2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 8 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday October 24^th, 2024 8:15pm

Minnesota Vikings (5-1), (5-1) ATS, (2-) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                   LAR+3

LW, I liked LAR-4 @HOME vs LV. I said in my analysis what would happen in this game but LAR almost blew it. LAR K Joshua Kelly missed an extra point and a chip shot fg. But the LAR DEF came through because LV was down 2WRS in Adams(recently traded) & Jakobi Meyers(out). LAR was able to take chances and they worked out. LAR DEF created 3INTS & 1fumble but still had trouble in the 4^th qtr. LAR DEF knocked out LV QB Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew had 3INTs & 1fumble. LAR hung on for a 20-15 win. LAR QB Matthew Stafford didn’t look great but the running game took him off the hook for 115yds & 2tds on 28carries. LW, I knew that DET vs MINN was going to be a battle. I said in my analysis that it would be a close game and that it wasn’t going to be a blowout by either team. This game went down to the end & DET RB David Montgomery had a fumble that MINN was able to turn into 7pts. DET was up 28-17 in the 4^th qtr and MINN battled back for a 29-28 lead but there was just enough time for DET to get a drive going and kick the winning fg for a 31-29 win. I liked DET in this game with the points but MINN gave it their all. MINN QB Sam Darnold had a decent game & RB Aaron Jones contributed 93yds & 1td on 14carries. L9 MINN vs LAR, MINN 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS. MINN 24-8-1 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 9-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. MINN 8-1 ATS on TNF off an SU loss. MINN 12-7 ATS on TNF. MINN 7-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. MINN 35-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 41-34-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 7-5 ATS after DET. MINN 1-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU FAV loss. LAR 11-12-1 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. LAR 7-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. LAR 2-7 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. LAR 7-13 ATS before SEA. LAR 34-43 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 34-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 6-12 ATS @HOME vs NFC NORTH. LAR have not beaten anyone that makes you say, these guys are contenders. Yes, they have many players that have been injured but, so what, so have other teams. LW, they struggled mightily @HOME vs LV and they should have score more points. The only other win that LAR has is @HOME vs SF. SF has their own problems and LAR should never have won that game being down double digits in the 4^th qtr. As for losses, LAR has lost @DET, @ARZ, @CHI & vs GB. People say that LAR is missing 2 BIG WRs in Nacua & Kupp. Well, opposing teams would adjust as well. MINN is on a BIG bounceback here and is battling DET & GB for the NFC NORTH title. MINN can ill afford to start getting into a losing streak after starting the season so well. Sam Darnold is playing decent enough so that the team around him can win. The DEF is making plays and the presence of RB Aaron Jones in the lineup takes a lot of pressure off of Darnold. Plus, Darnold is getting the ball to the receiver corps. LAR WR Cooper Kupp may play this week but MINN on a bounceback weighs heavy. No one goes undefeated and this loss for MINN may be a good thing and they will go back and try to improve. I like that the spread is small and MINN should win outright and cover the spread. Darnold has been getting sacked a lot, 18x, but, has not fumbled a lot. LAR gets to the QB and he needs to hold on. Last week, LV was down 2WRs so LAR DEF could take chances with rushing the QB. This week, LAR DEF will have their hands full. Darnold still has to be careful but I like MINN here.      

THE PICK: MINN-3

Sunday October 27^th, 2024 1:00pm

Baltimore Ravens (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-6), (2-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                                    CLEV+9

LW on MNF, BALT spotted TB a 10-0 lead @TB. I liked BALT-3 ½ and BALT delivered. BALT scored 41straight points until they went into their soft DEF in the 4^th qtr. But before that BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw 5tds & BALT RB Derrick Henry rushed for 169yds. BALT gave up 21pts to TB in the 4^th qtr but BALT won 41-31. LW, CLEV was @HOME vs CINNCY. I liked CINNCY-6 but the main story is that CLEV QB Deshaun Watson suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon. He is out for the rest of the season. CLEV QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson came in but he threw 2INTS and was pulled for QB Jameis Winston who led a td drive late to make the final score CINNCY 21-14. CINNCY was leading 21-6 when Winston led the drive to try to make a miraculous comeback to no avail. Winston will be the starter going forward. CLEV RB Nick Chubb returned for his 1^st game after suffering a knee injury early last season. He was a little rusty but should be fine going forward. L17 BALT @CLEV, BALT 12-5 SU & 12-5 ATS. L29 BALT vs CLEV, ROAD 19-10 ATS. L32 BALT vs CLEV, BALT 25-7 SU & 20-12 ATS. BALT 11-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. BALT 35-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 33-40-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 18-20-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 25-17 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 8-18-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CLEV 27-21-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEV 32-41-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 14-14-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CLEV 3-9 ATS off SU Div loss vs >.500opp. CLEV 15-19-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 6-13-2 ATS off SU Div loss. CLEV 4-14 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. CLEV 6-13-1 ATS after CINNCY. CLEV 10-1 ATS L11 off SU loss vs .500>opp. Yes, CLEV QB Deshaun Watson is again out for the rest of the season with another injury. But this is a division game and BALT has trouble with their division rivals no matter what the record is of their opponent and the BALT record. CLEV is a mess but they seem to play division rivals tough. There are two BIG factors why I like CLEV here. Mind you that CLEV isn’t winning this game unless BALT all of a sudden has turnoveritous and can’t find the ball. But BALT gives up a lot of points in the 4^th qtr and that is where the backdoor cover comes in. BALT will be up at least a couple of tds but CLEV will have the ball and BALT will play prevent DEF. CLEV will score a td that will not change who wins, just the final score and in this case the final score will look closer than what actually occurred on the field. Also, Jameis Winston is starting for CLEV. He needs to show that he is a viable backup or else CLEV will look for someone who can at least make their season competitive. Forget about playoffs as this team isn’t going there. But, they need to keep the fans coming to the stadium so CLEV has to show the will to fight. Also, RB Nick Chubb will get going and show that he has a lot still left in the tank. He should be able to take some pressure off of Winston in this gamer. For these reasons, I like CLEV plus the points. BALT will get their points and yds but CLEV will get the backdoor cover.

THE PICK: CLEV+9

Tennessee Titans (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (5-1), (5-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                                 TENN+11

LW, DET was @MINN. I liked DET+2 ½ because I felt strongly that DET is the better team. They needed a last minute fg to win 31029 but t DET got the job done. There was fumble by DET RB David Montgomery that gave MINN the lead but DET put together a drive that set up the winning fg. It was an exciting game but I felt strongly that DET would win outright. It was tough game where the lead went back and forth but DET prevailed. LW, TENN started out great @ BUFF with a 10-0 lead but then the roof caved in and BUFF scored 34straight points, with 27 of those points scored in the 2^nd half. The TENN DEF couldn’t stop the BUFF express. BUFF scored on all five possessions in the 2^nd half. The TENN DEF couldn’t make a stop to control the game. Mason Rudolph was the QB for TENN. He was in because Will Levis was injured. L5 TENN vs DET, TENN 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. TENN 12-10-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. TENN 36-31 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 35-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. TENN 9-3-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs .333>opp. TENN 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. TENN 11-4 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 13-5 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. DET 5-15 ATS after MINN. DET 5-15 ATS before GB. DET 25-38 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 21-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 5-6 ATS as a FAV 7>pts @HOME vs non-div. TENN has already thrown in the towel on this season. They made a trade with KC(of all teams) to send WR DeAndre Hopkins to KC and TENN is paying the rest of his salary in exchange for a conditional 4^th round choice. Plus, TENN made a trade with SEA as well but it wasn’t a BIG name dropper like this one. If you looked at TENN’s roster, there is a lot of talent there but it doesn’t always translate to the field. TENN is missing the right coaching and the QB situation is very iffy. TENN needs to be all in on Will Levis to see if there is anything there and if not, move on. DET is a different team entirely. The coaching situation is top notch led by Gambler HC Dan Campbell and assistants that know what they are doing like DC Aaron Glenn. Glenn knows what to dial up even if the DEF matchup isn’t favorable for DET. However, DET has a star studded OFF that works efficiently. DET #2 TOT OFF w/#4 RUSH OFF & #3 PASS OFF vs TENN #1 TOT DEF. The reason why I’m not worried here because of the DET RBs. The 1-2 combo works so efficiently with Gibbs & Montgomery that eventually the opposing DEFs just give up. LW, Gibbs & Montgomery combined for 147yds & 2 tds on 24carries and the MINN DEF is #2 in the NFL. This game has blowout written all over it unless DET gets cocky with their play selection and starts to take it easy on scoring opportunities. TENN QB Will Levis is questionable for this game with a sore shoulder. 

THE PICK: DET-11  

Arizona Cardinals (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (2-4), (1-4-1) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-2-1) ATS                              ARZ+3

On MNF, RZ @HOME hung tough vs LAC when they needed to be and kept LAC out of the endzone. LAC had to kick 5fgs for 15pts and did not score a td even though they had almost 400yds of OFF. ARZ was able to rush for 181yds & 1td on 29carries. ARZ RB James Conner continues to add value with another 100yds performance. However, ARZ needed a last second fg to pull this one out 17-15. LW, MIA was @INDY. I figured, MIA was due but they lost QB Tyler Huntley and the OFF for MIA couldn’t get going even after leading 10-3 at the half. INDY hung tough and didn’t allow MIA any more pints for a 16-10 win. MIA had their chances in this game but it looks like this team has much more problems then just an injured QB. The DEF for MIA played well but the OFF couldn’t get going and turnovers were costly as a fumble by MIA RB Raheem Mostert turned into a td by INDY. L5 ARZ vs MIA, ARZ 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. ARZ 25-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 42-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 23-12 ATS as a DOG vs <.500opp. MIA 14-10 ATS before BUFF. MIA 31-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MIA 32-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 1-8 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. MIA 3-13-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 17-12 ATS before div ROAD gm. MIA 6-14 ATS @HOME vs <.500 opp off SU win. MIA has a tough DEF. MIA #4 TOT DEF w/#1PASS DEF & #17 RUSH DEF. But the problem is that their OFF can’t get going. MIA’s only two wins were vs JAGS & NE. ARZ is a herky jerky team. You really don’t know what to expect week to week. But, they do like to run. ARZ #6 RUSH OFF. Plus, if ARZ QB Kyler Murray sees an opportunity, he will take off. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa is slated to come back for this game. If and how he plays is up for grabs. If he plays, he will be rusty. The key for ARZ is their run game. If it is successful Murray ca then drop in passes and very successfully. If it is stopped and Murray has to rely totally on his arm, ARZ falters. I like this game being tight and not a blowout by either team. It could be a another game for ARZ that goes down to the wire. But they like it like that. I like ARZ with the points here.   

THE PICK: ARZ+3

New York Jets (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-6), (1-5-1) ATS, (0-3), (0-2-1) ATS                                        NE+6 ½  

On SNF, I liked NYJ -2 @PITT. PITT QB Russell Wilson was getting his 1^st start and I figured he would be a little rusty. Plus, with WR Davante Adams coming to NYJ, you would think that the OFF for NYJ would be invigorated. Well, Wilson looked good, NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers still looks old and Wilson looked great. NYJ was leading 15-6 and it looked like NYJ had a chance to take this game but Wilson got rolling and PITT scored 31staright pts to win 37-15. Rodgers had 2INTs & WR Adams had just 3catches for 30yds & 0tds. The turning point of the game was with NYJ up 15-6 and driving, Rodgers threw an INT that he shouldn’t have and PITT turned it around for a td. The score should have been NYJ 22-6, instead it was 15-13 and the momentum was clearly with PITT. The PITT DEF slammed the door on NYJ in the 2^nd half and NYJ could do nothing to respond. LW, NE was in London vs JAGS. JAGS were desperate for a win and who better to play than NE. NE QB Drake Maye played a decent game but had no help from the running game which amounted to 38yds on 15carrries. NE didn’t turn the ball over but JAGS made the most of their opportunities and won 32-16. JAGS were up 25-10 when NE scored a td to cut the lead to 25-16 but got no further. JAGS then added a td late in the game. JAGS ran over NE for 171yds & 2tds on 39carries. L17 NYJ @ NE, NYJ 2-15 SU & 8-9 ATS. L23 NYJ @ NE , NYJ 10-13 ATS. L25 NYJ vs NE, NYJ 13-12 ATS. L28 NYJ vs NE, ROAD 14-14 ATS. NYJ vs NE in Oct, NYJ 6-15 ATS. NYJ 3-11-1 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 11-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYJ 31-34-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 26-24-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYJ 31-19 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NYJ 5-15 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 0-4 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 10-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 0-11 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss vs conf opp. NE 6-10-2 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. NE 27-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 39-35-1 ATS @HOME in NE. NE 25-23 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NE 14-4 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 16-16-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 1-11 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss. NE 15-13 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NYJ lost another opportunity to win a game they should have. But when things look down, there is a always a game vs NE. NE #21 RUSH DEF & #25 PASS DEF. This is a game that NYJ should run the ball almost every time so that Rodgers can just drop passes all over the place instead of having to carry the load. These two teams played in wk 3 on TNF with NYJ winning 24-3. It was a domination game and I see that happening again. The O-LINE is still a BIG problem for NE and NYJ are trying to get that 1^st win for HC Jeff Ulbrich. Plus, Rodgers needs a good game. He has shown his age and he keeps talking, go figure. This is a game that NYJ should have a good laugh about because they will not be a laughing in most of the games after this one. They will be tough because NYJ are not really that good, are not coached well and Rodgers is in decline. But for this game, NYJ will have a field day. There may be some revenge on the part of NE but they don’t have the personnel to do it. The DEF for NYJ will also show up after getting run over last week @PITT. Lay the points here as I rarely say, NYJ rolls.   

THE PICK: NYJ-6 ½

Atlanta Falcons (4-3), (3-4) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                           TB+2 ½  

LW, ATL was @HOME vs SEA. It seemed that the ATL DEF could not stop SEA. SEA had a 17-7 lead at the half and ATL never really caught up. ATL got close with a td in the 3^rd period to make the score, SEA 17-14 but it didn’t help that SEA answered right back with a td to make the score SEA 24-14. Then ATL QB Kirk Cousins was caught out of the pocket and was stripped sacked and the ball was returned for 64yds and a td. The score was now SEA 31-14 en route to a 34-14 SEA win. Cousins had 2INTS & the fumble and was sacked 3x. ATL was playing catchup in this game but just didn’t have it. On MNF TB was @HOME vs BALT. I liked BALT -3 ½ but TB couldn’t stop the BALT express. TB had a 10-0 lead in the 1^st qtr but the game then turned around. This game got to BALT 41-10 in the 4^th qtr before TB made a comeback that made the final score respectable BALT 41-31. BALT rushed for 244yds on 30 carries while BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw 5tds. TB suffered injuries to their two top receivers which is detailed below. L17 ATL @TB, ATL 9-8 SU & 8-8-1 ATS. L28 ATL vs TB, FAV 15-12-1 ATS. L27 ATL vs TB, HOME 14-12-1 ATS. L17 TB vs ATL, ATL 10-7 ATS. ATL 10-14 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 34-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 27-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. ATL 25-32 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 2-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 9-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. TB 9-13-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TB 26-41-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 20-35-4 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 20-27 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. These two teams met a few weeks ago in ATL on TNF in week 5 with ATL winning in OT 36-30. TB had this game won with the ball and the lead at 1:44 left in the game. TB decided to play like they wanted to lose and ATL kicked a fg to tie and send into OT. Then ATL drove the ball in OT and Cousins throws a pass that WR KhaDarel Hodge catches and splits the TB secondary and races all the way for a td and a 26-30 ATL win. A seep in a division series doesn’t happen often and that is one of the reason’s why I like TB here. Both teams are coming off a loss. TB was down BIG vs BALT but made the final score look respectable because BALT plays no DEF in the 4^th qtr. ATL made some mistakes @HOME vs SEA and let the game get out of hand. TB’s DEF gives up a lot TB #31 TOT DEF but the TB OFF can get the job done, TB #5 TOT OFF.  However, Tb did lose two of their receivers in the loss to BALT. TB WR Chris Godwin injured hi ankle and will be out for the rest of the season. TB WR Mike Evans injured his hamstring and will likely be out through week 11. TB has an array of receivers and these are two big shoes to fill but, TB QB Baker Mayfield has a knack for spreading the ball around. TB will be pumped @HOME as both teams have a lot on the line for this game in NFC SOUTH. Yes, ATL has a lot of playmakers but Cousins makes mistakes as he did vs SEA, TB take note. I like TB with the points here.

THE PICK: TB+2 ½     

Chicago Bears (4-2), (5-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS         WASH+2 ½

LW, WASH @HOME beat the crap out of CAR. I knew WASH would and that’s what happened, 40-7. One drawback is that WASH QB Jayden Daniels suffered a rib injury and is day-to-day. In stepped in Marcus Mariota and he didn’t miss a beat. WASH ran over CAR for 214yds & 1td on 37carries. This game was tune up for WASH but they did what was expected. CHI is coming off a bye and before that they beat JAGS in London, 35-16. No big whoop as JAGS stink. It was a way for CHI to get their OFF in tune and for CHI QB Caleb Williams to get more comfortable in the pocket and with the OFF. In that game, Williams threw 4tds and CHI rushed for 152yd & 1td on 29 carries. L10 CHI vs WASH, WASH 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS. CHI 6-7 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 6-9-2 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. CHI 15-7-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CHI 15-28-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 33-30-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 9-15-1 ATS w/rest(Thrs, bye). CHI 7-16 ATS L23 vs NFC EAST. WASH 18-23 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. WASH 17-12-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 9-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. WASH 34-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 37-49 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 7-4 ATS after allowing 10<pts. WASH 14-18 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 8-1 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 11-9 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. WASH 8-2 ATS off DD ATS win. Both of these teams have very young QBs and there is a lot expected from both of them. As of right now, WASH QB Jayden Daniels is day-to-day but Mariota is an adequate backup if Daniels is a scratch. CHI hasn’t beaten anyone with wins vs TENN, LAR, CAR & @JAGS. CHI lost @HOU & @INDY. WASH has beaten, NYG, @CINNCY, @ARZ, CLEV & CAR. They lost to TB & @BALT. In the 1^st game of the season WASH vs TB was a test. But in the game @BALT, WASH showed that they were resilient and could score against a very good team. Both teams have decent DEFs. CHI #5 TOT DEF & WASH #16 TOT DEF. WASH has 19sacks & 3INTS. CHI has 18sacks & 7INTS. WASH has to be careful that they don’t throw INTs no matter who the QB is. The CHI DEF is aggressive and they will take chances vs the opposing QB. WASH HC Dan Quinn is a DEF specialist so he knows a little about those things. I don’t see this game as being a high scoring game but a tight game where it may come down to a fg. I like WASH @HOME with the points.  

THE PICK: WASH+2 ½

Green Bay Packers (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), (3-3-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS              JAGS+4 ½  

LW, JAGS were the HOME team in London vs NE. I said JAGS would win because it was desperation and it was against NE. Sure enough, JAGS took care of business, 32-16. Believe it or not, NE was up 10-0 before JAGS woke up and scored 25straight points to make it 25-10 before NE & JAGS traded tds for the final score. JAGS played a lot better than they have but it was vs NE, so I’m not impressed that they have turned things around. LW, GB was -2 ½ @HOME vs HOU. I liked HOU in this game and GB needed a fg at the end to win 24-22. I said that GB QB Jordan Love would be good for a couple of INTS and he delivered with 2INTs. HOU turned those 2INTS and a punt mishap into 17pts. But in the 2^nd half the GB DEF got serious and held HOU to 4punts & 1fg. GB was trailing 19-14 at the half but clamped down on HOU but still needed a fg with :00 left on the clock to pull out the win. L5 GB vs JAGS, GB 3-2 SU but 0-5 ATS. GB 15-25-1 ATS L41 as a ROAD FAV. GB 12-7 ATS before DET. GB 39-38-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 37-29-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 9-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. GB 7-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs opp off DD SU win. JAGS 21-23 ATS L44 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 8-19 ATS in 2^nd in BB HGs. JAGS 33-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 22-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 4-18 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 6-9 ATS off DD SU win vs .5500>opp. JAGS 0-6 ATS L6 @HOME vs NFC NORTH. JAGS are still terrible and should not be thinking that maybe they found a turnaround in this season. Every team is basically beating up NE so if a team loses, they are really bad. GB is coming off a game that was vs a really tough opponent with a smart QB. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence used to be in that category but his game has taken a step back. GB is competing for the NFC NORTH title and needs to keep winning. JAGS are competing just to stay relevant and that’s not working out. This is the matchup to look for in this game, GB #6 TOT OFF w/#10 PASS OFF vs JAGS #27 TOT DEF w/#31 PASS DEF. GB has a healthy receiver corps and Love should be able to spread the ball around efficiently. If GB can get 70yds out of their RBs, that will open up the passing lanes and Love will have a field day. Also, the GB DEF will create a couple of turnovers in this game because JAGS will be playing catchup and will be one dimensional. After a tough game @HOME for GB that went back and forth, I like GB on the road laying the points here.

THE PICK: GB-4 ½

Indianapolis Colts (4-3), (4-2-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Houston Texans (5-2), (3-3-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                  INDY+6

LW, HOU took it on the chin with a last minute loss @GB. Two young QBs dueling it out. GB QB Jordan Love tends to throw INTs and HOU capitalized on Love’s 2INTs & a muffed punt with 17pts. But in the 2^nd half HOU could only mange 3pts after leading at halftime 19-14. GB ran a drive with 1:44 left in the game and kicked a fg with :00 left to win 24-22. I liked HOU+ 2 ½ because I felt strongly that HOU would win and they should have. HOU RB Joe Mixon did outplay GB RB Josh Jacobs as I said he would but, GB got the win. LW, INDY got very lucky. INDY was losing 10-3 in the 3^rd qtr when they knocked out MIA QB Tyler Huntley to an injury. In comes Tim Boyle who wasn’t that effective. MIA RB Raheem Mostert fumbled in the 2^nd half and INDY turned that into a td. A calamity of errors, a missed fg and bad play for MIA contributed to a 16-10 win for INDY. INDY was without RB Jonathan Taylor but still managed to rush for 155yds & 1td on 37carries. INDY QB Anthony Richardson was not sacked by MIA in this game. L17 INDY @HOU, INDY 11-5-1 SU & 11-5-1 ATS. L29 INDY vs HOU, HOME 12-14-3 ATS. L31 INDY vs HOU, FAV 14-13-3 ATS 1PICK’EM. L31 INDY vs HOU, INDY 18-10-3 ATS. L12 INDY vs HOU, INDY 7-4-1 SU & 7-3-2 ATS. INDY 11-11-3 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. INDY 21-30-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 34-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 31-33-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 5-8 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 3>pts w/revenge. INDY 6-9 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG w/revenge. HOU 21-23-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 15-21-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 13-12-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. HOU 13-14 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 9-2 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs opp w/revenge. Even though HOU & INDY met in wk 1 @INDY with HOU getting a tough win at 29-27, HOU is a better team. They are coming off a loss so there is the bounceback. INDY has beaten three bad teams & 1 good team. They beat CHI, PITT, @TENN & vs MIA. INDY has lost to HOU, @GB, @JAGS. INDY’s schedule has been pretty easy but starts to get tough. HOU has beaten BUFF & barely lost @GB. But they were dominated @MINN. HOU hasn’t lost 2in a row under HC Demeco Ryan and I don’t expect them to lose this week. INDY is doing it with grease and bandaids and making the most of opportunities. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor is expected back for this game but the HOU DEF will be ready. HOU has better personnel and has a DEF that at any moment can make a BIG play. HOU #2 TOT DEF w/#9 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. HOU QB CJ Stroud plays like a seasoned veteran and I like that he takes what the DEF gives him. He doesn’t throw many INTs. He threw 5INTS all of last season and has 4INTS this season. I expect HOU to win this game convincingly unless HOU gets turnoveritous.   

THE PICK: HOU-6

Sunday October 27^th, 2024 4:00pm

New Orleans Saints (2-5), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-3), (3-2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-0-1) ATS            NO+7

LW, NO was blown out @HOME by DEN. NO QB Derek Carr was still out and a combo of NO QBs Spencer Rattler & Jake Haener were sacked 6x and couldn’t get the job done. Rattler fumbled 2x which led to 10pts for DEN. But this game got out of hand by the 2^nd qtr and DEN was up 16-3. NO couldn’t do anything and they lost to DEN 33-10. DEN ran all over NO for 225yds & 2tds on 35carries. LW on MNF, LAC couldn’t get out of their own way @ARZ. It was a frustrating evening as LAC could only manage 5fgs in a 17-15 loss to ARZ. LAC had almost 400yds of OFF and scored 0tds. Meanwhile the LAC DEF gave up 181yds rushing and let ARZ drive down the field to kick a winning fg with :00 on the clock. LAC needs to do much better. L5 NO vs LAC, NO 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. NO 9-13 ATS before CAR. NO 13-10-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NO 36-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 33-23 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 29-14 ATS L46 as a ROAD DOG. NO 17-4 ATS AWAY after an SUATS loss. NO 7-6 AST w/rest(Thrs, bye). NO 8-0 ATS L8 off BB SUATS losses vs .600<opp. NO 4-0 ATS L43 after TNF. LAC 36-36 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 33-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 39-43-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 20-9-1 ATS @HOME vs non-div off BB SU losses. LAC 14-4 ATS as a HOME FAV >4pts vs non-div opp off BB Su losses. LAC 13-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. LAC 4-17 ATS vs opp w/rest. LAC 10-1 ATS as a FAV 7>pts off SU FAV loss. LAC has a good team on paper and when you think they should win in a blowout or even just win, they lose. Maybe it’s the chemistry on this team, maybe they are just not that good? LAC RB Gus Edwards is still out which leaves the bulk of the rushing game to JK Dobbins. He’s hot and cold but NO can’t stop the run. NO #30 RUSH DEF. Look for him to have a big game. LAC in general needs to have a big game. NO is coming off that big loss but, right now, they can’t beat anyone. Since their 2-0 start NO has been 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS and has been outscored 141-86, terrible. NO QB Derek Carr is doubtful for this game having not practiced the whole week. The LAC DEF needs a big week too. LAC OLB Joey Bosa is still hurting with his hip and he can surely help even in a limited role. His presence on the field opens things up for other players. With Derek Carr still out and LAC needing a big game, I like LAC here. Neither team is killing it but LAC should win in a blowout to work out some things on OFF.    

THE PICK: LAC-7

Buffalo Bills (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3), (3-3-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                  SEA+3

LW, SEA+3 was @ATL. I liked ATL in this game and it was close for a while but the SEA strip sack and return for a td opened the game up and SEA cruised to a 34-14 win. ATL was down 24-14 and then 31-14 and the game was over. SEA QB Geno Smith had a good game with the help of 69yds rushing from SEA RB Kenneth Walker. Smith spread the ball around to 7different receivers. SEA has good receivers that make a play at any time. The SEA DEF stepped up with 2INTs & the strip sack fumble. LW, BUFF spotted TENN a 10-0 lead and then went to work. BUFF didn’t get much help from the Running game but BUFF QB Josh Allen did enough in the air to keep the TENN DEF guessing. The score was TENN 10-7 at the half but the BUFF DEF shut the door down and BUFF scored 27points on their 5possessions in the 2^nd half to win 34-10. TENN had no answers on DEF and couldn’t get anything going on OFF. L5 BUFF vs SEA, BUFF 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. BUFF 13-7-1 ATS 1NL before MIA. BUFF 30-42-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 33-34-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 8-5 ATS off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 15-20-1 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 8-14-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 3-10-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. BUFF 12-5-1 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. SEA 13-9 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SEA 9-6 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. SEA 24-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 33-36-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 16-5-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 6-9 TS before LAR. SEA is a tough place to play when things get rolling. SEA had a nice win last week @ATL. I definitely didn’t think that SEA would show up, let alone win in a blowout. But here they are battling for the NFC WEST crown. As for BUFF, they acquired WR Armani Cooper to be that #1 receiver sine Diggs is gone. Cooper is still getting acclimated but, he has a bad habit of dropping passes. He caught 4passes for 66yds & 1td. SEA #14 PASS DEF.  SEA may get it done protecting the air but BUFF QB Josh Allen can also beat you with his feet. He has 12tds & 0INTS so he is due for a bad game. BUFF cannot take this game for granted because SEA #8 TOT OFF can beat you two ways. Which Geno Smith will show up? I don’t think that game will be a blowout by ether team as both teams are coming off blowout wins. It will be a tight game with a strong possibility that either team may need a fg at the end to win it. SEA WR DK Metcalf is questionable for this game with the MCL sprain he suffered last week @ATL. SEA needs to be more consistent. However, I like SEA @HOME with the points.

THE PICK: SEA+3

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                       PHILLY+2 ½  

LW, PHILLY @NYG was a blowout. I thought that NYG HC Brian Daboll would devise a game plan to stop the homecoming of PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley having coached Barkley for a number of years. But it was the Saquon Barkley show and he rushed for 176yds &1td on 17 carries. PHILLY overall rushed for 269yds & 3tds on 45carries. PHILLY dominated on both sides of the ball for a 28-3 win. LW, CINNCY-6 was @CLEV. I liked CINNCY because CINNCY needed a game to get going but, the run game for CINNCY is still stagnant. The final score was close, CINNCY 21-14. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was knocked out, then Robinson came in and then Winston. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow only spread the ball around to 5receivers and Higgins & Chase were his main targets. CINNCY was leading 21-6 late in the 4^th qtr when CLEV QB Jameis Winston led a td drive &2pt conversion to make the score 21-14 but CLEV got no further. L5 PHILLY vs CINNCY, PHILLY 0-3-2 SU & 0-5 ATS. PHILLY 10-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 32-33 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 20-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PHILLY 18-9-1 ATS vs .400>non-conf opp. PHILLY 3-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp off SUATS win. PHILLY 5-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. PHILLY 12-5 ATS after NYG. CINNCY 11-8 ATS after CKEV. CINNCY 15-7-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CINNCY 25-36-3 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 27-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 12-8-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 8-9-1 ATS L18 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 9-1-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. Right now, who is stopping Saquon Barkley? He has the O-LINE that he didn’t have with NYG and PHILLY is giving him opportunities that he didn’t have before. PHILLY #2 RUSH OFF. Is PHILLY a great team? No but they can win some games and go to the playoffs. There is talent here and with WR AJ Brown healthy, it gives QB Jalen Hurts a nice target that he can rely on. CINNCY has problems on OFF and can’t get comfortable. No matter what they try they don’t look the same like last season. I like PHILLY here because CINNCY can’t stop the run. CINNCY #21 RUSH DEF. In wk 5 vs BALT, CINNCY gave up 175yds rushing. Granted, most of BALT RB Derrick Henry’s yds were in OT but to that point BALT still had over 100yds rushing. If PHILLY is patient, with a successful run game here, things will open up in the passing lanes. Hurts has been sacked a lot in 6games, 18x but, he knows how to handle that. This game is a battle of two very good young QBS and it should be a good game. CINNCY hasn’t beaten anyone with wins @CAR, @NYG & @CLEV. PHILLY is better than all of those and they will show it on SUN. I like PHILLY here with points to win outright.  

THE PICK: PHILLY+2 ½

Carolina Panthers (1-6) , (1-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                 CAR+9

LW, CAR was blown out @WASH, 40-7. WASH did almost everything right while CAR did everything wrong. CAR QB Andy Dalton threw 2INTs which turned into 7pts. One was a PICK6 and the defender anticipated the route and jumped it. CAR RB Chubba Hubbard was held to 52yds rushing because CAR was already down 10-0 in the 1^st qtr and they were already playing catchup. WASH ran all over CAR for 214yds & 1td on 37carries. LW, on TNF I originally liked DEN-2 @ NO. I changed my pick for some stupid reason as to NO being @HOME and needing a win. Well, go with your 1^st choice and it is probably right. DEN destroyed NO, 33-10 and it was a homecoming for DEN HC Sean Payton. DEN ran over NO for 225yds & 2tds on 35carries. DEN QB Bo Nix wasn’t sacked by NO and DEN was up 16-3 at the half. You could have turned your set off there. The DEF for DEN created two fumbles which turned into 10pts for DEN in the rout. L6 CAR vs DEN, CAR 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS. CAR 12-12 ATS in 2^nd gm off BB RGs. CAR 4-12 ATS before NO. CAR 35-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 41-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 15-20 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 3-11 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 15-5-1 ATS off DD SU conf ROAD loss. CAR 2-9 ATS L11 AWAY off BB SU losses. DEN 38-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 36-41 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 13-3 ATS off SUATS win vs <.500 opp off BB SU losses. DEN 13-5 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off SU loss. DEN 1-6 ATS L7 vs opp off DD SU ROAD loss. QB Bryce Young will be starting for CAR in place of Andy Dalton because Dalton injured his throwing thumb in a car accident this week. Young is worse than Dalton when it comes to everything as a QB and the DEN DEF is very tough and getting better by the week. Young needs to go to an NFL team that will develop him into a better QB. He is not getting that in CAR. As for DEN QB Bo Nix, he started the season sloppy but has gotten better with less turnovers and support from a better run game from the RBs. CAR #30 TOT w/#32 RUSH DEF vs DEN #13 RUSH OFF. DEN has a decent run game while CAR can’t defend against the run at all. The game plan for DEN is that they should do exactly what they did @NO on TNF. They need to run heavy until the CAR DEF falls down and then drop some passes in between because CAR will be out of position. On the other side, the DEN DEF will create some turnovers because CAR QB Bryce Young is rusty and has bad habits that will help create those turnovers. The only bright spot for CAR is RB Chubba Hubbard who can run the ball but DEN has a good run DEF, DEN #10 RUSH DEF and he will be stopped cold in this game. Lay the points here as DEN should roll at HOME. DEN should not give up any dummy td in the 4^th qtr for a back door cover. The DEN DEF should have a field day with this team.  

THE PICK: DEN-9

Kansas City Chiefs (6-0), (4-1-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-0-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS               LV+9 ½  

LW, KC was @SF. If Mahomes can’t beat you with his arm, he’ll beat you with his feet. That’s what he did vs SF. Even though SF has some injuries, they still have a talented team. The KC DEF is ferocious and makes plays that create even more opportunities for QB Pat Mahomes. SF QB Brock Purdy had 3INTs which KC turned into 2tds. SF led 3-0 but never led after that and Mahomes showed everyone why he is the best. Mahomes had a td run where he ran over one of SF’s hardest hitters, S Malik Mustapha and had another run where he used his wits to gain 30yds and set up another KC td. KC won 28-18. Mahomes finds ways to win. LW, LV was @LAR. LV had chances to win but QB Aidan O’Connell hurt his hand and went out early. QB Gardner Minshew came in and turned the ball over 3x which led to all 3tds for LAR and the game was won by LAR 20-15. LV had their chances to take this game but they seemed to be playing catchup the whole game because of Minshew. He was terrible in this game and his accuracy was off. LAR escaped with the win. L17 KC @LV, KC 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS. L14 KC vs LV, KC 11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS. L34 KC vs LV, ROAD 20-14 SU & 21-13 ATS. L34 KC vs LV, DOG 18-14 ATS 2PICK’EMS. KC 28-25-2 ATS L55 as a ROAD FAV. KC 13-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. KC 29-19 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 29-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 32-31-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 3-12-1 ATS after non-conf ROAD gm. LV 40-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 30-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 23-26 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 6-2 ATS as a HOME DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. LV 7-0 ATS L7 vs >.500opp off ATS win. The rich get richer. KC just picked up WR DeAndre Hopkins from TENN. Mahomes may not being having the greatest season throwing wise and TE Travis Kelce has said that he may have lost a step but KC is 6-0. The DEF is top notch and who is going to beat them? Kelce is still money when Mahomes needs a play and with the addition of Hopkins who catches everything, KC will be hard to beat. Just ask SF. LV is a terribly coached team. Like I said LW, only 3guys on DEF show up. The rest run around and look busy. LV could have and probably should have beat LAR last week but Minshew single-handedly lost the game for them with his turnovers. He is a turnover machine and probably will be with another team in 2025. The KC DEF is tough. Even though CB L’Jarius Sneed is with TENN, the KC DEF hasn’t missed a beat. They have kept other teams at bay when pressed and KC DC Steve Spagnuolo just gets better and better with his defensive schemes. KC #10 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF & #20 PASS DEF. As for LV, QB Aidan O’Connell will be out for a few weeks with his thumb injury and Minshew will be in there. LV has not bothered to look for any veteran backup that might be out there. QB Desmond Ridder is the backup behind Minshew and he has played one full season in the NFL and he was yanked out of ATL. Last season KC beat LV in LV 31-17 but was bushwahacked on a MNF contest @HOME by LV 20-14. There may be some revenge on the minds of KC and I think they will look to get the OFF going. Right now, Mahomes has 6tds & 8INTs, no that is not a misprint. He will look to get things going against LV. LV #8 PASS DEF. LV has been good vs the pass because of Crosby & Spillane’s constant pressure and attraction to the football. They are always around. But in this game, KC will get their run game going and should win by 2tds. Sorry can’t go against KC here and Mahomes.         

THE PICK: KC-9 ½

Sunday October 27^th, 2024 8:20pm

Dallas Cowboys (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                       DAL+4 ½

LW, I liked KC+1 ½ @SF. You can’t bet against Mahomes and he single handily beat SF. He may not have thrown a td but his running caught SF by surprise. Plus, the DEF for KC stepped up and created 3INTS that KC turned into 14pts. In the game, SF lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to torn ACL and he is gone for the season. Mahomes ran for a td right over SF S Malik Mustapha. KC won 28-18. KC did run the ball effectively for 184yds &4tds on 39carries. SF played catchup in this game to no avail. DAL is coming off a bye and before that they were crushed 47-9 @HOME by DET. DET pulled out all the stops for a little revnge that happened last season and didn’t let up. DAL managed 3fgs while throwing 3INTs and committing 2fumbles. DAL QB Dak Prescott did nit have a good day throwing 2INTS and being sacked 4x. The running game for DAL was dismal with 53yds rushing. DAL was down 27-6 at the half and DET just poured it on. The DEF for DAL was dismal too as they made no stops when they needed them. L8 DAL vs SF, DAL 6-2 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. DAL 15-12 ATS on SNF vs opp off an SU loss. DAL 19-17-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 17-21 ATS AWAY on SNF. DAL 17-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DAL 12-5 ATS since 2007 off their bye. DAL 21-23-1 ATS as a aDOG in OCT. DAL 31-33-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 9-1 ATS w/rest & revenge. DAL 11-5 ATS as a DOG vs NFC WEST. SF 10-13 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 9-12 ATS @HOME on SNF. SF 8-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. SF 48-37-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 33-40-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 8-9 ATS since 2007 before their bye. SF 17-22-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB non-div gms. SF 13-15-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 3-11 ATS as a FAV off DD Su loss. SF 5-16 ATS vs non-div conf opp w/revenge. SF 5-11 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp w/revenge. SF 14-23 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF 7-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. SF is coming off a loss and is in danger of getting lost in any kind of playoff race. DAL is also coming off a loss but their OFF can’t seem to find the same page. Since DAL QB Dak Prescott & WR Ceedee Lamb got their extensions, they have not been playing in a cohesive manner. The DEF for DAL has been a complete letdown as well. DAL #24 TOT DEF. We can stop the comparisons of DAL LB Micah Parsons with LB Lawrence Taylor. He is questionable for this game since being out vs NYG. But DAL has shown that they can’t stop anyone. Their only impressive win so far is @PITT where they really put it together on the last 2drives to win the game with :20 left. Other than that, DAL hasn’t shown up. SF has had a SuperBowl hangover. They have had injuries everywhere and SF QB Brock Purdy has thrown 7INTS vs 9TDs. He has made some bad decisions in some games and didn’t look good vs KC. With all the injuries SF still has a potent DEF. SF #14 TOT DEF. A good team knows who to neutralize. The SF DEF has 8INTS so they get after the ball. I see them getting a couple of INTS vs Prescott in this game. Both teams are on a bounceback but SF is just a better team. Lay the points here as SF rebounds.    

THE PICK: SF-4 ½

Monday October 28^th, 2024 8:15pm

New York Giants (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                        NYG+4 ½  

On SNF, PITT @HOME +2 spotted NYJ a 15-6 lead then they capitalized on an errant throw by NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers and the momentum and the game swung back to PITT. Had this been the Rodgers of old, NYJ would have been up 22-6 and PITT would probably have been done. But because of the gift that keeps on giving, PITT with new starter QB Russell Wilson, took the ball and later scored a td. The PITT DEF clamped up and PITT scored 31 straight points to win 37-15. NYJ had no answers and QB Russell Wilson looked good in his first game of the 2024 season. The PITT DEF held NYJ to 54yds rushing and NYJ did not score a single point in the 2^nd half. PITT RB Najee Harris also looked good with 102yds rushing & 1td on 21carries. LW, I figured that NYG HC Brian Daboll and the rest of the NYG knew RB Saquon Barkley and that they would contain him and keep the game close @HOME vs PHILLY. Well, guess what? Same ole NYG and they were routed 28-3. Barkley had a field day rushing for 176yds & 1td on 17carries. PHILLY as a whole rushed for 269yds & 3tds on 45carries. The only thing NYG DEF did was sacked PHILLY QBs 5x. Other than that, they couldn’t stop PHILLY. NYG QB Daniel Jones was replaced by Drew Lock but it didn’t matter. Jones was sacked 7x & Lock 1x. The O-LINE continues to be a problem for NYG while the NYG DEF didn’t show up either. L5 NYG vs PITT, NYG 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. NYG 13-17 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. NYG 5-11 ATS as a non-div DOG on MNF. NYG 10-3 ATS after PHILLY. NYG 9-7 ATS before WASH. NYG 43-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 38-25-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 6-9-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG 6<pts. NYG 16-12 ATS before div HOME gm. NYG 5-14 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 12-8-1 ATS vs .333> non-conf opp. NYG 4-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. NYG 8-20 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 3-9 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. PITT 10-10 ATS L20 on MNF. PITT 14-9 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. PITT 10-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. PITT 13-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PITT 43-23-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 51-34 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 11-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts PITT 12-22 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. If Russell Wilson plays like he did vs NYJ in every game moving forward, PITT will be hard to beat of course until they play KC in wk 17. But PITT looked solid all around & the DEF was solid too. NYG #25 RUSH DEF. PITT should run the ball until the NYG DEF falls down. This may be NYG HC Brian Daboll’s last season as HC and QB Jones’s too. The O-LINE for NYG has never been addressed and it continues to be inconsistent at best. NYG QBs have been sacked 22x so far this season and that is pretty bad. NYG #25 RUSH OFF vs PITT #3 RUSH DEF. This means that it will be all on whoever is the NYG QB because NYG will not get too many yds on the ground. This has the makings of another blowout and PITT is certainly found some bigtime confidence with the play of Wilson. Lay the points here as PITT should roll right over NYG.

THE PICK: PITT-4 ½