-22. It was 48-14 when NYG got some dummy td with :39 left in the game. PHILLY sacked NYG QBs Daniel Jones & Tyrod Taylor a total of 7x. PHILLY rushed for 253yds &4tds. WASH is coming off a bye, so they are well rested. WASH 4-11 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, WASH played to a 20-20 tie @NYG. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke had a fumble to start the 2^nd half that was turned into a td by NYG. WASH had their chances and then found themselves down 20-13 and needed a td drive to at least tie. They found it in the 4^th qtr but, in OT neither team could muster at least a fg and it ended in a tie. The heavy run game for WASH mustered 165yds on 36 carries but couldn’t find the endzone. L15 WASH(H) vs NYG, WASH 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS. L24 WASH vs NYG, DOG 15-9 ATS. L31 WASH vs NYG, ROAD 18-13 ATS. WASH 26-41 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 24-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 33-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 9-8 ATS as a FAV on SNF. NYG 17-14 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NYG 15-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. NYG 7-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYG 45-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 33-32 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 37-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 13-11 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 5-17 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 2-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. NYG 8-3 ATS after PHILLY. Both of these teams have something to play for. I can’t see this game being a blowout by any means by either team. They know each other very well. For WASH, Heinicke is an upgrade and he gives the team hope. NYG have to get something going besides RB Saquon Barkley & Jones on OFF. Guys are stepping up but they need to step up more. WASH is not PHILLY but, NYG has to be tougher. You will see a heavy run game for WASH because they are successful at it and have multiple guys that can share the load. NYG is searching for the 2^nd RB behind Barkley. This should be a good game but it will go down to the wire. Take NYG and the points here.   

THE PICK: NYG+4 ½

Monday December 18^th, 2022 8:15pm

LA Rams (4-9), (4-8-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-3-1) ATS @ GB Packers (5-8), (5-7-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS                                               LAR+7  

Before their bye, GB was a ROAD FAV -2 @CHI. GB 10-4-1 ATS since 2007 the week after their bye. But as we all know, GB QB Aaron Rodgers owns CHI. The GB run game ran all over CHI for 175yds & 2tds on 32 carries. Going into the 4^th qtr, CHI was up 19-10 but, CHI could go no further. They missesd a fg and CHI QB Justin Fields threw 2INTs. GB scored 2tds and kicked a fg to win 28-19. In the 4^th qtr, GB outscored CHI, 18-0. The DEF for GB also stepped up and put so much pressure on Fields that he made poor choices. The domination of Rodgers over CHI continues. LW, LAR did the unthinkable. They were HOME DOGS+6 ½ vs LV on TNF. QB Baker Mayfield signs with LAR two days prior and maybe looks at the LAR playbook briefly. Everyone liked LV and I mean everyone. I liked LAR because they were desperate and due. You have to recognize when a team is in that mind set and LAR was there. LAR did exactly what TB did a few days earlier. LV was leading 16-3 late and Mayfield had two drives that resulted in tds and LAR won outright, 17-16. Mayfield resurrected his career. LV showed everyone who they really are. But LAR hung around and miraculously won the game. L9 LAR vs GB, GB 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS. GB 10-11 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. GB 40-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 61-36-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 15-6-1 ATS w/rest. GB 7-2 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. GB 14-2-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. LAR 6-9 ATS on MNF. LAR 3-7 ATS AWAY on MNF. LAR 27-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 30-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 13-12 ATS L25 as a DOG 7>pts. LAR 7-4 ATS w/rest off SU win. LAR 5-4 ATS w/rest off ATS win. LAR 10-3 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. LAR 8-3 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. LAR got a nice win LW but that was vs HC Josh McDaniels who gets more credit than he deserves and is a TERRIBLE HC. I am not surprised by what happened. Moving forward, GB HC Matt LeFleur has had plenty of time to devise a game plan vs an LAR team that has absolutely nothing to play for. LAR got their win and are playing out the schedule. GB has a full load of weapons at their disposal for this game and Rodgers should go ballistic on an LAR DEF that right now is so overrated. GB still has a decent OFF when they execute a good game plan. GB #15 TOT OFF vs LAR #13 TOT DEF w/#21 PASS DEF. LAR DT Aaron Donald is still questionable for this game but, if he is not in there, Rodgers will have all day to throw and pick apart an overrated LAR secondary. Even if Donald is in the game, he will be mostly neutralized and no one else on the LAR D-LINE will pick up the slack. Also, LAR DEF had 0sacks of LV QB Derek Carr. If Rodgers has no pressure, this game will be 28-0 at halftime. I see GB winning by at least 2tds in this game. Take GB and lay the points.  

THE PICK: GB-7