2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 18
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 18 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Saturday January 7th, 2023 4:30pm
KC Chiefs (13-3), (6-10) ATS, (6-2) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ LV Raiders (6-10), (8-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (5-2) ATS LV+9 ½
LW, KC was @HOME as a BIG FAV-13 ½ vs DEN. This was DEN’s SuperBowl and as usual, KC was toying with DEN. DEN actually led in this game 17-13 going into the 4th qtr but, you know KC is not losing this game. But, I liked DEN with the points because it was just too much to give. DEN’s DEF is still credible and DEN QB Russell Wilson had to show something. KC couldn’t rush the ball vs DEN so they went to the air. KC QB Pat Mahomes found 10 different receivers for 322yds, 3tds on 29receptions. The KC DEF did the rest, sacking Wilson 4x. DEN actually had a chance to win or tie this game late but with their last possession couldn’t do anything and turned it over on downs. The final score of the game was KC 27-24. LW, LV @HOME went toe-to-toe with SF all the way to OT. LV QB Jared Stidham led a drive late that tied the score at 34-34. LV ran the ball successfully but also gave up a lot of yards on the ground. This game was a shootout and SF missed a fg at the end of regulation that took it to OT. There Stidham threw an INT that was almost returned for a td. SF settled for a fg and a 37-34 win. Stidham spread the ball around to 6 different receivers but the DEF for LV couldn’t get to SF QB Brock Purdy or stop SF RB/WR Christian McCaffrey. L15 LV(H) vs KC, LV 4-11 SU & 6-9 ATS. L11 LV vs KC, KC 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS. L31 KC vs LV, ROAD 17-14 SU & 18-13 ATS. L31 LV vs KC, DOG 17-12 ATS 2 PICK’EMS. LV 5-10-1 ATS 1 NL in 2nd of BB HGs. LV 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. LV 16-16-1 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. LV 1-2 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. LV 1-1 TAS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LV 4-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LV 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. KC 3-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. KC 22-22-1 ATS L45 as a ROAD FAV. KC 0-3 ATS as a FAV in JAN. KC 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. KC 0-3 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. 17-6-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 12-3 as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 10-2 ATS after div gm vs .500<opp. It seemed that LW, the LV team was uplifted with Jarrett Stidham as the QB. Could he have a future as the starter in LV? Stidham will be starting again this week and KC really has nothing to play for. KC loves to toy with teams, not beating them real bad but just letting them know that they can if they wanted to. Considering that this is a home game for LV and that LV almost beat KC in wk 5 @KC on MNF, LV has a score to settle. KC will find a way to win this game but will win by less than the spread suggests. The LV OFF seemed to get that lift LW and almost knocked off SF but couldn’t get the job done. LV was a HOME DOG and it was a tight game. I like LV with the points.
THE PICK: LV+9 ½
Saturday January 7th, 2023 8:15pm
Tennessee Titans (7-9), (8-7-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-2-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS TENN+6 ½
LW, TENN QB Joshua Dobbs was in a tough situation. He was starting the game on TNF @HOME vs DAL. Dobbs had just been signed because QB Ryan Tannehill is out and QB Malik Willis has been ineffective. Dobbs didn’t do too bad of a job w/o RB Derrick Henry in the backfield. Dobbs spread the ball around to 10 different receivers and did the best job he could. It was just a matter of DAL needing a win to keep pace and beating whoever they were playing. DAL actually gave TENN some chances by turning the ball over 3x. The score was DAL 17-13 going into the 4th qtr but TENN couldn’t make the necessary stops and couldn’t convert on OFF. The final score was DAL 27-13. LW, JAGS were all over HOU. This game was over at the half as JAGS were leading 21-0. Whatever HOU was doing the last three weeks to show that they had some competitive spirit was washed away in this game. HOU did nothing in the 1st half except punt the ball 5x, turn the ball over on downs 1x and fumble for a returned td by JAGS. JAGS came out in the 2nd half and scored another td to make the score 28-0. The JAGS DEF also made some nice stops. JAGS rushed for 169yds, 3tds on 29 carries. Leading the way was RB Travis Etienne who rushed for 108yds, 1td on 9 carries. He was unstoppable. L15 JAGS(H) vs TENN, JAGS 7-8 SU & 8-7 ATS. L27 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 14-13 ATS. L31 TENN vs JAGS, DOGS 15-16 ATS. L15 TENN vs JAGS, 4-11 SU & 5-10 ATS. JAGS 2-0-1 ATS va AFC SOUTH in JAN. JAGS 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. JAGS 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. JAGS 8-1 ATS @HOME off DD SU div ROAD win. JAGS 8-9 ATS after HOU. JAGS 4-7 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. JAGS 9-0 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 9-1 ATS @HOME vs div opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. TENN 0-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. TENN 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. TENN 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TENN 9-1 ATS as a DOG vs opp off BB SUTAS wins. TENN is pretty much done. They were cruising along nicely at 7-3 and everything fell apart. The teams that TENN were playing going forward picked up on TENN’s weaknesses and exploited them. TENN couldn’t get anything going on OFF and their DEF would get shredded and couldn’t make stops. The JAGS have had a resurgence and Lawrence is looking like the QB that they envisioned. RB Etienne is looking good with explosiveness and he takes a lot of pressure off of Lawrence. JAGS actually have something to play for in this game and the place should be rocking with excitement. The fact that JAGS are in the playoffs if they beat TENN should have the crowd excited. TENN is starting Joshua Dobbs @QB and he didn’t do that bad a job vs DAL on TNF. I like the JAGS in this game to win but, I think it will be closer than the spread suggests because TENN also has something to gain as well. This is a revenge game for them having lost in wk 14 @HOME to JAGS, 36-22. TENN was embarrassed there. By the way, RB Derrick Henry will be well rested and ready for this game. If Dobbs can spread the ball around like he did vs DAL, we will have a game here.
THE PICK: TENN+6 ½
Sunday January 8th, 2023 1:00pm
TB Buccaneers (8-8), (4-11-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @Atlanta Falcons (6-10), (8-7-1) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (4-3-1) ATS TB+4
LW, vintage Brady was on display. TB was down 21-10 in the 4th qtr and TB got it going. They scored 20 straight points and won 30-24. CAR had this game but blew it and TB QB Tom Brady just took apart the CAR DEF. Brady was 34/45, 432yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. His favorite target was WR Mike Evans who doesn’t drop passes. Evans had 10 catches for 207yds & 3tds. The CAR DEF couldn’t stop him. LW, ATL needed a last second fg to beat an ARZ team that is on their 4th QB. ATL QB Desmond Ridder is getting more comfortable in the role as starting QB but he needs more tools than just RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson & RB Tyler Allgeier around him. ARZ was sloppy in this game and ATL took advantage of it. ATL went run heavy in this game but was lucky at the end to win 20-19. L15 ATL(H) vs TB, 8-7 SU & 6-8-1 ATS. L24 ATL vs TB, FAV 13-10-1 ATS. L23 TB vs ATL, HOME 12-10-1 ATS. L13 TB vs ATL, ATL 7-6 ATS. ATL 3-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. ATL 0-2 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. ATL 0-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. ATL 0-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. ATL 0-3-1 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. ATL 0-8 ATS @HOME vs <.800 div opp off SU win. ATL 2-12 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SUATS win. TB 3-0 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. TB 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. TB 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TB 15-13-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. TB 0-10 ATS as a div DOG vs opp w/revenge. TB 6-9-1 ATS after CAR. TB 8-1 ATS vs <.400div opp. LW, Brady looked like the old Brady that we all know. He read the CAR DEF and hit them time and time again. CAR was not up to the challenge to stop Brady. He is clicking just at the right time. TB has nothing to play for except being fresh for the playoffs. If they win, they will be above >.500 and get ready to host a playoff game. ATL has nothing to play for and will have a lot of holes to fill in the off season. ATL barely beat ARZ last week as a HEAVY FAV. How will they fare against a TB that is looking to do some damage going forward? These two teams met in wk 4 @TB and TB was leading 21-0 before ATL mounted a comeback. ATL was flagged with a bogus roughing the passer call and that blew any chance of ATL getting the ball back for a score. Wk 4 seems like it was a long time ago but since then ATL has gone south while TB has changed a few things and have gotten better. I see TB winning by a td.
THE PICK: TB+4
NE Patriots (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (12-3), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (2-5) ATS NE+7 ½
LW, for BUFF @CINNCY on MNF, we all know what happened to CB Damar Hamlin and we are all hoping that he recovers and is ok. The game was suspended and at this time the NFL has not decided what to do about the suspended game. LW, NE was @HOME -2 ½ vs MIA. MIA started QB Teddy Bridgewater and he got injured. Skyler Thompson came in @QB. NE needed this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. This game went back and forth but because of a missed extra point by NE that was the difference in the cover but NE won the game, 23-21. It was a sloppy game by MIA and NE needed to take full advantage and distance themselves in this game. NE missed some opportunities to fully execute. However, a win is a win. L24 BUFF(H) vs NE, BUFF 4-20 ATS. L15 BUFF(H) vs NE, BUFF 2-13 SU & 3-11-1 ATS. L31 NE vs BUFF, NE 24-7 SU & 18-11-2 ATS. NE 1-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. NE 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NE 2-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG in JAN. NE 29-17-2 ATS as a RAOD DOG. NE 14-5 ATS after MIA. NE 14-4 ATS w/revenge vs .400>conf opp. BUFF 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. BUFF 2-0 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. BUFF 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 19-15 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. We don’t really know how BUFF is feeling for this game but unfortunately they have to play. Some players may be up for this game and others may have their minds on Damar Hamlin. But BUFF needs this game definitely if they have any shot at the #1 seed in the AFC. Also, there are players that have incentives tied to their contracts. This is normal in every sport. There are probably players on BUFF that need this game to get their money and it is completely understandable. For NE, they need this game to still be in the playoff hunt so they have a reason to play hard. Considering the emotions that the BUFF team and its coaches are going through this week, I would have to take NE with the points here. NE will be ready to go because NE HC Bill Belichick knows how to prepare his team under any circumstances.
THE PICK: NE+7 ½
Minnesota Vikings (12-4), (7-8-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-13), (4-10-2) ATS, (2-6) HOME, (3-5) ATS CHI+4
LW, MINN had no chance @GB. Sorry, but this was a payback game for GB as I stated here and the Bettor Sports Network 2x during the week. MINN QB Kirk Cousins was intercepted 3x, one for a PICK6. MINN WR Justin Jefferson had one catch for 15yds. He was blanketed all night by the GB DEF. GB had a kickoff return for a td and the GB DEF didn’t allow MINN to get their OFF going until late in the 4th qtr when the game was really over. MINN was down 27-3 at halftime and lost 41-17. The MINN DEF didn’t help much and they gave up 163yds rushing & 2tds on 33carries to GB. LW, CHI was @DET just playing out the season. DET was playing for something and CHI was not. But CHI QB Justin Fields is still playing tough and he rushed for 132yds on 10 carries. But he had a lost fumble that led to a DET fg. Fields was sacked 7x by a DET DEF that is not known for its pressure. The CHI DEF was non-existent in this game as they gave up over 500yds of OFF to DET with 265yds & 2tds on 39carries on the ground. The score was DET 24-10 at the half and CHI didn’t do anything much in the 2nd half. CHI punted 5x in the 2nd half and turned the ball over on downs while DET scored 17pts to make the final score, DET 41-10. L15 CHI(H) vs MINN, CHI 10-5 SU & 9-5-1 ATS. L31 MINN vs CHI, HOME 17-12-1 ATS 1 NL. L15 MINN vs CHI, FAV 9-4-1 ATS 1 NL. CHI 3-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. CHI 16-17 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. CHI 0-3 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. CHI 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CHI 0-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CHI 11-3 ATS @HOME w/revenge off DD ATS loss. CHI 8-2 ATS @HOME off BB SU losses when hosting MINN. MINN 2-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. MINN 19-8 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 15-4 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MINN 1-3 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. MINN 0-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. MINN 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. MINN 12-7 ATS after GB. MINN 10-3-1 ATS vs div opp off loss. 2-17 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss vs <.500opp. MINN 1-9 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss vs div opp. MINN 2-8 ATS off DD ATS loss vs div opp. Both of these teams are coming off big losses but MINN knows that they need this game for playoff positioning. They need to bounce back after their dismal showing LW @GB. Cousins needs to get in playoff mode and the DEF for MINN needs to get better real soon. MINN #31 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #31 PASS DEF. CHI has a problems on both sides of the ball and needs to have them addressed in the off season. CHI #28 TOT DEF w/ #31 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. Besides having a terrible DEF, CHI needs to get reliable receivers for Fields to throw to. No one on the team has stepped up and no one currently on the roster is a legitimate #1. Lay the points here as MINN gets on track for the playoffs and CHI just finishes out the season with a 10game losing streak. In this game, MINN cannot let Fields feel free to just takeoff and run. This is something that the MINN DEF needs to stop, otherwise it will be a game that gets away from them. MINN needs to make sure that Fields stays in the pocket and throws the ball. He cannot take off.
On Wed 1/4 it has just been announced that CHI QB Justin Fields will not play this game because of a strained hip. Nathan Peterman will be starting for CHI @QB. My pick for this game stays the same.
THE PICK: MINN-4
Baltimore Ravens (10-6), (6-9-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-4), (12-3) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (5-1) ATS BALT+7
LW, CINNCY+1 @HOME vs BUFF was suspended due to the unfortunate tragedy to CB Damar Hamlin. I hope he makes a full recovery. Whether or not that game gets made up has not been decided by the NFL. LW, BALT was the HOME FAV-3 vs PITT. I had a strong feeling that PITT would win because they are playing to get into the playoffs. In this game, the BALT DEF that is great vs the run, gave up 198yds rushing on 41 carries to PITT. This opened the door for PITT to drop passes when needed and to continue drives. I said this game would be a 3pt contest and it was. The difference here was that PITT QB Kenny Pickett threw a perfect pass to RB Najee Harris that led him into the endzone with less than 1:00 to play. BALT QB Tyler Huntley had a decent game with his only turnover coming at the end of the game. The run game was effective for BALT as they rushed for 120yds on 28carries. I said this game would be a battle and it came down to the end. L15 CINNCY(H) vs BALT, CINNCY 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS. L27 CINNCY vs BALT, CINNCY 17-8-1 ATS 1NL. L21 CINNCY vs BALT, FAV 12-9-1 ATS 1NL. BALT 1-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. BALT 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. BALT 1-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. BALT 11-4 ATS as a div DOG. BALT 5-1 ATS as a div DOG >3pts. CINNCY 11-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 1-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CINNCY 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CINNCY 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. CINNCY has a job to do and they are still battling for the #1 seed. If the game had been played LW without the unfortunate tragedy, I felt strongly that CINNCY would have won the game outright. But since CINNCY really didn’t play that game, they should be well rested for this game. BALT QB Huntley will be starting in this game. He didn’t necessarily have a bad game vs PITT LW, it was that the PITT DEF was pumped and making stops all over the field. BALT has not been playing their best football since QB Lamar Jackson went down. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has had more time this week to look at film and he will pick the BALT DEF apart. BALT will go heavy on the run and they will get stopped. This will force Huntley to throw and he will get into trouble. CINNCY needs a strong game here and can secure their lead over BALT in the AFC NORTH. If CINNCY loses this game and lose the suspended game, they would drop lower in the playoffs with a much lower seed. But, I don’t see that happening here. Burrow is the main and he will rise to the occasion as CINNCY has done all season. These two teams met in wk 5 and the game was decided by a Justin Tucker fg at the end of the game making the score BALT 19-17. There is a revenge factor for CINNCY here. They should win by 10pts. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CINNCY-7
Houston Texans (2-13-1), (8-8) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1), (6-10) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS HOU+3
LW, INDY was @NYG. INDY has absolutely nothing to play for and they showed it On top of that INDY QB Nick Foles was knocked out of the game and will not be back. INDY lost 38-10 and this game was NYG 24-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. If you just looked at the stats for both teams, you would think this was a close game but it wasn’t at all and INDY played catchup the whole game. NYG QB Daniel Jones made mince meat of the INDY DEF whether it was by his feet or his arm. The INDY DEF was out of position all afternoon. LW, HOU was never in the game @HOME vs JAGS. It was JAGS 21-0 at the half after HOU fumbled and it was returned for a td. The only positive was that HOU spread the ball around to 11 different receivers but, they played catchup the whole game. The final score was JAGS 31-3. L15 INDY(H) vs HOU, INDY 12-3 SU & 9-5-1 ATS. L25 INDY vs HOU, HOME 12-11-2 ATS. L27 INDY vs HOU, FAV 13-11-2 ATS 1PIK’EM. L21 INDY vs HOU, INDY 17-8-2 ATS. L8 HOU vs INDY, INDY 6-1-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS. INDY 0-2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. INDY 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. INDY 0-1-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. INDY 12-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. INDY 8-2 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 19-13 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 19-6-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 9-0 ATS as a FAV 3>pts after allowing 35>pts. INDY 1-7 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. HOU 2-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. HOU 2-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. HOU 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. HOU 7-6-2 ATS after JAGS. HOU 13-8-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. Both of these teams are coming off losses and INDY has shown that the whole HC Jeff Saturday experiment was a disaster. He is 1-6 SU & 2-4 ATS. But right now, it looks like Sam Ehlinger will be starting at QB after Foles was knocked out of the game @NYG. Ehlinger played well in the loss vs WASH on wk8 but looked just OK in the week 9 loss @NE. At this point, INDY is just playing it out and has many questions to be answered in the off-season. HOU looked horrible LW vs JAGS after looking competitive for a few weeks and almost knocking off DAL & KC. They looked good in their win vs TENN but fell back to Earth. HOU has a lot of questions that need to be answered for the coaching staff and players and they should get cracking right after the season ends. They will have the #1 Pick and that will help them secure a QB. These two teams played in wk1 to a 20-20 tie. INDY is the bigger disappointment because they had a good team n paper and didn’t get it done. But HOU didn’t disappoint anyone because they are bad. They can only go up from here. For this game, I like HOU plus the points because believe it or not at this point HOU is better. It could be a toss up and I don’t see either one of these teams blowing out the other, so I like the points. HOU has a better chance to win.
THE PICK: HOU+3
NY Jets (7-9), (8-8) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS NYJ+1
LW, MIA was +2 ½ @NE. I liked NE and even though MIA played a sloppy game with turnovers and losing their QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIA still managed to keep it close. Bridgewater left the game with a hand injury and Skyler Thompson came in and rallied the troops. With NE leading 23-14, he led MIA on a td drive very late in the game that made the score 23-21. MIA got no closer but because of a missed extra pt by NE, MIA got the back door cover. I liked NE in this game laying the points and they took advantage of miscues by MIA. LW, NYJ looked flat @SEA. I thought with QB Mike White coming back to start it would get the team going in the right direction. NYJ still had a shot at a playoff spot but they looked lost for most of the game and the DEF couldn’t make any stops. SEA ran away with is game, 23-6. This game was 17-6 at the half and MYJ could do nothing in the 2nd half. SEA rushed over NYJ for 198yds on 38carries. The usually stingy NYJ DEF had no answers for the SEA OFF. L15 MIA(H) vs NYJ, MIA 8-7 SU & 6-9 ATS. L15 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 17-9 ATS. L31 NYJ vs MIA, DOG 19-11-1 ATS. L24 NYJ @MIA, NYJ 17-7 ATS. NYJ 9-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYJ 0-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. NYJ 0-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NYJ 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYJ 5-11 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-16 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. NYJ 10-3 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. MIA 1-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. MIA 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. MIA 9-15 ATS off div ROAD gm. MIA 6-11 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm. MIA 3-7 ATS as a HOME FAV off div ROAD gm. MIA 10-4 ATS @HOME w/div revenge. MIA 6-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV w/revenge. MIA 5-3 ATS as a div HOME FAV 5<pts. MIA 0-9 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). Both of these teams have had monumental collapses this season. It looked promising for NYJ when they were 7-4 and there was talk about the playoffs. But since then, the OFF has fell apart with struggles just moving the ball up and down the field. In the last two games the OFF has 0tds. The DEF was non-existent LW @SEA. But also in the losing streak, the usually reliable NYJ DEF hasn’t made the necessary stops to get the opposing OFF off the field. The QB situation is a big question mark even if NYJ Robert Saleh says that they are behind QB Zach Wilson 100%. He is clearly not the answer. MIA has had their struggles this season as they have been very streaky. Plus, the health of Tua Tagovailoa is a big question as he has suffered two concussions this season. The DEF for MIA has a lot of questions as well. They disappear at times. Also, the run game has not been utilized as much to take pressure off of whoever is the QB. The RBs in MIA can get the job done when called on, they just need to know that they are in the game plan. The O-LINE also needs to be addressed. This SUN, MIA will be looking to see if the swelling in Teddy Bridgewater’s finger has gone done. If not, Sklyer Thompson will be in there and recently signed Mike Glennon will back him up. I like MIA here as NYJ have cashed out and MIA still has something to play for and will get the W in this game. These two teams played in wk 5 @NYJ and the first play for scrimmage, Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game by NYJ. There is a revenge factor here for MIA and I like their chances.
THE PICK: MIA-1
Carolina Panthers (6-10), (8-8) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ NO Saints (7-9), (6-10) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (3-5) ATS CAR+4 ½
LW, NO was a DOG+6 ½ @PHILLY. I liked PHILLY on the bounceback but PHILLY QB Gardner Minshew showed everyone why he is a backup. NO stopped the PHILLY run game and Minshew threw a PICK6 that sealed the game for NO. The NO DEF played tough and PHILLY was playing catchup all game. NO was up 13-0 at the half and stuffed the PHILLY OFF. The run game for NO shredded the PHILLY DEF for 130yds, 1td on 35 carries. NO QBs were sacked 7x. NO held on and won 20-10. LW, CAR blew a game they should have won. Their secondary got burned very badly by TB WR Mike Evans who caught 10passes for 207yds & 3tds. He couldn’t be stopped and CAR didn’t make any adjustments to stop him. Brady shredded the CAR DEF like they weren’t there. CAR was up in this game 14-0 then they made some mistakes that put TB back into this game. Miscues by CAR QB Sam Darnold and no DEF helped CAR go down in flames, 30-24. CAR was actually up 21-10 in the 4th qtr but felt they played enough and let TB score 20straight pts before hitting a dummy fg with :59 left. The DEF for CAR was the culprit in this one and the OFF which went totally conservative helped lose the game. L15 NO(H) vs CAR, NO 9-6 SU but, 6-9 ATS. L31 NO vs CAR, NO 17-14 SU & 13-18 ATS. NO 3-0 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. NO 3-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NO 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. NO 14-6 ATS L20 off SU DOG win. NO 9-10 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 4-8 ATS off SU DOG win vs div opp. NO 10-0 ATS w/revenge off SU DOG win. CAR 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CAR 0-4 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CAR 0-4 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. CAR 0-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. CAR 10-11 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 6-15 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR 10-3 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 9-2 ATS as a DOG >3pts vs opp off SU DOG win. Given the way the season unfolded for CAR, they had some nice wins and some games that got away from them. LW, this was a game that got away from them. They should have beat TB but their PASS DEF couldn’t stop Evans. That has been a problem for CAR all season. The DEF for CAR has a lot of holes. Their run game really stepped up with a nice 1-2 punch that if they stay healthy will be tough to stop. CAR needs some more receivers and the QB situation is still a big question mark. Plus, who will be the HC also needs a big answer. NO has a good team on paper but their problem is that they don’t always show up for the game. They have currently won three in a row to make their season look respectable but there are questions to be answered for the long haul next season. Who will be the starting QB? NO was 4-9 before their current 3game winning streak and they were all but an afterthought in the NFC SOUTH. They played well LW @PHILLY even though it was against a backup QB. But, Dalton shredded a PASS DEF that is usually a shut down DEF. Going into this game, NO would like to go out with a 4game winning streak. Plus, they can play payback for the wk 3 loss @ CAR. That game was played with Jameis Winston as QB and he was awful. Dalton has been showing that he is decent and can work with guys around him. I would lay the points here as NO should win by a td, nothing more. The CAR DEF is going to get shredded again.
THE PICK: NO-4 ½
Cleveland Browns (7-9), (10-6) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8), (9-7) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS CLEV+2 ½
LW, I liked PITT+3 @BALT. As I said these games are always a battle and they are rarely blowouts. It was a struggle for each team and even when BALT was up 13-6, I didn’t give up hope. The PITT DEF was tough and only gave up 1td while in the 4th qtr PITT battled back. They kicked a fg that made the score BALT 13-9 and then they got the ball late. PITT made the most of it as PITT QB Kenny Pickett went 5/6 passing and led the drive which resulted in the winning td. His 10yd pass to RB Najee Harris was a thing of beauty. Pickett led Harris perfectly and threw the ball only where Harris could get it. Pickett has shown great maturity this season and the team has rallied around him nicely. It was a great win. LW, CLEV+2 ½ was @WASH. I thought that even with WASH QB Carson Wentz, WASH would win, I thought wrong. WASH was leading 7-3 at the half but CLEV seemed to have made adjustments at halftime. WASH did not. Wentz threw 3INTs and the WASH DEF couldn’t make stops when they needed them and CLEV won 24-10. CLEV went run heavy with 146yds rushing, on 30 carries. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was only 9/18 for 169yds but with 3tds & 0turnovers. He was sacked 5x. But Watson made the most of his opportunities and the WASH DEF, which has played well for most of the season couldn’t stop CLEV. L15 PITT(H) vs CLEV PITT 15-0 SU & 9-5-1 ATS. L31 PITT vs CLEV, DOG 16-14-1 ATS. CLEV 8-18-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. CLEV 0-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CLEV 1-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. 13-11 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEV 6-4 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm vs div opp. CLEV 5-16 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 2-10 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win. CLEV 6-19 ATS off DD SU win. CLEV 2-5 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEV 1-11-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-13-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 4-17 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEV 0-9 ATS as a DOG off DD SU win vs >.333 opp. PITT 4-0 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. PITT 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PITT 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. Pickett really showed something in that winning drive vs BALT. He didn’t get nervous and he threw a pass that was in a spot that only he and Harris knew. It was pass that was threaded and right on. PITT still has a lot to play for and CLEV could play spoiler here because they have nothing to lose. Watson hasn’t been consistent for CLEV since returning and their only convincing victory was vs BALT. However, in that game, BALT QB Lamar Jackson was out. Also LW, Wentz gave them the game. Over the course of the season, the PITT DEF has gotten better. PITT #14 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF & #20 PASS DEF. In the last six games, PITT has not given up more than 17pts. Considering that PITT has something to play for here, I would lay the points as PITT should win by at least a td. But the DEF for PITT can’t take CLEVE for granted and let them think that they can go up and down the field. PITT must create turnovers here and score pts off them.
THE PICK: PITT-2 ½
Sunday January 8th, 2023 4:00pm
LA Chargers (10-6), (8-7-1) ATS (5-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (4-12), (7-9) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS DEN+3 ½
LW, I knew DEN+13 ½ @KC was going to be a great bet. Formula-HC fired, players play better 1st game after, sometimes even getting a win. DEN could have won the game @KC and were leading 17-13 in the 4th qtr but getting a win here would be asking a lot. I knew DEN would at least keep it close, unless they totally gave up in the 4th qtr. Fortunately, DEN didn’t and KC played their usual toying game and won by only 3pts, 27-24. DEN had their chances in this game and had the ball late for what could have been a miraculous winning drive but, it wasn’t meant to be. DEN QB Russell Wilson played a better game than he has played this season but he had 1INT & 1 lost fumble that KC converted into 7pts. LW, LAC were @HOME-6 ½ vs LAC. I thought that since LAR had won big the previous week that this game would be close. I felt that LAC would win but not by greater than the spread. The game was actually LAC 17-10 at the half and LAR had a chance to keep it close. But LAC just started to get going and they spread the ball around nicely while the LAC DEF stopped LAR from finding the endzone or even attempting a fg. The DEF for LAC is looking good too and no one will want to play them come the playoffs. The running game for LAC rushed for 192yds, 2tds on 31 carries while QB Justin Herbert was 21/28 for 212yds, 2 tds & 0turnovers. LAC Chase Daniel also saw action going 3/3 and 27yds. Herbert & Daniel spread the ball around to 9different receivers. Neither QB for LAC was sacked. LAC added 2tds in the 2nd half to win 31-10. L15 DEN(H) vs LAC, DEN 9-6 SU but 5-9-1 ATS. L25 DEN vs LAC, 13-11-1 ATS. L31 DEN vs LAC, ROAD 18-11-2 ATS L15 DEN vs LAC, DEN 8-6-1 ATS. L29 DEN vs LAC, FAV 13-14-2 ATS. DEN 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. DEN 18-11 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. DEN 3-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DEN 3-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. DEN 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. DEN 14-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 6-0 ATS L6 after KC. LAC 2-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. LAC 11-10-2 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. LAC 1-0 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LAC 2-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. LAC 1-9-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge. LAC has a chance to move up in playoff seeding if they win this game. Considering that LAC is getting most of their previously injured players back and healthy in time to make a run, it is perfect timing for LAC. Herbert has plenty of weapons to go to and the running game is getting stronger also just at the right time. As for DEN, they have a lot of questions and holes to fill in the off-season. Is Wilson done? What HC will work with him going forward knowing Wilson’s guaranteed money? Does the O-LINE need adjustments? In any event I like LAC laying the points here because I knew LW that DEN would give its all @KC after HC Hackett was cut loose. We had flashes of the old Wilson in the game but it wasn’t enough. Some guys age faster than others and Wilson has looked pretty old for most of the season. The DEN DEF has played tremendously this season considering the circumstances but they seem to get way too many penalties that continue other teams drives and led to points. These two teams met in wk 6 on MNF @LAC and that game went to OT with LAC winning, 19-16. In that game, LAC went pass heavy and the run game went nowhere. Now the run game is healthy and Herbert doesn’t have the burden of winning the game by himself. Plus, his receivers are healthy LAC should win by at least a td here.
THE PICK: LAC-3 ½
NY Giants (9-6-1), (12-4) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), (7-8-1) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (5-2-1) ATS NYG+14
LW, NYG had a nice win @HOME vs INDY. INDY was playing with QB Nick Foles who in his latest comeback to the NFL has been a disaster. He got knocked out of the game by NYG. NYG had something BIG to play for and they weren’t going to be denied. NYG QB Daniel Jones probably had his best day as a PRO with 2tds throwing and 2tds rushing. He had 0turnovers and rushed for 91yds, 2tds on 11carries. This game was NYG 24-3 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. NYG won the game 38-10. INDY couldn’t stop the NYG run game either as NYG rushed for 217yds, 2tds on 37 carries in the win. LW, PHILLY QB Gardner Minshew tried to bounce back from his bad performance @DAL. NO came out blazing and the PHILLY DEF looked beatable. PHILLY was lucky that they were still in this game in the 2nd half but Minshew threw a PICK6 that basically ended any come back by PHILLY. The run game didn’t look good for PHILLY and Minshew was predictable just hitting 4receivers with passes. PHILLY lost 20-10 but right now is barely holding the #1 seed in the NFC. L15 PHILLY(H) vs NYG, PHILLY 11-4 SU but 6-8-1 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs NYG, DOG 19-11-1 ATS. NYG 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYG 1-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. NYG 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. NYG 14-11 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 14-4 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 15-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 24-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 24-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 24-6 ATS as a DOG 5>pts off an SU win. NYG 8-0 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts off DD SU win. PHILLY 8-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 1-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. PHILLY 0-3 ATS @HOME in JAN. PHILLY 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PHILLY 7-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off DD SU win. PHILLY 1-6 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is probably not going to play in this game but PHILLY would like to win this game to keep the #1 NFC playoff seed. This is a revenge game for NYG because in wk 14 @NYG, PHILLY slammed NYG 48-22. The score doesn’t represent how much of a blowout it really was. Are the NYG going to win this game? Probably not but, you can’t escape the 14pts that NYG is getting in this game. NYG certainly want to be fresh and ready for the wild card weekend in the playoffs. PHILLY will look to play but at least win. We all know about the PHILLY high powered OFF but w/o Hurts, it’s just ordinary. The DEF didn’t look good last week vs NO and that may be of a concern to the coaches. This game will be closer than the pt spread. Minshew will showcase his skills again this weekend but will make some mistakes that the NYG will capitalize on. I don’t think NYG would feel confident going into the playoffs off another blowout. If this game is close like I think it will be & NYG lose by less than 7pts, NYG will have that confidence going forward. It’s all about momentum in the NFL. NYG HC Brian Daboll has done a better job than anyone could have expected with this team and they are a few players away from really having a deep run in the playoffs. Take NYG with the pts here.
THE PICK: NYG+14
Arizona Cardinals (4-12), (8-8) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (11-4), (10-6) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (6-2) ATS ARZ+13 ½
LW, I liked ARZ+5 ½ @ATL. ATL is not some big powerhouse and I couldn’t believe that they were that big of a FAV. ARZ played tough even with David Blough as their starting QB. ARZ is on their 4th this season but I felt ARZ had a good shot at keeping it close or even winning. This game went back and forth and had ARZ leading 19-17 but ATL kicked a fg with :00 left to win 20-19. Blough didn’t play too badly and ARZ rushed for 126yds on 27 carries. LW, SF almost had a scare. SF was a ROAD FAV-5 ½ and then it moved to -10 when it was announce that Derek Carr would not be starting @QB for LV. SF probably thought they had a cakewalk. What they got was a revved up LV team that had new life with QB Jared Stidham. SF was @LV and SF needed this game to keep pace in the NFC playoff positioning. But no one told LV. LV gave them a game and it went to OT. This was a game that went back and forth and LV marched down the length of the field very late in the 4th qtr against the #1 DEF and scored a td to tie up the score at 34-34. In OT, Stidham threw an INT that was almost returned for a td but SF kicked a fg to win 37-34. L15 SF(H) vs ARZ, SF 8-7 SU & 5-9-1 ATS. L27 SF vs ARZ, SF 14-13 SU & 13-14 ATS. L15 ARZ vs SF, DOG 9-6 ATS. L13 ARZ vs SF, ROAD 10-3 ATS. SF 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. SF 2-0 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SF 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. SF 6-1 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts vs opp w/rev off SU loss. 2-11 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp w/revenge. SF 2-8 ATS @HOME off SU win vs .<500opp. SF 11-21 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF 4-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. ARZ 9-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ARZ 2-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. ARZ 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. ARZ 0-2 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SF needs to get back on track and will play lights out in this game trying to get a higher seeding. There is still a possibility that they can get the #1 seed. They have been playing very well since their bye, going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS. This team will be very dangerous in the playoffs will all the weapons they have on OFF and on DEF. ARZ has so many questions that need to be answered and QB Kyler Murray will not be ready for the start of the season. Who even knows if ARZ HC Kliff Kingsbury will be the HC? Kliff has certainly made his assortment of suspect play calling throughout the season. ARZ QB Blough will be starting again this week but he will be up against a SF team that is looking for playoff seeding and looking to correct a few things from the almost near loss @LV. I can guarantee that this week, SF makes these corrections & adjustments and ARZ will barely see the endzone in this game. This game has the makings of a blowout and I would lay the points here. I would be shocked if SF comes out lame with playoff seeding still on the line. A side note to this game is that it will be the NFL game for ARZ DE JJ Watt who has been one of the best at his position and will be in the Hall of Fame in 5years. By the way, these two teams met in wk 11 in Mexico. It was listed as an ARZ HOME gm. SF slammed ARZ 38-10. There isn’t any revenge factor in this game because ARZ is too over matched by SF. ARZ has checked out and SF has something BIG to play for. Take SF and lay the points here.
THE PICK: SF-13 ½
LA Rams (5-11), (5-10-1) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (1-5-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (8-8), (7-9) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS LAR+6 ½
LW, SEA was @HOME vs NYJ. The SEA DEF actually showed up to this game. NYJ were still in the playoff race but so was SEA. Well, SEA took control of this game with a run game that NYJ couldn’t stop. SEA rushed for 198yds on 38 carries. QB Geno Smith dropped in passes going 18/29, 183 yds, 2tds and 0turnovers. SEA was up 17-6 at the half and went on to win 23-6. The SEA DEF intercepted NYJ QB Mike White 2x and recovered one of his fumbles. SEA turned two his turnovers into 2fgs. LW, LAR @LAC was really a home game for both. LAC was battling for a playoff spot and LAR was just playing out the season. But after LAR beat DEN so bad the week before, I thought they may have a chance to keep this one close. I didn’t think LAR would win but just keep it close. Well, LAC was on all cylinders and beat LAR 31-10. The score was LAC 17-10 at the half and I thought in the 2nd half LAR could hang around. LAR did nothing offensively or defensively in the 2nd half except try to play catchup. LAC ran successfully vs the LAR DEF and LAC QB Justin Herbert dropped in 2tds passing while committing 0turnovers. LAC rushed for 192yds, 2tds on 31 carries. L15 SEA(H) vs LAR, SEA 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS. L27 SEA vs LAR, HOME 18-9 ATS. L31 SEA vs LAR, LAR 13-18 SU & 15-16 ATS. L14 LAR vs SEA, LAR 10-3 ATS. SEA 11-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SEA 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. SEA 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. SEA 1-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SEA 4-6 ATS as a div HOME FAV <10pts. SEA 10-6 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. LAR 6-14-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAR 1-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. LAR 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. LAR 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LAR 0-9-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 8-14 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 9-8-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. LAR 6-4 ATS w/div revenge. LAR LB Bobby Wagner formerly of the “Legion of Boom” said this week that SEA basically hung him out to dry. So I think there will be a little vengeance in his game and the rest of the LAR DEF this weekend. It’s been a BIG disappointment for LAR this season but SEA has shown some promise with the resurgence of QB Geno Smith. He has put together a nice season in leading this team. However, the DEF for SEA has many holes that need to be addressed in the off season if SEA is to be able to get back to the playoffs any time soon. As for LAR, QB Baker Mayfield needs to have a good showing here because that is what teams will remember going into the off season. The fact that he was able to resurrect his career out of the dumpster is something but, at the end of the day, he is a gunslinger. He certainly will not be with LAR as a backup in 2023. These two teams met in wk 14 @LAR and SEA barely won 27-23. In that game SEA needed a td with :36 left to win the game. This game will be tighter than the spread suggests because LAR would like to knock SEA out of any playoff conversation. SEA is still alive in the playoff hunt but some other teams need to lose in order for them to get in. I like LAR in a possible upset, unless LAR get sloppy from the beginning and dig themselves a big hole. Take LAR & the pts here.
THE PICK: LAR+6 ½
Dallas Cowboys (12-4), (10-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-8-1), (8-8) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (4-4) ATS WASH+6
LW on TNF, DAL was a ROAD FAV-10 @TENN. DAL QB Dak Prescott made it interesting by throwing 2INTS and losing a fumble. DAL was only up 17-13 in the 4th qtr but pulled ahead for the 27-13 win. It was a win but it wasn’t convincing. TENN was without RB Derrick Henry and TENN still managed to make this game close for three qtrs. LW, WASH was still in the playoff hunt but WASH HC decided to start Carson Wentz @QB instead of Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke was the one that got them to the verge of the playoffs. Anyway, Wentz threw 3INTs that should never have been thrown and he turned a WASH 7-3 lead into a CLEV 24-10 win. The WASH DEF couldn’t make stops and couldn’t stop CLEV QB Deshaun Watson from throwing td passes. He threw three. WASH has a lot to build on and they just need a few players to round out the edges and they will certainly be in the thick of things in 2023. L15 WASH(H) vs DAL, WASH 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, 14-13 ATS. L27 WASH vs DAL, DOG 14-12 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L17 WASH vs DAL, ROAD 10-7 ATS. DAL 2-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. DAL 19-11-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 15-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 2-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DAL 2-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DAL 1-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. DAL 27-7-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 3-11 ATS as a conf FAV off an SU non-conf win. DAL 7-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU loss. DAL 20-9 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 5-7-1 ATS off SU win vs <.500 div opp w/revenge. DAL 10-1 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. WASH 2-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. WASH 17-16 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. WASH 8-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. WASH 2-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. WASH 0-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. WASH 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. WASH 11-9 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 3-13 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 4-11 ATS off BB Su losses vs non-div opps. WASH 10-15 ATS off BB Su losses. WASH 3-13 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 11-11 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 9-3 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 8-2 ATS w/revenge vs >.500 div opp off DD SU win. WASH has stated that they will be starting rookie Sam Howell @QB this SUN vs DAL. Wentz will be inactive with Taylor Heinicke backing Howell up. Howell has not taken a snap in a game this season. Welcome to the NFL kid. DAL is still playing for seeding and could get a higher seeding if PHILLY loses and MINN & SF lose. DAL has to play lights out and then wait and see. But if they lose, it will not matter. WASH had their chances but WASH HC Ron Rivera gambled with QB Carson Wentz and lost. The WASH DEF also couldn’t stop CLEV last week and are probably going to play not to get hurt since they are officially out of the playoff picture. They have some good players for 2023. As for DAL they need to stay focused and strong for this game. Since they are well rested, I see DAL playing their A-game getting ready for the playoffs. Lay the points here and take DAL.
THE PICK: DAL-6
Sunday January 8th, 2023 8:20pm
Detroit Lions (8-8), (11-5) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ GB Packers (8-8), (8-7-1) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (4-4) ATS DET+4 ½
LW, GB@HOME -3 vs MINN was a slaughter by GB. I had that game picked very early in the week because GB Aaron Rodgers was getting payback for wk 1 @MINN. This was my BEST BET of the WEEK on TWITTER & my big pick on the “Rick Kamla Show” on the Bettor Sports Network. Sometimes you just know what is going to happen. The GB DEF and special teams were the stars of this game for GB. GB had a kickoff return for td by Keisean Nixon for 105yds & the GB DEF had a PICK6 of MINN QB Kirk Cousins that made the score GB, 14-3 in the 1st qtr. Cousins had 3INTs & 1lost fumble that were turned into 28pts. GB QB Aaron Rodgers wa 15/24 for 159yds & 1td. The run game for GB was the start on OFF as they rushed for 163yds, 2tds on 33carries. It was 41-3 in the 4th qtr before MINN scored 2dummy tds to make the final score 41-17. LW, DET@HOME -5 ½ took it to CHI who had nothing to play for. The DET OFF was the star here as they rushed for 265yds, 2tds on 39 carries. The DET DEF also gave up 200 yds rushing but mostly to CHI QB Justin Fields who rushed for 132yds on 10carries. DET QB Jared Goff was near perfect throwing 21/29 for 255yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. This game was DET 24-10 at the half and DET was not going to be denied. The DET DEF stopped CHI cold in the 2nd half forcing CHI to punt 5x and having them turn the ball over on downs. DET won easily 41-10. The DET DEF also sacked Fields 7x. L15 GB(H) vs DET, GB 12-3 SU & 7-7-1 ATS. L31 GB vs DET, GB 21-10 SU & 14-16-1 ATS. L22 DET vs GB, HOME 13-8-1 ATS. L21 DET vs GB, FAV 11-9-1 ATS. DET 0-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DET 3-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. DET 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DET 0-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp DET 6-14 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 2-12 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .333>opp. DET 5-13 ATS after div HOME gm. DET 8-10-1 ATS after CHI. DET 4-12 ATS as a DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 2-8 ATS as a div DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 8-8 ATS as a DOG vs opp off DD SU win. GB 13-6-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. GB 3-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 3-7 ATS as a FAV 4>pts after scoring 40>pts. GB 30-11-1 ATS after a div gm. GB 22-7 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 17-3 ATS as a FAV <8pts after div gm. GB 10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SUATS win. GB 12-5-2 ATS off SU div HOME win. GB 12-10-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs div opp. GB 11-0 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU win. 8-0 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. This is another payback game for GB & Rodgers. These two teams met in wk 9 @DET. GB was a ROAD FAV-3 ½. Rodgers had one of his worst games of the season with 3INTS and probably his worst game of his career. Two of his INTs were picked off in the endzone. Also, the GB OFF couldn’t get in sync was looking out of it all game, while the DET DEF was looking great with the stops and the INTs. From that game on, it was a turnaround for DET. Since that time GB has gone with more of a run game and less of a passing game. The DEFs for both teams are widely different and DET’s DEF woes need to be addressed in the off-season. DET #32 TOT DEF w/#30 PASS DEF & #29 RUSH DEF. While GB #18 TOT DEF w/#4 PASS DEF & #26 RUSH DEF has steadily improved and came on like gangbusters LW vs MINN. The PASS DEF has been the difference in games for GB in their quest to turn around their season. Both of these teams are fighting for the playoffs but, this is just another one of those games that Rodgers can’t wait to play as it is another revenge game just standing in the way of GB and the playoffs. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: GB-4 ½