2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 17
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 17 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 29th, 2022 8:15pm
Dallas Cowboys (11-4), (9-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (7-8), (8-6-1) ATS, (3-4) HOME,(3-4) ATS TENN+10
LW, TENN was a FAV-7 @HOME vs HOU. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill is out and probably is out the rest of the season with the ankle injury. TENN QB Malik Willis is the only viable QB that TENN has. Well, TENN RB Derrick Henry whose best games as a pro have been vs HOU had a relatively quiet game rushing for 126yds 1td on 23 carries. HOU is an all of a sudden highly motivated HOU team and took it to TENN. Willis threw 2INTS and completed only 14 passes for 99yds. He was also sacked 4x. The TENN DEF let HOU QBs spread the ball around to 10different receivers and HOU won 19-14. TENN was actually up in this game 14-10 but couldn’t do a thing after that and actually had a lost fumble and the 2INTS. HOU then kicked a fg and scored a td but missed the 2pt conversion. LW, DAL was a FAV-5 @HOME vs PHILLY. PHILLY was without QB Jalen Hurts but I felt comfortable that PHILLY could win the game even without Hurts @QB. Gardner Minshew was the PHILLY QB but he threw 2INTS & had 1 lost fumble. PHILLY RB Miles Sanders had a lost fumble too. The four miscues for PHILLY were turned into 20pts by DAL. Even with all those turnovers PHILLY had a chance to win because the DAL DEF was not playing tight. With the score DAL 40-34, PHILLY was driving but couldn’t connect on a 4th down play in the endzone and DAL held on. DAL QB Dak Prescott was able to overcome an early PICK6 to spread the ball out to 8different receivers. Prescott was sacked 6x but was able to connect on a 3rd & 30 play and throw 3tds. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb had a nice game with 10 catches for 120yds & 2tds. L4 DAL vs TENN, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS but ROAD 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. DAL 15-7 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DAL 1-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. DAL 18-11-1 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 5-7 ATS on TNF not counting Thanksgiving. DAL 3-2 ATS AWAY on TNF. DAL 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DAL 1-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DAL 6-16 SU & 7-15 ATS in gm 16 since 2000. TENN 8-1 ATS on TNF vs non-div. TENN 11-8 ATS on TNF. TENN 3-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on TNF. TENN 1-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. TENN 14-8 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. TENN 8-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TENN 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. TENN 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TENN 13-3 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. The TENN season has gone from bad to worse. After starting out at 7-3, they have lost five in a row and are now in danger of not even making the playoffs. Willis does not look comfortable at the QB position and he really has no one to throw to. RB Henry can’t do it alone. He also may have a bad hip. If he doesn’t play, TENN certainly doesn’t have a chance. In their five straight losses, TENN scored more than 20pts 1x and that was because of a dummy td at the end of the JAGS game. TENN’s DEF has also gone down hill, as they can’t seem to make a stop when they need it the most. DAL is still playing for a better playoff spot. They were gifted a win LW vs PHILLY, (4 PHILLY turnovers) but made the most of them, 20pts. Prescott can’t get too comfortable, otherwise he makes mistakes. The DAL DEF should be able to blanket the TENN receivers because there isn’t anyone there that scares anyone. TENN receivers have caught 183 passes while RBs have rushed 357x. If Henry doesn’t play in this game, it will be a blowout. DAL has to look at this game with urgency and not get lacksidasical. Even with Henry, DAL should win by 10-14pts. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DAL-10
Sunday January 1st, 2023 1:00pm
Arizona Cardinals (4-11), (7-8) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (5-10), (8-6-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS ARZ+5 ½
LW, ARZ was +7 ½ @HOME vs TB on SNF. I liked ARZ and they were looking good leading TB 16-6 in the 4th qtr. But ARZ being ARZ, they gave up a td to TB that made the score ARZ 16-13. Then ARZ fumbled the ball away and TB kicked a fg and the score was 16-16 going into OT. TB got the fg that they needed and ARZ lost 19-16. That’s what happens when you are bad. ARZ QB Tracey McSorley had an uphill battle in this one and for the most part he was up to the task. The run game got going in this one for 121yds & 1td. LW, I liked ATL+7 @BALT. BALT had QB Tyler Huntley and BALT is bad ATS. After BALT took a 14-0 lead in this one, ATL only gave up 3pts to BALT. ATL QB Desmond Ridder didn’t turn the ball over but ATL had to settle for 3fgs in a 17-9 loss. The 2pt conversion after the td was the difference in the cover. BALT didn’t impress and a late BALT stop of ATL on the BALT 1yd line was the real difference in this game. L10 ATL vs ARZ, ATL 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS incl ATL (H) vs ARZ, 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS. ATL 0-2-1 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. ATL 14-28-1 ATS L43 as a HOME FAV. ATL 7-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. ATL 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. ATL 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. ATL 8-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts after scoring 10<pts. ATL 9-9 ATS before TB. ATL 3-10-1 ATS as a FAV vs <.333opp. ATL 3-11-1 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 0-7-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. ARZ 9-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. ARZ 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. ARZ 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. ARZ 5-8 ATS before SF. ARZ 18-9 ATS as a DOG vs <.500opp. ARZ 1-2 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. ARZ DE JJ WATT has announced that this will be his last season. I’m sure that the ARZ team would like to end the season for JJ Watt on some wins. ARZ has lost 5 straight and the season has been a huge disappointment. Neither ATL nor ARZ is even in the playoff conversation so they are playing out the string. As for ATL they are pretty much all in with Ridder @QB. For ARZ, right now McSorley gives them a spark. ARZ QB Kyler Murray is having surgery on his ACL and a time line for a return will be up in the air so you want to see what you have in McSorley. For two bad teams playing each other, it is always wise to take the bad team getting the points. Since I don’t see either one of these teams blowing out the other, I like ARZ with points. ATL doesn’t have much of an OFF except for the run game and that definitely has to be addressed in the off-season. But for now, they will be run heavy. ARZ #12 RUSH DEF vs ATL #3 RUSH OFF. ARZ should be able to put up some points in this game as ATL’s DEF hasn’t been able to stop anyone. ATL#28 TOT DEF. Take ARZ & the points here.
David Blough has been announced as the starting QB for ARZ instead of Tracey McSorley. Hence the line has moved. I am still sticking with ARZ in this game because their DEF should create a some havovc and turnovers vs ATL. It should be a close game.
THE PICK: ARZ+5 ½
Chicago Bears (3-12), (4-9-2) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (1-4-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (7-8), (10-5) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (6-2) ATS CHI+5 ½
CHI has officially left the building. LW as a HOME DOG+9 ½ vs BUFF, they totally disappeared in the 2nd half. CHI was up 10-6 at the half but the CHI DEF did nothing and BUFF scored 29pts on 4tds to win the game 35-13. CHI QB Justin Fields looked lost and only rushed 7x for 11yds. Yeah, that’s no misprint. Plus, BUFF rushed for 254yds, 3tds on 31 carries vs CHI. A total laydown by the CHI DEF. The 2nd half of this game was hard to watch. LW, DET was driving in a 7-7 game @CAR when DET QB Jared Goff fumbled and that was the turning point of the game. CAR turned it into a td, leading 14-7. CAR rushed for 320yds in this game and DET was playing catchup the whole way. However, DET couldn’t stop the CAR run game and that was the difference in the game. DET lost 37-23. DET still has something to play for. L15 DET(H) vs CHI, DET 7-8 SU & 8-6-1 ATS. L25 DET vs CHI, DET 12-11-2 ATS. L27 DET vs CHI, HOME 15-10-2 ATS. L21 DET vs CHI, FAV 9-10-2 ATS. CHI 0-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. CHI 0-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CHI 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. CHI 7-12 ATS before MINN. CHI 0-8 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. DET 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. DET 2-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. DET 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DET 9-2 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 3-14 ATS before GB. DET 12-2 ATS @HOME vs opp off DD SU loss. DET 13-7 ATS L20 vs .333<opp. DET 1-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. These two teams met in wk 10 @CHI. CHI had a 24-10 lead in the 4th qtr and blew the game, 31-30. CHI QB Justin Fields threw a PICK6 which tied the score at 24. CHI then scored a td but missed the PAT and DET came back, scored a td and then won the game with the successful PAT. In that game CHI rushed for 258yds, 2tds on 35 carries. Fields rushed for 147yds, 2tds on 13 carries. I don’t see him doing that this week considering the game he had LW. DET is still playing for something. CHI is playing not to get hurt. If Fields gets hurt in this game, I can guarantee that CHI HC Matt Eberflus gets fired. DET and its fans will certainly be pumped for this game. DET is off an unexpected big loss. LW, CHI looked like they sold out in the 2nd half vs BUFF. The CHI DEF looked like it wasn’t even there. BUFF scored 29pts to CHI’s 3pts. CHI is just playing out the string. DET has to score early and often and take CHI out of their game. DET DEF has to step up and stop CHI from rushing. If they do that, DET will have a big win. DET needs to show they can win big here as the next week @GB will be very tough. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DET-5 ½
Denver Broncos (4-11), (6-9) ATS, (1-7) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ KC Chiefs (12-3), (6-9) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (3-4) ATS DEN+13 ½
LW, DEN was a total sellout @LAR. How DEN was a ROAD FAV-2 still escapes me. I was duped into thinking that after their win @ARZ that DEN may have found something to at least finish the season on a positive note. I was wrong beyond belief. DEN QB Russell Wilson looked atrocious and LAR scored on every opportunity they got. They even got some extra ones as Wilson threw 3INTS to help LAR win 51-14. The DEF looked so bad and basically let the LAR OFF do what they wanted. Plus, can Wilson run anymore? Or does he choose not to? He was sacked 6x. LW, SEA was a ROAD DOG+10 @KC. This is another one of those games that you know KC is winning but the question always is, by how much? SEA had their chances to keep it close but SEA QB Geno Smith made some errors and actually could have run it a few times for 1st downs. The KC DEF was giving him a lot of leeway to run. KC plays a loose DEF against a team that they know will beat themselves. KC was always leading in this game and basically sat back and waited to see what SEA would do. SEA did next to nothing and KC got a 24-10 win. The game should have been at least 24-17 but SEA mad unforced mistakes and errors that had them in panic mode almost throughout the whole game. KC TE Travis Kelce got his usual touches and KC moves on. L15 KC(H) vs DEN, KC 8-7 SU & 6-9 ATS. L31 KC vs DEN, ROAD 18-13 ATS. L31 KC vs DEN, DOG 18-13 ATS. L27 KC vs DEN, DEN 14-13 ATS. L14 DEN vs KC, KC 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS. KC 7-1`2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 2-17 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 0-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. KC 0-2 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. KC 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. KC 6-16 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs <.500opp. KC 6-13 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. KC 4-9 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400opp. DEN 13-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DEN 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DEN 2-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. DEN 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DEN 16-15-1 ATS L32 div ROAD gms. DEN 2-9-1 ATS before LAC. DEN 5-7-1 ATS as a div DOG >1pt off DD SU loss. DEN 9-5-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 4-7 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs conf opp. DEN 4-12 ATS off DD SU loss vs <.500opp. DEN 5-7 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. DEN HC Nathaniel Hackett is gone. He was in way over his head. QB Russell Wilson has deteriorated in his skills so dramatically that he is not the same QB. However, when there is a change @HC, for some reason there is a spark and the team responds positively in that 1st game. The DEN DEF is still very good but, LW they definitely sold out to a LAR team that was given too many extra opportunities. These teams played in wk 14 @DEN and KC started out with a 27-0 start but got a little sloppy and let DEN back in the game. Wilson was knocked out of that game with a concussion and Brett Rypien came in and made a game of it before losing 34-28. KC is the type of team that beats you but not in convincing fashion. They toy with you and let you think you have a shot. They score their points and then sit back to see how you will respond. This is DEN’s SuperBowl since they have been so bad this season. Major changes will be had for this team in the off season. As for this game, I think DEN will keep it close. What does DEN have to lose? They could finish on a high note and break the losing streak vs KC. L14 DEN vs KC, KC 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS. Now, I’m not saying that DEN is going to win this game but, they should keep it closer than the spread suggests. Take DEN & the points here.
THE PICK: DEN+13 ½
Miami Dolphins (8-7), (7-8) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ NE Patriots (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS MIA+2 ½
LW, MIA was HOME FAV-4 vs GB. Sorry, but I liked GB in this game. No one liked GB in this game, whether it was NFL Network, ESPN, etc. I liked GB because the MIA secondary is suspect plus the secondary for GB has been stepping up lately. The run game for MIA has basically come to a halt. Yes, MIA did get 82yds rushing in this game but that was the exception. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had 3INTS on three straight possessions in the 4th qtr which sealed the game for GB. Plus, he suffered another concussion which has now sidelined him for Teddy Bridgewater. MIA WRs Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill continue to dominate but other receivers on MIA don’t see the ball much, making the MIA OFF predictable. The final score was GB 26-20. LW, NE was a HOME DOG+3 ½ vs CINNCY. I liked CINNCY in this game and at halftime it was CINNCY 22-0. But NE Bill Belichick made some adjustments and CINNCY QB Joe Burrow threw a PICK6 and before you knew it, the game was 22-18. This game was a little sloppy for both teams with missed opportunities. NE had a chance to go ahead but a lost fumble by NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson which sort of sealed it for CINNCY. NE QB Mac Jones needs to find some consistency and NE needs some more receivers. NE doesn’t have that one dominant receiver and should look in the off season to bolster their WR corps. L15 NE(H) vs MIA, NE 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS. L25 NE vs MIA, NE 13-12 ATS. L21 NE vs MIA, HOME 17-4 ATS. L21 MIA vs NE, FAV 12-9 ATS. MIA 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. MIA 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MIA 1-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 10-7-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 6-2 ATS off SU non-conf FAV loss. NE 14-4-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NE 1-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. NE 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NE 13-6 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 14-4 ATS w/revenge vs .400>conf opp. NE 18-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. These two teams played in wk 1 @MIA, with MIA winning 20-7. It looks almost certain that MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa will be out for this game and the last game of the season as well. QB Teddy Bridgewater would start in his place. Officially, Teddy started the one game in wk 6 @HOME vs MINN. He threw 2tds & 2INTS and MIA lost 24-16. So the jury’s still out on Teddy in this game. MIA has been slipping with a 4game losing streak. MIA has been streaky. They have won 3 games, lost 3 games, won 5 games, then lost 4 games. NE still has something to play for too. The winner of this game will probably get into the playoffs. The loser will probably go home. NE DEF is good. Just when you least expect it, it’s there. NE LB Matt Judon has 15.5 sacks and looking for more. NE LB Josh Uche has 11.5 sacks. Who will stop these two? NE is coming off a two game losing streak so someone has to win this game and MIA has not looked good. The secondary for NE is very underrated. DB/WR Marcus Jones who seems to be everywhere is out of this game with a concussion. However, lay the points as NE will win by more than 3pts.
THE PICK: NE-2 ½
Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1), (6-9) ATS, (2-5-1) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ NY Giants (8-6-1), (11-4) ATS, (4-3-1) HOME, (5-3) ATS INDY+5
LW, it took a 61yd fg at the buzzer to beat NYG. NYG were a DOG+4 @MINN. Nobody is afraid of MINN and I felt strongly that NYG could knock them off. NYG had their chances but made some crucial mistakes in the way of turnovers. The secondary for NYG let some passes through after they stopped the MINN run game but MINN QB Kirk Cousins completed 34/48 for 299yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. A blocked punt by MINN helped MINN take the lead late 24-16 but NYG came back. However, it was the fg at the end that was the dagger in the heart for NYG. LW, INDY was a HOME DOG+3 vs LAC on MNF. INDY has checked out a while ago and some guys on the team are still playing for next season. LAC still had something to play for but with LAC you never know what you’re going to get. Nick Foles was starting @QB for INDY and this was the first game he has played in a year. Well, it certainly looked like he was rusty because he threw 3INTs. Even with the INTs, INDY wasn’t out of this game and still had their chances but, they couldn’t execute and punted 1x and turned the ball over on downs 3x in the 2nd half to go with Fole’s 3rd INT. L4 INDY vs NYG, INDY 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. INDY 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. INDY 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. INDY 26-12-1 ATS as a DOG>1pt off SU loss. INDY 8-0 ATS as a DOG >3pts after scoring <14pts. INDY 19-5-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 12-3 ATS off SU Loss vs non-div op off SU loss. NYG 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NYG 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. NYG 2-6 ATS as a FAV vs AFC SOUTH. NYG 10-11 ATS L21 vs <.400opp. Is INDY so desperate that they brought in Nick Foles as their QB? Who are they bringing in next week? Does it really matter? How about Blake Bortles? This team didn’t show up vs LAC and now they play a team like the NYG that also actually has something to play for. NYG #6 RUSH OFF vs INDY #20 RUSH DEF. If NYG is smart, they will go run heavy because INDY is weak at stopping it. LW, LAC didn’t even have that great of a game but the INDY DEF couldn’t even make a stop. NYG control their own destiny as if they win this game, they are in the playoffs. INDY is just playing out the string. NYG should win this game by a td.
THE PICK: NYG-5
NO Saints (6-9), (5-10) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-2), (7-7-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-1-1) ATS NO+6 ½
LW, NO stayed in their game @CLEV and got lucky as well. NO was down 10-0 and fought their way back in the cold and snow to beat CLEV 17-10. I didn’t think NO would do well as DOME teams usually do not do well AWAY in the elements. But, no one told CLEV. If you didn’t know who the HOME team was, you would have thought NO was HOME because they handled the game better. NO rushed 39x for 152yds and 2tds. NO QB Andy Dalton threw 8/15 for 92yds, 0tds & 1INT but that’s all that NO would need. LW, I liked PHILLY+5 @DAL but, PHILLY beat themselves. DAL didn’t beat PHILLY. When you turn the ball over 4x and the other team converts that into 20pts, you will not win. Give PHILLY QB Gardner Minshew credit, even though he threw 2INTS, had a lost fumble and RB Miles Sanders had a lost fumble, PHILLY was in it to the end and almost pulled it out. Also, you can’t give up a 1st down on a 3rd & 30 yd play. That just can’t happen. However, the PHILLY D-LINE showed that there was no letting up as they sacked DAL QB Dak Prescott 6x. Late in the game, DAL was up 37-34 when PHILLY RB Miles Sanders fumbled deep in PHILLY territory. This led to another fg by DAL. The final score was DAL 40-34. L8 PHILLY vs NO, 4-4 SU & 4-4 ATS. L8 PHILLY vs NO, HOME 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS. NO 13-6 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NO 2-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. NO 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NO 22-11 ATS L33 as a ROAD DOG. NO 8-11 ATS before CAR. NO 13-5 ATS off SU DOG win. NO 14-3 ATS vs .666>conf opp. NO 16-2 ATS as a DOG vs .666>opp. PHILLY 7-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PHILLY 0-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. PHILLY 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PHILLY 9-14 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 5-9 ATS after DAL. PHILLY 0-8 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 0-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY is on a bounceback after the loss in DAL. They have not secured the #1 seed and need to keep winning to do so. If PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is healthy, he will be playing this game. In a way it’s a good thing for PHILLY because they will stay in a rhythm. As for NO, they have a very outside shot at making the playoffs. But, for them, they have to win these next two games. This week will be a very big challenge and I don’t see that happening vs a PHILLY team coming off a loss with something to play for. PHILLY must get back on track and not turn the ball over. PHILLY also cannot let the NO run game get going. NO RB Alvin Kamara can be dangerous and he showed it in the elements @CLEV. NO #19 RUSH OFF. PHILLY is supposed to be great vs the pass but they gave up 347yds & 3tds LW to DAL QB Dak Prescott. PHILLY #1 PASS DEF has to make sure that NO doesn’t get going. If I was PHILLT HC Nick Sirianni, I would show the 3rd & 30 play over & over. For this game, PHILLY has to get back on track and show their dominance. Lay the points as PHILLY will get a little closer to securing the #1 seed. NO will drop out of the playoff race.
THE PICK: PHILLY-6 ½
Carolina Panthers (6-9), (8-7) ATS (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (7-8), (3-11-1) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (1-6-1) ATS CAR+3
LW, TB & QB Tom Brady pulled another rabbit out of the hat. TB was down 16-6 @ARZ in the 4th qtr but somehow scored a td, kicked a fg off a turnover and then kicked another fg to win in OT, 19-16. I liked ARZ+7 ½ and ARZ should have won. But Brady and his magic play better in the last 2 minutes of a game then the first 58 minutes. ARZ showed that TB can be run on and CAR was probably taking notes. LW, CAR & DET were 7-7 in the 1st qtr. DET was driving to go ahead 14-7 but DET QB Jared Goff fumbled and CAR recovered. This was the turning point of the game. CAR went the length of the field and scored a td and it was CAR 14-7 instead of DET 14-7. CAR scored 24 straight points before DET scored a td to make the score CAR 31-13. The final score would be CAR 37-23 and it wasn’t even that close. But the story of this game was the rushing game for CAR. CAR rushed for 320yds & 3tds on 43carries. The 1-2 RB punch of D’Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard combined for 290yds, 1td on 33 carries. CAR QB Sam Darnold was able to spread the ball around to 7different receivers and sprinkle passes in to complement the run game. DET couldn’t stop it. L15 TB(H) vs CAR, TB 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS. L31 CAR vs TB, FAV 18-13 ATS. L20 TB vs CAR, ROAD 13-7 ATS. L11 TB vs CAR, TB 7-4 ATS. CAR 9-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CAR 0-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CAR 0-3 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. CAR 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. CAR 12-2 ATS off DD ATS win. CAR 20-15-1 ATS of DD SU win. CAR 3-10 ATS before NO. CAR 12-6 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 6-15 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 9-0 ATS AWAY off DD ATS win. CAR 8-1 ATS off SU DOG win. TB 3-3-1 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. TB 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. TB 2-0 ATS vs NGC SOUTH in JAN. TB 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. TB 1-4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. TB 6-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts vs opp off SU win. TB 4-8-1 ATS before ATL. TB 10-0 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts w/revenge vs opp off SU win. CAR likes to go run heavy and they have the RBs to get the job done. CAR #10 RUSH OFF vs TB #17 RUSH DEF. This will take a lot of pressure off of Darnold who we all know gets a little nervous if the game is on his shoulders. TB got lucky with their run game LW but, TB #32 RUSH OFF. Don’t expect TB to go run heavy, they don’t have the horses. These two teams met in wk 7 @CAR and CAR was a BIG HOME DOG +11. I was on my usual spot on the Rick Kamla Show and I told everyone that there would be an upset by CAR and CAR won the game BIG 21-3. In that game, CAR rushed for 173yds & 1td on 27 carries. Foreman & Hubbard had a combined 181yds, 1td on 24 carries. TB had no answer for these guys. Both of these teams have something to play for and I don’t see a blowout because CAR will go run heavy and their RBs will be ready. Believe it or not, because of the wacky NFC SOUTH this season, both teams have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC SOUTH and getting to the playoffs. Both of these teams will be giving their all and I expect CAR to run wild again.
THE PICK: CAR+3
Cleveland Browns (6-9), (9-6) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-7-1), (8-7) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (4-3) ATS CLEV+2 ½
LW, WASH was a DOG+7 @SF. I liked SF BIG in this game WASH showed fight in this game for the 1st half and the score was 7-7. But, SF made some adjustments and really exploded in the 2nd half. The SF DEF forced some errors by WASH and WASH QB Taylor Heinicke was replaced by Carson Wentz. Wentz led WASH to a dummy td late. But the final score was SF 37-20. It should be noted that except for a 71yd run by SF Ray-Ray McCloud, the WASH DEF kept the SF running game in check to a total of 82yds. The WASH DEF also sacked SF QB Brock Purdy 3x. LW, I liked CLEV @HOME because DOME teams don’t play that well AWAY in the elements. CLEV was up 10-0 in this game and then they self-destructed. NO scored a fg before the half and then scored a td at the beginning of the 2nd half and CLEV couldn’t answer with anything productive. The 2nd half for CLEV went nowhere while NO scored another td to make the final score NO 17-10. L5 WASH vs CLEV, WASH 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. CLEV 12-14-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. CLEV 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CLEv 1-9 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp. CLEV 4-14 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 15-21-1 ATS vs NFC. CLEV 2-9 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. CLEV 9-8-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. WASH 7-12 ATS in 1st of BB Hgs. WASH 2-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. WASH 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. WASH 9-5 ATS as a non-conf FAV. WASH 8-10 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs non-div. WASH 15-6 ATS before DAL. WASH 11-7 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 11-16 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH has had a season that no one expected. Heinicke has certainly brought an excitement and enthusiasm for this team moving forward. I think it was a bad idea to pull him from the game LW @SF and put in Wentz. SF is on a roll and better QBs than Heinicke have had bad games vs the SF DEF. The fact that HC Ron Rivera hasn’t stated that Carson Wentz will start this game at QB. However, the team has shown that they play better with Heinicke than with Wentz. As for CLEV, they still haven’t figured out how to stop the run. WASH #13 RUSH OFF vs CLEV #25 RUSH DEF. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t gotten up to speed and right now CLEV has nothing to play for. WASH still has an outside shot at getting to the playoffs and DE Chase Young needs to show that he is fully recovered from his injuries. Look for him to have a sack in this game. WASH should go run heavy in this game and then sprinkle in the passes. Hoepfully Wentz leads the team to victory and not defeat. Lay the points here as WASH should rock.
THE PICK: WASH-2 ½
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8), (7-8) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-12-1), (8-7) ATS, (0-6-1) HOME, (3-4) ATS HOU+4
LW, HOU again played tough. This time they were a DOG+7 @TENN. TENN needed this game but they were without QB Ryan Tannehill. TENN QB Malik Willis is not that good and HOU teed off on him. Willis had 2INTS that blew drives for TENN. HOU couldn’t stop TENN RB Derrick Henry but HOU did force him to fumble. HOU used their two QBS, Davis Mills & Jeff Driskel to get the job done. HOU rushed for only 70yds but were able to spread the ball around to 10 different receivers which kept the TENN DEF on its toes. HOU was able to win the game outright 19-14 by playing next man up. LW on TNF, it was obvious from the opening drive @NYJ which way this game was going. Even though JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence coughed up the ball on a strip sack, he regroup and took command of the game. NYJ were really never n this one as JAGS controlled the ball and the clock while winning 19-3. JAGS rushed for a combined 147yds & 1td and that’s really all they needed as the JAGS DEF also came up big with 1INT & 1fumb. L15 HOU(H) vs JAGS, HOU 12-3 SU & 8-7 ATS. L21 JAGS vs HOU, ROAD 14-7 ATS. L31 HOU vs JAGS, HOU 22-9 SU & 18-13 ATS. HOU 3-4 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. HOU 13-16 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. HOU 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. HOU 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. HOU 2-0 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. HOU 1-6 ATS as a DOG <10pts off SU DOG win vs >.333opp. HOU 12-2 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 9-14 ATS in 2nd f BB RGs. JAGS 4-5 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV. JAGS 1-0-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. JAGS 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. JAGS 0-1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. JAGS 8-2 ATS w/rest vs <.600opp. JAGS 10-6-1 ATS w/rest. JAGS 5-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400>opp. JAGS 6-11 ATS L17 off SU DOG win. JAGS 8-12 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. JAGS 12-3 ATS as a FAV 2>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 10-4 ATS w/rest vs .600<opp. JAGS 2-14 ATS off DD SU win vs .400<opp. JAGS 1-8 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. HOU has nothing to lose and the pressure is all on the JAGS if they want t get to the playoffs. These two teams met in wk 5 @JAGS and HOU won 13-6. JAGS were the FAV-7 but HOU held tough. Also, Trevor Lawrence threw 2INTS but fortunately it wasn’t turned into pts by HOU. HOU can play spoiler here and JAGS need to keep winning if they have hopes for the playoffs. L9 HOU vs JAGS, HOU 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS. HOU has the #1 PICK locked up in the draft so they have a bigger incentive to finish out on a strong note. HOU RB Dameon Pierce is out for the rest of the season but HOU needs to get their RB by committee going to take pressure off of whoever is the starting QB. As for the HOU DEF, they cannot let Lawrence get comfortable or he will pick them apart. HOU has shown they can play tough and almost upset some playoff contenders. They need to do it again here. Could be an upset here.
THE PICK: HOU+4
Sunday January 1st, 2023 4:00pm
SF 49ers (11-4), (10-5) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ LV Raiders (6-9), (7-8) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS LV+5 ½
LW, I loved SF-7 @HOME vs WASH. It wasn’t so much that WASH was so bad, it was just that nothing is stopping the SF express. It was my PICK of the WEEK on TWITTER and it was money. SF is playing better than anyone in the NFC right now because they have a QB Brock Purdy, that understands his role. He uses his weapons around him and takes what the DEF gives him. Even though the game was 7-7 at the half, SF made adjustments and just exploded in the 2nd half. Purdy made one mistake with an INT deep in SF territory which was WASH turned into a td. But the SF DEF turned a fumble & INT by WASH into 6pts while almost scoring on every possession. The WASH DEF couldn’t keep up as it seemed like SF had the ball every time in the 2nd half. The final score was SF 37-20. LW, LV started out the game @PITT on a great note, taking the opening drive for a td. But after that they couldn’t get anything going. PITT made adjustments. LV QB Derek Carr was sacked 3x threw 3INTS in the 2nd half that stopped LV from putting anything together. LV WR Davante Adams was blanketed by the PITT DEF and only caught 2passes for 15yds. LV RB Josh Jacobs only rushed for 44yds and was stopped as well. LV was leading this game 10-3 but and 10-6 but PITT put together a last second drive that scored a td and beat LV 13-10. That has been a big problem with LV this season, closing out games. L4 SF vs LV, LV 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. LV 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. LV 15-16-1 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. LV 6-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. LV 3-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LV 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. LV 14-3 ATS @HOME vs NFC. SF 4-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. SF 12-9 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. SF 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. SF 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. 4-13 ATS before ARZ. SF 15-18-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 12-22 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF still has a lot to play for and could either get the #2 seed or even the #1 seed if things play out in their favor. But, they have to keep winning. Their DEF continues to shine. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. The key for SF is to stop the run and put it all on Carr’s shoulders. When PITT stopped LV RB Jacobs, Carr threw 3INTS. PITT DEF also blanketed WR Adams. If SF stops Adams, Carr will have to find others to throw to. Carr gets nervous when he can’t find anyone. LV is a bad team camouflaged by a record that is near .500. They were lucky to beat NE and they haven’t beaten a team that is >.500. They beat SEA but SEA has no RUN DEF and LV went hog wild in that game. SF is riding high and I don’t think anyone wants to play them while they still have something to play for or when the playoffs start. SF QB Purdy should have another field day in this one as LV #26 PASS DEF will be caught with their pants down. Lay the points here as these are two teams going in opposite directions.
THE PICK: SF-5 ½
NY Jets (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (7-8), (6-9) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS SEA+2 ½
On TNF, NYJ QB Zach Wilson probably got his last chance to show what he can do as an NFL QB. I knew things would not go well from the opening drive. The DEF stripped JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence of the ball and recovered it. But Wilson couldn’t do anything with it and NYJ had to settle for a fg. Wilson went 9/18, 92yds, 1INT & was sacked 3x. Wilson was replaced by QB Chris Streveler and he got the NYJ going but they couldn’t score any points. The NYJ DEF also gave up 147yds rushing and Lawrence picked his spots with passes. JAGS OFF made mince meat of the NYJ DEF and JAGS won 19-3. NYJ need to do something. LW, I liked SEA+10 @KC because KC is terrible ATS. But SEA couldn’t stop KC QB Pat Mahomes who seemed to pull rabbits out of his hat all day vs the SEA DEF. The SEA OFF was terrible at executing plays and that was the difference here. KC doesn’t have a great DEF but SEA QB Geno Smith & the rest of the OFF wasn’t getting anywhere. KC won 24-10. L5 NYJ vs SEA, SEA 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. SEA 2-1 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. SEA 8-4 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. SEA 11-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. SEA 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. SEA 1-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. SEA 15-7-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 5-8 ATS before LAR. SEA 2-8 ATS after non-conf ROAD gm. NYJ 2-7-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 5-12-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NYJ 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. NYJ 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NYJ 5-10 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-2 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ QB Mike White is going to be starting this game and he gives the OFF more of a lift and a chance to win the game. SEA has been showing who they really are and they can’t stop anyone on DEF. SEA has lost 5 of 6 and almost lost in their one win @LAR. They didn’t look good @KC last week and they couldn’t get their run game going when they needed it. SEA was playing catchup the whole game and even though SEA rushed for 133yds, KC was never in doubt as the winner. Geno couldn’t get the plays completed that he wanted to, to extend SEA drives and get in the endzone. NYJ are coming off a horrible TNF game and actually still have a shot at a playoff spot. But it all comes down to them. This is a winnable game NYJ who have lost 4 straight games after starting 7-4. SEA #29 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF. NYJ has something to play for while SEA has an outside chance with a lot of help from others of getting in to the playoffs. But even if SEA got into the playoffs, who are they beating? If NYJ doesn’t win this game big, they are in deep trouble. NYJ have to stop the run and put it all on Geno’s shoulders. Geno may want a little revenge here but NYJ are the better team. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: NYJ-2 ½
Minnesota Vikings (12-3), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ GB Packers (7-8), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS MINN+3
LW, I liked GB+4 @MIA. GB was down 20-10 but GB QB Aaron Rodgers wasn’t panicking. However, GB receivers are certainly dropping more passes than in past seasons. Neither GB or MIA were running the ball successfully but Rodgers kept the MIA DEF on its toes by spreading the ball around to 10 different receivers. The GB DEF also came up big by forcing 3INTS in the 4th qtr and recovering 1 lost fumble. The GB secondary held MIA WRs Waddle & Hill from doing BIG damage. They had 9catches for 246yds & 1td. But they were not able to do damage in the 2nd half after GB made some adjustments. The final score was GB 26-20. LW, MINN @HOME was lucky to get by NYG. It took a 61yd fg to win the game at the end. I liked NYG+4 and it was NYG who made mistakes at the end which gave the game to MINN. For the most part, the NYG DEF shut down the MINN run game but couldn’t stop MINN QB Kirk Cousins who threw 3tds, 0INTS & 0 lost fumbles. TE TJ Hockenson & WR Justin Jefferson combined for 25 catches 242yds & 3tds. What helped MINN with the score MINN 17-16, MINN blocked a punt which put the ball at the NYG 29yd line. MINN punched it in and the score was MINN 24-16. NYG went down the field in under a minute with a td and 2pt conversion but MINN went 8plays and kicked a 61yd fg to win 27-24. L15 GB(H) vs MINN, GB 9-4-2 SU & 9-5-1 ATS. L31 GB vs MINN, HOME 18-12-1 ATS L21 MINN vs GB, DOG 12-8 ATS 1PICK. MINN 7-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. MINN 1-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. MINN 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. MINN 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MINN 14-5 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 10-8 ATS before CHI. MINN 21-13 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 9-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. GB 9-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 2-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 6-9 ATS off SU OG win. GB 18-5 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 14-4 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. 11-10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. Aaron Rodgers is someone that doesn’t forget things. In wk 1 of the 2022 NFL season MINN embarrassed GB @MINN, 23-7. In that game, Rodgers was sacked 4x, threw 1INT & had 1 lost fumble. MINN DE Za’Darius Smith had a sack of Rodgers in that game. But in his last eight games he has essentially disappeared with 1 ½ sacks. Rodgers will want revenge in this game and with GB playing @HOME in the cold vs MINN, he will get it. Cousins looked good in that game and MINN rushed for 126yds on 28 carries which took a lot of pressure off of Cousins. MINN was lucky to beat NYG last week and lucky to come back vs INDY the week before. MINN is a faker of a team and GB will put up 40pts vs a MINN DEF that is suspect at best. MINN #31 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & #32 PASS DEF. GB can control their own destiny with a little help but if I was Rodgers, I would be foaming at the mouth for this one. Cousins will be under a lot of pressure outside in the cold @GB. This will be a payback game for GB in a big way. Look for GB to establish the run and then go for the kill with passes. The GB DEF cannot let Cousins get comfortable. Take GB & lay the points.
THE PICK: GB-3
LA Rams (5-10), (5-9-1) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-4-1) ATS @ LA Chargers (9-6), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-3-1) ATS LAR+6 ½
LW, LAR couldn’t do a thing wrong @HOME vs DEN. It didn’t hurt that everyone around DEN QB Russell Wilson just sold out in this game. LAR QB Baker Mayfield looked like Superman in this game going 24/28, 230 yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. LAR found their run game rushing for 158yds, 3tds on 36 carries. They were helped by Wilson’s 3INTs & a PICK6 off of DEN QB Brett Rypien. This game was over in the 1st qtr as LAR was up 17-3 on the way to a rout of 51-14. Too bad LAR hasn’t played like this all season. LAR had no turnovers in this game. Mayfield spread the ball around to 8different receivers in the route. LW, LAC had an easy game @INDY on MNF but made it look tough. LAC was a ROAD FAV-3 but INDY has checked out a while ago and is just playing it out. LAC comes in and makes things hard for themselves with only a 10-3 lead at the half. INDY is a team that needs improvements everywhere and they were still in this game going into the 3rd qtr. Well LAC was the recipient of 3INTS courtesy of Nick Foles who hasn’t played in a year and was as rusty as could be. If someone else was in there, LAC may have had to worry. LAC wasn’t that convincing, they were just lucky they were playing a very bad team. LAC QB Justin Herbert wasn’t particularly great with 1INT and the run game wasn’t overpowering either. However, LAC won uninspired, 20-3. L4 LAR vs LAC, LAC 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. LAC 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. LAC LAC 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. LAC 0-2-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div in 2022. LAC 10-7 ATS before DEN. LAR 12-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAR 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. LAR 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LAR 14-14 ATS L28 as a DOG 7>pts. LAR 10-0-2 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. LAR 2-8 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SUATS win. LAC is in the playoffs but they are a team that doesn’t scare anyone because they are so inconsistent. You don’t know what they bring week-to-week. Their game plan and call playing is suspect and that is because their HC Brandon Staley thinks it’s ok to go for every 4th down play. He takes points off the board and then puts LAC in desperate situations later. LAR needs to look strong in this game and their DEF is still good even without DT Aaron Donald injured. LAR #5 RUSH DEF. Herbert is prone to mistakes and may have a couple of INTS in this game. I think LAR will come out loose as LAC has nothing to play for because they are in the playoffs. It’s a home game for LAR too because they share the stadium so there may be just as many LAR fans in the stadium as LAC fans. Don’t count out Mayfield because he is showcasing his skills for a team in 2023. Also for LAR, after being left for dead earlier in the season LAR RB Cam Akers is making his way back to respectability and is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Look for him to have a good game too. Take LAR and the points here because LAR might get the upset.
THE PICK: LAR+6 ½
Sunday January 1st, 2023 8:20pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (10-5), (6-8-1) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (1-5-1) ATS PITT+3
LW, PITT was honoring RB Franco Harris and retiring his number. I had a feeling earlier in the week that PITT would win this game in dramatic fashion. I also felt that PITT should have rolled over LV because they are not that good. Well, PITT did intercept LV QB Derek Carr 3x and sacked him 3x but were trailing going into the 4th qtr, 10-3. PITT was able to stop LV RB Josh Jacobs for 44yds. Somehow, PITT made adjustments at the half and LV punted 3x on top of their INTS. PITT put together a very late td drive to win the game 13-10. PITT needs to play better. LW, BALT was a HOME FAV-7 vs ATL. I strongly felt that ATL could keep it close. I am not convinced that BALT QB Tyler Huntley can lead this team to the promised land. I’m not all that certain about Lamar Jackson either. BALT is a team that wins ugly. ATL had their chances in this game but they don’t have the personnel to get the job done and BALT was again playing down to their competition. It was sloppy for ATL and BALT capitalized on some of ATL mistakes and misfortunes. BALT barely got a cover with final score 17-9. BALT went run heavy rushing for 184yds on 34 carries. Huntley threw only 17x completed nine passes for 115yds. L15 BALT(H) vs PITT, BALT 8-7 SU & 6-8 ATS 1NL. L31 BALT vs PITT, BALT 14-14-2 ATS 1NL. L23 PITT vs BALT, BALT 11-10-1 ATS 1NL. L31 BALT vs PITT, DOG 19-8-2 ATS 1NL. L29 BALT vs PITT, ROAD 18-9-2 ATS. PITT 16-16 ATS AWAY on SNF. PITT 13-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PITT 2-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. PITT 3-0 ATS vs AFC NRTH in JAN. PITT 3-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. PITT 8-8 ATS before CLEV. PITT 20-7 ATS as a DOG vs >.500opp. PITT 11-5 ATS before div HOME gm. PITT 10-1 ATS as a DOG<7pts off SU win vs >.500opp. BALT 10-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. BALT 1-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. BALT 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BALT 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. BALT 9-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. BALT 7-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BALT 12-29-2ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 9-13 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. 5-1 ATS as a div FAV 6<pts. This game is always a dog fight. Most of the time they are 3pts contests. It’s always cold and it’s rare if one team blows another team out. Last week, PITT showed that they can come back. BALT barely beat a bad ATL team. There is not a lot of confidence in Tyler Huntley because BALT is going very run heavy. Huntley only passed 17x completing 9 while BALT rushed 34x. Look for the same vs PITT. PITT knows that they can back into the playoffs with a win so they will be ready with some payback. PITT won in dramatic fashion on a night they honored RB Franco Harris. BALT beat PITT in wk 14 @PITT 16-14 and it was a tight game down to the wire. In that game BALT rushed for 215yds and PITT QB Mitch Trubisky threw 3INTs. I can see PITT coming out with victory or getting very close. It has been rumored that PITT OC Matt Canada will be gone after the season. Yes the PITT OFF has looked pathetic for most of the season. Both of these teams are very good vs the run. BALT #3 RUSH DEF & PITT #6 RUSH DEF. You may see more passing than running in this game. In wk14 PITT rushed for 65 yards while BALT rushed for 215 yards. So you never know. Take the points here.
THE PICK: PITT+3
Monday January 2nd, 2023 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (12-3), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-2) AWAY, (4-3-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-4), (12-3) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (5-1) ATS CINNCY+1
LW, CINNCY was a ROAD FAV-3 ½ @NE. They were up 22-0 at halftime and it looked like they were going to blowout NE. NE had other ideas. NE HC Bill Belichick made some adjustments and they held CINNCY to 0pts in the 2nd half while almost making a miraculous comeback. CINNCY looked like TB the week before. In the 2nd half, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow threw a PICK6, CINNCY had a missed fg and a lost fumble that helped contribute to NE’s almost comeback @HOME vs CINNCY. NE had their own lost fumble and a turnover on downs that ended the game for NE. CINNCY barely won, 22-18. I liked CINNCY laying the points and I couldn’t believe that CINNCY let NE back in this game and didn’t score any pts in the 2nd half. LW, BUFF was a ROAD FAV-9 ½ @CHI. CHI has been playing close but not winning. They played MIA tough @HOME & PHILLY tough at HOME. But, this week, BUFF ran all over CHI for 254yds & 3tds. CHI had no answer and CHI QB Justin Fields was kept mostly in the pocket where he only rushed 7x for 11yds. CHI was actually winning 10-6 at the half but BUFF made some adjustments and exploded for 4tds in the 2nd half and CHI could only muster a fg. The final was CHI 35-13. I certainly thought that BUFF would win but it would be a little closer considering how CHI had been playing but, in the 2nd half, the CHI DEF was nowhere to be found. L10 CINNCY vs BUFF, BUFF 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. BUFF 14-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BUFF 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 0-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. BUFF 8-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BUFF 4-3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. BUFF 14-15-1 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 11-8 ATS before NE. BUFF 8-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. CINNCY 1-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CINNCY 13-8-3 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 13-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CINNCY 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CINNCY 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CINNCY 19-5-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 8-7-1 ATS off BB SU wins. BUFF is looking for the #1 seed and CINNCY still has a shot at the coveted prize. CINNCY has to stop the BUFF run game and they have to get their own run game going as well. CINNCY has had a tough schedule and they have shown up every time. The CINNCY DEF #13 TOT w/ #7 RUSH DEF has to make sure that BUFF QB Josh Allen & BUFF RBs cannot run for daylight. On the other hand, BUFF #7 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF cannot let Burrow pick them apart. CINNCY OT La’el Collins was injured and looks like he will be out. The O-LINE for CINNCY has been meshing well and they need to protect Burrow and open up some running lanes. This is going to be a tight game with neither team getting a blowout. This is a game that will come down to the wire with a fg. This is the 1st meeting of Burrow vs Allen so it should be a good one. I give the edge to CINNCY in this one.
THE PICK: CINNCY+1