2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 12
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 23rd, 2023 12:30pm
Green Bay Packers (4-6), (3-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Detroit Lions (8-2) (7-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS GB+7 ½
LW, GB @HOME played an inept LAC team and did what they had to do and won 23-20. LAC got into the redzone 4x but scored only 1td and had a turnover as well. GB QB Jordan Love played a decent game spreading the ball around to 10 different receivers. This certainly kept the LAC DEF guessing. GB had a nice drive late in the game that resulted in a td which changed the score from LAC 20-16 to GB 23-20. LAC had two more drives that went nowhere. The GB DEF held up against a team that looks good on paper but doesn’t translate well to the field. LW, CHI gave DET @HOME a run for their money and a scare. CHI came out aggressive and had 3INTS, 1 recovered fumble & two sacks. CHI was up 26-14 with 4:15 to go and as a heavy DOG+10, an upset looked promising. DET woke up and scored 2tds and a sack fumble that turned into a safety and all of a sudden DET won 31-26. No cover for DET but, an escape win for DET. DET was sloppy and CHI responded. CHI QB Justin Fields returned from injury and put on a show. He rushed for 104yds while passing for 169yds with a turnover on a strip sack that resulted in the safety. L16 GB @DET, GB 9-7 SU & 7-9 ATS. L33 GB vs DET, GB 21-12 SU & 14-18-1 ATS. L24 GB vs DET, HOME 13-10-1 ATS. L23 DET vs GB, FAV 11-10-2 ATS. GB 27-24 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 25-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 30-41-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 15-8-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 7-10 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 1-12 ATS as a DOG w/revenge. GB 1-11 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenge. DET 11-4-2 ATS 1NL. DET 36-40 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 26-25 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 29-28 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 10-2 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 9-10-1 ATS after CHI. DET 5-6 ATS vs <.500opp. DET hasn’t been the best on Thanksgiving recently but, as the FAV during that span DET is 4-0 SUATS. DET 4-7 SU & 6-4-1 ATS L11 on Thanksgiving. So it’s actually a pretty good bet. DET has beaten GB four straight times so there may be some revenge on the minds of GB. At times, DET does not sow up the run well. LW, they gave up 183yds rushing vs CHI and week before 98yds rushing @LAC. DET #9 TOT DEF w/ #5 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. Plus, the DET DEF needs to create some turnovers. They need to be aggressive. Some INTs would be nice. HC Dan Campbell knows that GB likes to run and needs to make adjustments this week to shut it down. Put it all on Love’s shoulders. LW should be treated like a loss for DET. They needed a miraculous comeback @HOME vs CHI to win that game. Goff was terrible and he had 3INTS. That was the most this season for him. GB RB Aaron Jones went out of the last game with a knee injury and will not be available for this game. I like DET to make adjustments and blow GB out of the water in this one. They will be on full display and need to send a message to other teams that they are no pushover. CHI gave it their best but came up short. GB hasn’t beaten any quality teams this season. Plus, Love is not a mobile QB. He doesn’t take off like Fields and is a pocket passer. The DET secondary can cover as long as the D-LINE pressures him. GB’s four wins are @CHI, vs NO, vs LAR(backup QB) & vs LAC. All are under .500 and not going to the playoffs. Lay the points here as DET gets back to business.
THE PICK: DET-7 ½
Thursday November 23rd, 2023 4:30pm
Washington Commanders (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3), (7-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (4-0) ATS WASH+12
LW, DAL-10 ½ @CAR looked a little shaky for awhile until DAL woke up. It was DAL 17-10 when DAL scored a td and then had a PCK6 to win the game 33-10. It seemed like DAL let CAR hang around until the 4th qtr. DAL QB Dak Prescott spread the ball around to nine different receivers and that overwhelmed a CAR secondary. LW, WASH shot themselves in the foot. They were a FAV-10. I don’t know who made up that spread but it was way off. NYG always play WASH tough and NYG came to play in this one. WASH did have 9sacks but had 6turnovers. This game was NYG 24-19 late but a PICK6 by WASH QB Sam Howell ended the game at NYG 31-19. WASH had their chances but with that many turnovers it is inevitable that you will lose. NYG were lucky because WASH could have pulled out the win had they not had the PICK6. L16 WASH @DAL, WASH WASH 5-11 SU but 10-6 ATS. L28 WASH vs DAL, WASH 15-13 ATS. L28 WASH vs DAL, DOG 15-12 ATS 1PICK’EM. L18 WASH vs DAL, ROAD 10-8 ATS. WASH 22-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 34-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 46-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 3-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. WASH 2-5 ATS vs div on TNF. WASH 3-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. WASH 9-16-1 ATS after NYG. WASH 12-3 ATS AWAY vs .666> div opp. WASH 13-5 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 14-8 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 17-2 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 6-16 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 14-18 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 6-15 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 7-1 ATS L8 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 2-10 ATS vs <.750 div opp off SU win. DAL 11-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DAL 45-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 50-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 30-24 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 14-2 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. DAL 27-9-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 12-3 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL 23-10 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL does not have a great record on Thanksgiving like they did during the 1970s -1990s. Even though DAL has had winning records, they have come up short on Thanksgiving. DAL 4-7 SU & 1-10 ATS L11 on Thanksgiving. DAL is due for a game that they win but don’t cover. This could be the game. As their record on Thanksgiving dictates, they are not good ATS. WASH may catch DAL sleeping and might even pull off the upset but they certainly will keep it close. Of course if it is a continuation of turnovers from last week vs NYG, they will certainly lose. WASH will make adjustments and is still evaluating their QB Sam Howell. At times he looks good and at times, he regresses. WASH has played PHILLY 2x very close so there is hope. I like the points here because DAL will probably take WASH for granted and then win by a hair like they did vs NYG last year on Thanksgiving as well. WASH needs to get their run game going here to take pressure off of Howell. DAL #15 RUSH DEF. Take WASH & the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+12
Thursday November 23rd, 2023 8:20pm
San Francisco 49ers (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS SEA+6 ½
LW, SF @HOME vs TB came very close to a back door cover. There was no way, TB was winning this game but after SF was up 27-14 and the spread SF-11 ½ , TB had 3possessions where they went DOWNS, INT & DOWNS. TB was not going for a fg because SF was up by 13 and it was a 2td game. What good would a fg do? On one of those possessions, TB made it to the SF 12yd line but to no avail. Anyway, SF was up 27-7 and it looked like a rout but SF let up a bit and TB scored a td to make the final 27-14. It would have been nice if SF scored another td but SF went PUNT, PUNT & DOWNS on their 3 last full possessions. LW, SEA was in a dogfight @LAR. SEA had a chance to win it at the end with a fg but it barely missed right. SEA was up 13-7 at the half but managed only 3more pts thereafter. LAR scored 10pts in the 4th qtr but left a lot of time on the clock for SEA to make a quick drive and set up for a fg. SEA got their drive but missed a game winner. SEA QB Geno Smith played well but temporarily injured his elbow/triceps and Drew Lock came in and threw an INT which LAR eventually turned into the winning fg. L16 SEA(H) vs SF, SEA 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. L22 SEA vs SF, SEA 14-7-1 ATS. L18 SEA vs SF, FAV 12-6 ATS. SF 2-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on TNF. SF 5-9 ATS on TNF. SF 2-6 ATS on TNF off SU win. SF 14-13 ATS L27 as a RAOD FAV. SF 17-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SF 32-26-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 37-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 22-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 2-17 ATS off non div gm vs opp off SU FAV loss. SEA 10-3 ATS on TNF. SEA 17-11 ATS @HOME on TNF. SEA 12-12 ATS vs div on TNF. SEA 8-4 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. SEA 26-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 28-22 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 33-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 17-8-1 ATS after an SU loss away & coming HOME. SEA 0-6 ATS L6 after div RG. SF S Talona Hufanga tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season. This is a big blow to the SF DEF because he is so good in the middle of the field. SF QB Brock Purdy was almost perfect vs TB with 0turnovers and 21/25 passing & 3tds. He has certainly been leading this team well. SEA HC Pete Carroll says he expects Smith to play vs SF but if he doesn’t and Lock is there it may be very bad for SEA. Last season, SF beat SEA 2x in the regular season and 1x in the playoffs. SEA may have some revenge in mind but if Smith is out, they won’t have a chance. Also, after SF @HOME beat TB 35-7 last season, SF went on the ROAD and played SEA on TNF. SF was a FAV-3 ½ and beat SEA 21-13. SF was up 21-3 in this game and let SEA sort of creep back into it. SF missed a fg that would have made it 24-6 late in the game before SEA got their dummy td. SF #5 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. Last week, SEA managed 68yds rushing vs LAR who at times couldn’t stop anyone, how will they do this week vs SF? Lay the points here because only if SF has a total meltdown, will SEA win or get close to a cover in this game. SF is playing hard to try to get to the #1 spot and they have a game with PHILLY coming up.
THE PICK: SF-6 ½
Friday November 24th, 2023 3:00pm
Miami Dolphins (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New York Jets (4-6), (4-5-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS NYJ+10
LW, I felt strongly that BUFF @HOME would bounceback after their loss @HOME on MNF to DEN. BUFF had a new OC and things would look different for at least one game. NYJ were up against that. BUFF destroyed NYJ 32-6. The only NYJ points came after a fake punt and a drive that ended up being a td with the point after missed. That made the score BUFF 16-6 and NYJ fans may have had some hope only down 10 at the half. But right away in the 2nd half, BUFF scored 2tds on consecutive possessions and the score was BUFF 29-6 and it was over. NYJ QB Zach Wilson was benched in favor of Tim Boyle and he didn’t fare much better. NYJ QBs were 14-29 for 114yds, 1td & 2INTS while being sacked 6x. LW, MIA @HOME let LV in the game until the last possible moment. If it wasn’t for a MIA CB Jalen Ramsey INT in the endzone, LV may have scored and won the game. Both teams had 3turnovers and it was a mistake filled game. MIA scored on 2tds and kicked 2fgs for the 20-13 win. MIA was a FAV-12 but couldn’t get going in the 2nd half and settled for the close win. L16 MIA @NYJ, MIA 10-6 SU & 10-5-1 ATS. L27 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 17-10 ATS. L32 MIA vs NYJ, DOG 19-12-1 ATS. MIA 7-8 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 16-7 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RGs. MIA 21-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. MIA 40-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 34-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYJ 25-26-1 ATS L52 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 5-17 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYJ 37-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 26-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 33-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 30-29-1 ATS L60 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 1-15 ATS after BUFF. NYJ 9-7 ATS after scoring <10pts. NYJ 12-10 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. So this is a Black Friday game for the NFL. NYJ QB Tim Boyle is getting the start for this game. Wilson has been delegated to 3rd string behind Trevor Siemian. We have probably seen the last of Wilson playing QB for the NYJ unless the two QBs in front of him get injured. Boyle will have his problems because he is behind an O-LINE that has given up 40 sacks and counting. MIA had some uncharacteristic turnovers last week vs LV that made the game closer than it should have been. MIA HC Mike McDaniel will look to sure up their team for this game and beyond so that they will at least have one game at home in the playoffs. Look for the MIA DEF to generate some turnovers here and keep the NYJ OFF at bay. NYJ are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS after blowouts this season. Boyle is actually a downgrade from Wilson because at least Wilson knows the NYJ playbook, Boyle really does not. This would have been a good matchup with Rodgers in there but unfortunately the country will see a MIA blowout. MIA will make the necessary changes so that they stop NYJ on both sides of the ball. MIA has to spread the ball around to keep the NYJ DEF guessing and on the field. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-10
Sunday November 26th, 2023 1:00pm
New Orleans Saints (5-5), (3-6-1) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-2-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS NO+1
Before their bye, NO lost @MINN 27-19. It was MINN 24-3 before NO staged a mild comeback but, to no avail. NO QB Derek Carr was knocked out with a concussion and Jameis Winston took over. He threw 2INTS on 2straight possessions in the 4th qtr that essentially sealed the win for MINN. Before their bye, ATL was @ARZ. All ATL needed as they were leading 23-22 was stopped ARZ QB Kyler Murray on a 3rd & 10 deep in ARZ territory. He was back at his 20yd line and it would have been 4th & 20 but ATL let Murray slip away and he ran for a 1st down which led to a fg with :00 and a 25-23 defeat for ATL. That has been the story of ATL’s season. They can’t close out games and they can’t make plays either on OFF or DEF when they need them. ATL QB Taylor Heinicke suffered a hamstring injury and Desmond Ridder came in but couldn’t get the win. L16 NO @ATL, NO 11-5 SU & 9-7 ATS. L25 NO vs ATL, NO 15-10 ATS. L24 NO vs ATL, HOME 12-12 ATS. L20 NO vs ATL, DOG 13-7 ATS. NO 9-7 ATS since 2007 after their bye. NO 41-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 33-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NO. NO 31-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NO 26-11 ATS L37 as a ROAD DOG. NO 1-4 ATS L5 w/rest. ATL 10-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye. ATL 28-36-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 30-23-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. ATL 34-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. Both teams should be well rested. Both are coming off losses. Neither team is going anywhere but NO is the only team in the NFC SOUTH that is at .500 or better. They should be motivated to win this game and stay in 1st place. On paper, NO looks talented but when they take the field many mistakes occur and the DEF seems to disappear at times. NO #8 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #8 PASS DEF. NO doesn’t get blownout. Their biggest defeat was wk4 vs TB, 26-9. Other than that, all their other losses have been by 8pts or less. At this moment, NO QB Derek Carr is in concussion protocol and has not been cleared but, Jameis Winston knows the OFF well. NO needs to get their run game going to take pressure off of Winston or even Carr. When NO runs well, they win. ATL #14 RUSH DEF. ATL is sticking with QB Desmond Ridder who needs to step up his game if he is to have a future in the NFL. Heinicke has been relegated to backup to Ridder once he recovers from his hamstring injury. NO is motivated for a playoff spot, ATL is just motivated to stay healthy and see who is good enough for 2024.
THE PICK: NO+1
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS CINNCY+1
LW on TNF, CINNCY was actually 10-7 @BALT when CINNCY QB Joe Burrow got hurt. He tore tendons in his throwing wrist and there goes the game and the season. CINNCY then lost 34-20. CINNCY was trailing 34-13 when CINNCY QB Jake Browning threw a dummy td to make the final score closer. But when Burrow went out of the game BALT poured it on. LW, PITT @CLEV had a big shot at winning the game but was stagnated throughout. I liked PITT+4 even when it was announced that Dorian Thompson would start instead of PJ Walker at QB for CLEV and the spread moved to PITT+1. But that is where I analyzed it and kept it there. Good thing because CLEVE won 13-10. Anyway, OC Matt Canada is gone and the OFF during the game was going nowhere. PITT RB Jaylen Warren ran for a 74yd td and that was basically it for the OFF. PITT punted 9x. PITT had their chances but the OFF play calling was suspect. Hopefully it will be different this week. L22 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 15-6-1 ATS. L22 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 15-7 SU & 12-10 ATS. L16 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 12-4 SU & 9-6-1 ATS. L25 PITT vs CINNCY, FAV 13-11-1 ATS. PITT 15-19 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PITT 35-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 35-25-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 43-46-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 17-18-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 5-0 ATS as a div ROAD FAV <11pts vs opp off DD SU loss. PITT 9-1 ATS as a div FAV <11pts vs opp off DD SU loss. CINNCY 13-8-3 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 28-32 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 36-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 45-38-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 20-19-2 ATS after an SU loss & @HOME. CINNCY 5-9 ATS @HOME off SU DIV loss. CINNCY 7-0 ATS L7 off BB SUATS losses. Sorry, but with Burrow out at QB, CINNCY’s season is over. They are just playing out the string as they are currently in last place in the AFC NORTH and don’t really have an easy schedule in front of them. CINNCY #30 RUSH OFF. This is fine with a healthy Joe Burrow as your QB and at times it may be stretching it but, with Jake Browning as your QB, he needs all the help he can get starting out. PITT is coming off a close loss. That was a game that they could have won and should have won. PITT is still fighting for some kind of playoff spot. Also, Matt Canada is gone at OC and whoever is named as the OC has to be better and will open up the OFF. Look for a more balanced and effective OFF from PITT in this game. CINNCY DEF is good but they are banged up and they will be on the field a lot in this game as the OFF will not be instinct with Browning at the helm. At this time WR tee Higgins is questionable but CINNCY could use all the help they can get. However, I like PITT here in a bounceback and new OCs.
THE PICK: PITT-1
Carolina Panthers (1-9), (2-7-1) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS CAR+3 ½
LW, CAR @HOME was only down 17-10 to DAL when the bottom fell out. DAL scored a td, then had a PICK6 and before you knew it, the final score was DAL 33-10. CAR QB Bryce Young has not been the QB everyone was expecting and going forward he should learn heartily from all his mistakes this season. The run game hasn’t been as dependable as it has been in years past either. LW, TENN lost 34-14 @JAGS. This wasn’t even a game as TENN was outplayed on both sides of the ball and it was 27-0 in the 3rd qtr before TENN finally found the endzone. The DEF for TENN which in past years was one of the BEST as let this team down this year tremendously. L4 TENN vs CAR, TENN 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. 9-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CAR 31-28-3 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 30-34-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 14-17 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 8-10 ATS before TB. CAR 2-9 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 5-17 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 16-2 ATS as a DOG vs .333<opp. CAR 13-1 ATS as a non-div DOG vs .333<opp. CAR 1-6 ATS L7 AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. TENN 7-13 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. TENN 25-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 30-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TENN 2-9 ATS off BB SUU losses vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN 15-9 SU & 15-9 ATS vs NFC SOUTH. TENN 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS vs .<500 NFC SOUTH opp. TENN 9-2 ATS before INDY. TENN 3-18 ATS vs non-div opp off SU loss >10pts. TENN 9-6-1 ATS after JAGS. Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses. CAR’s only win this season was a 2pt win over HOU. This is a game that TENN could actually win. They need to win this game because it would not look good for HC Mike Vrabel if they lost. CAR #24 RUSH DEF. TENN needs to run the ball as many times as they can in this game because CAR can’t stop the run. LW, vs DAL CAR gave up 107yds and DAL could have rushed for more. No on expects CAR to do much in this game but TENN is desperate for a win. The season is over for TENN but they need to see if RB Derrick Henry still has life in him. He needs to get going. If TENN looses here and loses BIG, then Vrabel is gone and so is most of the team. TENN needs a BIG win here. Lay the points.
THE PICK: TENN-3 ½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (5-5), (6-4) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS TB+2 ½
LW, TB was +11 ½ @SF. TB wasn’t winning this game but they had chances to make it close. Unfortunately, how many times can you go to WR Mike Evans? You can’t and TB lost 27-14. SF has too many weapons on OFF & DEF to beat teams that don’t match up. INDY is coming off a bye. Before their bye, they played NE in Germany. With INDY leading 10-6, NE QB Mac Jones missed a completely wide open receiver in the endzone and threw to an INDY defender instead. The result, an INT for INDY and a win 10-6 instead of a 13-10 loss. INDY got away with one after I said NE was desperate for a win here. Jones didn’t get the memo and INDY went into their bye with a lucky win. L5 TB vs INDY, TB 3-2 SU but 13-1 ATS. TB 11-15-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. TB 49-31-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 41-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 29-29-2 AWAY vs non-div. TB 3-12-1 ATS before CAR. INDY 12-3-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. INDY 35-34-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 30-41-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 10-5 ATS before TENN. INDY 23-16 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 8-14 ATS vs .400> opp off SUATS loss. INDY 7-1 ATS L8 w/rest. INDY 0-5 ATS 1-5 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. TB has to make some adjustments. They are not ready for SF but they certainly should beat INDY. INDY #25 TOT DEF w/#25 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. TB QB Baker Mayfield should be all over this. Minshew is also a gunslinger and will take unnecessary chances and turn the ball over. Against a lousy team like NE, Minshew had 1INT and INDY won because Mac Jones gave the game away. Otherwise, INDY loses. I like TB here getting points because I always say when two terrible teams play each other, take the one with points. These two teams have major deficiencies and need to be addressed in the Off-season. Mayfield is not the long term solution in TB and INDY will start over with QB Anthony Richardson when he is done with his injury.
THE PICK: TB+2 ½
New England Patriots (2-8), (2-8) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ New York Giants (3-8), (3-7-1) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-2-1) ATS NYG+3
LW, NYG beat WASH 31-19. NYG QB Tommy DeVito was sacked 9x but still had a good game. NYG RB Saquon Barkley had a good game. The DEF for NYG generated 6turnovers and yet this game was NYG 24-19 with WASH driving. WASH QB Sam Howell threw a PICK6 and it was then over, 31-19. The DEF for NYG was lucky because if you just looked at the stats for this game, WASH rushed for 174yd, 1td on 28 carries and passed for 229 yds. But 3INTS and 3fubles will ultimately destroy you every time. Before their bye, NE was in Germany playing INDY. This was a defensive battle and INDY was leading 10-6 late when NE was driving. NE had 2nd & 12 at the INDY 15. NE QB Mac Jones had a receiver wide open in the endzone but threw it to an INDY defender who intercepted the ball. NE should have won the game 13-10 but lost 10-6. NE ran the ball well getting 167yd on 36 carries. I said NE was desperate but they couldn’t do it even with their backs against the wall. L4 NYG vs NE, NE 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. NE 9-7 ATS since 2007 after their bye. NE 38-39-3 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 38-30-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 7-4 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. NE 6-1 ATS L7 AWAY w/rest. NE 12-9 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. NYG 16-23 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NYG 25-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 25-36-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 11-6-1 ATS after WASH. NYG 5-8-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG 6<pts. NYG 4-7-1 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU DOG win. NE HC Bill Belichick has not said who his starting QB for this game will be. It doesn’t matter because neither one is a game changer. If Belichick is the HC in the off-season, NE needs to retool and get quality receivers as a start. Right now, they are not reliable. NYG played very well LW but that doesn’t cover up the fact that they have a slew of problems that need to be addressed. As long as RB Saquon Barkley is in the lineup for NYG, they have a shot vs terrible teams. They have 2 games vs PHILLY that are losses, HOME gms vs GB & LAR & @NO. This could be the last game that NE wins this season. It would give them a good draft slot. NE might not win another gae either and would also have a good draft slot. I said NE was desperate for a win vs INDY but now they are just playing out the string and playing for jobs. When two terrible teams play each other, take the one with the points. I like NYG here because they can score, NE can’t. This could be interesting.
THE PICK: NYG+3
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3), (7-3) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS HOU+1 ½
LW, JAGS @HOME took care of TENN easily, 34-14. JAGS needed the win after being embarrassed @HOME by SF. JAGS spread the OFF nicely between rushes and passes and TENN was caught flat footed. JAGS rushed for 128yds & 2tds on 36 carries. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence passed for 262yds , 2tds & 0INTS. JAGS had 0turnovers while recovering 2TENN fumbles that led to 2tds by JAGS. LW, HOU @HOME was in a dogfight with ARZ. ARZ should have kicked fgs when they had the chance but opted for turning the ball over on downs 2straight times and then turning the ball over again on downs when they had no choice but to go for it. This essentially ended the game for ARZ and they could not get any more points going further as the HOU DEF held. HOU held on for the win, 21-16. HOU QB CJ Stroud had 3INTs but the HOU DEF held on and bailed him out for the win. L16 HOU(H) vs JAGS, HOU 12-4 SU & 8-8 ATS. L23 HOU vs JAGS, ROAD 16-7 ATS. L11 HOU vs JAGS, HOU 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS. L33 JAS vs HOU, HOU 23-10 SU & 19-14 ATS. JAGS 7-5 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. JAGS 25-22 ATS as a FAV in NOV. JAGS 25-24-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 23-23-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. JAGS 10-6 ATS after TENN. JAGS 4-9 ATS off DD SU win vs .500>opp. HOU 15-18 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. HOU 11-6 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. HOU 27-22-3 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 18-19 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 15-11 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. This game is a good matchup because they are two upward teams with two young QBs. It will be an exciting game to watch. HOU has been playing well with three straight wins vs TB, @CINNCY(Burrow was present) & ARZ. These two teams met in wk 3 @JAGS and HOU put a whooping on the JAGS 37-17. There is a revenge factor here for JAGS as they certainly are looking to capture the AFC SOUTH and not get swept by HOU in the series. HOU #2 PASS OFF vs JAGS #29 PASS DEF. This is where JAGS may have a problem because their PASS DEF needs work. JAGS three losses are against KC, HOU & SF. All three were @HOME. JAGS haven’t lost AWAY but, they haven’t really played anyone except BUFF in London. They beat @INDY, @NO, @PITT & technically @BUFF. HOU gives them problems. In the week 3 matchup, HOU didn’t sack Stroud 1x and he was able to spread the ball around nicely. Last week vs ARZ Stroud spread the ball around to 8different receivers. That will be hard to cover for JAGS. Based on the matchup, I like HOU here to sweep the series. The pass DEF for JAGS is their Achilles heel and that is what they need to improve in the off-season. They do not have a shut down corner and a QB coming in can beat them badly. However, HOU cannot come in and play the same game as they did in wk 3, JAGS will be ready. They need to disguise things and mix it up which I think HOU will do.
THE PICK: HOU+1 ½
Sunday November 26th, 2023 4:00pm
Cleveland Browns (7-3), (5-5) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (5-5), (3-7) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS CLEV+1 ½
LW, CLEV with a backup QB, shut down PITT 13-10. Not much scoring in this one but, CLEV stopped PITT every step of the way and PITT’s only scoring was a long td run. Other than that the CLEV DEF stopped PITT cold. On SNF, MINN left the door open for DEN to win the game. MINN was playing a god game but a little on the conservative side which DEN took advantage of late in the game for a 21-20 win. I liked MINN+2 because MINN QB Joshua Dobbs was not getting the protection he needed from the O-LINE and fgs were made instead of tds. But, DEN QB Russell Wilson took advantage of coverages and moved down the field. But DEN also converted 2turnovers to 2fgs which helped them set up the late td which won the game. L8 CLEV vs DEN, DEN 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. CLEV 13-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 33-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEV 24-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 10-8-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. DEN 11-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DEN 44-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 32-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEV has a legitimate chance at getting a wild card berth out of the AFC NORTH. They only have one more game to play vs the AFC NORTH and that is their last game of the season @CINNCY. CLEV’s schedule is not that bad and with the team they have they should end up with at least eleven wins. DEN has had a bit of a resurgence and that means they are sticking to the script. That also means that their game plan will be the same and predictable. But CLEV has a better DEF than MINN and they create turnovers. CLEV #1 TOT DEF w/#11 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. In the four game winning streak for DEN, QB Russell Wilson has 7tds, 0INTs and 2fumbles. They have beaten some impressive teams, vs GB, vs KC, @BUFF & vs MINN. Here’s why I like CLEV in this game. DEN #32 RUSH DEF vs CLEV #3 RUSH OFF. If I’m the HC of CLEV, I rush as much as I can in this game with screen passes until the DEN DEF is so tired they fall down. If CLEV doesn’t win this game, they are not for real. They have to play this game like their life depends on it because they are trying to turn the corner for the franchise. I like a motivated CLEV team here unless they start making BIG mistakes. CLEV should win by at least a td.
THE PICK: CLEV+1 ½
Los Angels Rams (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (2-9), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (4-1) ATS ARZ+1 ½
LW, LAR were lucky to win the game 17-16. LAR HC Sean McVay who makes suspect calls all the time, made another suspect call late in the game vs SEA that should have cost LAR the game. Instead of running the ball and making SEA call timeouts, he called a pass ad it fell incomplete. After LAR kicked a fg, SEA went down the field but missed a winning fg with no time on the clock. LAR escaped 17-16. I will give LAR credit, they were down 13-7 and came back to win but, barely. LW, ARZ was down 21-16 and instead of kicking fgs, ARZ HC Jonathan Gannon went for it. ARZ failed three different times and the final score ended HOU 21-16. ARZ should have won this game. The ARZ DEF played tough creating 3INTS but turning them into 0pts. L16 LAR @ARZ, LAR 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. L20 LAR vs ARZ, LAR 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS. L16 LAR vs ARZ, LAR 12-4 ATS. L24 LAR vs ARZ, ROAD 16-8 ATS. LAR 17-15-1 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 26-34-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 22-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 21-34 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. LAR 9-5 ATS after SEA. LAR 13-4 ATS vs <.333 opp. LAR 10-1 ATS AWAY vs <.333 opp. LAR 7-0 ATS L7 as a conf ROAD FAV vs <.333 opp. ARZ 17-16-1 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 29-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 44-49 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 28-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 21-9 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 21-9 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 12-1 ATS @HOME off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ 8-1 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ should have won last week but their HC made some blunder calls of his own. ARZ is on a bounceback. I say this because with QB Kyler Murray and RB James Conner at full strength it gives the team a better chance to win. LAR is really not that good and masks their deficiencies. LAR Cooper Cupp is questionable for this game with an ankle injury and they may get back RB Kyren Williams. Williams rushed for 158yds & 1td on 20 carries vs ARZ. There are a lot of injuries for ARZ and this week they were non-participants. For some reason, LAR plays ARZ well no matter where they play. In wk 6 LAR @HOME beat ARZ 26-9. But that was without QB Kyler Murray & RB James Connor. This game will be shootout. This game could go either way because neither of these teams are going anywhere but they are playing for jobs. I think LAR will manage a win here as it will probably come down to the end where whoever has the ball last will win.
THE PICK: LAR-1 ½
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-6), (6-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS LV+9
On MNF KC looked pretty good with a 17-7 lead at halftime. But, KC wasn’t playing any ordinary team. They were playing the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles made adjustments, stopped KC cold and scored 2tds of their own to win 21-17. Add in a few dropped passes and a dropped td pass by KC and you have the loss. KC QB Pat Mahomes was on but his receivers were off. The KC DEF did their job until they couldn’t and then KC lost. LW, LV was @MIA. This wasn’t so much about LV playing well as it was about MIA playing poorly. LV did play poorly with 3INTS & 36yds rushing but, MIA squandered opportunities to blowout this game. It took a very late INT by MIA in the endzone to seal a paltry 20-13 win. L16 KC @LV, KC 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS. L12 KC vs LV, KC 10-2 SU & 7-5 ATS. L32 LV vs KC, ROAD 18-14 SU & 19-13 ATS. L32 LV vs KC, DOG 17-13 ATS 2 PICK’EMS. KC 25-24-1 ATS L50 as a ROAD FAV. KC 8-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. KC 35-51 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 21-31 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. KC 29-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 0-6 ATS as a FAV off SU MNF loss. KC 4-11 ATS after MNF. KC 19-10 ATS L29 after an SU loss. LV 18-17-1 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. LV 8-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. LV 43-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 26-37-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 35-21 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 4-17 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 5-1 ATS L6 @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. KC is pissed off. The team looked unfocused in their MNF loss vs PHILLY. A lot of dropped passes and some secondary confusion did them in. Don’t blame the loss on Mahomes because he was right on with his passes. I can tell you this, KC HC Andy Reid will be giving an earful to the team and they will be focused this week @LV. LV may have a new HC in Antonio Pierce but they have a long way to go to get to sustainability and winning consistently. KC is on a bounceback here and pissed off. KC #8 TOT OFF vs LV #21 TOT DEF. Plus, KC #4 TOT DEF vs LV #29 TOT OFF. Do you get where I’m going with this? Lay the points here because KC on a bounceback is not a team you want to face.
THE PICK: KC-9
Buffalo Bills (6-5), (4-7) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), (7-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (2-2) ATS BUFF+3
LW, BUFF was on a BIG bounceback after their loss @HOME to DEN. I called it perfectly and they beat NYJ 32-6. BUFF also found a run game that produced 130yds on 38 carries. BUFF dominated on both sides of the ball and BUFF QB Josh Allen didn’t fall into any traps. On MNF, PHILLY was @KC. Everyone loved KC but I liked PHILLY+3. PHILLY was down 17-7 at the half but they made adjustments and shut down the KC OFF in the 2nd half. PHILLY found just enough OFF to score 2tds and win 21-17. That is what a good team does, makes adjustments and shuts teams down. Bu, if it weren’t for dropped td pass very late in the game by KC, PHILLY might have lost. But things like that happen. L4 BUFF vs PHILLY, BUFF 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS incl BUFF @PHILLY, BUFF 0-2 SUATS. BUFF 7-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. BUFF 29-34-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BUFF 26-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 5-12 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 10-16-1 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 5-0-1 ATS as a DOG 6<pts after allowing 10<pts. BUFF 4-12-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 5-12 ATS after MNF. PHILLY 7-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PHILLY 34-33-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 44-35-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 27-16 ATS vs non-conf opp. PHILLY 118-8 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 10-1 ATS @HOME after SU DOG win. BUFF beat NYJ, so what! BUFF was due for a blowout win and NYJ was standing in their way. Now they play a real team. PHILLY was not overjoyed about their win because there were areas that need adjustments. PHILLY #1 RUSH DEF but, KC rushed for 168yds on 30 carries. PHILLY did make adjustments and KC was not able to rush effectively in the 2nd half. Be sure that PHILLY will not let BUFF get going running the ball and will make BUFF throw a lot. The secondary is very deceptive for PHILLY as they let you think a guy is open when he is not. PHILLY creates turnovers and that is what separates them from the rest. BUFF has a tough game ahead of them and PHILLY will play tighter in this game. BUFF is still overrated and they will make mistakes against PHILLY. BUFF’s last three wins are against NYG, TB & NYJ. Not exactly playoff teams. I like PHILLY winning by more than a td. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PHILLY-3
Sunday November 26th, 2023 8:20pm
Baltimore Ravens (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6), (4-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS LAC+4
On TNF, BALT got a gift. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow left the game with an injured wrist. BALT was able to get a big lead and only allowed a dummy td to make the final score look closer at 34-20. CINNCY was playing catchup all night after extinguishing a 10-7 lead. That is when Burrow left and BALT took over. CINNCY was banged up but BALT took advantage and did not turn the ball over. LAC went into GB as a -3 FAV. I liked them on a bounceback loss vs DET and GB was right for the pickings. But as usual, LAC had problems scoring from the redzone and actually turned the ball over and GB was able to pull out a win 23-20. HC Brandon Staley was animated in his defense of his team in the post game news conference. But it is clearly his fault LAC lost, again. His play calling is suspect at times as he continues to call the team’s defensive plays. L9 BALT vs LAC, BALT 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS. BALT 20-17-1 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 7-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. BALT 8-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. BALT 7-10 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BALT 43-33-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 33-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 9-11 ATS L20 vs AFC WEST. BALT 4-0 ATS L4 after TNF. LAC 6-9-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. LAC 13-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 15-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 28-39 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 38-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 10-2 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .600>opp. LAC 2-7 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss vs .666>opp. LAC 4-10 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts vs opp off SUATS win. 3-14 ATS vs opp w/rest. LAC 0-9 ATS L9 @HOME vs opp w/rest. Sometimes the DEF for BALT gets overlooked because of the explosive OFF that BALT has but they make stops when necessary. BALT#3 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. The BALT DEF has 10INTS & 44 sacks. Don’t expect LAC to be scoring too many points in this game even though they are in a double bounce back. They are frustrated and clearly a change is in order. On top of it LAC DE Joey Bosa injured his foot in the GB game and is probably doubtful for this game which will give BALT QB Lamar Jackson more time to dissect the already poor LAC DEF. LAC #31 TOT DEF. LAC OLB Khalil Mack has a bad habit of disappearing when the team needs him most. Without Bosa in there, he will be neutralized. LAC is a mistake prone team run by an HC that makes plenty of mistakes and doesn’t take responsibility for those mistakes. LAC is a talented team and should be at the top of the AFC WEST. But instead, they are at the bottom. BALT is a team that is putting it all together and doesn’t give up much unless it is vs another AFC NORTH team. Lay the points here as BALT rolls.
THE PICK: BALT-4
Monday November 27th, 2023 8:15pm
Chicago Bears (3-8), (5-6) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (6-5), (8-3) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CHI+3 ½
On SNF, MINN lost a heartbreaker. They were playing well but a little conservative and they were holding their own against a rejuvenated DEN team for most of the game. MINN was up 17-9 going into the 4th qtr but it seemed that the DEN OFF was able to move up and down the field. DEN kicked 2fgs and MINN answered with a fg to make the score, MINN 20-15. But, DEN put together a drive in the last few minutes that put them ahead 21-20. MINN couldn’t get anything going in the last minute and that is where it ended. MINN QB Joshua Dobbs played his heart out and MINN got their run game going for 175yds & 1td on 36 carries. The MINN DEF held the DEN run game to 46 yds and made DEN QB Russell Wilson beat them in the air. LW, CHI was working on what would have been a BIG upset @DET. CHI was up 26-14 with 4:15 left in the game. Up to that point, CHI QB Justin Fields was on fire and it looked like the DET DEF couldn’t make stops. But DET got going with a td, then stopped CHI on a 3 and out and then scored another td to make the score DET 29-26. But, then Fields had the ball knocked out of his hands and it was kicked out of the endzone for a DET safety and the final was DET 31-26. CHI couldn’t close out the game and DET surged ahead. L16 CHI @MINN, CHI 5-11 SU but 7-8-1 ATS. L33 CHI vs MINN, HOME 17-14-1 ATS 1NL. L17 CHI vs MINN, FAV 11-4-1 ATS 1NL. CHI 14-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. CHI 5-1 ATS L6 AWAY on MNF. CHI 8-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. 10-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CHI 42-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 46-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 26-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 4-7-1 ATS as a DIV ROAD DOG <6pts. MINN 8-7 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. MINN 2-2 ATS vs div on MNF. MINN 12-4 ATS since 2007 before their bye. MINN 16-7 ATS @HOME off SU loss. MINN 12-3-1 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. MINN 1-6 ATS L7 vs .350< opp w/revenge. These two teams met in wk 6 @CHI with MINN knocking out CHI QB Justin Fields with a wrist injury. In came QB Tyson Bangent for CHI and he was horrible. MINN won that game 19-13 even though CHI managed to rush for 162yds & 1td on 36 carries. That wrist injury sidelined Fields for 4 games. He may have some revenge on his mind this week. In his absence, CHI went 2-2. MINN QB Kirk Cousins played in that game before he was injured as well. If CHI wins this game it will not be with their running game. MINN#7 RUSH DEF. The MINN RUSH DEF has certainly gotten better since that game but Fields is more mobile than Russell Wilson. CHI will have to win this game in the air and that is where Fields has made most of his mistakes. Both of these teams are coming off heartbreaking losses but the PASS DEF for both of these teams has gotten better since the beginning of the season but still stand at MINN #17 PASS DEF & CHI #26 PASS DEF. The MINN DEF has 9INTS & 29 sacks while the CHI DEF has 9INTS & 15 sacks. MINN QB Joshua Dobbs is more mobile than Kirk Cousins. I like MINN here @HOME in a bounceback. They should win by more than 3pts.
THE PICK: MINN-3 ½
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