2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 4
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 4 (ATS
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday September 29th, 2022 8:15pm
Miami Dolphins (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, MIA really showed something in beating MIA. I liked MIA because this was a statement game for MIA but, the season is long and anything can happen. The game could have gone either way because BUFF QB Josh Allen bounced a pass on 4th & 2 from the MIA 2yd when a receiver was open. BUFF would have taken the lead very late in the game. Then MIA committed the butt punt for a safety and the score was MIA 21-19. BUFF got the ball back but ran out of time trying to get set up for a fg. MIA’s OFF seemed stagnant at times but they did just enough to win. BUFF was able to march up and down the field but could not score more than 2tds in the 2nd half. The MIA DEF gave up 497yds of total OFF. That is not good. Right now, MIA TOTAL DEF #31, ouch. Also, MIA needs to get their run OFF going so it will take some pressure off of their QB Tua Tagovailova. He can’t keep throwing long passes to WRs Jaylon Waddle & Tyreek Hill or can he? LW, CINNCY got back on track by beating NYJ 27-12. Yeah, so what. It seems every team gets a lift playing NYJ. It doesn’t prove anything for CINNCY. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has already been sacked 15x. That’s a lot. He’s needs more protection. The O-LINE vs NYJ gave up only 2 sacks down from 7 & 6, the first two weeks. The O-LINE for CINNCY better get on track fast or Burrow will not be able to get CINNCY on the win side. LW, CINNCY really didn’t have to do much because they were given 4 gifts by NYJ QB Joe Flacco who threw 2INTS & had 2 lost fumbles which CINNCY easily turned into 10pts. CINNCY is still in prove it mode because they looked awful vs PITT & DAL the first two weeks. L9 MIA vs CINNCY, MIA 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. MIA 9-9 ATS on TNF. MIA 5-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG on TNF. MIA 14-5 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RGs. MIA 34-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 35-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 10-6-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 0-7 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins vs 700>opps. MIA 15-8 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. MIA 6-1 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. MIA 4-5 ATS AWAY L9 vs AFC NORTH. CINNCY 8-6 ATS on TNF. CINNCY 4-0 ATS on TNF vs opp off SUATS win. CINNCY 22-35-3 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 20-30-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. This game is going to be tough. Neither team wants to give up much. On TNF, both teams will be under the microscope. MIA is trying to make a statement that they are for real and CINNCY is looking to get back on track. Right now, QB Tua Tagovailova is being examined to see if he did indeed incur a concussion during the game vs BUFF. If he did, QB Teddy Bridgewater is very capable of leading this team. I don’t see either team running away with it and the game could come down to a fg at the end. I like MIA here with points because I think CINNY will win by one or two points. Turnovers will loom large in this game.
MIA INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
TE Adam Shaheen (Knee) Out, CB Trill Williams (Knee (ACL)) Out, QB Tua Tagovailoa (Back/Ankle) Questionable, S Jevon Holland (Neck) Probable, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Ribs/Toe) Questionable, WR Jaylen Waddle (Groin) Questionable, CB Byron Jones (Achilles) Out, CB Xavien Howard (Groin) Questionable, CB Kader Kohou (Ankle) Questionable, S Brandon Jones (Chest) Questionable, S Clayton Fejedelem (Undisclosed) Out, FB John Lovett (Knee) Out, LB Calvin Munson (Undisclosed) Out, OL Robert Hunt (Shin) Questionable, OT Terron Armstead (Toe) Questionable, OL Austin Jackson (Ankle) Out, OT Greg Little (Finger) Probable, TE Cethan Carter (Head) Questionable, TE Hunter Long (Ankle) Questionable, DT Zach Sieler (Hand) Questionable, DT Raekwon Davis (Knee) Questionable.
CINNCY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB Eli Apple (Ankle) Probable, S Tycen Anderson (Hamstring) Out, RB Joe Mixon (Ankle) Probable, CB Cam Taylor-Britt (Abdomen) Out, RB Elijah Holyfield (Knee) Out, S Brandon Wilson (Knee (ACL)) Out, LS Clark Harris (Biceps) Out, LB Joe Bachie (Knee) Out, LB Germaine Pratt (Knee) Probable, C Ben Brown (Bicep) Out, OT La'el Collins (Back) Questionable, OT Isaiah Prince (Elbow) Out, TE Mitchell Wilcox (Ankle) Probable, WR Tee Higgins (Toe) Probable, TE Hayden Hurst (Groin) Probable, TE Drew Sample (Knee) Out, DE Khalid Kareem (Hamstring) Out, DT DJ Reader (Knee) Out.
THE PICK: MIA+3 ½
Sunday October 2nd, 2022 9:30am
Minnesota Vikings (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ NO Saints (1-2), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS (London, England) NO+2 ½
Will the real MINN team please stand up? So far, there is no consistency with this team. Week 1 @HOME, they blow out GB. Week 2 @PHILLY, MINN gets blown out. Week 3 @HOME, they have to play catchup vs DET and win but don’t cover. Plus, no sacks in week 3. In my mind, MINN is still trying to find themselves on both sides of the line. MINN QB Kirk Cousins needs a sound run game around him to take the pressure off of him. He’s like Matt Ryan, Reactive, not proactive. MINN won in comeback fashion @HOME vs DET, 28-24. However, Cousins needs to calm down and let his guys make plays. Also, let the DEF do their job. NO is just really bad. If it wasn’t for the 1pt win @ ATL in week 1 in a game which NO definitely should have lost, they would be 0-3. NO QB Jameis Winston has not played well and his stats for last week are all garbage time. CAR was 13-0 in the 4th qtr before NO finally found the endzone to make the game interesting and it was 22-7 before NO scored a dummy td to make it a 22-14 final. Winston has 4tds and 5INTS which this season is starting to look like his last season in TB where he had 30INTS. Winston has already been sacked 11x which was the total number of times he was sacked in 2021 but for 7games. Right now NO is going backwards and they are playing catchup in every game. You lose something when you play catchup every game. L9 NO vs MINN, NO 5-4 SU & 4-4-1 ATS. NO 7-9-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NO 30-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 32-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 7-4 ATS L11 as a HOME DOG. NO 16-6 ATS L22 vs NFC NORTH. NO 13-7-1 ATS after SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. NO 14-3 ATS vs 666>conf opp. NO 9-2 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs non-div conf opp. NO 16-2 ATS as a DOG vs .666>opp. MINN 17-7 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 30-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 35-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 9-8 ATS before CHI. MINN 12-3 ATS off SU DIV win vs .600< non-div opp. MINN 6-3 ATS 1NL after DET. NO is not going to get on track right away because Winston needs to play better and not give the game away early. MINN is trying to keep pace with GB so they will be pumped for this game. MINN is the FAV literally at a neutral site but a HOME game technically for NO. This should be a winner for MINN. I would be shocked here if NO wins. I like MINN to get their running game going and take out NO early. NO will then do the catchup but to no avail and fall short. Lay the points here.
MINN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
RB Alexander Mattison (Non Injury Related) N/A, RB Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) Questionable, WR Blake Proehl (ACL) Out, S Harrison Smith (Concussion) Questionable, CB Andrew Booth Jr. (Quad) Questionable, LB Ryan Connelly (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Kenny Willekes (Undisclosed) Out, WR Bisi Johnson (Knee (ACL)) Out, WR Thomas Hennigan (Undisclosed) Out.
NO INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
TE Dylan Soehner (Undisclosed) Out, LB Isaiah Pryor (Undisclosed) Out, WR Jarvis Landry (Ankle) Questionable, S Marcus Maye (Rib) Questionable, TE Taysom Hill (Rib) Questionable, WR Tre'Quan Smith (Concussion) Questionable, WR Michael Thomas (Foot) Questionable, WR Kawaan Baker (Suspended) Out, CB Alontae Taylor (Knee) Out, S Smoke Monday (Knee (ACL)) Out, LB D'Marco Jackson (Undisclosed) Out, OT Trevor Penning (Foot) Out, OT Ethan Greenidge (Knee) Out, G Andrus Peat (Concussion) Questionable, G Forrest Lamp (Undisclosed) Out, DT Albert Huggins (Leg) Out, DL Malcolm Roach (Undisclosed) Out.
THE PICK: MINN-2 ½
Sunday October 2nd, 2022 1:00pm
Cleveland Browns (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2), (3-0) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS ATL+1 ½
LW on TNF, CLEV @HOME did what they had to do vs PITT for a 29-17 win. CLEV rushed for a combined 171 yds and QB Jacoby Brissett managed his game going 21/31, 220yds, 2tds, 0INTS & 0fumbles. CLEV was down at halftime but, did enough vs PITT and their inept OFF to win. CLEV WR Amari Cooper has been a nice addition to this team as he gives a very good target for whoever is the QB. LW, ATL was @SEA and this was seesaw game. It could have easily gone for SEA as ATL QB Marcus Mariota got too cute late in the game and fumbled the ball away. Had ATL scored a td, it would have put the game away for ATL. Had ATL scored a fg ATL would have been up by 7pts and made it difficult for SEA to tie. But with SEA putting together a drive, SEA QB Geno Smith overthrew a SEA receiver and it was picked off by ATL to narrowly escape with a win. ATL All-Everything WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be a spark for ATL rushing for 141yds, 1td on only 17 carries. He certainly keeps DEFS on their toes. L4 ATL vs CLEV, CLEV 3-1 SUATS. ATL 8-9 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. ATL 27-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 35-33 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 8-9 ATS before TB. ATL 11-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 9-5 ATS as a DOG off SU DOG win. ATL 9-6 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU DOG win. CLEV 3-7-1 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 17-26-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEv 13-8-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CLEV 14-19-1 ATS L34 vs NFC. CLEV 6-16 ATS off DD SU win. This game could be a shootout if Mariota gets going. He looked good last week vs SEA but almost gave the game away with that late lost fumble. The ATL DEF had to bail him out. He can’t get too fancy, he needs to just stick to what the DEF is giving him. He is doing a competent job in ATL. CLEVE is playing better with just that one setback vs NYJ. CLEV # 1 RUSH OFF vs ATL # 15 RUSH DEF. This will take a lot of pressure off of CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett as CLEVE should just use RBs Kareem Hunt & Nick Chubb to run the ball all day. Sprinkle in a few passes and CLEVE should walk away with a nice win here.
CLEV INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Isaiah Weston (Knee) Out, QB Deshaun Watson (Suspension) Out, LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Quad) Out, WR Jakeem Grant Sr. (Achilles) Out, CB Greedy Williams (Hamstring) Out, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Groin) Questionable, S Ronnie Harrison Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable, G Dawson Deaton (ACL) Out, C Nick Harris (Knee) Out, LB Chris Odom (Knee (ACL)) Out, OT Elijah Nkansah (Undisclosed) Out, DE Chase Winovich (Hamstring) Out, OT Jedrick Wills Jr. (Ankle) Questionable, TE Jesse James (Biceps) Out, DE Jadeveon Clowney (Ankle) Questionable, DE Stephen Weatherly (Knee) Out, DE Myles Garrett (Personal) Questionable, DT Taven Bryan (Hamstring) Questionable.
ATL INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
LS Beau Brinkley (Achilles) Out, RB Damien Williams (Ribs) Out, WR Calvin Ridley (Suspended) Out, CB Isaiah Oliver (Knee) Out, ILB Deion Jones (Shoulder) Out, OT Elijah Wilkinson (Non Injury Related (Personal)) Questionable, OL Tyler Vrabel (Undisclosed) Out, OL Jalen Mayfield (Back) Out, TE John FitzPatrick (Undisclosed) Out, DL Marlon Davidson (Knee) Out, DT Vincent Taylor (Achilles) Out.
THE PICK: CLEV-1 ½
Washington Commanders (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS WASH+3
LW, PHILLY played with WASH @WASH. WASH didn’t get on the board until late in the 4th qtr when it had already been PHILLY 24-0. Final score PHILLY 24-8. WASH QB Carson Wentz was sacked 9x. How many times will he be sacked this week @DAL? WASH has only one bright spot this season, a comeback win @HOME week 1 vs JAGS. In that game they were trailing 22-14 in the 4th qtr and found a way to score 2tds to win 28-22. WASH HC Ron Rivera is terrible and this team could possibly end up with a worse record than last season. There is virtually no run game for WASH because they are playing catchup in all their games. So it’s all on Wentz’s shoulders. On MNF, DAL was @NYG. DAL was trailing 13-6 early in the 3rd qtr but I liked DAL because NYG are fakers and playing beyond their talent. DAL tied it up and took the lead and won 23-16. DAL DEF sacked NYG QB Daniel Jones 5x. The DAL DEF picked its spots and did the job but did let Jones run around. DAL QB Cooper Rush managed a nice game and the running game got going for 176 combined yds. This took pressure off of Rush and kept the NYG DEF guessing. Plus, the NYG DEF didn’t sack Rush 1x. L15 DAL(H) vs WASH, DAL 1-5 SU but 5-10 ATS. L20 DAL vs WASH, DAL 11-9 ATS. L16 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 10-6 ATS. L26 DAL vs WASH, DOG 14-11 ATS 1PICK’EM. WASH 27-37 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 22-21 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. WASH 32-45 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 2-8 ATS L!0 after PHILLY. WASH 10-2 ATS AWAY vs .666>div opp. WASH 3-14 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 10-14 ATS off BB SU losses. DAL 34-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 43-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 19-24 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. DAL 4-9 ATS after NYG. DAL 13-2 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. DAL 26-7-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 8-17 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 7-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU loss. DAL 19-8 ATS as a DIV FAV >2pts. DAL 9-3 ATS off SU DOG win vs <600 opp. DAL 5-7-1 ATS off SU win vs <.500 div opp w/revenge. DAL 13-3 ATS off SU win vs 333<opp. DAL 10-1 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL has a tendency to let up in games and not put the metal to the petal. They need to do that in this game because it a winnable game vs a weaker opponent. WASH is going nowhere and the schedule doesn’t get any easier for DAL after this game. This has the makings of a blowout because the DAL DEF is too tough for a team that has no O-LINE. DAL #9 TOT DEF w/#4 PASS DEF. The key for DAL is to put pressure on Wentz and he will make mistakes, costly mistakes. DAL needs to have a balanced attack on OFF like vs NYG and they will win easily. Lay the points here.
WASH INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB William Jackson III (Back) Questionable, RB Brian Robinson (Leg) Out, CB Benjamin St-Juste (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Milo Eifler (Ankle) Questionable, LB David Mayo (Ankle) Questionable, G Willie Beavers (Undisclosed) Out, C Tyler Larsen (Achilles) Out, G Wes Schweitzer (Concussion) Questionable, OT Charles Leno Jr. (Shoulder) Questionable, C Chase Roullier (Knee) Out, G Nolan Laufenberg (Undisclosed) Out, OT Sam Cosmi (Knee) Questionable, OT Saahdiq Charles (Shoulder) Questionable, TE Curtis Hodges (Thigh) Out, DE Daniel Wise (Ankle) Questionable, DE Casey Toohill (Concussion) Questionable, DE James Smith-Williams (Abdomen) Questionable, DT Phidarian Mathis (Torn Meniscus) Out, DE Chase Young (Knee (ACL)) Out.
DAL INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
TE Ian Bunting (Neck) Out, QB Dak Prescott (Thumb) Out, WR Michael Gallup (Knee (ACL)) Probable, S Jayron Kearse (Knee) Questionable, LB Damone Clark (Neck) Out, LB Devante Bond (Knee) Out, LB Luke Gifford (Hamstring) Probable, G Connor McGovern (Ankle) Questionable, OT Tyron Smith (Knee) Out, WR Simi Fehoko (Shoulder) Probable, WR James Washington (Foot) Out, TE Dalton Schultz (Knee) Questionable, DE DeMarcus Lawrence (Foot) Questionable, DE Tarell Basham (Thigh) Out.
THE PICK: DAL-3
Seattle Seahawks (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (1-2), (3-0) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (2-0) ATS SEA+6 ½
LW, ATL @ SEA was a showdown. Not really in the positive way because neither of these two teams will be in the playoffs this year but, it was an exciting game that came down to the wire. I liked ATL in this game because of the SEA QB Geno Smith factor and he didn’t disappoint at the end of he game. Plus, the SEA TOT DEF #25 can’t stop any team from moving up and down the field unless the other team commits an unforced error. ATL QB Marcus Mariota committed a fumble without being touched late in the 4th qtr. Then it looked like Smith would lead SEA to a nice victory at the end of the game but, he threw a ball that was over his receiver and was picked off by ATL, game over. This game could have gone either way but bad teams find a way to lose. LW, DET overplayed their hand. DET was up 14-0 early @MIIN then 24-14 in the 4th qtr and lost 28-24. DET HC Dan Campbell said it was his fault to call the 54yd fg try that put the ball back in the hands of MINN with great field position. DET should have punted. No one has a crystal ball. Well, MINN went 3plays and scored the go ahead td to win. In the game, DET RB D’Andre Swift hurt his shoulder and is week to week. DET QB Jared Goff had a pretty good game but threw an INT at the end of the game that sealed the win for MINN. DET made MINN play catchup but the DET DEF couldn’t stop anyone on MINN. L6 DET vs SEA, SEA, 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS. HOME team 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS. DET 23-36 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 16-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 20-31-1 ATS L52 (H) vs non-div. DET 3-14 ATS L17 after MINN. DET 13-7 ATS vs .333<opp. DET 12-4 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. SEA 8-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SEA 30-37-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 28-33-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 3-7 SU & 3-5-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. SEA 18-4 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <600opp.SEA 13-2 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss vs <600opp. This is what concerns me for SEA. SEA can’t stop the run. SEA #30 RUSH DEF vs DET #4 RUSH OFF. DET #3 TOT OFF hasn’t turned into wins. WEEK 1 was garbage time for DET. Plus, even if DET RB Swift doesn’t play, RB Jamaal Williams is capable of handling the load. DET #28 DEF & DET #27 RUSH DEF, don’t be surprised if both teams are run heavy in this game with complementary passes on top of them. This game could be a shootout but, I like SEA getting the points. This is a bounceback for both teams but I don’t see a blowout by either team. I like DET to win the game but, not by more than 3points. This is going to be a closer game than the spread suggests unless one team starts committing turnovers that turn into gift points. By the way, SEA beat DET @SEA in 2021 in week 17, 51-29. I do not think this plays a factor in either team’s mindset for this game because both teams are just looking to get better and stay relevant. SEA is looking Smith to see if he can lead and the same with Goff.
SEA INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Cody Thompson (Shoulder) Out, WR Marquise Goodwin (Knee) Questionable, CB Tre Brown (Knee) Out, RB Travis Homer (Ribs) Out, CB Justin Coleman (Calf) Questionable, CB John Reid (Groin) Out, SS Jamal Adams (Quad) Out, FS Joey Blount (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Jon Rhattigan (Knee) Out, LS Tyler Ott (Shoulder) Out, DE L.J. Collier (Elbow) Out, LB Tyreke Smith (Hip) Out, DE Shelby Harris (Glute) Questionable, LB Alton Robinson (Knee (PCL)) Out.
DET INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR DJ Chark (Ankle) Questionable, WR Josh Reynolds (Ankle) Questionable, WR Jameson Williams (Torn ACL) Out, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) Questionable, K Austin Seibert (Right Groin) Questionable, S Tracy Walker III (Achilles) Out, CB Bobby Price (Shin) Questionable, RB D'Andre Swift (Ankle/Shoulder) Questionable, CB Jerry Jacobs (ACL) Out, FB Jason Cabinda (Knee) Out, LB Chris Board (Knee) Questionable, G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Back) Out, G Jonah Jackson (Finger) Questionable, C Frank Ragnow (Foot) Questionable, G Tommy Kraemer (Back) Out, DL John Cominsky (Wrist) Out, TE T.J. Hockenson (Foot) Questionable, DL Levi Onwuzurike (Back) Out, DL Josh Paschal (Sports Hernia) Out, DL Romeo Okwara (Achilles) Out.
THE PICK: SEA+6 ½
Tennessee Titans (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS TENN+3
LW, TENN held on for dear life. I said that the game @TENN vs LV was must win game for TENN and they won by a hair. Fortunately, they were playing vs LV QB Derek Carr who makes mistakes on his own. But the TENN DEF really can’t stop anyone. TENN #26 TOT DEF and sinking fast. On OFF, TENN QB Ryan Tannehill doesn’t look as comfortable as when he first came to TENN and is looking more like the guy who was struggling @MIA. Since the playoff loss, Tannehill hasn’t been the same. Also, the TENN O-LINE has not been opening up holes for RB Derrick Henry. He’s looked rather average and that puts extra pressure on Tannehill. LW, INDY had a nice win @HOME vs KC. I said it was a must win for INDY otherwise they would be looking at possibly an already lost season. Did the nice win @HOME vs KC turnaround INDY’s season? We will see. The running game for INDY is still average and INDY QB Matt Ryan has already been sacked 12x. He was sacked 5x vs KC. Last season, INDY’s O-LINE gave up a total of 32 sacks but Carson Wentz is more mobile than Ryan. Ryan needs to keep spreading the ball around as he did vs KC. He threw passes to nine different receivers which kept the KC DEF guessing. But in the end, KC did miss a fg and then QB Pat Mahomes threw an uncanny INT that sealed the game for INDY, 20-17. L15 INDY(H) vs TENN, INDY 10-5 SU & 7-7-1 ATS. TENN 7-14 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. TENN 33-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 26-18 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. TENN 32-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. TENN 6-13 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. TENN 4-12 ATS AWAY vs DIV OPP w/revenge. INDY 8-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 18-26-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 29-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 32-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 18-10 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY INDY 1-8 ATS as a FAV 11<pts in 2nd of BB HGs vs <500 opp. TENN hasn’t shown me anything so far that would lead me to believe that they can turn things around in a week. TENN has been terrible when they needed a score or when they needed to make a stop. INDY should have more confidence going into this game because they just beat good team. TENN barely beat a lousy team. TENN has won the last three games in a row vs INDY so there may be a small revenge factor playing for INDY HC Frank Reich to rally up the team. Neither team is lighting the league up right now but INDY is slightly better at executing. INDY should be able win this game by more than a fg if they don’t turn the ball over. TENN barely beat LV and that was @HOME. Lay the points here.
TENN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OLB Harold Landry III (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Da'Shawn Hand (Quad) Out, K Caleb Shudak (Leg) Out, WR Racey McMath (Hip) Out, WR Treylon Burks (Illness) Questionable, WR Kyle Philips (Shoulder) Questionable, RB Trenton Cannon (Knee) Out, CB Elijah Molden (Groin) Out, CB Kristian Fulton (Hamstring) Questionable, DB Ugo Amadi (Ankle) Questionable, S A.J. Moore (Ankle) Out, DB Chris Jackson (Undisclosed) Out, DB Amani Hooker (Concussion) Questionable, LB Zach Cunningham (Elbow) Questionable, LB Chance Campbell (Knee) Out, OLB Bud Dupree (Hip) Probable, LB Monty Rice (Achilles) Out, OL Jamarco Jones (Triceps) Out, OT Taylor Lewan (Knee) Out, TE Tommy Hudson (Undisclosed) Out, OLB Ola Adeniyi (Neck) Questionable.
INDY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
S Armani Watts (Ankle) Out, CB Stephon Gilmore (Hamstring) Questionable, P Rigoberto Sanchez (Achilles) Out, RB Jonathan Taylor (Toe) Questionable, S Julian Blackmon (Ankle) Questionable, S Trevor Denbow (Foot) Out, LB Shaquille Leonard (Back) Questionable, OT Carter O'Donnell (Undisclosed) Out, C Ryan Kelly (Knee) Questionable, OT Bernhard Raimann (Ankle) Questionable, TE Andrew Ogletree (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Yannick Ngakoue (Back) Questionable, DT DeForest Buckner (Elbow) Questionable.
THE PICK: INDY-3
Chicago Bears (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ NY Giants (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS CHI+3
LW, on MNF, NYG were leading 13-6 @HOME vs DAL in the 3rd qtr. But DAL went on to score three straight times and the final was DAL 23-16 with the end coming on an INT thrown by NYG QB Daniel Jones. The OFF for NYG seemed to stall after taking the lead and the DAL DEF seemed to step up. NYG RB Saquon Barkley had a nice game, rushing for 81 yds and catching 4passes for 45yds. He continues to be a double threat for NYG and take a lot of pressure off of Jones. Jones showed that he is not afraid to take off and run. Jones rushed for 79 yds which kept the DAL DEF on its toes. Jones did not turn the ball over on the ground which is a god sign even though he was sacked 5x. LW, CHI @HOME got away with one in beating HOU. The score was tied 20-20 and HOU QB Davis Mills threw an INT that was almost returned for a td by CHI LB Roquan Smith. CHI settled for a fg. But again, CHI is not showing trust in QB Justin Fields. Fields only threw 17x, completing 8 but throwing 2INTS. Also, he was sacked 5x. CHI hasn’t shown great confidence in Fields for his passing abilities. CHI rushed for a combined 281 yds and 2tds. CHI David Montgomery left with an injury but RB Khalil Herbert filled in nicely rushing for 157 yds and 2tds. L10 NYG vs CHI, NYG 4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS. L10 NYG vs CHI, ROAD 7-3 ATS. CHI 12-4 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CHI 35-26-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 31-27-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 7-11 ATS before MINN. CHI 0-10 ATS as a non-div RD <7pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 5-18 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 5-13 ATS L18 vs NFC EAST. CHI 0-10 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. NYG 11-5-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 28-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 34-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYG 8-2 ATS as a FAV off SU FAV loss. NYG 6-0 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss. NYG 9-0 ATS as a FAV <7pts vs NFC NORTH. NYG 3-9-1 ATS after DAL. NYG are coming off a loss and CHI is coming off a win, barely. Jones is a much better QB than Fields but that is not saying much. Jones still needs to keep proving himself. The DEF for both of these teams are decent NYG #16 TOT DEF, CHI #20 TOT DEF. They are not great but, are not bad. CHI will go run heavy so the NYG DEF can prepare for that because Fields has shown that he is shaky at throwing the ball. Jones has shown that he is not afraid to throw the ball. Also the OFF for NYG is more balanced whereas the CHI OFF is a predictable run OFF. NYG WR Sterling Shepard suffered a torn ACL in a non-contact injury and will be out the rest of the season. There also may be a revenge factor for some of the NYG players here as CHI destroyed NYG 29-3 in week 17 last season. Mike Glennon was the QB for NYG committing 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles that contributed heavily in the loss. It wasn’t much of a game and NYG should have a nice bounceback win here. Lay the points.
CHI INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OL Dakota Dozier (Leg/Knee) Out, WR N'Keal Harry (Ankle) Out, WR Velus Jones Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Byron Pringle (Calf) Out, DB Dane Cruikshank (Hamstring) Questionable, RB David Montgomery (Knee) Questionable, DB Jaylon Johnson (Quad) Questionable, LB Matthew Adams (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Roquan Smith (Quad) Questionable, OL Doug Kramer (Foot) Out, OL Alex Leatherwood (Undisclosed) Out, TE Ryan Griffin (Achilles) Questionable.
NYG INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB Rodarius Williams (Knee (ACL)) Out, WR Sterling Shepard (Knee) Out, WR Collin Johnson (Achilles) Out, WR Wan'Dale Robinson (Knee) Questionable, DB Cor'Dale Flott (Calf) Questionable, CB Aaron Robinson (Appendix) Questionable, CB Justin Layne (Concussion) Questionable, ILB Darrian Beavers (Knee (ACL)) Out, CB Nick McCloud (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Jihad Ward (Knee) Questionable, OL Marcus McKethan (Knee (ACL)) Out, C Nick Gates (Leg) Out, G Shane Lemieux (Foot) Out, OT Matt Peart (Knee (ACL)) Out, WR Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Elerson Smith (Leg) Out, DL Leonard Williams (Knee) Questionable.
THE PICK: NYG-3
Jacksonville Jags (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS JAGS+6 ½
LW, JAGS @LAC was no contest. It didn’t help that LAC QB Justin Herbert was really banged up from his game the week before @KC. JAGS were in total control of this game with leads of 16-7 at the half and 31-10 in the 3rd qtr. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence played a very good game going 28/39 262yds, 3TDs, 0INTs, no sacks allowed and 0fumbles. The running game for JAGS was a big help as they rushed for a combined 151 yds and 1td. LAC could not get their running game going and it was all on the arm of Herbert who should not have been there in the first place. JAGS did what they had to do and won easily 38-10. PHILLY should not take JAGS for granted. JAGS #7 TOT DEF w/ #1 RUSH DEF. However, JAGS need to step up their PASS DEF for this one as PHILLY has many targets to throw the ball to. LW, PHILLY @WASH, PHILLY coasted to a nice victory 24-8. PHILLY did all their scoring in the 2nd qtr and basically held ship until WASH got a dummy td with 1:55 in the game. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts was in total control with 3tds, 0INTs & 0fumbles. The DEF for PHILLY was also key as they sacked WASH QB Carson Wentz 9x. No, that’s not a misprint. The PHILLY DEF also forced a fumble of Wentz that turned into 7pts for PHILLY. But this week is not going to be a cakewalk with the surging JAGS and JAGS HC Doug Pederson across the field. L4 PHILLY vs JAGS, PHILLY 3-1 SUATS. PHILLY 33-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 41-37 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 21-13 ATS L34 vs non-conf opp. PHILLY 8-5 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 14-7 ATS vs .400>non-conf opp. PHILLY 1-9 ATS as a non-conf FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. PHILLY 2-13 ATS as a non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. PHILLY 0-6 ATS as a non-conf FAV <13pts off BB SUATS wins. PHILLY 1-8 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 1-6 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 8-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. JAGS 31-35 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 27-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 4-38 SU & 9-33 ATS vs NFC. JAGS 3-18 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 1-6 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs non-div opp. JAGS 2-15 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 2-14 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. 4-8 ATS L12 off SU DOG win. JAGS 3-5 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 2-10 ATS as a DOG 8<pts vs .700>opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 1-9 ATS as a RD <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. The underlining story here is JAGS HC Doug Pederson coming back to PHILLY after he was fired. He brought the city a SuperBowl victory and now he is coming back for a little revenge game. JAGS are playing better faster than I expected and even though PHILLY has things under control, however, you never know. Pederson did have QB Jalen Hurts under his wing for 2020 so he may have figured out his strengths and weaknesses. For JAGS to win this game, they cannot make any mistakes and must create some turnovers. JAGS have been known to get upsets so this is not out of reach. Pederson would love this game in his back pocket. He probably circled it when he saw the schedule. This should be a good game and closer than the spread suggests. Likening the JAGS here.
JAGS INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB Shaquill Griffin (Hip) Questionable, OL Cole Van Lanen (Hamstring) Questionable, DE Jordan Smith (Knee) Out.
PHILLY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB Darius Slay (Back) Questionable, WR DeVonta Smith (Back) Questionable, RB Miles Sanders (Hip) Questionable, RB Boston Scott (Rib) Questionable, OT Brett Toth (Knee) Out, G Landon Dickerson (Foot) Questionable, OT Andre Dillard (Forearm) Out, TE Tyree Jackson (Knee (ACL)) Out, DT Milton Williams (Knee) Questionable, DE Derek Barnett (Knee) Out.
THE PICK: JAGS +6 ½
NY Jets (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NYJ+3 ½
LW, NYJ @HOMW vs CINNCY looked awful. NYJ QB Joe Flacco went back to being awful with 2INTS, 2lost fumbles & was sacked 4x. The DEF didn’t stop CINNCY & QB Joe Burrow either and this wasn’t much of a game as NYJ lost 27-12. NYJ were playing catchup most of the day to no avail due to turnovers and ineptness. NYJ are going nowhere. They sacked Burrow 2x even though the O-LINE for CINNCY is playing substandard. Since NYJ were down from the start, Flacco passed the ball for 52x with 0tds. LW on TNF, PITT was ahead 14-13 at the half @CLEV but then played lame in the 2nd half with 4 punts and a fg. PITT needs to get their running game going to take the pressure off of QB Mitch Trubisky who has a case of the happy feet. He also needs to spread the ball around more to keep DEFs guessing. L8 PITT vs NYJ, 4-4 SUATS. L8 PITT vs NYJ, HOME 6-2 SUATS. NYJ 27-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 34-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 8-14 ATS L22 as a RD 4<pts. PITT 40-20-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 50-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 2-8 ATS as a FAV 2>pts w/rest. PITT 14-15-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 17-20 ATS L38 vs AFC EAST. PITT 14-5 ATS as a FAV after allowing 28>pts. PITT 19-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 16-7 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 1-5 ATS w/rest vs opp off SU loss. PITT 12-2 ATS off DD SU div loss vs non-div opp. PITT 11-2 ATS off DD SU div loss. PITT 8-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 17-2 ATS as a FAV >3pts off DD SU div loss. NYJ HC Robert Saleh is not getting his message across. If it wasn’t for their miraculous comeback @CLEV in week 2 this team would be 0-3 and sinking fast. PITT has had a lot of time after their loss @CLEV on TNF so they should be ready. PITT QB Mitch Trubisky should know that his days are numbered and needs to play better by spreading out the OFF. Can Kenny Pickett be far behind? Also, HC Mike Tomlin is a much better coach than Saleh and knows that he needs to spread out his OFF. NYJ consistently look lost and out of place on DEF. With the return of Zach Wilson at QB, he certainly will be rusty and mistakes will be a coming. The PITT DEF should take advantage of that and should have a nice bounceback win after losing @CLEV. Lay the points here as the HOME crowd will be a rocking.
NYJ INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OT Greg Senat (Undisclosed) Out, OT Mekhi Becton (Kneecap) Out, QB Zach Wilson (Meniscus) Questionable, FB Nick Bawden (Undisclosed) Out, LB Quincy Williams (Ankle) Doubtful, OT Duane Brown (Shoulder) Out, OT George Fant (Knee) Out, DL Vinny Curry (Hamstring) Out.
PITT INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
RB Jeremy McNichols (Shoulder) Out, DB Carlins Platel (Undisclosed) Out, WR Anthony Miller (Shoulder) Out, WR Calvin Austin III (Foot) Out, S Damontae Kazee (Wrist/Arm) Out, CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Hamstring) Questionable, S Karl Joseph (Ankle/Foot) Out, S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Concussion) Questionable, LB Hamilcar Rashed Jr. (Undisclosed) Out, LB T.J. Watt (Pectoral) Out.
THE PICK: PITT-3 ½
Buffalo Bills (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS BALT+3
LW, BUFF made some mistakes at the end of the game while piling up 497 total yds @MIA. Unfortunately, BUFF lost the game 21-19. But, it was very close and MIA held on by a hair. Maybe it’s a good thing for BUFF because they can go back and correct anything that needs to be corrected. Had BUFF QB Josh Allen not bounced a 4th & 2 pass late in the game, BUFF probably walks away with a win. But Allen is a student of the game and is only getting better. He is always looking to fine tune his game. Give a lot of credit to BUFF HC Sean McDermott who has the team focused from week to week. LW, BALT was in a dogfight @NE. But, with 3 straight turnovers by NE in the 2nd half they gave the game to BALT. Turnovers are the gift that keeps on giving. Two of the NE turnovers BALT turned into 10pts which NE couldn’t overcome. BALT QB Lamar Jackson had a nice game with 218yds passing, 4tds, 1INTS and 107 yds rushing with 1td. BALT rushed for a combined 188yds. But, I doubt he racks up those numbers vs a very stingy BUFF DEF that is coming off a loss. L8 BUFF vs BALT, BALT 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. L8 BALT vs BUFF, HOME 6-2 ATS. BALT 6-8-1 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB HGs. BALT 63 ATS L9 as a HOME DOG. BALT 24-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. BALT 26-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. BALT 12-26-1 ATS @HOME L39 off non-div gm. BALT 10-1 ATS as a non-div DOG. BUFF 11-13 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 13-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BUFF 25-36-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 31-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 1-8-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 0-11 ATS off SU FAV loss vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF needs to get their run game going vs BALT so that they can exploit the BALT secondary. If BUFF shows run, the BALT secondary has a habit of letting up. This is where BUFF can be at their most dangerous. As for Jackson, if he wants to run, that’s fine. BUFF #1 TOT DEF, w/#2 RUSH & #2 PASS DEF. BUFF will be looking to contain Jackson and make him feel uncomfortable. This is a bounceback game for BUFF and they want to get back on track. BALT will have a tough time on both sides of the ball. BUFF should win this game by a td and get back on the winning ways. Even though BUFF has some injuries on DEF they showed last week that they are very capable of slowing down some of the best receivers in the league. This should be a good game but, I like BUFF to get a nice win.
BUFF INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Marquez Stevenson (Foot) Out, LB Andre Smith (Suspended) Out, WR Gabe Davis (Ankle) Questionable, WR Stefon Diggs (Lower Body) Questionable, WR Jake Kumerow (Ankle) Questionable, S Jordan Poyer (Foot) Questionable, S Micah Hyde (Neck) Out, CB Tre'Davious White (ACL) Out, CB Dane Jackson (Neck) Questionable, CB Cam Lewis (Forearm) Questionable, CB Christian Benford (Hand) Out, C Mitch Morse (Elbow) Questionable OL Justin Murray (Foot) Questionable, G Ike Boettger (Achilles) Out, OL Ryan Bates (Concussion) Questionable, OT Tommy Doyle (Knee (ACL)) Out, OT Dion Dawkins (Illness) Questionable, OT Spencer Brown (Illness) Questionable, TE Dawson Knox N/A Questionable, DT Ed Oliver (Ankle/Foot) Questionable, DT Jordan Phillips (Hamstring) Questionable.
BALT INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR James Proche II (Groin) Probable, CB Kyle Fuller (Knee) Out, RB J.K. Dobbins (Chest) Questionable, RB Gus Edwards (ACL) Out, OLB Vince Biegel (Achilles) Out, OLB Justin Houston (Groin) Questionable, ILB Josh Ross (Foot) Out, OLB Tyus Bowser (Achilles) Out, DT Michael Pierce (Arm) Out, OLB Steven Means (Ankle) Out, C Patrick Mekari (Ankle) Questionable, OT Ja'Wuan James (Achilles) Out, OT Ronnie Stanley (Ankle) Probable, WR Slade Bolden (Undisclosed) Out, TE Charlie Kolar (Sports Hernia) Out, OLB David Ojabo (Achilles) Out.
THE PICK: BUFF-3
LA Chargers (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (0-2-1), (3-0) ATS, (0-0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS HOU+5
LW, HOU was playing toe-to-tie @CHI. Considering CHI rushed for a combined 281yds, it’s a wonder that HOU didn’t lose by more points. But late in the 4th qtr with the score tied at 20-20, HOU QB Davis Mills threw an INT that LB Raquon Smith almost ran back for a td. Mills made the tackle and CHI kicked a fg to win 23-20. HOU has played tough in each of their 3gms and Mills has persevered with a bunch of rag tag guys. Plus, the DEF has played tough even if the numbers don’t show it. HOU HC Lovie Smith knows a thing or two about DEF and it is somewhat showing . LW, LAC @HOME was manhandled by JAGS 38-10. This game was never a game and LAC QB Justin Herbert was obviously still suffering the after effects of his injury from the KC game. The whole LAC OFF never got started and JAGS took advantage of a LAC DEF that also went to sleep. LAC suffered some big injuries in that game and the promise for LAC having a good season are looking slimmer and slimmer. L7 HOU vs LAC, LAC 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. HOU 11-12 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. HOU 18-21-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 17-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 11-8 ATS before JAGS. HOU 2-10 ATS L12 @HOME vs AFC WEST. LAC 8-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAC 30-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 32-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 28-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LAC 8-0 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. LAC 10-9-2 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 4-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 11-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. HOU needs a win in the worst way. They have played tough in all their games which is why they are 3-0 ATS. LAC is like the walking wounded and certain playmakers that Herbert relies on are injured. HOU has been known for an upset now and then. These two teams met in week 16 in HOU in 2021 with HOU being a heavy HOME DOG @+9 ½. HOU won the game outright 41-29. Mills had a nice game but Herbert threw a PICK6 late in the game that sealed the win for HOU. Could history repeat itself? HOU has nothing to lose while all the pressure is on LAC & Herbert. LAC could be taking this game for granted. I have this strong feeling that HOU will be in this game until the end and then lose by a fg.
LAC INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Keenan Allen (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Jalen Guyton (Knee (ACL)) Out CB J.C. Jackson (Ankle) Questionable, TE Stone Smartt (Undisclosed) Out, LB Damon Lloyd (Undisclosed) Out, C Isaac Weaver (Undisclosed) Out, OT Andrew Trainer (Undisclosed) Out, C Corey Linsley (Knee) Questionable, OT Rashawn Slater (Biceps) Out, TE Donald Parham Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable, DL Forrest Merrill (Undisclosed) Out, OLB Joey Bosa (Groin) Doubtful.
HOU INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
DB Tavierre Thomas (Quadriceps) Out, WR John Metchie III (Illness) Out, TE Brevin Jordan (Ankle) Questionable, DB Isaac Yiadom (Thigh) Questionable, RB Darius Anderson (Knee) Out, LB Christian Harris (Hamstring) Out, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Groin) Out, OL Justin Britt (Personal) Out, OL Austin Deculus (Knee) Questionable, TE Teagan Quitoriano (Knee) Out, DL Kurt Hinish (Foot) Questionable, DE Derek Rivers (Bicep) Out, DE Mario Addison (Thigh) Out.
THE PICK: HOU+5
Sunday October 2nd, 2022 4:00pm
Arizona Cardinals (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ARZ+1 ½
LW, CAR @HOME beat up NO. CAR played out to a nice lead and NO just played catchup all day. CAR QB Baker Mayfield had a so-so game for himself but with 0turnovers.The running game for CAR did most of the damage with 145 combined rushing yards. Mayfield was sacked 3x but fortunately did not cough up the ball. He was able to sprinkle his 12 completed passes to eight different receivers which kept the NO DEF guessing. Also, NO made plenty of mistakes to help CAR’s cause. LW ARZ @HOME couldn’t find the endzone and had to settle for 4fgs vs LAR. ARZ couldn’t get their run gm going and it was all on ARZ QB Kyler Murray’s arm. But ARZ had drives that stalled and that was the difference in this game as LAR really wasn’t that convincing in the game but, it was that ARZ couldn’t get their game going. ARZ hasn’t really been that impressive in that they have been playing catchup in all three games. The DEF doesn’t have DE Chandler Jones out there for pressure and it shows. L12 CAR vs ARZ, CAR 10-2 SU & 9-1-2 ATS incl CAR(H) vs ARZ, CAR 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS. CAR 8-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CAR 20-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CAR 24-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 10-1 ATS off DD ATS win. CAR 22-30-2 ATS L54 as a FAV 4pts or less. CAR 10-4 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 15-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp CAR 2-13 ATS as a HF >1pt vs .500<opp. CAR 6-0 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. ARZ 23-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 37-41 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 8-4 ATS after LAR. ARZ 17-8 ATS as a DOG vs <500opp. ARZ 5-0 ATS as a DOG vs 333<opp. CAR needs to put a string of wins together to turn their season around. So far it’s been disappointing. The same could be said for ARZ but they look more like they are very confused out there and Murray doesn’t look like he’s sticking to the game plan. CAR should get the win here as ARZ is still sorting things out. Look for CAR to go run heavy to take pressure off of Mayfield. Then Mayfield should be able to pick the ARZ DEF apart. ARZ #30 PASS DEF. This should be a good game with CAR winning by a fg.
ARZ INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OL Joshua Miles (Undisclosed) Out, WR Rondale Moore (Hamstring) Questionable, K Matt Prater (Hip) Questionable, RB James Conner (Knee) Questionable, WR DeAndre Hopkins (Suspended) Out, QB Colt McCoy (Arm) Out, WR Antoine Wesley (Hip) Out, WR A.J. Green (Knee) Doubtful, ILB Zaven Collins (Shoulder) Questionable, S Charles Washington (Chest) Out, CB Antonio Hamilton (Foot) Out, ILB Ezekiel Turner (Ankle) Questionable, S Tae Daley (Undisclosed) Out, OL Rodney Hudson (Knee) Questionable, OL Justin Pugh (Elbow) Questionable, OL Cody Ford (Ankle) Out, OL Marquis Hayes (Knee) Out, WR Greg Dortch (Back) Questionable, DT Rashard Lawrence (Hand) Out, DE J.J. Watt (Calf) Questionable.
CAR INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
K Zane Gonzalez (Groin) Out, CB Jaycee Horn (Calf) Questionable, QB Matt Corral (Ankle/Foot) Out, QB Sam Darnold (Ankle) Out, WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Andre Roberts (Knee) Out, RB Christian McCaffrey (Thigh) Doubtful, CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver III (Achilles) Questionable, S Xavier Woods (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Julian Stanford (Undisclosed) Out, T EIan Thomas (Ankle) Questionable, DT Bravvion Roy (Hamstring) Out.
THE PICK: CAR-1 ½
NE Patriots (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ GB Packers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS NE+9 ½
LW was bad for NE on two accounts. First, they lost the game @HOME to BALT, 37-26. This is a game they could have won, had it not been for all the turnovers including 3INTS from QB Mac Jones. The NE did sack BALT QB Lamar Jackson 4x but gave up 4tds and 188 combined rushing yds. Mistakes by NE did cost them a win. Second, QB Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain and he will be out a number of weeks. Don’t kid yourself. A high ankle sprain is worse than a regular ankle sprain and is much more painful. NE hasn’t determined anything yet but I am pretty sure Jones will not play @GB. As for GB, they were @TB and it was a defensive struggle with some turnovers thrown in for good measure. GB stormed out to 14-3 lead and it looked like GB would be up 21-3 when GB Aaron Jones fumbled near the TB endzone and it was recovered by TB. I liked GB in this game and they were getting points despite the fact that TB had a number of receivers out for this game. The GB DEF held TB to 34yds rushing. Facing TB QB Tom Brady is no easy task but the GB DEF held TB to 1td. GB needs to keep doing that and let the opposing team make their own mistakes. L4 NE vs GB, NE 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. NE 24-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 37-22-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 21-12 ATS L33 as a DOG. NE 27-16-2 ATS as a RD since 2003. NE 12-1 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. Bellichick 28-14 ATS as a RD in OCT. NE 14-9-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 8-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NE 29-15-2 ATS after an SU loss. NE 10-1 ATS off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. GB 8-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 37-31-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 26-15-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 19-21-1 ATS L41 vs AFC. GB 3-8 ATS @HOME aft scoring 14<pts vs non-div opp. GB 6-7 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 11-9-1 TAS off BB SUATS wins. GB 8-3 ATS after scoring 14<pts. Once GB gets on track, there is no stopping them. There are only speed bumps. As long a GB uses the rushing game effectively and keeps opposing defenses guessing, GB & QB Aaron Rodgers will be in command in the game. NE doesn’t scare me but, I thought they would keep it close LW vs BALT. However, they beat themselves and lost the game with too many mistakes. This week, GB @HOME will just dismantle NE. Brian Hoyer is a backup QB for a reason and does not have the accuracy of Mac Jones. GB should win by 2tds.
NE INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Kristian Wilkerson (Concussion) Out, K Quinn Nordin (Undisclosed) Out, CB Jalen Mills (Hamstring) Questionable, QB Mac Jones (Ankle) Doubtful, WR Tyquan Thornton (Collarbone) Out, WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) Out, WR Jakobi Meyers (Knee) Questionable, DB Adrian Phillips (Ribs) Questionable, DB Kyle Dugger (Knee) Questionable, S Joshuah Bledsoe (Groin) Questionable, CB Joejuan Williams (Shoulder) Out, LB Raekwon McMillan (Thumb) Questionable, LB Ronnie Perkins (Undisclosed) Out, OL Andrew Stueber (Hamstring) Out, OL Yodny Cajuste (Thumb) Questionable, DT Davon Godchaux (Back) Questionable, DL Lawrence Guy (Shoulder) Questionable.
GB INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Christian Watson (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Sammy Watkins (Hamstring) Out, WR Allen Lazard (Ankle) Questionable, CB Jaire Alexander (Groin) Questionable, RB AJ Dillon (Knee) Questionable, RB Kylin Hill (Knee) Out, LB Krys Barnes (Ankle) Out, LB Jonathan Garvin (Hip) Questionable, OT David Bakhtiari (Knee) Questionable, OT Caleb Jones (Illness) Questionable, G Elgton Jenkins (Knee) Questionable, TE Marcedes Lewis (Groin) Questionable.
At the moment, I am counting on Brian Hoyer being the starting as the starting QB for NE because of the high ankle sprain to NE QB Mac Jones. If the situation changes, the betting line will be adjusted accordingly.
THE PICK: GB-9 ½
Denver Broncos (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ LV Raiders (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS DEN+2 ½
Why is LV consistently a FAV? LV QB Derek Carr has happy feet and he proved it LW. TENN played not to lose after they stormed out to a 24-10 halftime lead @HOME vs LV. With absolutely no scoring from TENN in the 2nd half, LV managed two lowly fgs until the last 2minutes of the game where they finally scored a td with 1:14 left. The score was TENN 24-22 and LV needed a 2pt conversion to send the game to OT. Carr’s pass for the 2pt conversion went incomplete and the game was essentially over. Carr had a pass in the endzone that was INT’d by TENN in the 4th qtr that could have made a difference because TENN didn’t turn it into pts. LW on SNF, SF @DEN was nothing but a slopfest. Mistakes on both sides whether it was missed opportunities (by DEN) & turnovers (by SF) had people watching this until the end to see who would come out of it as the winner. DEN stole it away with a td that led to a 11-10 win. DEN converted 3x on 3rd down and for one series DEN QB Russell Wilson looked like the SEA QB of old. This was the only OFF highlight of DEN’s evening. Defensively, DEN sacked SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo 4x. L15 LV(H) vs DEN, LV 8-7 SUATS. L30 DEN vs LV, ROAD 16-14 ATS. L22 DEN vs LV 11-11 ATS. LV 26-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 21-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 20-26 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 8-3 ATS before TNF. DEN 26-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 27-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 21-19 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 15-14-1 ATS L30 DIV ROAD gms. DEN 14-10 ATS L24 off SU DOG win. DEN 10-3 ATS AWAY vs <250opp. DEN 12-2 ATS off SUATS win vs <.500opp off BB SU losses. DEN 12-4 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses. DEN 0-6 ATS off SU DOG win vs .250<div opp. DEN’s DEF has been playing well. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF will have LV scratching their heads. How will the LV O-LINE stop DE Randy Gregory & Bradley Chubb? They won’t and Carr will be eating turf and making costly mistakes. DEN has a great opportunity to put together a nice OFF game plan because LV has shown that they cannot stop anyone. The clock is ticking on LV HC Josh McDaniels because even with all the talent they have on paper, LV is going backwards. LV has nice OFF numbers, in two of the first three games LV has been playing catchup. That gets old real fast. In the other game, they blew a 20-0 lead. That shows no discipline by the players. Take DEN here.
DEN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OLB Randy Gregory (Knee) Questionable, S P.J. Locke (Ankle) Questionable, CB Michael Ojemudia (Elbow) Out, WR Tyrie Cleveland (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Darius Phillips (Hamstring) Questionable, CB K'Waun Williams (Wrist) Questionable, RB Melvin Gordon III (Neck) Questionable, RB Damarea Crockett (ACL) Out, S Caden Sterns (Hip) Questionable, S Justin Simmons (Quad) Out, OLB Christopher Allen (Foot) Out, OLB Jonathon Cooper (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Baron Browning (Knee) Questionable, OL Billy Turner (Knee) Questionable, G Dalton Risner (Ankle) Questionable, OL Tom Compton (Back) Out, OL Quinn Meinerz (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring) Out, WR Tim Patrick (ACL) Out, OLB Aaron Patrick (Shoulder) Questionable, DT D.J. Jones (Head) Questionable, DL Mike Purcell (Neck) Questionable.
LV INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
DE Jordan Jenkins (Knee) Out, RB Sincere McCormick (Undisclosed) Out, WR Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) Questionable, WR Dillon Stoner (Undisclosed) Out, WR DJ Turner (Ankle) Out, S Tre'Von Moehrig (Hip) Questionable, CB Rock Ya-Sin (Knee) Questionable, CB Anthony Averett (Thumb) Out, CB Nate Hobbs (Concussion) Questionable, LB Micah Kiser (Knee) Out, LB Denzel Perryman (Ankle) Questionable, C Andre James (Head) Probable, OT Kolton Miller (Ankle) Questionable, OT Brandon Parker (Triceps) Out, TE Foster Moreau (Knee) Questionable, DT Bilal Nichols (Shoulder) Questionable, DT Neil Farrell Jr. (Shoulder) Probable, DE Clelin Ferrell N/AN/A.
THE PICK: DEN+2 ½
Sunday October 2nd, 2022 8:20pm
KC Chiefs (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS TB+2
LW, KC was @INDY facing a team that was in a must win situation. INDY was desperate for a win and that is the kind of team you don’t want to play. I liked INDY big @HOME+6 ½ because of that factor. Well, INDY didn’t disappoint and KC lost 20-17. The KC running game did not get going vs an INDY team that was motivated to win. KC had a measly 58 combined rushing yds incl 26yds by Mahomes. KC#22 RUSH OFF. KC is showing more and more that they will rely on QB Pat Mahomes’s throwing arm instead of a balanced attack. KC had a chance to tie the game with a fg but Mahomes threw a pass intended for WR JUJU Smith-Schuster that was intercepted by INDY with :02 left in the game. Usually, KC comes through in these situations but unfortunately it wasn’t to be. The KC DEF did put pressure on INDY QB Matt Ryan by sacking him 5x. But Ryan connected on the td pass that put INDY up late to stay. LW, GB @TB was supposed to be a showcase of two of the greatest QBs. But, it turned out to be a defensive struggle and not a shootout. TB was w/o WRs Mike Evans & Julio Jones just to name a few, so QB Tom Brady needed to get others involved and rather quickly. Brady spread the ball around to eight different receivers but couldn’t get into the endzone until the end of the game. On a 2pt conversion that would have tied the game at 14, the pass went incomplete and GB won 14-12. Newly acquired TB WR Cole Beasley caught three passes for 12 yds and should be a bigger part of the OFF going further even if others can’t stay off the injured list. L5 TB vs KC, TB 4-1 SUATS incl TB(H) vs KC, TB 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. KC 20-18-1 ATS L39 as a ROAD FAV. KC 11-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. KC 23-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 28-29-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 15-9 ATS L24 after an SU loss. TB 9-8-2 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. TB 8-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TB 24-36-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 20-29-4 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 5-0 ATS as a non-div HD vs opp w/revenge. TB 9-3-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU FAV loss. TB 7-6-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 4-7-1 ATS before ATL. TB 4-3-1 ATS as a non-div DOG >1pt off SU FAV loss. TB 9-0 ATS as a non-div HD vs <1.000opp w/revenge. In five meetings, including playoffs, between Brady vs Mahomes, Brady 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. There are two factors in this game that are working heavily in TB’s favor. 1. Brady takes it personal when he is the DOG. He is out to prove people wrong even at this stage of his career. 2. This is a bounceback game for TB and they play @HOME. Brady is very good at not losing two straight. Plus, TB will be getting back WR Mike Evans and maybe even WR Julio Jones. KC’s problem is that they are still figuring out their receivers and the running game is not as effective as it should be. TB #4 TOT DEF w/#5 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF. This will be a battle but I like TB & Brady coming out at the end with a win.
KC INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Justyn Ross (Foot) Out, K Harrison Butker (Ankle) Questionable, CB Trent McDuffie (Hamstring) Out, LB Willie Gay (Suspended) Out, DE Mike Danna (Calf) Questionable, DE Frank Clark (Illness) N/A, OT Lucas Niang (Kneecap) Out, TE Blake Bell (Hip) Out.
TB INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
WR Julio Jones (Knee) Questionable, WR Chris Godwin (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Breshad Perriman (Knee) Questionable, RB Giovani Bernard (Ankle) Out, CB Zyon McCollum (Gameday Inactive) Questionable, RB Kenjon Barner (Groin) Out, OLB Cam Gill (Foot) Out, G Aaron Stinnie (Knee (ACL) (MCL)) Out, C Ryan Jensen (Knee) Out, OT Josh Wells (Calf) Out, OT Donovan Smith (Elbow) Questionable, TE Cade Otton (Personal) Questionable, DL Akiem Hicks (Foot) Questionable.
THE PICK: TB+2
Monday October 3rd, 2022 8:15pm
LA Rams (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ SF 49ers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LAR+2 ½
LW on SNF, SF @DEN, SF looked atrocious. Late in the game with SF leading 10-5 in a sloppy game for both teams, DEN QB Russell Wilson found himself and led a late 4th qtr drive that resulted in a td and a 11-10 win. After SF took and early 7-0 lead in this game, SF couldn’t do anything right punted 6x, fumbled 2x, committed a safety and kicked a a fg. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked uncomfortable as the QB as he was sacked 4x, step on the back line in the endzone for a safety and lost a fumble. SF looked lost when this is a game they should have and could have won. LW, LAR @ARZ was a game that could have gone either way. LAR held ARZ to 4fgs when it looked as though ARZ may make the game a little closer. I thought LAR would win but closer than the spread of LAR-4. LAR DEF stopped the ARZ run game which put the game on the shoulders of ARZ QB Kyler Murray. Murray threw the ball 58x as ARZ was playing catchup all day. The DEF for LAR held when they needed it most and LAR won 2012. LAR QB Matthew Stafford had a respectable day with 0turnovers and LAR walked away with the win. L15 SF(H) vs LAR, SF 10-4-1 SU & 9-6 ATS. L6 SF vs LAR, SF 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. L10 SF vs LAR, DOG 7-3 ATS. L30 SF vs LAR, SF 21-8-1 SU & 18-12 ATS. L20 LAR vs SF, SF 13-7 ATS. LAR 6-12-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAR 6-8 ATS on MNF. LAR 7-2 ATS on MNF vs div opp. LAR 33-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 22-23 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. LAR 31-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 26-21-1 ATS L48 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 7-3 ATS L10 after ARZ. LAR 1-6 ATS as a div RD <10pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. LAR 8-22 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. LAR 3-7 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. SF 14-4 ATS on MNF. SF 19-9 ATS as a FAV on MNF. SF 9-2 ATS on MNF vs 333>opp. SF 24-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SF 42-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 30-36 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 9-11-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 14-1 ATS off SU ROAD FAV loss. SF 6-1 ATS on MNF vs div. Jimmy G will bounce back because he is also showcasing himself for when Trey Lance comes back. Jimmy G feels that he can lead a team if not the SF next season. But Jimmy G did not get the usual training camp experience because SF was shopping him around. However, he will get situated because he has played LAR before and beaten them. This is a little revenge game for SF after LAR beat them in the NFC Championship game last season en route to the SuperBowl. For at least one night, SF should get their revenge but SF needs to get back to basics if they want to turn this season into a winning one. Lay the points here.
LAR INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
CB Troy Hill (Groin) Out, DB Jordan Fuller (Groin) Questionable, CB Derion Kendrick (Head) Questionable, WR Van Jefferson (Knee) Out, DB Decobie Durant (Hamstring) Questionable, DB David Long Jr. (Groin) Questionable, RB Kyren Williams (Ankle) Out, ILB Travin Howard (Groin) Out, S Quentin Lake (Knee) Out, OLB Daniel Hardy (Ankle) Out, C Brian Allen (Knee) Questionable, G Logan Bruss (Knee (ACL)) Out, OT Tremayne Anchrum Jr. (Leg) Out, TE Brycen Hopkins (Suspension) Out, DT Bobby Brown III (Suspended) Out.
SF INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
DB Jimmie Ward (Hamstring) Out, CB Jason Verrett (Knee (ACL)) Out, QB Trey Lance (Ankle) Out, RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee (MCL)) Out, RB Tyrion Davis-Price (Ankle) Out, LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Knee) Out, DL Kemoko Turay (Non Injury Related (Personal)) Questionable, LB Curtis Robinson (Ankle) Out, OL Daniel Brunskill (Hamstring) Questionable, OT Trent Williams (Ankle) Out, DL Jordan Willis (Knee) Out, TE Tyler Kroft (Knee) Out, TE Jordan Matthews (Leg/Knee) Out, DL Arik Armstead N/A Questionable, DL Kalia Davis (Undisclosed) Out, DL Maurice Hurst (Bicep) Out.
THE PICK: SF-2 ½
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