2022 NFL SCHEDULE WILD CARD WKND (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 14^th, 2023 4:35pm

(7) Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ (2) San Francisco 49ers (13-4)     SEA+10

SF is on a roll. Since their bye after wk 8, SF went 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS. Plus, they have a QB in Brock Purdy that makes you forget all about Jimmy G & Trey Lance. Mr.  Irrelevant has not only stepped into the position very nicely but has weathered the pressure as a rookie vs fierce competition. In his six games, he has 13tds & 4INTs. These two teams met is wk2 @SF with SF winning 27-7. In that game Trey Lance was injured and Jimmy G came in @QB but, it was the DEF for SF that was the star. SEA didn’t score any points on OFF but scored their only td on a blocked fg. SF ran all over SEA and that was when they hadn’t acquired RB Christian McCaffrey from CAR yet. This game was over at the half 20-0 and the SF DEF had 2INTs and a recovered fumble. The 2^nd time these two teams met was in wk 15 @SEA on TNF. In this game SF ran out to a 21-3 lead before SEA tried unsuccessfully at a comeback. SF could have easily scored 35pts in this game but let up a little. The final score was SF 21-13. This is the matchup I like for SF, SF #5 TOT OFF w/#8 RUSH OFF w/ #13 PASS OFF vs SEA #26 TOT DEF w/#30 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. SF has the ability to score many different ways with many different players. They can beat you with run which SEA has proven over the course of the season that they can’t stop. SF has talented receivers that don’t drop passes. Plus, if you put a defender on CMC you leave someone else wide open. Brock Purdy has shown that he can take the pressure but, can he lead this team to the promised land? The only area where SF is deficient is their PASS DEF. SF #20 PASS DEF. This is an area where SF has to make sure that they tighten up SEA QB Geno Smith has had a nice comeback season and has had some very good games this season. It looks like he will be the starting QB for SEA wk 1 of the 2023 season. But SEA’s problems are that their DEF is a shell of what it once was during the “Legion of Boom”. They are a very young DEF and they make mistakes. They are learning but they will not be able to handle what the SF OFF brings. Lay the points here because SF will not let up in this one. It has blowout written all over it. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: SF-10

Saturday January 14^th, 2023 8:15pm

(5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (4) Jacksonville Jaguars             JAGS+1

LAC HC Brandon Staley is showing everyone why he doesn’t deserve to be a head coach in the NFL. With nothing to gain in wk 18 and the playoff seeding for LAC in stone, Staley played starters that are susceptible to injury. LAC WR Mike Williams left the game with what appeared to be a back injury and LB Kenneth Murray suffered a stinger. Also, DE Joey Bosa was seen limping out of the game. With the way Staley coaches a game, LAC can’t afford to lose anyone and have them miss a playoff game. These two teams met in wk 3 @LAC and JAGS smacked LAC 38-10. In that game LAC QB Justin Herbert had a 1INT & 1 lost fumble that led to 10pts for the JAGS. The score was only JAGS 16-7 at the half but, the DEF for LAC was non existent as JAGS scored 3tds on 3possessions in the 2^nd half. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence had a very nice game vs LAC going 28/39, 262yds, 3tds & 0INTS. At the time, James Robinson was the starting RB and he rushed for 100yds. Travis Etienne has stepped up and Robinson is gone but JAGS have a run game that can be relied on so that Lawrence doesn’t feel that he has to win this game on his own. You never know what kind of play you are going to get from LAC because of the way, Staley coaches. His whole game plan is suspect and he is wasting a very talented QB in Justin Herbert. Just when you think LAC should win big, they falter badly. I like the JAGS here at HOME and the place will be rocking. JAGS HC Doug Pederson will throw plays at LAC that they have never seen and it will surprise them. Pederson is a SuperBowl winning coach and he had some trick plays that he used in the SuperBowl vs NE and he surprised them and was successful. Look for some trick plays here that put LAC on their backs. This should be a good game but I like JAGS to win outright. The team will be pumped up and the fans will be excited. Turnovers will be costly in this game. Take the JAGS.    

THE PICK: JAGS+1

Sunday January 15^th, 2023 1:05pm

(7) Miami Dolphins @ (2) Buffalo Bills                                     MIA+10 ½

These two teams met 2x in the regular season with MIA winning 21-19 in wk 3 @MIA. In that game, the MIA DEF frustrated BUFF QB Josh Allen into making some hurried throws. BUFF still had a shot to win the game at the end but couldn’t spike the ball before time ran out to at least kick a fg. I liked MIA+5 ½ in that game because MIA was looking good on both sides of the ball and at the time MIA looked like a legitimate threat to BUFF. In wk 15 @BUFF, MIA played their hearts out in a snow storm but lost 32-29. I also liked MIA+7 ½ in this game because if MIA wanted to save their season, they needed to either win or keep it close here. MIA played their hearts out with Tua Tagovailoa @QB but they couldn’t get the victory. The run game for MIA was clicking as they rushed for 188yds, 1td on 25 carries. But BUFF also got their run game going for 150yds on 29 carries. MIA was up 26-21 going into the 4^th qtr but BUFF upped their game and scored 11pts in the 4^th qtr while MIA could only manage a fg. For this game, QB Tua Tagovailoa has not been cleared by doctors to return to the field and has been ruled out for this game. Skyler Thompson will be starting for MIA @QB. Backing him u will be Teddy Bridgewater who has also suffered a concussion and a finger injury that has limited his playing time. The MIA’s DEF is not as good as they appear and seem to disappear at times. LW, MIA barely beat a NYJ team that couldn’t get out of its own way. How will they play @BUFF? MIA #18 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF & #27 PASS DEF. BUFF #5 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. BUFF #2 TOT OFF. MIA #6 TOT OFF. DE Bradley Chubb who was acquired from DEN and signed to a big money extension has been a disappointment so far. He had 2 ½ sacks in 8 games with 13 tackles @MIA this season and seemed to disappear at times. The key for BUFF in this game is shutting down Thompson @QB and not letting him get comfortable to see what’s coming and drop the ball of to one of MIA’s OFF weapons. MIA showed LW that they could run. They rushed for 162yds on 32carries but BUFF will be pumped and if CB Damar Hamlin is there to talk to the team, the adrenaline will be flowing BIG TIME for BUFF. I could easily see BUFF winning by 2tds in this one. Take BUFF.

THE PICK: BUFF-10 ½

Sunday January 15^th, 2023 4:40pm

(6) New York Giants (9-7-1) @ (3) Minnesota Vikings (13-4)         NYG+3

These two teams met in wk 16 @MINN with MNINN barely winning 27-24. In that game NYG turned the ball over 2x and had a punt that was blocked. MINN turned those miscues into 10pts. MINN QB Kirk Cousins was sacked 4x but had 0turnivers. The two that did the most damage for MINN vs NYG were WR Justin Jefferson & TE TJ Hockenson. They had a combined 15receptions for 142yds and 3tds. NYG pretty much stopped the MINN run game. The MINN DEF didn’t stop NYG but NYG beat themselves in this game. MINN needed a 61yd fg in this game with :00 to win 27-24. What is working in the NYG favor is that NYG #4 RUSH OFF vs MINN #31 TOT DEF w/# 20 RUSH DEF & #31 PASS DEF. The MINN DEF gets burned a lot and they find themselves out of position. This game has the possibility of being a shootout with the MINN DEF being so bad and the NYG being a little inexperienced. But working in the NYG favor is that Cousins can be pressured into making mistakes and NYG have DC Don Martindale who has been around awhile and knows how to dial up defensive schemes. For the NYG OFF, NYG QB Daniel Jones needs to take what the MINN DEF gives him and use the whole field. He can’t force things and can’t turn the ball over. The crowd in MINN will be loud but what will cool them down is scoring. Jones & CO can’t get intimidated by it and just play their game. NYG needs to run the ball successfully and drop in passes when needed. I like NYG to win the game outright. It wouldn’t really be an upset because MINN is not really that good.    

THE PICK: NYG+3

Sunday January 15^th, 2023 8:15pm

(6) Baltimore Ravens @ (3) Cincinnati Bengals                       BALT+6 ½

It looks like BALT QB Lamar Jackson will not be ready for this game @CINNCY. These two teams have played 2x this season. In wk 5 on SNF, BALT escaped with a win at the end of the game with a fg by BALT K Justin Tucker to win, 19-17. That was a tight game going back and forth but each team had a miscue that led to the other team getting points. In the end, Jackson led BALT on a drive that resulted in the winning fg. In wk 18 these two teams met @CINNCY with QB Lamar Jackson missing his 5^th game. BALT QB Anthony Brown was at the helm and he had 3turnovers (2INTS & 1 lost fumble) that CINNCY turned into 21pts. In the 2^nd half it seemed that CINNCY was toying with BALT. CINNCY was up 24-7 at the half and BALT played catchup the whole 2^nd half. CINNCY didn’t do anything offensively and scored a measley 3pts. BALT was hanging around and CINNCY didn’t do anything to nail BALT down. CINNCY has QB Joe Burrow who knows how to read DEFs and doesn’t make too many mistakes. CINNCY has to get their run game going to take at least a little pressure off of Burrow. For BALT, it seems that without Jackson @QB, it will be an uphill battle with a lot of running with a sprinkle of passes. For BALT, Brown was 19/44 for 286 yds, 0tds, 2INTS & 1lost fumble. He was playing catchup from the get go but CINNCY cannot take BALT lightly. CINNCY needs to stop the BALT run and put it on the shoulders of Brown and CINNCY will win the game big. I don’t think CINNCY will go lightly in the 2^nd qtr. The fans will be loud and BALT will have trouble. Burrow is the man and I like CINNCY BIG here.   

THE PICK: CINNCY-6 ½  

Monday January 16^th, 2023 8:15pm

(5) Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)    TB+3

I have been saying this for the last month. I have a very good friend who is a DAL fan and this is his worst nightmare come to fruition. The first week of the playoffs and DAL has to travel to the NFC SOUTH winner which is Tampa Bay. These two teams met in wk 1 @DAL with TB winning 19-3. In that game, DAL looked completely flat and TB rushed for a combined 152yds on 33carries. DAL didn’t look good vs the rush then or the rest of the season. DAL #22 RUSH DEF. However, TB’s rush game would be a fluke because over the course of the season, TB would abandon the run and play the game on TB QB Tom Brady’s arm. He turned a number of losses into wins this season with his blasts from the pasts. DAL may not have to worry about the run game from TB, TB #32 RUSH OFF but, Brady is still alive and kicking and he can pick a DEF apart. DAL QB Dak Prescott is the X factor because you don’t know which guy will show up. He looked awful LW @WASH, throwing 14/37, 128yds, 1td & 1INT in the 26-6 loss. Prescott was outplayed by a QB that had never thrown and a pass in the NFL. Plus, WASH ran all over the DAL DEF. I don’t like DAL’s chances in this game. All TB has to do is establish the run and have Brady throw passes when he wants to and DAL will be beaten. The TB DEF will be swarming because they know they can get to Prescott. TB’s secondary has to make plays. TB has a chance to run away with this game but I do like their chances of winning by a td. Take TB here.  

THE PICK: TB+3