2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 2
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 2 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday September 12th, 2024 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (1-0), (0-0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS BUFF+2
LW, BUFF @HOME was down 17-3 in the second qtr to ARZ. BUFF then woke up and QB Josh Allen started to get focused. He threw for 2tds while rushing for 2tds and BUFF won 34-28. Allen took some hits running the ball and injured his non-throwing hand. BUFF RB James Cook took some pressure off of Allen with 71 yds rushing. LW, MIA @ HOME was also down in their game, 14-0 to the JAGS before they decided to wake up. The MIA DEF held JAGS to 3pts the rest of the way for a come from behind 20-17 win. MIA won it with a fg with :00 in the 4th qtr. MIA WRs Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle both had 100yd games. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for 23/37 for 338yds, 1td & 0INTs. L17 BUFF @ MIA, BUFF 9-8 SU & 9-8 ATS. L30 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 17-12-1 ATS, 1NL. L33 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 18-14 ATS, 1NL. L14 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 12-2 SU & 9-4 ATS 1NL. BUFF 3-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. BUFF 7-7 ATS L14 on TNF. BUFF 3-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. BUFF 30-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BUFF 30-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. BUFF 26-22 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. MIA 4-6 ATS L10 on TNF. MIA 11-7-1 ATS, 1NL in 2nd of BB HGs. MIA 26-28-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 23-22 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. MIA 28-24-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. MIA 6-3 ATS L9 as a div HF 5<pts. MIA 12-5 ATS @HOME w/div revenge. MIA 7-1 ATS as a div HF w/revenge. There should be some revenge on the minds of MIA in this game. In 2023, BUFF beat MIA HOME & AWAY as MIA just couldn’t get it done. The DEF needs to keep BUFF QB Josh Allen in the pocket and not let him take off. This is a chance for MIA to take a small early lead in the AFC EAST while sending a message to BUFF that they can’t be pushed around. The MIA DEF needs to control this game all the way through. MIA needs to get their running game going to take pressure off of Tua and open up the OFF. BUFF needs to stop relying on Allen to get those precious yds. I like the revenge factor here for MIA and the stadium will be going wild. BUFF didn’t look consistent vs ARZ and MIA is just getting started. Take MIA here.
THE PICK: MIA-2
Sunday September 15th, 2024 1:00pm
New Orleans Saints (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NO+6 ½
So what! NO @HOME beat up a very bad CAR team 47-10. This game was over in the 1st qtr with NO up 17-0. NO spread the ball around against a CAR DEF that looked like they weren’t there. NO RB Alvin Kamara rushed for 83 yds which was more than the whole CAR team (58 yds). CAR looked awful. LW, DAL was very dominating @CLEVE on both sides of the ball. DAL took a commanding 20-3 halftime lead on mistakes by CLEV. DAL QB Dak Prescott spread the ball around to 8different receivers and the CLEV DEF looked lost at times. CLEV tried to make some sort of a comeback in the 2nd half but DAL held on nicely and won 33-17. It was 33-10 when CLEV scored a dummy td with :29 left to make the final score a little more respectable. The DAL DEF was all over and sacked CLEV QB Deshaun Watson 6x while intercepting him 2x. L11 NO vs DAL, NO 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS, incl NO @ DAL, NO 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. NO 29-33-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NO 28-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 27-13 L40 as a RAOD DOG. NO 12-7 ATS after CAR. NO 11-0 ATS after scoring 40>pts vs opp off SU win. NO 16-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 40>pts. NO 10-2 ATS off ATS win vs opp off DD SU win. NO 17-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. DAL 12-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DAL 32-37-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 26-29 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DAL 8-13-1 ATS L22 vs NFC SOUTH. DAL 3-13 ATS as a conf FAV off SU non-conf win. DAL is on a mission this season otherwise they will be doing a little house cleaning. NO had a nice game LW but it was against a sorry CAR team. They will come back down to Earth this week @DAL. I expect the DAL DEF to put enormous pressure on NO QB Derek Carr at all times and have him making some mistakes that will cost NO dearly. This game has blowout written all over it for the reason that DAL always looks good early in the season and they have a DEF that plays tough. DAL needs to get their running game going a little better so as to take pressure off of Dak Prescott. NO will be doing a lot of head shaking and scratching this weekend. I like DAL here and lay the points.
THE PICK: DAL-6 ½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Detroit Lions (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS TB+7
LW, TB took it to young WASH team on the road, 37-20. TB QB Baker Mayfield had a lot of time to throw and TB had room to run. Mayfield threw for 4tds & 0INTS. Plus, he was sacked only 1x. TB combined rushing was for 112 yds which kept the WASH DEF guessing. LW, DET got away with one on SNF. DET @HOME was up 17-3 early in the 3rd qtr but, the LAR DEF made stops and the LAR OFF finally got going. LAR was up 20-17 late in the 4th qtr but their DEF was tired and gave up a tying fg. In OT, DET won the toss and marched down the field for a rushing td by RB David Montgomery. L11 TB vs DET, DET 6-5 SU & 6-4 ATS, 1NL. However, ROAD 8-3 SU & 8-2 ATS 1NL. TB 33-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TB 32-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TB 30-30-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 16-14 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. TB 10-2 ATS as a RAD DOG after scoring 35>pts. TB 10-17-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 9-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 11-5-2 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB HGs. DET 38-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 40-39 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 5-5 ATS L10 as a FAV 7>pts @HOME vs non-div. DET 3-2 ATS vs opp off SUATS win. DET 9-1 ATS vs non-div opp off SUATS win. DET 3-2-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. This is a revenge game on the minds of TB. TB lost in the divisional round @DET last season after making some mistakes that DET capitalized on. TB had their chances but came up short, 23-31. The DET secondary is a little susceptible to penalties as they showed their inexperience LW vs LAR. Newly acquired CB Carlton Davis may look for some revenge of his own playing against his former team. He does bring veteran leadership to a young secondary. TB traded Davis to DET in the off-season. DET has a nice combo for RBs with David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs and they are hard to stop. But I think DET wins this game by a closer margin than the spread suggests. TB has revenge on their mind knowing that they made a few mistakes last season in the div round that they would like back. This year, they make some adjustments. It should be a good game and may go down to the wire with DET winning by a fg. Take TB & the points.
THE PICK: TB+7
Indianapolis Colts (0-1), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS GB+3
LW, INDY @HOME went toe-to-toe with HOU but lost 29-27. INDY QB Anthony Richardson had a nice game in his comeback from shoulder surgery last season. However, INDY came up just a little short in the shootout with HOU. The INDY DEF did give up a whopping 213 yds rushing combined to HOU which needs to find a way to stop the run. LW, GB got a big hit. GB QB Jordan Love suffered a sprained his MCL and will definitely miss a few weeks of action. GB lost in a shootout in Brazil to PHILLY. GB was up 19-17 at the half but couldn’t stop PHILLY in the 2nd half as PHILLY won 34-29. GB only managed to turn Jalen Hurts 3turnovers into 9pts. That was definitely the difference. Had they turned two of those in tds instead of fgs, GB would have won easily. L5 INDY vs GB, INDY 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. INDY 12-13 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 12-7 ATS after HOU. INDY 31-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. INDY 32-30 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. INDY 26-14-1 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 15-7 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. GB 5-6 ATS L11 as a HOME DOG. GB36-28-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 30-18 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. GB 23-27-2 ATS L52 vs AFC. GB 17-8-1 ATS w/rest. GB 15-4 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 9-2-1 ATS as a non-div DOG. INDY needs to get their running game going to take the pressure off of Richardson. RB Jonathan Taylor is a very capable RB but INDY needs more so that Richardson is not put in a situation like the one that caused him to get injured last season. Richardson also needs to work on his accuracy. Richardson’s 9/19 completions will not cut it on a consistent basis in the NFL. The INDY DEF needs to shore up their RUN DEF or things will get out of hand. As for GB, QB Malik Willis will start while Love works his way back from his injury. Right now, GB is saying 3-6 weeks. Willis didn’t do much in his two years at TENN and this is really a bounceback game for INDY. GB would have definitely been the FAV here with Love but without him, they are the HOME DOG. INDY needs to play a good game with no mistakes. I like them winning on the road on the bounceback by a td.
THE PICK: INDY-3
New York Jets (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS TENN+4
LW, TENN was leading @CHI 17-3 at the half and decided they had played enough football for today. TENN had two major turnovers that led to 2tds for CHI and ultimately a 24-17 loss. First was a blocked punt returned for td and the second was a INT for a td. The pass should never have been thrown by TENN QB Will Levis and it was an easy run into the endzone. TENN did nothing right in the 2nd half and scored 0pts. CHI didn’t have the greatest OFF showing but the special teams and DEF made up for it in a BIG WAY. NYJ were a dud on MNF. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers said he was a little rusty. Yeah, that’s what people want to hear. And, what’s with NYJ HC Robert Saleh keeping CB Sauce Gardner out of the game while SF was driving down the field? SF was dominant once they got going. NYJ DEF could stop SF RB Jordan Mason who rushed for 147yds and 1td without RB Christian McCaffrey in the game. The NYJ DEF held SF to 6fgs & 2tds but have to find a way to make stops and get the opposing OFF off the field. A 32-19 loss for NYJ will not cut it. L10 NYJ vs TENN, NYJ 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS. NYJ 10-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYJ 9-10-1 ATS before NE. NYJ 2-9-2 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 28-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYJ 18-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 18-12 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. TENN 8-14 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. TENN 35-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TENN 39-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TENN 4-18 ATS vs non-div opp off SU loss >10pts. There is a lot of pressure on the NYJ to succeed this season. They know it and everyone knows it, otherwise they will clean house. Rodgers will play better this week as the rest of the team off the bounceback. TENN has a problem with their OFF, their QB is still learning and making mistakes. TENN has a run game but NYJ DEF needs to stop it upfront and put it all on the shoulders of QB Will Levis. Hopefully that’s what they do. Look for an INT from CB Sauce Gardner in this game. Both teams are coming off a loss but NYJ will get the needed win. Lay the points here as NYJ bounces back in a BIG WAY.
THE PICK: NYJ-4
San Francisco 49ers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS MINN+5 ½
LW, MINN on the road beat NYG. I have to say a BIG SO WHAT because NYG QB Daniel Jones doesn’t care and played like it. But, in fairness to MINN, they played a well rounded game and did what they had to do and that was, win the game. MINN QB Sam Darnold actually played a decent game and MINN could have probably scored more points. LW on MNF, SF played their game vs NYJ. No McCaffrey, no problem. RB Jordan Mason rushed for 147yds & 1td and the NYJ had no answer. SF QB Brock Purdy spread the ball around nicely and SF had 0turnovers. They stymied the NYJ OFF all night for 32-19 win. It was 32-13 when NYJ got a dummy td with :25 left to make the final score a little closer. L8 SF vs MINN, MINN 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS incl MINN (H) vs SF, MINN 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. SF 18-13 ATS l31 as a ROAD FAV. SF 18-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SF 30-33 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SF 38-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 7-9 ATS before LAR. MINN 9-6 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. MINN 8-7 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MINN 36-28-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MINN 32-33-4 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 7-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 2-8 ATS as a non-div DOG after allowing 10<pts. MINN 5-9 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. MINN 24-17 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 4-0 ATS L4 off DD ATS win. The key for MINN to win this game or even stay close is their run game. If they can establish a run game that will take pressure off of QB Sam Darnold then he can mix things up all the way down the field. MINN needs to keep the SF DEF on their toes. The SF DEF is talented but, they can be beaten. In week 7 of last season, these two teams played on MNF with MINN as a DOG+7. Well, MINN came out swinging and beat SF 22-17. Does SF have revenge on their minds? MINN HC Kevin O’Connell came out with a great game plan and stuck to it, he should be able to do it again this week. The MINN DEF has to be on their toes as well this week because SF is not NYG and they have OFF talent all over. They have to pressure SF QB Brock Purdy because he can’t just sit there and pick them apart. The MINN DEF needs to be aggressive. I like MINN @HOME here with the points. It should be a good game and could actually go down to the wire.
THE PICK: MINN+5 ½
Seattle Seahawks (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NE+3
LW, SEA @HOME beat a rookie QB in DEN QB Bo Nix, so what! DEN is a young team and young teams make mistakes but SEA beat DEN by 6pts, 26-20. I liked DEN +5 but, had Nix & CO gotten better together, SEA would have lost. SEA QB Geno Smith didn’t look that great and he ran for a td when no one was looking. The SEA DEF still gave up 99yds combined rushing to DEN. LW, NE was a BIG DOG +9 ½ @CINNCY. I liked NE because of two things. First, the NE DEF is underrated like I have stated before and second, CINNCY always gets off to a very slow start and has to play dynamite football the rest of the way. If you review the game, NE was dominant on both sides of the ball and NE QB Jacoby Brissett managed a decent game. NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 120yds and 1td which took a lot of pressure off of Brissett. NE could have scored more points in this game but they did what they needed to do to win, 16-10. L5 SEA vs NE, SEA 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. SEA 16-17-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 38-26-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 28-28-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 6-9-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. NE 11-9-2 ATS before NYJ. NE 19-21 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NE 25-34-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NE 12-4-1 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 19-6 ATS off non-div DOG win. The DEF for NE is underrated and most teams don’t anticipate the great job that they do at stopping opposing OFFs. Even though NE didn’t win much in 2023, the DEF was a bright spot. This continues in 2024 as they overwhelmed CINNCY LW. SEA QB Geno Smith is a guy that doesn’t work well under pressure and NE will be bringing plenty of it. I look for Geno to make some mistakes that cost SEA dearly and NE take advantage of. I like that NE is the HOME DOG here and that they are being overlooked. They get a lot of value that way. Look for NE RB Stevenson to get a lot of carries to loosen the load on Brissett. SEA comes back down to Earth after beating a rookie QB. Take NE and the points here.
THE PICK: NE+3
New York Giants (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Washington Commanders (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NYG+1 ½
LW, NYG didn’t do anything right @HOME vs MINN. MINN looked good while NYG looked awful. NYG QB Daniel Jones threw a PICK6 and MINN won 28-6. NYG managed only 2fgs and had 74yds rushing. NYG had no umph in their game. LW, WASH was manhandled @TB. WASH played catchup the whole game to no avail, 37-20. WASH QB Jayden Daniels rushed for 88yds and threw for 184yds. It felt like the DEF for WASH wasn’t even on the field. TB had their way with them. L17 NYG @ WASH, NYG 12-5 SU & 12-5 ATS. L30 NYG vs WASH, DOG 19-11 ATS. NYG 8-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NYG 30-24-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYG 32-32-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 24-22-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. NYG 5-12 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 28-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. WASH 21-39 ATS @HOME in SEPT. WASH 22-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. WASH 14-9 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH has a lot to learn before they turn things around. The NYG team has talented players, they just need to step up. QB Daniel Jones is like the titanic because he is guaranteed his money for this season and NYG are just stuck with him. But if he wants to play longer than this season in the NFL he needs to play smarter and better, not like he doesn’t care. Fortunately for him, NYG plays WASH. They are young and will go through growing pains. Both teams were whalloped last week but only NYG has the talent to actually bounceback. I like NYG here because they have some playmakers who can make some plays and win some games. This game may be close but, NYG should win outright.
THE PICK: NYG+1 ½
Los Angeles Chargers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CAR+5 ½
LW, LAC was @HOME vs LV. In the 1st half, LAC was just getting adjusted to the beginning of the season and the score was LV 7-6 at the half. LAC got running in the 2nd half and dominated LV on both sides of the ball for a 22-10 win. The run game got going as LAC RB J.K. Dobbins had under 10 yards in the 1st half and rushed for about 125yds in the 2nd half with 1td. The LV DEF barely touched LAC QB Justin Herbert with 1sack and he threw for a td too. Final score: LAC 22-10. The LAC DEF also manufactured 3turnovers. LW, CAR was demoralized and destroyed by NO @NO, 47-10. What can you say? Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong for CAR. They were down 17-0 in the 1st qtr en rout to a 47-10 blowout. This is a team that looked bad on both sides of the ball. Now they face a team with a new attitude and an HC in Jim Harbaugh that plays very focused football. L5 LAC vs CAR, CAR 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. LAC 13-16-3 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 9-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAC 30-24-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAC 29-32-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 10-8-2 ATS after LV. LAC 6-17-2 ATS before KC. CAR 14-15-2 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CAR 6-11-1 ATS after NO. CAR 21`-27-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CAR 25-25-2 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 17-11-1 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 14-17 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 9-5 ATS @HOEm off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 2-10 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 1-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. Usually teams that get their butts kicked like this in a particular week make adjustments and look a lot better the next week. But in the case of CAR, they don’t have a lot going for them. The LAC DEF is stacked and I don’t see CAR getting many yards on the ground. This means that CAR QB Bryce Young will have to do it in the air and the LAC secondary will be waiting. This could mean that this game has blowout written all over it. Remember, CAR has a brand new HC, Dave Canales and he’s never been an HC before. This is all new to him. Welcome to the NFL kid. Lay the points here as LAC should win in a blowout as long as they don’t beat themselves with turnovers and missed opportunities.
THE PICK: LAC-5 ½
Cleveland Browns (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CLEV+3
LW, CLEV QB Deshaun Watson looked awful. Is he still hurt? It didn’t help that the DAL DEF was so overwhelming either. CLEV couldn’t get started and DAL had a 20-3 halftime lead. CLEV played catchup to no avail. Watson had 2INTS and was sacked 6x. This game was DAL 33-10 when CLEV scored a dummy td to make the final score 33-17. HC Kevin Stefanski has a squad that was predicted to go deep in the playoffs but this team did not look like that team on SUN. The DEF gave up 102 yds rushing and created 0turnovers. I don’t know if they will find the answers and turn it around in time for JAGS. LW, JAGS were up 14-0 @MIA and looking good. JAGS were up 17-7, but then MIA woke up. JAGS fumbled in the 3rd qtr and MIA turned it into 7pts. JAGS did nothing in the 2nd half and lost 20-17. The run game for JAGS was decent with 128yds rushing but the turnover by RB Travis Ettienne was costly. The JAGS DEF did their job but the OFF has to get it done. L10 CLEV vs JAGS, CLE 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS. CLEV 34-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CLEV 21-17 ATS AWAY in SEPT. JAGS 31-28 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. JAGS 23-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. JAGS 15-7 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 8-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. This is a bounceback game for both teams but CLEV doesn’t look good and JAGS didn’t play all that badly last week @MIA. JAGS have the luxury of being at HOME after the loss while CLEV has to travel. I think JAGS get back on track while CLEV is still trying to figure it out. On paper, CLEVE looks like a really god team but they were manhandled by DAL on both sides of the ball. Now they face a team that is looking to win one and CLEV needs to figure it out quickly. I like JAGS in bounceback and laying the fg.
THE PICK: JAGS-3
Las Vegas Raiders (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS LV+8 ½
LW, BALT on TNF @KC fell into their own trap by having QB Lamar Jackson do most of the rushing. Wasn’t that what RB Derrick Henry was brought in for? Jackson rushed for 122yds while Henry rushed for 46yds. BALT lost the game by inches on a last second throw and catch by BALT WR Isaiah Likely but Likely’s foot was out of bounds by a matter of 1inch. Had the ball been inbounds the game would have went to OT where anything could have happened. But BALT lost 27-20 in a back and forth game. BALT had to play catchup in the 2nd half down 20-10 and never caught up. LW, LV was never in the game @LAC. Even though LV was leading at the half 7-6, the statistics for this game tell a different story. The run game never got going for LV and they relied on the arm of QB Gardner Minshew. Meanwhile LAC had a balance attack and picked their spost against an LV DEF that sometimes looked lost. LAC ran all over the LV DEF for 176yds and 1td. What will happen this week @BALT? LAC opened up the game in the 4th qtr scoring 2tds while as LV scored a 1st qtr td, they only scored a fg the rest of the way for 22-10 loss. L9 LV vs BALT, BALT 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS. LV 12-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LV 33-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LV 37-34 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LV 2-6-2 ATS off SU div ROAD loss. LV 11-6 ATS after LAC. LV 13-9-1 ATS off SU DIV loss. LV 6-3 ATS AWAY off SU div loss. LV 12-7 ATS vs non-div opp when a DOG 7>pts. LV 10-4-1 ATS vs opp w/rest. BALT 35-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 39-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 10-12 ATS vs AFC WEST. BALT 14-5 ATS w/rest vs non-div. BALT 14-6 ATS as a FAV 1>pt w/rest. 9-4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC WEST. BALT 10-7-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. BALT 15-8-1 ATS after losing AWAY & returning HOME. BALT 15-32-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. How will LV do vs a much better team in BALT? The BALT is a much better team that LAC and they have a DEF that will swarm you. If the BALT DEF can get to Mahomes, how many times will they get to Minshew? This game has blowout written all over it as BALT is on the bounceback and RB Henry wants to get going. Lamar Jackson just needs to keep the LV DEF guessing and make sure that DE Maxx Crosby is not near the ball to create any havoc. Lay the points here and enjoy the weather because it will be over early.
THE PICK: BALT-8 ½
Sunday September 15th, 2024 4:00pm
Los Angeles Rams (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS LAR+1
LW, LAR should have won @DET. They were leading late in the game 20-17 but ran out of gas. DET moved down the field, kicked a tying fg at 20-20, then marched down the field in OT and scored a td to win 26-20. Plus LAR Puka Nacua re-injured his knee and will be out for some time. DET was able to run wild vs the LAR DEF without recently retired DL Aaron Donald. This led to DET mostly running in OT and getting the winning score. LW, ARZ was winning @BUFF 17-3, then decided they played enough football for the day. BUFF stormed back and the only real scoring for ARZ was a kickoff return for a td. The BUFF DEF woke up and stymied ARZ when they needed to. But the ARZ DEF let BUFF move up and down the field. The ARZ DEF couldn’t stop BUFF QB Josh Allen when they needed to. Allen had 2rushing tds and 2 throwing tds. L16 LAR @ARZ, LAR 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS. L22 LAR vs ARZ , 15-7 SU & 14-8 ATS. L18 LAR vs ARZ, 14-4 ATS. L26 LAR vs ARZ, ROAD 17-9 ATS. L9 LAR @ ARZ, LAR 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS. LAR 9-15-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAR 11-10 ATS before SF. LAR 28-33-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAR 21-35-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAR 16-19 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. LAR 11-11-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. ARZ 12-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. ARZ 22-32-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 14-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ARZ 21-24-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. ARZ 1-10 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts. LAR needs to shore up their run DEF so to put pressure on opposing QBs. Otherwise, teams will be able to do what they want against LAR. ARZ has typically not played well vs LAR. LAR beat ARZ both times in 2023 and three out of the last four. They may be some revenge on the minds of ARZ but they don’t have what it takes to get past LAR just yet. I like LAR here in a bounceback unless LAR starts beating themselves with bad play and turnovers. LAR should win this game handsomely.
THE PICK: LAR+1
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Denver Broncos (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS DEN+2 ½
LW, the PITT DEF was all over ATL QB Kirk Cousins and their OFF. Cousins looked like a bad rookie and the DEF for PITT held ATL to 1 OFF td in an 18-10 win. But on the OFF side for PITT, they need to do better because they have talent and QB Justin Fields knows better and hopefully will play better. With DE TJ Watt healthy for PITT, the PITT DEF plays better and it actually opens up opportunity for others as Watt gets so much attention. LW @SEA, DEN had their chances and DEN QB Bo Nix saw what it was like to play a real NFL game. SEA wasn’t overwhelming on DEF but Nix made some mistakes including an endzone INT that could have changed the game. DEN didn’t make much happen in this game in the 2nd half even though they were leading at the half, 13-9. I liked DEN+5 in this game because the SEA DEF doesn’t scare me. But, DEN eventually lost 26-20 due to not making anything happen in the 2nd half until very late in the game when it was too late. L8 PITT vs DEN, PITT 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS. PITT 12-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PITT 24-36-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PITT 20-37 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 17-19 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 10-14 ATS L14 vs AFC WEST. PITT 19-191-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 16-25 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 6-2 ATS as a non-div conf FAV <9pts off DD ATS win. PITT 11-22 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. DEN 19-9 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. DEN 32-29-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DEN 20-17 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 20-3 SU & 17-5-1 ATS L23 Home openers vs non-div. In this game, I see PITT shutting down the run game for DEN and putting it all on QB Bo Nix. Whether or not he can handle it in 2nd NFL game remains to be seen. Also, Nix being the leading rusher for DEN has to end because that is a dangerous situation. I like PITT here because of their DEF and the fact they are playing a rookie QB. PITT HC Mike Tomlin has been around and knows how to handle rookie QBs so I think he will know what to do and that is put massive pressure on him and throw different looks on DEF to confuse him. I like the experience factor here and the fact that right now, PITT is a better team even though neither is a playoff caliber team. I like PITT in a game that is decide by a td or less.
THE PICK: PITT-2 ½
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS CINNCY+6
LW on TNF, KC @HOME escaped with a narrow win that could have turned into a disaster. BALT WR Isaiah Likely’s foot was barely out of bounds which would have been a td and tied the game. KC escaped with a win. KC QB Pat Mahomes spread the ball around to 8ifferent receivers. This was without any to newly acquired WR JuJu Smith-Schuster & WR Hollywood Brown. Wait until they get in the mix. KC escaped with a 27-20 win but the OFF was working and the run game will get better. LW, CINNCY @HOME was shocked by NE 16-10. The score doesn’t show how lopsided this game really was. I liked NE+9 ½ because I knew that CINNCY starts slow and NE had nothing to lose and everything to gain. Plus the DEF for NE is underrated and surprised CINNCY QB Joe Burrow with 3sacks and forced the rest of the team to 2lost fumbles. NE rushed for 170yds vs CINNCY, so KC should take notice. L11 CINNCY vs KC, CINNCY 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS. CINNCY 32-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CINNCY 23-25-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CINNCY 20-8 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 18-6-1 ATS vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 12-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 10-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. KC 9-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 6-10 ATS as a FAV in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 2-4 ATS as a non-div FAV <9pts in 2nd of BB HGs. KC 30-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. KC 38-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 2-5 ATS after THRS HOME gm. CINNCY typically gets off to a slow start and they are already looking a little worse for the wear this season. Now they play a KC team that is rested and looking to tweak a few things to make things better for them and tougher for everyone else. Even when KC wins, they look to improve. Having escaped a possible OT game last week which may have even turned into a loss, KC has had plenty of time to look at a few things and especially the almost non-existent DEF of the CINNCY team. Plus, CINNCY can’t stop the run, so look for KC to establish the run early. This will make KC even more dangerous. As for QB Joe Burrow, he looked out of sync LW and needs to get back on track soon. But this week, there is no mercy when KC plays and they will certainly show no mercy here. Lay the points as KC should win by 10points unless CINNCY finds some magic potion and turns things around rather quickly. Burrow may play KC tough but Mahomes has the rings. It doesn’t help either that CINNCY WR Tee Higgins is still bothered by his hamstring.
THE PICK: KC-6
Sunday September 15th, 2024 8:20pm
Chicago Bears (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (1-0), (0-0-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CHI+6 ½
LW, CHI had a nice come from behind win @HOME vs TENN. CHI was down 17-3 at the half but in the comeback vs TENN, CHI had a blocked punt for a td and an INT for a td. They did not have an OFF td. CHI QB Caleb Williams did not have a great 1st game in the NFL but did not turn the ball over. He will get better over time and will be looking for that 1st td. LW, HOU was in a shootout @INDY. HOU certainly was BIG n the ground as RB Joe Mixon led the HOU rushing for 15yds & 1td. Mixon had one of his best games. The game @INDY went back and forth & HOU QB CJ Stroud did not turn the ball over in the game. It ended up HOU 29-27. I liked HOU-2 but thought HOU would win by more. HOU is just getting started. L6 HOU vs CHI, HOU 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS. CHI 10-18 ATS AWAY on SNF. CHI 11-22 ATS as a DOG on SNF. CHI 14-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CHI 23-36 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 34-37 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CHI 14-11-1 ATS AWAY vs non-conf. CHI 1-6 ATS after non-conf HOME gm. HOU 2-5-1 ATS on SNF. HOU 0-1 ATS as a FAV on SNF. HOU 6-8-1 ATS after INDY. HOU 13-11-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 16-19 ATS @HOME in SEPT. HOU 13-12 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 8-6 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 5-5 ATS off SU DIV HOME win vs non-div opp. HOU 2-7 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV off SU win. CHI needs to get their running game on track so that Williams doesn’t feel that he has to do it alone. HOU didn’t give up much to INDY’s running back, Jonathan Taylor but, that doesn’t mean that HOU can’t get burned. CHI has the horses, they just need to get going. HOU has all the tools for the team to be successful. However, they are young and will make some mistakes. Look for some turnovers on both sides but this game will fun. This will be a closer game than the spread suggests but I like HOU to win but not cover.
THE PICK: CHI+6 ½
Monday September 16th, 2024 8:15pm
Atlanta Falcons (0-1), (0-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0), (1-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS ATL+6 ½
LW, PHILLY @HOME (technically) in Brazil put on an OFF show vs GB DEF. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley rushed 24x for 109yds & 2tds. The GB DEF couldn’t stop him. Plus, PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw for 20/34 for 278yds & 2tds. One Big problem was turnovers which Hurts had 2INTS & 1 lost fumble. Fortunately for PHILLY, GB only was able to turn the turnovers into 3fgs and not 3tds. Otherwise the game would be over. PHILLY was down 19-17 at the half but limited GB to only 1td in the 2nd half while getting the win, 34-29. I liked GB+2 ½ but PHILLY kicked a fg with :27 to cover the spread. LW, ATL QB Kirk Cousins looked pretty bad @HOME vs PITT. He was brought in to take ATL to the next level going up, not going down. He looked out of place and at times like a bad rookie. With all that and 2INTS vs PITT, ATL was still in this game all the way to the end. But they couldn’t get out of their own way. ATL was actually winning 10-9 at the half but in the 2nd half, that’s where Cousins had his 2INTS and ATL also punted 3x. The running game has to get going for ATL because Cousins is the type that can’t do it all himself. In any event, the ATL DEF did step up and only allotted PITT 6fgs for an 18-10 win. L12, ATL vs PHILLY, PHILLY 7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS. ATL 6-6 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. ATL 34-32 ATS AWAY in SEPT. ATL 37-34 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ATL 6-11 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss. ATL 7-19-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. PHILLY 8-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 13-3 ATS on MNF off SU win. 18-8 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. PHILLY 15-2 ATS on MNF off SUATS win. PHILLY 23-34 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PHILLY 33-43 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. Do you think PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley is excited about his new team with a much better O-LINE? You bet. This week he plays an ATL team that gave up a lot of yds rushing to PITT in a loss. As for Cousins, he needs to get his act moving forward or he will be the highest price backup in the history of the NFL. Cousins is good at bouncebacks because he knows what’s at stake. ATL has some better competition this week and their DEF will be tested. We’ll see if all the ATL DEF acquisitions are meshing and will be able to make some BIG plays. We all know that Cousins’s record in PRIMETIME is not the greatest but ATL can ill afford to get blown out in this one. I like ATL in a bounceback with the points.
THE PICK: ATL+6 ½