2022 NFL SEASON OVER/UNDER WINS
2022 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
The Jaguars had a terrible season in 2021 finishing 3-14 and in last place in the AFC SOUTH. A key element that didn’t help their cause was the fact that they went through two HCs during the season as well. Highly touted HC Urban Meyer lasted only 13 games, going 2-11 who was fired. He had some problems off the field which didn’t help his problems on the field. Then interim HC Darrell Bevell went 1-3. The two lone bright spots during the season were beating BUFF @HOME, 9-6 where JAGS were a heavy HOME DOG @ +14. The other was the last game of the season beating INDY @HOME also as a heavy DOG +15 and knocking INDY out of the playoff picture. Other than that, the season was a total disaster.
The Jacksonville Offense was ranked 27th and was ranked 32nd in scoring in 2021. JAGS averaged 14.9 points per game and only scored more than 23 points in a game once. This was in the last game of the season vs INDY. This team had troubling getting into the endzone all season. To make matters worse, the first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t have a good rookie season. WR Christian Kirk was signed as a FA from ARZ to give Lawrence a big target on OFF. TE Evan Engram was also added to help Lawrence get on track.
The team DEF for JAGS was ranked at 19th which is respectable but has to learn to make stops and put pressure on opposing QBs. New HC Doug Pederson comes in with a Super Bowl win as HC of the Philadephia Eagles in 2017, so he knows how to win. The task won’t be easy as this is a young team that is predicted to start two rookies on DEF and a rookie at Center.
THE BET: JAGS Under 6.5 wins (-130)
2022 CHICAGO BEARS
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
For the city of Chicago, the Bears have gotten steadily worse the last three years. They have gone 8-8 in 2019 & 2020 and 6-11 in 2021. Since the end of 2012, they have had one winning season and that was 2018 with a 12-4 record. The Monsters of the midway haven’t scared anyone except, maybe their own fans. In fact, the RUSH DEF for CHI has gone from #1 in 2018 to #22 in 2021. On top of this, the CHI DEF had 8 INTS in total all of 2021.
But that’s only half the story. Three CHI QBs combined to get sacked 58x. This led the NFL in 2021. Rookie QB Justin Fields led the way, getting sacked 36x in 12 games. A shaky O-LINE for CHI & Fields may be again running for his life. Fields also needs to make better choices as he rushed for over 400 yards in 2021 but also fumbled 12x . He needs to hold on tighter if he is going to take off.
New HC Matt Eberflus is the fourth HC for CHI in the last ten years and was the Colts DC in 2021. So look for an improvement in the overall scheme of things on that side of the ball.
There is a lot of inexperience on this team but with a new HC & some new Assistant coaches this team should be able to get to seven wins.
THE BET: BEARS OVER 6.5 WINS (-120)
2022 NEW YORK JETS
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5
1st yr HC Robert Saleh got a cold welcome to the NFL. The NY Jets finished 4-13 in 2021 and in last place in the AFC EAST. However, two of those wins were as heavy DOGS against pretty good teams. NYJ @HOME +7 ½ beat TENN in OT, 27-24. Then four weeks later @HOME +10 beat CINNCY 34-31. Were these just lucky wins by the NY JETS?
QB Zach Wilson didn’t have such a good rookie season and the OFF was ranked #26 in 2021. In fact, NY JETS OFF hasn’t been better than 26th since 2015. That also coincides with their last winning record. The pressure seems to always be on the QB because NYJ do not have a consistent RB that can take the pressure off of the QB. With no reliable RB, NYJ QBs were sacked a total of 53x in 2021.
The DEF for NYJ have been equally bad ranking 32nd in the NFL in 2021. HC Robert Saleh was known as a defensive guru when he was the SF DC. So the fact that that they were this bad is a major surprise. The only place this unit can go, is up.
The 2022 season is not kind to the NYJ with games against teams that are looking to improve in their own right and advance toward the playoffs. NYJ could start the season 0-6 after six weeks.
THE BET: JETS UNDER 5.5 WINS (+140)
2022 DALLAS COWBOYS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5
In 2021, the Dallas Cowboys went 12-5 SU and won the NFC EAST. However, in the 1st round of the 2021 playoffs, Dallas lost @HOME to SF, 23-17. At times, DAL has been known to underestimate their opponent. In the offseason, Dallas lost a lot of players and didn’t replace them with a lot of quality.
HC Mike McCarthy is heading into his 3rd season with DAL and knows that there is pressure from Owner Jerry Jones to win. DAL should be able to get at least four wins out of the NFC EAST vs WASH & NYG but, PHILLY may be a problem for DAL after sweeping the series in 2021.
The schedule is kind to DAL with games vs HOU, vs DET & @JAGS. But DAL has been known to be upset when they are a heavy FAV. In 2021, DAL was a heavy HOME FAVS vs DEN -9 ½ & LV -8. DAL lost both outright. We’ll see if they don’t get overconfident & unfocused.
Dallas has not had back to back double digit win seasons since 1995-1996 and I don’t see them doing it this year. Whenever DAL has had a double digit win season, the next season they fall back to mediocrity. Every time there is high expectations for this team, they seem to buckle under the pressure and disappoint.
THE BET: COWBOYS UNDER 10.5 WINS (+115)
2022 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Whether you like the Steelers or not, HC Mike Tomlin is a great coach who gets the most out of the players he has. In the past 15 seasons, Tomlin has not had a losing record and has only missed the playoffs 5x. This is the 1st season for him that the QB position is shaky. QB Mitch Trubisky who is on his 3rd team in three seasons, will be the starter and 1st round draft choice QB Kenny Pickett, out of PITT, will be the heir apparent.
The PITT OFF which was ranked 23rd in 2021 and has not been stellar since 2018. The DEF for PITT fell to 27th with 32nd vs the RUSH. This is the 1st time the PITT DEF has not been Top Ten since 2016. There needs to be much improvement there if they are going to keep that winning tradition. The AFC NORTH has gotten tougher with the emergence of CINNCY & the always tough CLE.
The Pittsburgh schedule is tough but they do not travel out side the eastern time zone. If QB Trubisky falters early, we may see Pickett earlier than expected. PITT needs more of a balance on both sides of the ball to push through the playoffs, however, this could be their 1st losing season in a while as growing pains for the OFF may keep the Steelers watching the playoffs in January.
THE BET: STEELERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (-115)
2022 ATLANTA FALCONS
Over/Under Win Total: 4.5
The Matt Ryan era in ATL is officially over. Marcus Mariota was given a 2yr contract as a bridge for 3rd round draft choice QB Desmond Ridder out of U of Cincinnati. The team went through a massive exodus in the off-season and added a lot of players from many different teams.
Many new faces will be seen on OFF for ATL as they were near the bottom, #29 in TOTAL OFF for 2021. Familiar faces are gone and replaced with guys trying to find a home. The DEF for ATL was #28 in 2021 so there needs to be some improvement there as well. ATL also was 30th in TEAM OPPONENT 3rd Down Conversions which meant they couldn’t make the stops to get the OFF back on the field.
This team is in a definite rebuild and finding the right fit for many of the team’s schemes will be a hit and miss outcome. There are many holes to fill on both sides of the ball and ATL will be out of the playoff picture early in the tough AFC SOUTH.
THE BET: FALCONS UNDER 4.5 WINS (-105)
2022 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
QB Carson Wentz is on his 3rd team in three years. He was traded for to start for WASH and get this team headed in the winning direction. WASH hasn’t had an exciting OFF since 2016. They did get some decent games from QB Taylor Heinicke in 2021. He gained valuable experience and stays with the team as the backup QB.
Considering that WASH was 21st in OFF and 22nd in DEF it’s a wonder that they ended up 7-10 and in the playoff conversation the last quarter of the season. They were 6-6 and then 1-4 the rest of the season. That has to change.
WASH was 32nd in TEAM OPPONET 3rd down conversions which meant that the WASH DEF spent more time on the field then necessary and didn’t make stops. They gave opposing OFFs more chances to score. This also needs to change if WASH is going to win more games.
Wentz needs to be consistent and finish games. The DEF needs to make stops and create more turnovers. This team has the ability to attain a winning record. Ron Rivera is in his 3rd season as HC for WASH and another 7-win season just won’t cut it. There is talent on this team but not a lot of depth and Ron needs to find a way to turn losses into wins. Will this team have people scratching their heads?
THE BET: WASH OVER 7.5 WINS (-130)
2022 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over/Under Win Total: 6
The Legion of Boom is officially over with LB Bobby Wagner leaving and joining the RAMS. SEATTLE finished 7-10 in 2021 and that was with Russell Wilson as their QB for 14 games. He too is gone. The DEF is not as good as people think and probably will go through big pains this season. SEA PASS Defense has been terrible for years.
The O-LINE has always had problems with giving up sacks and with Geno Smith & Drew Lock, not known for their mobility skills, don’t be surprised if SEA’s sacks allowed goes up from last year’s 46. As usual, the SEA O-LINE was not addressed in the off season and didn’t make any significant upgrades.
SEATTLE is basically starting from scratch and Geno Smith will be the starting QB. The AFC WEST is very tough with no games against lackluster talent. The rest of the schedule does have some winnable games but they will all be battles as other teams will also be looking to improve and not just knuckle under.
THE BET: SEATTLE UNDER 6 WINS (+110)
2022 BUFFALO BILLS
Over/Under Win Total: 11.5
BUFFALO still has to be stinging about their loss @KC in last years playoffs. Don’t think for one moment that anyone on this team or in the city of BUFFALO has forgotten. This should be their motivation this year.
This team has stars on both sides of the ball and Josh Allen has showed maturity in his growth as an NFL QB. He gets better every season. The OFF has many more weapons than it did just a few years ago. The DEF for BUFF has become very good under HC Sean McDermott. LB Von Miller is a nice addition to the Defense where he brings veteran leadership.
BUFFALO has a very tough schedule but if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. BUFFALO has the talent and should be poised to be playing in the SuperBowl.
THE BET: BUFFALO OVER 11.5 WINS (-130)
More teams coming!
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