2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 16
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 22nd, 2022 8:15pm
Jacksonville Jags (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ NY Jets (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS JAGS+1
LW, I loved JAGS @HOME +5 vs DAL. JAGS showed a lot of resiliency after their BIG WIN @TENN the week before. It was a quality win and DAL didn’t scare me. Even with the score, DAL 27-10 I just felt that JAGS were not out of it because DAL has shown that they let teams hang around. JAGS didn’t wilt and going into the 4th qtr it was 27-24. Even after JAGS fumbled with the score DAL 34-31, I liked my JAGS+5 pick. But DAL showed everyone that they are not coached well and gave up the ball where JAGS kicked a tying fg to send the game into OT. There, DAL made a big mistake WR Noah Brown had a pass go right through his hands and into the hands of JAGS S Rayshawn Jenkins who returned it 52yds for a game winning td. Jenkins had another INT during the game as well. The run game went well for JAGS as they rushed for 192yds and JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence threw 27/42, 318yds, 4tds & 1INT. JAGS were sloppy in that their 3turnovers resulted in 10pts for DAL. LW, NYJ were without QB Mike White @HOME vs DET. NYJ were -1 then NYJ QB Mike White was ruled out and Zach Wilson was named the starter. NYJ were now +1 ½. I felt that with Wilson in there, NYJ would get beat bad. This turned out to be a seesaw battle and NYJ DEF was up to the task. They didn’t give up an OFF td to DET until the last 2minutes of the game that put DET ahead 20-17. Up until then, DET had only 1td from a punt return. Wilson didn’t look bad but had 1INT that resulted in 3pts for DET. NYJ didn’t get their run game going so it was on Wilson’s shoulders who was sacked 4x. NYJ DEF sacked DET QB Jared Goff 0x. NYJ TE CJ Uzomah caught both of Wilson’s 2td passes. This game could have gone either way. In the end mismanagement of the clock by NYJ HC Robert Saleh is what did in the NYJ this time. NYJ K Greg Zuerlein missed a 58yd fg (wide left) with :00 left and that was the difference in the game. L10 NYJ vs JAGS, NYJ 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS. NYJ 4-3 ATS on TNF off non-div opp NYJ 2-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. NYJ 1-2 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. NYJ 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYJ 21-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 27-39-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 2-5 ATS L7 on TNF. JAGS 1-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. JAGS 8-15 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. JAGS 35-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 26-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 1-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts ve non-div opp. 2-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 5-11 ATS L16 off an SU DOG win. JAGS 4-16 ATS off an SU DOG win vs .400>opp. These two teams met in wk 16 of the 2021 season. They played @NYJ and NYJ won 26-21. That game meant nothing to JAGS or NYJ because JAGS were 2-12 at the time, while NYJ were 3-11. Neither team was going anywhere and they were both playing out the string. JAGS 1-2 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. With the sudden 4game losing streak of TENN, JAGS have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot and they play TENN in wk 18. JAGS have something BIG to play for while NYJ, after a 6-3 start are now 7-7 and are in last place in the AFC EAST. This is another game that could go either way but JAGS have been playing well (Won 3 of 4) while NYJ have been slipping (lost 3 of 4) and on a 3 game skid. NYJ are desperate for a win and they need one bad. NYJ have to get their run game going and keep JAGS RB Travis Etienne in check. NYJ by a fg.
THE PICK: NYJ-1
Saturday December 24th, 2022 1:00pm
Buffalo Bills (11-3), (5-8-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-11), (4-8-2) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS CHI+9 ½
LW on Saturday night, BUFF was @HOME -7 ½ vs MIA. I knew that MIA would keep it close because they were in desperation mode and needed the game. I felt that if BUFF would win, they would win by a fg. The weather became a factor and BUFF won by a fg, 32-29. MIA’s DEF couldn’t stop the one-man wrecking crew which is BUFF QB Josh Allen. He threw for 25/40, 304yds, 4tds, 1 lost fumble while rushing for 77yds on 10 carries. He even jumped over the line for a 2pt conversion. This game was a seesaw affair and MIA did not turn the ball over but the MIA DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it. BUFF was 8-14 on 3rd down. It was fg with :00 for BUFF that won the game. LW, CHI played tough @HOME vs PHILLY. CHI took advantage of some sloppy turnovers by PHILLY to hang around in this game. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts had 2INTS, while RB Miles Sanders had a lost fumble. CHI did not capitalize on Hurts INTs but turned the Sanders fumble into 7pts. PHILLY was up nicely 25-13 but CHI got a dummy td at then end to make it PHILLY 25-20. There was a combination here of PHILLY not taking the game seriously and CHI looking for an upset. CHI QB Justin Fields had a good game in the loss going 14/21 152yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. He also rushed for 95yds to pass 1,000 yds rushing for the season. But for CHI to win, they need to have him spread the OFF out. Opposing DEFs will let him run but cover up the passing routes. L4 BUFF vs CHI, CHI 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. BUFF 3-3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. BUFF 13-15-1 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 1-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. BUFF 11-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs vs non-div opp. BUFF 42-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 38-35 ATS as a FAV in DEV. BUFF 6-13-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 5-0 ATS before MNF. BUFF 1-4 ATS L5 @CHI. CHI 3-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CHI 15-16 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CHI 7-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CHI 31-50 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 38-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 20-8 ATS before DET. BUFF has been winning but, they are winning ugly. BUFF L8 6-2 ATS but 1-7 ATS. They are looking to stay healthy and go deep into the playoffs. CHI really has nothing to play for except maybe an upset. CHI hasn’t won a game since OCT and they are on a 7game losing streak. BUFF 5-27-1 ATS after beating MIA, SU. The weather will not affect either team because they are both used to playing in cold weather but CHI has a habit of hanging around good teams and losing to bad teams. There may be some let up by BUFF because they have the #1 seed and they are playing CHI. CHI needs to capitalize on anything BUFF gives them. CHI has a decent run game even if Fields doesn’t take off. This is too big of a spread to ignore and the way BUFF ha been playing, they will probably win this game by a fg or at most five points. CHI will hang around this game but probably come up short. Take CHI & the points here.
THE PICK: CHI+9 ½
NO Saints (5-9), (4-10) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (6-8), (9-5) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (5-2) ATS NO+3
LW, I like NO-4 @HOME vs ATL. NO had their chances to win and cover but on 2pt conversion, NO DE Cam Jordan grabbed the facemask of QB Desmond Ridder while taking him down. That would have made the score NO 21-16. But there was the flag and ATL got another try. ATL then scored the 2pt conversion and NO won 21-18. This was a game that saw NO up 14-0 in the 1st qtr and do nothing the rest of the game vs an ATL team with a rookie QB that never even took a snap. Yeah nice job, NO HC Dennis Allen. The NO DEF didn’t even get an INT vs this guy. Plus, ATL ran all over the NO DEF. LW, CLEV WAS @HOME-3 vs BALT. CLEV was lucky to get the win because BALT was uncharacteristically sloppy. BALT had 2 missed fgs, a lost fumble and an INT. CLEV had 2 missed fgs. BALT rushed for 198 yds on 28 carries but couldn’t find the endzone. CLEV rushed for 143 yds on 33 carries and also couldn’t find the endzone. The lone td in the game was thrown by CLEV QB Deshaun Watson to Donavan Peoples-Jones in the 3rd qtr to make the score CLEV13-3. CLEV wasn’t convincing but they got the job done. BALT was without QB Lamar Jackson so this is why CLEV was the FAV. BALT QB Tyler Huntley threw an INT deep in CLE territory that CLEV eventually turned into a td. That was the turning point of the game. L4 CLEV vs NO, CLEV 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. CLEV 8-16 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CLEV 16-29-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 9-15-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 24-23-4 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div since 2003. CLEV 3-10 ATS after BALT. CLEV 15-20-1 ATS L36 vs NFC. CLEV 4-9 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEV 6-18 ATS L24 off DD SU win. CLEV 4-16 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. NO 10-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NO 38-29-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 28-26-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 21-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG. NO 13-2 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. CLEV still has something to play for because they have not been eliminated from a wild card spot just as of yet. Watson brings some new energy to the team because he isn’t banged up a lot like other players are at this late in the season. LW, he didn’t turn the ball over vs BALT even though he was sacked 3x. CLEV can rush well but both of these teams can give up the run. CLEV #5 RUSH OFF & NO #21 RUSH OFF. NO #23 RUSH DEF & CLEV #24 RUSH DEF. This game will come down to the wire unless it is sloppy. I like CLEV winning by a td just because they are @HOME. They need to play ball control and force a turnover. I don’t like NO HC Dennis Allen because he is another one off these geniuses that are in way over his head. CLEV is better than ATL and they should be able to take care of NO. ATL rushed for 231yds & 2tds on 39carries. How many yards will CLEV rush for? NO has QB Andy Dalton and he has played @CLEV a number of times. Dalton, in 8gms, 5-3 SU @CLEV. But, CLEV is playing for something. CLEV has to get their run game going to control this game. CLEV needs to put pressure on Dalton because he is not mobile.
THE PICK: CLEV-3
Houston Texans (1-12-1), (7-7) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (7-7), (8-5-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS HOU+6
LW, I liked HOU+14 @HOME vs KC. KC wins ugly and it wasn’t difficult to figure out that KC would ease up while HOU would try their hardest after almost upsetting DAL @DAL, the week before. But HOU being HOU, HOU QB Davis Mills fumbled in OT and that set up KC to win the game. KC played sloppy and they deserved to lose. I was hoping HOU could just get in fg range and upset the mighty KC CHIEFS. But, it was not to be and HOU lost 30-24. KC sacked HOU QBs 1x while HOU sacked KC QB Pat Mahomes 2x. But HOU couldn’t stop the run and gave up 189yds 2td on 33 carries. LW, TENN was in desperation mode. They had lost three straight. I said this was going to be a tight game and a tough one. I liked TENN+3 but, they couldn’t get over the hump @LAC. TENN RB Derrick Henry got his yardage and a td but the rest of the OFF for TENN was stagnant. The LAC DEF made stops when necessary & TENN punted 7x. The LAC DEF also sacked TENN QB Ryan Tannehill 4x. In the end, LAC QB Justin Herbert led a drive that resulted in a fg with :04 left in the game to win 17-14. L15 TENN(H) vs HOU, TENN 8-7 SU & 7-8 ATS. L21 TENN vs HOU, HOME 12-9 ATS. L25 TENN vs HOU, HOU 17-8 ATS. L11 HOU vs TENN, HOU 6-5 ATS. HOU 19-28-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 19-22-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 29-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 11-9 ATS before JAGS. TENN 7-12 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. TENN 38-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 35-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 31-32 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 2-8 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN 7-13 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. TENN RB Derrick Henry has had his best games vs HOU. In wk 8 of the 2022 season, Henry rushed for 219yds & 2tds. HOU #32 RUSH DEF. TENN needs a win here to keep ahead of JAGS, who all of a sudden are looking like playoff contenders. TENN is in danger of being knocked out of the playoffs after being 7-3. HOU is coming off that OT heartbreaker. HOU 0-5 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. HOU never has answer for RB Henry or any other RB for that matter. The reason is that their secondary doesn’t step up. Whether it’s bad coaching or they don’t want to make those tackles, I couldn’t tell you BUT, it’s not happening and it’s certainly not happening in this game. Look for Henry to rush for over 200yds and TENN to win by seven pts, like usual.
THE PICK: TENN-6
Seattle Seahawks (7-7), (6-8) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ KC Chiefs (11-3), (5-9) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS SEA+10
LW, I loved HOU @HOME +14 vs KC. KC wins a lot of games but, it is well documented that they don’t cover games. They toy with opponents and turn it on when they need it and turn it off when they don’t. They played too tight vs HOU and it showed. If HOU had a decent QB and not a college QB, they would have won. But HOU doesn’t have any QBs and they can’t even steal a win. KC needed OT to win this game and they were handed this game on a HOU fumble in HOU territory. KC won 30-24 in OT. KC missed a fg with :00 on the clock which sent t to OT. KC 4-5 ATS since 2007 the week after an SU OT win. On TNF, SEA was down 21-3 to SF and SF could have scored 40 points. SEA didn’t have their run game going and they were playing a stingy SF DEF that doesn’t give up much. The game was 21-6 when SEA scored a dummy td. SF could have scored again but, SF RB Jordan Mason was tackled at the SEA 2yd line. The final score was, SF 21-13. It was not an exciting game but SEA QB Geno Smith did not make any turnovers. He has improved greatly this season and should give SEA something to build on. But he needs a reliable RUN game to help take the pressure off of him. SEA needs to add pieces on DEF in the off-season and they will be back in the hunt once again. L4 SEA vs KC, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS, HOME 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. KC 8-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 39-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 43-36-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 13-6 ATS L19 vs NFC WEST. KC 17-13 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. SEA 36-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 47-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 2-10 ATS as a DD DOG vs .700>opp. SEA 11-5 ATS after SF. SEA 12-4 ATS off div HG vs non-div opp. SEA 6-1 ATS after TNF game vs .500>opp. The DEF for KC is overrated and with SEA RB Kenneth Walker back and maybe Deejay Dallas waiting in the wings SEA should give KC a run for their money. KC is playing for that top seed in the AFC but, they will win this game by 7pts or less and that’s just how KC rolls. SEA will give it their best but just come up short. SEA QB Geno Smith will have a good game but the SEA DEF will get burned. SEA has gotten better vs the pass. SEA #17 PASS DEF. But, who can stop TE Travis Kelce? The guy has more yards after a catch then anyone. SEA #31 RUSH DEF. Watch for KC to get some quality yards on the ground. KC QB Pat Mahomes will work his magic but SEA will keep it close. SEA started out nicely 6-3 but, have lost 4 out of their last 5 and have lost 2straight. Their MO is bouncing back after the losses. Let’s see what they got. Take SEA and the points.
THE PICK: SEA+10
NY Giants (8-5-1), (10-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (11-3), (7-6-1) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (4-3-1) ATS NYG+4
LW, NYG did what they had to do to win. They made some nice plays at the end of the game and got lucky on a few. The game could have gone either way but I liked that NYG were +4 ½ because even if WASH managed to win, I felt strongly that it would be by a fg or less. A good thing is that NYG did not turn the ball over and when they don’t turn the ball over it gives them a great chance to win. NYG DE Kayvon Thibodeaux had a great game with a strip sack and recovery for a td that changed the momentum of the game for the NYG. He needs some big plays in this game if NYG have a chance to win. NYG QB Daniel Jones wasn’t sacked 1x and didn’t turn the ball over but MINN will be gunning for him. He needs to be aware of the DEF at all times. LW, if you didn’t see the MINN vs INDY game, I will tell you like this. One bad team was up 33-0 and the other bad team came back and won 39-36 in OT, ha ha. MINN was very lucky because they dug themselves an improbable hole. INDY showed that you can run on MINN and NYG should keep that in mind. I give credit to MINN for coming back in the game but it should never ever have gotten that bad. INDY also sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 7x. That many times and eventually he will fumble. L10 MINN vs NYG, MINN 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS. MINN 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. MINN 4-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. MINN 34-33-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 32-41-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. 25-22-2 ATS L49 in DEC. MINN 9-8 ATS L17 vs NFC EAST. NYG 3-8 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 3-7 ATS as a FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. NYG 8-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 6-8-2 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 4-7-2 ATS as a DOG 9<pts in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 46-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 38-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 10-6 ATS after WASH. NYG 4-7 ATS as a non-div DOG off an SU DOG win. Both of these teams are playing for playoff positions. NYG have played a great season and beyond anyone’s expectations. They were lucky LW but getting the +4 ½ is something that I couldn’t ignore. I felt strongly that if they lost it would be by a fg or less. But they hung on and won. They did get lucky at the end of the game. As for MINN, you really don’t know what you get from week to week. They could either blow out a team, play a close game or get in a game like what happened last week. The key to beating MINN is stooping their run game and putting it all on QB Kirk Cousin’s shoulders If he is pressured he will fold as his history. The MINN DEF is suspect as well. NYG need to play ball control and keep the ball away from MINN’s OFF. NYG S Landon Collins is an added plus in the secondary for NYG because this time around he knows he has to produce. Plus, his experience can help the younger guys. I see this as a tight game and it could come down to a fg if NYG plays right. NYG DEF needs to play BIG. Take the NYG plus the points. NYG needs to spread the OFF out because MINN DEF can be predictable. This should be a very good game.
THE PICK: NYG+4
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4), (11-3) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (6-2) ATS @ NE Patriots (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS NE+3 ½
Lw, I was duped into thinking TB would keep it close @HOME vs CINNCY. I was right for the 1st half as TB was leading 17-3. In the 2nd half, TB played like the Texans and gave CINNCY ample opportunity to score often. TB had a missed punt and 4 turnovers which led to 24 straight points by CINNCY and put TB in a hole that they never recovered. CINNCY scored 31 straight points and CINNCY won 31-23. TB added a dummy td to make the score look closer but it was over. As other QBs were getting praise, I always said that CINNCY Joe Burrow is the real deal. He is better than the others because he doesn’t make mistakes. Plus, he doesn’t get down on himself when he makes them. He picks himself up and moves forward. The CINNCY run game gave Burrow just enough to keep the TB DEF at bay. NE lost a game that they should have won. They played prevent DEF and that only prevents you from winning. LV is a terrible team and when they win, it just legitimizes their bad football. If you didn’t see the replay, don’t worry, it will be around for ever, so you can’t miss it. One thing I want to say is that it was 24-24 when that stupid play took place and NE should have won it in regulation and that “play” should never have occurred. NE QB Mac Jones had a terrible game and the QB competition should be open next training camp for NE. He was playing against an LV #26 PASS DEF and he couldn’t get the job done. NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson had a great game rushing 19x for 172yds but he started that disaster “play”. The NE DEF did keep LV RB Josh Jacobs from doing any real damage but they made LV QB Derek Carr look like a superstar. NE deserved to lose. Now they face a tougher team and a much better QB. L8 NE vs CINNCY, NE 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. NE 0-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. NE 4-4 ATS L8 as a HOME DOG. NE 8-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NE 24-16-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 23-14 ATS L37 as a DOG. NE 37-17-2 ATS L56 (H) vs non-div. NE 23-11-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .500>opp. NE 15-10-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. 11-3-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. NE 33-16-2 ATS after an SU loss. NE 12-2 ATS off an SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 17-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. CINNCY 5-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. CINNCY 13-5 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 14-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 28-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 28-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 3-12 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. CINNCY 22-6 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 10-4 ATS L14 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 12-2 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 12-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 7-6-1 ATS L14 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 0-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss. Even though that during L8 games between these two teams NE won most of the them, that was during some very lean times for CINNCY. The tables have sort of been turned. The last time that these two teams met in 2019 @CINNCY, with NE winning in a blowout, 34-13. That season CINNCY was 2-14 SU & NE was 12-4 SU. That 2019 season would be the last season that QB Tom Brady would play for NE. Joe Burrow is like a machine and I got duped LW with Brady and CO on a bouncback that self destructed. Burrow doesn’t let opportunities slip and he executed well in the extra opportunities afforded him by TB. NE has been a disappointment and Jones may not be the guy that will get NE back to the promised land of the SuperBowl. Only time will tell. But right now, CINNCY is like a heavy weight fighter taking on big challenges every week. Since their bye, CINNCY has beaten @PITT, @TENN, vs KC, vs CLEV & @TB. After @NE, they have vs BUFF & vs BALT. The AFC NORTH games are always tough no matter what the records are. CINNCY has been up for the challenge and Burrow is in control. He doesn’t get frustrated and he is spreading the CINNCY OFF so that opposing DEFS do not just key in on any one player. He beats you with the whole team. NE QB Mac Jones is up against a team on a mission and has a better DEF. Lay the points here as CINNCY will roll.
THE PICK: CINNCY -3 ½
Detroit Lions (7-7), (10-4) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (5-9), (7-7) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS CAR+3
DET has been on a roll. They have been playing like their lives depend on it and it does. If they had played like this at the beginning of the season, they would be at the top of the NFC NORTH instead of playing each game like it was their last. LW, I liked DET-1 ½ @NYJ because NYJ QB Mike White was out and Zach Wilson was in. But, this game could have gone the other way. NYJ were up 17-14 and DET converted a 4th & inches into a td. But NYJ did not use clock management and missed a 58yd fg at the end. If they had played it right, NYJ probably would have been closer for an easier fg for at least a tie. This game was too close for DET. The DET DEF held NYJ rushers to 50yds while DET rushed for 107yds. DET cannot leave points on the field. The opening drive that DET had in this game was a 1st & goal from the NYJ 7yd line. DET walked away with 0pts. DET had a missed fg and 4punts in this game which they certainly could have gained some points from. LW, I liked CAR-2 ½ @HOME vs PITT. But PITT came to play and held CAR rushers to 21 yds while CAR gave up 156yds, 3tds on 45 carries to PITT. CAR had no answer for PITT and were only able to sack PITT QB Mitch Trubisky 1x. PITT never trailed and CAR was playing catchup the whole game. PITT dominated the clock with the rush and held CAR to only three possessions in the 2nd half where CAR scored 9pts on 3fgs. L7 DET vs CAR, DET 2-5 SU but 3-3-1 ATS. CAR 8-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CAR 4-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CAR 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. CAR 33-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 38-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 16-10 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 12-13 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp CAR 9-5 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 7-10-2 ATS before TB. DET 6-4 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. DET 10-12-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DET 21-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 33-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 13-9 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 12-5 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. CAR will certainly try to get their run game going vs DET. DET #26 RUSH DEF. DET is better than that vs the RUN. DET held MINN to 22yds rushing the week before NYJ. It can be done. Also, QB Jared Goff is better than CAR QB Sam Darnold. Goff is making a name for himself, Darnold folds up like a house of cards under pressure. Darnold was sacked 4x vs PITT. Goff was sacked 0x vs a NYJ DEF that touts itself about getting to the QB. CAR has absolutely nothing to play for and has shown that a good team will beat them. LW, PITT took away the run game from CAR and put it all on Darnold’s shoulders. Darnold is the type of QB that needs a better than average run game to take all the pressure off of him. CAR didn’t deliver LW when PITT stopped the CAR run game cold. DET needs to do the same this week as PITT, if they want to continue their upward climb. DET cannot afford to lose but they should win by more than a fg here. They need to force Darnold to make turnovers while shutting down the run.
THE PICK: DET-3
Atlanta Falcons (5-9), (8-5-1) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5), (5-8-1) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (0-5-1) ATS ATL+7
LW, I was a little stunned that BALT lost @CLEV. BALT played a very sloppy game and missed golden opportunities to score points and win the game. BALT K Justin Tucker missed 2fgs. When does that happen? When has that ever happened? BALT also had an INT & a lost fumble that contributed to a 13-3 CLEV win. BALT RB JK Dobbins rushed 13x for 125yds and BALT as a team rushed for 198yds on 28 carries. But BALT couldn’t get into the endzone and they fell one game behind CINNCY. LW, ATL started out poorly @NO. NO was ahead 14-0 in the 1st qtr before ATL knew what hit them. ATL QB Desmond Ridder started his 1st game but didn’t turn the ball over. This is a good sign. ATL went run heavy, rushing for 231yds on 39 carries & 2tds. ATL is seeing what they have here as they are no way near any playoff games this season. They need to see what they have for 2023. They made a nice comeback @NO but came up short. NO was a FAV-4 and I liked them but it came down to a 2pt conversion that ATL got a 2nd chance at. Anyway, the final score was NO 21-18 and ATL got a back door cover. ATL has been a scrappy team this season and playing with hand that they have been dealt. L4 BALT vs ATL, BALT 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. BALT 6-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. BALT 42-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 40-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 9-11 ATS before PITT. BALT 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs NFC in 2022. BALT 14-18-1 ATS L33 vs NFC. BALT 12-5-1 ATS after CLEV. BALT 14-8-1 ATS after losing AWAY & returning HOME. BALT 14-7 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. ATL 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ATL 39-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 35-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 4-11 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. BALT has not lost two games in a row all season. But, they are not a good cover team as documented in one of my articles for Sportskeeda. ATL is trying to find out if Ridder is their QB of the future or if he is just another perennial backup. BALT has had total dominance of ATL and BALT needs each game going forward to keep pace with CINNCY. ATL is a run heavy team because that is all they can be. Their best receiver, TE Kyle Pitts, is out and no one on the roster can pick up the slack. ATL #3 RUSH OFF vs BALT #3 RUSH DEF. BALT has to stop the ATL run game and make Ridder throw the ball, period. There is urgency on the part of BALT as they need to get a quality win here after the loss @CLEV. But I can’t help thinking that BALT wins games by the slimmest of margins and ATL is playing tough to show what they have. ATL has shown that they can keep it close. If ATL goes run heavy and eat up clock, they can keep the BALT OFF off the field. Plus, if BALT QB Tyler Huntley is playing, he may keep things interesting. This game could go either way depending on the weather. A low scoring game with ATL in range.
THE PICK: ATL+7
Saturday December 24th, 2022 4:00pm
Washington Commanders (7-6-1), (8-6) ATS, (4-2-1) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS WASH+7
On SNF, WASH was @HOME as a FAV-4 ½ vs NYG. These two teams played to a 20-20 tie just a few weeks ago. I had a strong feeling that NYG would prevail even though WASH is a better team talent wise. NYG was just more desperate for a win. This game could have gone either way and it almost did at the end. Both teams ran well but WASH QB Taylor Heinicke had 2fumbles. One that was a strip sack and returned for a td and the other that was turned into a fg. So it was the DEF for NYG that made two big plays that gave them the 20-12 victory. WASH never led and they were chasing NYG. In fact, Heinicke was sacked 3x while NYG QB Daniel Jones wasn’t sacked 1x. But it came down to the end when WASH had 3rd & goal from the NYG 1yd line and jut couldn’t get into the endzone. A td by WASH was nullified by a penalty and that set them backwards. NYG got lucky this time. On TNF, SF was @SEA and SF was the ROAD FAV- 3 ½ . I liked SF because right now, no one can stop them. They had a 21-6 lead late in the 4th qtr when SEA scored a dummy td to make the score SF 21-13. SF ran a play and SF RB Jordan Mason got down to the SEA 2yd line. But, SF just sat on it and that was the game. SF RB Christian McCaffrey rushed 26x for 108yds & 1td while also catching 6 passes. SF QB Brock Purdy had another nice game going 17/26, 217yds, 2tds &0turnovers. The SF DEF recovered a SEA fumble and turned it into a td which made the score SF 14-3. SEA is lucky that SF didn’t go hyper and score like crazy. L9 SF vs WASH, WASH 4-5 SU but 5-3-1 ATS. WASH 39-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 41-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 9-14-1 ATS after NYG. WASH 11-3 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 11-7 ATS off DD ATS loss. SF 34-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 36-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 3-13 ATS off SU div ROAD win. SF 6-16 ATS w/rest. SF 9-3 ATS @HOME after SU div ROAD win. SF 1-9 ATS w/rest vs conf opp. Right now, SF is on a roll and QB Brock Purdy is leading the way. SF is behind him and he’s getting the job done. The DEF is also making plays and that why they have been dominant. SF in their last five games, SF 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. Every game you hear someone else making a big play on DEF. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. WASH has turned around their season and has found things to build on for next season. They have some nice receivers who can get open and catch the ball. They have three receivers, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel & Jahan Dotson. These three should be around for a while and after a training camp together with Heinicke, watch out. The DEF for WASH is respectable too and they are waiting for DE Chase Young to add to the mix. WASH #4 TOT DEF. I like WASH because they are getting better with every week. But in this game, SF is just too tough. SF is getting done with everyone and they will win thus game by 10pts. I like WASH but they are just a few players away. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SF-7
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1), (7-6-1) ATS, (7-0) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (5-3) ATS PHILLY+5
LW, PHILLY was a BIG ROAD FAV+9 @CHI. PHILLY toyed with CHI and let them hang around. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw 2INTS and RB Miles Sanders had a lost fumble. The fumble was turned into 7pts by CHI which at the time made the score, PHILLY 17-13. But this was one of those games where PHILLY knew they were the better team but really didn’t take it seriously. They let CHI hang around and think they had a chance. The PHILLY DEF did sack CHI QB Justin Fields 6x. But Fields was able to create some havoc and rush for 95yds. However, the biggest concern for PHILLY is a strained shoulder that QB Jalen Hurts suffered on one of his runs. He was tackled hard but legal and he has a strain. His availability is iffy for the game @DAL. Anyway, CHI got a dummy td late which made the final score PHILLY 25-20. LW, DAL was a ROAD FAV-5 @JAGS. I said the pressure was on DAL and I liked the JAGS. JAGS had nothing to lose because they are out of the playoff picture. The pressure was all on DAL. DAL was up 27-10 but couldn’t hold the lead. I said JAGS HC Doug Pederson knows DAL and he certainly did. JAGS ran all over the DAL DEF and came back big. JAGS rushed for 192yds on 27carries. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence also threw 4tds. The team stats show that JAGS were better than DAL. The final score was JAGS 40-34 in OT off a Dak Prescott INT. L15 DAL(H) vs PHILLY, DAL 8-7 SU & 8-7 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs DAL, ROAD 17-14 ATS. L31 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 15-16 ATS. L13 PHILLY vs DAL, DAL 8-5 SUATS. DAL 31-46-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 32-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 30-35-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 2-6 ATS off DD ATS loss vs .500>opp. DAL 20-9 ATS as a DIV FAV >2pts. DAL 1-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs .666> conf opp. DAL 6-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts w/revenge. DAL 9-2 ATS w/revenge off SU non-conf ROAD loss. DAL 0-6 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. PHILLY 33-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 40-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 28-40 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 6-12 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp. Right now, the status for PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is up in the air. DAL is coming off an SU OT loss. DAL 3-6 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. DAL 4-2 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. PHILLY 0-0 ATS as a DOG in 2022. However, there are certain things to look at going forward. PHILLY has a great rush OFF, no matter who is carrying the ball. DAL can’t stop the run and their secondary is on life support. PHILLY #4 RUSH OFF vs DAL #24 RUSH DEF. In wk 6 @PHILLY, PHILLY rushed for 136yds. PHILLY played conservative. Also, at the time, the secondary for DAL was still intact. If Hurts can’t go for PHILLY, Gardner Minshew will be the QB. For PHILLY to be successful, they need to go run heavy, eat up clock and then sprinkle in those passes when needed. Dak is the kind of QB that folds under pressure. He will be nervous and make mistakes because the PHILLY DEF will be coming after him. Prescott was out in that game and Cooper Rush had an awful game and he was pressured into 3INTS. The crowd will be into it at the beginning but will be quieted down when PHILLY starts to dominate. Turnovers in this game will loom large and PHILLY should come out with a win. Take PHILLY & the points.
THE PICK: PHILLY+5
Saturday December 24th, 2022 8:20pm
LV Raiders (6-8), (7-7) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8), (7-7) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS LV+2 ½
LW, LV was up 17-3 @HOME vs NE and decided they played enough. They let NE score 21 straight points to make the score NE 24-17. But NE reverted to the PREVENT DEFENSE which only accomplishes one thing. It prevents you from winning. LV moved down the field in 9plays for 81yds in 1:39 to tie the score at 24-24. Then we all know what happened next. LV RB Josh Jacobs was kept pretty much in check but NE let LV QB Derek Carr look like a hero in this one when they should have closed the door. Carr threw a PICK6 that swung the momentum to NE. But, LV got very lucky in this one. LW, PITT was all business @CAR. PITT was a DOG+2 ½ but they ran all over CAR for 156yds 3tds on 45 carries while only giving up 21yds on the ground. The DEF sacked CAR QB Sam Darnold 4x. DE TJ Watt had 1 ½ sacks and CAR was playing catchup the whole afternoon. PITT QB Mitch Trubisky was in for Kenny Pickett and he didn’t make any mistakes. L9, PITT vs LV, LV 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS. LV 23-45-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 34-55-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 12-14 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. LV 8-3 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SU DOG win. LV 10-7 ATS vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. PITT 44-30-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 49-39-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 8-14 ATS L22 vs AFC WEST. PITT 14-17-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. There is a little bit of a revenge factor for PITT. Last season in wk 2, LV with HC Jon Gruden beat PITT @PITT, 26-17. PITT was a FAV-5 ½ and got beat outright. PITT HC Mike Tomlin doesn’t forget. Every time LV wins it legitimizes a badly coached team and a terrible franchise. LV won LW because they played a well coached team that fell apart in the last two minutes of the game and NE looked like the Texans. I heard LV is still celebrating. Well, PITT has found their run game and they will certainly use it this week vs LV. LV#15 RUSH DEF. NE rushed for 206 yds and that was with the -20yds for the Jakobi Myers debacle. PITT needs to do exactly like they did vs CAR. PITT needs to run like hell, eat up clock, stop the LV run and pressure LV QB Derek Carr. By the way, a heavy run game will take a lot of pressure off of Kenny Pickett who is slated to come back this week. Carr will make mistakes even if no one is there. Plus, the D-LINE for LV stinks. They didn’t even sack NE QB Mac Jones 1x. LV DE Chandler Jones? I didn’t even know he was still on the team. He had 3 sacks in the game vs LAC otherwise he has had 1 ½ sacks in 14 games. He has been invisible and useless before he made that play vs NE. Lay the points here as PITT should roll over LV like While E Coyote.
THE PICK: PITT- 2 ½
Sunday December 25th, 2022, 1:00pm
GB Packers (6-8), (6-7-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-6), (7-7) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS GB+4
On MNF, GB was a HOME FAV-7 vs LAR. I liked GB because LAR is banged up and bad. But if you watched the game closely, GB was a little sloppy and they certainly could have scored a lot more points. GB did make the plays necessary to keep LAR at bay but had LAR been healthy, this game would have been different. That said, it also looked as though GB was trying out some plays which is good, as long as they don’t go terribly bad and result in turnovers. But GB did have 1INT and 1lost fumble that helped LAR hang around until the end of the game. GB QB Aaron Rodgers looked happy for most of the game and the run game for GB rushed for 138yds, 2tds on 35 carries. The final score was GB 24-12. On Saturday night MIA was a ROAD DOG+7 ½ @BUFF. It was desperation for MIA having lost 2 games to fall to 8-5. BUFF is a tough team and MIA hung in as long as they could. I knew the weather would be a factor and I liked MIA with the points. But the DEF for MIA was a letdown and didn’t make stops when they needed them. BUFF was just too tough. MIA led this game late, 29-21 but, couldn’t hold on and lost at the end 32-29. It was good to see that MIA got their run game going for 188yds, 1td on 25 carries. This takes a lot of pressure off of MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa. He doesn’t have to worry about winning the game all by himself. But the MIA DEF has to get better. The MIA secondary gave up 4tds and DE Bradley Chubb has had 2 ½ sacks in 6 games for MIA. He needs to do better. L4 GB vs MIA, GB 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. MIA 34-44 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 26-54 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 22-26 ATS L48 in DEC. MIA 9-14 ATS off div ROAD gm. MIA 6-10 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm. MIA 3-6 ATS as a HOME FAV off div ROAD gm. MIA 2-10 ATS as a HOME FAV >3pts off div ROAD gm. MIA 9-3 ATS before NE. GB 17-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 36-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 20-24-1 ATS L45 vs AFC. GB 3-6 ATS before MINN. GB 12-3 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. This game has the makings of a shootout. Right now Rodgers is looking at film on the MIA secondary. GB #15 TOT OFF vs MIA #23 TOT DEF w/#27 PASS DEF. On the other hand, GB #2 PASS DEF will be a match for MIA #3 PASS OFF. GB is still in the hunt and could be a spoiler against teams that they are playing. MIA hasn’t looked good in their L3 games and they haven’t beaten a team that was .500> since wk 3. MIA beats bad teams, loses to good teams. Not a good combination if you want to go deep into the playoffs. The Achilles heel for MIA is their secondary and GB is still in the hunt because there are so many bad teams in the NFL. Rodgers & CO will relish the warm weather and wreck havoc on a MIA DEF. I feel strongly that this game will be close, unless turnovers get in the way. I like GB with the points and suspect that they might even pull off the upset. It should be a good game.
THE PICK: GB+4
Sunday December 25th 2022 4:30pm
Denver Broncos (4-10), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ LA Rams (4-10), (4-9-1) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (3-5) ATS LAR+2
On MNF, LAR was +7 @GB. GB w/QB Aaron Rodgers @HOME in DEC is very tough to beat. Plus, LAR has had a terrible season with injures galore. DT Aaron Donald was still out with a high ankle sprain. GB was toying with LAR and could have definitely scored more points. LAR scored 1td with 2fgs. Give credit to LAR QB Baker Mayfield but I didn’t think he was going to do magic two weeks in a row. Baker was sacked 5x but hung in there. The LAR DEF could not stop the GB run game. LAR RB Cam Akers showed life after being left for dead earlier in the season. GB wasn’t dominant but LAR didn’t make the most of the chances. It may have been different for LAR if they were fully healthy. LW, DEN was -3 @HOME vs ARZ. ARZ is just plain awful and even with Russell Wilson out, I felt strongly that DEN would prevail and cover. Give DEN QB Brett Rypien a lot of credit. He stood up to being sacked 7x and still managed to throw a td. ARZ had their QB, Colt McCoy knocked out with a concussion and Trace McSorley came in but threw 2INTS which one of them resulted in a td for DEN. The DEN DEF allowed only 1td by ARZ and it was when DEN was leading 24-9. The final score was DEN 24-15. The DEN run game got going for 168yds, 2tds on 34 carries which took a lot of pressure off of Rypien. He was 21/26 for 197yd & 1td. He spread the ball around to 8different receivers. L4 LAR vs DEN, LAR 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. DEN 15-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DEN 11-9 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. DEN 33-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 38-44 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 11-2 ATS AWAY vs .333<non-div conf opp off SU loss. LAR 7-10-1 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. LAR 2-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. LAR 28-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 27-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 11-3 ATS vs <.333opp. Whether or not Russell Wilson plays for DEN this week, they should be able to beat LAR. Wilson has played enough times against this team to know their tendencies. But Rypien is getting some good experience playing in these games. What has kept DEN in games is their DEF. DEN #5 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & # 5 PASS DEF. Mayfield is a gun slinger and he will try to thread the needle. DEN will have a couple of INTS in this game and maybe even a strip sack. If LAR DT Aaron Donald returns it may be a closer game but he may be rusty that first game back. Either way, DEN should prevail in this game because the DEN DEF will create some opportunities for the DEN OFF. Lay the points here, DEN should win by a fg.
THE PICK: DEN-2
Sunday December 25th, 2022 8:20pm
TB Buccaneers (6-8), (3-10-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-10), (6-8) ATS, (1-7) HOME, (3-5) ATS ARZ+7 ½
LW, I was duped. I truly believed that after TB was humiliated @SF that the next week they would at least be competitive @HOME vs CINNCY. They were up 17-3 at the half and I was feeling good about the prediction. But the 2nd half started out with a muffed fake punt and 4 straight turnovers by TB. CINNCY then had an easy 2nd half scoring 31 points. In fact, most of the possessions that CINNCY scored on were started from deep in TB territory, all gifts. TB added a dummy td at the end to make the score 34-23. But TB beat themselves with turnovers and plenty of defensive penalties that made it even easier for CINNCY to score. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow took advantage of every opportunity and didn’t leave any points on the field. TB QB Tom Brady contributed to the loss with the 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles. LW, ARZ was a DOG+3 @DEN. ARZ QB Colt McCoy is good for one win and then the rest of his games are usually losses. ARZ was leading 6-3 at the half and the ARZ DEF was playing well sacking DEN QB Brett Rypien 7x. It was a sloppy game for both teams in the 1st half which is expected because both of these teams are really bad. But McCoy was knocked out with a concussion and Tracey McSorley came in and was a disaster. He threw 2INTS and DEN found a way to score 3tds and win 24-15. On one of McSorley’s INTS DEN was deep in ARZ territory which DEN only needed 2plays to go 5yds for a td. Not a pretty game. L7 TB vs ARZ, ARZ 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. ARZ 2-4 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. ARZ 12-15-1 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 40-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 46-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 14-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 17-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 12-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >3pts. ARZ 17-3ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 16-4-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 18-8 ATS as a DOG vs <.500opp. ARZ 7-1 ATS as a DOG >4pts vs <.500opp. ARZ 12-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs non-div opps. TB 2-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. TB 11-16 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. TB 27-38-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 28-31-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 26-27-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 1-14 ATS as a FAV off BB SU losses. TB 3-11-1 ATS before CAR. People may think that TB has a chance to get the playoffs but they really don’t. This team has no fire and shows that their DEF is pretty bad as well. McSorley is starting this game and needs to show everyone that he is worthy of playing in this league. The stadium will be amped up because ARZ is playing TB with Brady but ARZ does have a legitimate chance of winning this game out right. They need to go run heavy and sprinkle in some passes. TB is awful this season and TB HC Todd Bowles has not done a good job at all. I see this being a low scoring game with ARZ in reach unless ARZ gets turnoveritous and gives TB a lot of easy chances to score. This game could go either way but could be a tight game. Also, hopefully ARZ HC Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t make some questionable play calls that take points off the board. Every time he does that, it deflates the team. ARZ can’t turn the ball over. Take the points here.
THE PICK: ARZ+7½
Monday December 26th, 2022 8:15pm
LA Chargers (8-6), (6-7-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1), (6-8) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS INDY+3
LW, INDY was @MINN on Saturday. Well, if you haven’t heard, INDY blew a 33-0 lead. I don’t know which team is worse, INDY or MINN. The play calling by INDY in the 2nd half was completely suspect as they played not to lose, as MINN played hurry up and shredded the INDY DEF. INDY lost in OT, 39-36. INDY had no business even making this game a game because MINN needed the game to stay a top of the NFC NORTH. But for INDY, if you just looked at their stats for this game, it would look like they won. They sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 7x, 2INTS, one a PICK 6, recovered a fumble, rushed for 171yds, etc. But, INDY lost. LW, LAC was @HOME-3 vs TENN. I thought that this would be a close game and it was. It could have gone the other way because TENN was desperate and needed this game. LAC needed a late game fg to win 17-14. LAC QB Justin Herbert had 2INTS but fortunately, TENN didn’t turn them into pts. LAC couldn’t stop TENN RB Derrick Henry but then again, who can? LAC came away with the win and now they have a chance to get to the playoffs. L8 LAC vs INDY, LAC 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS. INDY 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. INDY 8-9 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. INDY 6-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. INDY 32-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 34-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 27-11-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off an SU loss. INDY 2-11-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 1-6 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. LAC 12-13-2 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 1-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. LAC 35-32-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 36-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 29-9-1 ATS L39 vs AFC SOUTH. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor is injured and out for the rest of 2022. INDY RBs Zack Moss, Deon Jackson & Michael Pittman got it done by committee vs MINN, even in the loss. But, LAC has something to play for which is incentive for them to take it up a notch. LAC #11 PASS DEF. LAC stopped a high powered MIA OFF a couple of weeks ago. Plus, LAC are getting injured players back just in time for this late season push. At the end of the season, INDY needs to clean house and get rid of all their coaches. QB Matt Ryan is done too. He’s a statue out there and will be under a lot of pressure ve a pumped up LAC DEF. INDY has shown that their pick for an interim HC with no coaching experience was a disaster. Under HC Jeff Saturday INDY is 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS. However, only the SU wins count in the standings and after the latest collapse a lot of people in INDY have days that are numbered. Their season has been over for a while but, they are putting up some kind of fight. After LW, it is over. INDY will try to show a good fight early in this one but, LAC will prevail by at least a td. LAC needs to stay focused in this one and play well throughout. After INDY, LAC plays vs LAR & then @DEN. These are winnable games and they could end up 11-6. LAC HC Brandon Staley will probably make a call in this game that will be questioned as he always does. But, look for LAC QB Justin Herbert to have a good game and his running game will help out too.
THE PICK: LAC-3