2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 6 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Byes: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, LV Raiders & Houston Texans

Thursday October 13^th, 2022 8:15pm

Washington Commanders (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (2-3), (1-3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS           WASH+1

LW, WASH was trailing @HOME vs TENN, 21-17. WASH QB Carson Wentz was moving the ball nicely for what seemed to be a late scoring drive that would win the game for WASH. Wentz then threw a pass that had no chance of being caught by the WASH receiver who was double covered. It was intercepted by TENN and the game was essentially over. This game was a seesaw battle and I was expecting Wentz to make a costly mistake that would give TENN the edge. He came through at the worst time for WASH and the best time for TENN. The final score was TENN 21-17. LW @MINN, CHI was down 21-3 but made a nice comeback to take the lead 22-21. CHI QB Justin Fields looked confident in bringing CHI back and a lead on the road @MINN. However, it was short lived as MINN scored a td and MINN then stripped a CHI receiver of the ball for a turnover to secure the 29-22 win. Although it was a loss, Fields played better in this game than he has all season and gave the MINN team a definite scare. MINN had 2 missed fgs and an INT that led to 6 CHI points and this game could have certainly been put to sleep by MINN if they didn’t have the errors. But CHI didn’t give up and they fought back until the end. L8 WASH vs CHI, WASH 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS incl @CHI where WASH is 4-0 SUATS. WASH 2-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. WASH 4-6 ATS L10 on TNF. WASH 2-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. WASH 32-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 27-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 10-16 ATS off BB SU losses. CHI 6-10 ATS on TNF. CHI 3-8 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 2-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. CHI 23-36-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 13-27 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 9-3 ATS after MINN. CHI 6-18 ATS as a conf HF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 3-12 ATS as a non-div conf HF vs opp off SU loss. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast. WASH’s only win was in a comeback win @HOME in wk 1 vs JAGS. Otherwise WASH hasn’t looked good at all. CHI won in wk 1 @HOME vs SF and won in week 3 @HOME vs HOU. WASH HC Ron Rivera has, in so many words said, that he has no confidence in his QB. Well, he’s not the only one. Wentz has good numbers on paper but doesn’t make good decisions. Ron hasn’t exactly been a stellar HC in his day either due to all the suspect calls he has made as a HC. CHI has reliable RBs in David Montgomery & Khalil Herbert. CHI needs to use both of these guys so that the pressure can be taken off of Fields. Fields can then sprinkle in his passes and CHI will have a well balanced attack. This game may not have too many people watching but I have more confidence in the QB-RBS for CHI then I do for WASH. CHI should win this game unless they get turnoveritous and give the game to WASH.    

WASH INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Jahan Dotson (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Dyami Brown (Groin) Questionable, CB William Jackson III (Back) Probable, QB Carson Wentz (Shoulder) Questionable, CB Christian Holmes (Hamstring) Questionable, S Percy Butler (Quad) Questionable, RB Jonathan Williams (Knee) Questionable, LB Milo Eifler (Hamstring) Out, LB David Mayo (Hamstring) Questionable, G Willie Beavers (Undisclosed) Out, G Wes Schweitzer (Concussion) Out, C Chase Roullier (Knee) Out, G Nolan Laufenberg (Undisclosed) Out, OT Sam Cosmi (Thumb) Questionable, TE Curtis Hodges (Thigh) Out, TE Logan Thomas (Calf) Questionable, DT Phidarian Mathis (Torn Meniscus) Out, DE Chase Young (Knee (ACL)) Out.

CHI INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

OL Dakota Dozier (Leg/Knee) Out, WR Byron Pringle (Calf) Out, DB Dane Cruikshank (Hamstring) Probable, DB Jaylon Johnson (Quad) Probable, LB Matt Adams (Calf) Questionable, OL Cody Whitehair (Knee) Out, OL Doug Kramer (Foot) Out, OL Alex Leatherwood (Undisclosed)Out.

THE PICK: CHI-1

Sunday October 16^th, 2022 1:00pm

SF 49ers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (2-3), (5-0) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (2-0) ATS                                       ATL+5 ½  

LW, SF was @CAR and if SF didn’t blow CAR out, then they themselves are not that good. But, they went on to beat a very bad CAR team that is also missing a decent QB. This was not a game that I would evaluate SF. The previous week’s game vs LAR was a game that was rightfully that you could evaluate. In any event, SF never trailed in this game and CAR trailed 17-9 after training 17-3. SF won the game 37-15. The SF DEF sacked CAR QBs 6x, had a PICK6 off CAR QB Baker Mayfield and held CAR to 64 total yards rushing. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw 2tds, 0INTS and was sacked 2x. The rushing game for SF took a lot of pressure off of Jimmy G by rushing for a combined 153 yards and 2tds. Jimmy G had no turnovers and SF coasted. LW, ATL spotted TB a 21-0 lead before waking up and trying to make a comeback. I liked ATL+8 ½ because I felt strongly that ATL wouldn’t win the game but somehow they would get the backdoor cover. They did and would have had the chance for a win, if a bogus roughing the passer penalty wasn’t called. It was a 3^rd & 5 and Brady was sacked by ATL DE Grady Jarrett that would have given the ball back to ATL. ATL was robbed but they played tough, only giving up 2tds and 2fgs to TB. The final score was TB 21-15. L9 SF vs ATL, ATL 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS incl ATL(H) vs SF, ATL 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. SF 9-8 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. SF 13-12 ATS in 2^nd f BB Rgs. SF 26-41 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 35-39 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 13-16-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB non-div gms. SF 7-20 ATS as a FAV vs <500 opp. ATL 9-9 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. ATL 28-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 37-33 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL is a feisty bunch & QB Marcus Mariota takes what the DEF is giving him no matter who he is playing. He was sacked 5x LW @TB but didn’t have any lost fumbles which is more important. Plus, SF has to be careful because Mariota is mobile and will take off where he sees fit. RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson is out but ATL can get the running game done by committee. SF has shown strength the last 2weeks but they have been vs a very bad team (CAR) and an average team (LAR). Before that, they somehow lost to DEN?, which was Jimmy G’s 1^st game this season as a starter. I can’t think that ATL will just roll over here after getting robbed last week @TB. The record that ATL has vs the spread (5-0) says that they are very close in every game. In ATL’s three losses, they have lost all three by 1, 4, & 6pts respectively, all by less than a td. If Jimmy G is not careful, he could throw a couple of INTS. The HOME team will be revved up here, take ATL and the points.      

SF INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

TE Jordan Matthews (Leg/Knee) Out, DB Jimmie Ward (Hand) Questionable, CB Jason Verrett (Knee (ACL)) Questionable, CB Emmanuel Moseley (Knee) Out, QB Trey Lance (Ankle) Out, K Robbie Gould (Knee) Questionable, RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee (MCL)) Out, RB Tyrion Davis-Price (Ankle) Questionable, DB Tarvarius Moore (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Knee) Out, LB Curtis Robinson (Ankle) Out, OL Colton McKivitz (Knee) Out, OT Trent Williams (Ankle) Questionable, DL Jordan Willis (Knee) Out, TE Tyler Kroft (Knee) Questionable, DL Arik Armstead (Ankle) Questionable, DL Kalia Davis (Undisclosed) Out, DL Maurice Hurst (Bicep) Out, DL Nick Bosa (Groin) Questionable, DT Javon Kinlaw (Knee) Questionable.

ATL INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

LS Beau Brinkley (Achilles) Out, ILB Mykal Walker (Groin) Questionable, WR Drake London (Knee) Questionable, RB Damien Williams (Ribs) Out, TE Kyle Pitts (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Calvin Ridley (Suspended) Out, CB Isaiah Oliver (Knee) Questionable, OL Jalen Mayfield (Back) Out, RB Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) Out, TE John FitzPatrick (Undisclosed) Out, DL Marlon Davidson (Knee) Out, DT Vincent Taylor (Achilles) Out.

THE PICK: ATL+5 ½

NE Patriots (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                          NE+3

LW on the Rick Kamla Show on the Bettor Sports Network, I said to keep an eye on NE QB Bailey Zappe. This guy may turn out to be something. I should have taken my own advice. DET is terrible going into their bye and terrible outdoors. NE was run heavy to take pressure off of Zappe and NE beat DET on the ground and in the air, 29-0. This game was 16-0 at the half and one thing about NE HC Bill Belichick, his teams rarely give back games. DET had 4possessions in the 2^nd half and turned the ball on downs all 4x. NE took advantage of every DET mistake with points and DET played catchup all game with no points to show for it. Also, NE RB Rhomandre Stevenson has quietly etched himself into the starting position with a 161 yd rushing performance vs DET. Look for NE to keep going with same formula. LW, CLEV QB Jacoby Brisett showed again why he is not the man. He threw another INT late in the game when it mattered most. CLEV had this game because the LAC HC, Staley gave them great field position after a questionable 4^th down play in the middle of the field late in the game. CLEV has a great running game with RBS Chubb & Hunt but the CLEV DEF also give up a lot of yards on the ground. Don’t think that Belichick hasn’t taken note. Brissett seems to make mistakes when the game is on the line. Not the mark of a good QB. This game vs LAC was seesaw battle that was up for grabs and neither DEF could make a stop. It was CLEV’s game to win or lose and they decided to lose. NE will not give them the choice this week. L7 CLEV vs NE, NE 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. CLEVE 8-15 ATS in 2^nd of BB HG’s. CLEV 25-18-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEV 13-9-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CLEV 24-22-4 ATS since 2003 as a HOME FAV vs non-div. CLEV 7-1-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEV 7-1-1 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEV 7-0 ATS as a non-div FAV 13<pts vs opp off DD SU win. NE 25-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 38-22-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 22-12 ATS L34 as a DOG. NE 4-8 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 2-6 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. NE 10-2-2 ATS L16 vs AFC NORTH. NE 4-7 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU losses. NE 18-4 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. Zappe is going to be there again this SUN and this is good game experiences for him. When NE QB Brian Hoyer is healthy NE should relegate him to 3^rd string because Zappe has already proven that he can do the job and he is better situated than Hoyer. If Zappe wins more games, QB Mac Jones may be doing a Drew Bledsoe. As for CLEV, they can’t get out of their own way. CLEV #28 RUSH DEF vs NE #9 RUSH OFF is the matchup here. CLEV could use a new Kicker because he personally lost the game for CLEV LW. NE will look to use their 2RB tandem of Stevenson & Damien Harris(questionable) to keep the CLEV DEF guessing and take pressure off of Zappe. Last season NE crushed CLEV @NE in wk 10, 45-7. Is there a revenge factor here? Maybe, but that was with Baker Mayfield as the QB and he’s long gone. The fact that NE is getting points here makes you wonder but I’ll take it with NE.  

NE INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Kristian Wilkerson (Concussion) Out, K Quinn Nordin (Undisclosed) Out, QB Brian Hoyer (Head) Out, QB Mac Jones (Ankle) Questionable, WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) Out, WR Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Jonathan Jones (Ankle) Questionable, CB Joejuan Williams (Shoulder) Out, RB Damien Harris (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Ronnie Perkins (Undisclosed) Out, OL Andrew Stueber (Hamstring) Out, OL Yodny Cajuste (Thumb) Out. TE Jonnu Smith (Ankle) Questionable, DL Lawrence Guy Sr. (Shoulder) Questionable, DL Damarcus Mitchell (Concussion) Questionable.

CLEV INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

ILB Deion Jones (Shoulder) Out, WRIsaiah Weston (Knee) Out, QB Deshaun Watson (Suspension) Out, LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Quad) Out, WR Jakeem Grant Sr. (Achilles) Out, CB Denzel Ward (Concussion) Questionable, CB Greedy Williams (Hamstring) Questionable, RB Jerome Ford (Ankle) Out, G Dawson Deaton (ACL) Out, C Nick Harris (Knee) Out, LB Chris Odom (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Chase Winovich (Hamstring) Out, TE Jesse James (Biceps) Out, DE Stephen Weatherly (Knee) Out.

THE PICK: NE+3

NY Jets (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ GB Packers (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                                      NYJ+7

LW, GB in London vs NYG were up 17-3 in the 2^nd qtr and 20-10 at the half. It looked like it was the beginning of a romp for GB. Well, GB HC Matt LeFleur decided that the game was over and the rest of the team stopped playing. NYG scored on three straight possessions in the 2^nd half as GB scored 0pts and the NYG won the game 27-22. The only scoring for GB was a safety. The DEF for GB disappeared in the 2^nd half as the NYG made some adjustments and took control of this game away from GB. The DEF for GB which had been touted earlier in the season as much better, couldn’t and didn’t make stops when they needed to. NYG rushed for 3tds past a DEF that was shaking their heads. The GB DEF could only sack NYG QB Daniel Jones 1x and created 0turovers. Honestly, GB deserved to lose the game. LW, NYJ DEF knocked out MIA QB Teddy Bridgewater on the 1^st play of the game for MIA. Bridgewater was replaced by 3^rd string QB Skylar Thompson who threw 1INT and had 1 lost fumble. NYJ took a lead that they never relinquished and won 40-17. MIA was playing catchup with a 3^rd string QB and the NYJ were all over it. Yes, NYJ QB Zach Wilson had a nice game with 0turnovers and the DEF did its job as well. But NYJ were playing against a QB that had no reps and no preparation before being thrown into the game. However, a win is a win. L4 NYJ vs GB, NYJ 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS. NYJ 4-11-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 36-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 28-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 26-27-1 ATS L54 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 2-9 ATS L11 off SU DIV win. NYJ 8-19 ATS L27 after scoring 25>pts. GB 37-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. 26-27-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 19-22-1 ATS L42 vs AFC. GB 15-4 ATS off DD ATS loss. GB 8-0 ATS L8 as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. Rodgers hasn’t lost two games in a row since 2018. That is not a misprint. NYJ had a nice game LW but it was against a 3^rd string QB who had no reps and no practice throughout the season. NYJ were celebrating like they won the SuperBowl. Surely they need all the confidence they can get but there are two factors here that are working strongly against them. First, they were the winners of a blowout. Usually, the next week the winner doesn’t play as well and certainly doesn’t score as many points. Look for a letdown. Second, GB is in bounceback mode off a loss, a big loss. They lost a game that they should never have lost and GB is probably fuming and anxious to get back on the field. I know Rodgers is. If GB @HOME can’t beat the NYJ by at least seven points then GB is certainly not going deep into the playoffs. NYJ ZACH Wilson & CO will come back down to Earth in Lambeau Field. Lay the points here. 

NYJ INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

OT Greg Senat (Undisclosed) Out, OT Mekhi Becton (Kneecap) Out, FB Nick Bawden (Undisclosed) Out, DE Jermaine Johnson (Ankle) Questionable, LB Quincy Williams (Ankle) Questionable, OL Max Mitchell (Knee) Out, OT George Fant (Knee) Out, DL Vinny Curry (Hamstring) Questionable.

GB INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Christian Watson (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Sammy Watkins (Hamstring) Out, RB Kylin Hill (Knee) Out, LB Krys Barnes (Ankle) Out, OT Caleb Jones (Illness) Out, DL Devonte Wyatt (Quadricep) Questionable.

THE PICK: GB-7

Jacksonville Jags (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                          JAGS+2

Just when you think the JAGS are going to take the next step forward, they go two steps back. After his 5 turnover performance @PHILLY two weeks ago, JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence has 2INTS @HOME vs HOU which don’t help in a tight game against the even worse HOU team. JAGS lost @HOME to HOU 13-6. The stats for the JAGS OFF look good but, they couldn’t get anywhere near the endzone which is what matters most. As for INDY, they were @DEN on TNF where DEN played not to win and gave INDY every chance to win. INDY finally won in OT, 12-9. INDY 2-1 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. This was another thriller of a game. INDY QB Matt Ryan has looked awful in INDY and probably thinks he just should have retired. In 5 gms, Ryan has 5tds & 7INTS and he has been sacked 21x. He has also fumbled 11x. How INDY @HOME beat KC in wk 3 is a complete mystery. L15 INDY(H) vs JAGS, INDY 11-4 SU but 4-9-2 ATS. L31 INDY vs JAGS, ROAD 15-14-2 ATS. L26 INDY vs JAGS, 12-11-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. L20 INDY vs JAGS, JAGS 11-7-2 ATS. JAGS 31-36 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 27-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 17-28 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. JAGS 8-3 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs div opp. JAGS 8-8 ATS L16 after HOU. JAGS 1-8 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. INDY 18-27-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 29-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 32-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 6-0 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 18-11 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. This is a revenge game for INDY. JAGS @HOME beat INDY in wk 2 in an embarrassing fashion, 24-0. INDY looked horrible in that game and couldn’t do anything right. Right now, JAGS can’t do anything right. Since and including the 2014 season, neither one of these two teams has swept the season series except in 2017 when JAGS swept and in 2014 when INDY swept. I don’t see that happening again because INDY is @HOME and has had a nice rest since their TNF game @DEN. Granted INDY is overrated and they seem lost at times but they should win this game by more than a fg just on sheer gusto alone.  

JAGS INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

OLB K'Lavon Chaisson (Knee) Out, G Ben Bartch (Knee) Questionable, DE Jordan Smith (Knee) Out, DL Folorunso Fatukasi (Quad) Questionable. 

INDY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

S Armani Watts (Ankle) Out, P Rigoberto Sanchez (Achilles) Out, WR Ashton Dulin (Foot) Questionable, RB Nyheim Hines (Concussion) Questionable, RB Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) Questionable, S Julian Blackmon (Ankle) Questionable, S Trevor Denbow (Foot) Out, DE Kwity Paye (Ankle) Questionable, LB Shaquille Leonard (Concussion) Questionable, OT Carter O'Donnell (Undisclosed) Out, C Ryan Kelly (Hip) Questionable, TE Andrew Ogletree (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Tyquan Lewis (Concussion) Questionable.

THE PICK: INDY-2

Minnesota Vikings (4-1), (2-2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                        MIA+3

LW, MINN @HOME had a nice lead on CHI 21-3. But, no one told CHI about the score and they stormed back 22-21 while MINN temporarily went to sleep. MINN then went on a 7:00 drive that ended with a 1yd rushing td by QB Kirk Cousins. MINN was ahead 29-22. Then as CHI was driving and it looked like CHI would tie, MINN CB Cameron Dantzler stripped the ball away from CH WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette after a completed pass for a MINN recovery and an icing to the game for MINN. MINN should have won this game by a larger margin as they missed 2fgs which turned into 3CHI pts and an INT which also turned into 3 CHI pts. Sloppiness by MINN almost cost them the game. The running game took a lot of pressure off of Cousins as RBs Dalvin Cook & Alexander Mattison combined for 113 yds on 27 carries and 2tds. LW, disaster came early for MIA @NYJ. MIA QB Teddy Bridgewater was tackled on MIA’s 1^st play from scrimmage and suffered a concussion. Third string QB Skyler Thompson comes in with no practices or reps and is completely out of sync and the game is lost 40-17. MIA never recovered and NYJ capitalized on it. Not taking anything away from a win for NYJ but I liked MIA w/Teddy. Not much to say here as Thompson did the best he could under the circumstances. L4 MINN vs MIA, MIA 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. MINN 18-8 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 11-4 ATS since 2007 wk before bye. MINN 36-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 31-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 8-6 ATS L14 after CHI. MINN 12-4 ATS AWAY of f BB SU wins. MINN 13-3 ATS off SU div win vs 600<non-div opp. MIA 19-12-1 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. MIA 9-8 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. MIA 29-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 34-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 8-14-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 4-8 ATS as a DOG 2>pts after allowing 35>pts. MIA 9-13 ATS after div RG. MIA 6-9 ATS @HOME after div RG. MIA 2-11 ATS off DD ATS div loss. MIA 5-4 ATS L9 after NYJ. MIA 0-6 ATS @HOME off DD ATS DIV loss. MINN is not a very good team that plays well in the natural elements. They have become soft in the confines of their HOME DOME in Minneapolis. As a result, MINN is 3-8 SU & 5-6 ATS L11 AWAY vs NON-DIV, outdoors. You can’t count div gms here because they play differently in their own division but, they have become softer. However, this game is being judged on the premise that neither QB Tua Tagovailoa nor QB Teddy Bridgewater will be available for this game. Tua is definitely out but, right now Teddy has not even begun to practice. As for MIA they have no running game to speak of and this is going to cause them to lose games. MIA #30 RUSH OFF vs MINN #20 RUSH DEF. So far, MINN has faced teams that are all in the top 11 of RUSHING OFFENSE. This is another factor to consider. This is the first team that is way below that. MINN has to create turnovers in this game vs Thompson. MINN also has to get their running game early to take pressure off of Cousins. With that philosophy going forward, MINN should win easily. Lay the points here.   

MINN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

DE Kenny Willekes (Undisclosed) Out, RB Alexander Mattison (Non Injury Related) N/A, S Lewis Cine (Ankle) Out, WR Blake Proehl (ACL) Questionable, CB Akayleb Evans (Head) Questionable, CB Andrew Booth Jr. (Quad) Questionable, RB Ty Chandler (Ankle) Questionable, WR Bisi Johnson (Knee (ACL)) Out, TE Ben Ellefson (Groin) Out, WR Jalen Nailor (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Thomas Hennigan (Undisclosed) Out.

MIA INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

TE Adam Shaheen (Knee) Out, CB Trill Williams (Knee (ACL)) Out, QB Tua Tagovailoa (Concussion) Questionable, QB Teddy Bridgewater (Head) Questionable, WR Tyreek Hill (Foot) Questionable, WR Erik Ezukanma (Gameday Inactive) Questionable, CB Byron Jones (Achilles) Out, CB Xavien Howard (Groin) Questionable, RB Salvon Ahmed (Back) Questionable, FB John Lovett (Knee) Out, OT Terron Armstead (Toe) Questionable, OL Austin Jackson (Ankle) Out, TE Durham Smythe (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Cethan Carter (Concussion) Out.

THE PICK: MINN-3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ NO Saints (2-3), (1-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                      NO+1 ½  

LW, NO QB/RB Taysom Hill was a one man wrecking crew. He threw a td with his only pass and he rushed for 112 yds and 3tds on only 9 carries. SEA had no answer for him. I liked SEA with the points but, no one could have imagined that Hill would go off like he did even with SEA’s DEF being so bad. NO got a win they so desperately needed. NO QB Andy Dalton was decent, not great but, I’m sure that he would like to play this week vs his old team, CINNCY. But, NO QB Jameis Winston is slated to come back and start @HOME vs CINNCY. The game vs SEA was a seesaw battle with an OFF juggernaut coming from both sides. Over 840 yds of total OFF combined from both teams. This game wasn’t decided until late in the 4^th qtr when SEA couldn’t get a late 4^th qtr drive to move forward. LW, on SNF, I liked CINNCY+3 because they are the better team. They made two mistakes that were crucial. First, was the INT that turned into 3 BALT pts. Second, was their possession right after that down 13-10. It was a 15-play drive that stalled with a 4^th & 2 at the BALT 2yd line and a pass that fell incomplete. The play selection close to the goal line was suspect and CINNCY didn’t get in. They did however get a td after BALT kicked another fg, to make the score CINNCY 17-16 but BALT went down the field and automatic BALT K Justin Tucker kicked a fg with :00 to win the game for BALT 19-17. This was a game that CINNCY should have won. NO 1-8 ATS L9 @HOME vs AFC NORTH. L4 CINNCY vs NO, CINNCY 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. NO 8-6-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. NO 11-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HG’s. NO 33-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 30-18 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 10-15-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC. CINNCY 12-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 14-12 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 3-6-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. This is a bounceback game for CINNCY as they look to get back on the winning horse and get back to .500 and beyond. NO DEF is terrible and they cannot stop anyone. NO TOT DEF #16 w/#24 RUSH DEF. But, who have they played? ATL & SEA are their wins while they have lost to TB, @CAR? & MINN. Right now, CINNCY is where MINN is and just a little under TB. This is sort of a homecoming for CINNCY QB Joe Burrow having played @LSU and winning a national championship. He also knows that one got away from CINNCY on SNF and he will use his balanced attack to take it to NO. Do you think NO will score 39pts in this game? I doubt it. CINNCY TOT DEF #13 w/#7 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. CINNCY has had a much tougher schedule and they started out slowly but, they are closer to a mid season groove in putting together some wins and taking charge in the AFC NORTH. Lay the points here as CINNCY takes it to NO in the Big Easy. Look for Winston to be rusty and have at least two turnovers.  

CINNCY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

S Tycen Anderson (Hamstring) Out, RB Elijah Holyfield (Knee) Out, S Brandon Wilson (Knee (ACL)) Out, LS Clark Harris (Biceps) Out, LB Joe Bachie (Knee) Out, C Ben Brown (Bicep) Out, OT Isaiah Prince (Elbow) Out, WR Tee Higgins (Ankle) Questionable, TE Drew Sample (Knee) Out, DT DJ Reader (Knee) Out.

NO INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

TE Dylan Soehner (Undisclosed) Out, LB Isaiah Pryor (Undisclosed) Out, QB Jameis Winston (Back/Ankle) Questionable, WR Jarvis Landry (Ankle) Questionable, S Marcus Maye (Rib) Questionable, WR Deonte Harty (Foot) Questionable, WR Chris Olave (Concussion) Questionable, WR Michael Thomas (Foot) Questionable, WR Kawaan Baker (Suspended) Out, CB Marshon Lattimore (Abdomen) Questionable, CB P.J. Williams (Quad) Out, CB Alontae Taylor (Knee) Out, S Smoke Monday (Knee (ACL)) Out, LB D'Marco Jackson (Undisclosed) Out, OT Trevor Penning (Foot) Out, OT Ethan Greenidge (Knee) Out, OL Calvin Throckmorton (Ankle) Questionable, G Forrest Lamp (Undisclosed) Out, DT Albert Huggins (Leg) Out, DE Payton Turner (Chest) Questionable.

THE PICK: CINNCY-1 ½

Baltimore Ravens (3-2), (2-2-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ NY Giants (4-1), (4-1) ATS (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                    NYG+5 ½  

LW on SNF, BALT should thank their lucky stars that they have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker. This was a seesaw battle in BALT vs CINNCY and CINNCY is the type of team that doesn’t go away. Both teams were playing stellar DEF and CINNCY made some adjustments after finding themselves down in the 2^nd qtr 10-0. Tucker kicked a fg with :00 left to win 19-17. I liked CINNCY +3 because I had a strong feeling that it would come down to the wire. BALT was held to 1td and 4fgs. The INT by BALT did turn into a CINNCY td and the CINNCY INT turned into 3pts by BALT. Not much damage as this was a tight game until the end. BALT QB Lamar Jackson was kept in check for the most part and but the BALT DEF was able to get 3sacks that helped them stop CINNCY. LW in London, NYG made believers out of a lot of people. GB was heavily favored, -8 but NYG didn’t care. NYG were trailing 17-3 but made some adjustments and ended up beating GB 27-22. NYG rushed for a combined 125yds and 3tds which took a lot of pressure off of NYG QB Daniel Jones. Even though Jones didn’t pass or run for a td, most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over which would have given extra chances for GB & Rodgers. NYG played ball control and stopped GB in the 2^nd half from pulling away when GB was up 20-10. Can NYG do it a 2^nd week in a row? BALT QB Lamar Jackson is a different style of QB than Rodgers so NYG HC Brian Daboll needs to keep the DEF alert and aggressive otherwise Jackson will pick them apart. L5 BALT vs NYG, BALT 3-2 SUATS. HOME TEAM 5-0 SUATS. BALT 17-13-1 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 30-33-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 28-36-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 12-16-1 ATS L29 vs NFC. BALT 9-2 ATS L11 before CLEV. BALT 6-8 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 9-14 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. NYG 13-21 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. NYG 29-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 33-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 3-8 AT off BB SUATS wins. NYG 3-7 ATS as a non-conf DOG <6pts. NYG 10-6 ATS vs .333>non-conf opp. NYG 23-6 ATS as a DOG >5pts after an SU win. NYG 2-6 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU DOG win. NYG have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The pressure is on BALT because they are expected to win. Yes, NYG are playing better than expected and the win LW vs GB was also not expected after trailing 17-3. Most people thought that GB was going to run away with it. Instead, NYG made some nice adjustments but, NYG had help too. The GB OFF got off its game plan and the plays going forward were suspect at best. But, NYG made the most of their opportunities and they took a few plays out of their trick bag. RB Barkley showed everyone that he is 100%. As for BALT, they were lucky to get the win @HOME vs CINNCY. CINNCY was very tough and they controlled Jackson in the pocket. Had it not been for that late series that was thwarted and turned over on downs, BALT may have lost. But, since they have the most reliable kicker in the NFL, it was no doubt that they got a fg at the end to win vs CINNCY. But in this game, NYG should be pumped up but, they need to contain Jackson from taking off. If they can do that consistently, they will win this game. If he is able to run wild, NYG will lose miserably. Hopefully HC Brian Daboll is listening. Take the points here as NYG need to show everyone that last week wasn’t a fluke.

BALT INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Rashod Bateman (Foot) Questionable, CB Kyle Fuller (Knee) Out, S Marcus Williams (Wrist) Out, RB Gus Edwards (ACL) Questionable, RB Justice Hill (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Vince Biegel (Achilles) Out, OLB Justin Houston (Groin) Questionable, ILB Josh Ross (Foot) Out, OLB Tyus Bowser (Achilles) Out, DT Michael Pierce (Biceps) Out, OLB Steven Means (Ankle) Out, G Ben Cleveland (Foot) Questionable, OT Ja'Wuan James (Achilles) Out, WR Slade Bolden (Undisclosed) Out, TE Charlie Kolar (Sports Hernia) Out, OLB David Ojabo (Achilles) Out.

NYG INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

CB Rodarius Williams (Knee (ACL)) Out, QB Tyrod Taylor (Head) Questionable, WR Sterling Shepard (Knee) Out, WR Collin Johnson (Achilles) Out, WR Wan'Dale Robinson (Knee) Questionable, WR Kenny Golladay (Knee) Questionable, CB Adoree' Jackson (Knee) Questionable, DB Cor'Dale Flott (Calf) Questionable, CB Aaron Robinson (Knee) Out, DB Fabian Moreau (Undisclosed) Questionable, ILB Darrian Beavers (Knee (ACL)) Out, OLB Azeez Ojulari (Calf) Questionable, OL Marcus McKethan (Knee (ACL)) Out, C Nick Gates (Leg) Questionable, G Shane Lemieux (Foot) Out, OT Matt Peart (Knee (ACL)) Out, WR Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Elerson Smith (Leg) Out, DL Henry Mondeaux (Ankle) Out, DL D.J. Davidson (Ankle) Out, DL Leonard Williams (Knee) Questionable.

THE PICK: NYG+5 ½

TB Buccaneers (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                               PITT+8

LW, PITT had their teeth knocked out @BUFF, 38-3. The score was BUFF 7-3 very early in the game due to a missed BUFF fg. But, that was as close as PITT would get. BUFF got 2tds off of 2 missed fgs by PITT. PITT was trying to play catchup all day with no success. It’s not that PITT turned the ball over too much in this game, they didn’t (1INT 1lost fumble). It’s just that the BUFF DEF stopped the PITT OFF from doing any damage. But on the flip side, the PITT DEF was torched, especially the secondary which by the way, is overrated. PITT QB Kenny Pickett played well under the circumstances but his stats are inflated because BUFF was up big early. However, he was 34/52, 327yds, 0tds, 1INT, no fumbles. Pickett was able to spread the ball to 10 different receivers. But again, PITT was in major catchup mode and DEFs tend to loosen up a little when they know the game is out of reach. LW, TB was @HOME vs ATL. I liked ATL because they are a scrappy bunch and never give up. TB took a nice 21-0 lead into the 4^th qtr but decide that was enough football for one day. ATL scored 15 points and had a nice sack of TB QB Tom Brady which would have given the ball back to ATL. Well, if you have been on MARS, you’re the only one who doesn’t know what happened next. Anyway, the score ended, TB 21-15. But the TB DEF did sack ATL QB Marcus Mariota 5x before letting ATL make it close in the 4^th qtr. By the way, I liked ATL for the back door cover as mentioned by me on the Rick Kamla Show on the Bettor Sports Network last Friday night. I knew TB would win but ATL would make it close. PITT 11-4-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. PITT 41-21-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 27-12-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 9-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts. PITT 19-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 19-5 ATS as a DOG vs >500 opp. PITT 16-1 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. TB 17-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TB 12-3 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs vs <600 opp. TB 11-12 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. TB 20-37-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 20-35-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 26-24-1 ATS L51 AWAY vs non-div. Is Pickett getting adjusted to the pro-game? PITT is all in on him and they will go through some growing pains as he gets comfortable in the QB position. But, PITT needs to have guys around him produce and protect so that all the pressure is not on him to win games by himself. TB is a tale of two teams. They are a second tier team right now. They have won @DAL, which DAL has gotten a lot better since week1. They have won @NO, so what and then ATL LW. But they have lost @HOME to GB & KC. This is not typical Brady fashion. But, this is not vintage Brady. He is at the end of his career and probably feels that he shouldn’t have come back for this season but here he is. There are some games he will certainly get up for and this is probably one of them. TB should take PITT to the mat @PITT. TB should be able to get their run game going vs PITT to keep the PITT DEF guessing. L12, Brady as a member of NE, vs PITT, Brady 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS incl @PITT 4-3 SUATS. TB should be able to get themselves on track and take care of a PITT team that is trying to find themselves. Plus, if Brady looks at the film on the PITT secondary, he should get giddy with anticipation of facing this bunch. Plus, the PITT DEF didn’t even sack BUFF QBS 1x. Brady with time? Dangerous. It is a big number to lay on the road but Brady & CO are due.  Lay the points here. 

TB INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Julio Jones (Knee) Questionable, WR Breshad Perriman (Knee/Hamstring) Questionable, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Quad) Questionable, CB Carlton Davis III (Hip) Questionable, RB Giovani Bernard (Ankle) Out, S Logan Ryan (Foot) Questionable, RB Kenjon Barner (Groin) Out, OLB Cam Gill (Foot) Out, G Aaron Stinnie (Knee (ACL) (MCL)) Out, C Ryan Jensen (Knee) Out, OT Josh Wells (Calf) Out, TE Cameron Brate (Concussion) Questionable, DL Akiem Hicks (Foot) Questionable.

PITT INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

RB Jeremy McNichols (Shoulder) Out, DB Carlins Platel (Undisclosed) Out, WR Anthony Miller (Shoulder) Out, WR Calvin Austin III (Foot) Questionable, CB Cameron Sutton (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Levi Wallace (Head) Questionable, S Terrell Edmunds (Concussion) Questionable, S Karl Joseph (Ankle/Foot) Out, LB Hamilcar Rashed Jr. (Undisclosed) Out, WR Steven Sims (Eye) Questionable, TE Pat Freiermuth (Concussion) Questionable, LB T.J. Watt (Pectoral) Out, DT Larry Ogunjobi (Back) Questionable.

THE PICK: TB-8

Sunday October 16^th, 2022 4:00pm

Carolina Panthers (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ LA Rams (2-3), (1-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS                                          CAR+10 ½  

LW, CAR was @HOME vs SF and they couldn’t do anything right. CAR QB Baker Mayfield who has regressed, had a PICK6 but most of all suffered a high ankle sprain and will be out 2-6 weeks. In comes QB PJ Walker who has been with CAR since 2020 and has started two games where he is 2-0 but has 2tds & 8INTS. As a starter, he has a win vs DET in 2020 and a win @ARZ in 2021. In this game, SF smothered CAR on both sides of the ball and CAR was playing catchup for almost the whole game. It was SF 17-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. CAR HC Matt Rhule and a couple of assistant coaches were fired on Monday and Steve Wilks who was an assistant coach was named interim HC. His only HC position in his whole career was the ARZ HC in 2018. ARZ went 3-13. LAR is not exactly a team that is doing anything right either. LW @HOME, LAR were looking mighty bad vs DAL. LAR had another blocked punt which turned into 3pts for DAL. LAR QB Matthew Stafford was sacked 5x and the O-LINE for LAR continues to be a problem. The running game for LAR is non-existent and once highly touted LAR RB Cam Akers is not looking good either. LAR #32 RUSH OFF. This is not getting it done. LAR looked to have some life and actually took the lead 10-9 in this game but the DAL DEF was too much as DAL won 22-10. Some dropped passes by DAL receivers stalled drives that could have led to more DAL points. The score was closer than the game really was because the DAL DEF was all over the LAR OFF. L7 CAR vs LAR, CAR 5-2 SU & 4-1-2 ATS. CAR 34-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 38-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 12-12 ATS of SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 7-9-2 ATS before TB. CAR 1-9 ATS as a RD 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 4-15 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 7-0 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). CAR 9-2 ATS as a DOG >3pts vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). LAR 6-9 ATS since 2007 before their bye. LAR 30-21 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 31-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 9-3-1 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 8-1 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 8-3 TA S as a HF 2>pts vs .250<non-div opp. LAR 9-3 ATS as a FAV 13<pts off SU loss. LAR 11-3 ATS vs <333 opp. LAR 5-0 ATS L5 @HOME after FAV loss. CAR HC Matt Rhule was set up to fail. He never had a true QB and even though he had QB Teddy Bridgewater in 2020, the team was built around him & RB Christian McCaffrey. No one was added to strengthen the team and they finished 5-11. Bridgewater left after 2020 and they haven’t had a decent #1 QB since. Wilks may be overwhelmed and CAR will be outmatched in this game as LAR is looking for a big bounceback game to right some of the ship. CAR will look to get RB Christain McCaffrey more involved but LAR DEF should be waiting. This game has blowout written all over it and LAR shouldn’t disappoint. LAR should score points on OFF and DEF unless LAR HC Sean McVay finds a way to screw things up. McVay is a predictable HC and his play selection is very suspect at times. But LAR needs this game as a confidence booster as LAR has not played the same since 2021. Lay the points here.  

CAR INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

K Zane Gonzalez (Groin) Out, QB Baker Mayfield (Ankle) Out, QB Matt Corral (Ankle/Foot) Out, QB Sam Darnold (Ankle) Out, WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Andre Roberts (Knee) Out, S Jeremy Chinn (Hamstring) Out, CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver III (Achilles) Questionable, S Xavier Woods (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Frankie Luvu (Shoulder) Questionable, LB Julian Stanford (Undisclosed) Out, TE Stephen Sullivan (Back) Questionable, DT Bravvion Roy (Hamstring) Out.

LAR INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

CB Troy Hill (Groin) Out, DB Jordan Fuller (Hamstring) Out, WR Van Jefferson (Knee) Out, DB Cobie Durant (Hamstring) Questionable, DB David Long Jr. (Groin) Questionable, RB Kyren Williams (Ankle) Out, DB Taylor Rapp (Ribs) Questionable, ILB Travin Howard (Groin) Out, S Quentin Lake (Knee) Out, OLB Daniel Hardy (Ankle) Out, C Brian Allen (Knee) Questionable, G Logan Bruss (Knee (ACL)) Out, G Coleman Shelton (Ankle) Out, OT Tremayne Anchrum Jr. (Leg) Out, DT Bobby Brown III (Suspended) Out.

THE PICK: LAR-10 ½

Arizona Cardinals (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                               SEA+3

LW, my upset pick of the week was ARZ+5 @HOME vs PHILLY. ARZ QB Kyler Murray didn’t hear me because ARZ stopped PHILLY and the momentum was with ARZ. But Kyler Murray, who beats to his own drum, didn’t know where the 1^st down marker was, had a clear path to a first down, slid early, thereby not getting the 1^st down and then wasting the next play for a fg. Well, the kicker for ARZ is so bad that he missed a game tying fg so far right that it landed in New Mexico. Game over, PHILLY 20-17. I am not going to rant and rave here but ARZ for the most part, kept PHILLY in check. This was a winnable game for ARZ. The DEFs for both teams played adequately enough to keep each team in reach of a win. But the PHILLY DEF broke down late and Murray didn’t take full advantage of it and that was the difference in this game. LW, SEA was @NO & SEA just let NO QB/RB Taysom Hill take charge of the game and he ran SEA over. Hill ran for 3tds and threw for 1td. SEA QB Geno Smith is doing a good job but, the SEA DEF is absolutely terrible. SEA #32 TOT DEF w/#32 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. They are dead last in the NFL giving up 430 total yds a game. This is a long way from the “Legion of Boom”. The SEA OFF is very good. SEA #8 TOT OFF. But SEA has played teams with mostly bad DEFs. At NO, SEA ended up in a shootout and they came up short 39-32. This is what happens when your DEF can’t stop anyone. L18 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 14-3-1 ATS. L15 SEA(H) vs ARZ, SEA 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS. SEA 6-3 ATS L9 as a HOME DOG. SEA 20-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 29-24-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 20-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SEA 10-6 ATS @HOMe vs <500 div opp. SEA 14-7-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & coming HOME. ARZ 15-9 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 24-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 23-21 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ARZ 21-23 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ should be looking to take full advantage of SEA’s bad DEF. A rally bad DEF at that. Murray needs to get his head back in the game and take charge here. AZ has been good of a loss this season and they have been both off a loss @HOME. The SEA DEF doesn’t scare me so much that it could stop a well balanced OFF attack from ARZ. Murray needs to take what the DEF gives him and not try to force the ball. The DEF for ARZ has to do what they did vs PHILLY and contain guys from making great plays. The ROAD team in this series has the serious advantage. Lay the points here as ARZ bounces back and SEA gets beat.

ARZ INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

OL Joshua Miles (Undisclosed) Out, K Matt Prater (Hip) Questionable, RB James Conner (Ribs) Questionable, WR DeAndre Hopkins (Suspended) Out, QB Colt McCoy (Arm) Questionable, WR Antoine Wesley (Hip) Questionable, CB Trayvon Mullen (Hamstring) Questionable, RB Darrel Williams (Knee) Questionable, S Charles Washington (Chest) Out, RB Jonathan Ward (Hamstring) Questionable, S Tae Daley (Undisclosed) Out, ILB Nick Vigil (Hamstring) Out, OL Rodney Hudson (Knee) Questionable, OL Cody Ford (Ankle) Out, OL Lachavious Simmons (Undisclosed) Out, OL Max Garcia (Toe) Questionable, OL Marquis Hayes (Knee) Out, DT Rashard Lawrence (Hand) Questionable.

SEA INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Cody Thompson (Shoulder) Out, WR Marquise Goodwin (Knee) Questionable, WR Penny Hart (Hamstring) Questionable, RB Rashaad Penny (Lower Leg) Out, CB Tre Brown (Knee) Out, RB Travis Homer (Ribs) Out, CB Justin Coleman (Calf) Questionable, CB John Reid (Groin) Out, SS Jamal Adams (Quad) Out, DE Darryl Johnson (Ankle) Out, LB Jon Rhattigan (Knee) Out, G Gabe Jackson (Hip) Questionable, LS Tyler Ott (Shoulder) Out, WR Dareke Young (Quad) Questionable, DE L.J. Collier (Elbow) Questionable, LB Tyreke Smith (Hip) Out, LB Alton Robinson (Knee (PCL)) Out, DT Al Woods (Knee) Questionable.

THE PICK: ARZ-3

Buffalo Bills (4-1), (3-1-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (4-1), (2-3) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (0-2) ATS                                             KC+3

LW BUFF @HOME vs PITT wasn’t even a contest. BUFF was up 7-3 and that was a sclose as it got. It should have been 10-3 but BUFF missed a fg prior. But that was it as BUFF went on a scoring spree to win 38-3. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw well, 20/31 424yds, 4tds, 1INT and rushed 5x for 42yds. The BUFF DEF intercepted PITT QB Kenny Picket 1x and recovered a fumble. This game was 31-3 at the halftime and BUFF just played great DEF in the 2^nd half to make sure that PITT didn’t mount a comeback. LW on MNF, KC may have been thinking ahead about this game then concentrating on LV. LV took a 17-0 lead on MNF before KC woke up. LV came out swinging but KC stayed calm and actually took the lead 30-23 late in the 4^th qtr. But LV Derek Carr had a nice game with 0turnovers and kept the KC DEF guessing all night. He threw a nice td to WR Davante Adams which made the score KC 30-29. LV elected to go for 2pts instead of the tie and Josh Jacobs was tackled short of the goal line. LV RB Josh Jacobs ran havoc all over this game as he seemed to keep the LV drives alive with big runs. KC Pat Mahomes came back with his usual coolness as he threw for 4tds in the KC win. L12 BUFF vs KC, BUFF 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS incl KC(H) vs BUFF, 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS. ROAD is 9-3 ATS. KC 6-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 36-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 23-25-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. KC 19-16-1 ATS L36 vs AFC EAST. KC 12-2 ATS as a DOG 3>pts. KC 7-12 ATS L19 after LV. KC 8-2 ATS as a HD >2pts off SU win vs opp off SU win. KC 4-10 ATS after MNF. 14-6 ATS @HOME vs 666>non-div opp. BUFF 14-14-1 AT L29 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 week before bye. BUFF 26-36-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 31-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 8-5 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 9-2-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <500 opp. BUFF 5-12-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF has probably had this game circled since the schedule came out. After last season’s heartbreaking loss in the playoffs @KC, BUFF has been playing like a team possessed. Except for the speed bump @MIA and the 1^st half @BALT, so far BUFF has been beating teams badly. In their three wins @LAR, vs TENN & vs PITT, they have outscored their opponents 110-20. They beat BALT 23-20 in a comeback and temporarily lost their way @MIA, losing 21-19. KC is beating teams in their usual fashion. The tough games have been in their division while they have toyed with @ARZ & @TB. Their only hiccup is a loss @INDY that INDY desperately needed to win and INDY pulled out all the stops. This is going to be a great game and KC won in the playoffs last season, 42-36. We don’t need to go over it here how BUFF lost. But, during the regular season BUFF did beat KC, @KC in wk 5, 38-20. The KC DEF can be beat as shown by LV, INDY & LAC but the BUFF DEF has stayed solid even though they have lost some key guys to injury. This is the battle that I am looking at that will make the difference. KC #6 TOT OFF vs BUFF #2 TOT DEF.  BUFF will create a couple of turnovers and capitalize on those turnovers into points. That will be the difference in the game. This is only chapter 1 for this season as these two teams will meet again in the playoffs. But for now, lay the points as BUFF gets their revenge.

BUFF INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

CB Xavier Rhodes (Undisclosed) Out, WR Marquez Stevenson (Foot) Out, WR Isaiah McKenzie (Concussion) Questionable, LB Andre Smith (Suspended) Out, WR Jake Kumerow (Ankle) Questionable, S Jordan Poyer (Undisclosed) Questionable, S Micah Hyde (Neck) Out, CB Tre'Davious White (ACL) Out, CB Christian Benford (Hand) Questionable, LB Tremaine Edmunds (Hamstring) Questionable, G Ike Boettger (Achilles) Out, OT Tommy Doyle (Knee (ACL)) Out, WR Jamison Crowder (Ankle) Out, TE Dawson Knox (Foot/Hamstring) Questionable.

KC INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

WR Justyn Ross (Foot) Out, K Harrison Butker (Ankle) Questionable, CB Trent McDuffie (Hamstring) Out, CB Chris Lammons (Hip) Questionable, LB Willie Gay (Suspended) Out, DE Frank Clark (Illness) Questionable, OL Trey Smith (Pectoral) Questionable, OT Lucas Niang (Kneecap) Out, WR Jerrion Ealy (Suspended) Out, TE Blake Bell (Hip) Out, DT Tershawn Wharton (ACL) Out.

THE PICK: BUFF-3

Sunday October 16^th, 2022 8:20pm

Dallas Cowboys (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-0), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                               DAL+5

LW, DAL @ LAR didn’t start well for LAR from their opening drive. LAR QB Matthew Stafford fumbled and it was returned by DE DeMarcus Lawrence for a td. LAR was playing catchup all game. The RAMS actually took the lead 10-9 but it would be very brief as DAL answered with a td and the DAL DEF kept the LAR OFF in check. The final was DAL 22-10 but it could have been worse for LAR, as DAL receivers dropped some passes that stalled some drives. The DAL DEF sacked Stafford 5x, stripping him for 2 lost fumbles and intercepting him 1x. Also, the DAL DEF held LAR to 38yards rushing. DAL QB Cooper Rush only needed to complete 10 passes to three receivers with 0turnovers to keep DAL winning. DAL hasn’t lost a game with Rush @QB and the DAL DEF has been stopping teams cold. DAL was my BEST BET of the week on TWITTER and they didn’t disappoint. LW @ARZ, PHILLY got very lucky. PHILLY got out to a 14-0 lead but ARZ made some adjustments and fought back to tie the score at 17. PHILLY managed another fg and the score very late was PHILLY 20-17. However, ARZ was driving and with 2^nd and 10, ARZ QB Kyler Murray made a critical mistake that cost ARZ the game. He took off running and instead of sliding after the 1^st down line, he slid before, making it 3^rd down and then he spiked the ball stopping the clock, giving ARZ no choice but to kick a fg which went far right. A QB has to be fully aware of the lines and his surroundings. He had room for the 1^st down and I fully believe that ARZ would have scored the td and completed the upset. This was my upset pick of the week. ARZ still covered the +5 but ARZ should have won. PHILLY escaped with a win. L15 PHILLY(H) vs DAL, DAL 10-5 SUATS. L30 DAL vs PHILLY, RAD, 17-13 ATS. L30 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 15-15 ATS. L12 DAL vs PHILLY, DAL 8-4 SUATS. PHILLY since 2007, wk before bye, 11-4 ATS. PHILLY 7-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. PHILLY 12-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 34-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 21-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 42-38 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 10-18 ATS vs 666>conf opp. PHILLY 2-11 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. DAL 14-5-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DAL 20-20-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DAL 29-31-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 20-24 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. DAL 24-19-1 ATS L44 as a RD. DAL 2-6 ATS as a RD 5>pts off SU win vs opp w/revenge. 9-17 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. This game is a great matchup and both teams are fighting for the division lead in the NFC EAST. Right now, DAL QB Dak Prescott is slated to come back for this game but if he is not ready, Cooper Rush can continue @QB and get the job done. If I was DAL HC Mike McCarthy, I do not bring Prescott back unless he is 100%. Anything less and Prescott gets injured, McCarthy could lose his job. As for PHILLY, they escaped with one @ARZ but they have been playing very well. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts has definitely upped his game and his awareness on the field. In this game, PHILLY will try to establish the running game but DAL will shut it down and put it all on Hurts’s shoulders. As for the DAL OFF, Rush needs to spread it out because the PHILLY DEF is too talented for DAL to focus in on just a few guys. DAL did beat PHILLY both times in 2021 and there may be a revenge factor for PHILLY but there is too much at stake for DAL. This game will be closer than the spread and I like DAL here. It may come down to a fg at the end. Take the points.

DAL INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

TE Ian Bunting (Neck) Out, QB Dak Prescott (Thumb) Questionable, LB Damone Clark (Neck) Questionable, LS Jake McQuaide (Triceps) Out, LB Devante Bond (Knee) Out, OT Jason Peters (Chest) Questionable, OT Tyron Smith (Knee) Out, WR James Washington (Foot) Out, TE Dalton Schultz (Knee) Questionable, DE Tarell Basham (Thigh) Out, DT Quinton Bohanna (Shoulder) Questionable.

PHILLY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

K Jake Elliott (Ankle) Questionable, CB Avonte Maddox (Ankle) Questionable, RB Boston Scott (Rib) Questionable, LB Patrick Johnson (Concussion) Questionable, OT Brett Toth (Knee) Out, OT Jordan Mailata (Shoulder) Questionable, G Landon Dickerson (Leg) Questionable, OT Andre Dillard (Forearm) Questionable, TE Tyree Jackson (Knee (ACL)) Out, DE Derek Barnett (Knee) Out.

THE PICK: DAL+5

Monday October 17^th, 2022 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (2-3), (1-4) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ LA Chargers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                    DEN+5 ½  

LW, on TNF, DEN QB Russell Wilson looked awful. It didn’t help that the DEN OFF is stuck in reverse and DEN HC Nathaniel Hackett is in way over his head. DEN looks lost and Wilson looks like a bad rookie out there. He was pitiful on TNF when he should have been taking charge. Maybe the money got to his head. DEN lost in OT 12-9. DEN since 2007 off an SU OT loss, 3-2 ATS. A very boring game where DEN punted 5x, Wilson had 2 costly INTS and was sacked 4x. The play calling for DEN in the 4^th qtr was suspect and Wilson didn’t help matters by throwing rookie INTS to help INDY beat DEN. LW LAC @CLEV was a game that was lacking in DEF and made up for it on OFF. There was 908 total yds of OFF created by both teams. The only turnover in the game was 1INT by CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett. LAC got off lucky because CLEV missed 2fgs, one of which would have won the game for CLEV. LAC QB Justin Herbert is playing well but the LAC DEF can’t stop anyone. LAC #23 TOT DEF w/#25 RUSH DEF & #20 PASS DEF. LAC gave up 38 points vs JAGS, who scored a measely 6 points vs HOU! The OFF for LAC bailed the DEF out and LAC HC Brandon Staley made another blunder of a call at the end which almost cost LAC the game. He probably will not make any adjustments this week and move forward and then get surprised by DEN. L15 LAC(H) vs DEN, LAC 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS. L30 DEN vs LAC, ROAD 17-11-2 ATS. L30 LAC vs DEN, FAV 14-14-2 ATS. L14 DEN vs LAC, DEN 7-6-1 ATS. DEN 5-17 ATS on MNF off SU loss. DEN 1-7 ATS AWAY on MNF off SU FAV loss. DEN 7-14 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. DEN 3-11 ATS L14 on MNF. DEN 27-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 26-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 21-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 15-15-1 ATS L31 div ROAD gms. DEN 17-2 ATS w/rest off SU loss. DEN 18-2 ATS w/rest off SUATS loss. LAC 7-13 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAC 31-25 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 33-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 28-26 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LAC 9-8 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. LAC 2-13 ATS vs opp w/rest. Everybody is probably thinking that LAC is going to roll over DEN, DEN doesn’t know what they are doing, HC Hackett is terrible, etc. Yes, I agree with a lot of that but, the DEF for DEN is playing well. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#15 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. The DEF for DEN is the only thing keeping them around in games until the OFF finds its way. Also, Hackett should let Wilson call his own plays and that would help the OFF a lot. LAC typically doesn’t rush for 238 yds, so don’t look for them to do that vs DEN. Plus, w/o DE Joey Bosa, LAC DEF is much weaker. LAC had no sacks of CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett. Wilson should have all day unless the DEN O-LINE collapses. DEN needs to get their run game going so that Wilson doesn’t think he needs to win the game by himself. LAC gave up 213 combined yds rushing to CLEVE. This game will be closer than advertised and DEN will be very close, unless they get turnoveritous. If DEN can put together a good OFF game plan and execute, they could actually win big here. This is two average teams going at each, so take DEN & the points here.

DEN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

RB Damarea Crockett (ACL) Out, QB Russell Wilson (Shoulder) Questionable, OLB Randy Gregory (Knee) Out, S P.J. Locke (Concussion) Questionable, CB Michael Ojemudia (Elbow) Questionable, CB Darius Phillips (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Ronald Darby (ACL) Out, S Justin Simmons (Quad) Questionable, RB Javonte Williams (Knee) Out, OLB Christopher Allen (Foot) Out, LS Jacob Bobenmoyer (Hand) Out, ILB Josey Jewell (Knee) Questionable, OLB Jonathon Cooper (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Baron Browning (Wrist) Questionable, OL Tom Compton (Back) Out, OT Garett Bolles (Leg) Out, G Quinn Meinerz (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Tim Patrick (ACL) Out, OLB Aaron Patrick (Head) Questionable.

LAC INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)

K Dustin Hopkins (Quad) Questionable, WR Keenan Allen (Hamstring) Questionable, WR Jalen Guyton (Knee (ACL)) Out, TE Stone Smartt (Undisclosed) Out, LB Damon Lloyd (Undisclosed) Out, C Isaac Weaver (Undisclosed) Out, OT Andrew Trainer (Undisclosed) Out, OT Rashawn Slater (Biceps) Out, DL Forrest Merrill (Undisclosed) Out, OLB Joey Bosa (Groin) Out.

THE PICK: DEN+5 ½