2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 4 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday September 28^th, 2023 8:15pm

Detroit Lions (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                    GB+1 ½  

GB had a nice comeback win last @HOME vs NO. But, GB should have never been in  that situation in the first place. NO is an inferior team and GB has the tools to win games. GB certainly misses RB Aaron Jones. Whether or not he plays on TNF is still up in the air. As for DET, they beat ATL nicely in DET and sacked ATL QB Desmond Ridder 7x. L16 GB(H) vs DET, GB 12-4 SU but 7-8-1 ATS. L32 DET vs GB, GB 21-11 SU & 14-17-1 ATS. L23 DET vs GB, HOME 13-9-1 ATS. L22 DET vs GB, FAV 11-10-1 ATS. DET 6-5 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. DET 16-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 34-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 22-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. DET 2-5 ATS as a FAV off DD SU win vs .500>opp. DET 10-0 ATS l10 off DD ATS win. GB 3-4 ATS l7 as a HOME DOG. GB 13-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. GB 23-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. GB 26-28-2 ATS @home in OCT. GB 18-23 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. GB GB 1-12 ATS as a DOG w/revenge. GB 1-11 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenege. The DET DEF is certainly getting notice. DET #5 RUN DEF. So they will put it all on GB QB Jordan Love’s shoulders. These games are a drag’em out slugfests. Last season, with nothing to gain, DET eliminated GB from the playoff contention in the last game of the season and Aaron Rodgers last game at Lambeau. No revenge here because Rodgers is gone and Love didn’t play in that game. Lay the points here as DET rolls on.

THE PICK: DET-1 ½

Sunday October 1^st, 2023 9:30 am

Atlanta Falcons (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS  (London, England)        ATL+3

JAGS were beat down @HOME by HOU 37-17. I felt that they would bouceback after getting beat @HOME by KC. JAGS played KC tough and had some chances. But against HOU, JAGS played total catchup as they were down 17-0 in the 2^nd qtr. JAGS were beaten on both sides of the ball and looked bad. ATL didn’t look too good at DET either. ATL couldn’t run the ball and their ALL-PURPOSE RB Cordarrelle Patterson was out and is still questionable. ATL played catchup too but to no avail, losing 20-6. L5 ATL vs JAGS, ATL 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. ATL 10-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. ATL 32-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 38-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 9-2 ATS AWAY after score 10<pts vs non-div opp. ATL 8-2 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp off SUATS loss. ATL 4-13-1 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 7-13 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 1-11 ATS vs non-conf opp off DD SU loss. JAGS 13-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 18-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 6-6 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SU losses. JAGS 8-10 ATS after HOU. JAGS 0-10 ATS L10 vs NFC SOUTH. Both teams are coming off a BIG LOSS. JAGS have actually played competitively in London. JAGS are 4-5 ATS in 9 games in London. JAGS need a big game here and have the talent to do it. They can’t have many games like they did last week. ATL is still finding itself and is going through major looks with players to find the right combination. I like JAGS here on a big bounceback. Lay the points.

THE PICK: JAGS-3

Sunday October 1^st, 2023 1:00pm

Miami Dolphins (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                             MIA+2 ½

Both teams won in massive blowouts last week. The OFF for both teams was unstoppable. However, on DEF, neither of these teams are that great vs the run. This could be a shootout but right now MIA looks better. L16 BUFF(H) vs MIA, BUFF 12-4 SU & 9-6 ATS, 1NL. L28 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 15-12 ATS 1NL. L31 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 17-13 ATS 1NL. L12 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 10-2 SU 7-4 ATS 1NL. MIA 22-26 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. MIA 34-32 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 36-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 8-6 ATS after scoring 35>pts. MIA 16-8 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 9-1 ATS as a conf DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 7-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. BUFF 30-31-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 27-37-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 22-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. BUFF 6-2 ATS L8 off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 7-14 ATS @HOME off DD ATS wins. BUFF 2-6 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win vs div opp. BUFF 1-9-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 7-4 ATS vs opp w/rev off BB SU wins. BUFF 1-7 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win vs div opp. There is revenge on the minds of MIA because MIA lost in the playoffs @BUFF and late in the season @BUFF. If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best and right now BUFF is the top of the AFC EAST. MIA has to stay healthy and they will be great. This is a statement game for MIA to knock off BUFF. They need to come out strong and not turn the ball over. Take MIA here.

THE PICK: MIA+2 ½  

Denver Broncos (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                         CHI+3 ½  

Both of these teams were blown out last week. Both of these teams have major problems on both sides of the ball. To recap their games is a waste of time. CHI QB Justin Fields is a major disappointment and DEN QB Russell Wilson is playing like a lost rookie. L4 DEN vs CHI, DEN 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. DEN 5-5 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. DEN 14-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DEN 29-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 34-39 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 10-3 ATS AWAY vs <.250 opp. DEN 12-2 ATS AWAY vs <.250 non-div opp. DEN 9-3 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. DEN 10-5-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 1-7 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS losses vs <.500 opp. CHI 15-18 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. CHI 23-37-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 36-28-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 5-13 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. Both of these teams are going nowhere. I like the HOME team here getting the points because someone has to win and someone has to lose. This will be a close game because both teams have deficiencies that both teams can exploit. When two very bad teams are playing each other, take the one with points. Take CHI with points here.

THE PICK: CHI+3 ½

Baltimore Ravens (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                               BALT+2 ½  

LW, BALT should have never lost their game @HOME vs INDY. BALT was a heavy FAV but this game went back and forth to the very end. INDY used their running game with QB Minshew to keep the BALT DEF guessing. In the end INDY won in OT 22-19. Even the sure footed BALT K Justin Tucker missed a 61yd fg that could have won it for BALT in regulation. It was a very sloppy game by BALT and they had their chances. LW, the CLEV DEF completely shut down the TENN OFF. TENN rushed for 26yds and QB Ryan Tannehill threw for a net 68yds after being sacked 5x. CLEVE took advantage of their opportunities and put points on the board. L16 CLEV(H) vs BALT, CLEV 5-11 SU & 5-11 ATS. L27 BALT vs CLEV, ROAD 17-10 ATS. L30 BALT vs CLEV, BALT 24-6 SU & 19-11 ATS. BALT 4-8 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. BALT 8-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. BALT 31-34-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 16-19-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 26-26-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. BALT 10-11 ATS before PITT. BALT 12-5 ATS as a div DOG. BALT 4-13 ATS off non-div SU FAV loss. BALT 6-0 ATS L6 AWAY off SU FAV loss. CLEV 6-10 ATS before bye. CLEV 8-17 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CLEV 26-19-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEV 13-10-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CLEV 14-12-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CLEV 5-12-1 ATS as a HOME FDAV vs div. CLEV 6-21 ATS off DD SU win. CLEV 2-6 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEV 1-14-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 8-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS loss. CLEV 1-9 ATS off SUATS win vs opp w/revenge. CLEV 0-7 ATS L7 off DD SU win. BALT is in a bounceback mode after losing in OT @HOME to INDY. CLEV is coming off a blowout win @HOME vs TENN. Who is more revved up for this game? BALT does have a lot of players banged u and out but that doesn’t stop them from being competitive. BALT has RBs that can get the job done even though JK Dobbins is out for the season. They need to get these guys going. There is also a little payback on the minds of BALT, as they lost at CLEV in wk 15 that basically added to a sunk season for BALT. I like BALT with the points here on a bounceback.

THE PICK: BALT+2 ½

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                               TENN+2 ½  

On MNF, CINNCY showed resiliency. The CINNCY DEF got to LAR QB Matthew Stafford 6x and didn’t allow their OFF to get going. CINNCY allowed only 3fgs and a dummy td late that made the final score look close, 19-16. CINNCY was up 19-9 when LAR scored their td with 1:05 left. TENN is going backwards. They showed nothing @CLEVE LW and they are lucky CLEV didn’t run up the score. TENN WR DeAndre Hopkins should have signed somewhere else because the OFF for TENN is stagnant. Teams are teeing off on RB Derrick Henry who rushed for a paltry 20 yds vs CLEV. L9 CINNCY vs TENN, CINNCY 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS. CINNCY 8-4 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 11-10-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CINNCY 27-41 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 23-31-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 23-6 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINCCY 13-2 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. 11-5 ATS L16 as a conf ROAD FAV. TENN 15-9 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. TENN 36-30ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 34-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 8-2 ATS before INDY. TENN 2-12 ATS L14 vs AFC NORTH. CINNCY started slow last year and then went deep into the playoffs. It all rides on QB Joe Burrow and if he can weather the storms, CINNCY will be alright. These two teams met @TENN last season in wk 12 with CINNCY winning 20-16. It was a tight game and I see another game like that here but with CINNCY winning again. I don’t see any revenge by TENN because their OFF is so predictable. Lay the points here as CINNCY wins by 4pts.

THE PICK: CINNCY-2 ½

Los Angeles Rams (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                           LAR+1

LW LAR came up lame on MNF. The score wasn’t even that close and only a dummy td at the end by LAR made the final score close 19-16. LAR couldn’t do anything right and should make some corrections this week. INDY played their hearts out as a BIG DOG+7 ½ @BALT. They went toe-to-toe with BALT and stifled the BALT OFF. Never the less, INDY won in OT 19-16. INDY had Gardner Minshew as their QB and he is good for a couple of wins. He played well vs BALT but ROOKIE Anthony Richardson is slated to come back and start this week. L5 LAR vs INDY, LAR 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. LAR 7-14-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAR 33-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 31-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 11-14 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 10-2-2 ATS as a non conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. LAR 10-8-1 ATS AWAY after SU loss. INDY 3-1 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. INDY 12-5-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. INDY 3-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 33-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 4-11 ATS before JAGS. INDY 20-14 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. LAR is on a bounceback after a terrible performance. Stafford better get going because he may be sitting soon if he doesn’t do better. The O-LINE has to do better as well. Stafford is the type that needs guys around him to do well. I don’t think INDY would have beaten BALT last week with Richardson as their QB. Minshew has played and has seen different teams with different DEF looks. INDY is actually better with Gardner Minshew than Anthony Richardson. Richardson makes rookie mistakes. I don’t think INDY will win with Richardson coming back this week. This is almost a PICK’EM game but I like LAR here.

THE PICK: LAR+1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (2-1), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS            TB+3

LW, NO was up 17-0 in the 4^th qtr @GB and lost 18-17. The DEF for NO gave up and only got to GB QB Jordan Love 1x. NO needs to find a solution. TB had their own problems on MNF. TB didn’t have much OFF and the DEF spent too much time on the field. Plus, they couldn’t stop the run vs PHILLY. Hence, they were playing catchup the whole night. Two turnovers didn’t help TB either as PHILLY turned them into 3pts and sacked QB Baker Mayfield in the endzone for a safety. L16 TB @NO, TB 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS. L20 TB vs NO, HOME 10-10 ATS. L12 TB vs NO, NO 9-3 ATS. TB 5-10 ATS since 2007 before bye. TB 20-39-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 24-38-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 18-25 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. NO 34-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 39-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 16-25 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. NO 15-8-1 ATS after SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. This game is a bit of a toss up because both are coming off losses and both are battling for something in the NFC SOUTH. QB Winston doesn’t scare me and it looks like he will be in there again this week. I think this will be a tight game with TB coming out on top unless there are turnovers like there were on MNF. Also, TB DEF needs to stop NO RB Alvin Kamara who was reinstated this week off suspension.

THE PICK: TB+3

Washington Commanders (2-1), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS              WASH+8 ½  

LW, WASH @HOME vs BUFF was a total loss, 37-3. Five turnovers by WASH didn’t help either. WASH QB Sam Howell had 4INTS. They will regroup. I didn’t think they would beat BUFF but, I thought they could at least keep it competitive. WASH totally collapsed. On MNF PHILLY ran all over TB for 201yds. TB also had 1lost fum and 1INT that helped PHILLY. But TB beat themselves. PHILLY took it easy but TB had their shots. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts had 2INTS and TB did nothing with them. PHILLY actually got away lucky but the score doesn’t reflect that. L16 PHILLY(H) vs WASH, PHILLY 8-8 SU & 5-11 ATS. L28 WASH vs PHILLY, FAV 16-12 ATS. L32 WASH vs PHILLY, ROAD 21-11 ATS. WASH 10-3 ATS before TNF. WASH 29-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 22-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. WASH 35-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 11-3 ATS AWAY vs .666>div opp. WASH 12-8 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 16-2 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 5-15 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 6-1 ATS L7 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. PHILLY 5-11 ATS after MNF. PHILLY 36-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 22-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 44-38 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 10-4 ATS off SU win/3>pts vs div opp. Division games are so much different than other games because the teams know each other so well. Last season, WASH beat PHILLY @PHILLY on MNF. WASH was a BIG DOG but I predicted that they would win outright. It was their moment and they won 32-21. WASH played very smart and that is what they need to do again for this game. WASH cannot let PHILLY run wild. They need to stop the run and let the secondary for WASH work its magic. I like WASH with the points.

THE PICK: WASH+8 ½ 

Minnesota Vikings (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (0-3), (0-2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS                   CAR+3 ½

MINN is in desperation mode. They could have won the game last week @HOME vs LAC but bad decisions late in the game cost them the game 28-24. MINN QB Kirk Cousins did spread the ball around to nine different receivers which is a good sign and the run game ran for 130 yards but the DEF for MINN has to play better. CAR QB Andy Dalton did his best to get a win but SEA was due. CAR played cathcup in the 2^nd half and the run game for CAR went out the door. SEA was up by 17pts when CAR scored a dummy td to make the final score SEA 37-27. L11 MIN vs CAR, MINN 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS. MINN 20-8 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 32-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 38-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 7-3 ATS AWAY after BB Su losses. MINN 0-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU FAV loss. CAR 11-11-2 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. CAR 40-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 25-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 16-9 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 13-13 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 9-4 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 16-2 ATS as a DOG vs <.333opp. CAR 13-1 ATS as a non-div DOG vs .333<opp. CAR 14-1 ATS off DD SU conf RAOD loss. Believe it or not, MINN is tougher against the run then they are vs the pass. CAR QB Bryce Young is still questionable for this game. If CAR relies on their run game, MINN should be able to shut them down. MINN secondary is questionable and this game could turn into a shootout. But MINN is desperate for a win or their season is relatively over. No one expects CAR to be fighting for the NFC SOUTH title just yet. Lay the points as CAR still has a ways to go.

THE PICK: MINN-3 ½   

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                               HOU+3

LW, HOU as a BIG DOG+9 ½ shocked the JAGS, @JAGS 37-17. This wasn’t even a game as HOU was up 17-0 in the 2^nd qtr. JAGS played catchup to no avail. HOU scored 20pts off of JAGS miscues. PITT was @LV on SNF and LV HC Josh McDaniels made a bad decision that gave PITT the victory. With the score PITT 23-15 and LV 4^th & 4 at the PITT 8yd line, McDaniels decided to kick a fg instead of going for it. LV kicked a fg and got the ball back with :25. Final score PITT 23-18. I liked LV+2 ½ , but, I didn’t know a bad decision would cost me the game plus the fact that Jimmy G threw 3INTS. Anyway, the PITT DEF held on after leading 23-7. L6 PITT vs HOU, PITT 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS. PITT 8-14 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 10-98 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PITT 36-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 50-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 16-17-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 15-23 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 9-3 ATS L12 vs AFC SOUTH. PITT 12-5 ATS before div HOME gm. PITT 3-4 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. HOU 12-16 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. HOU 18-23-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 18-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 9-2 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 4-9 ATS as a DOG <10pts off SU DOG win vs >.333opp. The PITT DEF can beat you many ways and PITT QB Kenny Pickett is getting better with each game. I am not sold on HOU as of yet because they beat a team within their division that they themselves have not proven anything. PITT is always tough and if they get their run game going vs HOU, the DEF for HOU will not respond. That will leave the PITT receivers open able to spread the OFF. Lay the points here on the road as PITT rolls.

THE PICK: PITT-3

Sunday October 1^st, 2023 4:00pm

Las Vegas Raiders (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-10 AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS           LV+5 ½

LV lost on SNF for a few reasons. QB Jimmy G threw 3INTS. The last one didn’t matter but the first two turned into 10pts for PITT. The second reason s that when LV was on their comeback, HC Josh McDaniels decided to kick a fg instead of going for it late with a 4^th & 4 from the 8yd line. For LAC, they were in a must win game @MINN. This was a game that went back and forth and could have gone either way but LAC prevailed, 28-24. L16 LAC(H) vs LV, LAC 10-6 SU & 7-8-1 ATS. L25 LAC vs LV, ROAD 13-10-1 ATS 1NL. L27 LAC vs LV, DOG 19-6-1 ATS 1NL. LAC 5-11 ATS since 2007 before bye. LAC 33-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 31-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 28-27 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 34-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 39-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 23-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 21-5 ATS as a div ROAD DOG >3pts off SU loss. LV 10-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt off SU loss vs <.500 opp. I like LAC to win but, not by more than 3pts. LAC has many injured players including WR Mike Williams who is now out for the season. RB Austin Ekeler is questionable and if he comes back for this game, he will be rusty. As for LV, whoever is the QB for this game, they need to do better, otherwise the season will already be lost. The DEF for LAC is loose and they already have given up on CB JC Jackson who they signed for big money. LB Khalil Mack has 0sacks in 3games. LAC HC Brandon Staley makes bad decisions and by shear luck, wins games. Two bad HCs going against each, take the points.

With Jimmy G officially ruled out and this team looking mighty bad, I'm changing my pick to LAC.

THE PICK: LAC-5 1/2    

New England Patriots (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                            NE+7

LW, NE beat NYJ, so what. They barely beat them as NYJ beat themselves. DAL was alarmed and shocked by ARZ @ARZ. ARZ was a heavy DOG+12 @HOME and DAL had no answers. DAL was beaten 28-16. DAL was playing catchup in this game to no avail. DAL did not make the most of their chances and couldn’t stop a revved up ARZ team. L5 NE vs DAL, NE 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. NE 10-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NE 26-16 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 40-22-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 29-18-2 ATS a ROAD DOG since 2002. NE 12-3 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 5-9 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. NE 10-5 ATS after NYJ. NE 1-7 ATS L8 as a DOG vs >.500 opp. DAL 37-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 46-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 7-10 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DAL 7-25-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 3-21 ATS as a HOME FAV after an SU conf loss. DAL is on a BIG bounceback here. DAL has to make the necessary adjustments because the fact that CB Trevon Diggs is out for the season opposing OFFs may try to take advantage of that. But this week NE doesn’t have the team to do it. NE hasn’t looked good and DAL needs to get their run game going to take pressure off of Dak Prescott. By the way, do you think NE RB Ezekiel Elliott will be up for this game? The DEF for DAL will be ready because they know his habits. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: DAL-7

Arizona Cardinals (1-2), (3-0) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                            ARZ+14

LW, ARZ as a BIG DOG+12 @HOME vs DAL did the impossible. If you only saw that game and did not know the spread or the teams, you would have thought ARZ was going to the SuperBowl and DAL was going nowhere. ARZ outplayed DAL on both sides of the ball and won 28-16. ARZ deserved the win. On TNF, SF @HOME toyed with NYG and came away with a nice win, 30-12. The score was SF 17-12 and maybe NYG thought they had a shot but, they didn’t and SF put the clamp down. SF has found a winner with QB Brock Purdy. Who da thunk it? L16 ARZ @SF, ARZ 7-9 SU & 9-6-1 ATS L28 ARZ vs SF, ARZ 13-15 SU & 14-14 ATS. L14 ARZ vs SF, ROAD 10-4 ATS. L16 ARZ vs SF, DOG 9-7 ATS. ARZ 24-34 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 39-42 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 21-24 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ 22-8-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. SF 7-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. SF 25-20-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SF 45-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 31-37-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 7-16 ATS w/rest. SF 2-9 ATS w/rest vs conf opp. Division games are always tougher and SF has been on a roll. They are coming off a nice rest and a blowout of NYG. ARZ has nothing to lose. Can they get a BIG UPSET 2weekes in a row? I don’t know if they can get the upset because SF is much more fine tuned than DAL but. ARZ will make it interesting. I think they can cover this game without it getting out of control.

THE PICK: ARZ+14

Sunday October 1^st, 2023 8:20pm

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ New York Jets (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                     NYJ+9 ½

NYJ look awful. NYJ QB Zach Wilson can’t get the ball to the open receiver and has no clue of his surroundings. NYJ were down by 3pts when Wilson was tackled in the endzone for a safety. Instead of down by 3pts, NYJ was now down by 5pts needing a td. A replacement for Wilson can’t come soon enough. NYJ lost @HOME 15-10. LW, I loved KC @HOME vs CHI. CHI is going backwards while this was like a scrimmage for KC. KC was up 34-0 at the half and probably could have scored 60pts easily. But, KC HC Andy Reid is not about embarrassing anyone and he eased up with a 41-10 victory. L8 NYJ vs KC, KC 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS. KC 17-18-1 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. KC 8-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. KC 10-10 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 16-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 10-8 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. KC 25-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 30-29-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 19-17-1 ATS L37 vs AFC EAST. KC 8-2 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins. KC 18-12 ATS as a non div FAV >8pts. KC 18-6-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. NYJ 14-20 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 10-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB Gs. NYJ 0-1 ATS as a HOME DOG on SNF. NYJ 33-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 38-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 28-28-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 11-9 ATS afer scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. NYJ 8-0 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. I give no chance to NYJ and QB Zach Wilson. He can’t read defenses and can’t get the ball to the open receiver. The DEF for NYJ can only due enough which they will be overwhelmed by a KC team that is looking to not make any mistakes and get back to the SuperBowl. All hands for KC will be in this game. The only thing positive in this game for NYJ will be the half time ceremony for newly HOF DT Joe Klecko. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: KC-9 ½   

Monday October 2^nd, 2023 8:15pm

Seattle Seahawks (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ New York Giants (1-2), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                               SEA+1 ½

LW, SEA was on a roll and a revenge game like I said previously. They took care of business @HOME vs CAR. The SEA DEF held CAR to 44yds rushing. SEA QB Geno Smith has to stay the course. The run game for SEA helped Smith out by rushing for 146yds & 2tds. The game was basically tied at the half but SEA took over in the 2^nd half to win 37-27. As for NYG on TNF, it was MEN vs boys and SF was just toying with NYG. NYG lost 30-12. The run game was completely stopped by SF and w/o RB Saquon Barkley, NYG didn’t have a chance. L10 SEA vs NYG, SEA 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS. SEA 14-6 ATS on MNF. SEA 2-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. SEA 11-5 ATS since 2007 before bye. SEA 32-38-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 31-34-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 15-3-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 13-2 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. SEA 13-3 ATS as a conf DOG >1pt off SUATS win. SEA 14-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts. NYG 9-7 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. NYG 30-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 35-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYG 5-16 ATS L21 vs NFC WEST. NYG 0-11 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. NYG 6-0 ATS w/rest vs .700<opp off SU win. Barkley is still recovering from his ankle injury and if he is not playing this game, SEA should romp. If he is playing this game, he will be a little rusty but SEA will prevail. NYG QB Daniel Jones does not look like the QB of 2022. He looks like the QB of 2021 and before. If SEA gives him pressure which they normally do, NYG will be in trouble. Last season in wk 8, SEA beat NYG @SEA, 27-13. There could be a repeat here. I like SEA w/the points here.

THE PICK: SEA+1 ½