2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday December 19^th, 2024 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (9-5), (10-4) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-6), (9-4-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS                   DEN+3

LW, I liked DEN -4 ½ @HOME vs INDY. But, DEN got off to a rocky start @HOME vs INDY. In this game, DEN QB Bo Nix had 3INTs and INDY was leading 13-7 at the half. But INDY is a bad team and they tend to beat themselves as well. First off INDY RB Jonathan Taylor discarded the ball before he crossed the goal line. It ended up being a touchback instead of 7pts. Then on a trick play by INDY, the ball was intercepted and returned for a td by DEN. Big swings here and momentum going in DEN’s favor. Even so, the usually tight RUSH DEF of DEN gave up 107yds rushing on 22 carries to Taylor and 149yds total & 1td on 32carries to INDY. Luckily, INDY QB Anthony Richardson is not a skilled passer and threw 2INTS which DEN converted into 7pts as well as the 3fumbles which were converted into another 10pts by DEN. The final score was DEN 31-13. But DEN needs to shore up their DEF. LW, I liked TB+3 @LAC. LAC was looking good with a 17-13 halftime lead but could not score at all in the 2^nd half as TB scored 27points on 3tds & 2fgs to win 40-17. On the other side of the ball, the TB closed the door on the LAC OFF and didn’t allow a single point. LAC RB Gus Edwards rushed for a paltry 23yds on 8carries. But without RB JK Dobbins, Edwards gets no rest and has to do it alone. TB QB Baker Mayfield lit up the LAC secondary and he was only sacked 1x. The LAC secondary also had no answer for TB WR Mike Evans who caught almost everything that was thrown to him. Maybe this is a wake-up call for LAC. L17 DEN @LAC, DEN 9-8 SU & 10-6-1 ATS. L35 DEN vs LAC, DEN 17-16-2 ATS. L35 DEN vs LAC, ROAD 20-13-2 ATS. L19 DEN vs LAC, DEN 11-7-1 ATS. L35 DEN vs LAC, DOG 17-16-2 ATS. DEN 12-6 ATS on TNF. DEN 5-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. DEN 16-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DEN 29-36-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 25-31-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 34-43-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 20-17-1 ATS L38 div ROAD gms. DEN 6-9 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs conf opp. DEN 12-5 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses. LAC 10-6 ATS on TNF. LAC 8-6 ATS vs AFC WEST on TNF. LAC 4-1 ATS @HOME on TNF. LAC 8-14-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LAC 30-39-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 37-34-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 33-42-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 1-10 ATS as a FAV off DD SU loss vs >.500opp. LAC 1-8 ATS as a HOME FAV >1pt after allowing 35>pts. LAC 6-13 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 3-9 ATS ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 2-15-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge. LAC 16-2 ATS off DD SU FAV loss. These two teams met @DEN in wk 6 with LAC winning 23-16. In that game, LAC stormed out to 20-0 halftime lead with the help of an INT & fumble that resulted in 10pts for LAC. DEN tried playing catchup but to no avail as LAC held on for the 23-16 win. DEN’s RUSH DEF has slipped in the past weeks and they need to shore it up vs LAC who will need to get it going to take some pressure off of QB Justin Herbert. In the game in wk 6, RB JK Dobbins rushed for 96yds & 1td on 25carries. He will not be available for this game and Edwards is not the same kind of rusher. Den has been a nice surprise with QB Bo Nix. However, the last 2games he has 5INTs. I don’t think DEN HC Sean Payton wants to see this as a trend. Look for Nix to correct some things and have almost a perfect game vs LAC. DEN RB Javonte Williams needs to get it going vs LAC so that Nix doesn’t feel like he has to win this game by himself. These two teams are battling for playoffs and positioning behind KC. DEN has it rough playing @CINNCY & then vs KC. If KC has locked up the #1 seed, look for QB Carson Wentz to start with backups. But don’t underestimate Wentz, he plays to win. CINNCY is no slouch either with QB Joe Burrow. LAC has it easy @NE & @LV. But, LAC is another one of those teams who hasn’t beaten anyone good. Even if they make the playoffs, they will probably do a 1^st round exit. LAC has beaten LV, CAR, NO, CLEV, TENN, CINNCY, ATL & DEN. LAC has lost to PITT, KC(2x), ARZ, BALT & TB. See a trend here? I may have mentioned all this last week but it is worth mentioning again. DEN#8 TOT DEF w/#5 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. DEN has a little bit of revenge in mind even though LAC is coming off 2straight losses and is desperate for a win. DEN needs to step it up on DEF and put it all on Herbert’s shoulders. DEN needs to stop the LAC run cold. I like DSEN getting points here and I feel strongly, barring turnovers, that they will win outright.   

THE PICK: DEN+3

Saturday December 21^st, 2024 1:00pm

Houston Texans (9-5), (5-7-2) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1), (5-8-1) ATS, (7-0) HOME, (2-5) ATS                    HOU+3

LW, HOU @HOME beat a crappy faker MIA team. MIA beat themselves with 4turnovers by MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa. Even so, HOU only managed 77yds rushing and 131yds passing. HOU was given so many gifts by only managed to turn them into 10pts. That means that they could only score 12pts by themselves. I liked MIA +3 in this game because MIA needed the win to stay relevant for the playoff hunt. They are out and HOU has the AFC SOUTH crown. By the way, HOU won 20-12. LW, I liked KC-4 @CLEV. CLEV is going nowhere and KC needed a breather of a game. KC was up 21-0 in the 3^rd qtr and it was looking good. But, KC QB Pat Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain and has been treating it since. Carson Wentz went in as QB and held the fort for the rest of the game. KC went on to win 21-7 as CLEV had 6turnovers which basically shot themselves in the foot about any catchup win in this game. L11 HOU vs KC, HOU 5-6 SU but 6-4-1 ATS. HOU 21-30-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 31-31-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 13-4 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 6-12 ATS vs .750>opp. KC 41-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 47-41-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 11-5 ATS off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. KC 8-0 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off DD ATS win. Right now, KC has the #1 seed in the AFC and is looking to hold on to it. The schedule for KC is never easy as everyone wants to knock off KC. But KC keeps winning. After HOU, KC plays on WED @PITT which is no easy task. It is a short week and PITT is still battling for the AFC NORTH crown and position in the AFC playoffs. It will be a tough game. Then KC goes to DEN where DEN is also fighting for a playoff spot. DEN has been a nice surprise and almost beat KC @KC in wk 10. DEN had a last second fg attempt blocked which would have won the game for DEN. As for HOU, there has definitely been a regression by HOU QB CJ Stroud. One factor could be the tougher competition HOU has faced after a relatively easy schedule in 2023. Better opponents mean more pressure and less open receivers for HOU. Plus, more attempts to get to the QB as Stroud has been sacked more times (45) so far than all (38) of 2023. Welcome to the NFL, Stroud. After this game, HOU plays BALT which is also looking to supplant their playoff position and may be coming out very strong against a HOU team that may have already sown up their payoff position. After BALT, HOU play @TENN which will probably be filled with backups unless HOU needs a win to move up in position. If their position is locked in, look for backups for HOU and an easy TENN win. If not HOU will have to go full force and see what happens. Right now, KC QB Pat Mahomes is resting because of his high ankle sprain vs CLEV. We all know he wants to play but if he can’t, Carson Wentz is very capable of leading the team and showing the rest of the NFL that he still has what it takes to lead a team. Whether Mahomes plays, is up to him but I don’t see HOU giving KC much of a challenge in a game that KC wants to win to keep the #1 seed. HOU barely beat MIA and KC is so more talented than MIA. KC WR Marquise (Hollywood) Brown has returned to the lineup and is another OFF weapon that will be utilized going forward. Even is he is not 100%, opposing secondaries need to keep a DB on him because of his ability to get behind the DEF. Also, look for KC RBs Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco to get more touches so that whoever plays QB for KC on SAT doesn’t feel the need to win it all by themselves. I like KC laying the fg as they should win by 7pts in KC fashion.  

THE PICK: KC-3

Saturday December 21^st, 2024 4:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4), (10-4) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5), (8-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS                          PITT+6

LW, BALT was a ROAD FAV-16 ½ @NYG. I liked NYG just to keep it close. NYG had a chance at the end but a bad team finds ways to lose even worse. BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw for 5tds and toyed with NYG. BALT RB Derrick Henry got a light load rushing 14x for 67yds. NYG had a chance to get a back door cover but NYG QB Tim Boyle threw a pass that had no chance of hitting a NYG receiver and was intercepted to end the game at BALT 35-14. LW, I like PITT+5 ½ just to keep it close @PHILLY. The turning point of the game was with PHILLY up 20-13, PITT RB Najee Harris fumbled a perfect toss near the redzone that PHILLY recovered. It looked like PITT was poised to score but PHILLY took the recovery and marched down the field for a 27-13 lead and the game. That was the turning point. PHILLY played ball control in the 2^nd half and held the ball for the last 10:29 of the game and PITT never saw the ball. L17 PITT @BALT, PITT 9-8 SU & 10-6 ATS 1NL. L35 PITT vs BALT, PITT 18-14-2 ATS 1NL. L35 PITT vs BALT, DOG 22-9-2 ATS 1PICK’EM, 1NL. L33 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 20-11-2 ATS. PITT 14-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PITT 32-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 32-27-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 27-17 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 11-2-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp w/revenge. BALT 29-27-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. BALT 44-34 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 44-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 7-6 ATS L13 as a div FAV 6<pts. BALT 5-20 ATS as a div HOME FAV 4>pts. BALT 16-34-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 12-2 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 2-11 ATS as a FAV >4pts off DD ATS win. PITT LB TJ Watt hurt his ankle and left the game @PHILLY, not to return. He is questionable for this game vs BALT and I don’t like his chances to play on a short week, no matter what HC Mike Tomlin says. Without Watt, PITT is down a man and he is the X factor on this team. But even with him for most of the game vs PHILLY, PITT couldn’t stop PHILLY. BALT has revenge on their minds because they lost @PITT in wk 11, 18-16. PITT is in a bounceback mode and needs this game to stay ahead of BALT. Going forward, PITT has a very tough schedule the rest of the season. PITT plays KC on WED which is a short week. Then they play CINNCY the last SUN of the season. CINNCY may still be playing for a playoff spot and giving it their all. For BALT, they play @HOU on WED which is not an easy foe depending on which HOU team shows up and how they play this SUN. Then BALT plays @HOME vs CLEV which by that time, BALT will know what playoff position they will be in. CLEV is done and SHOULD be easy pickings but you never know. BALT vs PITT is always a battle and it is usually a low scoring game and almost never a blowout. We all know what BALT QB Lamar Jackson & RB Derrick Henry can do on the ground but after PITT gave up 131yds rushing to PHILLY, they may do some tweaking. In the week 11 meeting, PITT held the Jackson-Henry duo to 111yds rushing & 1td on 17carries. Believe it or not, that is containment. I like BALT to win but PITT to keep it close. I think this is a 3pt game at best and you may see TJ Watt out there as a decoy. He always attracts double coverage which should open up a lane for someone else. This will be a good game but I think it will be very close. PITT RB Najee Harris will also look to bounce back after his BIG fumble. BALT wins but, take the points.   

THE PICK: PITT+6  

Sunday December 22^nd, 2024 1:00pm

New York Giants (2-12), (3-11) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (7-7), (6-8) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (2-5) ATS                         NYG+8 ½

LW, NYG were HOME DOG +16 ½ vs BALT. I never thought that NYG would win just keep the score in the cover zone. Well, with NYG QB QB Tommie DeVito knocked out with a concussion and the secondary decimated by injuries it was child’s play for BALT. Tim Boyle came in for DeVito and he was so-so. BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw 5tds while BALT RB Derrick Henry rushed for 67yds on only 14 carries. The game was never in doubt for BALT & they won the game, 35-14. On MNF, ATL barely beat an LV team that was 2-11. ATL QB Kirk Cousins looked shell shocked and threw nothing but safe short passes all night. The ATL OFF looked like they played not to lose. The DEF played well given the circumstances that they were playing only with a one score lead most of the night because the QB for ATL was in another world. ATL RB Bijan Robinson was a steady contributor with 125yds rushing on 22carries. But ATL barely won and it came down to the wire for ATL in a 15-9 win. L9 NYG vs ATL, NYG 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS. NYG 51-38 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 40-35 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 7-18 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYG 3-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. NYG 16-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs .600<opp. NYG 1-11 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. ATL 32-34-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 37-34-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 4-14 ATS as a FAV 8>pts off SUATS win. ATL 2-10 ATS as a conf FAV 8>pts off SUATS win. ATL 2-14 ATS @HOME off SUATS FAV win. ATL 4-15-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 5-17-1 ATS vs .333<opp. This is what you get for $100 Million dollars guaranteed. A QB that has confidence problems and barely beats a 2-11 LV Raiders team. ATL QB Kirk Cousins stats are pathetic for MNF vs LV. I say this because LV is terrible and ATL is stacked on OFF and should have beat LV 44-10. I have said it before and I’ll say it again, Kirk Cousins is just an average QB with a huge contract. He’s always been average and that’s all he’ll ever be. That all said, NYG DEF is decimated and their secondary is mostly backups with no NFL experience. If Cousins has a game to get his confidence back this should be it vs another 2-12 team. Drew Lock is slated to start after Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion in the last game. Tim Boyle finished the game for DeVito but he was ineffective. NYG would gladly lose and that way they could be in good position for the #1seed. ATL is fighting for a playoff spot even though they will be one and done. ATL #9 TOT OFF w/#6 PASS OFF & #12 RUSH OFF vs NYG ##21 TOT DEF w/#31 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. ATL needs to show everyone that things are back and Cousins is ok. NYG need to look at a lot of positions in the off-season, not just QB. Again, the O-LINE needs a lot of help. For this game, ATL SHOULD put on an OFF show that highlights all the great tools they have on OFF. As of this writing Cousins has been replaced @ QB by Michael Penix, the rookie QB who was drafted #8 overall in 2024 out of Washington. As a result, the LINE went from ATL-10 to ATL -8 ½ . Cousins may have played his last game with ATL. Does a QB of Cousins stature need counseling? He shouldn’t, especially with that BIG contract. This team can still make the playoffs. Penix will get all the support he needs. Penix should take what the DEF gives him. He shouldn’t try to do too much. HOME COOKING is what this team needs, easy game plan. That all said, ATL should win this game BIG. Lay the points here as NYG loses another game say, 24-10.     

THE PICK: ATL-8 ½

New England Patriots (3-11), (5-8-1) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @Buffalo Bills (11-3), (10-4) ATS, (6-0) HOME, (5-1) ATS                         NE+12 ½  

LW, BUFF took it to DET in DET. They were shell shocked after their loss @LAR and could not afford to lose another game. I thought that DET would up their game vs BUFF but it was BUFF who came storming out of the gate and there was no doubt who was winning this game. BUFF QB Josh Allen was again on fire and got some nice help from the run game that contributed 197yd rushing & 4tds on 34carries. Allen rushed for 2 of those tds and also threw for 2tds. BUFF had 0turnovers and was leading 21-14 at the half en route to a 48-42 win. It was BUFF 48-35 when DET scored a dummy td to make the final score closer. NE dug themselves a hole @ARZ that they couldn’t climb out of. Early mistakes and bad plays led to an ARZ 13-3 halftime lead. In the 2^nd half ARZ didn’t let up & built a 23-3 lead. NE & ARZ traded tds in the 4^th qtr to end the game with ARZ winning 30-17. It was too little too late as the NE DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it most. NE gave up 163yds rushing & 2tds on 32carries. Most of the damage was down by ARZ RB James Conner who rushed for 110yds & 2tds on 16carries. L17 NE @BUFF, NE 133-4 SU & 12-4-1 ATS. L26 NE vs BUFF, NE 21-5 ATS. NE 12-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NE 39-27-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 28-19-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 39-36-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 16-3 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 18-17-2 after allowing 28>pts. BUFF 8-13-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. BUFF 28-40 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 42-38 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-32 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 22-18 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 11-7 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 5-6 ATS as a FAV >3pts after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 2-8 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 6-14 ATS before NYJ. BUFF 6-0 ATS L6 after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 7-2 ATS L9 as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. This is the time of year when really good teams are heavy FAVS vs really bad teams. NE is a very bad team. They need an assortment of players on OFF & DEF to make this team competitive. But QB Drake Maye looks like he has some talent that could take NE back to its winning ways. It all depends on what they do in the off-season. BUFF looks to be gaining steam at just the right moment. Maybe losing @LAR was a good thing as a wakeup call. But the DEF for BUFF has given up a lot of yardage and a lot of points the last two games. BUFF #8 TOT OFF w/#9 RUSH OFF & #7 PASS OFF vs NE #20 TOT DEF w/#21 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. This has the makings of a blowout. The last two games were tighter and vs better teams. NE is not even close yet and BUFF has the luxury of playing them 2x in the last 3games. QB Josh Allen is favored to win the NFL MVP but honestly who cares? If you don’t win the SuperBowl, it’s just another piece of furniture that you need to pack when you move. The OFF for BUFF seems to be clicking and RB James Cook has helped tremendously. In the last two seasons he has rushed successfully so that Allen doesn’t feel the need to win the game all by himself. The DEF has to play Cook because he is capable of catching passes and running for long gains & tds. BUFF may even put up 50points in this game. Look what they did @HOME in the snow vs SF. Lay the points here.     

THE PICK: BUFF-12 ½

Detroit Lions (12-2), (9-4-1) ATS, (6-0) AWAY, (5-0-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-10), (7-6-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (5-1-1) ATS                         CHI+6 ½

LW, DET was hosting BUFF. But BUFF came out storming and before you knew it BUFF was up 21-7 in the 2^nd qtr and DET was playing catchup. BUFF would never relinquish the lead and win 48-42. The DEF for DET had no answers for BUFF & QB Josh Allen who seemed to carve up the DET DEF on every possession. The DET DEF sacked Allen 0x. But it was more than just a loss for DET in the win-loss column. DET suffered some major injuries and guys are out for the rest of the season. DET had injuries to RB David Montgomery, torn MCL, DL Alim McNeil torn ACL & CB Carlton Davis suffered a fractured jaw. Also, CB Khalil Dorsey, suffered a broken leg. All will be out the remainder of the season. They are especially hard injuries as DET looks to make a run to the SuperBowl. On MNF CHI was @MINN. I liked MINN-7 because CHI has absolutely no O-LINE to speak of. It showed as CHI QB Caleb Williams seemed to be under pressure on every play. Early in the game, he was sacked and stripped of the ball where MINN recovered and eventually turned it into a td. But this game was a mismatch as MINN opened up a 20-3 lead in the 3^rd qtr and CHI never could catchup, losing 30-12. It was MINN 27-6 before CHI scored a dummy td with 5:19 left and the score ended with MINN winning 30-12. L17 DET @CHI, DET 7-10 SU & 7-9-1 ATS. L29 DET vs CHI, DET 13-14-2 ATS. L31 DET vs CHI, HOME 17-12-2 ATS. L25 DET vs CHI, FAV 10-13-2 ATS. DET 15-6-1 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. DET 14-15-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DET 24-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 36-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 33-28-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 16-10 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 6-3 ATS AWAY after allowing 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. DET 12-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 7-6 ATS after scoring 40>pts. DET 10-2 ATS off non-conf gm vs opp w/revenge. DET 17-11 ATS vs .333<opp. DET 10-7 ATS AWAY vs .333<opp. DET 4-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. CHI 19-19-1 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. CHI 9-12-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CHI 33-53-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 31-37 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 41-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 11-4 ATS after MINN. CHI 16-0-1 ATS as a HOME DOG >4pts off BB SU losses. CHI 11-4 ATS @HOME w/revenge off DD ATS loss. DET suffered some bad injuries in the game vs BUFF. The 1-2 RB punch that was so effective for DET is now all on RB Jahmyr Gibbs. DET CB Carlton Davis who was a leader in the already depleted secondary for DET is gone for the season as well. DET is still the #1seed over PHILLY & MINN but only by tiebreakers & head to head at this point. DET’s schedule is not that easy going forward. After CHI, DET plays @SF which is no easy task as SF still may be in the playoff hunt. Even if SF is not in the playoff hunt, it will still be a tough game as SF can play spoiler. Then DET plays @HOME vs MINN who is also has a chance at the #1 seed. That game may be for who gets the #1 seed in the NFC and the loser will probably drop to at least #3. For CHI, the best they can do is play spoiler. After CHI plays DET, they play SEA & @GB. CHI could conceivably beat SEA and take them out of the playoff picture if they are still in the running when they play CHI. Then @GB, CHI could knock GB from any playoff position they may have thought they were supplanted at. But, the CHI schedule is tough for a 4-10 team and QB Caleb Williams has been sacked a league leading 58x. He also has fumbled the ball 6x which is the cause and affect of him getting sacked so much. These two teams met on Thanksgiving with DET leading 23-7 and CHI made a nice comeback only to lose 23-20. CHI had a chance to win the game but CHI HC Matt Eberflus made some questionable calls and let the clock slip by. The loss by CHI cost him his job. Since then CHI hasn’t looked good period. They have had flashes but have been blowout in both games. Both of these teams are on a bounceback but DET has more to play for then CHI. Under DET HC Dan Campbell, DET hasn’t lost back-to-back games since mid 2022 when DET was finding its way. I don’t see that happening here. DET #2 TOT OFF vs CHI #24 TOT DEF. DET needs a BIG bounceback game in the worst way and needs to find ways to adjust and still win convincingly without all those injured players. CHI needs to start evaluating players for 2025. I see DET winning this game by 7-10 pts which is slightly higher than the spread. If DET had beaten BUFF, they may have taken CHI for granted but, in a bounceback situation and so much riding on it, DET will find a way to win and win by the margin I mentioned. Of course, turnovers would be BIG factor in the game being closer but, I like DET laying the points.    

THE PICK: DET-6 ½  

Cleveland Browns (3-11), (4-10) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-8), (8-6) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS                             CLEV+6

LW, I knew CLEV wouldn’t do anything @HOME vs KC. KC needed a game that they could win convincingly and they did. CLEV QB Jameis Winston threw 3INTS and was eventually benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson who also threw an INT. In all CLEV had 6turnovers. It’s a wonder that KC didn’t score 40points in this game. On top of it, CLEV RB Nick Chubb broke his foot in this game after coming back from multiple knee surgeries. His season is done and he may be playing for another team in 2025. CLEV lost this game, 21-7. LW, I thought TENN+5 ½ would just keep things close @HOME with CINNCY. TENN didn’t but CINNCY stormed out to a 31-14 lead in the 4^th qtr after TENN had a 14-7 lead in the 1^st qtr. TENN couldn’t hold onto the ball whether in the air of on the ground & CINNCY turned TENN’s 6turnovers into 17pts. TENN played catchup the whole way to no avail. The final score, CINNCY 37-27, looked close but it didn’t tell the whole story. There were 10turnovers in this game but CINNCY was able to rush for 101yds while QB Joe Burrow passed for 26/37 for 271yds, 3tds & 2INTS. CINNCY also had 2lost fumbles. L17 CLEV @CINNCY, CLEV 5-12 SU & 6-9-2 ATS. L26 CLEV vs CINNCY 8-14-4 ATS. L35 CLEV vs CINNCY, DOG 19-12-4 ATS. L22 CLEV vs CINNCY, CLEV 5-14-3 ATS. CLEV 13-27-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEV 28-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 11-10-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. CLEV 5-14-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 0-9 ATS L9 as a DOG >5pts after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 4-16 ATS w/div revenge off SU loss. CINNCY 15-8-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CINNCY 9-1 ATS as a FAV 4>pts in 1^st of BB HGs. CINNCY 50-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 27-26 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 30-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 8-10-1 ATS off BB Su wins. CINNCY 8-4 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV is a team with major gaps on OFF & DEF. QB is a BIG question mark for CLEV. For CINNCY, it’s all about starting strong and finishing strong. Starting the season 1-4 put CINNCY in a BIG hole that they couldn’t get out of. Also with 2losses to BALT & already one with PITT, CINNCY is at a disadvantage even if they won all their other games. CINNCY needs to play better as a whole. There is no question that the OFF is great with Burrow but, the DEF needs help. CINNCY #29 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #27 PASS DEF can’t disappear in games that matter most. The CINNCY DEF has 12INTs so they do make plays. There needs to be more improvement on the DEF for CINNCY if they have a shot at returning to the SuperBowl. Going forward, CINNCY has a tough last two games of the season. After CLEV, CINNCY plays vs DEN & then @PITT. DEN is fighting for a playoff spot and PITT may need the win to secure their position. The CINNCY DEF has to do something. Right now CINNCY is on the outside looking in and still has an outside chance at the playoffs but, they have to keep winning, period. It looks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for CLEV this week @QB but, the CINNCY DEF still needs to play well. They cannot take anything for granted because they know that they need to keep winning to even be considered for the playoffs. These two teams played each other in wk 7 @CLEV with CINNCY winning 21-14. If there is revenge on the minds of CLEV, I don’t see it because the team just doesn’t get it done. Look for CINNCY to win BIG in this game and get a sweep of the season series. I don’t see Burrow having any turnovers in this game.    

THE PICK: CINNCY-6

Tennessee Titans (3-11), (2-12) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (6-8), (6-7-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3-1) ATS                       TENN+4 ½

LW, I didn’t think INDY had a real shot @beating DEN in DEN. However, INDY found themselves with a 13-7 halftime lead. But, that would surely change. INDY actually beat themselves @DEN. First, INDY RB Jonathan Taylor let go of the ball before he passed the goal line, a td turned into a touchback. Second, a trick play that was intercepted for a DEN td. Third, Anthony Richardson as the INDY QB. Richardson’s line looked like this 17/38, 172 yds 0tds & 2INTs. DEN turned things around in the 2^nd half and shutout INDY while scoring 24 unanswered points for a DEN 31-13 win. It was a calamity of errors that INDY would like to soon forget. LW, I didn’t think that TENN would win but just keep it close. Who knew that TENN would commit 6turnovers? After TENN opened up a 14-7 lead, the roof caved in for TENN and CINNCY scored 24 straight points before TENN would score again. By that time the score was CINNCY 31-14 and eventually would end at CINNCY 37-27. In the first half CINNCY turned 3TENN turnovers into 17pts. Then, in the 2^nd half, TENN turned the ball over on 3straight possessions resulting in another 7pts for CINNCY. It could have been worse and TENN would have had no hope. L17 TENN @INDY, TENN 6-11 SU & 8-8-1 ATS. L21 TENN Vs INDY, ROAD 12-7-1 ATS 1NL. L13 INDY vs TENN, FAV 7-6 ATS. TENN 10-16 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TENN 31-37-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 28-36-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 5-17 ATS before JAGS. TENN 1-7 ATS as a conf DOG >3pts vs <.500opp. INDY 38-36-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 36-29-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. INDY 33-28-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 8-2-1 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 22-8-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. In the off-season, TENN needs to do a complete evaluation of the team and its players. They may need to find a QB if Will Levis is not progressing. The O-LINE needs better bodies because Levis has been sacked 40x in 10games. TENN needs to start there and work around. INDY is stuck with QB Anthony Richardson who is passing at a 47% comp rate. That is horrible for the NFL. He is a runner first and a passer second. Believe it or not INDY still has an outside shot at making the playoffs. But, they have to keep winning. INDY’s schedule after TENN is @NYG & then vs JAGS. They are all winnable and INDY should end up 9-8 even though they have no shot at beating anyone in the playoffs. There are bright spots on INDY and RB Jonathan Taylor should know better about dropping footballs before crossing the goal line. He is a big help on OFF by taking pressure off of Richardson. And yet Richardson is still terrible. Imagine if he had no RB behind him? The trio of receivers, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs & Michael Pittman are all hard to cover and if Richardson was better INDY would be dangerous. If the team is to get better, Richardson MUST get better. As for TENN, INDY is coming off a loss and needs to get back to winning. I don’t see TENN being competitive in this game, knowing that INDY needs it. But INDY must stay focused and not let TENN RB Tony Pollard get started. Otherwise, INDY could easily lose this game. Pollard has 982yds rushing on the season and should end up with over 1,100 yds for the season. Not bad for a lousy team. These two teams met in wk 6 @TENN with INDY winning 20-17. TENN was the FAV in that game but I knew better. I don’t see any revenge on the part of TENN because INDY is coming off a bounceback and will at least try, to correct all those mistakes they made @DEN. INDY should win by at least a td.    

THE PICK: INDY-4 ½   

Los Angeles Rams (8-6), (8-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ New York Jets (4-10), (4-9-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS                             NYJ+3

LW on TNF, LAR were in a defensive struggle with SF, @SF. This game went back and forth and each team could not get into the endzone and had to settle for fgs. LAR did not turn the ball over and LAR used their running game to their advantage. LAR RB Kyren Williams rushed for 108yds on 29carries which took pressure off of QB Matthew Stafford who had an average game. SF did not sack Stafford which is a good game for the LAR O-LINE. They opened up rushing lanes while protecting their QB. This game was 3-3 in the half but LAR managed 3fgs in the 4^th qtr to win 12-6. LW, you would have thought that the NYJ just won the SuperBowl. They needed to play catchup after trailing at halftime to the lowly JAGS, 13-7. At that point NYJ WR Davante Adams had 0receptions. Well, someone must have knocked on NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers head because he found Adams in the 2^nd half for 9recptions for 198yds & 2tds. NYJ still had to come back but won, 32-25 against the worst DEF in the NFL. JAGS have nothing to play for except a high draft choice and the NYJ DEF is not very good. In this game, Rodgers didn’t turn the ball over and was only sacked 1x. It was a win but it should not be exaggerated for what it was, a comeback win vs JAGS. L5 LAR vs NYJ, LAR 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. LAR 21-16-1 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 9-16-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAR 33-46 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 41-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 9-9-1 ATS asfter SF. LAR 11-12-1 ATS before ARZ. LAR 8-6 ATS w/rest off SU win. LAR 6-6 ATS w/rest off ATS win. LAR 12-7 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. LAR 3-9 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SUATS win. LAR 3-7 ATS L10 vs AFC EAST. LAR 2-5 ATS L7 after TNF. LAR 1-5 ATS L6 as a non-conf ROAD FAV 2>pts. NYJ 26-31-1 ATS L58 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 9-10 ATS before BUFF. NYJ 48-44-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 28-43-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 2-6 ATS as a HOME DOG after scoring 28>pts. NYJ 12-21 ATS after scoring 25>pts. NYJ 12-1 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. NYJ 7-15-2 ATS vs opp wrest. NYJ 1-6 ATS off SU win vs opp off SUATS win. NYJ 2-9 ATS as a DOG L11 after scoring 28>pts. NYJ 0-7 ATS L7 @HOME vs NFC WEST. LAR has something to play for. LAR could win the NFC WEST & get a HOME game to start the playoffs. After NYJ, LAR plays @HOME vs ARZ who LAR lost to @ARZ in wk 2, 41-10. There will be a BIG revenge factor in that game vs ARZ. Then LAR plays @HOME vs SEA who they beat in wk 9 @SEA in OT, 26-20. LAR RB Kyren Williams is having a quiet solid season with 1,121 yds rushing so far. He doesn’t get attention in the NFC because PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley is mentioned so much. But by William’s consistent play, it takes so much pressure off of Stafford that he can pick and choose who to throw the ball to. Stafford has the luxury of WRs Nacua & Kupp because both can catch almost everything thrown their way. Opposing DEFs have to pick who they want to double cover which leaves other receivers open to catch passes. NYJ have been a disappointment to say the least. NYJ will certainly look different in 2025. The NYJ DEF has only 4INTs which could mean a lot of things but here is the matchup, LAR #9 PASS OFF vs NYJ #5 PASS DEF. Can NYJ cover all those receivers on LAR? BUFF couldn’t. NYJ need players on both sides of the ball and a coaching staff that the players can believe in. Also, NYJ need a QB and by winning games, they lessen their shot at the #1 PICK. No one expects NYJ to win this game and I certainly don’t knowing that LAR needs to keep winning to make the playoffs. LAR cannot have any turnovers and they must pressure NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers. By the way, NYJ LB Hasson Reddick continues to be invisible. Lay the points here as LAR should win by 7-10pts.  

THE PICK: LAR-3

Philadelphia Eagles (12-2), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (9-5), (8-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (5-2) ATS            WASH+3

LW, PHILLY was the recipient of a BIG PITT fumble that changed the game in PHILLY’s favor. The score was 20-13 and PITT was driving and was right outside the redzone. PITT RB Najee Harris fumbled a perfect toss and PHILLY recovered. I liked PITT +5 ½ and I thought PITT would score on this drive. But, PHILLY recovered and drove the length of the field for a td and a 27-13 lead which put a dagger in the hearts of PITT. PITT would only get the ball 1x more and ended up punting as PHILLY held the ball for the last 10:29 to win 27-13. It would have been a different game at 20-20 but PHILLY got lucky and managed to keep the ball out of PITT’s hands. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley had an off game rushing just for 65yds. But, PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts passed for 25/32 for 290yds and had a lost fumble that fortunately PITT did not turn into points. LW, WASH was ROAD FAV-7 @NO. It was looking good as WASH was leading 17-0 in the 3^rd qtr. But, as fate would have it, WASH got sloppy on OFF & going forward only scored 3pts. While NO mounted a comeback and scored 2tds & 2fgs and almost won outright by just missing a 2pt conversion. WASH ended up winning 20-19. A few suspect plays by WASH and some dropped passes contributed to WASH almost blowing this game. WASH HC Dan Quinn is showing that he can’t close things out and is lucky to be where he is. L17 PHILLY @WASH, PHILLY 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs WASH, FAV 18-13 ATS. L35 PHILLY vs WASH, ROAD 23-12 ATS. PHILLY 16-24 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 8-10 ATS before DAL. PHILLY 43-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 40-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 29-43 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 12-5 ATS off SU win 13>pts vs div opp. PHILLY 5-11 ATS in 1^st of BB div gms. WASH 19-23 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. WASH 8-15 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. WASH 26-42 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 42-40 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 25-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 619 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 10-4 ATS w/revnege vs. >.500 div opp off DD SU win. WASH 8-1 ATS as a HOME DOG <6pts vs .600>opp. WASH 14-18 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400>opp. WASH 11-9 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. PHILLY has a legitimate shot at the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs due to the loss by DET. PHILLY’s schedule is light considering they play @WASH & HOME vs DAL & then NYG. PHILLY has found success after starting the season 2-2 and not looking like the team was in sync. But they have incorporated RB Saquon Barkley very well and he has been able to let QB Jalen Hurts play his game. Hurts doesn’t need to throw a home run pass every time because he has Barkley taking a lot of pressure off of him when he is rushing well. As for WASH, they are still finding themselves and have yet to beat a good team. WASH has lost to every team that they have played that was >.500. WASH has lost to TB, BALT, PITT, PHILLY & the catastrophe vs DAL. WASH & PHILLY met in wk 11 @PHILLY on TNF and PHILLY won 26-18. In that game, WASH was up 10-6 going into the 4^th qtr but PHILLY had seen enough and scored 3straight tds to lead the game 26-10 before WASH got a dummy td with :28 left to end the game and the PHILLY win 26-18. There is no revenge factor here because PHILLY is focused on getting that #1 seed which is in reach. PHILLY #6 TOT OFF vs WASH #11 TOT DEF. Again, who has WASH played and beaten? PHILLY #1 RUSH OFF vs WASH #25 RUSH DEF. We all know that PHILLY will use RB Barkley as much as possible but PHILLY needs to keep him fresh for the playoffs. PHILLY will use other players and other plays to attack WASH. Lay the points here as PHILLY should win by 2tds.    

THE PICK: PHILLY-3

Arizona Cardinals (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-11), (6-8) ATS, (2-6) HOME, (4-4) ATS                            CAR+4 ½  

LW, ARZ @HOME beat NE, so what. I liked NE+6 just to kee the game close. NE has problems and ARZ needed the game just to stay in the hunt for the NFC WEST crown and gain a spot in the playoff. ARZ was up 13-3 and coasted to a 30-17 win. ARZ RB James Conner was on fire as he rushed for 110yds & 2tds on 16carries. ARZ QB Kyler Murray threw for 23/3, 224yds, 0turnovers and spread the ball around to 8different receivers. The score was ARZ 30-10 when NE added a dummy td with 1:55 left to make the final score seem closer. LW, CAR-2 ½ @HOME vs DAL was a complete laydown. CAR QB Bryce Young reverted back to his old ways and had 2INTs & 2lost fumbles. CAR was never a threat to DAL as DAL converted the CAR turnovers into an extra 10pts. The score was DAL 27-7 in the 4^th qtrs when CAR scored a td and DAL added a fg to make the final score DAL 30-14. CAR QB Bryce Young was sacked 6x and the CAR DEF couldn’t stop the DAL rush game that amounted to 211yds on 40carries. L13 ARZ vs CAR, ARZ 3-10 SU & 2-9-2 ATS incl ARZ @CAR, ARZ 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS. ARZ 15-9 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. ARZ 11-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ARZ 26-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 33-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 12-11 ATS before LAR. ARZ 1-11 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CAR 18-18-1 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. CAR 12-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CAR 37-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 44-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 18-13-1 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 9-6 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 912 ATS before TB. ARZ is still in the hunt for a playoff spot coming out of the NFC WEST but they need to keep winning. After CAR, ARZ plays @LAR & then HOME for SF. Those games will not be easy if all are still eligible for the playoffs. All teams will be giving it their all. CAR is just playing spoiler, if that. After ARZ, CAR plays @TB @ then @ATL. TB is playing well as of late but you never know and they could be beaten. ATL is done whether they know it or not and no one fears them. Michael Penix will probably be the QB for ATL in that game and ATL will probably be fighting for their playoff life. But this week, CAR needs to show that there are guys worthy of jobs and that they will be a part of the team in 2025. I like CAR in this game to keep it close and possibly get the upset but what worries me is CAR #32 RUSH DEF. Who is stopping ARZ RB James Conner & QB Kyler Murray when they take off? ARZ is coming off a blowout win and may be feeling a little overconfident playing a CAR team whose season has been over since Sept. CAR is coming off a blowout loss where they are thinking that they could actually derail ARZ from its playoff hopes. ARZ is not some great team and the fact that they are a ROAD FAV by so many is an overconfidence that could quickly disappear. I feel strongly that CAR will be in a shootout with CAR and this game will go down to the wire with a fg either way deciding the game. ARZ may be feeling confident but CAR could play spoiler and knock ARZ out of the playoff picture. Take CAR & the points.     

THE PICK: CAR+4 ½

Sunday December 22^nd, 2024 4:00pm

Minnesota Vikings (12-2), (10-3-1) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-1-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (8-6), (7-6-1) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (3-5) ATS         SEA+3

LW on MNF, MINN @HOME dominated CHI. The score doesn’t even tell half the story. CHI QB Caleb Williams seemed to be under pressure on every play. It was the DEF for CHI that kept CHI in this game but they couldn’t do it all. MINN was up 13-0 at the half and held CHI without a td until 5:19 in the 4^th qtr. At that time the score was MINN 27-12. The only thought I had about that was if CHI might somehow get a back door cover. There was no way CHI was winning this game. MINN added a fg @ 1:12 left for good measure and even the cover was out of reach. The final score was MINN 30-12. MINN RBs Aaron Jones & Cam Akers combined for 110yds & 2tds on 28carries. LW, I liked GB-2 ½ @SEA on SNF. SEA was no match for GB and in the process SEA QB Geno Smith injured his knee and was replaced by Sam Howell. The SEA DEF had no answer for GB RB Josh Jacobs who rushed for 94yds & 1td on 26carries. The score was GB 20-3 at the half and GB coasted to a 30-13 win. The SEA DEF had no answer for the GB OFF which seemed to be in control for most of the game. L10 MINN vs SEA, MINN 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS. MINN 26-9-2 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 10-7 ATS after CHI. MINN 12-9 ATS before GB. MINN 33-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 34-44-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 11-11 SU & 15-7 ATS L22 AWAY vs non-div outdoors. MINN 19-6-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 15-3 ATS off SU div win vs .600<non-div opp. MINN 7-0 ATS as a FAV <4pts off DD SU win. SEA 12-11 ATS In 2^nd of BB HGs. SEA 47-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 49-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 9-9 ATS L18 as a HOME DOG. SEA 13-5 ATS vs .500> non-div conf opp. MINN needs this game to stay toe-to-toe with DET. After this game, MINN plays GB & then @DET. A doozy of a schedule but it will show everyone what kind of team MINN is. But it will not matter if they don’t win this game @SEA. Right now, SEA QB Geno Smith is questionable & so is RB Kenneth Walker. Walker is a workhorse and Geno has been playing better than his previous years with other teams. SEA is also still in the playoff hunt in the NFC WEST but they too have to keep winning. SEA plays @CHI next week and that is winnable all over as CHI has absolutely no O-LINE. SEA should get 9sacks in the game @CHI. But the last game of the season @LAR may decide who goes to the playoffs from the NFC WEST & who goes HOME. But again, SEA has to keep winning. SEA will try to run the ball in this game to take a lot of pressure off of QB Sam Howell (if he starts)vs MINN. But, MINN is very good vs the run, MINN #2 RUSH DEF. CHI did get over 100yds rushing LW @MINN but it was a lot of garbage time yds and the game was well out of reach. MINN will stop the run vs SEA and put it all on Sam Howell who will make mistakes as Geno Smith will be watching from the sidelines. Knee injuries are no joke and if not treated properly it can have long term effects. On the side of caution, I see Geno not playing this game. Since MINN has something to play for and needs to be toe-to-toe with DET, I see them steamrolling SEA. Look for MINN QB Sam Darnold to play well and get help from the RB duo of Jones & Akers. Jones will get less carries to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Lay the points here as MINN rolls. 

THE PICK: MINN-3

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11), (7-6-1) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), (4-10) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-4) ATS          JAGS+1

ON MNF, LV @HOME had a chance to steal a victory from ATL because ATL was playing not to lose. LV was down 15-3 and LV scored a td with 2:54 to go to make the score ATL 15-9. Well ATL couldn’t get a 1^st down and LV had the ball with 1:50 left. LV drove down the field to the ATL 35yd line but was unsuccessful on 2Hail Mary throws and that was the game, ATL 15-9. The LV DEF had no answer for the ATL run game that amassed 168yds on 37 carries. But, on a positive note, the LV DEF only gave up 1td to ATL. LW, JAGS @HOME were in a battle with NYJ. This was a game that went back and forth but wouldn’t you know it, the DEF for JAGS disappeared in the 4^th qtr and NYJ scored a td to win 32-25. The lag JAGS DEF, the worst in the league, made NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers look like he was in his PRIME with a comeback win that the JAGS let slip away. JAGS QB Mac Jones had 2costly INTS that aided NYJ in their win. L8 JAGS vs LV, JAGS 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. JAGS 12-7 ATS before TENN. JAGS 38-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 28-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 5-15 ATS vs AFC WEST. LV 9-11-1 AATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LV 31-43-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 20-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LV 10-7-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. LV 13-11 ATS vs .333<conf opp. LV 3-10 ATS as a FAV off SU loss vs <.500opp. LV 4-8-1 ATS after MNF. LV 6-14 ATS @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. This is certainly a game of who really cares? If you noticed, there were a lot of empty seats at Allegiant Stadium on MNF vs ATL. LV Owner Marc Davis who is no Al Davis even if it’s his son, better start doing something to turn the team around. They haven’t been relevant in 20 years. LV desperately needs a QB and LV is poised for the #1 spot in the NFL Draft but first they have to keep losing because NYG is certainly in the running. LV was in a position to pull out a victory on MNF because ATL was playing not to lose and lose is almost what they did. I give LV QB Desmond Ridder a lot of credit for getting LV in that position at the end of the game. As for JAGS, they have the QB that they want. It is just a matter of getting other pieces that fill in the voids. JAGS DEF is pretty bad and they should look to fill in the gaps in the off-season. JAGS #32 TOT DEF w/ #24 RUSH DEF & #32 PASS DEF. JAGS can’t stop anyone on DEF and it shows. Will JAGS HC Doug Pederson be back? That’s another BIG question as well. For LV, is HC Antonio Pierce the answer? Can he develop a young QB and groom him to be good in the NFL? Tom Brady, who is part owner of LV has said that he will be involved in that department, so we’ll see. As for this game I see LV getting the best of JAGS because the JAGS DEF is so bad. All LV has to do is run the ball and then pass it to TE Brock Bowers who will run over the JAGS secondary. This is a PICK’EM game as it should be with the winner being the HOME TEAM here.  

THE PICK: LV-1

San Francisco 49ers (6-8), (5-9) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (6-8), (5-7-2) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (2-3-2) ATS                            SF+1 ½  

LW, SF was in a DEF battle @HOME vs LAR. I liked LAR+2 ½ coming off their win vs BUFF even though SF was off a blowout win vs CHI. This would be a battle of fgs as no tds were scored in this game. The score was 3-3 at the half and SF only managed 1more fg as LAR managed 3fgs in the 4^th qtr to win 12-6. SF did not have a good game overall and needs to get going if they want to be part of the playoff picture. LW, I liked MIA+3 @HOU because MIA needed the game to be relevant. They lost because MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa had 3INTs & 1 lost fumble that HOU turned into 7pts which was the difference in the game as HOU won 20-12. The running game for MIA didn’t work for MIA and to top it off  MIA QB Jaylen Waddle sustained a knee injury that makes him questionable for the game vs SF & WR Grant DuBose sustained a head injury and was rushed to the hospital. He certainly will not be back for the next game vs SF. It was another lost opportunity for MIA to get a firm hold on their future playoff contention. L6 SF vs MIA, SF 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS. SF 9-4 ATS after LAR. SF 32-45 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 28-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 10-18 ATS w/rest. SF 5-2 ATS as a non-conf DOG <6pts. SF 14-16-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 8-3 ATS as a non-conf DOG. SF 10-1 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss vs non-conf opp. SF 1-7 ATS w/rest vs <.500opp. MIA 36-46-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 29-56-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA can’t beat anyone and they are the only ones who don’t know it but, their season is over. There is a lot of talent on this team but, they can’t win in cold weather and they can’t beat anyone that is good. The team has absolutely no discipline and it is obvious when they play. Don’t be surprised if MIA HC Mike Daniels is fired after the season. As for SF, the O-LINE has been breaking down and QB Brock Purdy is getting sacked more often. SF has had devastating injuries that have put a 3^rd stringer in positions that they normally would not be in. Still, they are a talented bunch. SF OT Trent Williams is scheduled to return for this game and he is a difference maker. SF RB Isaac Guerendo is talented but he is the 3^rd string RB. He is filling in nicely to try to take some of the pressure off of QB Brock Purdy. Both teams are playing for some kind of playoff spot because both are still mathematically in it. SF has a better chance than MIA but their schedule is rough. SF plays DET on MNF then @ARZ who are also battling for a playoff spot. MIA has shot themselves in the foot but after SF, MIA plays @CLEV & then @NYJ. There is hope for MIA but they can’t lose anymore games. I think SF will win in a very close game and turnovers will be costly for each team. SF has a better DEF no matter what the stats say. MIA will lose and their season will officially be over. Take SF in almost a PICK’EM game.      

THE PICK: SF +1 ½

Sunday December 22^nd, 2024 8:20pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6), (9-5) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (1-6) ATS                               DAL+3 ½  

LW, DAL beat CAR in CAR, so what. Looking back, CAR was the FAV, go figure. After the game, DAL was celebrating like they just won the SuperBowl. DAL just beat a 3-10 team that played like a 3-10 team. Yes, DAL played a good game but CAR contributed heavily to the 30-14 DAL win. CAR QB Bryce Young had 2INTS & 2 lost fumbles that resulted in 10pts for DAL. DAL had one mistake, a fumble, that led to a td by CAR. DAL also had a missed fg. This game was actually DAL 10-7 at the half and it was anyone’s game. But CAR had more turnovers than tds in the 2^nd half and DAL got their running game going which saw DAL rush for 211yds on 40carries in this game. LW, TB+3 was @LAC. I liked TB in this game because LAC hasn’t beaten anyone good and TB was a decent team that could score points. LAC was actually leading 17-13 at the half but TB slammed the door on LAC and scored 27unanswered points while allowing 0pts by LAC. TB QB Baker Mayfield was unstoppable for 22/27, 288yds, 4tds & 1INT. The 1INT by Mayfield did lead to an LAC td but it was his only mistake. TB rushed for 223yds on 39carries which opened up the passing lanes for Mayfield. TB WR Mike Evans had a great day catching 9passes for 159yds & 2tds. The TB DEF also shut down the LAC rushing game to 32yds on 11carries. LAC scored 0pts in the 2^nd half in the 40-17 TB win. L10 TB vs DAL, TB 3-7 SU & 4-5-1 ATS. TB 14-17 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. TB 6-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. TB 3-11 ATS as a FAV on SNF. TB 13-17-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. TB 30-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 30-35-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 34-30-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 9-9-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. TB 4-14-1 ATS before CAR. TB 12-20-2 ATS off DD Su win. TB 7-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs <.500 non-div opp. 10-5 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DAL 20-18-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 13-19 ATS as a DOG on SNF. DAL 10-14 ATS before PHILLY. DAL 12-12-1 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. DAL 32-39-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 29-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 9-15-1 ATS L25 vs NFC SOUTH. DAL 8-1 ATS as a HOME DOG >1pt off SU DOG win. DAL 10-3 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.600opp. DAL 4-12 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins(last as a DOG). DAL 12-14 ATS vs opp off SUATS wins. There is false hope for DAL. They think they have a shot at the playoffs, they don’t. They haven’t beaten anyone decent and have found ways to lose even when they were healthy. They are playing out the string and should look to make some real changes in the off-season. RB Rico Dowdle is quietly showing that he can be relied on to carry the load at rushing. As long as the O-LINE does the job, he can do a lot to take pressure of off whoever the DAL QB will be by getting quality yards. TB has a goal and that is to win the NFC SOUTH. They can do it because their schedule is not that difficult. TB plays @HOME vs CAR & NO after DAL. Neither CAR or NO is playing above .500 and TB has already beaten both of them. The last game vs CAR went into OT and TB almost lost but CAR is bad and they in turn beat themselves. TB QB Baker Mayfield is having a fine season. He still throws INTs but he is a true gunslinger and will always try to go for the knockout punch. On DEF, TB can stop the run, TB #11 RUSH DEF. But they can get beat by the pass. However, TB has been finding ways to win and has beaten PHILLY & DET this season. TB is also finding out that they may have a 1-2 RB punch of their own in Bucky Irving & Rachaad White. This would take a lot of pressure off of Mayfield who always feels the need to win the game by himself. For this game, TB has to stay focused because this could be a game that gets away from them because DAL always has that extra confidence when playing @HOME, even though they haven’t been winning @HOME this season. I like TB laying the points as TB should win by at least a td. 

THE PICK: TB-3 ½

Monday December 23^rd, 2024 8:15pm

New Orleans Saints (5-9), (6-8) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS                               NO+14

LW, WASH took NO too lightly @NO and it almost cost them the game. I liked WASH-7 in this game and who wouldn’t. WASH was up 17-0 in the 3^rd qtr and it looked like NO was dead in the water. But WASH is not used to winning and the WASH DEF went to sleep. NO scored a td, fg, fg & td on their last 4possessions and suddenly NO was setting up for a 2pt conversion to go for the win. It was now 20-19 and NO just missed on the 2pt conversion and the game was over, WASH 20-19. WASH played crappy after the BIG lead and almost deserved to lose. They dropped passes, went conservative and missed an easy fg which would have put the game out of reach. Give NO credit for making the comeback with a backup QB. LW on SNF, I liked GB-2 ½ @ SEA. SEA didn’t put up much of a fight because GB is a much better team and they are still in reach of the #1 seed in the NFC. GB needs to keep staying sharp and winning. GB knocked out SEA QB Geno Smith and the game was essentially over. GB sacked the 2 SEA QBs, 7x and intercepted them 2x. GB was up 23-6 in the 4^th qtr when SEA & GB exchanged tds and the final score was GB 30-13. GB QB Jordan Love spread the ball around to 7different receivers in this game. L10 NO vs GB, NO 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS. NO 11-14-1 ATS on MNF. NO 2-9-1 ATS L12 on MNF. NO 2-4-1 ATS AWAY on MNF. NO 40-31-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 31-29-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 17-10 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NO 11-3 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. NO 6-2 ATS as a non-div DOG 7>pts. NO 15-4 ATS vs .666>conf opp. NO 17-3 ATS as a DOG vs .666>opp. NO 10-2 ATS off ATS win vs opp off DD SU win. NO 17-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. GB 5-8 ATS before MINN. GB 11-11 ATS as a FAV on MNF. GB 43-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 64-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 1-7ATS @HOME off DD SU non-div win. GB 5-12-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. The NO season has been over for some time and QB Derek Carr will probably not play the rest of the season because of his fractured hand. RB Alvin Kamara is questionable with his groin and a lot of starters are banged up. NO QB Spencer Rattler will probably start as Jake Haener will be the backup. GB is not WASH. Plus, GB is a much better team than WASH and has something BIG to play for. They need to keep winning to have a shot at a better playoff spot. After NO, GB plays @MINN which will not be easy because MINN is fighting for the #1 NFC seed and needs to keep winning too. Then GB plays @HOME vs CHI which at that time GB’s playoff spot may already be locked in. Three of GB’s four losses have been to NFC NORTH opponents, DET 2x & MINN. The NFC NORTH has become a tough division with the resurgence of MINN & DET. But GB is a well rounded team on OFF & DEF and has players that can lead a charge. If GB didn’t need to keep winning, this may be a close game but @HOME on MNF, GB will take it to NO in blowout fashion. GB CANNOT take this game lightly and play sloppy. Lay the points here as GB SHOULD win 44-10.     

THE PICK: GB-14