2022 NFL SEASON WEEK 9
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 9 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, NY Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers & SF 49ers
Thursday November 3rd, 2022 8:15pm
Philadelphia Eagles (7-0), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-5-1), (4-3) ATS, (0-2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS HOU+14
LW, HOU QB Davis Mills, 17/29, 152yds 1td, 1INT. Mills did spread his passes out to nine different receivers but couldn’t get into the endzone until very late in the game. The running game was shut down by TENN. HOU rushed for a combined 43yds. The BIG story of that game was TENN RB Derrick Henry who single handily beat HOU. HOU had no answer for the big man and TENN didn’t need to see if QB Malik Willis could handle the pressure. LW, PHILLY @HOME destroyed PITT as they needed to do. You can’t give teams hope. PHILLY was up 28-10 in the 3rd qtr en route to a 35-13 win. PHILLY had 0turnovers and PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts passed 19/28, 285yds, 4TDS, 0INTS. Also, the DEF for PHILLY sacked PITT QB Kenny Pickett 6x. It was a total team effort on the part of PHILLY. L4 PHILLY vs HOU, PHILLY 4-0 SUATS. PHILLY 5-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. PHILLY 7-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PHILLY 7-2 ATS L9 on TNF. PHILLY 11-15 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 43-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 34-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 23-13 ATS vs AFC. PHILLY 2-10 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV off DD ATS win. PHILLY 4-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3>pts off DD ATS win. PHILLY 0-6 ATS before MNF. HOU 3-9-1 ATS on TNF & Thanksgivng. HOU 2-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. HOU 11-14 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. HOU 10-6 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. HOU 16-18 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 25-19-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 12-7-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 3-12 ATS L15 vs 750>opp. PHILLY cannot take HOU for granted or they will get buried. This may look like a trap game because all the pressure is on PHILLY and there is absolutely no pressure on HOU. No on expects HOU to even show up for this game. But stranger things have happened in the NFL. Just ask TB vs CAR a couple of weeks ago. HOU has some nice young players and RB Pierce is showing what he has and doing well but the team around him is terrible and HOU will not be good for a couple of years. PHILLY is steamrolling everyone. They had a little bit of a speedbump a few weeks ago @ARZ but they are back on track moving forward. Whether they come out strong on TNF or lame is anyone’s guess but it could be a trap, just ask CINNCY after MNF. PHILLY is going to be on full display for everyone on TNF. How they handle it will decide how teams handle them moving forward. HOU doesn’t have the horses to compete with PHILLY on either side of the ball. PHILLY #3 TOT OFF vs HOU #30 TOT DEF. PHILLY #3 TOT DEF vs HOU #31 TOT OFF. This is a contest of men vs boys. PHILLY SHOULD beat HOU 35-7. Newly acquired DE Robert Quinn should make an impact right away in this game. Look for some turnovers by HOU trying to make something out of nothing. Lay the points here.
PHILLY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
DE Derek Barnett (Knee) Out, TE Tyree Jackson (Knee (ACL)) Out, OT Brett Toth (Knee) Out, RB Trey Sermon (Gameday Inactive) Out, QB Ian Book (Gameday Inactive) Out, DE Tarron Jackson (Gameday Inactive) Out, DE Janarius Robinson (Ankle) Out, CB Josh Jobe (Shoulder) Out, S Reed Blankenship (Gameday Inactive) Out, G Josh Sills (Gameday Inactive) Out.
HOU INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS)
OL Justin Britt (Personal) Out, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Groin) Out, WR Chris Moore (Hip) Questionable, DE Derek Rivers (Bicep) Out, DB Tavierre Thomas (Quadriceps) Out, LB Blake Cashman (Head) Questionable, RB Darius Anderson (Knee) Out, DL Jonathan Greenard (Ankle) Questionable, TE Brevin Jordan (Ankle) Questionable, DL Michael Dwumfour (Undisclosed) Out, WR John Metchie III (Illness) Out, LB Christian Harris (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Teagan Quitoriano (Knee) Out, OL Austin Deculus (Knee) Questionable.
THE PICK: PHILLY-14
Sunday November 6th, 2022 1:00pm
LA Chargers (4-3), (3-4) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-4), (6-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS ATL+3 ½
LW, ATL won a game in OT that they probably shouldn’t of. I liked CAR+5 @ATL because with CAR QB PJ Walker, CAR never seems to give up. ATL won 37-34 in OT. ATL again showed they could run and they did for 167 yds combined. But they also gave up 169 yds rushing. ATL QB Marcus Mariota has this team winning and he had a pretty good day throwing 20/28, 253 yds 3tds but 2INTs. Fortunately for Mariota, his 2INTS didn’t turn into any pts for CAR. This game was a seesaw battle and I said in my analysis on this website that it would be a 3pt game. ATL 2-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. LAC is coming off a bye and before that they were manhandled @HOME by SEA. LAC played catchup the whole game as they were down 17-0 before LAC saw life. LAC has had a problem winning games this season. They only way LAC has won games is with the other team giving them gifts in the way of turnovers. If the other team doesn’t turn the ball over, LAC loses. In this game vs SEA, the LAC DEF couldn’t stop SEA QB Geno Smith from picking them apart. SEA did however have 1INT and 1 lost fumble. But the DEF for LAC was non-existent. SEA won 37-23 and it wasn’t even that close. L5 LAC vs ATL, LAC 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS. ROAD is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. LAC 6-9 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. LAC 11-10-2 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 9-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAC 26-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 35-24-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. ATL 10-9 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. ATL 2-12 AT in 2nd of BB HGs. ATL 30-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 32-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ATL 0-9 ATS before TNF. ATL 6-11 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. ATL 3-11 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. The LAC DEF looked good on paper but they have had a lot of injuries that have decimated the secondary. Personally, it was overrated even on paper and they do give up a lot of points. ATL has a rush heavy OFF and they will grind you down all day. ATL # 5 RUSH OFF vs LAC # 27 RUSH DEF. ATL is playing competitively and with the NFC SOUTH not having any clear dominant team, ATL could sneak into the playoffs. LAC OLB Khalil Mack who was brought in to sure up the DEF has been dead weight. He has 6 sacks but 3 of them were in wk 1. In the next six games, he had 3 sacks. With DE Joey Bosa out on IR, the D-LINE for LAC is putting no pressure on anyone. Also, LAC has no running game which puts everything on QB Justin Herbert. He is a very good QB but can’t do it alone. For ATL, they need to stop any chance of LAC getting their running game going. Take ATL and the points here as this time they win in regulation.
THE PICK: ATL+3 ½
Miami Dolphins (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-5), (2-5-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS CHI+5
LW, MIA needed to come back big @DET. They were a FAV-3 @DET and I liked them. But who knew they would need every point to win and cover? MIA won 31-27 and DET who can score but can’t defend, loses another one after leading big. MIA certainly has weapons on OFF & with WRs Waddle & Hill catching over 200yds in this game. LW, I liked CHI +10 ½ @DAL. I figured CHI would at least keep it close. They didn’t and lost 49-29. CHI was in catchup mode all game as DAL stormed out to a14-0 1st qtr lead. It was 28-7 in the 2nd qtr and the closest CHI got was DAL 28-23. After that the CHI DEF couldn’t stop DAL and it was DAL 42-23 going into the 4th qtr. CHI gave up 200yds rushing to DAL with 4tds and DAL QB DAK Prescott was 21/27 250 yds, 2TDS & 1INT. Prescott was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers. It also hurt CHI that RB David Montgomery had a fumble that was returned for a td. This was a big swing when the score was DAL 35-23 and CHI was driving. That made the score DAL 42-23. You can’t make mistakes when you play with the big boys. L4 CHI vs MIA, MIA 3-1 SUATS. CHI 14-15 ATS L29 as HOME DOG. CHI 6-10-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CHI 1-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGS vs non-div opp. CHI 43-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 31-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 19-8 ATS before DET. CHI 1-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs 750>opp. MIA 6-6 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 8-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MIA 40-31 ATS AWAY in NV. MIA 32-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI is coming of a BIG loss @DAL. I thought with the BIG Spread (+10 ½ ), they would end up closer. But they did not. This is a chance for them to show how they bounce back. MIA is coming off a catchup game on the road. Will they have to do it again? MIA has some great offensive weapons and Tua looks good. MIA #7 TOT OFF. Both of these teams made some trades during the week to upgrade their team. But CHI lost guys on DEF. Since last season, MIA has gone all in with upgrades. MIA also added RB Jeff Wilson that reunites with Mostert. A 1-2 punch at RB. CHI has gotten rid of some guys on DEF and added an OFF weapon for their QB. CHI #16 TOT DEF. Will the DEF keep up with new guys stepping up for the departed ones? With all the changes these two teams have made, I like MIA to win by a td. MIA will exploit the wholes that were created when CHI traded their guys. MIA needs to be aware that CHI will run first and heavy before passing the ball. The addition of WR Chase Claypool for CHI will pay dividends soon but not in this game. CHI is showing that they will give Fields the support he needs. He already has RBs, now he needs WRs. MIA has newly acquired LB Bradley Chubb in there to make some noise. We’ll see if he responds. MIA should spread their OFF around to keep the CHI DEF guessing. CHI is in a bounceback but MIA has too many weapons that will show off this week. CHI will come up short.
THE PICK: MIA-5
Carolina Panthers (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-4), (5-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS CAR+7 ½
LW on MNF, CINNCY looked like they hadn’t won a game in two years. At one point, they were down 25-0 @CLEV. The final score was 32-13 and it wasn’t even that close. CINNCY started the opening drive moving down the field but, a tip ball landed for an INT for CLEV and it was all downhill from there for CINNCY. It shows that CINNCY does miss, WR Ja’Marr Chase who was out for this game and will be out for some time with a bad hip. The O-LINE for CINNCY regressed and CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was sacked 5x and hurried many times. The CINNCY run game was almost nil and Burrow threw the ball 35x. Plus, the CINNCY DEF gave up 172 yards combined rushing to CLEV & 3TDS. The CINNCY DEF couldn’t make a stop all night when they needed it and this game turned into a blowout. Also, the CINNCY secondary was terrible and to make matters worse they may have lost CB Chidobe Awuzie for the rest of the season with an ACL tear. LW, CAR was in a seesaw battle @ATL. I said the game would be a 3pt game and I liked CAR+5. CAR RB D’Onta Foreman has been revitalized with the departure of CMC and has rushed for over 100 yds in the last two games. He ran for 118 vs ATL and took a lot of pressure off of QB PJ Walker who is certainly making the most of his opportunity. This game went back and forth but, if CAR WR DJ Moore would have calmed himself down instead of acting like a dope, CAR would have been able to kick the extra point from the regular spot and won outright. Instead, because of an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, CAR was penalized 15yds on the extra point. CAR missed the extra point, went into OT, missed a fg and ATL won 37-34. CAR 2-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. Guys are stepping up for CAR and it shows. L4 CAR vs CINNCY, CAR 1-2-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. CAR 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CAR 29-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 26-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 7-9 ATS before ATL. CAR 7-6 ATS after ATL. CAR 2-10 ATS as a RD 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 5-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 12-8 ATS off div gm vs 500>opp. CINNCY 21-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CINNCY 34-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 19-18-2 AT after an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 5-6 ATS after CLEV. CINNCY 5-6-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV. CINNCY 3-9 ATS @HOME off SU DIV loss. CAR is feeling loose because they have nothing to lose. No one expects them to win or battle for anything in the NFC SOUTH. But, there is talent on that team and guys are playing for jobs. CINNCY is in a serious bounceback situation but their O-LINE is terrible and QB Joe’s favorite target is out and the OFF shows. Plus, the run game for CINNCY is an after thought. CINNCY #30 RUSH OFF vs CAR #23 RUSH DEF. Even though CAR may be weak vs the run, CINNCY has shown that even against a team that is weak vs the run, they can’t get it going. It’s not in their cards. CINNCY 8-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CINNCY will bounceback here but not like the game they had vs ATL. CAR is also on a bounceback because they beat themselves with stupidity and they are playing everyone tight no matter who. This game will have some turnovers and the game will be a 3pt contest. I would be very surprised IF CAR gets blownout. Take CAR & the points here.
THE PICK: CAR+7 ½
GB Packers (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (1-6), (3-4) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS DET+3 ½
LW, on SNF the only reason the final score was as close as it was, BUFF 27-17, is because BUFF was sloppy. However, GB showed that BUFF can be rushed on and they did for 208yds. The BUFF DEF couldn’t stop GB from running and GB capitalized on it. GB also capitalized on BUFF QB Josh Allen’s 2INTs that resulted in 7pts. BUFF was up 24-7 at the half in this game but two things happened in the 2nd half. BUFF was lax and GB made some adjustments. GB went to their run game because for the most part, the passing game wasn’t working. GB WR Romeo Doubs made a great catch on a pass from GB QB Aaron Rodgers which had the score at BUFF 14-7 in the 2nd qtr. GB missed a fg which would have made the score BUFF 27-20 and that was the game. LW, DET was @HOME vs MIA. MIA was -3 and I liked them. Even though DET was coming off the loss @DAL, MIA was coming off their own bounceback situation barely beating MIA @HOME. Anyway, DET has a horrible DEF. DET was up 21-7 & 27-17 before giving up the lead and the game 31-27. DET QB Jared Goff had a nice game, 27/37 321yds, 1td, 0turnovers. But the DET DEF couldn’t stop MIA WRs Hill & Waddle who both had over 100yds receiving. He is not the problem as he may have found a long term home in DET. Goff is holding his own on a team that is going nowhere. He is prone to pressure but he has RBs that he can rely on. L15 DET(H) vs GB, DET 6-9 SU & 8-7 ATS. L30 DET vs GB, DET 15-14-1 ATS. L20 DET vs GB, HOME 11-8-1 ATS. L20 DET vs GB, FAV 11-8-1 ATS. DET 17-23 ATS L40 as HOME DOG. DET 8-4-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DET 34-39 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 28-51 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 27-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 13-19-1 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. GB 27-23 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 30-39 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 38-39 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB found their running game LW @BUFF. Good thing because now they play a team that had a terrible DEF and Rodgers knows he won’t have to put the ball up 50x. GB #15 RUSH OFF vs DET # 30 RUSH DEF. DET fired their DB coach during the week. It actually doesn’t matter because he wasn’t out there on the field. The OFF for DET can score points, that is not the problem. Their DEF can’t make any stops. DET #32 TOT DEF. Rodgers is very familiar with playing @DET. Goff is starting to get used to playing GB & Rodgers. But DET needs to clamp down on DEF or otherwise the season will be a total loss. GB is on a bounceback with new resilience in their run game and they are going to run all day @DET. Don’t be surprised if GB WR Romeo Doubs sees more passes. DET has a 5game losing streak but it will not be broken this week. Lay the points here as GB breaks their 4game losing streak.
THE PICK: GB-3 ½
Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1), (3-5) ATS, (1-2-1) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ NE Patriots (4-4), (5-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS INDY+5 ½
LW, INDY was @HOME -3 vs WASH. I loved WASH +3 because INDY was playing with QB Sam Ehlinger who never threw a pass in the NFL. He didn’t do too badly going 17/23 201yds 0TDS but 1 lost fumble. Luckily it didn’t turn into points. INDY was able to get their run game going for 135yds & 1td which took pressure off of Ehlinger. However, with the score INDY 16-10, WASH put together a drive that had WASH QB Heinicke sneak in for a 1ytd score and a 17-16 win. It was a sloppy game for both teams but WASH came out ahead. LW, NE was @NYJ. I said NE HC Bill Belichick takes special pride in beating up the NYJ. NYJ QB Zach Wilson was forced into 3INTS which NE turned into 6pts. NE QB Mac Jones had 1INT but it didn’t turn into points for NYJ. This was a sloppy game on both sides and NYJ were leading 10-6 at halftime but, missed opportunities by NYJ and some good defense by NE culminated in a NE 22-17 win. The score was NE 22-10 when NYJ added a dummy td that made the score close. NE QB Mac Jones wasn’t exceptional in this game but the combined rushing of the RBs for 108 yds helped take pressure off his shoulders. L13 INDY vs NE, NE 8-5 SU but 5-7-1 ATS. INDY 8-9-3 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. INDY 39-20 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 35-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 26-9-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU loss. INDY 15-7 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 14-4-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. INDY 12-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. NE 30-26-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 36-38-3 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 34-17-3 ATS (H) vs non-div. NE 9-4 ATS after NYJ. NE 18-2 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. NE 5-7 AT vs non-div conf opp off BB SU losses. INDY is still looking for that decent QB since Andrew Luck retired at the end of the 2018 season. They haven’t found any successors to the positions and they have had four different starting QBs for those four seasons. Maybe Ehlinger will be different but he needs some time and some decent guys around him. Trading RB Nyheim Hines away doesn’t help Ehlinger because he can catch as well as run. Right now, guys need to step up so that Ehlinger doesn’t have the whole game on his shoulders. A good running game helps. INDY isn’t going anywhere this season so he should get some time to iron out any kinks. NE had a little QB controversy going but, it looks like Mac Jones will be the starter with Bailey Zappe backing up. But Jones shouldn’t get too comfortable as Zappe has already proven himself to be reliable in an emergency situation. Jones looked decent against NYJ last week but, he needs to keep playing well to secure the position for the long haul. NE will see NYJ again after their bye. NE 9-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. I like NE here laying the points because now NE can get back to business with beating up brand new QBs and mediocre teams. However, NE needs to keep spreading the ball around so the OFF will not be stagnated and keeps opposing DEFs guessing. If Ehlinger was a seasoned pro I would like INDY in this game but since this is his 2nd NFL game, I have to go with NE.
THE PICK: NE-5 ½
Buffalo Bills (6-1), (4-2-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ NY Jets (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS NYJ+13
LW, NYJ were HOME vs NE. NE HC Bill Belichick takes pride in beating the NYJ. NYJ HC Robert Saleh has experienced this 3x. NYJ were actually up 10-6 at halftime but NYJ QB Zach Wilson didn’t get the memo. He threw 3INTS. Fortunately they resulted only in 6pts for NE. NE went out to a 22-10 lead and it was catchup mode for NYJ. NYJ got a dummy td at the end to close a gap but not the game. NYJ lost 22-17. NYJ also had a missed fg. It was a sloppy game for NYJ all around. Now they face BUFF. LW, BUFF was @HOME vs GB. The spread was BUFF-10 ½ and this game had the makings of a blowout. It was BUFF 24-7 at the half and BUFF looked in total control. Well, they took the foot off the gas and gave GB some hope. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw 2INTS in the 2nd half and BUFF ended up winning 27-17. The BUFF DEF gave up over 200yds rushing as GB made a game of it in the 2nd half. The spread was blown by ½ pt. L15 NYJ(H) vs BUFF, NYJ 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS. L25 NYJ vs BUFF, BUFF 13-12 SUATS. L21 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 13-8 ATS. L25 NYJ vs BUFF, FAV 13-11 ATS 1 PICK’EM. NYJ 21-23-1 ATS L45 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 9-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYJ 36-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 25-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 31-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 27-27-1 ATS L55 as a DOG 7>pts. BUFF 12-13 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 24-28-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 31-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 26-33-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 18-12 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. LW, BUFF showed that they could be run on if you take the time to do it. GB rushed for over 200 yds and almost came close because BUFF eased up on both sides of the ball. NYJ certainly have the runners to get the job done with RBs Michael Carter & James Robinson. But, they don’t have Aaron Rodgers @QB. BUFF # 4 RUSH DEF. NYJ will hit a wall this week and it will not have anything to do with their own mistakes. BUFF is coming off a game where Allen said that he made mistakes from his usual game. He said he was going to correct them. That shows a winner who is looking to improve even after a win. How many QBs would say that after a win? Not many. I give a lot of credit to NYJ HC Robert Saleh. He has a tough job on a team that tends to lose a lot and not know what to do about it. After losing LW, now he faces a BUFF team that is looking to improve after a win. Can it get any worse? Do you think the NYJ know they are a BIG DOG @HOME? NYJ have bounced back nicely after their first two loses this season but, this game is a tough task vs a BUFF team that is on a mission. Last season in wk 10, BUFF was -12 @NYJ. BUFF won the game 45-17. Zach Wilson didn’t play in that game. This was after BUFF had just lost @JAGS 9-6. Last week felt like a loss for BUFF and they are making adjustments. I see the BUFF DEF pressuring Wilson all game and him making mistakes. NYJ 9-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. I see another blowout here. Lay the points.
THE PICK: BUFF-13
Minnesota Vikings (6-1), (4-2-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS WASH+3 ½
LW, WASH was @INDY and they didn’t give up. I liked WASH +3 @INDY because they seem to be playing better w/ QB Taylor Heinicke instead of Wentz. Also, INDY started a QB that had never thrown a pass in the NFL. WASH was leading this game into the 4th qtr, 7-6. INDY took a 16-7 lead but WASH then kicked a fg to make it INDY 16-10 and it looked like WASH might go down to defeat. But WASH didn’t give up. They held INDY to three plays and got the ball back. WASH drove nine plays for 89yards for a td and won the game 17-16. WASH rushed for a combined 96yds but gave up 135 yds to INDY. WASH didn’t give up but, they played an INDY team that has problems of its own. LW, MINN was in a sea saw battle @HOME vs ARZ. I liked ARZ+3 ½ in this game because ARZ was due and MINN is vulnerable because their wins are against mediocre teams. MINN QB Kirk Cousins had 1 lost fumble which turned into 3pts for ARZ. Overall Cousins played a decent game. He didn’t force anything and took what the ARZ DEF gave him. MINN RB Dalvin Cook rushed for 111yds 1td on 20 carries. MINN rushed for a combined 173yds and 3tds which took a lot of pressure off of Cousins. ARZ had 2 of their 3 turnovers turn into 14 MINN pts. One fumble by MINN did turn into 3pts by ARZ. But, the final score was MINN 34-26. L11 MINN vs WASH, MINN 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS. MINN 19-7 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 7-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. MINN 32-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 33-38 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 9-6 ATS L15 vs NFC EAST. WASH 17-18 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. WASH 42-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 28-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 13-4 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 7-1 ATS as a HD <6pts vs 600>opp. WASH 112-13 ATS as a HD vs .400opp. WASH 9-4 ATS as a HD vs 600>opp. MINN has become a softer team outside in the elements since they went inside in the dome. MINN 4-8 SU & 6-6 ATS L12 AWAY vs non-div outdoors. If you look at MINN’s record, who have they beaten? LW, they won because of a turnover, otherwise they would have lost. Their wins are GB, DET, @NO, CHI, @MIA & ARZ. GB was personal and the 1st game of the season. DET, NO & CHI, no big deal. MIA was vs a 3rd string QB. ARZ was the recipient of turnovers. WASH falls into the no big deal category. WASH has addition by subtraction. Yes, they beat CHI on TNF w/QB Carson Wentz but the next two games I liked them w/QB Taylor Heinicke as they beat GB & they won @INDY. Plus, the WASH DEF is no slouch. WASH #13 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. This is decent considering how the season started out. Cousins is due for a bad game and this might be the game. I’m thinking that MINN is taking WASH lightly and may even make some mistakes that could turn into WASH points. All the pressure is on MINN because WASH isn’t really going anywhere and MINN is trying to get to the playoffs. WASH has to play flawless this week to win. WASH has been playing well but against good teams they haven’t played well. MINN should win this game easily at the end. WASH will play tight for a while but MINN will make adjustments and turn on the talent when needed. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MINN-3 ½
LV Raiders (2-5), (3-4) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Jacksonville Jags (2-6), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS JAGS+1 ½
LW, LV went to NO and couldn’t get into the endzone. In fact they couldn’t get their running game going either, rushing for a total of 38 yds. LV RB Josh Jacobs was held to 43yds. For LV, it came down to execution and they couldn’t get it done when they needed it and punted 5x. On the other hand, NO got it done and beat LV, 24-0. No fist pumping for LV QB Derek Carr this week. LV WR Davante Adams had 1 catch for 3yds. The DEF for LV gave up a combined 126 rushing yards. They also couldn’t stop NO RB Alvin Kamara who rushed for 1td and caught 2tds. LW, in London, JAGS played a game where they were leading 10-0 but couldn’t do anything with it. It seems like that is a recurring story with the JAGS. JAGS had five straight possessions with punts as DEN then took the lead. This was anybody’s game in the 4th qtr as the lead changed hands but DEN scored a td with 1:43 left and JAGS lost 21-17. It didn’t help that JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence threw and INT on the ensuing drive that ended the game for JAGS. Fortunately, the 2INTS that were thrown by Lawrence in this game did not result in points for DEN. JAGS RB Travis Etienne had 156 yards rushing, 1td on 24 carries. JAGS had a total of 191yards on the ground in the losing cause. L7 LV vs JAGS, JAGS 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. LV 2-9-2 ATS L13 as ROAD FAV. LV 11-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LV 37-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 20-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LV 13-7 ATS L20 AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. LV 6-3 ATS L9 after scoring 7<pts. LV 3-14-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <500 opp. LV 10-5 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LV 2-16-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU Losses. LV 0-12 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 1-11 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 10-9 ATS vs .333<conf opp. JAGS 18-20 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 25-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 28-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 6-12 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. JAGS 4-18 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 4-13 ATS L17 vs AFC WEST. JAGS 5-2 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. LV’s 2wins this season have been vs HOU & DEN, a big so what. As for JAGS, their 2wins have been vs INDY & @LAC. Neither LV or JAGS are going anywhere fast. In fact there are serious questions that both of these organizations should be considering in the off-season. JAGS are the bigger disappointment here because they started out 2-1 and have lost 5 straight. LV started out 0-3 and have gone 2-2 in their last 4games. On paper LV is the better team but it has not translated to the field. The JAGS problem is that they can’t hold any type of lead. For LV to have any chance in this game, they must stop JAGS RB Travis Etienne from getting any traction. LV #10 RUSH DEF vs JAGS #7 RUSH OFF. LV has to step up their PASS OFF. JAGS #22 PASS DEF. JAGS HC Doug Pederson will get some time to turn the JAGS around. LV HC Josh McDaniels will not get time because he wasn’t a successful HC in his 1st go round. LV should win this game outright in a game that means nothing. Get ready for another fist pump from LV QB Derek Carr.
THE PICK: LV-1 ½
Sunday November 6th, 2022 4:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS SEA+2
LW at @MINN, I liked ARZ+3 ½ because I felt that maybe ARZ turned the corner with their TNF @HOME vs NO. They capitalized on NO mistakes and the momentum would carry over @MINN. Well, mistakes followed ARZ. They could have and should have won @MINN but because of 2INTS & 1 lost fumble that turned into 14MINN pts, the game was lost. With ARZ trailing 28-26, MINN punted. But the return man for ARZ fumbled deep in ARZ territory and four plays later MINN scored an easy TD to make it, 34-26. Murray threw an INT on the ensuing drive and ARZ still had a chance but then turned it over on downs. Was MINN really that good or is ARZ really that bad? ARZ WR DeAndre Hopkins continues to be Murray’s favorite target, snagging 12 passes for 159yds and 1td. But the DEF for ARZ couldn’t stop the MINN rushing attack for 173yds and 3tds. LW, SEA was @HOME vs NYG. I liked SEA -3 because SEA has been playing well and SEA is a tough place to play. SEA has found a gem in RB Kenneth Walker and he gave just enough in this game so that the passing game for SEA could open up. SEA QB Geno Smith spread the ball around to nine different receivers and threw 23/34 212yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. The SEA DEF kept NYG RB Saquon Barkley in check and that in turn put pressure on NYG QB Daniel Jones to make some throws he did not want to. Jones didn’t turn the ball over but he was forced to do more. The turning point of the game was when SEA was up 20-13 and SEA was punting. NYG PR Ritchie James muffed the punt and SEA recovered in NYG territory. SEA took two plays to get into the endzone and SEA was up 27-13 and that was your ballgame. L15 ARZ(H) vs SEA, ARZ 6-8-1 SU & 5-8-2 ATS. L25 ARZ vs SEA, SEA 13-10-2 ATS. L18 ARZ vs SEA, ROAD 14-3-1 ATS. ARZ 27-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 16-18 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ARZ 27-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 19-8 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 21-7-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 7-4 ATS as a FAV off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. SEA 9-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SEA 28-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 27-21 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 25-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 14-3-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 12-2 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. The DEF for SEA is getting better every week. Earlier in the season, SEA PASS DEF was #32. Now SEA PASS DEF is #21. That’s a BIG Difference. Murray keeps making mistakes when he keeps trying to make something out of nothing and force the ball in there. He will keep losing games if he stays the course. Sometimes you need to eat it or throw it away. In college you can get away with that because you are not playing top talent at every position. But in the NFL teams pick up on your tendencies and study film so that they know your every move. ARZ has been hard to predict week to week because you don’t really know which team will show up. ARZ is not really that good. For SEA to win this game, they have to come out like gangbusters and keep scoring, their DEF has to keep putting pressure on Murray as he will make mistakes when the pressure is on or if ARZ is trailing badly. He will try to make something out of nothing and that spells disaster. Geno is showing everyone that the other teams were wrong. He is playing well and not forcing things. He is reading DEFs and making the right choices. He is throwing the ball away if nothing is open. Geno only has 1lost fumble this season which is HUGE. He is giving SEA every opportunity to win. A few weeks ago in SEA, SEA beat ARZ 19-9. It seemed like nothing went right for ARZ and SEA kept things at bay. I like SEA here going for the sweep as the ROAD team usually does well in this series and SEA is on a roll and will make some plays. The hope for Geno is to stay the course and the DEF to create some turnovers.
THE PICK: SEA+2
LA Rams (3-4), (2-5) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (3-5), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS LAR+3
LW, SF @LAR and it was the RB Christian McCaffrey show. He threw for a td, ran for a td and caught a td. The only thing this guy didn’t do vs the LAR is sell peanuts. LAR DEF couldn’t contain him and LAR lost 31-14 after leading 14-10. The no-run RAMS rushed for a total of 56yds as LAR QB Matthew Stafford was sacked 2x but did not commit any turnovers. The SF DEF held LAR to 4punts in the 2nd half. LAR WR Cooper Cupp did hurt his ankle in this one but should be ready for TB. LAR continues with their OFF woes as they managed 0pts in the 2nd half while giving 21pts. LW on TNF, the end score may have been close, 27-22 but the game really wasn’t that close. BALT had a missed fg to end the 2nd qtr & TB was ahead 10-3 at the half but was barely holding on. On four straight possessions in the 2nd half, BALT scored 3tds and a fg to make the score 27-16 late in the 4th qtr. TB added a td but that’s all she wrote and the score ended 27-22. BALT rushed for a combined 231 yds on 33 touches while TB rushed for a combined 44yds. The TB DEF better get cracking because TB HC Todd Bowles is usually good with the DEF but it seems they can be beaten with ease this season by anybody. BALT dialed up 453yds of TOT OFF on TB. L11 LAR vs TB, LAR 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS. LAR 17-40-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 26-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 26-22-1 ATS L49 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 5-0 ATS as a DOG off DIV ATS loss. LAR 9-6 ATS after an SU loss. LAR 8-3 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. TB 10-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TB 33-28-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 27-25 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 1-14 ATS as a FAV off BB SU losses. Both of these teams are messes for almost some of the same reasons. Both have no run game. TB #32 RUSH OFF. LAR #31 RUSH OFF. Both teams have a very weak O-LINE. Stafford has been sacked 24x. Brady as been sacked 13x. Brady’s total may not sound high but he is being rushed more than usual and getting less time in the pocket. As I said before and on the Dr. Roto show, this past Friday night, Stafford is not playing with same intensity and urgency as he was playing with last season. Just watch him during the game. The DEF for LAR is getting picked apart and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. TB will win this game for revenge factors going back to the loss they suffered vs LAR in the playoffs last season. But moving forward, TB is going to get worse. Their schedule is not that easy and Brady will retire after the season. LAR HC Sean McVay is not a good coach and LAR will lose this one. Both teams have a DEF that can take over a game but look for LAR to commit some turnovers. Even though both teams are on a bounceback here, LAR doesn’t travel well and TB should win by seven pts.
THE PICK: TB-3
Sunday November 6th, 2022 8:20pm
Tennessee Titans (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (5-2), (3-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (0-3) ATS TENN+12 ½
LW, it was the TENN RB Derrick Henry show. He rushed for 219yds & 2tds as TENN beat HOU @HOU, 17-10. TENN QB Malik Willis threw only 10x and TENN went with a rush heavy OFF that rushed for 45x and a combined rushing total of 314yds. Granted this was against HOU who can’t stop anyone. Willis had an INT in his ten throws and only completed 6passes for 55yds. His 1INT did turn into 3pts by HOU. HOU got a dummy td late in the game after trailing 17-3. But, this was HOU and they are terrible and going nowhere. Now a real test for TENN. Before their bye, KC spotted SF a 10-0 lead before taking control of the game and beating them 44-23. KC QB Pat Mahomes took over in that game and SF was playing catchup all afternoon. Everyone was involved as Mahomes threw for 423yds,3TDS & 1INT. He spread the ball around to 8receivers. The KC rushing game went for a combined 112yds and 3tds. The KC DEF also made plays with 5sacks, 2INTS & 1 recovered fumble. L8 TENN vs KC, TENN 5-3 SUATS. KC 8-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 9-7 ATS @HOME on SNF. KC 16-10 ATS as a FAV ion SNF. KC 32-48 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 27-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 11-9-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. TENN 6-5 ATS AWAY on SNF. TENN 8-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. TENN 36-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 31-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 10-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins (last vs div) vs non-div. Derrick Henry is a one-man wrecking crew and TENN is just getting started. TENN may not win pretty but they are winning and that’s all that matters. This game is a test for TENN because in their 5game win streak, they haven’t really beaten anyone. They beat LV, @INDY, @WASH, bye, vs INDY & @HOU. Not exactly a who’s who of playoff teams. TENN started out the season getting beaten in a comeback win by NYG & slaughtered @BUFF, 41-7. Since then, TENN has only given up 20 points once. TENN #15 TOT DEF is legit but this week will be their big test. TENN needs to show that they are for real. KC is coming off a bye. KC 7-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. KC has been so-so after a rest and they may be a little sluggish in this one. The DEF for TENN has to play like the BUFF DEF did a few weeks ago vs KC. They cannot let Mahomes have his way. He will get his throws but TENN cannot let him get to comfortable and have time to pick their DEF apart. TENN needs to make Mahomes uncomfortable on almost every play. This game will be closer than the spread suggests if TENN is to make a statement. TENN can’t beat KC if they only throw the ball 10x. Tannehill has a sprained ankle and is questionable for this game. Welcome to the NFL, Malik Willis. There may be a little revenge in this for KC as TENN beat KC last season in wk 7 @TENN 27-3. I like TENN with the points but I don’t know if they can win. I only like TENN if Tannehill is starting. If Willis is in there, I like KC laying the points. KC HC Andy Reid will throw the kitchen sink at the young QB and he will get eaten up. Tannehill is better having been here before. KC #30 PASS DEF. Tannehill will know what to do and this is a playoff game.
SUNDAY 11/6/2022; 7:30 pmWILLIS tonight for TENN @QB. Take KC, lay the points.
THE PICK: KC-12 ½
Monday November 7th, 2022 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (5-3), (3-4-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NO Saints (3-5), 92-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NO+3
LW, on TNF BALT made plays @TB to take control of the game in the 2nd half. TB was leading 10-3 but the BALT DEF made TB punt in their first 2possesions of the 2nd half. BALT in turn scored tds in their first two possessions and were leading 17-10. From there both teams exchanged scores and BALT won 27-22. TB had scored a td in their last possession to make the score close but, BALT had this game in control by scoring on all their possessions in the 2nd half. The BALT DEF held the TB running game to 44yds. BALT rushed for a combined 231yds on 33 carries and 1td. BALT did not turn the ball over which was crucial. You do not want to give TB QB Tom Brady any extra possessions in which to score. LW, NO @HOME vs LV, it was all NO. LV couldn’t find the endzone at all and NO won 24-0. NO RB Alvin Kamara scored 3td and rushed for 126yds. NO had 0turnovers. NO QB Andy Dalton had a nice game with 0turnovers and spread the ball to 8different receivers which kept the LV DEF guessing all game. The NO DEF was also able to sack LV QBs 4x. Dalton had almost no pressure on him as we sacked 0x. This game was NO17-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. L4 NO vs BALT, BALT 3-1 SUATS. NO 1-8 ATS L9 @HOME vs AFC NORTH. NO 1-3 ATS as a HOME in 2022. NO 8-6-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. NO 12-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NO 4-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs vs non-div opp. NO 10-12 ATS on MNF. NO 1-7 ATS L8 on MNF. NO 31`-30-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 31-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NO 11-16-1 ATS L28 @HOME vs AFC. NO 13-4 ATS L17 off SU DOG win. NO 9-9 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 3-8 ATS off DD SU win vs <500 non-div opp. BALT 13-14-1 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 9-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BALT 9-2 ATS vs NFC on MNF. BALT 5-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BALT 2-7 ATS AWAY on MNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 40-30-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 33-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 13-17-1 ATS L31 vs NFC. BALT 12-3 ATS w/rest vs non-div. BALT 12-4 ATS as a FAV >1pts w/rest. BALT 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NO QB Andy Dalton knows BALT very well from his days in CINNCY. NO could win this game but they probably will not. BALT has a lot to play for and so does QB Jackson. They have had a nice rest since their last game. BALT needs to put a nice string of wins together so they can make sure that they win the AFC NORTH. CINNCY is the only real threat in the division and they don’t see them until week 18. As for NO, they need to see who will help this team long term and discard those players that are dragging them down. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs NO #14 RUSH DEF. This will be the matchup that will be looked at. BALT needs to establish the run so that Jackson can drop some passes in. NO has a habit of turning the ball over. NO has the worst turnover differential in the NFL @-1.1. BALT is #3 @+0.8. Also, BALT cannot let NO get their running game going. BALT should win this game by a td.
THE PICK: BALT-3